1.Introduction Compared with the United States,whose annual number of tornadoes can exceed 1000,the average number of tornadoes per year in China over the past half a century is estimated to be fewer than 100（Fan and...1.Introduction Compared with the United States,whose annual number of tornadoes can exceed 1000,the average number of tornadoes per year in China over the past half a century is estimated to be fewer than 100（Fan and Yu,2015）,even though both countries are located in a similar latitudinal zone of the Northern Hemisphere.展开更多
Recent advances in modeling of tornadoes and twisters consist of significant achievements in mathematical calculation of occurrence and evolution of a violent F5-class tornado on the Fujita scale, and four-dimensional...Recent advances in modeling of tornadoes and twisters consist of significant achievements in mathematical calculation of occurrence and evolution of a violent F5-class tornado on the Fujita scale, and four-dimensional mathematical modeling of a tornado with the fourth coordinate time multiplied by its characteristic velocity. Such a tornado can arise in a thunderstorm supercell filled with turbulent whirlwinds. A theory of the squall storms is proposed. The squall storm is modeled by running pertur- bation of the temperature inversion on the lower boundary of cloudiness. This perturbation is induced by the action of strong, hurricane winds in the upper and middle troposphere, and looks like a running solitary wave （soliton）; which is developed also in a field of pressure and velocity of a wind. If a soliton of a squall storm gets into the thunderstorm supercell then this soliton is captured by supercell. It leads to additional pressure fall of air inside a storm supercell and stimulate amplification of wind velocity here. As a result, a cyclostrophic balance inside a storm supercell generates a tornado. Comparison of the radial distribution of wind velocity inside a tornado calculated by using the new formulas and equations with radar observations of the wind velocity inside Texas Tornado Dummit in 1995 and inside the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado shows good correspondence.展开更多
Tornadoes and cyclones, as is stated in numerous literary and audiovisual works dedicated to these out of balance physical systems, are two powerful and spectacular atmospheric phenomena whose vertical and horizontal ...Tornadoes and cyclones, as is stated in numerous literary and audiovisual works dedicated to these out of balance physical systems, are two powerful and spectacular atmospheric phenomena whose vertical and horizontal profiles of winds and temperatures are not yet well known. Indeed, data and routine observations accumulated in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) databases, regardless of their diversity and perfection of the instruments used to achieve these data (e.g. satellites, onboard cameras, wind profilers, ultra modern calculators, etc.), offer mind-blowing performances on the extent of damage caused by these disturbances, but information provided by these ground and space based observations will never allow access to real profiles of winds associated with tornadoes and cyclones both at the ground’s surface and aloft. The works recently carried out by C. Mbane Biouele allow us to discover that winds associated with tornadoes and hurricanes result from vectors addition of troposphere’s horizontal geostrophic winds and vertical movements associated with passive convection. Unfortunately, geostrophic wind and passive convection are two familiar meteorological phenomena described with much awkwardness and monumental mistakes by all scientific books written by authors who have remained loyal to Hadley principle which states (for centuries) that hot air is lighter than cold air. It is very important to know that C. Mbane Biouele’s very recent publications demonstrate that Hadley principle is not valid in the troposphere’s regions occupied by Ferrell cells. Indeed, it is urgent for the development of meteorology to highlight with great insistence to everyone that there is a Physics principle diametrically opposed to popular Hadley one which provides thermodynamic reasons of the formation of Ferrell cells. This Principle will be named Mbane Biouele Principe and be clearly stated in this paper.展开更多
Tornadoes can destroy or severely damage physical infrastructure including buildings in a community.This can result in direct losses but also indirect losses such as the closure of key social institutions reverberatin...Tornadoes can destroy or severely damage physical infrastructure including buildings in a community.This can result in direct losses but also indirect losses such as the closure of key social institutions reverberating further through the community(e.g.,schools).Despite significant losses in past events,building codes and standards have not previously included tornado hazards because of the relatively low probability of a direct strike.The recent release of the ASCE 7-22 standard considers tornadoes for Risk Category 3 and 4 buildings,i.e.ranging from schools to critical facilities.This study proposes a series of design combinations of a reinforced masonry school building with different performance targets intended to enable schools to reopen sooner.Tornado fragilities were developed for a school building having improved designs using tornado loads determined based on the new tornado chapter in ASCE 7-22,and then integrated into a community level model with school attendance zones to examine the effect.The ultimate goal in this study is to investigate the effect of improving school building designs would have on maintaining school continuity(and more rapid return)for school children.展开更多
Based on the data of tornadoes in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2005,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of tornadoes were analyzed by means of moving average,Daniel trend test and other methods.The...Based on the data of tornadoes in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2005,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of tornadoes were analyzed by means of moving average,Daniel trend test and other methods.The results show that the frequency of tornadoes in coastal areas was obviously higher than that in land.Tornadoes mainly occurred in the central plains,the coastal areas of Liaodong Peninsula and the junction of plain and sea.The frequency of tornadoes was the highest in the 1980s and the lowest in the 1990s,and suddenly increased in 2005.The occurrence of tornadoes had an obvious seasonal change.They mainly happened in summer,peaking in September.During a day,most of them appeared from 13:00 to 21:00,and lasted for only a few minutes to dozens of minutes.The frequency of tornadoes showed a significant downward trend during 1991-2000 and a significant upward trend during 1961-1970 and 2001-2005.There were eight serious tornadoes in the 55 years,among which the tornado occurring in 1988 was the severest,and the number of deaths caused by the tornado in 1969 was the largest.展开更多
Tornado disasters are intense and have been attracting significant social attention.This article reviews recent research progress on tornado mechanisms,intensity scales,and damage survey methodologies.It examines key ...Tornado disasters are intense and have been attracting significant social attention.This article reviews recent research progress on tornado mechanisms,intensity scales,and damage survey methodologies.It examines key aspects such as processes of tornadic vortex formation and dissipation,challenges in field survey and intensity estimation,and so on,and provides outlook for future research.While the favorable environmental conditions for mesocyclone tornadoes are well documented,several critical questions remain unresolved:the role of low-level atmospheric humidity under cold vortex conditions,the influence of convective available potential energy in tropical cyclone tornadoes,and the environmental prerequisites for tornado outbreak events.The formation of mesocyclone tornadoes involves multiple stages:development of mesocyclones,generation and organization of near-surface vortex patches,subsequent intensification,and the critical influence of surface friction leading to the development of tornado vortex boundary layers and corner flow regions.Topography exerts complex effects on tornado behavior,typically causing weakening during uphill movement and intensification during descent.Tornado dissipation mechanisms vary,with any disruption to sustaining factors potentially leading to vortex demise.Common tornado intensity scales include the Fujita(F),Enhanced Fujita(EF),and TORRO(T)scales.The T-scale features the most detailed categorization(11levels),while the EF-scale remains the most widely adopted standard internationally.China's national tornado intensity classification system aligns directly with the EF-scale.Significant advancements have been made in severe wind damage survey methods and procedures,with extensive tornado case data now available in China.However,the complex disaster mechanisms of tornadoes introduce substantial uncertainty in intensity assessment.Continued improvements are needed in high-resolution observations,damage survey techniques,physical mechanism studies,and forecasting/warning capabilities to enhance tornado preparedness and mitigation efforts.展开更多
This study presents a comprehensive analysis of 132 tornadic events in northeastern China from 2004 to 2023,utilizing radar and ERA5 reanalysis data to investigate the climatology,environmental drivers,and synoptic li...This study presents a comprehensive analysis of 132 tornadic events in northeastern China from 2004 to 2023,utilizing radar and ERA5 reanalysis data to investigate the climatology,environmental drivers,and synoptic linkages with Northeast China cold vortices(NCCVs)of tornadic storms under different convective modes.Results reveal that discrete storms account for 70%of events,with clustered cells(CC)being the most frequent mode,while significant tornadoes(EF2+)are primarily associated with isolated cells(IC)and broken lines(BL).The storm mode distribution in northeastern China resembles that of the central United States but with a higher proportion of CC and lower IC.In contrast,southern China exhibits a higher frequency of quasi-linear(QL)modes(>50%),similar to European patterns.Although no single parameter clearly differentiates between all tornado modes,distinct morphological characteristics emerge through specific parameter combinations:NL modes are characterized by high 0-1 km storm-relative helicity(SRH1)and humidity but low 0-6 km shear(SR6),whereas IC modes display contrasting features with low SRH1 and high CAPE.Notably,83%of tornadoes are associated with NCCVs,preferentially forming in southeastern/southwestern quadrants.Strong tornadoes favor southeastern quadrants,while NCCV intensity correlates with tornadic distance from vortex centers.Three characteristic synoptic configurations emerge:(T1)strong deep vortices with vertically aligned cold troughs,generating southeast-dominant tornado clusters characterized by a high proportion of BL and QL modes;(T2)weaker vortices featuring sub-synoptic troughs,with southern-distributed events dominated by a predominance of the CC mode;(T3)transverse-trough systems exhibiting CAPE-SRH decoupling and reduced tornadic activity.This study enhances our understanding of tornadoes in northeastern China,informing future research on formation mechanisms,prediction methods,and disaster prevention strategies.展开更多
We surveyed the occurrence of tropical cyclone(TC) tornadoes in China from 2006 to 2018. There were 64 cataloged TC tornadoes, with an average of five per year. About one-third of the landfalling TCs in China were tor...We surveyed the occurrence of tropical cyclone(TC) tornadoes in China from 2006 to 2018. There were 64 cataloged TC tornadoes, with an average of five per year. About one-third of the landfalling TCs in China were tornadic. Consistent with previous studies, TC tornadoes preferentially formed in the afternoon shortly before and within about 36 h after landfall of the TCs. These tornadoes mainly occurred in coastal areas with relatively flat terrains. The maximum number of TC tornadoes occurred in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces. Most of the TC tornadoes were spawned within 500 km of the TC center. Two notable characteristics were found:(1) TC tornadoes in China mainly occurred in the northeast quadrant(Earth-relative coordinates) rather than the right-front quadrant(TC motion-relative coordinates) of the parent TC circulation;and(2) most tornadoes were produced by TCs with a relatively weak intensity(tropical depressions/storms), in contrast with the United States where most tornadoes are associated with stronger TCs. Further analyses showed that TC tornadoes in China tend to be spawned in an environment with large low-level storm relative helicity and large convective available potential energy taking entrainment effects into account. TC tornadoes were particularly active in 2018, with 24 reported tornadoes accounting for 37.5% of the total surveyed samples. The first recorded tornado outbreak in the modern history of China occurred in the envelope of TC Yagi(2018), in which 11 tornadoes were reported in association with significant midlevel intrusions of dry air and the interaction of Yagi with an approaching midlatitude midlevel trough.展开更多
This study investigated the economic impact of tornadoes and damaging winds on county-level income growth in the United States from 1969 to 2023.Using a fi xed eff ect regression methodology,the analysis showed that a...This study investigated the economic impact of tornadoes and damaging winds on county-level income growth in the United States from 1969 to 2023.Using a fi xed eff ect regression methodology,the analysis showed that an average damaging storm and an average tornado reduced income growth in the aff ected counties by 0.16–0.23%and 0.21–0.23%,respectively,translating into a one-time growth loss of approximately USD 5.6 million and USD 6.3 million.The fi ndings also indicate that tornadoes have a 20%greater economic impact than damaging winds.This study underscored the unique challenges posed by tornadoes and damaging winds,which are characterized by their unpredictable nature and concentrated but extreme damage.展开更多
Based on analysis of historical tornado observation data provided by the primary network of national weather stations in China for the period from 1960 to 2009, it is found that most tornadoes in China （85%） occurre...Based on analysis of historical tornado observation data provided by the primary network of national weather stations in China for the period from 1960 to 2009, it is found that most tornadoes in China （85%） occurred over plains. Specifically, large numbers of tornado occurrences are found in the Northeast Plain, the North China Plain, the middle-lower Yangtze Plain, and the Pearl River Delta Plain. A flat underlying surface is conducive to tornado occurrence, while the latitudal variation of tornado occurrence in China is not so obvious. Tornadoes mainly occur in summer, and the highest frequency is in July. Note that the beginning and the time span of tornado outbreaks are different in North and South China. Tornadoes occur during May-September in South China （south of 25°N）, June-September in Northeast China （north of 40°N）, July-September in the middle-lower Yangtze Plain, and July-August in North China （between 25° and 40°N）. More than 80% of total tornadoes occurred during the above periods for the specific regions. The 1960s and 1970s have seen about twice the average number of tornadoes （7.5 times per year） compared to the mean for 1960-2009. The most frequent occurrence of tornado was in the early and mid 1960s; there were large fluctuations in the 1970s; and the number of tornadoes in the 1980s approached the 50-yr average. Tornado occurrences gradually decreased in the late 1980s, and an abrupt change with dramatic decrease occurred in 1994. The decrease in the tornado occurrence frequency is consistent with the simultaneous climatic change in the meteorological elements that are favorable for tornado formation. Tornado formation requires large vertical wind shear and sufficient atmospheric moisture content near the ground. Changes in the vertical wind shear at both 0-1 and 0-6 km appear to be one important factor that results in the decrease in tornado formation. The changing tendency of relative humidity also has contributed to the decrease in tornado formation in China.展开更多
This report synthesizes global tropical cyclone(TC)tornado research and operational practices to date.Tornadoes are one of the secondary(and lesser researched)hazards contributing to the devastation TCs leave in their...This report synthesizes global tropical cyclone(TC)tornado research and operational practices to date.Tornadoes are one of the secondary(and lesser researched)hazards contributing to the devastation TCs leave in their wake.While gale-force winds and storm surge produce the majority of damage and fatalities globally,TC tornadoes also pose a fatal threat,complicating evacuation plans and protective actions as the storm moves inland.Climatological studies characterize TC-spawned tornadoes as usually weak and short-lived,primarily originating from miniature supercells in the outer rainbands.These tornadic features pose challenges to forecasting and radar detection.Additionally,TC tornadoes can pose a threat to communities 12 h prior to and beyond 48 h after a TC makes landfall.Research,both basic and operational,has increased globally over the last few years in efforts to move from a climatological to ingredientsbased approach to detect and forecast TC tornadoes.While the United States has led the charge,given the increased exposure to tornadoes year round,other nations such as China,Japan,and Australia have increased their efforts to record and detect TC tornadoes.Despite these advancements,more work needs to be done globally to understand the TC environment conducive for tornadic activity.Recommendations for future forecasting and research for TC tornadoes include i)develop a comprehensive global tornado database to improve research and forecasting efforts;ii)apply innovative technology to detect tornadoes;and iii)conduct field campaigns to thoroughly sample TC tornado environments,particularly along coastlines.展开更多
This study presents finely resolved radar signatures of multiple cyclonic vortices associated with an EF2 tornadic supercell that occurred in Guangzhou on 16 June 2022 and discusses how the mesocyclone formed on the l...This study presents finely resolved radar signatures of multiple cyclonic vortices associated with an EF2 tornadic supercell that occurred in Guangzhou on 16 June 2022 and discusses how the mesocyclone formed on the lee side of mountain.A nearby X-band phased-array radar provides evidence that the mesocyclone was shallow,with a depth generally confined to less than 3 km.The mesocyclonic feature was observed to initiate from near-ground level,driven by the interaction between intensifying cold pool surges and shallow lee-side ambient flows.It was first recognized shortly after the presence of near-ground cyclonic convergence signatures over the leading edges of cold pool outflows.Over the subsequent 17 min,the mesocyclone developed upward,reaching a maximum height of 3 km,and produced a tornado 8min later.Nearly coinciding with the time of tornadogenesis,a noticeable separation of the low-level tornado cyclone from the midlevel mesocyclone was observed.This shift in the vertically oriented vortex tube was likely caused by modifications to the low-level flow due to the complex hilly terrain or by occlusions associated with rear-flank downdrafts.After tornadogenesis,high-resolution X-PAR observations revealed that the lowest-level mesocyclonic signature contracted into a gate-to-gate tornadic vortex signature(TVS)at the tip of hook echoes.Compared to conventional S-band operational weather radars,rapid-scan X-PAR observations indicate that a core diameter threshold of 1.5–2 km could be employed to identify a cyclonically sheared radial velocity couplet as a TVS,potentially extending the lead time for Doppler-based tornado warnings.展开更多
Astronomical extreme events or phenomena include black holes as well as nebulae systems that resemble the Milky Way. Meteorological extreme events or phenomena include tornadoes and tropical cyclones. The new high ene...Astronomical extreme events or phenomena include black holes as well as nebulae systems that resemble the Milky Way. Meteorological extreme events or phenomena include tornadoes and tropical cyclones. The new high energy state of matter expanding outwards by spin jets from the two poles of an astronomical black hole, the new high energy state of matter in a funnel-shaped vortex showed a meteorological tornado expanding downwards from a rotated disk of cumulonimbus clouds, the new high energy state of matter in a tropical cyclone and the new high energy state of a nebulae system converging celestial materials are phenomena across disciplines and multiple time-space scales that have not yet been physically explained. In this paper, the theory of orthogonal collision in the rotational contraction continuum is used to unify the understanding of diverse extreme events or phenomena through a single dynamical mechanism, offering insights into natural processes across disciplines. In the field of astronomy, the orthogonal collision of two-beam rotating and contracting particles or stars associated with centripetal forces forms a new high-energy state of matter at the collision point and the new high-energy particles have expanding forces outward to both sides of the collision plane. In the field of meteorology, the orthogonal collision of multiple horizontally rotating and contracting airflows associated with centripetal forces forms a new high energy state of matter at the collision point as well as an updraft force and a downdraft force vertically. The updraft force and downdraft force formed by the collision of anomalous wet airflows in the lower atmosphere can well indicate tornado, thunderstorm and extreme precipitation. The orthogonal collision theory can be applied to explain new states of matter in disciplines from the astronomical scale to the meteorological scale and the Planck scale.展开更多
Confirming tornado occurrence and estimating tornado intensity are quite challenging,especially for long-track tornadoes and tornado outbreaks,because of the inefficiency or absence of on-site damage surveys,especiall...Confirming tornado occurrence and estimating tornado intensity are quite challenging,especially for long-track tornadoes and tornado outbreaks,because of the inefficiency or absence of on-site damage surveys,especially in sparsely populated regions,which brings about large uncertainties in the tornado record.Some potential methods to alleviate this uncertainty in tornado records have been introduced,such as reports from tornado enthusiasts,trawling of social media sites,and spaceborne photography,which have been shown to be efficient in collecting damage information and depicting the damage swath and ascertaining tornado records.Unmanned aerial vehicles may help in effectively rating tornado intensities.Since 2021,some of these methods have been being tested or are under operation at the China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key Laboratory and the Foshan Tornado Research Center,and have proved to be effective.They have great potential in advancing tornado or downburst damage surveys nationally or worldwide,as well as assessing tornado climatologies,especially in sparsely populated regions such as Northeast China.展开更多
There has been a large increase in the number of days per year with numerous EF1-EF5 tornadoes.Given the significant damage incurred by tornadoes upon communities,community resilience analyses for tornado-stricken com...There has been a large increase in the number of days per year with numerous EF1-EF5 tornadoes.Given the significant damage incurred by tornadoes upon communities,community resilience analyses for tornado-stricken communities have been gaining momentum.As the community resilience analysis aims to guide how to lay out effective hazard mitigation strategies to decrease damage and improve recovery,a comprehensive and accurate approach is necessary.Agent-based modeling,an analysis approach in which different types of agents are created with their properties and behavior clearly defined to simulate the processes of those agents in an external environ-ment,is the most comprehensive and accurate approach so far to conducting community resilience simulations and investigating the decision-making for mitigation and recovery under natural hazards.In this paper,agent-based models(ABMs)are created to simulate the recovery process of a virtual testbed based on the real-world community in Joplin City,MO.The tornado path associated with the real-world tornado event that occurred in May 2011 is adopted in the tornado hazard modeling for the Joplin testbed.In addition,agent-based models are created for another virtual community in the Midwest United States named Centerville using an assumed tornado scenario of the same EF-scale as that in Joplin.The effects of hazard mitigation strategies on the two communities are also explored.A comparison between the analysis results of these two testbeds can indicate the influence of the characteristics of a tornado-prone community on the resilience of the community as well as on the effects of hazard mitigation strategies.It is observed that a community’s level of development significantly impacts the tornado resilience.In addition,the effects of a specific type of hazard mitigation strategy on the recovery process are contingent upon testbed characteristics.展开更多
基金supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China National "973" Fundamental Research Program (Grant No.2013CB430103)
文摘1.Introduction Compared with the United States,whose annual number of tornadoes can exceed 1000,the average number of tornadoes per year in China over the past half a century is estimated to be fewer than 100（Fan and Yu,2015）,even though both countries are located in a similar latitudinal zone of the Northern Hemisphere.
基金supported by the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences in the framework of the theme 'Disasters'
文摘Recent advances in modeling of tornadoes and twisters consist of significant achievements in mathematical calculation of occurrence and evolution of a violent F5-class tornado on the Fujita scale, and four-dimensional mathematical modeling of a tornado with the fourth coordinate time multiplied by its characteristic velocity. Such a tornado can arise in a thunderstorm supercell filled with turbulent whirlwinds. A theory of the squall storms is proposed. The squall storm is modeled by running pertur- bation of the temperature inversion on the lower boundary of cloudiness. This perturbation is induced by the action of strong, hurricane winds in the upper and middle troposphere, and looks like a running solitary wave （soliton）; which is developed also in a field of pressure and velocity of a wind. If a soliton of a squall storm gets into the thunderstorm supercell then this soliton is captured by supercell. It leads to additional pressure fall of air inside a storm supercell and stimulate amplification of wind velocity here. As a result, a cyclostrophic balance inside a storm supercell generates a tornado. Comparison of the radial distribution of wind velocity inside a tornado calculated by using the new formulas and equations with radar observations of the wind velocity inside Texas Tornado Dummit in 1995 and inside the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado shows good correspondence.
文摘Tornadoes and cyclones, as is stated in numerous literary and audiovisual works dedicated to these out of balance physical systems, are two powerful and spectacular atmospheric phenomena whose vertical and horizontal profiles of winds and temperatures are not yet well known. Indeed, data and routine observations accumulated in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) databases, regardless of their diversity and perfection of the instruments used to achieve these data (e.g. satellites, onboard cameras, wind profilers, ultra modern calculators, etc.), offer mind-blowing performances on the extent of damage caused by these disturbances, but information provided by these ground and space based observations will never allow access to real profiles of winds associated with tornadoes and cyclones both at the ground’s surface and aloft. The works recently carried out by C. Mbane Biouele allow us to discover that winds associated with tornadoes and hurricanes result from vectors addition of troposphere’s horizontal geostrophic winds and vertical movements associated with passive convection. Unfortunately, geostrophic wind and passive convection are two familiar meteorological phenomena described with much awkwardness and monumental mistakes by all scientific books written by authors who have remained loyal to Hadley principle which states (for centuries) that hot air is lighter than cold air. It is very important to know that C. Mbane Biouele’s very recent publications demonstrate that Hadley principle is not valid in the troposphere’s regions occupied by Ferrell cells. Indeed, it is urgent for the development of meteorology to highlight with great insistence to everyone that there is a Physics principle diametrically opposed to popular Hadley one which provides thermodynamic reasons of the formation of Ferrell cells. This Principle will be named Mbane Biouele Principe and be clearly stated in this paper.
基金The Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning is a NIST-funded Center of Excellencethe Center is funded through a cooper-ative agreement between the U.S.National Institute of Standards and Technology and Colorado State University(NIST Financial Assistance Award Numbers:70NANB15H044 and 70NANB20H008).
文摘Tornadoes can destroy or severely damage physical infrastructure including buildings in a community.This can result in direct losses but also indirect losses such as the closure of key social institutions reverberating further through the community(e.g.,schools).Despite significant losses in past events,building codes and standards have not previously included tornado hazards because of the relatively low probability of a direct strike.The recent release of the ASCE 7-22 standard considers tornadoes for Risk Category 3 and 4 buildings,i.e.ranging from schools to critical facilities.This study proposes a series of design combinations of a reinforced masonry school building with different performance targets intended to enable schools to reopen sooner.Tornado fragilities were developed for a school building having improved designs using tornado loads determined based on the new tornado chapter in ASCE 7-22,and then integrated into a community level model with school attendance zones to examine the effect.The ultimate goal in this study is to investigate the effect of improving school building designs would have on maintaining school continuity(and more rapid return)for school children.
基金Supported by the Science and Technology Program of Liaoning Province(2019-MZ-199 and 2019-ZD-0859)。
文摘Based on the data of tornadoes in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2005,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of tornadoes were analyzed by means of moving average,Daniel trend test and other methods.The results show that the frequency of tornadoes in coastal areas was obviously higher than that in land.Tornadoes mainly occurred in the central plains,the coastal areas of Liaodong Peninsula and the junction of plain and sea.The frequency of tornadoes was the highest in the 1980s and the lowest in the 1990s,and suddenly increased in 2005.The occurrence of tornadoes had an obvious seasonal change.They mainly happened in summer,peaking in September.During a day,most of them appeared from 13:00 to 21:00,and lasted for only a few minutes to dozens of minutes.The frequency of tornadoes showed a significant downward trend during 1991-2000 and a significant upward trend during 1961-1970 and 2001-2005.There were eight serious tornadoes in the 55 years,among which the tornado occurring in 1988 was the severest,and the number of deaths caused by the tornado in 1969 was the largest.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2342204)Key Innovation Team for Severe Convective Weather of the CMA(CMA2022ZD07)。
文摘Tornado disasters are intense and have been attracting significant social attention.This article reviews recent research progress on tornado mechanisms,intensity scales,and damage survey methodologies.It examines key aspects such as processes of tornadic vortex formation and dissipation,challenges in field survey and intensity estimation,and so on,and provides outlook for future research.While the favorable environmental conditions for mesocyclone tornadoes are well documented,several critical questions remain unresolved:the role of low-level atmospheric humidity under cold vortex conditions,the influence of convective available potential energy in tropical cyclone tornadoes,and the environmental prerequisites for tornado outbreak events.The formation of mesocyclone tornadoes involves multiple stages:development of mesocyclones,generation and organization of near-surface vortex patches,subsequent intensification,and the critical influence of surface friction leading to the development of tornado vortex boundary layers and corner flow regions.Topography exerts complex effects on tornado behavior,typically causing weakening during uphill movement and intensification during descent.Tornado dissipation mechanisms vary,with any disruption to sustaining factors potentially leading to vortex demise.Common tornado intensity scales include the Fujita(F),Enhanced Fujita(EF),and TORRO(T)scales.The T-scale features the most detailed categorization(11levels),while the EF-scale remains the most widely adopted standard internationally.China's national tornado intensity classification system aligns directly with the EF-scale.Significant advancements have been made in severe wind damage survey methods and procedures,with extensive tornado case data now available in China.However,the complex disaster mechanisms of tornadoes introduce substantial uncertainty in intensity assessment.Continued improvements are needed in high-resolution observations,damage survey techniques,physical mechanism studies,and forecasting/warning capabilities to enhance tornado preparedness and mitigation efforts.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42305013)Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(Grant Nos.23NLTSQ002 and 24NLTSQ001)+2 种基金China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key Laboratory(Grant No.TKL202307)the China Meteorological Administration Youth Innovation Team Fund(Grant No.CMA2024QN05)a research project of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science(Grant No.2023Z019)。
文摘This study presents a comprehensive analysis of 132 tornadic events in northeastern China from 2004 to 2023,utilizing radar and ERA5 reanalysis data to investigate the climatology,environmental drivers,and synoptic linkages with Northeast China cold vortices(NCCVs)of tornadic storms under different convective modes.Results reveal that discrete storms account for 70%of events,with clustered cells(CC)being the most frequent mode,while significant tornadoes(EF2+)are primarily associated with isolated cells(IC)and broken lines(BL).The storm mode distribution in northeastern China resembles that of the central United States but with a higher proportion of CC and lower IC.In contrast,southern China exhibits a higher frequency of quasi-linear(QL)modes(>50%),similar to European patterns.Although no single parameter clearly differentiates between all tornado modes,distinct morphological characteristics emerge through specific parameter combinations:NL modes are characterized by high 0-1 km storm-relative helicity(SRH1)and humidity but low 0-6 km shear(SR6),whereas IC modes display contrasting features with low SRH1 and high CAPE.Notably,83%of tornadoes are associated with NCCVs,preferentially forming in southeastern/southwestern quadrants.Strong tornadoes favor southeastern quadrants,while NCCV intensity correlates with tornadic distance from vortex centers.Three characteristic synoptic configurations emerge:(T1)strong deep vortices with vertically aligned cold troughs,generating southeast-dominant tornado clusters characterized by a high proportion of BL and QL modes;(T2)weaker vortices featuring sub-synoptic troughs,with southern-distributed events dominated by a predominance of the CC mode;(T3)transverse-trough systems exhibiting CAPE-SRH decoupling and reduced tornadic activity.This study enhances our understanding of tornadoes in northeastern China,informing future research on formation mechanisms,prediction methods,and disaster prevention strategies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41875051, 41425018 & 41775094)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 2019M653146)the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (Grant No. JP18H01277)
文摘We surveyed the occurrence of tropical cyclone(TC) tornadoes in China from 2006 to 2018. There were 64 cataloged TC tornadoes, with an average of five per year. About one-third of the landfalling TCs in China were tornadic. Consistent with previous studies, TC tornadoes preferentially formed in the afternoon shortly before and within about 36 h after landfall of the TCs. These tornadoes mainly occurred in coastal areas with relatively flat terrains. The maximum number of TC tornadoes occurred in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces. Most of the TC tornadoes were spawned within 500 km of the TC center. Two notable characteristics were found:(1) TC tornadoes in China mainly occurred in the northeast quadrant(Earth-relative coordinates) rather than the right-front quadrant(TC motion-relative coordinates) of the parent TC circulation;and(2) most tornadoes were produced by TCs with a relatively weak intensity(tropical depressions/storms), in contrast with the United States where most tornadoes are associated with stronger TCs. Further analyses showed that TC tornadoes in China tend to be spawned in an environment with large low-level storm relative helicity and large convective available potential energy taking entrainment effects into account. TC tornadoes were particularly active in 2018, with 24 reported tornadoes accounting for 37.5% of the total surveyed samples. The first recorded tornado outbreak in the modern history of China occurred in the envelope of TC Yagi(2018), in which 11 tornadoes were reported in association with significant midlevel intrusions of dry air and the interaction of Yagi with an approaching midlatitude midlevel trough.
文摘This study investigated the economic impact of tornadoes and damaging winds on county-level income growth in the United States from 1969 to 2023.Using a fi xed eff ect regression methodology,the analysis showed that an average damaging storm and an average tornado reduced income growth in the aff ected counties by 0.16–0.23%and 0.21–0.23%,respectively,translating into a one-time growth loss of approximately USD 5.6 million and USD 6.3 million.The fi ndings also indicate that tornadoes have a 20%greater economic impact than damaging winds.This study underscored the unique challenges posed by tornadoes and damaging winds,which are characterized by their unpredictable nature and concentrated but extreme damage.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41175043)
文摘Based on analysis of historical tornado observation data provided by the primary network of national weather stations in China for the period from 1960 to 2009, it is found that most tornadoes in China （85%） occurred over plains. Specifically, large numbers of tornado occurrences are found in the Northeast Plain, the North China Plain, the middle-lower Yangtze Plain, and the Pearl River Delta Plain. A flat underlying surface is conducive to tornado occurrence, while the latitudal variation of tornado occurrence in China is not so obvious. Tornadoes mainly occur in summer, and the highest frequency is in July. Note that the beginning and the time span of tornado outbreaks are different in North and South China. Tornadoes occur during May-September in South China （south of 25°N）, June-September in Northeast China （north of 40°N）, July-September in the middle-lower Yangtze Plain, and July-August in North China （between 25° and 40°N）. More than 80% of total tornadoes occurred during the above periods for the specific regions. The 1960s and 1970s have seen about twice the average number of tornadoes （7.5 times per year） compared to the mean for 1960-2009. The most frequent occurrence of tornado was in the early and mid 1960s; there were large fluctuations in the 1970s; and the number of tornadoes in the 1980s approached the 50-yr average. Tornado occurrences gradually decreased in the late 1980s, and an abrupt change with dramatic decrease occurred in 1994. The decrease in the tornado occurrence frequency is consistent with the simultaneous climatic change in the meteorological elements that are favorable for tornado formation. Tornado formation requires large vertical wind shear and sufficient atmospheric moisture content near the ground. Changes in the vertical wind shear at both 0-1 and 0-6 km appear to be one important factor that results in the decrease in tornado formation. The changing tendency of relative humidity also has contributed to the decrease in tornado formation in China.
文摘This report synthesizes global tropical cyclone(TC)tornado research and operational practices to date.Tornadoes are one of the secondary(and lesser researched)hazards contributing to the devastation TCs leave in their wake.While gale-force winds and storm surge produce the majority of damage and fatalities globally,TC tornadoes also pose a fatal threat,complicating evacuation plans and protective actions as the storm moves inland.Climatological studies characterize TC-spawned tornadoes as usually weak and short-lived,primarily originating from miniature supercells in the outer rainbands.These tornadic features pose challenges to forecasting and radar detection.Additionally,TC tornadoes can pose a threat to communities 12 h prior to and beyond 48 h after a TC makes landfall.Research,both basic and operational,has increased globally over the last few years in efforts to move from a climatological to ingredientsbased approach to detect and forecast TC tornadoes.While the United States has led the charge,given the increased exposure to tornadoes year round,other nations such as China,Japan,and Australia have increased their efforts to record and detect TC tornadoes.Despite these advancements,more work needs to be done globally to understand the TC environment conducive for tornadic activity.Recommendations for future forecasting and research for TC tornadoes include i)develop a comprehensive global tornado database to improve research and forecasting efforts;ii)apply innovative technology to detect tornadoes;and iii)conduct field campaigns to thoroughly sample TC tornado environments,particularly along coastlines.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFC3004101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42275006)+2 种基金the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2022A1515011814)the China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key Laboratory(Grant No.TKL202302)the Science and Technology Research Project of Guangdong Meteorological Service(Grant No.GRMC2023Q35)。
文摘This study presents finely resolved radar signatures of multiple cyclonic vortices associated with an EF2 tornadic supercell that occurred in Guangzhou on 16 June 2022 and discusses how the mesocyclone formed on the lee side of mountain.A nearby X-band phased-array radar provides evidence that the mesocyclone was shallow,with a depth generally confined to less than 3 km.The mesocyclonic feature was observed to initiate from near-ground level,driven by the interaction between intensifying cold pool surges and shallow lee-side ambient flows.It was first recognized shortly after the presence of near-ground cyclonic convergence signatures over the leading edges of cold pool outflows.Over the subsequent 17 min,the mesocyclone developed upward,reaching a maximum height of 3 km,and produced a tornado 8min later.Nearly coinciding with the time of tornadogenesis,a noticeable separation of the low-level tornado cyclone from the midlevel mesocyclone was observed.This shift in the vertically oriented vortex tube was likely caused by modifications to the low-level flow due to the complex hilly terrain or by occlusions associated with rear-flank downdrafts.After tornadogenesis,high-resolution X-PAR observations revealed that the lowest-level mesocyclonic signature contracted into a gate-to-gate tornadic vortex signature(TVS)at the tip of hook echoes.Compared to conventional S-band operational weather radars,rapid-scan X-PAR observations indicate that a core diameter threshold of 1.5–2 km could be employed to identify a cyclonically sheared radial velocity couplet as a TVS,potentially extending the lead time for Doppler-based tornado warnings.
文摘Astronomical extreme events or phenomena include black holes as well as nebulae systems that resemble the Milky Way. Meteorological extreme events or phenomena include tornadoes and tropical cyclones. The new high energy state of matter expanding outwards by spin jets from the two poles of an astronomical black hole, the new high energy state of matter in a funnel-shaped vortex showed a meteorological tornado expanding downwards from a rotated disk of cumulonimbus clouds, the new high energy state of matter in a tropical cyclone and the new high energy state of a nebulae system converging celestial materials are phenomena across disciplines and multiple time-space scales that have not yet been physically explained. In this paper, the theory of orthogonal collision in the rotational contraction continuum is used to unify the understanding of diverse extreme events or phenomena through a single dynamical mechanism, offering insights into natural processes across disciplines. In the field of astronomy, the orthogonal collision of two-beam rotating and contracting particles or stars associated with centripetal forces forms a new high-energy state of matter at the collision point and the new high-energy particles have expanding forces outward to both sides of the collision plane. In the field of meteorology, the orthogonal collision of multiple horizontally rotating and contracting airflows associated with centripetal forces forms a new high energy state of matter at the collision point as well as an updraft force and a downdraft force vertically. The updraft force and downdraft force formed by the collision of anomalous wet airflows in the lower atmosphere can well indicate tornado, thunderstorm and extreme precipitation. The orthogonal collision theory can be applied to explain new states of matter in disciplines from the astronomical scale to the meteorological scale and the Planck scale.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42275006 and 42030604)the Science and Technology Research Project in Social Field of Foshan(Grant No.2120001008761)。
文摘Confirming tornado occurrence and estimating tornado intensity are quite challenging,especially for long-track tornadoes and tornado outbreaks,because of the inefficiency or absence of on-site damage surveys,especially in sparsely populated regions,which brings about large uncertainties in the tornado record.Some potential methods to alleviate this uncertainty in tornado records have been introduced,such as reports from tornado enthusiasts,trawling of social media sites,and spaceborne photography,which have been shown to be efficient in collecting damage information and depicting the damage swath and ascertaining tornado records.Unmanned aerial vehicles may help in effectively rating tornado intensities.Since 2021,some of these methods have been being tested or are under operation at the China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key Laboratory and the Foshan Tornado Research Center,and have proved to be effective.They have great potential in advancing tornado or downburst damage surveys nationally or worldwide,as well as assessing tornado climatologies,especially in sparsely populated regions such as Northeast China.
基金Financial support for this work was provided by the US Department of Commerce,the National Institute of Standards and Technology(NIST)under the Financial Assistance Award Number#70NANB20H008the US National Science Foundation(NSF)under Award Number 2052930.
文摘There has been a large increase in the number of days per year with numerous EF1-EF5 tornadoes.Given the significant damage incurred by tornadoes upon communities,community resilience analyses for tornado-stricken communities have been gaining momentum.As the community resilience analysis aims to guide how to lay out effective hazard mitigation strategies to decrease damage and improve recovery,a comprehensive and accurate approach is necessary.Agent-based modeling,an analysis approach in which different types of agents are created with their properties and behavior clearly defined to simulate the processes of those agents in an external environ-ment,is the most comprehensive and accurate approach so far to conducting community resilience simulations and investigating the decision-making for mitigation and recovery under natural hazards.In this paper,agent-based models(ABMs)are created to simulate the recovery process of a virtual testbed based on the real-world community in Joplin City,MO.The tornado path associated with the real-world tornado event that occurred in May 2011 is adopted in the tornado hazard modeling for the Joplin testbed.In addition,agent-based models are created for another virtual community in the Midwest United States named Centerville using an assumed tornado scenario of the same EF-scale as that in Joplin.The effects of hazard mitigation strategies on the two communities are also explored.A comparison between the analysis results of these two testbeds can indicate the influence of the characteristics of a tornado-prone community on the resilience of the community as well as on the effects of hazard mitigation strategies.It is observed that a community’s level of development significantly impacts the tornado resilience.In addition,the effects of a specific type of hazard mitigation strategy on the recovery process are contingent upon testbed characteristics.
