As for many post-soviet countries, Kazakhstan’s building code for seismic design was based on a deterministic approach. Recently, Kazakhstan seismologists are engaged to adapt the PSHA(probabilistic hazard assessment...As for many post-soviet countries, Kazakhstan’s building code for seismic design was based on a deterministic approach. Recently, Kazakhstan seismologists are engaged to adapt the PSHA(probabilistic hazard assessment) procedure to the large amount of available geological, geophysical and tectonic Kazakh data and to meet standard requirements for the Eurocode 8. The new procedure has been used within National projects to develop the Probabilistic GSZ(General Seismic Zoning) maps of the Kazakhstan territory and the SMZ(Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning) maps of Almaty city. They agree with the seismic design principles of Eurocode 8 and are expressed in terms of not only seismic intensity,but also engineering parameters(peak ground acceleration PGA). The whole packet of maps has been developed by the Institute of Seismology, together with other Kazakhstan Institutions. Our group was responsible for making analysis in PGA. The GSZ maps and hazard assessment maps for SMZ in terms of PGA for return periods 475 and 2475 years are considered in the article.展开更多
The paper reviews goals and objectives, stages and components of a seismotectonic study conducted in Eastern Siberia, Russia. Based on a comprehensive analysis of geological and geophysical data, our study establishes...The paper reviews goals and objectives, stages and components of a seismotectonic study conducted in Eastern Siberia, Russia. Based on a comprehensive analysis of geological and geophysical data, our study establishes whether the local earthquakes are of tectonic origin and reveals relationships among earthquakes with recent geodynamic processes in the area under study. Seismic hazard assessment and evaluation of tectonic processes are the two major closely interrelated aspects of seismotectonic studies. A seismotectonic study is generally combined with a seismic study and conducted prior to the stage of detailed seismic zonation (DSZ) which is followed by seismic micro-zonation (SMZ). In three stages of the seismotectonic study, we analyze specific geological structures, reveal the regional dynamics of seismotectonic processes, clarify details of potential seismic hazard locations and identify sites of the potential instantaneous deformation of the crust which may take place due to active faulting. Based on results of our longterm studies, a seismotectonic zonation map of Eastern Siberia is compiled. The paper briefly reviews the methods of mapping and refers to data on active faults and neotectonic structures revealed in the area under study, which are closely related to regional earthquake sources.展开更多
This research shows a noticeable comparison between slide zones produced with the results using the Nilsen method with active tectonic hazard zonation map. A determination landform of geometry or morphometry factors i...This research shows a noticeable comparison between slide zones produced with the results using the Nilsen method with active tectonic hazard zonation map. A determination landform of geometry or morphometry factors is one of the best methods for study and evaluation active tectonics. The first image provided is a Dem maps from GIS software showing topography, geology and tectonic maps participant with field activities. The second image provided shows an active tectonic map also generated by the same above mentioned factors into three classes A, B, C, D and a landslide hazard zonation map which shows five classes: Stable zone, generally stable zone, stable moderately stable zone, moderately stable zone and talented to liquefaction zone. The study and comparison and conformity landslide hazard zonation map with hazard zonations into active tectonic hazard zonation map showed about 79 percent (56,880 hectare) moderately unstable zone and talented for liquefaction zone settled in A zone (very high tectonic activity) and B zone (high tectonic activity) active tectonic map and 21 percent (15,130 hectare) remain unsettled sequential 12 percent (8640 hectare) and 9 percent (6480 hectare) in C (moderate tectonic activity), D (lowest tectonic activity) zone of active tectonic hazard zonation produced from above mentioned factors. This research showed a relationship between slide zones produced in landslide hazard zonations using the Nilsen method to measure active tectonic hazard zonation in the study region.展开更多
This article aims to enhance seismic hazard assessment methods for Kazakhstan’s seismotectonic conditions.It combines probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA),ground motion simulation,sitespecific geological and g...This article aims to enhance seismic hazard assessment methods for Kazakhstan’s seismotectonic conditions.It combines probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA),ground motion simulation,sitespecific geological and geotechnical data analysis,and seismic scenario analysis to develop Probabilistic General Seismic Zoning(GSZ)maps for Kazakhstan and Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning maps for Almaty.These maps align with Eurocode 8 principles,incorporating seismic intensity and engineering parameters like peak ground acceleration(PGA).The new procedure,applied in national projects,has resulted in GSZ maps for the country,seismic microzoning maps for Almaty,and detailed seismic zoning maps for East Kazakhstan.These maps,part of a regulatory document,guide earthquake-resistant design and construction.They offer a comprehensive assessment of seismic hazards,integrating traditional Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik(MSK-64)intensity scale points with quantitative parameters like peak ground acceleration.This innovative approach promises to advance methods for quantifying seismic hazards in specific regions.展开更多
According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destru...According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN) real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system’s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.展开更多
The Seismic Intensity Zoning Map of China(1990)was based on the probabilistic method of seismic hazard analysis.In compiling the map,the characteristics of inhomogeneity of earthquake distribution both in space and ti...The Seismic Intensity Zoning Map of China(1990)was based on the probabilistic method of seismic hazard analysis.In compiling the map,the characteristics of inhomogeneity of earthquake distribution both in space and time in China are considered sufficiently,and some necessary modifications in the model of seismic hazard analysis are carried out.Based on the analysis of the seismic activity and seismotectonic environment,26 seismic provinces are divided first as the statistical elements of the seismicity analysis; the seismic potential source areas are then divided in the seismic provinces.The 733 potential source areas with various upper limit magnitudes have been divided in the country.According to the reliable time domain of earthquake data with various magnitude intervals,the b values in magnitude-frequency relationship are calculated in the seismic provinces.According to the analysis of the inhomogeneity of seismicity distribution both in space and time,the annual average occurrence rates of the展开更多
基金"Development of the Map of General Seismic Zoning in the Territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan" (state registration 0113RK01142)"Development of the map of Seismic Microzoning of the Territory of Almaty City"(state registration 0115RK02701)funded within the state funding
文摘As for many post-soviet countries, Kazakhstan’s building code for seismic design was based on a deterministic approach. Recently, Kazakhstan seismologists are engaged to adapt the PSHA(probabilistic hazard assessment) procedure to the large amount of available geological, geophysical and tectonic Kazakh data and to meet standard requirements for the Eurocode 8. The new procedure has been used within National projects to develop the Probabilistic GSZ(General Seismic Zoning) maps of the Kazakhstan territory and the SMZ(Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning) maps of Almaty city. They agree with the seismic design principles of Eurocode 8 and are expressed in terms of not only seismic intensity,but also engineering parameters(peak ground acceleration PGA). The whole packet of maps has been developed by the Institute of Seismology, together with other Kazakhstan Institutions. Our group was responsible for making analysis in PGA. The GSZ maps and hazard assessment maps for SMZ in terms of PGA for return periods 475 and 2475 years are considered in the article.
文摘The paper reviews goals and objectives, stages and components of a seismotectonic study conducted in Eastern Siberia, Russia. Based on a comprehensive analysis of geological and geophysical data, our study establishes whether the local earthquakes are of tectonic origin and reveals relationships among earthquakes with recent geodynamic processes in the area under study. Seismic hazard assessment and evaluation of tectonic processes are the two major closely interrelated aspects of seismotectonic studies. A seismotectonic study is generally combined with a seismic study and conducted prior to the stage of detailed seismic zonation (DSZ) which is followed by seismic micro-zonation (SMZ). In three stages of the seismotectonic study, we analyze specific geological structures, reveal the regional dynamics of seismotectonic processes, clarify details of potential seismic hazard locations and identify sites of the potential instantaneous deformation of the crust which may take place due to active faulting. Based on results of our longterm studies, a seismotectonic zonation map of Eastern Siberia is compiled. The paper briefly reviews the methods of mapping and refers to data on active faults and neotectonic structures revealed in the area under study, which are closely related to regional earthquake sources.
文摘This research shows a noticeable comparison between slide zones produced with the results using the Nilsen method with active tectonic hazard zonation map. A determination landform of geometry or morphometry factors is one of the best methods for study and evaluation active tectonics. The first image provided is a Dem maps from GIS software showing topography, geology and tectonic maps participant with field activities. The second image provided shows an active tectonic map also generated by the same above mentioned factors into three classes A, B, C, D and a landslide hazard zonation map which shows five classes: Stable zone, generally stable zone, stable moderately stable zone, moderately stable zone and talented to liquefaction zone. The study and comparison and conformity landslide hazard zonation map with hazard zonations into active tectonic hazard zonation map showed about 79 percent (56,880 hectare) moderately unstable zone and talented for liquefaction zone settled in A zone (very high tectonic activity) and B zone (high tectonic activity) active tectonic map and 21 percent (15,130 hectare) remain unsettled sequential 12 percent (8640 hectare) and 9 percent (6480 hectare) in C (moderate tectonic activity), D (lowest tectonic activity) zone of active tectonic hazard zonation produced from above mentioned factors. This research showed a relationship between slide zones produced in landslide hazard zonations using the Nilsen method to measure active tectonic hazard zonation in the study region.
基金The work was carried out in the framework of earmarked funding“Assessment of seismic hazard of territories of Kazakhstan on modern scientific and methodological basis”,programme code number F.0980.Source of funding-Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
文摘This article aims to enhance seismic hazard assessment methods for Kazakhstan’s seismotectonic conditions.It combines probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA),ground motion simulation,sitespecific geological and geotechnical data analysis,and seismic scenario analysis to develop Probabilistic General Seismic Zoning(GSZ)maps for Kazakhstan and Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning maps for Almaty.These maps align with Eurocode 8 principles,incorporating seismic intensity and engineering parameters like peak ground acceleration(PGA).The new procedure,applied in national projects,has resulted in GSZ maps for the country,seismic microzoning maps for Almaty,and detailed seismic zoning maps for East Kazakhstan.These maps,part of a regulatory document,guide earthquake-resistant design and construction.They offer a comprehensive assessment of seismic hazards,integrating traditional Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik(MSK-64)intensity scale points with quantitative parameters like peak ground acceleration.This innovative approach promises to advance methods for quantifying seismic hazards in specific regions.
基金Fund by the Ministry of Science and Technology, No.2002BA516A17 Foundation of Chinese Academy of Forestry Science, No.200114
文摘According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN) real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system’s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.
文摘The Seismic Intensity Zoning Map of China(1990)was based on the probabilistic method of seismic hazard analysis.In compiling the map,the characteristics of inhomogeneity of earthquake distribution both in space and time in China are considered sufficiently,and some necessary modifications in the model of seismic hazard analysis are carried out.Based on the analysis of the seismic activity and seismotectonic environment,26 seismic provinces are divided first as the statistical elements of the seismicity analysis; the seismic potential source areas are then divided in the seismic provinces.The 733 potential source areas with various upper limit magnitudes have been divided in the country.According to the reliable time domain of earthquake data with various magnitude intervals,the b values in magnitude-frequency relationship are calculated in the seismic provinces.According to the analysis of the inhomogeneity of seismicity distribution both in space and time,the annual average occurrence rates of the
