Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
Population shrinkage of alpine cushion plants with ongoing climate warming has been empirically confirmed.Since cushion plants play important roles in sustaining alpine plant community and ecosystem functions,their po...Population shrinkage of alpine cushion plants with ongoing climate warming has been empirically confirmed.Since cushion plants play important roles in sustaining alpine plant community and ecosystem functions,their population dynamics may directly influence the future alpine ecosystems.However,little is known about how climate warming affect cushion population recruitment,especially at early life-history stages.In this study,we conducted a laboratory simulation of climate warming to detect the effects of warming temperature and associated moisture and light changes on seed germination and seedling growth of the typical alpine cushion plant Arenaria oreophila.Results suggested that increasing temperature indeed exerted strong constraints on the population recruitment processes.Specifically,increased temperatures could quickly initialize seed germination(4e6 days at higher temperatures vs.29 e32 days at low temperature,respectively,after sowing),accelerate them to reach the maximum germination percentage(9e19 days at higher temperatures vs.57e86 days at low temperature,respectively,after sowing)and significantly accelerate seedling growth rate.However,higher temperatures accelerated seedling mortality(more than 80%).In addition,lower light availability also increased seedling mortality though it could generally increase the final seed germination percentage.The effects of water might be dependent on temperature and light.All results suggested that cushion A.oreophila is quite sensitive to climate warming which strongly constrains its seedling establishment process.We,therefore,speculate that the continuing climate warming in future will exert uncertain risks in the persistence of cushion A.oreophila,possibly by constraining the process of seedling recruitments.展开更多
Models disagree on a significant number of responses to climate change,such as climate feedback,regional changes,or the strength of equilibrium climate sensitivity.Emergent constraints aim to reduce these uncertaintie...Models disagree on a significant number of responses to climate change,such as climate feedback,regional changes,or the strength of equilibrium climate sensitivity.Emergent constraints aim to reduce these uncertainties by finding links between the inter-model spread in an observable predictor and climate projections.In this paper,the concepts underlying this framework are recalled with an emphasis on the statistical inference used for narrowing uncertainties,and a review of emergent constraints found in the last two decades.Potential links between highlighted predictors are explored,especially those targeting uncertainty reductions in climate sensitivity,cloud feedback,and changes of the hydrological cycle.Yet the disagreement across emergent constraints suggests that the spread in climate sensitivity can not be significantly narrowed.This calls for weighting the realism of emergent constraints by quantifying the level of physical understanding explaining the relationship.This would also permit more efficient model evaluation and better targeted model development.In the context of the upcoming CMIP6 model intercomparison a growing number of new predictors and uncertainty reductions is expected,which call for robust statistical inferences that allow cross-validation of more likely estimates.展开更多
High-speed railways are very important in global transportation.However,the railway subgrade is significantly affected by the environment due to its exposure to the atmosphere.At present,global warming is the primary ...High-speed railways are very important in global transportation.However,the railway subgrade is significantly affected by the environment due to its exposure to the atmosphere.At present,global warming is the primary trend in world climate change and seriously damages railway infrastructure.Owing to the coupling effect of extreme environmental and train loads,various subgrade problems tend to arise,such as settlement,ballast fouling,and mud pumping,thus inducing frequent railway accidents and reducing travel safety.Insights into the problems triggered by extreme climate and train loads are critical to the design and long-term operation of high-speed railway subgrades.This study therefore presents a detailed survey of recent advances in typical subgrade problems through analyzing the problem formation mechanisms and influences.Traditional and emerging detection/monitoring technologies in respect of subgrade problems are discussed in detail,as well as pre-accident and post-accident maintenance methods.Finally,according to the existing challenges in long-term subgrade shakedown assessment,an outlook on open opportunities is provided for future research.展开更多
Agricultural pests cause enormous losses in annual agricultural production.Understanding the evolutionary responses and adaptive capacity of agricultural pests under climate change is crucial for establishing sustaina...Agricultural pests cause enormous losses in annual agricultural production.Understanding the evolutionary responses and adaptive capacity of agricultural pests under climate change is crucial for establishing sustainable and environmentally friendly agricultural pest management.In this study,we integrate climate modeling and landscape genomics to investigate the distributional dynamics of the cotton bollworm(Helicoverpa armigera)in the adaptation to local environments and resilience to future climate change.Notably,the predicted inhabitable areas with higher suitability for the cotton bollworm could be eight times larger in the coming decades.Climate change is one of the factors driving the dynamics of distribution and population differentiation of the cotton bollworm.Approximately 19,000 years ago,the cotton bollworm expanded from its ancestral African population,followed by gradual occupations of the European,Asian,Oceanian,and American continents.Furthermore,we identify seven subpopulations with high dispersal and adaptability which may have an increased risk of invasion potential.Additionally,a large number of candidate genes and SNPs linked to climatic adaptation were mapped.These findings could inform sustainable pest management strategies in the face of climate change,aiding future pest forecasting and management planning.展开更多
Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regime...Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regimes and hydrological extremes to inform long-term water resources management strategies for the Kupang Catchment.Utilizing precipitation and air temperature data from general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)and employing bias correction techniques,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model was employed to analyze climate-induced changes in hydrological fluxes,specifically streamflow.Results indicated a consistent increase in monthly streamflow during the wet season,with a substantial rise of 22.8%,alongside a slight decrease of 18.0%during the dry season.Moreover,both the frequency and severity of extremely low and high flows were projected to intensify by approximately 50%and 70%,respectively,for a 20-year return period,suggesting heightened flood and drought risks in the future.The observed declining trend in low flow,by up to 11%,indicated the potential for long-term groundwater depletion exacerbating the threat of land subsidence and coastal flooding,especially in areas with inadequate surface water management policies and infrastructure.展开更多
As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate c...As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate change.The evidence about the impacts of climate change on the environment and human health may encourage China to take more decisive action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts.展开更多
Food systems are deeply affected by climate change and air pollution,while being key contributors to these environmental challenges.Understanding the complex interactions among food systems,climate change,and air poll...Food systems are deeply affected by climate change and air pollution,while being key contributors to these environmental challenges.Understanding the complex interactions among food systems,climate change,and air pollution is crucial for mitigating climate change,improving air quality,and promoting the sustainable development of food systems.However,the literature lacks a comprehensive review of these interactions,particularly in the current phase of rapid development in the field.To address this gap,this study systematically reviews recent research on the impacts of climate change and air pollution on food systems,as well as the greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions from agri-food systems and their contribution to global climate change and air pollution.In addition,this study summarizes various strategies for mitigation and adaptation,including adjustments in agricultural practices and food supply chains.Profound changes in food systems are urgently needed to enhance adaptability and reduce emissions.This review offers a critical overview of current research on the interactions among food systems,climate change,and air pollution and highlights future research directions to support the transition to sustainable food systems.展开更多
This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has ...This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has seen a remarkable run of extreme precipitation events and resulting impacts. Here, we provide an overview of the most notable extreme events of the year, including extreme precipitation and floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The characteristics and impacts of these extreme events are summarized, followed by discussion on the physical drivers and the role of global warming.Finally, we also discuss the future prospects in extreme event studies, including impact-based perspectives, challenges in attribution of precipitation extremes, and the existing gap to minimize impacts from climate extremes.展开更多
Aboveground biomass(AGB)and belowground biomass(BGB)are key components of carbon storage,yet their responses to future climate changes remain poorly understood,particularly in China.Understanding these dynamics is ess...Aboveground biomass(AGB)and belowground biomass(BGB)are key components of carbon storage,yet their responses to future climate changes remain poorly understood,particularly in China.Understanding these dynamics is essential for global carbon cycle modeling and ecosystem management.This study integrates field observations,machine learning,and multi-source remote sensing data to reconstruct the distributions of AGB and BGB in China from 2000 to 2020.Then CMIP6 was used to predict the distribution of China under three SSP scenarios(SSP1-1.9,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)from 2020 to 2100 to fill the existing knowledge gap.The predictive accuracy for AGB(R^(2)=0.85)was significantly higher than for BGB(R^(2)=0.48),likely due to the greater complexity of modeling belowground dynamics.NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)and soil organic carbon density(SOC)were identified as the primary drivers of AGB and BGB changes.During 2000-2020,AGB in China remained stable at approximately 10.69 Pg C,while BGB was around 5.06 Pg C.Forest ecosystems contributed 88.52% of AGB and 43.83% of BGB.AGB showed a relatively slow annual increase,while BGB demonstrated a significant annual growth rate of approximately 37 Tg C yr^(−1).Under the low-emission scenario,both AGB and BGB show fluctuations and steady growth,particularly in South China and the northwestern part of Northeast China.Under the moderate-emission scenario,AGB and BGB show significant declines and increases,respectively.In the high-emission scenario,both AGB and BGB decline significantly,particularly in the southwestern and central regions.These results provide valuable insights into ecosystem carbon dynamics under climate change,emphasizing the relatively low responsiveness of AGB and BGB to climatic variability,and offering guidance for sustainable land use and management strategies.展开更多
We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other ...We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.展开更多
Based on a series of aqua-planet and air–sea coupled experiments,the influence of unrealistic treatment of water substance in the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,spectral version 2（FGOALS-s2）,o...Based on a series of aqua-planet and air–sea coupled experiments,the influence of unrealistic treatment of water substance in the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,spectral version 2（FGOALS-s2）,on the model＇s climate sensitivity is investigated in this paper.Because the model does not adopt an explicit microphysics scheme,the detrained water substance from the convection scheme is converted back to the humidity.This procedure could lead to an additional increase of water vapor in the atmosphere,which could strengthen the model＇s climate sensitivity.Further sensitivity experiments confirm this deduction.After removing the water vapor converted from the detrained water substance,the water vapor reduced significantly in the upper troposphere and the high clouds also reduced.Quantitative calculations show that the water vapor reduced almost 10% of the total water vapor,and 50% at 150 h Pa,when the detrained water substance was removed,contributing to the 30% atmospheric surface temperature increase.This study calls for an explicit microphysics scheme to be introduced into the model in order to handle the detrained water vapor and thus improve the model＇s simulation skill.展开更多
Climate change is significantly impacting cotton production in the Tarim River Basin.The study investigated the climate change characteristics from 2021 to 2100 using climate change datasets simulated per the coupled ...Climate change is significantly impacting cotton production in the Tarim River Basin.The study investigated the climate change characteristics from 2021 to 2100 using climate change datasets simulated per the coupled model inter-comparison project phase six(CMIP6)climatic patterns under the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.The DSSAT-CROPGROCotton model,along with stepwise multiple regression analyses,was used to simulate changes in the potential yield of seed cotton due to climate change.The results show that while future temperatures in the Tarim River Basin will rise significantly,changes in precipitation and radiation during the cotton-growing season are minimal.Seed cotton yields are more sensitive to low temperatures than to precipitation and radiation.The potential yield of seed cotton under the SSP2-4.5 scenario would increase by 14.8%,23.7%,29.0%,and 29.4%in the 2030S,2050S,2070S,and 2090S,respectively.In contrast,under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the potential yield of seed cotton would see increases of 17.5%,27.1%,30.1%,and 22.6%,respectively.Except for the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,future seed cotton production can withstand a 10%to 20%deficit in irrigation.These findings will help develop climate change adaptation strategies for cotton cultivation.展开更多
In Niger, farms have been facing negative effects of climate change for several decades. The objective of this work is to assess the vulnerability of farms in Tillabery department by proposing an adaptation approach. ...In Niger, farms have been facing negative effects of climate change for several decades. The objective of this work is to assess the vulnerability of farms in Tillabery department by proposing an adaptation approach. A five-step method and descriptive analysis were used on a sample of 250 farmers. The degree of damage caused by pests and crop diseases is significant, with respective proportions of 52.50% and 40.40%. It appears that the main climate risk factors for vulnerability are droughts, floods, soil degradation, and pest invasions. Additionally, the average level of exposure to agricultural operations is very high, with an index of 0.6. The sensitivity index remained constant in the range of 0.3 to 0.6 and is significant (reaching an index of 0.8). However, 61.2% of farms have a medium level of vulnerability and 33.3% have a high vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Nonetheless, a concerning trend regarding the vulnerability of farms has been observed. To assist policymakers and development actors in improving the vulnerability level of these production units, four phases of action are proposed: a diagnostic phase, evaluation, estimation of adaptation needs, implementation, and proper monitoring of actions.展开更多
Climate change is becoming a major issue for agriculture and the well-being of farmers. The objective of this article is to identify and analyze the production factors that may influence the competitiveness level of a...Climate change is becoming a major issue for agriculture and the well-being of farmers. The objective of this article is to identify and analyze the production factors that may influence the competitiveness level of agricultural operations, as well as to establish a structural and functional typology of these farms. Using Principal component analysis (PCA) combined with hierarchical ascending classification (HAC) on 250 farmers, the study was able to set farms typology. Furthermore, variance analysis and econometric models (linear et quadratic) were also used for in-depth analysis. The results show the existence of three groups of farm (GA, GB, GC): GA (19.7%), GB (65.3%), and GC (15%). Drought spells and flood are the main climatic risks affecting rain-fed farm operations. For irrigated crops such as rice, the major constraints remain bird attacks, the invasion of pests and nematodes. Climate variability significantly increases the prevalence of morbidities in the region by raising the number of inactive individuals. This significantly and differentially affects the outcomes of these assets. Health expenditures represent a significant share (GB: 12% and GC: 11%) and a non-negligible share (GA: 8.4%). However, larger participations (GC) show better economic performance due to economies of scale, but all categories would benefit from adopting appropriate strategies to reduce losses and increase their resilience.展开更多
The department of Tillabéri is primarily affected by climatic phenomena, impacting crop yields, growing cycles, and consequently, the economic outcomes of agricultural operations. The objective of this study is t...The department of Tillabéri is primarily affected by climatic phenomena, impacting crop yields, growing cycles, and consequently, the economic outcomes of agricultural operations. The objective of this study is to analyze these impacts of climate disruption on the economic performance of farms. The methodology adopted for this study combined documentary research with field surveys conducted on a sample of 250 randomly selected farmers. The analytical methods used mainly consisted of linear regression, profitability calculations, and linear programming. The findings indicate that all productions across different crops have experienced a decrease over the past 30 years. For instance, the production of millet, sorghum, and cowpea, which were respectively 812 kg/ha, 260 kg/ha, and 100 kg/ha between the last 30 and 20 years, has now dropped to 412 kg/ha, 106 kg/ha, and 46 kg/ha respectively. A negative and significant effect on agricultural net margin was observed due to variables such as flooding, drought, pest invasion in rice fields, and temperature changes. Smallholder farms show a relatively low margin (46%) to cover their fixed costs, which may indicate a risk if fixed expenses are high. Furthermore, the analysis results from linear programming reveal that farmers could achieve an additional net profit per hectare of 116,861 FCFA, 217201.5 FCFA, and 291988.2 FCFA respectively for small, medium, and large producers by managing variable costs and health-related expenses for households.展开更多
Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assesse...Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the TP.The best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,respectively.The corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),respectively.The increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained projections.Spatially,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–E.The wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃under all three scenarios during 2050–2099.This study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.展开更多
The intertwined challenges of climate change, resource scarcity, and conflict require innovative integrated solutions that address both environmental and societal vulnerabilities. Technological innovation offers a tra...The intertwined challenges of climate change, resource scarcity, and conflict require innovative integrated solutions that address both environmental and societal vulnerabilities. Technological innovation offers a transformative pathway for climate change adaptation and peacebuilding, with emphasis on a holistic approach to managing resource conflicts and environmental challenges. This paper explores the synergies between emerging technologies and strategic framework to mitigate climate-induced tensions and foster resilience. It focuses on the application of renewable energy systems to reduce dependence on contested resources, blockchain technology to ensure transparency in climate finance, equitable resource allocation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance early warning systems for climate-related disaster and conflicts. Additionally, technologies such as precision agriculture and remote sensing empower communities to optimize resource use, adapt to shifting environmental conditions, and reduce competition over scares resources. These innovations with inclusive governance and local capacity-building are very primordial. Ultimately, the convergence of technology, policy, and local participation offers a scalable and replicable model for addressing the dual challenges of environmental degradation and instability, thereby paving the way for a more sustainable and peaceful future.展开更多
The G20 Youth Summit(Y20)took place in Johannesburg,South Africa,from 18 to 23 August.Sun Ruoshui,a research assistant from the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development,Tsinghua University,was appointed...The G20 Youth Summit(Y20)took place in Johannesburg,South Africa,from 18 to 23 August.Sun Ruoshui,a research assistant from the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development,Tsinghua University,was appointed by the All-China Youth Federation to represent China in the discussions on Climate and Environmental Sustainability.Specialising in global climate governance,international climate negotiation and climate policy,Sun has previously served as a member of the Chinese delegation to the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference(COP28)and 2024 Bonn Subsidiary Bodies Meeting.展开更多
I never thought I'd become a climate refugee.After moving my family from drought and wildfire-stricken California to the so-called“climate haven”of Asheville,NC,I thought we were safe.But just two months after s...I never thought I'd become a climate refugee.After moving my family from drought and wildfire-stricken California to the so-called“climate haven”of Asheville,NC,I thought we were safe.But just two months after settling into our lovely and wooded community with mild weather,we had to flee.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(2019QZKK0502 to H.S.)the Yunnan Applied Basic Research Project(202001AT070060 to J.G.C.)+1 种基金the CAS“Light ofWest China”Program(J.G.C.)the Young Academic and Technical Leader Raising Foundation of Yunnan Province(202205AC160053 to J.G.C.).
文摘Population shrinkage of alpine cushion plants with ongoing climate warming has been empirically confirmed.Since cushion plants play important roles in sustaining alpine plant community and ecosystem functions,their population dynamics may directly influence the future alpine ecosystems.However,little is known about how climate warming affect cushion population recruitment,especially at early life-history stages.In this study,we conducted a laboratory simulation of climate warming to detect the effects of warming temperature and associated moisture and light changes on seed germination and seedling growth of the typical alpine cushion plant Arenaria oreophila.Results suggested that increasing temperature indeed exerted strong constraints on the population recruitment processes.Specifically,increased temperatures could quickly initialize seed germination(4e6 days at higher temperatures vs.29 e32 days at low temperature,respectively,after sowing),accelerate them to reach the maximum germination percentage(9e19 days at higher temperatures vs.57e86 days at low temperature,respectively,after sowing)and significantly accelerate seedling growth rate.However,higher temperatures accelerated seedling mortality(more than 80%).In addition,lower light availability also increased seedling mortality though it could generally increase the final seed germination percentage.The effects of water might be dependent on temperature and light.All results suggested that cushion A.oreophila is quite sensitive to climate warming which strongly constrains its seedling establishment process.We,therefore,speculate that the continuing climate warming in future will exert uncertain risks in the persistence of cushion A.oreophila,possibly by constraining the process of seedling recruitments.
基金funding from the Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR) [grant HIGH-TUNE ANR-16-CE01-0010]
文摘Models disagree on a significant number of responses to climate change,such as climate feedback,regional changes,or the strength of equilibrium climate sensitivity.Emergent constraints aim to reduce these uncertainties by finding links between the inter-model spread in an observable predictor and climate projections.In this paper,the concepts underlying this framework are recalled with an emphasis on the statistical inference used for narrowing uncertainties,and a review of emergent constraints found in the last two decades.Potential links between highlighted predictors are explored,especially those targeting uncertainty reductions in climate sensitivity,cloud feedback,and changes of the hydrological cycle.Yet the disagreement across emergent constraints suggests that the spread in climate sensitivity can not be significantly narrowed.This calls for weighting the realism of emergent constraints by quantifying the level of physical understanding explaining the relationship.This would also permit more efficient model evaluation and better targeted model development.In the context of the upcoming CMIP6 model intercomparison a growing number of new predictors and uncertainty reductions is expected,which call for robust statistical inferences that allow cross-validation of more likely estimates.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52125803 and 51988101).
文摘High-speed railways are very important in global transportation.However,the railway subgrade is significantly affected by the environment due to its exposure to the atmosphere.At present,global warming is the primary trend in world climate change and seriously damages railway infrastructure.Owing to the coupling effect of extreme environmental and train loads,various subgrade problems tend to arise,such as settlement,ballast fouling,and mud pumping,thus inducing frequent railway accidents and reducing travel safety.Insights into the problems triggered by extreme climate and train loads are critical to the design and long-term operation of high-speed railway subgrades.This study therefore presents a detailed survey of recent advances in typical subgrade problems through analyzing the problem formation mechanisms and influences.Traditional and emerging detection/monitoring technologies in respect of subgrade problems are discussed in detail,as well as pre-accident and post-accident maintenance methods.Finally,according to the existing challenges in long-term subgrade shakedown assessment,an outlook on open opportunities is provided for future research.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32372546)Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(KQTD20180411143628272)+1 种基金the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and STI 2030-Major Projects(2022ZD04021)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFD2200700)。
文摘Agricultural pests cause enormous losses in annual agricultural production.Understanding the evolutionary responses and adaptive capacity of agricultural pests under climate change is crucial for establishing sustainable and environmentally friendly agricultural pest management.In this study,we integrate climate modeling and landscape genomics to investigate the distributional dynamics of the cotton bollworm(Helicoverpa armigera)in the adaptation to local environments and resilience to future climate change.Notably,the predicted inhabitable areas with higher suitability for the cotton bollworm could be eight times larger in the coming decades.Climate change is one of the factors driving the dynamics of distribution and population differentiation of the cotton bollworm.Approximately 19,000 years ago,the cotton bollworm expanded from its ancestral African population,followed by gradual occupations of the European,Asian,Oceanian,and American continents.Furthermore,we identify seven subpopulations with high dispersal and adaptability which may have an increased risk of invasion potential.Additionally,a large number of candidate genes and SNPs linked to climatic adaptation were mapped.These findings could inform sustainable pest management strategies in the face of climate change,aiding future pest forecasting and management planning.
基金supported by the funding Riset Unggulan Daerah 2022 of the Bureau of Development Planning and Research in Central Java Province(BAPPEDA Provinsi Jawa Tengah).
文摘Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regimes and hydrological extremes to inform long-term water resources management strategies for the Kupang Catchment.Utilizing precipitation and air temperature data from general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)and employing bias correction techniques,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model was employed to analyze climate-induced changes in hydrological fluxes,specifically streamflow.Results indicated a consistent increase in monthly streamflow during the wet season,with a substantial rise of 22.8%,alongside a slight decrease of 18.0%during the dry season.Moreover,both the frequency and severity of extremely low and high flows were projected to intensify by approximately 50%and 70%,respectively,for a 20-year return period,suggesting heightened flood and drought risks in the future.The observed declining trend in low flow,by up to 11%,indicated the potential for long-term groundwater depletion exacerbating the threat of land subsidence and coastal flooding,especially in areas with inadequate surface water management policies and infrastructure.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.82025030,No.72394404)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3702700)the National Research Program for Key Issues in Air Pollution Control of China(No.DQGG0401).
文摘As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate change.The evidence about the impacts of climate change on the environment and human health may encourage China to take more decisive action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42277087,42130708,42471021,42277482,and 42361144876)the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2024A1515012550)+3 种基金the Hainan Institute of National Park grant(KY-23ZK01)the Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School Cross-disciplinary Research and Innovation Fund Research Plan(JC2022011)the Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(JCYJ20240813112106009 and ZDSYS20220606100806014)the Scientific Research Start-up Funds(QD2021030C)from Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School。
文摘Food systems are deeply affected by climate change and air pollution,while being key contributors to these environmental challenges.Understanding the complex interactions among food systems,climate change,and air pollution is crucial for mitigating climate change,improving air quality,and promoting the sustainable development of food systems.However,the literature lacks a comprehensive review of these interactions,particularly in the current phase of rapid development in the field.To address this gap,this study systematically reviews recent research on the impacts of climate change and air pollution on food systems,as well as the greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions from agri-food systems and their contribution to global climate change and air pollution.In addition,this study summarizes various strategies for mitigation and adaptation,including adjustments in agricultural practices and food supply chains.Profound changes in food systems are urgently needed to enhance adaptability and reduce emissions.This review offers a critical overview of current research on the interactions among food systems,climate change,and air pollution and highlights future research directions to support the transition to sustainable food systems.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42422502 and 42275038)the China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program (Grant No.QBZ202306)funded by the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China project under the International Science Partnerships Fund (ISPF)。
文摘This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has seen a remarkable run of extreme precipitation events and resulting impacts. Here, we provide an overview of the most notable extreme events of the year, including extreme precipitation and floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The characteristics and impacts of these extreme events are summarized, followed by discussion on the physical drivers and the role of global warming.Finally, we also discuss the future prospects in extreme event studies, including impact-based perspectives, challenges in attribution of precipitation extremes, and the existing gap to minimize impacts from climate extremes.
基金supported by the Tianchi Talent-Young Doctor Program of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,the Innovation Training Program for Undergraduates at the Autonomous Region Level in 2024(Grant No.S202410755009)the Innovation Training Program for Undergraduates at the University Level in 2024(Grant No.XJU-SRT-24008)+3 种基金the National Innovation Training Program for College Students in 2024(Grant No.202410755009)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42401065)the Basic and Applied Basic Research Program of Guangdong Province,China(Grant No.2023A1515011273)the Research Projects of the Department of Education of Guangdong Province(Grant No.2023KTSCX315).
文摘Aboveground biomass(AGB)and belowground biomass(BGB)are key components of carbon storage,yet their responses to future climate changes remain poorly understood,particularly in China.Understanding these dynamics is essential for global carbon cycle modeling and ecosystem management.This study integrates field observations,machine learning,and multi-source remote sensing data to reconstruct the distributions of AGB and BGB in China from 2000 to 2020.Then CMIP6 was used to predict the distribution of China under three SSP scenarios(SSP1-1.9,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)from 2020 to 2100 to fill the existing knowledge gap.The predictive accuracy for AGB(R^(2)=0.85)was significantly higher than for BGB(R^(2)=0.48),likely due to the greater complexity of modeling belowground dynamics.NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)and soil organic carbon density(SOC)were identified as the primary drivers of AGB and BGB changes.During 2000-2020,AGB in China remained stable at approximately 10.69 Pg C,while BGB was around 5.06 Pg C.Forest ecosystems contributed 88.52% of AGB and 43.83% of BGB.AGB showed a relatively slow annual increase,while BGB demonstrated a significant annual growth rate of approximately 37 Tg C yr^(−1).Under the low-emission scenario,both AGB and BGB show fluctuations and steady growth,particularly in South China and the northwestern part of Northeast China.Under the moderate-emission scenario,AGB and BGB show significant declines and increases,respectively.In the high-emission scenario,both AGB and BGB decline significantly,particularly in the southwestern and central regions.These results provide valuable insights into ecosystem carbon dynamics under climate change,emphasizing the relatively low responsiveness of AGB and BGB to climatic variability,and offering guidance for sustainable land use and management strategies.
文摘We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.
基金jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China[grant number 2014CB953904]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41405091 and 91337110]+1 种基金the Open Projects of the Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of the Ministry of Education[grant number KLME1405]the Strategic Leading Science Projects of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA11010402]
文摘Based on a series of aqua-planet and air–sea coupled experiments,the influence of unrealistic treatment of water substance in the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,spectral version 2（FGOALS-s2）,on the model＇s climate sensitivity is investigated in this paper.Because the model does not adopt an explicit microphysics scheme,the detrained water substance from the convection scheme is converted back to the humidity.This procedure could lead to an additional increase of water vapor in the atmosphere,which could strengthen the model＇s climate sensitivity.Further sensitivity experiments confirm this deduction.After removing the water vapor converted from the detrained water substance,the water vapor reduced significantly in the upper troposphere and the high clouds also reduced.Quantitative calculations show that the water vapor reduced almost 10% of the total water vapor,and 50% at 150 h Pa,when the detrained water substance was removed,contributing to the 30% atmospheric surface temperature increase.This study calls for an explicit microphysics scheme to be introduced into the model in order to handle the detrained water vapor and thus improve the model＇s simulation skill.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Program of Xinjiang Construction Corps(No.2024AB064)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41975044,42001314)。
文摘Climate change is significantly impacting cotton production in the Tarim River Basin.The study investigated the climate change characteristics from 2021 to 2100 using climate change datasets simulated per the coupled model inter-comparison project phase six(CMIP6)climatic patterns under the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.The DSSAT-CROPGROCotton model,along with stepwise multiple regression analyses,was used to simulate changes in the potential yield of seed cotton due to climate change.The results show that while future temperatures in the Tarim River Basin will rise significantly,changes in precipitation and radiation during the cotton-growing season are minimal.Seed cotton yields are more sensitive to low temperatures than to precipitation and radiation.The potential yield of seed cotton under the SSP2-4.5 scenario would increase by 14.8%,23.7%,29.0%,and 29.4%in the 2030S,2050S,2070S,and 2090S,respectively.In contrast,under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the potential yield of seed cotton would see increases of 17.5%,27.1%,30.1%,and 22.6%,respectively.Except for the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,future seed cotton production can withstand a 10%to 20%deficit in irrigation.These findings will help develop climate change adaptation strategies for cotton cultivation.
文摘In Niger, farms have been facing negative effects of climate change for several decades. The objective of this work is to assess the vulnerability of farms in Tillabery department by proposing an adaptation approach. A five-step method and descriptive analysis were used on a sample of 250 farmers. The degree of damage caused by pests and crop diseases is significant, with respective proportions of 52.50% and 40.40%. It appears that the main climate risk factors for vulnerability are droughts, floods, soil degradation, and pest invasions. Additionally, the average level of exposure to agricultural operations is very high, with an index of 0.6. The sensitivity index remained constant in the range of 0.3 to 0.6 and is significant (reaching an index of 0.8). However, 61.2% of farms have a medium level of vulnerability and 33.3% have a high vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Nonetheless, a concerning trend regarding the vulnerability of farms has been observed. To assist policymakers and development actors in improving the vulnerability level of these production units, four phases of action are proposed: a diagnostic phase, evaluation, estimation of adaptation needs, implementation, and proper monitoring of actions.
文摘Climate change is becoming a major issue for agriculture and the well-being of farmers. The objective of this article is to identify and analyze the production factors that may influence the competitiveness level of agricultural operations, as well as to establish a structural and functional typology of these farms. Using Principal component analysis (PCA) combined with hierarchical ascending classification (HAC) on 250 farmers, the study was able to set farms typology. Furthermore, variance analysis and econometric models (linear et quadratic) were also used for in-depth analysis. The results show the existence of three groups of farm (GA, GB, GC): GA (19.7%), GB (65.3%), and GC (15%). Drought spells and flood are the main climatic risks affecting rain-fed farm operations. For irrigated crops such as rice, the major constraints remain bird attacks, the invasion of pests and nematodes. Climate variability significantly increases the prevalence of morbidities in the region by raising the number of inactive individuals. This significantly and differentially affects the outcomes of these assets. Health expenditures represent a significant share (GB: 12% and GC: 11%) and a non-negligible share (GA: 8.4%). However, larger participations (GC) show better economic performance due to economies of scale, but all categories would benefit from adopting appropriate strategies to reduce losses and increase their resilience.
文摘The department of Tillabéri is primarily affected by climatic phenomena, impacting crop yields, growing cycles, and consequently, the economic outcomes of agricultural operations. The objective of this study is to analyze these impacts of climate disruption on the economic performance of farms. The methodology adopted for this study combined documentary research with field surveys conducted on a sample of 250 randomly selected farmers. The analytical methods used mainly consisted of linear regression, profitability calculations, and linear programming. The findings indicate that all productions across different crops have experienced a decrease over the past 30 years. For instance, the production of millet, sorghum, and cowpea, which were respectively 812 kg/ha, 260 kg/ha, and 100 kg/ha between the last 30 and 20 years, has now dropped to 412 kg/ha, 106 kg/ha, and 46 kg/ha respectively. A negative and significant effect on agricultural net margin was observed due to variables such as flooding, drought, pest invasion in rice fields, and temperature changes. Smallholder farms show a relatively low margin (46%) to cover their fixed costs, which may indicate a risk if fixed expenses are high. Furthermore, the analysis results from linear programming reveal that farmers could achieve an additional net profit per hectare of 116,861 FCFA, 217201.5 FCFA, and 291988.2 FCFA respectively for small, medium, and large producers by managing variable costs and health-related expenses for households.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program[grant number 2019QZKK0102]the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number 060GJHZ2023079GC].
文摘Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the TP.The best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,respectively.The corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),respectively.The increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained projections.Spatially,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–E.The wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃under all three scenarios during 2050–2099.This study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.
文摘The intertwined challenges of climate change, resource scarcity, and conflict require innovative integrated solutions that address both environmental and societal vulnerabilities. Technological innovation offers a transformative pathway for climate change adaptation and peacebuilding, with emphasis on a holistic approach to managing resource conflicts and environmental challenges. This paper explores the synergies between emerging technologies and strategic framework to mitigate climate-induced tensions and foster resilience. It focuses on the application of renewable energy systems to reduce dependence on contested resources, blockchain technology to ensure transparency in climate finance, equitable resource allocation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance early warning systems for climate-related disaster and conflicts. Additionally, technologies such as precision agriculture and remote sensing empower communities to optimize resource use, adapt to shifting environmental conditions, and reduce competition over scares resources. These innovations with inclusive governance and local capacity-building are very primordial. Ultimately, the convergence of technology, policy, and local participation offers a scalable and replicable model for addressing the dual challenges of environmental degradation and instability, thereby paving the way for a more sustainable and peaceful future.
文摘The G20 Youth Summit(Y20)took place in Johannesburg,South Africa,from 18 to 23 August.Sun Ruoshui,a research assistant from the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development,Tsinghua University,was appointed by the All-China Youth Federation to represent China in the discussions on Climate and Environmental Sustainability.Specialising in global climate governance,international climate negotiation and climate policy,Sun has previously served as a member of the Chinese delegation to the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference(COP28)and 2024 Bonn Subsidiary Bodies Meeting.
文摘I never thought I'd become a climate refugee.After moving my family from drought and wildfire-stricken California to the so-called“climate haven”of Asheville,NC,I thought we were safe.But just two months after settling into our lovely and wooded community with mild weather,we had to flee.
