The“One Zone,Two Lands,One Park,and One Corridor”development strategy implemented in Guangxi,as a key component of China’s regional strategic deployment,provides opportunities and challenges for the development of ...The“One Zone,Two Lands,One Park,and One Corridor”development strategy implemented in Guangxi,as a key component of China’s regional strategic deployment,provides opportunities and challenges for the development of local higher education.By comparing the strategic requirements,this paper uses the SWOT analysis method to conduct an in-depth analysis of the current status of higher education in Guangxi.The analysis results show that Guangxi’s higher education has certain advantages in geographical location but lacks educational resources.At the same time,the region’s higher education faces opportunities such as policy support and local industrial transformation and upgrading,but it also faces risks such as fierce external competition,mismatches between talent supply and demand,and financial constraints.Aiming at the above problems,this paper further proposes the Opportunity Capture Strategy,Adversity Breakthrough Strategy,Advantage Defense Strategy,and Disadvantage Resolution Strategy,aiming to solve the problems faced by regional higher education in serving the transformation of local development strategies.展开更多
Reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_(0)) is essential for determining crop water requirements and developing irrigation strategies.In this study,ET_(0) was calculated via the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith model,and the spat...Reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_(0)) is essential for determining crop water requirements and developing irrigation strategies.In this study,ET_(0) was calculated via the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith model,and the spatiotemporal variations in ET_(0) over China from 1960 to 2019 were analyzed.We then quantified the contributions of five driving factors(air temperature,wind speed,relative humidity,sunshine hours,and CO_(2) concentration)to the ET_(0) trends via a detrending experiment.The results revealed that nationwide ET_(0) showed no significant(p>0.05)decreasing trend from 1960 to 2019,with a trend of−8.56×10^(−2)mm a^(−2).The average temperature and wind speed were identified as the dominant factors affecting ET_(0)trends at the national scale.The contributions of the driving factors to the ET_(0) trends were ranked in the following order:average temperature(21.3%)>wind speed(−15.63%)>sunshine hours(−11.99%)>CO_(2) concentration(6.36%)>relative humidity(3.58%).Spatially,the dominant factors influencing the ET_(0) trends varied widely.In the southeastern region,average temperature and sunshine hours dominated the trends of ET_(0),whereas wind speed and average temperature were the dominant factors in the northwestern region.The findings provide valuable insights into the dominant factors affecting ET_(0)trends in China and highlight the importance of considering different driving factors in calculating crop water requirements.展开更多
The rapid development in Beijing, the capital of China, has resulted in serious air pollution problems. Meanwhile great efforts have been made to improve the air quality, especially since 1998. The variation in air qu...The rapid development in Beijing, the capital of China, has resulted in serious air pollution problems. Meanwhile great efforts have been made to improve the air quality, especially since 1998. The variation in air quality under the interaction of pollution and control in this mega city has attracted much attention. We analyzed the changes in ambient air quality in Beijing since the 1980’s using the Daniel trend test based on data from long-term monitoring stations. The results showed that different pollutants displayed three trends： a decreasing trend, an increasing trend and a flat trend. SO2, dustfall, B[a]P, NO2 and PM10 fit decreasing trend pattern, while NOx showed an increasing trend, and CO, ozone pollution, total suspended particulate （TSP）, as well as Pb fit the flat trend. The cause of the general air pollution in Beijing has changed from being predominantly related to coal burning to mixed traffic exhaust and coal burning related pollution. Seasonally, the pollution level is typically higher during the heating season from November to the following March. The interaction between pollution sources change and implementation of air pollution control measures was the main driving factor that caused the variation in air quality. Changes of industrial structure and improved energy effciency, the use of clean energy and preferred use of clean coal, reduction in pollution sources, and implementation of advanced environmental standards have all contributed to the reduction in air pollution, particularly since 1998.展开更多
There are 71 surface sediment samples collected from the eastern Beibu Gulf. The moment parameters （i.e. mean size, sorting and skewness） were obtained after applying grain size analysis. The geostatistical analysis...There are 71 surface sediment samples collected from the eastern Beibu Gulf. The moment parameters （i.e. mean size, sorting and skewness） were obtained after applying grain size analysis. The geostatistical analysis was then applied to study the spatial autocorrelation for these parameters; while range, a parameter in the semivariogram that meters the scale of spatial autocorrelation, was estimated. The results indicated that the range for sorting coefficient was physically meaningful. The trend vectors calculated from grain size trend analysis model were consistent with the annual ocean circulation patterns and sediment transport rates according to previous studies. Therefore the range derived from the semivariogram of mean size can be used as the characteristic distance in the grain size trend analysis, which may remove the bias caused by the traditional way of basing on experiences or testing methods to get the characteristic distance. Hence the results from geostatistical analysis can also offer useful information for the determination of sediment sampling density in the future field work.展开更多
In the past 30 years,signed directed graph(SDG) ,one of the qualitative simulation technologies,has been widely applied for chemical fault diagnosis.However,SDG based fault diagnosis,as any other qualitative method,ha...In the past 30 years,signed directed graph(SDG) ,one of the qualitative simulation technologies,has been widely applied for chemical fault diagnosis.However,SDG based fault diagnosis,as any other qualitative method,has poor diagnostic resolution.In this paper,a new method that combines SDG with qualitative trend analysis(QTA) is presented to improve the resolution.In the method,a bidirectional inference algorithm based on assumption and verification is used to find all the possible fault causes and their corresponding consistent paths in the SDG model.Then an improved QTA algorithm is used to extract and analyze the trends of nodes on the consis-tent paths found in the previous step.New consistency rules based on qualitative trends are used to find the real causes from the candidate causes.The resolution can be improved.This method combines the completeness feature of SDG with the good diagnostic resolution feature of QTA.The implementation of SDG-QTA based fault diagno-sis is done using the integrated SDG modeling,inference and post-processing software platform.Its application is illustrated on an atmospheric distillation tower unit of a simulation platform.The result shows its good applicability and efficiency.展开更多
Based on daily rainfall data from 26 station records,spatial and temporal variations in annual and seasonal precipitation of different rainfall intensities from 1961 to 2018 in Ningxia,China are investigated using the...Based on daily rainfall data from 26 station records,spatial and temporal variations in annual and seasonal precipitation of different rainfall intensities from 1961 to 2018 in Ningxia,China are investigated using the innovative trend analysis(ITA)method.The results show that annual precipitation increases on the northern plain but decreases in the southern mountainous area.The increase in regional annual precipitation is mainly due to an increase in weak precipitation,while the decrease in regional annual rainfall is a result of a reduction in heavy precipitation.Lowintensity precipitation shows an upward trend,while high-intensity precipitation shows a downward trend.The variation trend of extreme precipitation is more obvious.The contributions of different types of extreme precipitation vary by season.During spring,the increase in regional rainfall is mainly caused by the increase in heavy precipitation,while the decrease in regional precipitation is mainly caused by the decrease in weak precipitation.During summer and autumn,the increase in regional precipitation is caused by the increase in light precipitation,while the reduction in regional rainfall is caused by the decrease in heavy precipitation.This study provides support for water resources planning and addressing droughts and floods.展开更多
To reveal the sediment transporting mechanism between the abandoned Huanghe River （Yellow River） Delta and radial sand ridges, “End Member” Model and grain size trend analysis have been employed to separate the “...To reveal the sediment transporting mechanism between the abandoned Huanghe River （Yellow River） Delta and radial sand ridges, “End Member” Model and grain size trend analysis have been employed to separate the “dynamic populations” in the surficial sediment particle spectra and to determine the possible sediment transporting pathway. The results reveal four “dynamic subpopulations”（EM1 to EM4） and two reverse sediment transporting directions： a northward transport tend from the radial sand ridges to mud patch, and a southward transport trend in deep water area outside the mud patch. Combined with the published hydrodynamic information, the transporting mechanism of dynamic populations has been discussed, and the main conclusion is that the transporting of finer subpopulations EM1 and EM2 is controlled by the “anticlockwise residual current circulation” forming during tidal cycle, which favor a northward transporting trend and the forming of mud patch on the north of radial sand ridges, while the transporting of coarser EM3 is mainly controlled by wind driven drift in winter, which favors a southward transporting direction.展开更多
Qualitative algebraic equations are the basis of qualitative simulation,which are used to express the dynamic behavior of steady-state continuous processes.When the values and operation of qualitative variables are re...Qualitative algebraic equations are the basis of qualitative simulation,which are used to express the dynamic behavior of steady-state continuous processes.When the values and operation of qualitative variables are redefined,qualitative algebraic equations can be transformed into signed direct graphs,which are frequently used to predict the trend of dynamic changes.However,it is difficult to use traditional qualitative algebra methods based on artificial trial and error to solve a complex problem for dynamic trends.An important aspect of modern qualitative algebra is to model and characterize complex systems with the corresponding computer-aided automatic reasoning.In this study,a qualitative affection equation based on multiple conditions is proposed,which enables the signed di-rect graphs to describe complex systems better and improves the fault diagnosis resolution.The application to an industrial case shows that the method performs well.展开更多
Groundwater accounts for about half of the water use for irrigation in India.The fluctuation pattern of the groundwater level is examined by observing rainfall replenishment and monitoring wells.The southern part of R...Groundwater accounts for about half of the water use for irrigation in India.The fluctuation pattern of the groundwater level is examined by observing rainfall replenishment and monitoring wells.The southern part of Rajasthan has experienced abrupt changes in rainfall and has been highly dependent on groundwater over decades.This study presents the impact of over-dependence on groundwater usage for irrigation and other purposes,spatially and temporally.Hence,the objective of this study is to examine the groundwater level trend by using statistical analysis and geospatial technique.Rainfall factor was also studied in groundwater level fluctuation during 2009-2019.To analyze the influence of each well during recharge or withdrawal of groundwater,thiessien polygonswere generated from them.In the Jakham River basin,75 wells have been identified for water level trend study using the Mann-Kendall statistical test.The statistics of trend analysis show that 15%wells are experiencing water level decline in pre-monsoon,while very low percentage of wells have such trend during post-monsoon season.The average rate of water level decline is 0.245 m/a in pre-monsoon and 0.05 m/a in post-monsoon.The aquifer recharge potential is also decreasing by year.it is expected that such type of studies will help the policy makers to adopt advanced management practices to ensure sustainable groundwater resource management.展开更多
Based on the monitoring data of precipitation and runoff series from 1953 to 2013 and groundwater exploitation from 1977 to 2013 in Jinghui Irrigation Area,especially the evolution of water resources during the growth...Based on the monitoring data of precipitation and runoff series from 1953 to 2013 and groundwater exploitation from 1977 to 2013 in Jinghui Irrigation Area,especially the evolution of water resources during the growth period of main crops,the trend test of precipitation and runoff series was carried out by using Spearman rank correlation test and R/S analysis.The results showed that the annual mean precipitation and runoff and the growth period of main crops showed a downward trend,and the changes in the future were similar to those in the past;the amount of groundwater exploitation has not changed much,which is about 150 million m^3.The research results can provide scientific basis for efficient utilization and reasonable allocation of water resources in irrigation area,and provide technical support for the development of modern agriculture.展开更多
Effective disturbance indices for Hyrcanian forests in Kheyroud,Nowshahr,Iran were determined.The study area was divided into landscape mosaics based on ecosystem parameters including profile type,slope and elevation....Effective disturbance indices for Hyrcanian forests in Kheyroud,Nowshahr,Iran were determined.The study area was divided into landscape mosaics based on ecosystem parameters including profile type,slope and elevation.Co-occurrence texture indices were derived as forest disturbance factors on the first five bands of Landsat TM,ETM+and OLI images for the prevailing wood harvest disturbance regimes.These indices were screened using ten types of trend analyses and used for modeling disturbance of the harvesting regime through artificial neural networks.The results show that the selected indices can be useful in distinguishing areas with different disturbance intensities and as such,used in the context of health assessment through the health distance method.The accuracy of the health maps derived from the indices[increasing disturbance]led to give rise higher disturbance classification accuracy.展开更多
Long-term,ground-based daily global solar radiation (DGSR) at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica can quantitatively reveal the basic characteristics of Earth’s surface radiation balance and validate satellite data for t...Long-term,ground-based daily global solar radiation (DGSR) at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica can quantitatively reveal the basic characteristics of Earth’s surface radiation balance and validate satellite data for the Antarctic region.The fixed station was established in 1989,and conventional radiation observations started much later in 2008.In this study,a random forest (RF) model for estimating DGSR is developed using ground meteorological observation data,and a highprecision,long-term DGSR dataset is constructed.Then,the trend of DGSR from 1990 to 2019 at Zhongshan Station,Antarctica is analyzed.The RF model,which performs better than other models,shows a desirable performance of DGSR hindcast estimation with an R^2 of 0.984,root-mean-square error of 1.377 MJ m^(-2),and mean absolute error of 0.828 MJ m^(-2).The trend of DGSR annual anomalies increases during 1990–2004 and then begins to decrease after 2004.Note that the maximum value of annual anomalies occurs during approximately 2004/05 and is mainly related to the days with precipitation (especially those related to good weather during the polar day period) at this station.In addition to clouds and water vapor,bad weather conditions (such as snowfall,which can result in low visibility and then decreased sunshine duration and solar radiation) are the other major factors affecting solar radiation at this station.The high-precision,longterm estimated DGSR dataset enables further study and understanding of the role of Antarctica in global climate change and the interactions between snow,ice,and atmosphere.展开更多
Fault prognosis is one of the key techniques for prognosis and health management,and an effective fault feature can improve prediction accuracy and performance. A novel approach of feature extraction for fault prognos...Fault prognosis is one of the key techniques for prognosis and health management,and an effective fault feature can improve prediction accuracy and performance. A novel approach of feature extraction for fault prognosis based on fault trend analysis was proposed in this paper. In order to describe the ability of tracking fault growth process,definitions and calculations of fault trackability was developed, and the feature which had the maximum fault trackability was selected for fault prognosis. The vibration data in bearing life tests were used to verify the effectiveness of the method was proposed. The results showed that the trackability of energy entropy for bearing fault growth was the maximum,and it was the best fault feature among selected features root mean square( RMS),kurtosis,new moment and energy entropy. The proposed approach can provide a better strategy for fault feature extraction of bearings in order to improve prediction accuracy.展开更多
[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the variation trend of rainfall in Xingtai area of Hebei Province in recent 48 years. [Method] According to the annual and seasonal rainfall data in Xingtai, Nangong, Shahe an...[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the variation trend of rainfall in Xingtai area of Hebei Province in recent 48 years. [Method] According to the annual and seasonal rainfall data in Xingtai, Nangong, Shahe and Neiqiu during 1963-2010, by using the interannual variation rainfall line chart, trend chart and climatic variability, the variation trend of rainfall in Xingtai area in recent 48 years was analyzed. [Result] The annual rainfall in Xingtai area during 1963-2010 presented yearly decrease trend, and the decrease velocity was 18.0 mm/10 a. The annual rainfall in Xingtai, Nangong, Shahe and Neiqiu roughly presented same trend (linear decrease). Except spring rainfall in Xingtai area in recent 48 years slightly increased, the rainfall in summer, autumn and winter all presented linear decrease trend. The decrease velocity of summer rainfall was the maximum. The decrease of summer rainfall played decisive role in rainfall decrease of the whole year. The decrease trend of winter rainfall wasn’t as significant as that of autumn rainfall. [Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for studying climatic variation characteristics in Xingtai area under the climatic warming background.展开更多
Trend and stationarity analysis of climatic variables are essential for understanding climate variability and provide useful information about the vulnerability and future changes,especially in arid and semi-arid regi...Trend and stationarity analysis of climatic variables are essential for understanding climate variability and provide useful information about the vulnerability and future changes,especially in arid and semi-arid regions.In this study,various climatic zones of Iran were investigated to assess the relationship between the trend and the stationarity of the climatic variables.The Mann-Kendall test was considered to identify the trend,while the trend free pre-whitening approach was applied for eliminating serial correlation from the time-series.Meanwhile,time series stationarity was tested by Dickey-Fuller and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin tests.The results indicated an increasing trend for mean air temperature series at most of the stations over various climatic zones,however,after eliminating the serial correlation factor,this increasing trend changes to an insignificant decreasing trend at a 95%confidence level.The seasonal mean air temperature trend suggested a significant increase in the majority of the stations.The mean air temperature increased more in northwest towards central parts of Iran that mostly located in arid and semiarid climatic zones.Precipitation trend reveals an insignificant downward trend in most of the series over various climatic zones;furthermore,most of the stations follow a decreasing trend for seasonal precipitation.Furthermore,spatial patterns of trend and seasonality of precipitation and mean air temperature showed that the northwest parts of Iran and margin areas of the Caspian Sea are more vulnerable to the changing climate with respect to the precipitation shortfalls and warming.Stationarity analysis indicated that the stationarity of climatic series influences on their trend;so that,the series which have significant trends are not static.The findings of this investigation can help planners and policy-makers in various fields related to climatic issues,implementing better management and planning strategies to adapt to climate change and variability over Iran.展开更多
Background: Currently, surgical resection represents the only curative treatment for pancreatic cancer(PC), however, the majority of tumors are no longer resectable by the time of diagnosis. The aim of this study was ...Background: Currently, surgical resection represents the only curative treatment for pancreatic cancer(PC), however, the majority of tumors are no longer resectable by the time of diagnosis. The aim of this study was to describe time trends and distribution of pancreaticoduodenectomies(PDs) performed for treating PC in Brazil in recent years. Methods: Data were retrospectively obtained from Brazilian Health Public System(namely DATASUS) regarding hospitalizations for PC and PD in Brazil from January 2008 to December 2015. PC and PD rates and their mortalities were estimated from DATASUS hospitalizations and analyzed for age, gender and demographic characteristics. Results: A total of 2364 PDs were retrieved. Albeit PC incidence more than doubled, the number of PDs increased only 37%. Most PDs were performed in men(52.2%) and patients between 50 and 69 years old(59.5%). Patients not surgically treated and those 70 years or older had the highest in-hospital mortality rates. The most developed regions(Southeast and South) as well as large metropolitan integrated municipalities registered 76.2% and 54.8% of the procedures, respectively. LMIM PD mortality fluctuated, ranging from 13.6% in 2008 to 11.8% in 2015. Conclusions: This study suggests a trend towards regionalization and volume-outcome relationships for PD due to PC, as large metropolitan integrated municipalities registered most of the PDs and more stable mortality rates. The substantial differences between PD and PC increasing rates reveals a limiting step on the health system resoluteness. Reduction in the number of hospital beds and late access to hospitalization, despite improvement in diagnostic methods, could at least in part explain these findings.展开更多
Trend analysis and change point detection in a time series are frequent analysis tools.Change point detection is the identification of abrupt variation in the process behaviour due to natural or artificial changes,whe...Trend analysis and change point detection in a time series are frequent analysis tools.Change point detection is the identification of abrupt variation in the process behaviour due to natural or artificial changes,whereas trend can be defined as estimation of gradual departure from past norms.We analyze the time series data in the presence of trend,using Cox-Stuart methods together with the change point algorithms.We applied the methods to the nearsurface wind speed time series for Australia as an example.The trends in near-surface wind speeds for Australia have been investigated based upon our newly developed wind speed datasets,which were constructed by blending observational data collected at various heights using local surface roughness information.The trend in wind speed at 10 m is generally increasing while at 2 m it tends to be decreasing.Significance testing,change point analysis and manual inspection of records indicate several factors may be contributing to the discrepancy,such as systematic biases accompanying instrument changes,random data errors(e.g.accumulation day error)and data sampling issues.Homogenization technique and multiple-period trend analysis based upon change point detections have thus been employed to clarify the source of the inconsistencies in wind speed trends.展开更多
Glaciers,as“solid reservoirs”,are precious resources in arid areas.The study of glaciers is of great significance to the sustainable development and management of agriculture and the economy in northern Xinjiang.The...Glaciers,as“solid reservoirs”,are precious resources in arid areas.The study of glaciers is of great significance to the sustainable development and management of agriculture and the economy in northern Xinjiang.The area of glacier distribution on the 1963 topographic map data,1975 MSS data,2000 ETM data,2008 CBERS-2 data,2014 and 2018 ETM+were collected as secondary data.According to the remote sensing survey,the glacier areas in Northern Xinjiang are identified during 1963-2018.Based on the evolution of glacier area in the past 55 years,and using two scenarios,the average annual decrease area of a region during the whole 1963-2018 and the period with the minimum reduction area,the glacier areas of Southern Tianshan Mountains,Western Tianshan Mountains,Eastern Tianshan Mountains,the Sawuer Mountains and Altai Mountains in Northern Xinjiang,and the whole northern Xinjiang in 2030,2040,2050,and 2100 are examined and predicted.In 2100,the glacier area in Northern Xinjiang may decrease by 43%-59%.展开更多
[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the variation trend of temperature in Xingtai area in recent 48 years.[Method] According to the yearly and monthly average temperature data during 1963-2010 in Xingtai,Nangong...[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the variation trend of temperature in Xingtai area in recent 48 years.[Method] According to the yearly and monthly average temperature data during 1963-2010 in Xingtai,Nangong,Shahe and Neiqiu,the change trend of temperature in Xingtai area in recent 48 years was analyzed by using the line chart and trend chart of interannual variation average temperature,climate variability.[Result] The variation trends of annual average temperature,annual average maximum temperature,annual average minimum temperature and average temperatures in spring,summer,autumn,winter in Xingtai area in recent 48 years all presented the roughly same characteristics,which yearly rose.It embodied the climatic characteristics of global warming.The rise of annual mean temperature was because that the minimum temperature and winter average temperature rose.The continuous warm winter played the decisive role for the rise of annual average temperature.[Conclusion] The research provided the theoretical basis for understanding the variation characteristics of climate in Xingtai area under the climate warming background.展开更多
文摘The“One Zone,Two Lands,One Park,and One Corridor”development strategy implemented in Guangxi,as a key component of China’s regional strategic deployment,provides opportunities and challenges for the development of local higher education.By comparing the strategic requirements,this paper uses the SWOT analysis method to conduct an in-depth analysis of the current status of higher education in Guangxi.The analysis results show that Guangxi’s higher education has certain advantages in geographical location but lacks educational resources.At the same time,the region’s higher education faces opportunities such as policy support and local industrial transformation and upgrading,but it also faces risks such as fierce external competition,mismatches between talent supply and demand,and financial constraints.Aiming at the above problems,this paper further proposes the Opportunity Capture Strategy,Adversity Breakthrough Strategy,Advantage Defense Strategy,and Disadvantage Resolution Strategy,aiming to solve the problems faced by regional higher education in serving the transformation of local development strategies.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42277191,No.42377072,No.42107087。
文摘Reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_(0)) is essential for determining crop water requirements and developing irrigation strategies.In this study,ET_(0) was calculated via the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith model,and the spatiotemporal variations in ET_(0) over China from 1960 to 2019 were analyzed.We then quantified the contributions of five driving factors(air temperature,wind speed,relative humidity,sunshine hours,and CO_(2) concentration)to the ET_(0) trends via a detrending experiment.The results revealed that nationwide ET_(0) showed no significant(p>0.05)decreasing trend from 1960 to 2019,with a trend of−8.56×10^(−2)mm a^(−2).The average temperature and wind speed were identified as the dominant factors affecting ET_(0)trends at the national scale.The contributions of the driving factors to the ET_(0) trends were ranked in the following order:average temperature(21.3%)>wind speed(−15.63%)>sunshine hours(−11.99%)>CO_(2) concentration(6.36%)>relative humidity(3.58%).Spatially,the dominant factors influencing the ET_(0) trends varied widely.In the southeastern region,average temperature and sunshine hours dominated the trends of ET_(0),whereas wind speed and average temperature were the dominant factors in the northwestern region.The findings provide valuable insights into the dominant factors affecting ET_(0)trends in China and highlight the importance of considering different driving factors in calculating crop water requirements.
基金supported by the State Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.41030744)the Specialized Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology
文摘The rapid development in Beijing, the capital of China, has resulted in serious air pollution problems. Meanwhile great efforts have been made to improve the air quality, especially since 1998. The variation in air quality under the interaction of pollution and control in this mega city has attracted much attention. We analyzed the changes in ambient air quality in Beijing since the 1980’s using the Daniel trend test based on data from long-term monitoring stations. The results showed that different pollutants displayed three trends： a decreasing trend, an increasing trend and a flat trend. SO2, dustfall, B[a]P, NO2 and PM10 fit decreasing trend pattern, while NOx showed an increasing trend, and CO, ozone pollution, total suspended particulate （TSP）, as well as Pb fit the flat trend. The cause of the general air pollution in Beijing has changed from being predominantly related to coal burning to mixed traffic exhaust and coal burning related pollution. Seasonally, the pollution level is typically higher during the heating season from November to the following March. The interaction between pollution sources change and implementation of air pollution control measures was the main driving factor that caused the variation in air quality. Changes of industrial structure and improved energy effciency, the use of clean energy and preferred use of clean coal, reduction in pollution sources, and implementation of advanced environmental standards have all contributed to the reduction in air pollution, particularly since 1998.
基金Chinese Offshore Investigation and Assessment Project, No.908-01-ST09 State Student Innovation Training Project, No.SIT-05+1 种基金 Program for New Century Excellent Talents, No.NCET-06-0446 National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.J0630535 Acknowledgement The research vessel Experiment 2 （South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences） performed the field survey and Prof. Lizhe Cai and his colleagues help to collect the sediment samples. Prof. Shu Gao and Asso. Prof. Yongzhan Zhang have provided a lot of support and valuable suggestions for this study. Miss Xiaoqin Du helped with sediment transportation and Mr. Fengyang Min assisted in the operation of related software. The comments from Dr. M. Xia （Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, NOAA, USA） have improved a lot in the presentation of the paper.
文摘There are 71 surface sediment samples collected from the eastern Beibu Gulf. The moment parameters （i.e. mean size, sorting and skewness） were obtained after applying grain size analysis. The geostatistical analysis was then applied to study the spatial autocorrelation for these parameters; while range, a parameter in the semivariogram that meters the scale of spatial autocorrelation, was estimated. The results indicated that the range for sorting coefficient was physically meaningful. The trend vectors calculated from grain size trend analysis model were consistent with the annual ocean circulation patterns and sediment transport rates according to previous studies. Therefore the range derived from the semivariogram of mean size can be used as the characteristic distance in the grain size trend analysis, which may remove the bias caused by the traditional way of basing on experiences or testing methods to get the characteristic distance. Hence the results from geostatistical analysis can also offer useful information for the determination of sediment sampling density in the future field work.
基金Supported by the Science and Technological Tackling Project of Heilongjiang Province(GB06A106)
文摘In the past 30 years,signed directed graph(SDG) ,one of the qualitative simulation technologies,has been widely applied for chemical fault diagnosis.However,SDG based fault diagnosis,as any other qualitative method,has poor diagnostic resolution.In this paper,a new method that combines SDG with qualitative trend analysis(QTA) is presented to improve the resolution.In the method,a bidirectional inference algorithm based on assumption and verification is used to find all the possible fault causes and their corresponding consistent paths in the SDG model.Then an improved QTA algorithm is used to extract and analyze the trends of nodes on the consis-tent paths found in the previous step.New consistency rules based on qualitative trends are used to find the real causes from the candidate causes.The resolution can be improved.This method combines the completeness feature of SDG with the good diagnostic resolution feature of QTA.The implementation of SDG-QTA based fault diagno-sis is done using the integrated SDG modeling,inference and post-processing software platform.Its application is illustrated on an atmospheric distillation tower unit of a simulation platform.The result shows its good applicability and efficiency.
基金This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan of China[Grant No.2016YFE0201900-02]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[Grant Nos.41575037 and 41205099]+1 种基金the National Basic Research Program of China[973 Program,Grant No.2014CB441403]Guizhou Province Scientific Research Joint Project[Grant No.G[2013]4001].
文摘Based on daily rainfall data from 26 station records,spatial and temporal variations in annual and seasonal precipitation of different rainfall intensities from 1961 to 2018 in Ningxia,China are investigated using the innovative trend analysis(ITA)method.The results show that annual precipitation increases on the northern plain but decreases in the southern mountainous area.The increase in regional annual precipitation is mainly due to an increase in weak precipitation,while the decrease in regional annual rainfall is a result of a reduction in heavy precipitation.Lowintensity precipitation shows an upward trend,while high-intensity precipitation shows a downward trend.The variation trend of extreme precipitation is more obvious.The contributions of different types of extreme precipitation vary by season.During spring,the increase in regional rainfall is mainly caused by the increase in heavy precipitation,while the decrease in regional precipitation is mainly caused by the decrease in weak precipitation.During summer and autumn,the increase in regional precipitation is caused by the increase in light precipitation,while the reduction in regional rainfall is caused by the decrease in heavy precipitation.This study provides support for water resources planning and addressing droughts and floods.
文摘To reveal the sediment transporting mechanism between the abandoned Huanghe River （Yellow River） Delta and radial sand ridges, “End Member” Model and grain size trend analysis have been employed to separate the “dynamic populations” in the surficial sediment particle spectra and to determine the possible sediment transporting pathway. The results reveal four “dynamic subpopulations”（EM1 to EM4） and two reverse sediment transporting directions： a northward transport tend from the radial sand ridges to mud patch, and a southward transport trend in deep water area outside the mud patch. Combined with the published hydrodynamic information, the transporting mechanism of dynamic populations has been discussed, and the main conclusion is that the transporting of finer subpopulations EM1 and EM2 is controlled by the “anticlockwise residual current circulation” forming during tidal cycle, which favor a northward transporting trend and the forming of mud patch on the north of radial sand ridges, while the transporting of coarser EM3 is mainly controlled by wind driven drift in winter, which favors a southward transporting direction.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(2009AA04Z133)
文摘Qualitative algebraic equations are the basis of qualitative simulation,which are used to express the dynamic behavior of steady-state continuous processes.When the values and operation of qualitative variables are redefined,qualitative algebraic equations can be transformed into signed direct graphs,which are frequently used to predict the trend of dynamic changes.However,it is difficult to use traditional qualitative algebra methods based on artificial trial and error to solve a complex problem for dynamic trends.An important aspect of modern qualitative algebra is to model and characterize complex systems with the corresponding computer-aided automatic reasoning.In this study,a qualitative affection equation based on multiple conditions is proposed,which enables the signed di-rect graphs to describe complex systems better and improves the fault diagnosis resolution.The application to an industrial case shows that the method performs well.
文摘Groundwater accounts for about half of the water use for irrigation in India.The fluctuation pattern of the groundwater level is examined by observing rainfall replenishment and monitoring wells.The southern part of Rajasthan has experienced abrupt changes in rainfall and has been highly dependent on groundwater over decades.This study presents the impact of over-dependence on groundwater usage for irrigation and other purposes,spatially and temporally.Hence,the objective of this study is to examine the groundwater level trend by using statistical analysis and geospatial technique.Rainfall factor was also studied in groundwater level fluctuation during 2009-2019.To analyze the influence of each well during recharge or withdrawal of groundwater,thiessien polygonswere generated from them.In the Jakham River basin,75 wells have been identified for water level trend study using the Mann-Kendall statistical test.The statistics of trend analysis show that 15%wells are experiencing water level decline in pre-monsoon,while very low percentage of wells have such trend during post-monsoon season.The average rate of water level decline is 0.245 m/a in pre-monsoon and 0.05 m/a in post-monsoon.The aquifer recharge potential is also decreasing by year.it is expected that such type of studies will help the policy makers to adopt advanced management practices to ensure sustainable groundwater resource management.
文摘Based on the monitoring data of precipitation and runoff series from 1953 to 2013 and groundwater exploitation from 1977 to 2013 in Jinghui Irrigation Area,especially the evolution of water resources during the growth period of main crops,the trend test of precipitation and runoff series was carried out by using Spearman rank correlation test and R/S analysis.The results showed that the annual mean precipitation and runoff and the growth period of main crops showed a downward trend,and the changes in the future were similar to those in the past;the amount of groundwater exploitation has not changed much,which is about 150 million m^3.The research results can provide scientific basis for efficient utilization and reasonable allocation of water resources in irrigation area,and provide technical support for the development of modern agriculture.
基金funded partly by University of Zabol under Grant Number UOZ-GR-9616-145.
文摘Effective disturbance indices for Hyrcanian forests in Kheyroud,Nowshahr,Iran were determined.The study area was divided into landscape mosaics based on ecosystem parameters including profile type,slope and elevation.Co-occurrence texture indices were derived as forest disturbance factors on the first five bands of Landsat TM,ETM+and OLI images for the prevailing wood harvest disturbance regimes.These indices were screened using ten types of trend analyses and used for modeling disturbance of the harvesting regime through artificial neural networks.The results show that the selected indices can be useful in distinguishing areas with different disturbance intensities and as such,used in the context of health assessment through the health distance method.The accuracy of the health maps derived from the indices[increasing disturbance]led to give rise higher disturbance classification accuracy.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41941010,41771064 and 41776195)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2016YFC1400303)the Basic Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (Grant No.2018Z001)。
文摘Long-term,ground-based daily global solar radiation (DGSR) at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica can quantitatively reveal the basic characteristics of Earth’s surface radiation balance and validate satellite data for the Antarctic region.The fixed station was established in 1989,and conventional radiation observations started much later in 2008.In this study,a random forest (RF) model for estimating DGSR is developed using ground meteorological observation data,and a highprecision,long-term DGSR dataset is constructed.Then,the trend of DGSR from 1990 to 2019 at Zhongshan Station,Antarctica is analyzed.The RF model,which performs better than other models,shows a desirable performance of DGSR hindcast estimation with an R^2 of 0.984,root-mean-square error of 1.377 MJ m^(-2),and mean absolute error of 0.828 MJ m^(-2).The trend of DGSR annual anomalies increases during 1990–2004 and then begins to decrease after 2004.Note that the maximum value of annual anomalies occurs during approximately 2004/05 and is mainly related to the days with precipitation (especially those related to good weather during the polar day period) at this station.In addition to clouds and water vapor,bad weather conditions (such as snowfall,which can result in low visibility and then decreased sunshine duration and solar radiation) are the other major factors affecting solar radiation at this station.The high-precision,longterm estimated DGSR dataset enables further study and understanding of the role of Antarctica in global climate change and the interactions between snow,ice,and atmosphere.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51605482)
文摘Fault prognosis is one of the key techniques for prognosis and health management,and an effective fault feature can improve prediction accuracy and performance. A novel approach of feature extraction for fault prognosis based on fault trend analysis was proposed in this paper. In order to describe the ability of tracking fault growth process,definitions and calculations of fault trackability was developed, and the feature which had the maximum fault trackability was selected for fault prognosis. The vibration data in bearing life tests were used to verify the effectiveness of the method was proposed. The results showed that the trackability of energy entropy for bearing fault growth was the maximum,and it was the best fault feature among selected features root mean square( RMS),kurtosis,new moment and energy entropy. The proposed approach can provide a better strategy for fault feature extraction of bearings in order to improve prediction accuracy.
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the variation trend of rainfall in Xingtai area of Hebei Province in recent 48 years. [Method] According to the annual and seasonal rainfall data in Xingtai, Nangong, Shahe and Neiqiu during 1963-2010, by using the interannual variation rainfall line chart, trend chart and climatic variability, the variation trend of rainfall in Xingtai area in recent 48 years was analyzed. [Result] The annual rainfall in Xingtai area during 1963-2010 presented yearly decrease trend, and the decrease velocity was 18.0 mm/10 a. The annual rainfall in Xingtai, Nangong, Shahe and Neiqiu roughly presented same trend (linear decrease). Except spring rainfall in Xingtai area in recent 48 years slightly increased, the rainfall in summer, autumn and winter all presented linear decrease trend. The decrease velocity of summer rainfall was the maximum. The decrease of summer rainfall played decisive role in rainfall decrease of the whole year. The decrease trend of winter rainfall wasn’t as significant as that of autumn rainfall. [Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for studying climatic variation characteristics in Xingtai area under the climatic warming background.
文摘Trend and stationarity analysis of climatic variables are essential for understanding climate variability and provide useful information about the vulnerability and future changes,especially in arid and semi-arid regions.In this study,various climatic zones of Iran were investigated to assess the relationship between the trend and the stationarity of the climatic variables.The Mann-Kendall test was considered to identify the trend,while the trend free pre-whitening approach was applied for eliminating serial correlation from the time-series.Meanwhile,time series stationarity was tested by Dickey-Fuller and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin tests.The results indicated an increasing trend for mean air temperature series at most of the stations over various climatic zones,however,after eliminating the serial correlation factor,this increasing trend changes to an insignificant decreasing trend at a 95%confidence level.The seasonal mean air temperature trend suggested a significant increase in the majority of the stations.The mean air temperature increased more in northwest towards central parts of Iran that mostly located in arid and semiarid climatic zones.Precipitation trend reveals an insignificant downward trend in most of the series over various climatic zones;furthermore,most of the stations follow a decreasing trend for seasonal precipitation.Furthermore,spatial patterns of trend and seasonality of precipitation and mean air temperature showed that the northwest parts of Iran and margin areas of the Caspian Sea are more vulnerable to the changing climate with respect to the precipitation shortfalls and warming.Stationarity analysis indicated that the stationarity of climatic series influences on their trend;so that,the series which have significant trends are not static.The findings of this investigation can help planners and policy-makers in various fields related to climatic issues,implementing better management and planning strategies to adapt to climate change and variability over Iran.
基金supported by grants from Fundacao de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro-FAPERJ [E-26/2014-202.008]Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico–CNPq [302401/2016-4]
文摘Background: Currently, surgical resection represents the only curative treatment for pancreatic cancer(PC), however, the majority of tumors are no longer resectable by the time of diagnosis. The aim of this study was to describe time trends and distribution of pancreaticoduodenectomies(PDs) performed for treating PC in Brazil in recent years. Methods: Data were retrospectively obtained from Brazilian Health Public System(namely DATASUS) regarding hospitalizations for PC and PD in Brazil from January 2008 to December 2015. PC and PD rates and their mortalities were estimated from DATASUS hospitalizations and analyzed for age, gender and demographic characteristics. Results: A total of 2364 PDs were retrieved. Albeit PC incidence more than doubled, the number of PDs increased only 37%. Most PDs were performed in men(52.2%) and patients between 50 and 69 years old(59.5%). Patients not surgically treated and those 70 years or older had the highest in-hospital mortality rates. The most developed regions(Southeast and South) as well as large metropolitan integrated municipalities registered 76.2% and 54.8% of the procedures, respectively. LMIM PD mortality fluctuated, ranging from 13.6% in 2008 to 11.8% in 2015. Conclusions: This study suggests a trend towards regionalization and volume-outcome relationships for PD due to PC, as large metropolitan integrated municipalities registered most of the PDs and more stable mortality rates. The substantial differences between PD and PC increasing rates reveals a limiting step on the health system resoluteness. Reduction in the number of hospital beds and late access to hospitalization, despite improvement in diagnostic methods, could at least in part explain these findings.
文摘Trend analysis and change point detection in a time series are frequent analysis tools.Change point detection is the identification of abrupt variation in the process behaviour due to natural or artificial changes,whereas trend can be defined as estimation of gradual departure from past norms.We analyze the time series data in the presence of trend,using Cox-Stuart methods together with the change point algorithms.We applied the methods to the nearsurface wind speed time series for Australia as an example.The trends in near-surface wind speeds for Australia have been investigated based upon our newly developed wind speed datasets,which were constructed by blending observational data collected at various heights using local surface roughness information.The trend in wind speed at 10 m is generally increasing while at 2 m it tends to be decreasing.Significance testing,change point analysis and manual inspection of records indicate several factors may be contributing to the discrepancy,such as systematic biases accompanying instrument changes,random data errors(e.g.accumulation day error)and data sampling issues.Homogenization technique and multiple-period trend analysis based upon change point detections have thus been employed to clarify the source of the inconsistencies in wind speed trends.
基金jointly supported by the“Technology and Demonstration Applications for Monitoring High Snow-glacier and Geological Hazards in Asia and the Arctic”of Earth Observations Group Project Funding(2021YFE0116800)。
文摘Glaciers,as“solid reservoirs”,are precious resources in arid areas.The study of glaciers is of great significance to the sustainable development and management of agriculture and the economy in northern Xinjiang.The area of glacier distribution on the 1963 topographic map data,1975 MSS data,2000 ETM data,2008 CBERS-2 data,2014 and 2018 ETM+were collected as secondary data.According to the remote sensing survey,the glacier areas in Northern Xinjiang are identified during 1963-2018.Based on the evolution of glacier area in the past 55 years,and using two scenarios,the average annual decrease area of a region during the whole 1963-2018 and the period with the minimum reduction area,the glacier areas of Southern Tianshan Mountains,Western Tianshan Mountains,Eastern Tianshan Mountains,the Sawuer Mountains and Altai Mountains in Northern Xinjiang,and the whole northern Xinjiang in 2030,2040,2050,and 2100 are examined and predicted.In 2100,the glacier area in Northern Xinjiang may decrease by 43%-59%.
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to analyze the variation trend of temperature in Xingtai area in recent 48 years.[Method] According to the yearly and monthly average temperature data during 1963-2010 in Xingtai,Nangong,Shahe and Neiqiu,the change trend of temperature in Xingtai area in recent 48 years was analyzed by using the line chart and trend chart of interannual variation average temperature,climate variability.[Result] The variation trends of annual average temperature,annual average maximum temperature,annual average minimum temperature and average temperatures in spring,summer,autumn,winter in Xingtai area in recent 48 years all presented the roughly same characteristics,which yearly rose.It embodied the climatic characteristics of global warming.The rise of annual mean temperature was because that the minimum temperature and winter average temperature rose.The continuous warm winter played the decisive role for the rise of annual average temperature.[Conclusion] The research provided the theoretical basis for understanding the variation characteristics of climate in Xingtai area under the climate warming background.
