There are a lot of methods in city water consumption short-term forecasting both inside and outside the country. But among these methods there exist many advantages and shortcomings in model establishing, solving and ...There are a lot of methods in city water consumption short-term forecasting both inside and outside the country. But among these methods there exist many advantages and shortcomings in model establishing, solving and predicting accuracy, speed, applicability. This article draws lessons from other realm mature methods after many years′ study. It′s systematically studied and compared to predict the water consumption in accuracy, speed, effect and applicability among the time series triangle function method, artificial neural network method, gray system theories method, wavelet analytical method.展开更多
From the viewpoint of systems energy conservation, the influences of material flow on its energy consumption in a steel manufacturing process is an important subject. The quantitative analysis of the relationship betw...From the viewpoint of systems energy conservation, the influences of material flow on its energy consumption in a steel manufacturing process is an important subject. The quantitative analysis of the relationship between material flow and the energy intensity is useful to save energy in steel industry. Based on the concept of standard material flow diagram, all possible situations of ferric material flow in steel manufacturing process are analyzed. The expressions of the influence of material flow deviated from standard material flow diagram on energy consumption are put forward.展开更多
With the development of distribution automation system, the centralized meter reading system has been adopted more and more extensively, which provides real-time electricity consumption data of end-users, and conseque...With the development of distribution automation system, the centralized meter reading system has been adopted more and more extensively, which provides real-time electricity consumption data of end-users, and consequently lays foundation for operating condition on-line analysis of distribution network. In this paper, a modified back/forward sweep method, which directly uses real-time electricity consumption data acquired from the centralized meter reading system, is proposedto realize voltage analysis based on 24-hour electricity consumption data of a typical transformer district. Furthermore, the calculated line losses are verified through data collected from the energy metering of the distribution transformer, illustrating that the proposed method can be applied in analyzing voltage level and discovering unknown energy losses, which will lay foundation for on-line analysis, calculation and monitoring of power distribution network.展开更多
When the variable of model is large, the Lasso method and the Adaptive Lasso method can effectively select variables. This paper prediction the rural residents’ consumption expenditure in China, based on respectively...When the variable of model is large, the Lasso method and the Adaptive Lasso method can effectively select variables. This paper prediction the rural residents’ consumption expenditure in China, based on respectively using the Lasso method and the Adaptive Lasso method. The results showed that both can effectively and accurately choose the appropriate variable, but the Adaptive Lasso method is better than the Lasso method in prediction accuracy and prediction error. It shows that in variable selection and parameter estimation, Adaptive Lasso method is better than the Lasso method.展开更多
Seismic anisotropy has been extensively acknowledged as a crucial element that influences the wave propagation characteristic during wavefield simulation,inversion and imaging.Transversely isotropy(TI)and orthorhombic...Seismic anisotropy has been extensively acknowledged as a crucial element that influences the wave propagation characteristic during wavefield simulation,inversion and imaging.Transversely isotropy(TI)and orthorhombic anisotropy(OA)are two typical categories of anisotropic media in exploration geophysics.In comparison of the elastic wave equations in both TI and OA media,pseudo-acoustic wave equations(PWEs)based on the acoustic assumption can markedly reduce computational cost and complexity.However,the presently available PWEs may experience SV-wave contamination and instability when anisotropic parameters cannot satisfy the approximated condition.Exploiting pure-mode wave equations can effectively resolve the above-mentioned issues and generate pure P-wave events without any artifacts.To further improve the computational accuracy and efficiency,we develop two novel pure qP-wave equations(PPEs)and illustrate the corresponding numerical solutions in the timespace domain for 3D tilted TI(TTI)and tilted OA(TOA)media.First,the rational polynomials are adopted to estimate the exact pure qP-wave dispersion relations,which contain complicated pseudo-differential operators with irrational forms.The polynomial coefficients are produced by applying a linear optimization algorithm to minimize the objective function difference between the expansion formula and the exact one.Then,the developed optimized PPEs are efficiently implemented using the finite-difference(FD)method in the time-space domain by introducing a scalar operator,which can help avoid the problem of spectral-based algorithms and other calculation burdens.Structures of the new equations are concise and corresponding implementation processes are straightforward.Phase velocity analyses indicate that our proposed optimized equations can lead to reliable approximation results.3D synthetic examples demonstrate that our proposed FD-based PPEs can produce accurate and stable P-wave responses,and effectively describe the wavefield features in complicated TTI and TOA media.展开更多
To provide an energy-efficient and slab-demand-compliant rolling delay strategy,the simulation software is utilized to calculate the rolling delay process of the reheating furnace.Based on energy consumption evaluatio...To provide an energy-efficient and slab-demand-compliant rolling delay strategy,the simulation software is utilized to calculate the rolling delay process of the reheating furnace.Based on energy consumption evaluation,two optimization methods were employed.The bisection approach uses the needs of the slab to estimate the rolling delay temperature,and the golden section search method uses the energy consumption analysis of the slab to determine the high-temperature insulation duration.Generally,the slab closest to the discharge position in the control zone is selected as the optimization target.The optimized slab does not show a significant temperature rise after the end of the rolling delay process.When comparing the optimized rolling delay strategies with the traditional ones,the optimized rolling delay strategies not only meet the output requirements for slabs but also offer significant advantages in terms of energy efficiency,and this advantage increases with rolling delay time.展开更多
Low levels of environmental education,energy consumption,and other anthropogenic factors strongly contribute to the rising temperature in the world's atmosphere.As such,this study reveals how energy consumption an...Low levels of environmental education,energy consumption,and other anthropogenic factors strongly contribute to the rising temperature in the world's atmosphere.As such,this study reveals how energy consumption and education affect the ecological footprint(EF)and also determines the education thresholds for EF sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa(SSA).The estimation methods in this study are strictly second-generation econometric techniques because of the problems of slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence discovered in the preliminary analysis.The results confirm cointegration,warranting the need for long-run parameter estimators.The Augment Mean Group estimator suggests that natural resources,non-renewable energy consumption(NRE),and economic growth increase the EF.Although renewable energy consumption(REN)and globalization reduce the EF,these indicators are insignificant.The results of the Method of Moment Quantile Regression(MMQR)reveal that REN exacts an indirect effect on the EF via education.Furthermore,the education thresholds required for ecological sustainability have been established.In line with these outcomes,it is proposed that the region redesign its energy policy to encourage eco-friendly consumption by leaning more on pro-environmental strategies and tightening environmental regulations.展开更多
For the carbon-neutral,a multi-carrier renewable energy system(MRES),driven by the wind,solar and geothermal,was considered as an effective solution to mitigate CO2emissions and reduce energy usage in the building sec...For the carbon-neutral,a multi-carrier renewable energy system(MRES),driven by the wind,solar and geothermal,was considered as an effective solution to mitigate CO2emissions and reduce energy usage in the building sector.A proper sizing method was essential for achieving the desired 100%renewable energy system of resources.This paper presented a bi-objective optimization formulation for sizing the MRES using a constrained genetic algorithm(GA)coupled with the loss of power supply probability(LPSP)method to achieve the minimal cost of the system and the reliability of the system to the load real time requirement.An optimization App has been developed in MATLAB environment to offer a user-friendly interface and output the optimized design parameters when given the load demand.A case study of a swimming pool building was used to demonstrate the process of the proposed design method.Compared to the conventional distributed energy system,the MRES is feasible with a lower annual total cost(ATC).Additionally,the ATC decreases as the power supply reliability of the renewable system decreases.There is a decrease of 24%of the annual total cost when the power supply probability is equal to 8%compared to the baseline case with 0%power supply probability.展开更多
Energy consumption is an important quality index in the production of seamless tubes. The complex factors affecting energy consumption make it difficult to build its mechanism model, and optimization is also very diff...Energy consumption is an important quality index in the production of seamless tubes. The complex factors affecting energy consumption make it difficult to build its mechanism model, and optimization is also very difficult, if not impossible. The piercing process was divided into three parts based on the production process, and an energy consumption prediction model was proposed based on the step mean value staged multiway partial least square meth- od. On the basis of the batch process prediction model, a genetic algorithm was adopted to calculate the optimum mean value of each process parameter and the minimum piercing energy consumption. Simulation proves that the op- timization method based on the energy consumption prediction model can obtain the optimum process parameters effectively and also provide reliable evidences for practical production.展开更多
The sensor system is one of the modern and important methods of irrigation management in arid and semi-arid areas, which is water as the limiting factor for crop production. The study was applied for 2016 and 2017 sea...The sensor system is one of the modern and important methods of irrigation management in arid and semi-arid areas, which is water as the limiting factor for crop production. The study was applied for 2016 and 2017 seasons out in Al-Yousifya, 15 km Southwest of Baghdad. A study was conducted to evaluate coefficient uniformity, uniformity distribution and application efficiency for furrow, surface drip and subsurface drip irrigation methods and it was (98, 97 and 89)% and (97, 96 and 88)% for 2016 and 2017 seasons;respectively. And control the volumetric moisture content according to the rhizosphere depth for depths of 10, 20 and 30 cm by means of the sensor system. The results indicated that the height consumptive water use of furrow 707.91 and 689.69 mm<span style="white-space:nowrap;">·</span>season<sup>-1</sup> and the lowest for subsurface drip with emitter deep at 20 cm 313.93 and 293.50 mm<span style="white-space:nowrap;">·</span>season<sup>-1</sup> for 2016 and 2017 seasons;respectively. As well, the highest value of water use efficiency for subsurface in drip irrigation at a depth of 20 cm, was 2.71 and 2.99 kg<span style="white-space:nowrap;">·</span>m<sup>-3</sup> and the lowest value for furrow irrigation was 1.12 and 1.20 kg<span style="white-space:nowrap;">·</span>m<sup>-3</sup> for the 2016 and 2017 seasons;respectively.展开更多
The annual allocation, inter-annual variation and relation of water diversion and recession are analyzed in Ningxia reach of the Yellow River main stream from 1999 to 2012. Water consumption in Ningxia reach was calcu...The annual allocation, inter-annual variation and relation of water diversion and recession are analyzed in Ningxia reach of the Yellow River main stream from 1999 to 2012. Water consumption in Ningxia reach was calculated by water diversion-recession method and water balance method. The average value of water diversion-recession method is 3.264 billion m3 and annual varia-tion is relatively steady. The result of water balance method is 3.937 billion m3 and annual variation is obvious. It is suggested that strengthen verification of entrances and monitoring of water diversion and recession.展开更多
Coal consumption curve of the thermal power plant can reflect the function relationship between the coal consumption of unit and load, which plays a key role for research on unit economic operation and load optimal di...Coal consumption curve of the thermal power plant can reflect the function relationship between the coal consumption of unit and load, which plays a key role for research on unit economic operation and load optimal dispatch. Now get coal consumption curve is generally obtained by least square method, but which are static curve and these curves remain unchanged for a long time, and make them are incompatible with the actual operation situation of the unit. Furthermore, coal consumption has the characteristics of typical nonlinear and time varying, sometimes the least square method does not work for nonlinear complex problems. For these problems, a method of coal consumption curve fitting of the thermal power plant units based on genetic algorithm is proposed. The residual analysis method is used for data detection;quadratic function is employed to the objective function;appropriate parameters such as initial population size, crossover rate and mutation rate are set;the unit’s actual coal consumption curves are fitted, and comparing the proposed method with least squares method, the results indicate that fitting effect of the former is better than the latter, and further indicate that the proposed method to do curve fitting can best approximate known data in a certain significance, and they can real-timely reflect the interdependence between power output and coal consumption.展开更多
Wholesale and retail markets for electricity and power require consumers to forecast electricity consumption at different time intervals. The study aims to</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"&g...Wholesale and retail markets for electricity and power require consumers to forecast electricity consumption at different time intervals. The study aims to</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> increase economic efficiency of the enterprise through the introduction of algorithm for forecasting electric energy consumption unchanged in technological process. Qualitative forecast allows you to essentially reduce costs of electrical </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">energy, because power cannot be stockpiled. Therefore, when buying excess electrical power, costs can increase either by selling it on the balancing energy </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">market or by maintaining reserve capacity. If the purchased power is insufficient, the costs increase is due to the purchase of additional capacity. This paper illustrates three methods of forecasting electric energy consumption: autoregressive integrated moving average method, artificial neural networks and classification and regression trees. Actual data from consuming of electrical energy was </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">used to make day, week and month ahead prediction. The prediction effect of</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">prediction model was proved in Statistica simulation environment. Analysis of estimation of the economic efficiency of prediction methods demonstrated that the use of the artificial neural networks method for short-term forecast </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">allowed reducing the cost of electricity more efficiently. However, for mid-</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">range predictions, the classification and regression tree was the most efficient method for a Jerky Enterprise. The results indicate that calculation error reduction allows decreases expenses for the purchase of electric energy.展开更多
Circumferentially non-uniform tip clearances induced by rotor eccentricity significantly affect the overall performance of axial compressors,particularly the stability margin.Currently,Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD...Circumferentially non-uniform tip clearances induced by rotor eccentricity significantly affect the overall performance of axial compressors,particularly the stability margin.Currently,Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD)plays a crucial role in the aerodynamic analysis of eccentric compressors.However,conventional full-annulus Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes(URANS)simulations are prohibitively expensive for routine design and analysis purposes.To address this issue,the paper presents a novel Fourier-based method,called the Time-Space Collocation(TSC)method,for efficient simulations of eccentric compressors.This method coherently treats temporal and spatial harmonics,making it well-suited to tackle the rotor eccentricity problem,as the perturbation waves induced by eccentricity are time-periodic with respect to the rotor and space-periodic with respect to the stator.Three numerical cases,including NASA Rotor 67,original Stage 67,and Stage 67 with a reduced rotor-stator axial gap,were conducted to verify the effectiveness of the TSC method.The results indicate that,for the rotor eccentricity levels studied in this paper,the influence of weak rotor-stator interactions can be disregarded in the original Stage 67.In this situation,applying three harmonics can accurately capture both the performance variations and the non-uniformly distributed flowfields of eccentric compressors,while achieving a reduction in run time by two orders of magnitude compared to full-annulus URANS simulations.However,in Stage 67 with a reduced rotor-stator axial gap,the results that include rotor-stator interactions align much more closely with the URANS results.Nevertheless,the TSC simulations can still achieve speed-ups of several dozen times.Overall,the TSC method shows promising potential for application within the engineering community.展开更多
文摘There are a lot of methods in city water consumption short-term forecasting both inside and outside the country. But among these methods there exist many advantages and shortcomings in model establishing, solving and predicting accuracy, speed, applicability. This article draws lessons from other realm mature methods after many years′ study. It′s systematically studied and compared to predict the water consumption in accuracy, speed, effect and applicability among the time series triangle function method, artificial neural network method, gray system theories method, wavelet analytical method.
基金Item Sponsored by National Basic Research Programof China (200002600)
文摘From the viewpoint of systems energy conservation, the influences of material flow on its energy consumption in a steel manufacturing process is an important subject. The quantitative analysis of the relationship between material flow and the energy intensity is useful to save energy in steel industry. Based on the concept of standard material flow diagram, all possible situations of ferric material flow in steel manufacturing process are analyzed. The expressions of the influence of material flow deviated from standard material flow diagram on energy consumption are put forward.
文摘With the development of distribution automation system, the centralized meter reading system has been adopted more and more extensively, which provides real-time electricity consumption data of end-users, and consequently lays foundation for operating condition on-line analysis of distribution network. In this paper, a modified back/forward sweep method, which directly uses real-time electricity consumption data acquired from the centralized meter reading system, is proposedto realize voltage analysis based on 24-hour electricity consumption data of a typical transformer district. Furthermore, the calculated line losses are verified through data collected from the energy metering of the distribution transformer, illustrating that the proposed method can be applied in analyzing voltage level and discovering unknown energy losses, which will lay foundation for on-line analysis, calculation and monitoring of power distribution network.
文摘When the variable of model is large, the Lasso method and the Adaptive Lasso method can effectively select variables. This paper prediction the rural residents’ consumption expenditure in China, based on respectively using the Lasso method and the Adaptive Lasso method. The results showed that both can effectively and accurately choose the appropriate variable, but the Adaptive Lasso method is better than the Lasso method in prediction accuracy and prediction error. It shows that in variable selection and parameter estimation, Adaptive Lasso method is better than the Lasso method.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFA0716902)National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)under contract number 42374149 and 42004119National Science and Technology Major Project(2024ZD1002907)。
文摘Seismic anisotropy has been extensively acknowledged as a crucial element that influences the wave propagation characteristic during wavefield simulation,inversion and imaging.Transversely isotropy(TI)and orthorhombic anisotropy(OA)are two typical categories of anisotropic media in exploration geophysics.In comparison of the elastic wave equations in both TI and OA media,pseudo-acoustic wave equations(PWEs)based on the acoustic assumption can markedly reduce computational cost and complexity.However,the presently available PWEs may experience SV-wave contamination and instability when anisotropic parameters cannot satisfy the approximated condition.Exploiting pure-mode wave equations can effectively resolve the above-mentioned issues and generate pure P-wave events without any artifacts.To further improve the computational accuracy and efficiency,we develop two novel pure qP-wave equations(PPEs)and illustrate the corresponding numerical solutions in the timespace domain for 3D tilted TI(TTI)and tilted OA(TOA)media.First,the rational polynomials are adopted to estimate the exact pure qP-wave dispersion relations,which contain complicated pseudo-differential operators with irrational forms.The polynomial coefficients are produced by applying a linear optimization algorithm to minimize the objective function difference between the expansion formula and the exact one.Then,the developed optimized PPEs are efficiently implemented using the finite-difference(FD)method in the time-space domain by introducing a scalar operator,which can help avoid the problem of spectral-based algorithms and other calculation burdens.Structures of the new equations are concise and corresponding implementation processes are straightforward.Phase velocity analyses indicate that our proposed optimized equations can lead to reliable approximation results.3D synthetic examples demonstrate that our proposed FD-based PPEs can produce accurate and stable P-wave responses,and effectively describe the wavefield features in complicated TTI and TOA media.
文摘To provide an energy-efficient and slab-demand-compliant rolling delay strategy,the simulation software is utilized to calculate the rolling delay process of the reheating furnace.Based on energy consumption evaluation,two optimization methods were employed.The bisection approach uses the needs of the slab to estimate the rolling delay temperature,and the golden section search method uses the energy consumption analysis of the slab to determine the high-temperature insulation duration.Generally,the slab closest to the discharge position in the control zone is selected as the optimization target.The optimized slab does not show a significant temperature rise after the end of the rolling delay process.When comparing the optimized rolling delay strategies with the traditional ones,the optimized rolling delay strategies not only meet the output requirements for slabs but also offer significant advantages in terms of energy efficiency,and this advantage increases with rolling delay time.
文摘Low levels of environmental education,energy consumption,and other anthropogenic factors strongly contribute to the rising temperature in the world's atmosphere.As such,this study reveals how energy consumption and education affect the ecological footprint(EF)and also determines the education thresholds for EF sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa(SSA).The estimation methods in this study are strictly second-generation econometric techniques because of the problems of slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence discovered in the preliminary analysis.The results confirm cointegration,warranting the need for long-run parameter estimators.The Augment Mean Group estimator suggests that natural resources,non-renewable energy consumption(NRE),and economic growth increase the EF.Although renewable energy consumption(REN)and globalization reduce the EF,these indicators are insignificant.The results of the Method of Moment Quantile Regression(MMQR)reveal that REN exacts an indirect effect on the EF via education.Furthermore,the education thresholds required for ecological sustainability have been established.In line with these outcomes,it is proposed that the region redesign its energy policy to encourage eco-friendly consumption by leaning more on pro-environmental strategies and tightening environmental regulations.
基金Project(52108101)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(2020GK4057,2021JJ40759)supported by the Hunan Provincial Science and Technology Department,China。
文摘For the carbon-neutral,a multi-carrier renewable energy system(MRES),driven by the wind,solar and geothermal,was considered as an effective solution to mitigate CO2emissions and reduce energy usage in the building sector.A proper sizing method was essential for achieving the desired 100%renewable energy system of resources.This paper presented a bi-objective optimization formulation for sizing the MRES using a constrained genetic algorithm(GA)coupled with the loss of power supply probability(LPSP)method to achieve the minimal cost of the system and the reliability of the system to the load real time requirement.An optimization App has been developed in MATLAB environment to offer a user-friendly interface and output the optimized design parameters when given the load demand.A case study of a swimming pool building was used to demonstrate the process of the proposed design method.Compared to the conventional distributed energy system,the MRES is feasible with a lower annual total cost(ATC).Additionally,the ATC decreases as the power supply reliability of the renewable system decreases.There is a decrease of 24%of the annual total cost when the power supply probability is equal to 8%compared to the baseline case with 0%power supply probability.
基金Item Sponsored by National Natural Science Foundation of China (60674063)
文摘Energy consumption is an important quality index in the production of seamless tubes. The complex factors affecting energy consumption make it difficult to build its mechanism model, and optimization is also very difficult, if not impossible. The piercing process was divided into three parts based on the production process, and an energy consumption prediction model was proposed based on the step mean value staged multiway partial least square meth- od. On the basis of the batch process prediction model, a genetic algorithm was adopted to calculate the optimum mean value of each process parameter and the minimum piercing energy consumption. Simulation proves that the op- timization method based on the energy consumption prediction model can obtain the optimum process parameters effectively and also provide reliable evidences for practical production.
文摘The sensor system is one of the modern and important methods of irrigation management in arid and semi-arid areas, which is water as the limiting factor for crop production. The study was applied for 2016 and 2017 seasons out in Al-Yousifya, 15 km Southwest of Baghdad. A study was conducted to evaluate coefficient uniformity, uniformity distribution and application efficiency for furrow, surface drip and subsurface drip irrigation methods and it was (98, 97 and 89)% and (97, 96 and 88)% for 2016 and 2017 seasons;respectively. And control the volumetric moisture content according to the rhizosphere depth for depths of 10, 20 and 30 cm by means of the sensor system. The results indicated that the height consumptive water use of furrow 707.91 and 689.69 mm<span style="white-space:nowrap;">·</span>season<sup>-1</sup> and the lowest for subsurface drip with emitter deep at 20 cm 313.93 and 293.50 mm<span style="white-space:nowrap;">·</span>season<sup>-1</sup> for 2016 and 2017 seasons;respectively. As well, the highest value of water use efficiency for subsurface in drip irrigation at a depth of 20 cm, was 2.71 and 2.99 kg<span style="white-space:nowrap;">·</span>m<sup>-3</sup> and the lowest value for furrow irrigation was 1.12 and 1.20 kg<span style="white-space:nowrap;">·</span>m<sup>-3</sup> for the 2016 and 2017 seasons;respectively.
文摘The annual allocation, inter-annual variation and relation of water diversion and recession are analyzed in Ningxia reach of the Yellow River main stream from 1999 to 2012. Water consumption in Ningxia reach was calculated by water diversion-recession method and water balance method. The average value of water diversion-recession method is 3.264 billion m3 and annual varia-tion is relatively steady. The result of water balance method is 3.937 billion m3 and annual variation is obvious. It is suggested that strengthen verification of entrances and monitoring of water diversion and recession.
文摘Coal consumption curve of the thermal power plant can reflect the function relationship between the coal consumption of unit and load, which plays a key role for research on unit economic operation and load optimal dispatch. Now get coal consumption curve is generally obtained by least square method, but which are static curve and these curves remain unchanged for a long time, and make them are incompatible with the actual operation situation of the unit. Furthermore, coal consumption has the characteristics of typical nonlinear and time varying, sometimes the least square method does not work for nonlinear complex problems. For these problems, a method of coal consumption curve fitting of the thermal power plant units based on genetic algorithm is proposed. The residual analysis method is used for data detection;quadratic function is employed to the objective function;appropriate parameters such as initial population size, crossover rate and mutation rate are set;the unit’s actual coal consumption curves are fitted, and comparing the proposed method with least squares method, the results indicate that fitting effect of the former is better than the latter, and further indicate that the proposed method to do curve fitting can best approximate known data in a certain significance, and they can real-timely reflect the interdependence between power output and coal consumption.
文摘Wholesale and retail markets for electricity and power require consumers to forecast electricity consumption at different time intervals. The study aims to</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> increase economic efficiency of the enterprise through the introduction of algorithm for forecasting electric energy consumption unchanged in technological process. Qualitative forecast allows you to essentially reduce costs of electrical </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">energy, because power cannot be stockpiled. Therefore, when buying excess electrical power, costs can increase either by selling it on the balancing energy </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">market or by maintaining reserve capacity. If the purchased power is insufficient, the costs increase is due to the purchase of additional capacity. This paper illustrates three methods of forecasting electric energy consumption: autoregressive integrated moving average method, artificial neural networks and classification and regression trees. Actual data from consuming of electrical energy was </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">used to make day, week and month ahead prediction. The prediction effect of</span><span> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">prediction model was proved in Statistica simulation environment. Analysis of estimation of the economic efficiency of prediction methods demonstrated that the use of the artificial neural networks method for short-term forecast </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">allowed reducing the cost of electricity more efficiently. However, for mid-</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">range predictions, the classification and regression tree was the most efficient method for a Jerky Enterprise. The results indicate that calculation error reduction allows decreases expenses for the purchase of electric energy.
文摘Circumferentially non-uniform tip clearances induced by rotor eccentricity significantly affect the overall performance of axial compressors,particularly the stability margin.Currently,Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD)plays a crucial role in the aerodynamic analysis of eccentric compressors.However,conventional full-annulus Unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes(URANS)simulations are prohibitively expensive for routine design and analysis purposes.To address this issue,the paper presents a novel Fourier-based method,called the Time-Space Collocation(TSC)method,for efficient simulations of eccentric compressors.This method coherently treats temporal and spatial harmonics,making it well-suited to tackle the rotor eccentricity problem,as the perturbation waves induced by eccentricity are time-periodic with respect to the rotor and space-periodic with respect to the stator.Three numerical cases,including NASA Rotor 67,original Stage 67,and Stage 67 with a reduced rotor-stator axial gap,were conducted to verify the effectiveness of the TSC method.The results indicate that,for the rotor eccentricity levels studied in this paper,the influence of weak rotor-stator interactions can be disregarded in the original Stage 67.In this situation,applying three harmonics can accurately capture both the performance variations and the non-uniformly distributed flowfields of eccentric compressors,while achieving a reduction in run time by two orders of magnitude compared to full-annulus URANS simulations.However,in Stage 67 with a reduced rotor-stator axial gap,the results that include rotor-stator interactions align much more closely with the URANS results.Nevertheless,the TSC simulations can still achieve speed-ups of several dozen times.Overall,the TSC method shows promising potential for application within the engineering community.
