Typhoon-induced heavy rains are mostly studied from the viewpoint of upper-level westerly troughs. It is worthwhile to probe into a case where the rain is caused by tropical cyclone system, which is much heavier. Duri...Typhoon-induced heavy rains are mostly studied from the viewpoint of upper-level westerly troughs. It is worthwhile to probe into a case where the rain is caused by tropical cyclone system, which is much heavier. During August 3 ~ 5, 1996, an unusually heavy rainstorm happened in the southwest of Hebei province. It was caused by 3 mesoscale convective cloud clusters on the periphery of a tropical cyclone other than the direct effects of a westerly trough. Generating in a weak baroclinic environment that is unstable with high energy, the cloud clusters were triggered off for development by unstable ageostrophic gravity waves in the low-level southeast jet stream on the periphery of the typhoon. There was a vertical circulation cell with horizontal scale close to 1000 km between the rainstorm area and westerly trough in northeast China. As shown in a computation of the Q vector of frontogenesis function, the circulation cell forms a mechanism of transforming energy between the area of interest and the westerly trough system farther away in northeast China. Study of water vapor chart indicates that high-latitude troughs in the northeast portion of the rain migrate to the southeast to enhance anti-cyclonic divergence in upper-level convection over the area of heavy rain and cause rain clusters, short-lived otherwise, to develop vigorously. It is acting as an amplifier in this case of unusually strong process of rain.展开更多
主要分析了2005—2012年中国24 h台风路径预报误差较大的样本及其对应的大尺度环流特征。基于850 h Pa风场的低通滤波等分析发现:去除占总数3.9%的预报误差最大样本后,平均预报误差可以减小8.5%。这些预报误差最大的样本中有近60%呈现...主要分析了2005—2012年中国24 h台风路径预报误差较大的样本及其对应的大尺度环流特征。基于850 h Pa风场的低通滤波等分析发现:去除占总数3.9%的预报误差最大样本后,平均预报误差可以减小8.5%。这些预报误差最大的样本中有近60%呈现为移向误差较小、移速较观测慢的特点。与之相对应的大尺度环境场可分为气旋性环流、弱背景场和副热带高压西侧3类。气旋性环流包含近3/4的样本,其中又有一半受季风涡旋的影响。平均移动速度分析表明,这些台风起报时刻前后,平均移速的突然增加是预报移速较慢的主要原因,这是中国台风24 h路径预报的主要难点之一。展开更多
文摘Typhoon-induced heavy rains are mostly studied from the viewpoint of upper-level westerly troughs. It is worthwhile to probe into a case where the rain is caused by tropical cyclone system, which is much heavier. During August 3 ~ 5, 1996, an unusually heavy rainstorm happened in the southwest of Hebei province. It was caused by 3 mesoscale convective cloud clusters on the periphery of a tropical cyclone other than the direct effects of a westerly trough. Generating in a weak baroclinic environment that is unstable with high energy, the cloud clusters were triggered off for development by unstable ageostrophic gravity waves in the low-level southeast jet stream on the periphery of the typhoon. There was a vertical circulation cell with horizontal scale close to 1000 km between the rainstorm area and westerly trough in northeast China. As shown in a computation of the Q vector of frontogenesis function, the circulation cell forms a mechanism of transforming energy between the area of interest and the westerly trough system farther away in northeast China. Study of water vapor chart indicates that high-latitude troughs in the northeast portion of the rain migrate to the southeast to enhance anti-cyclonic divergence in upper-level convection over the area of heavy rain and cause rain clusters, short-lived otherwise, to develop vigorously. It is acting as an amplifier in this case of unusually strong process of rain.
文摘主要分析了2005—2012年中国24 h台风路径预报误差较大的样本及其对应的大尺度环流特征。基于850 h Pa风场的低通滤波等分析发现:去除占总数3.9%的预报误差最大样本后,平均预报误差可以减小8.5%。这些预报误差最大的样本中有近60%呈现为移向误差较小、移速较观测慢的特点。与之相对应的大尺度环境场可分为气旋性环流、弱背景场和副热带高压西侧3类。气旋性环流包含近3/4的样本,其中又有一半受季风涡旋的影响。平均移动速度分析表明,这些台风起报时刻前后,平均移速的突然增加是预报移速较慢的主要原因,这是中国台风24 h路径预报的主要难点之一。
