A baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi--nested grid is applied in marine environmental forecasts. This paper describes the numerical methods of the model including governing equations, finite differencing, spl...A baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi--nested grid is applied in marine environmental forecasts. This paper describes the numerical methods of the model including governing equations, finite differencing, split scheme and time integration.展开更多
A 3-dimensional baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi-nested grid and its initialization are described first. Prediction results are improved by using a simple but effective data assimilation method in whic...A 3-dimensional baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi-nested grid and its initialization are described first. Prediction results are improved by using a simple but effective data assimilation method in which the initial field is adjusted by the sixth hour's typhoon report and the weak-constraint variational principle. Finally someforecast examples made by this typhoon model are given.展开更多
Water vapor, cloud, and surface rainfall budgets associated with the landfall of Typhoon Krosa on 6-8 October 2007 are analyzed based on a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. The model is integrated with...Water vapor, cloud, and surface rainfall budgets associated with the landfall of Typhoon Krosa on 6-8 October 2007 are analyzed based on a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. The model is integrated with imposed zonally-uniform vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal temperature, and vapor advection from NCEP/Global Data Assimilation System （GDAS） data. The simulation data that are validated with observations are examined to study physical causes associated with surface rainfall processes during the landfall. The time- and domain-mean analysis shows that when Krosa approached the eastern coast of China on 6 October, the water vapor convergence over land caused a local atmospheric moistening and a net condensation that further produced surface rainfall and an increase of cloud hydrometeor concentration. Meanwhile, latent heating was balanced by advective cooling and a local atmospheric warming. One day later, the enhancement of net condensation led to an increase of surface rainfall and a local atmospheric drying, while the water vapor convergence weakened as a result of the landfall-induced deprivation of water vapor flux. At the same time, the latent heating is mainly compensated the advective cooling. Further weakening of vapor convergence on 8 October enhanced the local atmospheric drying while the net condensation and associated surface rainfall was maintained. The latent heating is balanced by advective cooling and a local atmospheric cooling.展开更多
Reasonably accurate predictions of wave heights, current and elevations during storm events are vital information for marine operations and design of offshore and coastal structures in the surrounding seas of Korea Pe...Reasonably accurate predictions of wave heights, current and elevations during storm events are vital information for marine operations and design of offshore and coastal structures in the surrounding seas of Korea Peninsula. Ocean circulation and wind-wave models have traditionally been run separately, but recent researches have identified potentially important interactions between current and wave motions. The coupled tide-surge and the WAM wave models at the atmospheric boundary layer and bottom boundary layer around the Korea Peninsula are applied for the Typhoon Maemi （0314） event. Communication between the models is aehievod using MPI. Results are compared with coastal tide gauges and moored wave buoys and comparisons are also made between wave computations from the coupled model and the independent third generation wave models. Results suggest that applying the fide-surge-coupled model can be an effective means of obtaining wave and storm surge predictions simultaneously.展开更多
Ocean noise recorded during a typhoon can be used to monitor the typhoon and investigate the mechanism of the wind- generated noise. An analytical expression for the typhoon-generated noise intensity is derived as a f...Ocean noise recorded during a typhoon can be used to monitor the typhoon and investigate the mechanism of the wind- generated noise. An analytical expression for the typhoon-generated noise intensity is derived as a function of wind speed. A ＂bi-peak＂ structure was observed in an experiment during which typhoon-generated noise was recorded. Wind speed dependence and frequency dependence were also observed in the frequency range of 100 Hz-1000 Hz. The model/data comparison shows that results of the present model of 500 Hz and 1000 Hz are in reasonable agreement with the exper- imental data, and the typhoon-generated noise intensity has a dependence on frequency and a power-law dependence on wind speed.展开更多
Optimal computational parameters are determined through comparisons of typhoon track for similarity relevant to vdrious sets of computational parameters using a simple quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equations ...Optimal computational parameters are determined through comparisons of typhoon track for similarity relevant to vdrious sets of computational parameters using a simple quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equations model. The result: the Poisson equation is solved for numerical solutions at an iterative accuracy of 1.0 × 10-4 and a time step of 20 min.展开更多
Accurately forecasting ocean waves during typhoon events is extremely important in aiding the mitigation and minimization of their potential damage to the coastal infrastructure, and the protection of coastal communit...Accurately forecasting ocean waves during typhoon events is extremely important in aiding the mitigation and minimization of their potential damage to the coastal infrastructure, and the protection of coastal communities. However, due to the complex hydrological and meteorological interaction and uncertainties arising from different modeling systems, quantifying the uncertainties and improving the forecasting accuracy of modeled typhoon-induced waves remain challenging. This paper presents a practical approach to optimizing model-ensemble wave heights in an attempt to improve the accuracy of real-time typhoon wave forecasting. A locally weighted learning algorithm is used to obtain the weights for the wave heights computed by the WAVEWATCH III wave model driven by winds from four different weather models （model-ensembles）. The optimized weights are subsequently used to calculate the resulting wave heights from the model-ensembles. The results show that the opti- mization is capable of capturing the different behavioral effects of the different weather models on wave generation. Comparison with the measurements at the selected wave buoy locations shows that the optimized weights, obtained through a training process, can significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasted wave heights over the standard mean values, particularly for typhoon-induced peak waves. The results also indicate that the algorithm is easy to imnlement and practieal for real-time wave forecasting.展开更多
The simulating waves nearshore(SWAN) model has typically been designed for wave simulations in near-shore regions. In this study, the model's applicability to the simulation of typhoon waves in the South China Sea...The simulating waves nearshore(SWAN) model has typically been designed for wave simulations in near-shore regions. In this study, the model's applicability to the simulation of typhoon waves in the South China Sea(SCS) was evaluated. A blended wind field, consisting of an interior domain based on Fujita's model and an exterior domain based on Takahashi's model, was used as the driving wind field. The waves driven by Typhoon Kai-tak over the SCS that occurred in 2012 were selected for the numerical simulation research. Sensitivity analyses of time step, grid resolution, and angle resolution were performed in order to obtain optimal model settings. Through sensitivity analyses, it can be found that the time step has a large influence on the results, while grid resolution and angle resolution have a little effect on the results.展开更多
The basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Nida(2016) are simulated using a new microphysics scheme(Liuma) within the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Typhoon characteristics simulated with the Lium...The basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Nida(2016) are simulated using a new microphysics scheme(Liuma) within the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Typhoon characteristics simulated with the Liuma microphysics scheme are compared with observations and those simulated with a commonly-used microphysics scheme(WSM6). Results show that using different microphysics schemes does not significantly alter the track of the typhoon but does significantly affect the intensity and the cloud structure of the typhoon. Results also show that the vertical distribution of cloud hydrometeors and the horizontal distribution of peripheral rainband are affected by the microphysics scheme. The mixing ratios of rain water and graupel correlate highly with the vertical velocity component and equivalent potential temperature at the typhoon eye-wall region. According to the simulation with WSM 6 scheme,it is likely that the very low typhoon central pressure results from the positive feedback between hydrometeors and typhoon intensity. As the ice-phase hydrometeors are mostly graupel in the Liuma microphysics scheme, further improvement in this aspect is required.展开更多
A bogus typhoon scheme,designed for the initialization of a typhoon track prediction model,is developed in thispaper.This scheme includes both effects of axisymmetric wind and asymmetric wind.Experimental forecasts us...A bogus typhoon scheme,designed for the initialization of a typhoon track prediction model,is developed in thispaper.This scheme includes both effects of axisymmetric wind and asymmetric wind.Experimental forecasts using atwo-way interactive movable nested mesh model show that the forecast skill of typhoon tracks has clearly improvedafter introducing the bogus typhoon into the initial fields.展开更多
In this paper, we apply an unstructured grid coastal ocean model to simulate variations in the sea level and currents forced by two typhoons in the northwestern South China Sea(SCS). The model simulations show distinc...In this paper, we apply an unstructured grid coastal ocean model to simulate variations in the sea level and currents forced by two typhoons in the northwestern South China Sea(SCS). The model simulations show distinct differences for the two cases in which the typhoon paths were north and south of the Qiongzhou(QZ) Strait. In both cases, coastal trapped waves(CTWs) are stimulated but their propagation behaviors differ. Model sensitivity simulations suggest the dominant role played by alongshore wind in the eastern SCS(near Shanwei) and southeast of Hainan Island. We also examine the influence of the Leizhou Peninsula by changing the coastline in simulation experiments. Based on our results, we can draw the following conclusions: 1) The CTWs stimulated by the northern typhoon are stronger than the southern CTW. 2) In the two cases, the directions of the current structures of the QZ cross-transect are reversed. The strongest flow cores are both located in the middle-upper area of the strait and the results of our empirical orthogonal function analysis show that the vertical structure is highly barotropic. 3) The simulated CTWs divide into two branches in the QZ Strait for the northern typhoon, and an island trapped wave(ITW) around Hainan Island for the southern typhoon. 4) The Leizhou Peninsula plays a significant role in the distribution of the kinetic energy flux between the two CTW branches. In the presence of the Leizhou Peninsula, the QZ branch has only 39.7 percent of the total energy, whereas that ratio increases to 72.2 percent in its absence.展开更多
This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models have their own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statistical model ca...This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models have their own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statistical model called DLM (dynamic linear model) is applied to remove the systematic error. In the analysis of typhoons occurring over the western North Pacific in 1997 and 2000, DLM is useful as an adaptive model for the prediction of typhoon tracks.展开更多
Typhoon-generated waves are simulated with two numerical wave models, the SWAN model for the coastal and Yangtze Estuary domain, nested within the WAVEWATCHIII （WW3） for the basin-scale East China Sea domain. Typhoo...Typhoon-generated waves are simulated with two numerical wave models, the SWAN model for the coastal and Yangtze Estuary domain, nested within the WAVEWATCHIII （WW3） for the basin-scale East China Sea domain. Typhoon No. 8114 is chosen because it was very strong, and generated high waves in the Estuary. WW3 was implemented for the East China Sea coarse-resolution computational domain, to simulate the waves over a large spatial scale and provide boundary conditions for SWAN model simulations, implemented on a fine-resolution nested domain for the Yangtze Estuary area. The Takahashi wind model is applied to the simulation of the East China Sea scale （3-hourly） and Yangtze Estuary scale （1-hourly） winds. Simulations of significant wave heights in the East China Sea show that the highest waves are on the right side of the storm track, and maxima tend to occur at the eastern deep-water open boundary of the Yangtze Estuary. In the Yangtze Estuary, incoming swell is dominant over locally generated waves before the typhoon approaches the Estuary. As the typhoon approaches the Estuary, wind waves and swell coexist, and the wave direction is mainly influenced by the swell direction and the complex topography.展开更多
基金supported by the Chinese National Research Program of Science and Technology under Project! 85-903-03-04.
文摘A baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi--nested grid is applied in marine environmental forecasts. This paper describes the numerical methods of the model including governing equations, finite differencing, split scheme and time integration.
文摘A 3-dimensional baroclinic typhoon model with a moving multi-nested grid and its initialization are described first. Prediction results are improved by using a simple but effective data assimilation method in which the initial field is adjusted by the sixth hour's typhoon report and the weak-constraint variational principle. Finally someforecast examples made by this typhoon model are given.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants Nos.40875025,40875030,and 40775033)the Shanghai Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.08ZR1422900)
文摘Water vapor, cloud, and surface rainfall budgets associated with the landfall of Typhoon Krosa on 6-8 October 2007 are analyzed based on a two-dimensional cloud-resolving model simulation. The model is integrated with imposed zonally-uniform vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal temperature, and vapor advection from NCEP/Global Data Assimilation System （GDAS） data. The simulation data that are validated with observations are examined to study physical causes associated with surface rainfall processes during the landfall. The time- and domain-mean analysis shows that when Krosa approached the eastern coast of China on 6 October, the water vapor convergence over land caused a local atmospheric moistening and a net condensation that further produced surface rainfall and an increase of cloud hydrometeor concentration. Meanwhile, latent heating was balanced by advective cooling and a local atmospheric warming. One day later, the enhancement of net condensation led to an increase of surface rainfall and a local atmospheric drying, while the water vapor convergence weakened as a result of the landfall-induced deprivation of water vapor flux. At the same time, the latent heating is mainly compensated the advective cooling. Further weakening of vapor convergence on 8 October enhanced the local atmospheric drying while the net condensation and associated surface rainfall was maintained. The latent heating is balanced by advective cooling and a local atmospheric cooling.
文摘Reasonably accurate predictions of wave heights, current and elevations during storm events are vital information for marine operations and design of offshore and coastal structures in the surrounding seas of Korea Peninsula. Ocean circulation and wind-wave models have traditionally been run separately, but recent researches have identified potentially important interactions between current and wave motions. The coupled tide-surge and the WAM wave models at the atmospheric boundary layer and bottom boundary layer around the Korea Peninsula are applied for the Typhoon Maemi （0314） event. Communication between the models is aehievod using MPI. Results are compared with coastal tide gauges and moored wave buoys and comparisons are also made between wave computations from the coupled model and the independent third generation wave models. Results suggest that applying the fide-surge-coupled model can be an effective means of obtaining wave and storm surge predictions simultaneously.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11434012,41561144006,and 11125420)
文摘Ocean noise recorded during a typhoon can be used to monitor the typhoon and investigate the mechanism of the wind- generated noise. An analytical expression for the typhoon-generated noise intensity is derived as a function of wind speed. A ＂bi-peak＂ structure was observed in an experiment during which typhoon-generated noise was recorded. Wind speed dependence and frequency dependence were also observed in the frequency range of 100 Hz-1000 Hz. The model/data comparison shows that results of the present model of 500 Hz and 1000 Hz are in reasonable agreement with the exper- imental data, and the typhoon-generated noise intensity has a dependence on frequency and a power-law dependence on wind speed.
文摘Optimal computational parameters are determined through comparisons of typhoon track for similarity relevant to vdrious sets of computational parameters using a simple quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equations model. The result: the Poisson equation is solved for numerical solutions at an iterative accuracy of 1.0 × 10-4 and a time step of 20 min.
基金supported by the European Commission within FP7-THEME 6(Grant No.244104)the Natural Environment Research Council(NERC)of the UK(Grant No.NE/J005541/1)the Ministry of Science and Technology(MOST)of Taiwan(Grant No.MOST 104-2221-E-006-183)
文摘Accurately forecasting ocean waves during typhoon events is extremely important in aiding the mitigation and minimization of their potential damage to the coastal infrastructure, and the protection of coastal communities. However, due to the complex hydrological and meteorological interaction and uncertainties arising from different modeling systems, quantifying the uncertainties and improving the forecasting accuracy of modeled typhoon-induced waves remain challenging. This paper presents a practical approach to optimizing model-ensemble wave heights in an attempt to improve the accuracy of real-time typhoon wave forecasting. A locally weighted learning algorithm is used to obtain the weights for the wave heights computed by the WAVEWATCH III wave model driven by winds from four different weather models （model-ensembles）. The optimized weights are subsequently used to calculate the resulting wave heights from the model-ensembles. The results show that the opti- mization is capable of capturing the different behavioral effects of the different weather models on wave generation. Comparison with the measurements at the selected wave buoy locations shows that the optimized weights, obtained through a training process, can significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasted wave heights over the standard mean values, particularly for typhoon-induced peak waves. The results also indicate that the algorithm is easy to imnlement and practieal for real-time wave forecasting.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51239001,51179015,and 51509023)the Open Research Foundation of the Key Laboratory of the Pearl River Estuarine Dynamics and Associated Process Regulation,the Ministry of Water Resources(Grant No.2018KJ03)+1 种基金the Key Laboratory of Water-Sediment Sciences and Water Disaster Prevention of Hunan Province(Grant No.2017SS04)the Key Laboratory of Technology for Safeguarding of Maritime Rights and Interests and Application,State Oceanic Administration(Grant No.SCS1606)
文摘The simulating waves nearshore(SWAN) model has typically been designed for wave simulations in near-shore regions. In this study, the model's applicability to the simulation of typhoon waves in the South China Sea(SCS) was evaluated. A blended wind field, consisting of an interior domain based on Fujita's model and an exterior domain based on Takahashi's model, was used as the driving wind field. The waves driven by Typhoon Kai-tak over the SCS that occurred in 2012 were selected for the numerical simulation research. Sensitivity analyses of time step, grid resolution, and angle resolution were performed in order to obtain optimal model settings. Through sensitivity analyses, it can be found that the time step has a large influence on the results, while grid resolution and angle resolution have a little effect on the results.
基金Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2017YFC1501406)National Key Research and Development Plan Program of China(2017YFA0604500)CMA Youth Founding Program(Q201706&NWPC-QNJJ-201702)
文摘The basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Nida(2016) are simulated using a new microphysics scheme(Liuma) within the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Typhoon characteristics simulated with the Liuma microphysics scheme are compared with observations and those simulated with a commonly-used microphysics scheme(WSM6). Results show that using different microphysics schemes does not significantly alter the track of the typhoon but does significantly affect the intensity and the cloud structure of the typhoon. Results also show that the vertical distribution of cloud hydrometeors and the horizontal distribution of peripheral rainband are affected by the microphysics scheme. The mixing ratios of rain water and graupel correlate highly with the vertical velocity component and equivalent potential temperature at the typhoon eye-wall region. According to the simulation with WSM 6 scheme,it is likely that the very low typhoon central pressure results from the positive feedback between hydrometeors and typhoon intensity. As the ice-phase hydrometeors are mostly graupel in the Liuma microphysics scheme, further improvement in this aspect is required.
文摘A bogus typhoon scheme,designed for the initialization of a typhoon track prediction model,is developed in thispaper.This scheme includes both effects of axisymmetric wind and asymmetric wind.Experimental forecasts using atwo-way interactive movable nested mesh model show that the forecast skill of typhoon tracks has clearly improvedafter introducing the bogus typhoon into the initial fields.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41266002,41406031,41406044)the Special Fund for Basic Scientific Research Business of Central Public Research Institutes(No.2015P02)the Fund of Key Laboratory of Global Change and Marine-Atmospheric Chemistry,SOA(No.GCMAC1308)for their support
文摘In this paper, we apply an unstructured grid coastal ocean model to simulate variations in the sea level and currents forced by two typhoons in the northwestern South China Sea(SCS). The model simulations show distinct differences for the two cases in which the typhoon paths were north and south of the Qiongzhou(QZ) Strait. In both cases, coastal trapped waves(CTWs) are stimulated but their propagation behaviors differ. Model sensitivity simulations suggest the dominant role played by alongshore wind in the eastern SCS(near Shanwei) and southeast of Hainan Island. We also examine the influence of the Leizhou Peninsula by changing the coastline in simulation experiments. Based on our results, we can draw the following conclusions: 1) The CTWs stimulated by the northern typhoon are stronger than the southern CTW. 2) In the two cases, the directions of the current structures of the QZ cross-transect are reversed. The strongest flow cores are both located in the middle-upper area of the strait and the results of our empirical orthogonal function analysis show that the vertical structure is highly barotropic. 3) The simulated CTWs divide into two branches in the QZ Strait for the northern typhoon, and an island trapped wave(ITW) around Hainan Island for the southern typhoon. 4) The Leizhou Peninsula plays a significant role in the distribution of the kinetic energy flux between the two CTW branches. In the presence of the Leizhou Peninsula, the QZ branch has only 39.7 percent of the total energy, whereas that ratio increases to 72.2 percent in its absence.
基金the project"A study on improving forecast skill using a su-percomputer"of Meteorological Research Institute,KMA,2001.
文摘This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models have their own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statistical model called DLM (dynamic linear model) is applied to remove the systematic error. In the analysis of typhoons occurring over the western North Pacific in 1997 and 2000, DLM is useful as an adaptive model for the prediction of typhoon tracks.
基金This project is supported bythe Canadian Panel on Energy Research and Development (Offshore Environmental Fac-tors Program) , ONR (US Office of Naval Research) via GoMOOS-the Gulf of Maine Ocean Observing System,Petroleum Research Atlantic Canada (PRAC) ,and the CFCAS (Canada Foundation for Climate and AtmosphericStudies) ,Canadian Panel on Energy Research and Development (Offshore Environmental Factors Program) .It is al-so supported bythe Advanced Doctoral Fund of the Ministry of Education of China (Grant No.20030294010)
文摘Typhoon-generated waves are simulated with two numerical wave models, the SWAN model for the coastal and Yangtze Estuary domain, nested within the WAVEWATCHIII （WW3） for the basin-scale East China Sea domain. Typhoon No. 8114 is chosen because it was very strong, and generated high waves in the Estuary. WW3 was implemented for the East China Sea coarse-resolution computational domain, to simulate the waves over a large spatial scale and provide boundary conditions for SWAN model simulations, implemented on a fine-resolution nested domain for the Yangtze Estuary area. The Takahashi wind model is applied to the simulation of the East China Sea scale （3-hourly） and Yangtze Estuary scale （1-hourly） winds. Simulations of significant wave heights in the East China Sea show that the highest waves are on the right side of the storm track, and maxima tend to occur at the eastern deep-water open boundary of the Yangtze Estuary. In the Yangtze Estuary, incoming swell is dominant over locally generated waves before the typhoon approaches the Estuary. As the typhoon approaches the Estuary, wind waves and swell coexist, and the wave direction is mainly influenced by the swell direction and the complex topography.
