Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning mode...Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.展开更多
With the advent of deep learning,various deep neural network architectures have been proposed to capture the complex spatio-temporal dependencies in traffic data.This paper introduces a novel Deep Bi-directional Adapt...With the advent of deep learning,various deep neural network architectures have been proposed to capture the complex spatio-temporal dependencies in traffic data.This paper introduces a novel Deep Bi-directional Adaptive Gating Graph Convolutional Network(DBAG-GCN)model for spatio-temporal traffic forecasting.The proposed model leverages the power of graph convolutional networks to capture the spatial dependencies in the road network topology and incorporates bi-directional gating mechanisms to control the information flow adaptively.Furthermore,we introduce a multi-scale temporal convolution module to capture multi-scale temporal dynamics and a contextual attention mechanism to integrate external factors such as weather conditions and event information.Extensive experiments on real-world traffic datasets demonstrate the superior performance of DBAG-GCN compared to state-of-the-art baselines,achieving significant improvements in prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.The DBAG-GCN model provides a powerful and flexible framework for spatio-temporal traffic forecasting,paving the way for intelligent transportation management and urban planning.展开更多
In order to address the issues of predefined adjacency matrices inadequately representing information in road networks,insufficiently capturing spatial dependencies of traffic networks,and the potential problem of exc...In order to address the issues of predefined adjacency matrices inadequately representing information in road networks,insufficiently capturing spatial dependencies of traffic networks,and the potential problem of excessive smoothing or neglecting initial node information as the layers of graph convolutional neural networks increase,thus affecting traffic prediction performance,this paper proposes a prediction model based on Adaptive Multi-channel Graph Convolutional Neural Networks(AMGCN).The model utilizes an adaptive adjacency matrix to automatically learn implicit graph structures from data,introduces a mixed skip propagation graph convolutional neural network model,which retains the original node states and selectively acquires outputs of convolutional layers,thus avoiding the loss of node initial states and comprehensively capturing spatial correlations of traffic flow.Finally,the output is fed into Long Short-Term Memory networks to capture temporal correlations.Comparative experiments on two real datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed model.展开更多
基金Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS,Grant/Award Number:2021103Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Grant/Award Number:XDC02060500。
文摘Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.62202247 and 62306073)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022ZD0115303).
文摘With the advent of deep learning,various deep neural network architectures have been proposed to capture the complex spatio-temporal dependencies in traffic data.This paper introduces a novel Deep Bi-directional Adaptive Gating Graph Convolutional Network(DBAG-GCN)model for spatio-temporal traffic forecasting.The proposed model leverages the power of graph convolutional networks to capture the spatial dependencies in the road network topology and incorporates bi-directional gating mechanisms to control the information flow adaptively.Furthermore,we introduce a multi-scale temporal convolution module to capture multi-scale temporal dynamics and a contextual attention mechanism to integrate external factors such as weather conditions and event information.Extensive experiments on real-world traffic datasets demonstrate the superior performance of DBAG-GCN compared to state-of-the-art baselines,achieving significant improvements in prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.The DBAG-GCN model provides a powerful and flexible framework for spatio-temporal traffic forecasting,paving the way for intelligent transportation management and urban planning.
文摘In order to address the issues of predefined adjacency matrices inadequately representing information in road networks,insufficiently capturing spatial dependencies of traffic networks,and the potential problem of excessive smoothing or neglecting initial node information as the layers of graph convolutional neural networks increase,thus affecting traffic prediction performance,this paper proposes a prediction model based on Adaptive Multi-channel Graph Convolutional Neural Networks(AMGCN).The model utilizes an adaptive adjacency matrix to automatically learn implicit graph structures from data,introduces a mixed skip propagation graph convolutional neural network model,which retains the original node states and selectively acquires outputs of convolutional layers,thus avoiding the loss of node initial states and comprehensively capturing spatial correlations of traffic flow.Finally,the output is fed into Long Short-Term Memory networks to capture temporal correlations.Comparative experiments on two real datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed model.
