To investigate the effect of typhoon path translation on storm surge augmentation,the storm surge during Typhoon 1909 Lekima in the East China Sea is simulated using Delft 3D.The model sets up three scenarios to analy...To investigate the effect of typhoon path translation on storm surge augmentation,the storm surge during Typhoon 1909 Lekima in the East China Sea is simulated using Delft 3D.The model sets up three scenarios to analyze the path’s effect on storm surge in the Shandong Peninsula Sea by shifting the typhoon path to the east and west.Results show that the areas of maximum storm surge in each scenario are located on both sides of the typhoon path and shift along with its movement.When the typhoon path shifts eastward,the maximum storm surge intensifies at Zhifu Island station 8 hours earlier.Conversely,a westward shift in the typhoon track leads to a maximum storm surge increase at Shidao Island station 12 hours earlier.Other scenarios exhibit minimal deviation from the original route.Typhoons penetrating deep inland can induce substantial storm surges,with the most extensive surge area situated in the western part of the Shandong Peninsula.展开更多
The 2019 Typhoon Lekima triggered extensive landslides in Zhejiang Province.To explore the impact of typhoon paths on the distribution of landslide susceptibility,this study proposes a spatiotemporal zoning assessment...The 2019 Typhoon Lekima triggered extensive landslides in Zhejiang Province.To explore the impact of typhoon paths on the distribution of landslide susceptibility,this study proposes a spatiotemporal zoning assessment framework based on typhoon paths and inner rainbands.According to the typhoon landing path and its rainfall impact range,the study area is divided into the typhoon event period(TEP)and the annual non-typhoon period(ANP).The model uses 14 environmental factors,with the only difference between TEP and ANP being the rainfall index:TEP uses 48-hour rainfall during the typhoon,while ANP uses multi-year average annual rainfall.Modeling and comparative analysis were conducted using six machine learning models including random forest(RF)and support vector machine(SVM).The results show that the distribution pattern of high-risk landslide areas during TEP is significantly correlated with typhoon intensity:when the intensity is level 12,high-risk areas are radially distributed;at levels 10-11,they tend to concentrate asymmetrically along the coast;and when the intensity drops to below level 9,the overall susceptibility decreases significantly.During ANP,the distribution of landslides is relatively uniform with no obvious spatial concentration.Analysis on the factor contribution rate indicates that the rainfall weight in TEP is as high as 32.1%,making it the dominant factor;in ANP,the rainfall weight drops to 13.6%while the influence of factors such as slope and topographic wetness index increases,revealing differences in landslide formation mechanisms between the two periods.This study demonstrates that the spatiotemporal zoning method based on typhoon paths can effectively characterize the spatial susceptibility patterns of landslides and improve disaster identification capabilities under extreme weather conditions.The finally generated annual susceptibility zoning map divides the study area into four types of risk regions,providing a reference for dynamic monitoring and differentiated risk management of landslides in typhoon-prone areas.展开更多
2022年第4号台风“暹芭”在7月2日夜间进入广西后出现突然北折路径,导致风雨预报出现显著偏差,对台风防御工作造成重大影响。本文利用高空、地面、卫星等多源气象观测资料以及欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-range We...2022年第4号台风“暹芭”在7月2日夜间进入广西后出现突然北折路径,导致风雨预报出现显著偏差,对台风防御工作造成重大影响。本文利用高空、地面、卫星等多源气象观测资料以及欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)提供的第5代再分析资料(ECMWF re-analysis 5,ERA5),采用天气学诊断方法对台风路径北折的成因进行深入分析,并运用位涡倾向方程进行定量诊断。结果表明:(1)“暹芭”台风路径北折是大尺度环流形势变化导致的深层引导气流改变与台风内部非对称结构变化共同作用的结果;(2)深层引导气流在路径转折中起主导作用,西太平洋副热带高压的西伸加强、高空西风槽前和南亚高压单体西北侧的西南气流与台风北向出流的相互作用是引导气流改变的关键驱动因素;同时正涡度平流的变化对“暹芭”台风路径北折具有指示性意义;(3)“暹芭”台风呈现非对称结构特征,其内部垂直运动所引发的积云对流对台风北折有重要影响,台风云系形态变化也为台风移向的转折提供指示;(4)位涡倾向方程定量诊断进一步表明,台风在南海移动期间主要受外部大尺度环流形成的引导气流影响,而台风进入内陆后突然北折则是引导气流和台风非对称结构引发垂直运动共同作用的结果;此外“暹芭”台风具有趋向于位势倾向正值中心移动特征。展开更多
A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation(ADCIRC) model for s...A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation(ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie(8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie(8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie(8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature(SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future(the end of the 21 st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie(8509) was also estimated in this study.展开更多
Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determin...Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average, than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting has obvious advantages during the initial 36 h.展开更多
基金supported by the Yantai Science,Technology and Innovation Development Programme(Nos.2023 JCYJ094,2023JCYJ097)the Major Research Grant from the Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.42330406)。
文摘To investigate the effect of typhoon path translation on storm surge augmentation,the storm surge during Typhoon 1909 Lekima in the East China Sea is simulated using Delft 3D.The model sets up three scenarios to analyze the path’s effect on storm surge in the Shandong Peninsula Sea by shifting the typhoon path to the east and west.Results show that the areas of maximum storm surge in each scenario are located on both sides of the typhoon path and shift along with its movement.When the typhoon path shifts eastward,the maximum storm surge intensifies at Zhifu Island station 8 hours earlier.Conversely,a westward shift in the typhoon track leads to a maximum storm surge increase at Shidao Island station 12 hours earlier.Other scenarios exhibit minimal deviation from the original route.Typhoons penetrating deep inland can induce substantial storm surges,with the most extensive surge area situated in the western part of the Shandong Peninsula.
基金supported by the project of National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42371203 and U21A2032)the project Financial Fund of Sichuan Institute of Geological Survey(SCIGSCZDXM-2024008)+1 种基金Sichuan Provincial Science and Technology Department Program Funding(No.2025YFHZ0010)Science and Technology Program of Aba City(NO.R24YYJSYJ0001)。
文摘The 2019 Typhoon Lekima triggered extensive landslides in Zhejiang Province.To explore the impact of typhoon paths on the distribution of landslide susceptibility,this study proposes a spatiotemporal zoning assessment framework based on typhoon paths and inner rainbands.According to the typhoon landing path and its rainfall impact range,the study area is divided into the typhoon event period(TEP)and the annual non-typhoon period(ANP).The model uses 14 environmental factors,with the only difference between TEP and ANP being the rainfall index:TEP uses 48-hour rainfall during the typhoon,while ANP uses multi-year average annual rainfall.Modeling and comparative analysis were conducted using six machine learning models including random forest(RF)and support vector machine(SVM).The results show that the distribution pattern of high-risk landslide areas during TEP is significantly correlated with typhoon intensity:when the intensity is level 12,high-risk areas are radially distributed;at levels 10-11,they tend to concentrate asymmetrically along the coast;and when the intensity drops to below level 9,the overall susceptibility decreases significantly.During ANP,the distribution of landslides is relatively uniform with no obvious spatial concentration.Analysis on the factor contribution rate indicates that the rainfall weight in TEP is as high as 32.1%,making it the dominant factor;in ANP,the rainfall weight drops to 13.6%while the influence of factors such as slope and topographic wetness index increases,revealing differences in landslide formation mechanisms between the two periods.This study demonstrates that the spatiotemporal zoning method based on typhoon paths can effectively characterize the spatial susceptibility patterns of landslides and improve disaster identification capabilities under extreme weather conditions.The finally generated annual susceptibility zoning map divides the study area into four types of risk regions,providing a reference for dynamic monitoring and differentiated risk management of landslides in typhoon-prone areas.
文摘2022年第4号台风“暹芭”在7月2日夜间进入广西后出现突然北折路径,导致风雨预报出现显著偏差,对台风防御工作造成重大影响。本文利用高空、地面、卫星等多源气象观测资料以及欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)提供的第5代再分析资料(ECMWF re-analysis 5,ERA5),采用天气学诊断方法对台风路径北折的成因进行深入分析,并运用位涡倾向方程进行定量诊断。结果表明:(1)“暹芭”台风路径北折是大尺度环流形势变化导致的深层引导气流改变与台风内部非对称结构变化共同作用的结果;(2)深层引导气流在路径转折中起主导作用,西太平洋副热带高压的西伸加强、高空西风槽前和南亚高压单体西北侧的西南气流与台风北向出流的相互作用是引导气流改变的关键驱动因素;同时正涡度平流的变化对“暹芭”台风路径北折具有指示性意义;(3)“暹芭”台风呈现非对称结构特征,其内部垂直运动所引发的积云对流对台风北折有重要影响,台风云系形态变化也为台风移向的转折提供指示;(4)位涡倾向方程定量诊断进一步表明,台风在南海移动期间主要受外部大尺度环流形成的引导气流影响,而台风进入内陆后突然北折则是引导气流和台风非对称结构引发垂直运动共同作用的结果;此外“暹芭”台风具有趋向于位势倾向正值中心移动特征。
基金supported by the Marine Industry Research Special Funds for Public Welfare Projects (No. 200905013)
文摘A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation(ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie(8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie(8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie(8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature(SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future(the end of the 21 st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie(8509) was also estimated in this study.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41475060,41275067,41405060)
文摘Using real-time correction technology for typhoons, this paper discusses real-time correction for forecasting the track of four typhoons during 2009 and 2010 in Japan, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai. It was determined that the short-time forecast effect was better than the original objective mode. By selecting four types of integration schemes after multiple mode path integration for those four objective modes, the forecast effect of the multi-mode path integration is better, on average, than any single model. Moreover, multi-mode ensemble forecasting has obvious advantages during the initial 36 h.
