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Structural Characteristics of Thunderstorms Associated with Negative Triggered Lightning Flashes
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作者 Xiaojie LIU Dong ZHENG +4 位作者 Yijun ZHANG Yang ZHANG Yanfeng FAN Weitao LYU Hai YU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 2025年第10期2053-2066,共14页
This study utilizes data from a 3D lightning location system,polarimetric radar,and current measurements from channels of triggered lightning flashes(TLFs)to analyze the structural characteristics of the parent thunde... This study utilizes data from a 3D lightning location system,polarimetric radar,and current measurements from channels of triggered lightning flashes(TLFs)to analyze the structural characteristics of the parent thunderstorms associated with negative TLFs in South China.The triggered-flash region(TFR)displays distinct stratiform cloud characteristics,including lower radar reflectivity heights and a predominance of ice crystals and dry snow above the 0℃ layer.In contrast,the thunderstorm convection core region(CCR)tends to have more graupel particles in the mixed-phase layers and exhibits an ice-water content peak approximately 3.4 times that of the TFR.The charge regions involved in discharges in TFRs exhibit a dipolar charge structure,with the-5℃ layer roughly dividing the upper positive and lower negative charge regions.Conversely,the CCRs feature a typical tripolar charge structure.The dominant dipole charge structure in the TFR results in an increase in the negative charge field below the negative charge region with height,providing a necessary condition for successfully triggering negative TLFs.Furthermore,the horizontal extent of TLFs is positively correlated with their duration and charge transfer.Regions where TLF channels with larger charge transfers propagate tend to have greater maximum radar reflectivity but lower average radar reflectivity compared to regions with TLFs with smaller charge transfer. 展开更多
关键词 thunderstorms structure triggered lightning flash charge region lightning location
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Temporal and Spatial Distribution and Influence Systems of Spring Thunderstorms in 2013 in Sichuan Province
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作者 徐娓 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2014年第12期2192-2196,2203,共6页
Based on the lightning monitoring data, automatic and routine weather station observation data in spring (March-May) of 2013 of Sichuan Province, the corresponding relationship between the spatial distribution and t... Based on the lightning monitoring data, automatic and routine weather station observation data in spring (March-May) of 2013 of Sichuan Province, the corresponding relationship between the spatial distribution and the different regions, and the characteristics of atmospheric circulation and evolution of influence the sys- tem were analyzed and summarized. The results show that: the lightning and thunderstorm showed great regional differences in the spring of 2013 in Sichuan Province and the thunderstorm activity period was not the same in different areas. Because of the change of atmospheric circulation, the influence system from March to May corresponding to the thunderstorms in Sichuan tended to be volatile, also. 展开更多
关键词 SPRING THUNDERSTORM Regional differences The circulation situation In- fluence system
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Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Thunderstorms in 46 Years in Henan Province 被引量:3
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作者 韦丹 肖稳安 陈红兵 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第9期42-45,共4页
By dint of natural orthogonal function(EOF) decomposition,correlation and trend analysis methods,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of thunderstorms in recent 46 years in Henan Province were analyzed.T... By dint of natural orthogonal function(EOF) decomposition,correlation and trend analysis methods,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of thunderstorms in recent 46 years in Henan Province were analyzed.The result showed that the thunderstorms in Henan Province decreased gradually from the northwest region to the southeast region and the frequency of thunderstorms in the southeast area was relatively high.The thunderstorm intensity area was in its horizontal distribution.Thunderstorms acted relative actively in 60s and tended to dwindle in the end of 80s.While in recent years,the thunderstorms tended to increase and started act frequently.Since March to August in every year,thunderstorms multiplied in each region and decreased after September.The period between 16:00 to 20:00 was the high peak hours of thunderstorms every year.Thunderstorms distribution in Henan Province had pretty good consistence,increasing and decreasing at the same time.The annual variation of thunderstorms showed an unobvious decreasing tendency. 展开更多
关键词 THUNDERSTORM Temporal-spatial variation Henan Province China
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电离层底部“绿闪”现象的地基观测和激发背景研究
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作者 黄欣 陆高鹏 +1 位作者 黄海亮 程征伟 《地球与行星物理论评(中英文)》 2026年第1期108-117,共10页
“绿闪”(ghost)是最新发现的一种中高层瞬态发光事件(transient luminescence events,TLEs)类型,由于其拍摄条件要求较高,可分析的观测数据较少且均为单站地基光学观测.基于现有资料可查的7次ghost事件的地基观测,本文利用单站地基观... “绿闪”(ghost)是最新发现的一种中高层瞬态发光事件(transient luminescence events,TLEs)类型,由于其拍摄条件要求较高,可分析的观测数据较少且均为单站地基光学观测.基于现有资料可查的7次ghost事件的地基观测,本文利用单站地基观测并结合星场定位估算ghost高度的方法,计算得到其中5次ghost事件(其中有2个ghost事件为同一母体雷暴)发生高度范围在90到100 km.目前所知ghost事件伴随两种不同的TLEs现象,即“红色精灵”(red sprite)或者“巨大喷流”(gigantic jet).通过ghost事件与这两种TLEs现象的伴随关系表明,ghost事件的发生可能与背景条件及雷暴放电过程中的强电场和能量释放密切相关.本文进一步分析了上述7次ghost事件发生时的大气环境背景条件(如中性粒子密度、离子浓度和电子密度等),通过MSIS-E-90标准大气模型和国际参考电离层(IRI)模型得到中性粒子(O_(2)^(+)、N_(2)、O_(2))密度廓线、离子(和NO^(+))密度廓线和电子密度的分布情况,发现N_(2)、O_(2)和电子密度的突变对ghost的发生有关键作用.这些突变可能为ghost发生提供了必要介质条件.本文还通过计算ghost发光区域空间范围的变化速率,发现其远远低于流光放电时的扩散率,因此推测ghost发光可能是辉光放电的一种形式.最后,本文分析ghost的母体雷暴发展特征,发现ghost事件通常发生在对流活动开始减弱的阶段,这一现象表明,ghost的产生可能与雷暴放电过程中的总体能量释放强度有关.在雷暴活动减弱阶段,虽然对流活动下降,但雷暴云顶的电场可能仍然较强,从而为ghost事件的发生提供了必要的能量条件. 展开更多
关键词 “绿闪” 闪电 雷暴 中高层瞬态发光事件
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Case Studies of Sprite-producing and Non-sprite-producing Summer Thunderstorms 被引量:4
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作者 杨静 杨美荣 +1 位作者 刘超 冯桂力 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第6期1786-1808,共23页
Three summer thunderstorms in the eastern region of China were analyzed in detail using multiple data, including Doppler radar, lightning location network, TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), MT- SAT (Multi... Three summer thunderstorms in the eastern region of China were analyzed in detail using multiple data, including Doppler radar, lightning location network, TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), MT- SAT (Multi-Function Transport Satellite) images, NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Reanalysis, and radiosonde. Two of the three storms were sprite-producing and the other was non-sprite- producing. The two sprite-producing storms occurred on 1 2 August and 2~28 July 2007, producing 16 and one sprite, respectively. The non-sprite-producing storm occurred on 29-30 July 2007. The major ob- jective of the study was to try to find possible differences between sprite-producing and non-sprite producing storms using the multiple datasets. The results showed that the convection in the 1-2 August storm was the strongest compared with the other storms, and it produced the largest number of sprites. Precipitation ice, cloud ice and cloud water content in the convective regions in the 1-2 August storm were larger than in the other two storms, but the opposite was true in the weak convective regions. The storm microphysical prop- erties along lines through parent CG (cloud-to-ground lightning) locations showed no special characteristics related to sprites. The flash rate evolution in the 1-2 August storm provided additional confirmation that major sprite activity coincides with a rapid decrease in the negative CG flash rate. However, the evolution curve of the CG flash rate was erratic in the sprite-producing storm on 27-28 July, which was significantly different from that in the 1 2 August storm. The average positive CG peak current in sprite-producing storms was larger than that in the non-sprite-producing one. 展开更多
关键词 SPRITE Doppler radar TRMM LIGHTNING THUNDERSTORM
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Statistical Analysis of Thunderstorms on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau Based on Modified Thunderstorm Indices 被引量:2
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作者 YOU Wei ZANG Zengliang +2 位作者 PAN Xiaobin ZHANG Lifeng LI Yi 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2015年第4期515-527,共13页
The Tibetan Plateau, with an average altitude above 4000 m, is the highest and largest plateau in the world. The frequency of thunderstorms in this region is extremely high. Many indices are used in operational foreca... The Tibetan Plateau, with an average altitude above 4000 m, is the highest and largest plateau in the world. The frequency of thunderstorms in this region is extremely high. Many indices are used in operational forecasting to assess the stability of the atmosphere and predict the probability of severe thunderstorm development. One of the disadvantages of many of these indices is that they are mainly based on observations from plains. However, considering the Plateau's high elevation, most convective parameters cannot be applied directly, or their application is ineffective. The pre-convective environment on thunderstorm days in this region is investigated based on sounding data obtained throughout a five-year period(2006–10).Thunderstorms occur over the Tibetan Plateau under conditions that differ strikingly from those in plains. On this basis,stability indices, such as the Showalter index(including SI and SICCL), and the K index are improved to better assess the thunderstorm environments on the Plateau. Verification parameters, such as the true-skill statistic(TSS) and Heidke skill score(HSS), are adopted to evaluate the optimal thresholds and relative forecast skill for each modified index. Lastly, the modified indices are verified with a two-year independent dataset(2011–12), showing satisfactory results for the modified indices. For determining whether or not a thunderstorm day is likely to occur, we recommend the modified SICCLindex. 展开更多
关键词 THUNDERSTORM Tibetan Plateau modified parameters skill score
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A Probe for Consistency in CAPE and CINE During the Prevalence of Severe Thunderstorms:Statistical – Fuzzy Coupled Approach 被引量:1
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作者 Sutapa Chaudhuri 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2011年第4期197-205,共9页
Thunderstorms of pre-monsoon season (April – May) over Kolkata (22° 32’N, 88° 20’E), India are invariably accompanied with lightning flashes, high wind gusts, torrential rainfall, occasional hail and torn... Thunderstorms of pre-monsoon season (April – May) over Kolkata (22° 32’N, 88° 20’E), India are invariably accompanied with lightning flashes, high wind gusts, torrential rainfall, occasional hail and tornadoes which significantly affect the life and property on the ground and aviation aloft. The societal and economic impact due to such storms made accurate prediction of the weather phenomenon a serious concern for the meteorologists of India. The initiation of such storms requires sufficient moisture in lower troposphere, high surface temperature, conditional instability and a source of lift to initiate the convection. Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is a measure of the energy realized when conditional instability is released. It plays an important role in meso-scale convective systems. Convective inhibition energy (CINE) on the other hand acts as a possible barrier to the release of convection even in the presence of high value of CAPE. The main idea of the present study is to see whether a consistent quantitative range of CAPE and CINE can be identified for the prevalence of such thunderstorms that may aid in operational forecast. A statistical – fuzzy coupled method is implemented for the purpose. The result reveals that a definite range of CINE within 0 – 150 Jkg-1 is reasonably pertinent whereas no such range of CAPE depicts any consistency for the occurrence of severe thunderstorms over Kolkata. The measure of CINE mainly depends upon the altitude of the level of free convection (LFC), surface temperature (T) and surface mixing ratio (q). The box-and-whisker plot of LFC, T and q are drawn to select the most dependable parameter for the consistency of CINE in the prevalence of such thunderstorms. The skills of the parameters are evaluated through skill score analyses. The percentage error during validation with the observation of 2010 is estimated to be 0% for the range of CINE and 3.9% for CAPE. 展开更多
关键词 Severe thunderstorms FORECAST CAPE CINE Statistics FUZZY Logic
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Characteristics of thunderstorms and lightning flashes in the Chinese inland plateau 被引量:1
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作者 TingLong Zhang Tong Zhang Yang Zhao XiangZhen Kong YanHui Wang 《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》 2010年第3期271-277,共7页
The electrical characteristics of thunderstorms in three different altitude regions of the Chinese inland plateau have been analyzed in this paper. The results show, according to the polarity of the surface electric ... The electrical characteristics of thunderstorms in three different altitude regions of the Chinese inland plateau have been analyzed in this paper. The results show, according to the polarity of the surface electric (E) field, that the thunderstorms can be divided into two categories in the study regions: one showing the normal tripole electrical charge structure (normal-type), and the other showing the special tripole charge structure with a larger-than-usual lower positive charge center (LPCC) at the base of thunderstorm (special-type), where the induced surface E field is controlled by the LPCC when a thunderstorm is overhead. We find that the two types of thunderstorms have different occurrences in different regions, and the percentage of special-type thunderstorms increases with the altitude. On the whole, the flash rate of thunderstorms is quite low, and the mean value is about 1-3 fl/min, while the flash rate of special-type is slightly greater than that of the normal-type thunderstorm. The statistical results of cloud-to-ground flash (CG) numbers indicate that the ratio of +CG flash increases with the altitude, with the value about 14.7 percent through 25.4 percent. 展开更多
关键词 thunderstorm flash rate cloud-to-ground flash
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Three-Dimensional Numerical Simulations of the Effects of a Cold Water Surface on the Evolution and Propagation of Thunderstorms
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作者 孔凡铀 黄美元 徐华英 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1993年第3期261-272,共12页
The influences of large areas of semi-unbounded cold water surface on the evolution, propagation and precipitation production of thunderstorms are simulated by using a fully elastic three-dimensional numerical hailsto... The influences of large areas of semi-unbounded cold water surface on the evolution, propagation and precipitation production of thunderstorms are simulated by using a fully elastic three-dimensional numerical hailstorm model. Real sounding profiles for temperature, humidity and wind are employed. The model has successfully simulated the significant modification of the propagation path of thunderstorms near the cold water area. The path change can be either' along-bank' or' toward-bank', depending on the position of the storm system relative to convergence zone of the water-land circulation. The simulations also show that thunderstorms developing or propagating within the convergence zone of local circulation will be intensified and produce much heavier hail, whereas those over cold water surface or the air that has been cooled by the water will be strongly inhibited.The influence of the cold water surface on thunderstorm characters is largely dependent upon the direction and intensity of the low-level wind. 展开更多
关键词 THUNDERSTORM Numerical simulation Water-land circulation Thunderstorm propagation
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Analysis on Climatic Characteristics of Thunderstorms in Doumen District of Zhuhai City during Recent 46 Years
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作者 Shao Yingquan Li Xiaohong 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2014年第1期9-11,共3页
Based on daily data of thunderstorms during 1967 -2012 from the national meteorological station in Doumen District of Zhuhai City, the climatic characteristics of thunderstorms in Doumen District were analyzed using c... Based on daily data of thunderstorms during 1967 -2012 from the national meteorological station in Doumen District of Zhuhai City, the climatic characteristics of thunderstorms in Doumen District were analyzed using climate tendency rate, sliding t test, trend analysis and experience frequency, The results showed that annual thunderstorm days in Doumen District showed a decreasing trend in recent 46 years; thunderstorms appeared in the whole year; monthly thunderstorm days had two peaks; thunderstorms occurred frequently in summer, especially in August, while thunderstorm days were the least in winter; annual thunderstorm days in Doumen District declined sharply in 1984; most thunderstorms began from middle February to late March and ended from late September to middle November; thunderstorms in Doumen District lasted for a long term, and there was a great change in thunderstorm duration in different years. 展开更多
关键词 Thunderstorm days Climatic characteristics Doumen China
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Study on the Distribution Characteristics of Thunderstorms in Xuzhou City
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作者 Zhaokun Wang Guangdong Sun +2 位作者 Wuguang Yan Dongliang Wei Daoqun Zhang 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2013年第11期32-34,43,共4页
[Objective] The study aimed to discuss the distribution characteristics of thunderstorms in Xuzhou City. [Method] Based on thunder- storm observation data during 1978 -2008 provided by Jiuli Mountain station, beginnin... [Objective] The study aimed to discuss the distribution characteristics of thunderstorms in Xuzhou City. [Method] Based on thunder- storm observation data during 1978 -2008 provided by Jiuli Mountain station, beginning and ending months, days, duration, frequency, hours and direction of thunderstorms in Xuzhou were analyzed. [ Result] From 1978 to 2008, there were obvious annual variations in thunderstorm days in Xuzhou City. Thunderstorm days were more in July and August compared with other months, while there were no thunderstorms in January and De- comber. Thunderstorms began earliest in February and ended latest in November, with a long span. The longest duration of thunderstorms reached 259 d, accounting for 71% of total days of a year. The maximum frequency of thunderstorms (64) appeared in 1995, and the maximum hours of thunderstorms (4 048 h) appeared in 2003. Thunderstorms occurred most frequently in the southwest, followed by SE and NW. [ Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for the prevention and control of lightning strokes in Xuzhou in future. 展开更多
关键词 THUNDERSTORM Distribution characteristic XUZHOU China
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ANALYSIS OF THE TRENDS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN 1951-2007 IN JIANGSU PROVINCE
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作者 魏建苏 刘梅 +1 位作者 张备 俞剑蔚 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2011年第1期58-63,共6页
Based on the 1951-2007 thunderstorms in Jiangsu,a study is conducted for their climate trends,periodicity,spatiotemporal patterns,and the distributions of the first and last days of the thunderstorms at different guar... Based on the 1951-2007 thunderstorms in Jiangsu,a study is conducted for their climate trends,periodicity,spatiotemporal patterns,and the distributions of the first and last days of the thunderstorms at different guarantee rates (GRs) using climate tendency rate,wavelet analysis,and GR for diagnosis.Results suggest that the inter-annual number of thunderstorm days (TSDs) exhibits a decreasing trend in this province.The trend is displayed mainly in the decreasing TSD number in summer and autumn except in spring,when the variation is not significant in the study period.In this province,the TSD number declines by ~2 days per 10 years.On an inter-annual basis,the pronounced positive departures of the number take place chiefly in the early 1960s,the late 1960s to the early-mid-1970s,the late 1980s,and the late 1990s compared with the negative anomalies dominant in the late 1970s to the mid-1980s,the mid-to-late-1990s,and the late 1990s to 2007.There are vast differences in the initial and ending days at diverse GRs in different areas of the province.At 50% GR,the earliest (last) days occur from mid-March to early April (early to late September) while at 80% GR,the initial (last) days are from late March to early May (early to late October).For the distribution of periods,the periods >8-10 years are relatively stable for the entire province.Based on 1951-2007 period analysis,the region north (south) of the Huaihe River experiences TSDs less (more) than normal days in recent years. 展开更多
关键词 THUNDERSTORM climate tendency wavelet analysis guarantee rate initial and ending days
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Radio-Acoustic Study of Thunderstorms
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作者 Giancarlo T. Tomezzoli 《Journal of Sensor Technology》 2023年第3期51-58,共8页
The observation, in the past, that a thunderstorm perturbed the transmissions of an old vacuum tubes radio with noise discharges in correspondence with lightnings, suggested the possibility of radio-acoustic study of ... The observation, in the past, that a thunderstorm perturbed the transmissions of an old vacuum tubes radio with noise discharges in correspondence with lightnings, suggested the possibility of radio-acoustic study of thunderstorms. The noise discharges appeared to convey not only information about lightnings, but also about any other thunderstorm electromagnetic phenomena generating noise discharges. The low-cost instrumentation involved in the radio-acoustic study, comprised a radio Telefunken mod. T33B, a 15 m long indoor wire antenna, a mobile telephone Samsung Galaxy S20 FE 5G provided with the recorder App Enregistreur vocal, a computer HP Pavillion dv5-1254eg and the s/w audio analyser Audacity. A first thunderstorm on 20 June 2023 and a second thunderstorm on 22 June 2023, both above Munich, were radio-acoustic studied. The second thunderstorm was more active than the first and released much more energy. 展开更多
关键词 thunderstorms Radio-Acoustics Vacuum Tube Radio Noise Discharges
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一次漏报极端雷暴大风特征及原因多源观测资料综合分析 被引量:3
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作者 李国翠 吴翀 +2 位作者 钤伟妙 段宇辉 曹越 《气象科技》 2025年第2期222-234,共13页
2023年7月24日河北中部出现一次雷暴大风强对流天气过程,过程极端性强,6个国家站的极大风速突破历史极值或位居历史前两名,其中元氏最大达30.6 m/s。此过程大尺度天气背景为高空弱西北气流,天气系统不明显,导致中、短期天气预报出现漏... 2023年7月24日河北中部出现一次雷暴大风强对流天气过程,过程极端性强,6个国家站的极大风速突破历史极值或位居历史前两名,其中元氏最大达30.6 m/s。此过程大尺度天气背景为高空弱西北气流,天气系统不明显,导致中、短期天气预报出现漏报。利用ERA5再分析、双偏振天气雷达、风廓线雷达、L波段探空和分钟级地面观测等多源高分辨率观测资料,对此次极端雷暴大风过程的演变特征及其成因进行分析,结果表明:①雷暴大风过程属于高空干冷平流弱强迫型,存在低层暖、高空弱冷的不稳定大气层结,对流有效位能1544.8 J/kg,沙氏指数-4.31℃,850 hPa与500 hPa温度差超30℃,垂直风切变中等略偏弱。②单峰值型和双峰值型前阶段大风具有突发性强、瞬时风速大、持续时间短等特征,对应雷达回波分为风暴单体、弓形回波、阵风锋3类,表现为差分反射率因子(Z _(DR))柱、差分相移率(K _(DP))柱、相关系数(C _(C))小值和17 m/s以上的大风速核、速度模糊和中层径向辐合等特征;地面气象要素表现为中心气压≥1006 hPa的雷暴高压和1 h变温≤-3.5℃的地面冷池,对应气压陡升、气温骤降、零度层高度谷值和弱降水。双峰值型后阶段大风强度弱、影响范围小且持续时间短,不伴有降水或仅有微弱降水,对应弱雷达回波型,是由主体雷达回波后的再生弱回波和冷池密度流共同造成的。③极端大风也与观测站迁站有一定关系。 展开更多
关键词 极端雷暴大风 漏报 弓形回波 阵风锋 Z_(DR)柱
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强对流雷暴和闪电的探测、机理及预报
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作者 郄秀书 刘冬霞 +3 位作者 蒋如斌 郑栋 底绍轩 陈志雄 《气象学报》 北大核心 2025年第3期833-854,共22页
雷暴是产生闪电的强对流天气系统,产生大量闪电的雷暴可导致多种灾害性天气。近10年来,高时\空分辨率闪电探测技术的发展,不仅使雷电的发展传输特征和机理、物理效应等方面取得了突破性进展,而且与双偏振多普勒天气雷达、高分辨率数值... 雷暴是产生闪电的强对流天气系统,产生大量闪电的雷暴可导致多种灾害性天气。近10年来,高时\空分辨率闪电探测技术的发展,不仅使雷电的发展传输特征和机理、物理效应等方面取得了突破性进展,而且与双偏振多普勒天气雷达、高分辨率数值模式结合,提升了对雷暴云动力-微物理-电过程及其相互关系,以及雷暴云电荷结构的科学认识,促进了雷电预报系统和面向数值预报模式的闪电资料同化方案的建立。从4方面对近10年中国在强对流雷暴和闪电探测、机理和预报领域的主要研究进展进行回顾,包括通道可分辨的高精度闪电三维定位技术及应用,不同类型雷暴系统中的闪电活动特征及其与云动力、微物理过程的关系,雷暴云电荷结构的观测和数值模拟,以及闪电预报与面向数值预报模式的闪电资料同化等,并对相关研究的未来发展进行了展望。 展开更多
关键词 高精度闪电定位技术 闪电物理和机制 雷暴电荷结构 闪电预报 雷暴预报的闪电资料同化
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四川复杂地形下雷暴大风客观预报方法研究
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作者 龙柯吉 康岚 +4 位作者 黄晓龙 陈朝平 但玻 周威 张武龙 《气象》 北大核心 2025年第1期57-67,共11页
地形复杂的四川地区,虽然雷暴大风发生频次较低,但造成的影响重大,现有的客观预报产品较少且时间分辨率低,为进一步提升四川复杂地形下雷暴大风预报准确率,综合考虑地形因子、模式物理量因子和时间因子,根据海拔高度将四川分为高海拔区... 地形复杂的四川地区,虽然雷暴大风发生频次较低,但造成的影响重大,现有的客观预报产品较少且时间分辨率低,为进一步提升四川复杂地形下雷暴大风预报准确率,综合考虑地形因子、模式物理量因子和时间因子,根据海拔高度将四川分为高海拔区和低海拔区,利用2018—2021年数据基于随机森林、自适应提升法、极端随机树三种机器学习方法分区构建雷暴大风预报模型,对2022年进行预报,获得逐3 h雷暴大风潜势预报,再利用气候背景将3 h预报时间降尺度到1 h,形成0~12 h逐小时雷暴大风预报,并检验预报效果。结果表明,逐3 h雷暴大风预报以自适应提升法效果最优,长时间检验和个例检验都表明,基于自适应提升法获得的0~12 h逐小时雷暴大风预报产品优于中央气象台产品,TS评分由0.0104提升至0.0595,空报率由0.988下降至0.808,业务应用价值较高。 展开更多
关键词 复杂地形 雷暴大风 机器学习 时间降尺度
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一次暖区对流组织化发展的成因分析
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作者 罗静 郑淋淋 +5 位作者 姚晨 邵立瑛 邱学兴 高磊 朱红芳 祁文 《气象》 北大核心 2025年第9期1072-1087,共16页
2023年5月27日凌晨,安徽南部发生了一次以短时强降水为主的暖区强对流过程,多条南北走向平行排列的β中尺度短对流形成的列车效应造成突发性局地强降水,降水最强时段100 min累计降水量达到123.2 mm。采用安徽省气象台业务运行的快速更... 2023年5月27日凌晨,安徽南部发生了一次以短时强降水为主的暖区强对流过程,多条南北走向平行排列的β中尺度短对流形成的列车效应造成突发性局地强降水,降水最强时段100 min累计降水量达到123.2 mm。采用安徽省气象台业务运行的快速更新同化系统WRF-EnKF对此次过程进行数值模拟。结果表明:大尺度环境场和中尺度对流系统的相互作用导致多条短对流水平尺度的增长、强度的增强。动力作用方面,对流发生后,短对流与低空急流核之间形成γ中尺度气旋性涡旋造成对流东移发展,同时雷暴出流与环境风场形成的地面辐合线导致南侧触发新对流,使短对流不断向南部线性发展;环境条件方面,多个平行排列的低空急流核为对流的发展提供有利的动力和热力条件,对流强烈发展在中高层形成反次级环流,使其南侧的大气不稳定和深层垂直风切变显著增强。对流之间的相互作用造成短对流结构维持。平行排列的对流形成平行排列的雷暴高压,相邻雷暴出流相互作用形成多个平行排列的正负散度对,垂直方向上在相邻对流之间形成多个平行排列的纬向-垂直环流,有利于多条短对流结构的维持和发展。 展开更多
关键词 暖区 低空急流 雷暴出流
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城市化对雷电参数时空分布的影响研究
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作者 余田野 贺姗 +2 位作者 张科杰 成勤 程宸 《热带气象学报》 北大核心 2025年第6期797-807,共11页
开展城区与郊区雷电参数时空分布特征及其差异研究,对深入认识自然环境改变对雷电活动规律产生的影响以及提高城市雷电灾害防御能力具有重要的现实意义。根据湖北省VLF/LF(Very Low Frequency/Low Frequency)三维闪电定位系统2015年1月-... 开展城区与郊区雷电参数时空分布特征及其差异研究,对深入认识自然环境改变对雷电活动规律产生的影响以及提高城市雷电灾害防御能力具有重要的现实意义。根据湖北省VLF/LF(Very Low Frequency/Low Frequency)三维闪电定位系统2015年1月-2022年12月的监测资料,采用DBSCAN(density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise)算法开展了雷暴团的识别;在此基础上,采用数理统计方法,对城区与郊区的闪电频次、极性、电流强度、雷暴团等参数时空分布特征进行了对比研究。结果表明:城区云闪比高于郊区,城区与郊区近8年的闪电密度呈增加趋势,电流强度、雷电日均呈减少趋势,地闪参数受城市化效应的影响更加显著。郊区地闪密度明显高于城区,比城区高14.7%,城区云闪与地闪平均电流强度均大于郊区,地闪活动能够产生更大的电流强度。郊区发生小幅值地闪(I≤20 kA)的概率比城区大6.6%,发生雷电绕击的概率大于城区;城区发生大幅值地闪(I>100 kA)的概率比郊区大0.5%,发生雷电反击的概率大于郊区。城区与郊区雷电活动均以小雷暴为主,平均雷暴团面积分别为77.2 km^(2)、81.7 km^(2),小雷暴发生概率城区比郊区高,大雷暴发生概率郊区比城区高。 展开更多
关键词 城市化 雷电参数 雷暴团 绕击 分布特征
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黑龙江省对流性降水和大风分布特征
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作者 赵柠 周奕含 +1 位作者 周一 吴迎旭 《国土与自然资源研究》 2025年第5期55-58,共4页
本文利用黑龙江省825个国家站和区域气象自动站2017-2022年5~9月的逐日降水资料,2019-2022年5~9月的大风实况数据,采用统计法、分位数法分析近年来黑龙江省短时强降水和雷暴大风的时空分布特征。结果表明,2019年是黑龙江省对流频繁年份... 本文利用黑龙江省825个国家站和区域气象自动站2017-2022年5~9月的逐日降水资料,2019-2022年5~9月的大风实况数据,采用统计法、分位数法分析近年来黑龙江省短时强降水和雷暴大风的时空分布特征。结果表明,2019年是黑龙江省对流频繁年份,不同等级、不同类型对流占比均较大,东北冷涡对黑龙江省的强对流影响比较显著,特别是极端对流;强对流日数和站次的分布会出现不一致性,雷暴大风日数在5月中旬出现峰值,而站次是在6月中旬出现峰值;不同等级强降水的季节变化整体一致,先增加再下降,8月上旬达到最大,但是他们变化的速度刚好相反;雷暴大风6月中旬出现日数最多,而5月中旬出现站次最多。两类强对流均在午后呈明显上升,下午14~17时最强,20时左右开始减弱,凌晨至上午9时对流发生频次最少。强降水在松嫩平原分布最多,大小兴安岭、张广才岭等山区分布最少;而雷暴大风在西北部和东南部的山区最多,平原地带较少。 展开更多
关键词 强降水 雷暴大风 时空分布
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基于时序差分与双重修正的雷暴风速短时预测研究
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作者 陶天友 邓鹏 +1 位作者 王浩 徐帆 《东南大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2025年第5期1399-1405,共7页
为开展雷暴风速的有效预测,研究了时序差分与双重修正联合驱动的风速短时预测方法。首先,对原始实测风速开展差分,将风速的时序差分作为预测对象;其次,通过长短期记忆网络建立风速差分序列的预测模型;然后,考虑预测误差与预测风速的相关... 为开展雷暴风速的有效预测,研究了时序差分与双重修正联合驱动的风速短时预测方法。首先,对原始实测风速开展差分,将风速的时序差分作为预测对象;其次,通过长短期记忆网络建立风速差分序列的预测模型;然后,考虑预测误差与预测风速的相关性,对实时预测的结果进行双重修正;最后获得雷暴风速的最终预测结果。以苏通大桥的实测雷暴风速为背景,对该方法在单步预测和多步预测中的有效性进行了验证。研究结果表明,对原始风速进行差分可考虑风速的非平稳特性,其预测效果优于将风速直接作为输入的情形。双重修正可对初始预测结果进行误差补偿,进而能够提升局部极值和全局风速的预测精度,并在单步预测与多步预测中均表现出较好的预测效果。 展开更多
关键词 雷暴风 实测风速 短时预测 机器学习 双重修正
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