Agricultural pests cause enormous losses in annual agricultural production.Understanding the evolutionary responses and adaptive capacity of agricultural pests under climate change is crucial for establishing sustaina...Agricultural pests cause enormous losses in annual agricultural production.Understanding the evolutionary responses and adaptive capacity of agricultural pests under climate change is crucial for establishing sustainable and environmentally friendly agricultural pest management.In this study,we integrate climate modeling and landscape genomics to investigate the distributional dynamics of the cotton bollworm(Helicoverpa armigera)in the adaptation to local environments and resilience to future climate change.Notably,the predicted inhabitable areas with higher suitability for the cotton bollworm could be eight times larger in the coming decades.Climate change is one of the factors driving the dynamics of distribution and population differentiation of the cotton bollworm.Approximately 19,000 years ago,the cotton bollworm expanded from its ancestral African population,followed by gradual occupations of the European,Asian,Oceanian,and American continents.Furthermore,we identify seven subpopulations with high dispersal and adaptability which may have an increased risk of invasion potential.Additionally,a large number of candidate genes and SNPs linked to climatic adaptation were mapped.These findings could inform sustainable pest management strategies in the face of climate change,aiding future pest forecasting and management planning.展开更多
As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate c...As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate change.The evidence about the impacts of climate change on the environment and human health may encourage China to take more decisive action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts.展开更多
Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regime...Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regimes and hydrological extremes to inform long-term water resources management strategies for the Kupang Catchment.Utilizing precipitation and air temperature data from general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)and employing bias correction techniques,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model was employed to analyze climate-induced changes in hydrological fluxes,specifically streamflow.Results indicated a consistent increase in monthly streamflow during the wet season,with a substantial rise of 22.8%,alongside a slight decrease of 18.0%during the dry season.Moreover,both the frequency and severity of extremely low and high flows were projected to intensify by approximately 50%and 70%,respectively,for a 20-year return period,suggesting heightened flood and drought risks in the future.The observed declining trend in low flow,by up to 11%,indicated the potential for long-term groundwater depletion exacerbating the threat of land subsidence and coastal flooding,especially in areas with inadequate surface water management policies and infrastructure.展开更多
This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has ...This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has seen a remarkable run of extreme precipitation events and resulting impacts. Here, we provide an overview of the most notable extreme events of the year, including extreme precipitation and floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The characteristics and impacts of these extreme events are summarized, followed by discussion on the physical drivers and the role of global warming.Finally, we also discuss the future prospects in extreme event studies, including impact-based perspectives, challenges in attribution of precipitation extremes, and the existing gap to minimize impacts from climate extremes.展开更多
We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other ...We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.展开更多
Climate change is significantly impacting cotton production in the Tarim River Basin.The study investigated the climate change characteristics from 2021 to 2100 using climate change datasets simulated per the coupled ...Climate change is significantly impacting cotton production in the Tarim River Basin.The study investigated the climate change characteristics from 2021 to 2100 using climate change datasets simulated per the coupled model inter-comparison project phase six(CMIP6)climatic patterns under the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.The DSSAT-CROPGROCotton model,along with stepwise multiple regression analyses,was used to simulate changes in the potential yield of seed cotton due to climate change.The results show that while future temperatures in the Tarim River Basin will rise significantly,changes in precipitation and radiation during the cotton-growing season are minimal.Seed cotton yields are more sensitive to low temperatures than to precipitation and radiation.The potential yield of seed cotton under the SSP2-4.5 scenario would increase by 14.8%,23.7%,29.0%,and 29.4%in the 2030S,2050S,2070S,and 2090S,respectively.In contrast,under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the potential yield of seed cotton would see increases of 17.5%,27.1%,30.1%,and 22.6%,respectively.Except for the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,future seed cotton production can withstand a 10%to 20%deficit in irrigation.These findings will help develop climate change adaptation strategies for cotton cultivation.展开更多
In Niger, farms have been facing negative effects of climate change for several decades. The objective of this work is to assess the vulnerability of farms in Tillabery department by proposing an adaptation approach. ...In Niger, farms have been facing negative effects of climate change for several decades. The objective of this work is to assess the vulnerability of farms in Tillabery department by proposing an adaptation approach. A five-step method and descriptive analysis were used on a sample of 250 farmers. The degree of damage caused by pests and crop diseases is significant, with respective proportions of 52.50% and 40.40%. It appears that the main climate risk factors for vulnerability are droughts, floods, soil degradation, and pest invasions. Additionally, the average level of exposure to agricultural operations is very high, with an index of 0.6. The sensitivity index remained constant in the range of 0.3 to 0.6 and is significant (reaching an index of 0.8). However, 61.2% of farms have a medium level of vulnerability and 33.3% have a high vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Nonetheless, a concerning trend regarding the vulnerability of farms has been observed. To assist policymakers and development actors in improving the vulnerability level of these production units, four phases of action are proposed: a diagnostic phase, evaluation, estimation of adaptation needs, implementation, and proper monitoring of actions.展开更多
Climate change is becoming a major issue for agriculture and the well-being of farmers. The objective of this article is to identify and analyze the production factors that may influence the competitiveness level of a...Climate change is becoming a major issue for agriculture and the well-being of farmers. The objective of this article is to identify and analyze the production factors that may influence the competitiveness level of agricultural operations, as well as to establish a structural and functional typology of these farms. Using Principal component analysis (PCA) combined with hierarchical ascending classification (HAC) on 250 farmers, the study was able to set farms typology. Furthermore, variance analysis and econometric models (linear et quadratic) were also used for in-depth analysis. The results show the existence of three groups of farm (GA, GB, GC): GA (19.7%), GB (65.3%), and GC (15%). Drought spells and flood are the main climatic risks affecting rain-fed farm operations. For irrigated crops such as rice, the major constraints remain bird attacks, the invasion of pests and nematodes. Climate variability significantly increases the prevalence of morbidities in the region by raising the number of inactive individuals. This significantly and differentially affects the outcomes of these assets. Health expenditures represent a significant share (GB: 12% and GC: 11%) and a non-negligible share (GA: 8.4%). However, larger participations (GC) show better economic performance due to economies of scale, but all categories would benefit from adopting appropriate strategies to reduce losses and increase their resilience.展开更多
The department of Tillabéri is primarily affected by climatic phenomena, impacting crop yields, growing cycles, and consequently, the economic outcomes of agricultural operations. The objective of this study is t...The department of Tillabéri is primarily affected by climatic phenomena, impacting crop yields, growing cycles, and consequently, the economic outcomes of agricultural operations. The objective of this study is to analyze these impacts of climate disruption on the economic performance of farms. The methodology adopted for this study combined documentary research with field surveys conducted on a sample of 250 randomly selected farmers. The analytical methods used mainly consisted of linear regression, profitability calculations, and linear programming. The findings indicate that all productions across different crops have experienced a decrease over the past 30 years. For instance, the production of millet, sorghum, and cowpea, which were respectively 812 kg/ha, 260 kg/ha, and 100 kg/ha between the last 30 and 20 years, has now dropped to 412 kg/ha, 106 kg/ha, and 46 kg/ha respectively. A negative and significant effect on agricultural net margin was observed due to variables such as flooding, drought, pest invasion in rice fields, and temperature changes. Smallholder farms show a relatively low margin (46%) to cover their fixed costs, which may indicate a risk if fixed expenses are high. Furthermore, the analysis results from linear programming reveal that farmers could achieve an additional net profit per hectare of 116,861 FCFA, 217201.5 FCFA, and 291988.2 FCFA respectively for small, medium, and large producers by managing variable costs and health-related expenses for households.展开更多
Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assesse...Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the TP.The best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,respectively.The corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),respectively.The increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained projections.Spatially,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–E.The wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃under all three scenarios during 2050–2099.This study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.展开更多
The intertwined challenges of climate change, resource scarcity, and conflict require innovative integrated solutions that address both environmental and societal vulnerabilities. Technological innovation offers a tra...The intertwined challenges of climate change, resource scarcity, and conflict require innovative integrated solutions that address both environmental and societal vulnerabilities. Technological innovation offers a transformative pathway for climate change adaptation and peacebuilding, with emphasis on a holistic approach to managing resource conflicts and environmental challenges. This paper explores the synergies between emerging technologies and strategic framework to mitigate climate-induced tensions and foster resilience. It focuses on the application of renewable energy systems to reduce dependence on contested resources, blockchain technology to ensure transparency in climate finance, equitable resource allocation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance early warning systems for climate-related disaster and conflicts. Additionally, technologies such as precision agriculture and remote sensing empower communities to optimize resource use, adapt to shifting environmental conditions, and reduce competition over scares resources. These innovations with inclusive governance and local capacity-building are very primordial. Ultimately, the convergence of technology, policy, and local participation offers a scalable and replicable model for addressing the dual challenges of environmental degradation and instability, thereby paving the way for a more sustainable and peaceful future.展开更多
The G20 Youth Summit(Y20)took place in Johannesburg,South Africa,from 18 to 23 August.Sun Ruoshui,a research assistant from the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development,Tsinghua University,was appointed...The G20 Youth Summit(Y20)took place in Johannesburg,South Africa,from 18 to 23 August.Sun Ruoshui,a research assistant from the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development,Tsinghua University,was appointed by the All-China Youth Federation to represent China in the discussions on Climate and Environmental Sustainability.Specialising in global climate governance,international climate negotiation and climate policy,Sun has previously served as a member of the Chinese delegation to the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference(COP28)and 2024 Bonn Subsidiary Bodies Meeting.展开更多
To address climate change and highlight its global nature,the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)was adopted for the first time in history within the UN framework on May 9,1992,clearly establ...To address climate change and highlight its global nature,the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)was adopted for the first time in history within the UN framework on May 9,1992,clearly establishing the obligations of developed countries to take the lead in emission reduction and provide financial,technological,and capacity-building support to developing countries.Particularly since the 2015 Paris Agreement,successive UN climate conferences have placed high emphasis on financial and technological matters,with financial arrangements demonstrating an increasingly specific trend in recent years.The Glasgow Climate Pact adopted in 2021 urges developed country Parties to deliver on their commitment to the goal of providing USD 100 billion to developing country prties,while also urging developed country parties to at least double their provision of climate finance to developing country parties by 2025 compared to 2019 levels.展开更多
Climate change has well-documented psychological consequences for society.However,the emotional experiences of frontline conservation professionals remain underexplored.As key knowledge producers and participants in d...Climate change has well-documented psychological consequences for society.However,the emotional experiences of frontline conservation professionals remain underexplored.As key knowledge producers and participants in decision-making processes,conservation researchers play a crucial role in shaping and implementing adaptation and mitigation efforts,which are pivotal for effective climate planning.Understanding their emotional responses is essential for enhancing the success of these strategies and supporting climate action.This study aims to identify the most prevalent emotions experienced by conservation researchers regarding climate change across various countries and to examine the qualitative and quantitative factors shaping these emotions.An online survey was conducted with 362 participants from 98 academic and research institutions,utilising both closed and open-ended questions to capture demographic data,climate knowledge,stances on mitigation and adaptation,and emotional responses.Data analysis revealed that feelings of powerlessness,guilt,and concern were most frequently reported,driven by a profound sense of inability to halt climate change,frustration with perceived inaction by governments and industries,and self-assessed personal shortcomings.Age and stances on climate adaptation were identified as primary factors influencing emotional responses,particularly among individuals aged 20–50 and 61–70,with opposition to adaptation correlating with stronger emotional reactions.Demographic factors such as region,place of residence,and mitigation stances played a minor role.These findings provide valuable insights into the psychological well-being of conservation researchers related to climate change.展开更多
A nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI)model was proposed and developed by the first author for nearly 30 years to represent the evolution of atmospheric blocking.In this review paper,we first review the creation and...A nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI)model was proposed and developed by the first author for nearly 30 years to represent the evolution of atmospheric blocking.In this review paper,we first review the creation and development of the NMI model and then emphasize that the NMI model represents a new tool for identifying the basic physics of how climate change influences mid-to-high latitude weather extremes.The building of the NMI model took place over three main periods.In the 1990s,a nonlinear Schr?dinger(NLS)equation model was presented to describe atmospheric blocking as a wave packet;however,it could not depict the lifetime(10-20 days)of atmospheric blocking.In the 2000s,we proposed an NMI model of atmospheric blocking in a uniform basic flow by making a scale-separation assumption and deriving an eddyforced NLS equation.This model succeeded in describing the life cycle of atmospheric blocking.In the 2020s,the NMI model was extended to include the impact of a changing climate mainly by altering the basic zonal winds and the magnitude of the meridional background potential vorticity gradient(PVy).Model results show that when PVy is smaller,blocking has a weaker dispersion and a stronger nonlinearity,so blocking can be more persistent and have a larger zonal scale and weaker eastward movement,thus favoring stronger weather extremes.However,when PVy is much smaller and below a critical threshold under much stronger winter Arctic warming of global warming,atmospheric blocking becomes locally less persistent and shows a much stronger westward movement,which acts to inhibit local cold extremes.Such a case does not happen in summer under global warming because PVy fails to fall below the critical threshold.Thus,our theory indicates that global warming can render summer-blocking anticyclones and mid-to-high latitude heatwaves more persistent,intense,and widespread.展开更多
The Arctic and Antarctica are important components of the Earth system,and the snow and ice over the polar regions make the interactions between the spheres there extremely sensitive to climate change,with an amplifyi...The Arctic and Antarctica are important components of the Earth system,and the snow and ice over the polar regions make the interactions between the spheres there extremely sensitive to climate change,with an amplifying effect on climate warming.Polar regions are the forefront of global climate and ecosystem changes.More than half of the identified climate tipping elements in our planet occur in the polar regions,with the losses of Arctic sea ice,Greenland ice sheet,permafrost,and western Antarctic ice sheet,being considered as tipping elements with global impacts that have already occurred(McKay et al.,2022).These changes in the polar regions affect the heat and material transfer,water and carbon cycles,as well as biological diversity at a global scale,closely related to global sustainable development.Therefore,polar regions are also considered the limiting factors in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(Li et al.,2025).展开更多
In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly explo...In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly exploited in the fields of climate change,climate variability,climate projection,and beyond.This paper provides an overview of LENS in climate systems.It delves into its definition,initialization,significance,and scientific concerns.Additionally,its development history and relevant theories,methods,and primary fields of application are also reviewed.Conclusions obtained from single-model LENS can be more robust compared with those from ensemble simulations with smaller numbers of members.The interactions among model biases,forced responses,and internal variabilities,which serve as the added value in LENS,are highlighted.Finally,we put forward the future trajectory of LENS with climate or Earth system models(ESMs).Super-large ensemble simulation,high-resolution LENS,LENS employing ESMs,and combining LENS with artificial intelligence,will greatly promote the study of climate and related applications.展开更多
This study investigates the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation patterns across four governorates in southern Iraq—Basrah,Thi Qar,Al Muthanna,and Messan—using an inte-grated modeling framework...This study investigates the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation patterns across four governorates in southern Iraq—Basrah,Thi Qar,Al Muthanna,and Messan—using an inte-grated modeling framework that combines the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator(LARS-WG)with three CMIP5-based Global Climate Models(Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2-Earth System(HadGEM2-ES)),European Community Earth-System Model(EC-Earth),and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5(MIROC5).Projections were generated for three future time periods(2021–2040,2041–2060,and 2061–2080)under two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).By integrating high-resolution climate simulations with localized drought risk analy-sis,this study provides a detailed outlook on climate change trends in the region.The novelty of this research lies in its high-resolution,station-level analysis and its integration of localized statistical downscal-ing techniques to enhance the spatial applicability of coarse GCM outputs.Model calibration and validation 2 were performed using historical climate data(1990–2020),resulting in high accuracy across all stations(R=0.91–0.99;RMSE=0.19–2.78),thus reinforcing the robustness of the projections.Results indicate a significant rise in average annual maximum and minimum temperatures,with increases ranging from 0.88°C to 3.68°C by the end of the century,particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario.Precipitation patterns exhibit pronounced interannual variability,with the highest predicted increases reaching up to 19.26 mm per season,depending on the model and location.These shifts suggest heightened vulnerability to drought and water scarcity,particularly in already arid regions such as Muthanna and Thi Qar.The findings under-score the urgent need for adaptive strategies in water resource management and agricultural planning,providing decision-makers with region-specific climate insights critical for sustainable development under changing climate conditions.展开更多
The accelerated pace of natural and human-driven climate change presents profound challenges for Earth's systems.Oceans and ice sheets are critical regulators of climate systems,functioning as carbon sinks and the...The accelerated pace of natural and human-driven climate change presents profound challenges for Earth's systems.Oceans and ice sheets are critical regulators of climate systems,functioning as carbon sinks and thermal reservoirs.However,they are increasingly vulnerable to warming and greenhouse gas emissions.展开更多
On November 24,2024,the 29th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(COP29)concluded in Baku,Azerbaijan.After two weeks of negotiations and a delay of more...On November 24,2024,the 29th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(COP29)concluded in Baku,Azerbaijan.After two weeks of negotiations and a delay of more than 30 hours,the conference finally set the goal for developed countries to mobilize at least US$300 billion per year for developing countries to adapt to climate change by 2035.It was no easy job to get 200 countries on the same page of a complex climate finance agreement.Two days before the conclusion of the conference,the Global South rejected a US$250 billion package offered by developed countries,which nearly derailed the final agreement.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32372546)Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(KQTD20180411143628272)+1 种基金the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and STI 2030-Major Projects(2022ZD04021)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFD2200700)。
文摘Agricultural pests cause enormous losses in annual agricultural production.Understanding the evolutionary responses and adaptive capacity of agricultural pests under climate change is crucial for establishing sustainable and environmentally friendly agricultural pest management.In this study,we integrate climate modeling and landscape genomics to investigate the distributional dynamics of the cotton bollworm(Helicoverpa armigera)in the adaptation to local environments and resilience to future climate change.Notably,the predicted inhabitable areas with higher suitability for the cotton bollworm could be eight times larger in the coming decades.Climate change is one of the factors driving the dynamics of distribution and population differentiation of the cotton bollworm.Approximately 19,000 years ago,the cotton bollworm expanded from its ancestral African population,followed by gradual occupations of the European,Asian,Oceanian,and American continents.Furthermore,we identify seven subpopulations with high dispersal and adaptability which may have an increased risk of invasion potential.Additionally,a large number of candidate genes and SNPs linked to climatic adaptation were mapped.These findings could inform sustainable pest management strategies in the face of climate change,aiding future pest forecasting and management planning.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.82025030,No.72394404)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3702700)the National Research Program for Key Issues in Air Pollution Control of China(No.DQGG0401).
文摘As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate change.The evidence about the impacts of climate change on the environment and human health may encourage China to take more decisive action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts.
基金supported by the funding Riset Unggulan Daerah 2022 of the Bureau of Development Planning and Research in Central Java Province(BAPPEDA Provinsi Jawa Tengah).
文摘Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regimes and hydrological extremes to inform long-term water resources management strategies for the Kupang Catchment.Utilizing precipitation and air temperature data from general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)and employing bias correction techniques,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model was employed to analyze climate-induced changes in hydrological fluxes,specifically streamflow.Results indicated a consistent increase in monthly streamflow during the wet season,with a substantial rise of 22.8%,alongside a slight decrease of 18.0%during the dry season.Moreover,both the frequency and severity of extremely low and high flows were projected to intensify by approximately 50%and 70%,respectively,for a 20-year return period,suggesting heightened flood and drought risks in the future.The observed declining trend in low flow,by up to 11%,indicated the potential for long-term groundwater depletion exacerbating the threat of land subsidence and coastal flooding,especially in areas with inadequate surface water management policies and infrastructure.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42422502 and 42275038)the China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program (Grant No.QBZ202306)funded by the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China project under the International Science Partnerships Fund (ISPF)。
文摘This past year, 2024, is on track to be the warmest year, joining 2023 as the two hottest years on record. With the exceptional heat, weather and climate extremes were common across the world. In particular, 2024 has seen a remarkable run of extreme precipitation events and resulting impacts. Here, we provide an overview of the most notable extreme events of the year, including extreme precipitation and floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts. The characteristics and impacts of these extreme events are summarized, followed by discussion on the physical drivers and the role of global warming.Finally, we also discuss the future prospects in extreme event studies, including impact-based perspectives, challenges in attribution of precipitation extremes, and the existing gap to minimize impacts from climate extremes.
文摘We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Program of Xinjiang Construction Corps(No.2024AB064)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41975044,42001314)。
文摘Climate change is significantly impacting cotton production in the Tarim River Basin.The study investigated the climate change characteristics from 2021 to 2100 using climate change datasets simulated per the coupled model inter-comparison project phase six(CMIP6)climatic patterns under the shared socioeconomic pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.The DSSAT-CROPGROCotton model,along with stepwise multiple regression analyses,was used to simulate changes in the potential yield of seed cotton due to climate change.The results show that while future temperatures in the Tarim River Basin will rise significantly,changes in precipitation and radiation during the cotton-growing season are minimal.Seed cotton yields are more sensitive to low temperatures than to precipitation and radiation.The potential yield of seed cotton under the SSP2-4.5 scenario would increase by 14.8%,23.7%,29.0%,and 29.4%in the 2030S,2050S,2070S,and 2090S,respectively.In contrast,under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the potential yield of seed cotton would see increases of 17.5%,27.1%,30.1%,and 22.6%,respectively.Except for the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,future seed cotton production can withstand a 10%to 20%deficit in irrigation.These findings will help develop climate change adaptation strategies for cotton cultivation.
文摘In Niger, farms have been facing negative effects of climate change for several decades. The objective of this work is to assess the vulnerability of farms in Tillabery department by proposing an adaptation approach. A five-step method and descriptive analysis were used on a sample of 250 farmers. The degree of damage caused by pests and crop diseases is significant, with respective proportions of 52.50% and 40.40%. It appears that the main climate risk factors for vulnerability are droughts, floods, soil degradation, and pest invasions. Additionally, the average level of exposure to agricultural operations is very high, with an index of 0.6. The sensitivity index remained constant in the range of 0.3 to 0.6 and is significant (reaching an index of 0.8). However, 61.2% of farms have a medium level of vulnerability and 33.3% have a high vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Nonetheless, a concerning trend regarding the vulnerability of farms has been observed. To assist policymakers and development actors in improving the vulnerability level of these production units, four phases of action are proposed: a diagnostic phase, evaluation, estimation of adaptation needs, implementation, and proper monitoring of actions.
文摘Climate change is becoming a major issue for agriculture and the well-being of farmers. The objective of this article is to identify and analyze the production factors that may influence the competitiveness level of agricultural operations, as well as to establish a structural and functional typology of these farms. Using Principal component analysis (PCA) combined with hierarchical ascending classification (HAC) on 250 farmers, the study was able to set farms typology. Furthermore, variance analysis and econometric models (linear et quadratic) were also used for in-depth analysis. The results show the existence of three groups of farm (GA, GB, GC): GA (19.7%), GB (65.3%), and GC (15%). Drought spells and flood are the main climatic risks affecting rain-fed farm operations. For irrigated crops such as rice, the major constraints remain bird attacks, the invasion of pests and nematodes. Climate variability significantly increases the prevalence of morbidities in the region by raising the number of inactive individuals. This significantly and differentially affects the outcomes of these assets. Health expenditures represent a significant share (GB: 12% and GC: 11%) and a non-negligible share (GA: 8.4%). However, larger participations (GC) show better economic performance due to economies of scale, but all categories would benefit from adopting appropriate strategies to reduce losses and increase their resilience.
文摘The department of Tillabéri is primarily affected by climatic phenomena, impacting crop yields, growing cycles, and consequently, the economic outcomes of agricultural operations. The objective of this study is to analyze these impacts of climate disruption on the economic performance of farms. The methodology adopted for this study combined documentary research with field surveys conducted on a sample of 250 randomly selected farmers. The analytical methods used mainly consisted of linear regression, profitability calculations, and linear programming. The findings indicate that all productions across different crops have experienced a decrease over the past 30 years. For instance, the production of millet, sorghum, and cowpea, which were respectively 812 kg/ha, 260 kg/ha, and 100 kg/ha between the last 30 and 20 years, has now dropped to 412 kg/ha, 106 kg/ha, and 46 kg/ha respectively. A negative and significant effect on agricultural net margin was observed due to variables such as flooding, drought, pest invasion in rice fields, and temperature changes. Smallholder farms show a relatively low margin (46%) to cover their fixed costs, which may indicate a risk if fixed expenses are high. Furthermore, the analysis results from linear programming reveal that farmers could achieve an additional net profit per hectare of 116,861 FCFA, 217201.5 FCFA, and 291988.2 FCFA respectively for small, medium, and large producers by managing variable costs and health-related expenses for households.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program[grant number 2019QZKK0102]the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number 060GJHZ2023079GC].
文摘Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the TP.The best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,respectively.The corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),respectively.The increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained projections.Spatially,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–E.The wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃under all three scenarios during 2050–2099.This study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.
文摘The intertwined challenges of climate change, resource scarcity, and conflict require innovative integrated solutions that address both environmental and societal vulnerabilities. Technological innovation offers a transformative pathway for climate change adaptation and peacebuilding, with emphasis on a holistic approach to managing resource conflicts and environmental challenges. This paper explores the synergies between emerging technologies and strategic framework to mitigate climate-induced tensions and foster resilience. It focuses on the application of renewable energy systems to reduce dependence on contested resources, blockchain technology to ensure transparency in climate finance, equitable resource allocation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance early warning systems for climate-related disaster and conflicts. Additionally, technologies such as precision agriculture and remote sensing empower communities to optimize resource use, adapt to shifting environmental conditions, and reduce competition over scares resources. These innovations with inclusive governance and local capacity-building are very primordial. Ultimately, the convergence of technology, policy, and local participation offers a scalable and replicable model for addressing the dual challenges of environmental degradation and instability, thereby paving the way for a more sustainable and peaceful future.
文摘The G20 Youth Summit(Y20)took place in Johannesburg,South Africa,from 18 to 23 August.Sun Ruoshui,a research assistant from the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development,Tsinghua University,was appointed by the All-China Youth Federation to represent China in the discussions on Climate and Environmental Sustainability.Specialising in global climate governance,international climate negotiation and climate policy,Sun has previously served as a member of the Chinese delegation to the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference(COP28)and 2024 Bonn Subsidiary Bodies Meeting.
文摘To address climate change and highlight its global nature,the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)was adopted for the first time in history within the UN framework on May 9,1992,clearly establishing the obligations of developed countries to take the lead in emission reduction and provide financial,technological,and capacity-building support to developing countries.Particularly since the 2015 Paris Agreement,successive UN climate conferences have placed high emphasis on financial and technological matters,with financial arrangements demonstrating an increasingly specific trend in recent years.The Glasgow Climate Pact adopted in 2021 urges developed country Parties to deliver on their commitment to the goal of providing USD 100 billion to developing country prties,while also urging developed country parties to at least double their provision of climate finance to developing country parties by 2025 compared to 2019 levels.
基金funded the Ecuadorian National Secretary of Higher Education,Science and Technology(SENESCYT),through the Scholarship Programme 2012.
文摘Climate change has well-documented psychological consequences for society.However,the emotional experiences of frontline conservation professionals remain underexplored.As key knowledge producers and participants in decision-making processes,conservation researchers play a crucial role in shaping and implementing adaptation and mitigation efforts,which are pivotal for effective climate planning.Understanding their emotional responses is essential for enhancing the success of these strategies and supporting climate action.This study aims to identify the most prevalent emotions experienced by conservation researchers regarding climate change across various countries and to examine the qualitative and quantitative factors shaping these emotions.An online survey was conducted with 362 participants from 98 academic and research institutions,utilising both closed and open-ended questions to capture demographic data,climate knowledge,stances on mitigation and adaptation,and emotional responses.Data analysis revealed that feelings of powerlessness,guilt,and concern were most frequently reported,driven by a profound sense of inability to halt climate change,frustration with perceived inaction by governments and industries,and self-assessed personal shortcomings.Age and stances on climate adaptation were identified as primary factors influencing emotional responses,particularly among individuals aged 20–50 and 61–70,with opposition to adaptation correlating with stronger emotional reactions.Demographic factors such as region,place of residence,and mitigation stances played a minor role.These findings provide valuable insights into the psychological well-being of conservation researchers related to climate change.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42150204 and 2288101)supported by the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(BX20230045)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2023M730279)。
文摘A nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI)model was proposed and developed by the first author for nearly 30 years to represent the evolution of atmospheric blocking.In this review paper,we first review the creation and development of the NMI model and then emphasize that the NMI model represents a new tool for identifying the basic physics of how climate change influences mid-to-high latitude weather extremes.The building of the NMI model took place over three main periods.In the 1990s,a nonlinear Schr?dinger(NLS)equation model was presented to describe atmospheric blocking as a wave packet;however,it could not depict the lifetime(10-20 days)of atmospheric blocking.In the 2000s,we proposed an NMI model of atmospheric blocking in a uniform basic flow by making a scale-separation assumption and deriving an eddyforced NLS equation.This model succeeded in describing the life cycle of atmospheric blocking.In the 2020s,the NMI model was extended to include the impact of a changing climate mainly by altering the basic zonal winds and the magnitude of the meridional background potential vorticity gradient(PVy).Model results show that when PVy is smaller,blocking has a weaker dispersion and a stronger nonlinearity,so blocking can be more persistent and have a larger zonal scale and weaker eastward movement,thus favoring stronger weather extremes.However,when PVy is much smaller and below a critical threshold under much stronger winter Arctic warming of global warming,atmospheric blocking becomes locally less persistent and shows a much stronger westward movement,which acts to inhibit local cold extremes.Such a case does not happen in summer under global warming because PVy fails to fall below the critical threshold.Thus,our theory indicates that global warming can render summer-blocking anticyclones and mid-to-high latitude heatwaves more persistent,intense,and widespread.
文摘The Arctic and Antarctica are important components of the Earth system,and the snow and ice over the polar regions make the interactions between the spheres there extremely sensitive to climate change,with an amplifying effect on climate warming.Polar regions are the forefront of global climate and ecosystem changes.More than half of the identified climate tipping elements in our planet occur in the polar regions,with the losses of Arctic sea ice,Greenland ice sheet,permafrost,and western Antarctic ice sheet,being considered as tipping elements with global impacts that have already occurred(McKay et al.,2022).These changes in the polar regions affect the heat and material transfer,water and carbon cycles,as well as biological diversity at a global scale,closely related to global sustainable development.Therefore,polar regions are also considered the limiting factors in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(Li et al.,2025).
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342228)the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences(Grant No.2020YFA0608902)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.92358302,and 42242018)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB0500303).
文摘In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly exploited in the fields of climate change,climate variability,climate projection,and beyond.This paper provides an overview of LENS in climate systems.It delves into its definition,initialization,significance,and scientific concerns.Additionally,its development history and relevant theories,methods,and primary fields of application are also reviewed.Conclusions obtained from single-model LENS can be more robust compared with those from ensemble simulations with smaller numbers of members.The interactions among model biases,forced responses,and internal variabilities,which serve as the added value in LENS,are highlighted.Finally,we put forward the future trajectory of LENS with climate or Earth system models(ESMs).Super-large ensemble simulation,high-resolution LENS,LENS employing ESMs,and combining LENS with artificial intelligence,will greatly promote the study of climate and related applications.
文摘This study investigates the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation patterns across four governorates in southern Iraq—Basrah,Thi Qar,Al Muthanna,and Messan—using an inte-grated modeling framework that combines the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator(LARS-WG)with three CMIP5-based Global Climate Models(Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2-Earth System(HadGEM2-ES)),European Community Earth-System Model(EC-Earth),and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5(MIROC5).Projections were generated for three future time periods(2021–2040,2041–2060,and 2061–2080)under two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).By integrating high-resolution climate simulations with localized drought risk analy-sis,this study provides a detailed outlook on climate change trends in the region.The novelty of this research lies in its high-resolution,station-level analysis and its integration of localized statistical downscal-ing techniques to enhance the spatial applicability of coarse GCM outputs.Model calibration and validation 2 were performed using historical climate data(1990–2020),resulting in high accuracy across all stations(R=0.91–0.99;RMSE=0.19–2.78),thus reinforcing the robustness of the projections.Results indicate a significant rise in average annual maximum and minimum temperatures,with increases ranging from 0.88°C to 3.68°C by the end of the century,particularly under the RCP8.5 scenario.Precipitation patterns exhibit pronounced interannual variability,with the highest predicted increases reaching up to 19.26 mm per season,depending on the model and location.These shifts suggest heightened vulnerability to drought and water scarcity,particularly in already arid regions such as Muthanna and Thi Qar.The findings under-score the urgent need for adaptive strategies in water resource management and agricultural planning,providing decision-makers with region-specific climate insights critical for sustainable development under changing climate conditions.
文摘The accelerated pace of natural and human-driven climate change presents profound challenges for Earth's systems.Oceans and ice sheets are critical regulators of climate systems,functioning as carbon sinks and thermal reservoirs.However,they are increasingly vulnerable to warming and greenhouse gas emissions.
文摘On November 24,2024,the 29th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(COP29)concluded in Baku,Azerbaijan.After two weeks of negotiations and a delay of more than 30 hours,the conference finally set the goal for developed countries to mobilize at least US$300 billion per year for developing countries to adapt to climate change by 2035.It was no easy job to get 200 countries on the same page of a complex climate finance agreement.Two days before the conclusion of the conference,the Global South rejected a US$250 billion package offered by developed countries,which nearly derailed the final agreement.
