Thunderstorm wind gusts are small in scale,typically occurring within a range of a few kilometers.It is extremely challenging to monitor and forecast thunderstorm wind gusts using only automatic weather stations.There...Thunderstorm wind gusts are small in scale,typically occurring within a range of a few kilometers.It is extremely challenging to monitor and forecast thunderstorm wind gusts using only automatic weather stations.Therefore,it is necessary to establish thunderstorm wind gust identification techniques based on multisource high-resolution observations.This paper introduces a new algorithm,called thunderstorm wind gust identification network(TGNet).It leverages multimodal feature fusion to fuse the temporal and spatial features of thunderstorm wind gust events.The shapelet transform is first used to extract the temporal features of wind speeds from automatic weather stations,which is aimed at distinguishing thunderstorm wind gusts from those caused by synoptic-scale systems or typhoons.Then,the encoder,structured upon the U-shaped network(U-Net)and incorporating recurrent residual convolutional blocks(R2U-Net),is employed to extract the corresponding spatial convective characteristics of satellite,radar,and lightning observations.Finally,by using the multimodal deep fusion module based on multi-head cross-attention,the temporal features of wind speed at each automatic weather station are incorporated into the spatial features to obtain 10-minutely classification of thunderstorm wind gusts.TGNet products have high accuracy,with a critical success index reaching 0.77.Compared with those of U-Net and R2U-Net,the false alarm rate of TGNet products decreases by 31.28%and 24.15%,respectively.The new algorithm provides grid products of thunderstorm wind gusts with a spatial resolution of 0.01°,updated every 10minutes.The results are finer and more accurate,thereby helping to improve the accuracy of operational warnings for thunderstorm wind gusts.展开更多
Thunderstorm detection based on the Atmospheric Electric Field(AEF)has evolved from time-domain models to space-domain models.It is especially important to evaluate and determine the particularly Weather Attribute(WA)...Thunderstorm detection based on the Atmospheric Electric Field(AEF)has evolved from time-domain models to space-domain models.It is especially important to evaluate and determine the particularly Weather Attribute(WA),which is directly related to the detection reliability and authenticity.In this paper,a strategy is proposed to integrate three currently competitive WA's evaluation methods.First,a conventional evaluation method based on AEF statistical indicators is selected.Subsequent evaluation approaches include competing AEF-based predicted value intervals,and AEF classification based on fuzzy c-means.Different AEF attributes contribute to a more accurate AEF classification to different degrees.The resulting dynamic weighting applied to these attributes improves the classification accuracy.Each evaluation method is applied to evaluate the WA of a particular AEF,to obtain the corresponding evaluation score.The integration in the proposed strategy takes the form of a score accumulation.Different cumulative score levels correspond to different final WA results.Thunderstorm imaging is performed to visualize thunderstorm activities using those AEFs already evaluated to exhibit thunderstorm attributes.Empirical results confirm that the proposed strategy effectively and reliably images thunderstorms,with a 100%accuracy of WA evaluation.This is the first study to design an integrated thunderstorm detection strategy from a new perspective of WA evaluation,which provides promising solutions for a more reliable and flexible thunderstorm detection.展开更多
In August 2019,accompanied by an Arctic warming event,elevated thunderstorms crossed over the North Pole(NP)and produced lightning.The northernmost stroke occurred less than 50 km from the NP,marking the closest strok...In August 2019,accompanied by an Arctic warming event,elevated thunderstorms crossed over the North Pole(NP)and produced lightning.The northernmost stroke occurred less than 50 km from the NP,marking the closest stroke to the NP ever recorded.Using ERA5 reanalysis data and satellite observations,we investigated the background and development mechanism of this event.Warm and moist air from low latitudes was transported northward to the vicinity of the North Pole by the 850-h Pa jet,resulting in convergence.Through the combined effects of frontal lifting and the presence of underlying cold air,the warm and moist air was lifted to heights above the melting layer,triggering elevated thunderstorms above the frontal boundary.These findings describe a strong link between warming events and thunderstorms,revealing the formation mechanisms of elevated thunderstorms in the Arctic.In the context of rapid Arctic warming,this study provides preliminary insights into the meteorological conditions conducive to thunderstorm formation in the region.展开更多
This study utilizes data from a 3D lightning location system,polarimetric radar,and current measurements from channels of triggered lightning flashes(TLFs)to analyze the structural characteristics of the parent thunde...This study utilizes data from a 3D lightning location system,polarimetric radar,and current measurements from channels of triggered lightning flashes(TLFs)to analyze the structural characteristics of the parent thunderstorms associated with negative TLFs in South China.The triggered-flash region(TFR)displays distinct stratiform cloud characteristics,including lower radar reflectivity heights and a predominance of ice crystals and dry snow above the 0℃ layer.In contrast,the thunderstorm convection core region(CCR)tends to have more graupel particles in the mixed-phase layers and exhibits an ice-water content peak approximately 3.4 times that of the TFR.The charge regions involved in discharges in TFRs exhibit a dipolar charge structure,with the-5℃ layer roughly dividing the upper positive and lower negative charge regions.Conversely,the CCRs feature a typical tripolar charge structure.The dominant dipole charge structure in the TFR results in an increase in the negative charge field below the negative charge region with height,providing a necessary condition for successfully triggering negative TLFs.Furthermore,the horizontal extent of TLFs is positively correlated with their duration and charge transfer.Regions where TLF channels with larger charge transfers propagate tend to have greater maximum radar reflectivity but lower average radar reflectivity compared to regions with TLFs with smaller charge transfer.展开更多
Changes in the Atmospheric Electric Field Signal(AEFS)are highly correlated with weather changes,especially with thunderstorm activities.However,little attention has been paid to the ambiguous weather information impl...Changes in the Atmospheric Electric Field Signal(AEFS)are highly correlated with weather changes,especially with thunderstorm activities.However,little attention has been paid to the ambiguous weather information implicit in AEFS changes.In this paper,a Fuzzy C-Means(FCM)clustering method is used for the first time to develop an innovative approach to characterize the weather attributes carried by AEFS.First,a time series dataset is created in the time domain using AEFS attributes.The AEFS-based weather is evaluated according to the time-series Membership Degree(MD)changes obtained by inputting this dataset into the FCM.Second,thunderstorm intensities are reflected by the change in distance from a thunderstorm cloud point charge to an AEF apparatus.Thus,a matching relationship is established between the normalized distance and the thunderstorm dominant MD in the space domain.Finally,the rationality and reliability of the proposed method are verified by combining radar charts and expert experience.The results confirm that this method accurately characterizes the weather attributes and changes in the AEFS,and a negative distance-MD correlation is obtained for the first time.The detection of thunderstorm activity by AEF from the perspective of fuzzy set technology provides a meaningful guidance for interpretable thunderstorms.展开更多
Based on the number of asthmatic children in the Children's Hospital of Yulin City,the monitoring data of daily pollen concentration,and routine meteorological and environmental monitoring data of Yulin City from ...Based on the number of asthmatic children in the Children's Hospital of Yulin City,the monitoring data of daily pollen concentration,and routine meteorological and environmental monitoring data of Yulin City from 2020 to 2022,the meteorological and environmental conditions of a thunderstorm asthma event in Yulin City in northern Shaanxi on September 9,2022 were analyzed.The results show that the strong convective weather was accompanied by a strong thunderstorm,lightning,gusts,short-time heavy precipitation and small hail,and the convective activity lasted for nearly 7 h.The short-term abrupt change of allergenic substances such as artemisia pollen caused by lightning,gusts and precipitation,the sudden drop in temperature,the inversion near the surface and the stimulation of cold air were the key meteorological conditions for the subsequent outbreak of asthma.In early September in 2022,the daily average pollen concentration in Yulin City was up to 1067.9 particles/1000 mm^(2),which was 113.3%and 41.2%higher than that of the same period in 2021 and 2020,respectively.The day before the thunderstorm,the pollen concentration soared to 2680 particles/1000 mm^(2),reaching the maximum of the year.The synergistic effect of the thunderstorm event and the sharp increase in pollen concentration on the previous day provided the background of heavy pollen pollution for this outbreak of thunderstorm asthma.O_(3)concentration was consistently high on the day of thunderstorm and the day before,and the peaks of O_(3)and PM 10 concentration appeared subsequently in the afternoon of the day,which became the background of air pollution for the asthma outbreak.展开更多
Based on the radar data and lightning position indicator data of strong thunderstorm weather which happened in Fuxin on July 8,2007,the relationship between the lightning activity and the radar echo was analyzed.The r...Based on the radar data and lightning position indicator data of strong thunderstorm weather which happened in Fuxin on July 8,2007,the relationship between the lightning activity and the radar echo was analyzed.The results showed that Fuxin area located in the cross position of T-shaped trough and was affected by the cold air which continuously glided down.The corresponding warm front on the ground advanced southward and arrived here.It was the weather background of this thunderstorm weather.The position variation of lightning occurrence was closely related to the strong echo movement of squall line,and the velocity echo clearly reflected and predicted the movement tendency of the radar echo.展开更多
The first thunderstorm weather appeared in southern Shenyang on May 2,2010 and did not bring about severe lightning disaster for Shenyang region,but forecast service had poor effect without forecasting thunderstorm we...The first thunderstorm weather appeared in southern Shenyang on May 2,2010 and did not bring about severe lightning disaster for Shenyang region,but forecast service had poor effect without forecasting thunderstorm weather accurately.In our paper,the reasons for missing report of this thunderstorm weather were analyzed,and analysis on thunderstorm potential was carried out by means of mesoscale analysis technique,providing technical index and vantage point for the prediction of thunderstorm potential.The results showed that the reasons for missing report of this weather process were as follows:surface temperature at prophase was constantly lower going against the development of convective weather;the interpreting and analyzing ability of numerical forecast product should be improved;the forecast result of T639 model was better than that of Japanese numerical forecast;the study and application of mesoscale analysis technique should be strengthened,and this service was formally developed after thunderstorm weather on June 1,2010.展开更多
Based in 11 daily weather observation station data in Shanghai from 1971 to 2008,a careful research and analysis on the features of thunderstorms spatial and temporal distribution and thunderstorm movement in Shanghai...Based in 11 daily weather observation station data in Shanghai from 1971 to 2008,a careful research and analysis on the features of thunderstorms spatial and temporal distribution and thunderstorm movement in Shanghai was carried out by using the statistical software of SAS,the method of Mann-Kendall test and wavelets. The results showed that the average annual numbers of thunderstorms days were 26.1,and inter-annual thunderstorm variability was obvious,the annual number of thunderstorm days had a decreasing trend,its value of decreasing days was about-0.418 5 d/10 a. Mann-Kendall test showed that there was an abrupt change in 2000. The seasonal variation of thunderstorm in Shanghai was explicit. The period from March to September was the season when thunderstorm occurred most frequently,about 64.9% of the thunderstorms in a year took place in summer. The results from wavelets analysis showed that the variation cycle period of the annual number of thunderstorms days was about 3,5,12 and 20 years.展开更多
Based on the lightning monitoring data, automatic and routine weather station observation data in spring （March-May） of 2013 of Sichuan Province, the corresponding relationship between the spatial distribution and t...Based on the lightning monitoring data, automatic and routine weather station observation data in spring （March-May） of 2013 of Sichuan Province, the corresponding relationship between the spatial distribution and the different regions, and the characteristics of atmospheric circulation and evolution of influence the sys- tem were analyzed and summarized. The results show that： the lightning and thunderstorm showed great regional differences in the spring of 2013 in Sichuan Province and the thunderstorm activity period was not the same in different areas. Because of the change of atmospheric circulation, the influence system from March to May corresponding to the thunderstorms in Sichuan tended to be volatile, also.展开更多
By dint of natural orthogonal function(EOF) decomposition,correlation and trend analysis methods,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of thunderstorms in recent 46 years in Henan Province were analyzed.T...By dint of natural orthogonal function(EOF) decomposition,correlation and trend analysis methods,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of thunderstorms in recent 46 years in Henan Province were analyzed.The result showed that the thunderstorms in Henan Province decreased gradually from the northwest region to the southeast region and the frequency of thunderstorms in the southeast area was relatively high.The thunderstorm intensity area was in its horizontal distribution.Thunderstorms acted relative actively in 60s and tended to dwindle in the end of 80s.While in recent years,the thunderstorms tended to increase and started act frequently.Since March to August in every year,thunderstorms multiplied in each region and decreased after September.The period between 16:00 to 20:00 was the high peak hours of thunderstorms every year.Thunderstorms distribution in Henan Province had pretty good consistence,increasing and decreasing at the same time.The annual variation of thunderstorms showed an unobvious decreasing tendency.展开更多
Electrification and simple discharge schemes are coupled into a 3D Regional Atmospheric Model System （RAMS） as microphysical parameterizations, in accordance with electrical experiment results. The dynamics, microph...Electrification and simple discharge schemes are coupled into a 3D Regional Atmospheric Model System （RAMS） as microphysical parameterizations, in accordance with electrical experiment results. The dynamics, microphysics, and electrifi- cation components are fully integrated into the RAMS model, and the inductive and non-inductive electrification mechanisms are considered in the charging process. The results indicate that the thunderstorm mainly had a normal tripole charge structure. The simulated charge structure and lightning frequency are basically consistent with observations of the lightning radiation source distribution. The non-inductive charging mechanism contributed to the electrification during the whole lifetime of the thunderstorm, while the inductive electrification mechanism played a significant role in the development period and the mature stage when the electric field reached a large value. The charge structure in the convective region and the rearward region are analyzed, showing that the charge density in the convective region was double that in the rearward region.展开更多
Thunderstorm gusts are a common form of severe convective weather in the warm season in North China,and it is of great importance to correctly forecast them.At present,the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts is mainly b...Thunderstorm gusts are a common form of severe convective weather in the warm season in North China,and it is of great importance to correctly forecast them.At present,the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts is mainly based on traditional subjective methods,which fails to achieve high-resolution and high-frequency gridded forecasts based on multiple observation sources.In this paper,we propose a deep learning method called Thunderstorm Gusts TransU-net(TGTransUnet)to forecast thunderstorm gusts in North China based on multi-source gridded product data from the Institute of Urban Meteorology(IUM)with a lead time of 1 to 6 h.To determine the specific range of thunderstorm gusts,we combine three meteorological variables:radar reflectivity factor,lightning location,and 1-h maximum instantaneous wind speed from automatic weather stations(AWSs),and obtain a reasonable ground truth of thunderstorm gusts.Then,we transform the forecasting problem into an image-to-image problem in deep learning under the TG-TransUnet architecture,which is based on convolutional neural networks and a transformer.The analysis and forecast data of the enriched multi-source gridded comprehensive forecasting system for the period 2021–23 are then used as training,validation,and testing datasets.Finally,the performance of TG-TransUnet is compared with other methods.The results show that TG-TransUnet has the best prediction results at 1–6 h.The IUM is currently using this model to support the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts in North China.展开更多
Three summer thunderstorms in the eastern region of China were analyzed in detail using multiple data, including Doppler radar, lightning location network, TRMM （Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission）, MT- SAT （Multi...Three summer thunderstorms in the eastern region of China were analyzed in detail using multiple data, including Doppler radar, lightning location network, TRMM （Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission）, MT- SAT （Multi-Function Transport Satellite） images, NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） Reanalysis, and radiosonde. Two of the three storms were sprite-producing and the other was non-sprite- producing. The two sprite-producing storms occurred on 1 2 August and 2~28 July 2007, producing 16 and one sprite, respectively. The non-sprite-producing storm occurred on 29-30 July 2007. The major ob- jective of the study was to try to find possible differences between sprite-producing and non-sprite producing storms using the multiple datasets. The results showed that the convection in the 1-2 August storm was the strongest compared with the other storms, and it produced the largest number of sprites. Precipitation ice, cloud ice and cloud water content in the convective regions in the 1-2 August storm were larger than in the other two storms, but the opposite was true in the weak convective regions. The storm microphysical prop- erties along lines through parent CG （cloud-to-ground lightning） locations showed no special characteristics related to sprites. The flash rate evolution in the 1-2 August storm provided additional confirmation that major sprite activity coincides with a rapid decrease in the negative CG flash rate. However, the evolution curve of the CG flash rate was erratic in the sprite-producing storm on 27-28 July, which was significantly different from that in the 1 2 August storm. The average positive CG peak current in sprite-producing storms was larger than that in the non-sprite-producing one.展开更多
The LS-SVM(Least squares support vector machine) method is presented to set up a model to forecast the occurrence of thunderstorms in the Nanjing area by combining NCEP FNL Operational Global Analysis data on 1.0°...The LS-SVM(Least squares support vector machine) method is presented to set up a model to forecast the occurrence of thunderstorms in the Nanjing area by combining NCEP FNL Operational Global Analysis data on 1.0°×1.0° grids and cloud-to-ground lightning data observed with a lightning location system in Jiangsu province during 2007-2008.A dataset with 642 samples,including 195 thunderstorm samples and 447 non-thunderstorm samples,are randomly divided into two groups,one(having 386 samples) for modeling and the rest for independent verification.The predictors are atmospheric instability parameters which can be obtained from the NCEP data and the predictand is the occurrence of thunderstorms observed by the lightning location system.Preliminary applications to the independent samples for a 6-hour forecast of thunderstorm events show that the prediction correction rate of this model is 78.26%,false alarm rate is 21.74%,and forecasting technical score is 0.61,all better than those from either linear regression or artificial neural network.展开更多
Data loss or distortion causes adverse effects on the accuracy and stability of the thunderstorm point charge localization.To solve this problem,we propose a data complementary method based on the atmospheric electric...Data loss or distortion causes adverse effects on the accuracy and stability of the thunderstorm point charge localization.To solve this problem,we propose a data complementary method based on the atmospheric electric field apparatus array group.The electric field component measurement model of the atmospheric electric field apparatus is established,and the orientation parameters of the thunderstorm point charge are defined.Based on the mirror method,the thunderstorm point charge coordinates are obtained by using the potential distribution formulas.To test the validity of the basic algorithm,the electric field component measurement error and the localization accuracy are studied.Besides the azimuth angle and the elevation angle,the localization parameters also include the distance from the apparatus to the thunderstorm cloud.Based on a primary electric field apparatus,we establish the array group of apparatuses.Based on this,the data measured by each apparatus is complementarily processed to regain the thunderstorm point charge position.The results show that,compared with the radar map data,this method can accurately reflect the location of the thunderstorm point charge,and has a better localization effect.Additionally,several observation results during thunderstorm weather have been presented.展开更多
The characteristics of cloud-to-ground(CG) lightning activity with severe thunderstorm wind(STW) in South and North China are analyzed using CG lightning data, radar data, and serious weather reports. The percentage o...The characteristics of cloud-to-ground(CG) lightning activity with severe thunderstorm wind(STW) in South and North China are analyzed using CG lightning data, radar data, and serious weather reports. The percentage of positive CG(PCG) flashes with STW in North China is larger than that in South China. STW takes place during the period when the total CG and PCG density is increasing fastest. STW also occurs close to the high-value center of CG and PCG density. In North China, the CG and PCG density in the grid of STW maximizes approximately 20 minutes after the STW occurs; while in South China, the PCG density and percentage of PCG in the grid of STW maximizes about 10 minutes before the occurrence of STW. The high-value centers of CG density and PCG density in North China move slightly faster than those in South China, which is opposite to the rate of increasing CG activity.展开更多
A thunderstorm tracking algorithm is proposed to nowcast the possibility of lightning activity over an area of concern by using the total lightning data and neighborhood technique.The lightning radiation sources obser...A thunderstorm tracking algorithm is proposed to nowcast the possibility of lightning activity over an area of concern by using the total lightning data and neighborhood technique.The lightning radiation sources observed from the Beijing Lightning Network(BLNET)were used to obtain information about the thunderstorm cells,which are significantly valuable in real-time.The boundaries of thunderstorm cells were obtained through the neighborhood technique.After smoothing,these boundaries were used to track the movement of thunderstorms and then extrapolated to nowcast the lightning approaching in an area of concern.The algorithm can deliver creditable results prior to a thunderstorm arriving at the area of concern,with accuracies of 63%,80%,and 91%for lead times of 30,15,and 5 minutes,respectively.The real-time observations of total lightning appear to be significant for thunderstorm tracking and lightning nowcasting,as total lightning tracking could help to fill the observational gaps in radar reflectivity due to the attenuation by hills or other obstacles.The lightning data used in the algorithm performs well in tracking the active thunderstorm cells associated with lightning activities.展开更多
The Tibetan Plateau, with an average altitude above 4000 m, is the highest and largest plateau in the world. The frequency of thunderstorms in this region is extremely high. Many indices are used in operational foreca...The Tibetan Plateau, with an average altitude above 4000 m, is the highest and largest plateau in the world. The frequency of thunderstorms in this region is extremely high. Many indices are used in operational forecasting to assess the stability of the atmosphere and predict the probability of severe thunderstorm development. One of the disadvantages of many of these indices is that they are mainly based on observations from plains. However, considering the Plateau＇s high elevation, most convective parameters cannot be applied directly, or their application is ineffective. The pre-convective environment on thunderstorm days in this region is investigated based on sounding data obtained throughout a five-year period（2006–10）.Thunderstorms occur over the Tibetan Plateau under conditions that differ strikingly from those in plains. On this basis,stability indices, such as the Showalter index（including SI and SICCL）, and the K index are improved to better assess the thunderstorm environments on the Plateau. Verification parameters, such as the true-skill statistic（TSS） and Heidke skill score（HSS）, are adopted to evaluate the optimal thresholds and relative forecast skill for each modified index. Lastly, the modified indices are verified with a two-year independent dataset（2011–12）, showing satisfactory results for the modified indices. For determining whether or not a thunderstorm day is likely to occur, we recommend the modified SICCLindex.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFC3004104)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342204)+4 种基金the Innovation and Development Program of the China Meteorological Administration(Grant No.CXFZ2024J001)the Open Research Project of the Key Open Laboratory of Hydrology and Meteorology of the China Meteorological Administration(Grant No.23SWQXZ010)the Science and Technology Plan Project of Zhejiang Province(Grant No.2022C03150)the Open Research Fund Project of Anyang National Climate Observatory(Grant No.AYNCOF202401)the Open Bidding for Selecting the Best Candidates Program(Grant No.CMAJBGS202318)。
文摘Thunderstorm wind gusts are small in scale,typically occurring within a range of a few kilometers.It is extremely challenging to monitor and forecast thunderstorm wind gusts using only automatic weather stations.Therefore,it is necessary to establish thunderstorm wind gust identification techniques based on multisource high-resolution observations.This paper introduces a new algorithm,called thunderstorm wind gust identification network(TGNet).It leverages multimodal feature fusion to fuse the temporal and spatial features of thunderstorm wind gust events.The shapelet transform is first used to extract the temporal features of wind speeds from automatic weather stations,which is aimed at distinguishing thunderstorm wind gusts from those caused by synoptic-scale systems or typhoons.Then,the encoder,structured upon the U-shaped network(U-Net)and incorporating recurrent residual convolutional blocks(R2U-Net),is employed to extract the corresponding spatial convective characteristics of satellite,radar,and lightning observations.Finally,by using the multimodal deep fusion module based on multi-head cross-attention,the temporal features of wind speed at each automatic weather station are incorporated into the spatial features to obtain 10-minutely classification of thunderstorm wind gusts.TGNet products have high accuracy,with a critical success index reaching 0.77.Compared with those of U-Net and R2U-Net,the false alarm rate of TGNet products decreases by 31.28%and 24.15%,respectively.The new algorithm provides grid products of thunderstorm wind gusts with a spatial resolution of 0.01°,updated every 10minutes.The results are finer and more accurate,thereby helping to improve the accuracy of operational warnings for thunderstorm wind gusts.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 62171228in part by the National Key R&D Program of China under Grant 2021YFE0105500in part by the Program of China Scholarship Council under Grant 202209040027。
文摘Thunderstorm detection based on the Atmospheric Electric Field(AEF)has evolved from time-domain models to space-domain models.It is especially important to evaluate and determine the particularly Weather Attribute(WA),which is directly related to the detection reliability and authenticity.In this paper,a strategy is proposed to integrate three currently competitive WA's evaluation methods.First,a conventional evaluation method based on AEF statistical indicators is selected.Subsequent evaluation approaches include competing AEF-based predicted value intervals,and AEF classification based on fuzzy c-means.Different AEF attributes contribute to a more accurate AEF classification to different degrees.The resulting dynamic weighting applied to these attributes improves the classification accuracy.Each evaluation method is applied to evaluate the WA of a particular AEF,to obtain the corresponding evaluation score.The integration in the proposed strategy takes the form of a score accumulation.Different cumulative score levels correspond to different final WA results.Thunderstorm imaging is performed to visualize thunderstorm activities using those AEFs already evaluated to exhibit thunderstorm attributes.Empirical results confirm that the proposed strategy effectively and reliably images thunderstorms,with a 100%accuracy of WA evaluation.This is the first study to design an integrated thunderstorm detection strategy from a new perspective of WA evaluation,which provides promising solutions for a more reliable and flexible thunderstorm detection.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC3007703)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41675066,42394122)+1 种基金CAS Project of Stable Support for Youth Team in Basic Research Field(YSRR-018)the Chinese Meridian Project。
文摘In August 2019,accompanied by an Arctic warming event,elevated thunderstorms crossed over the North Pole(NP)and produced lightning.The northernmost stroke occurred less than 50 km from the NP,marking the closest stroke to the NP ever recorded.Using ERA5 reanalysis data and satellite observations,we investigated the background and development mechanism of this event.Warm and moist air from low latitudes was transported northward to the vicinity of the North Pole by the 850-h Pa jet,resulting in convergence.Through the combined effects of frontal lifting and the presence of underlying cold air,the warm and moist air was lifted to heights above the melting layer,triggering elevated thunderstorms above the frontal boundary.These findings describe a strong link between warming events and thunderstorms,revealing the formation mechanisms of elevated thunderstorms in the Arctic.In the context of rapid Arctic warming,this study provides preliminary insights into the meteorological conditions conducive to thunderstorm formation in the region.
基金funded by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342215)Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province(Grant No.SCSF202302)。
文摘This study utilizes data from a 3D lightning location system,polarimetric radar,and current measurements from channels of triggered lightning flashes(TLFs)to analyze the structural characteristics of the parent thunderstorms associated with negative TLFs in South China.The triggered-flash region(TFR)displays distinct stratiform cloud characteristics,including lower radar reflectivity heights and a predominance of ice crystals and dry snow above the 0℃ layer.In contrast,the thunderstorm convection core region(CCR)tends to have more graupel particles in the mixed-phase layers and exhibits an ice-water content peak approximately 3.4 times that of the TFR.The charge regions involved in discharges in TFRs exhibit a dipolar charge structure,with the-5℃ layer roughly dividing the upper positive and lower negative charge regions.Conversely,the CCRs feature a typical tripolar charge structure.The dominant dipole charge structure in the TFR results in an increase in the negative charge field below the negative charge region with height,providing a necessary condition for successfully triggering negative TLFs.Furthermore,the horizontal extent of TLFs is positively correlated with their duration and charge transfer.Regions where TLF channels with larger charge transfers propagate tend to have greater maximum radar reflectivity but lower average radar reflectivity compared to regions with TLFs with smaller charge transfer.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 62171228in part by the National Key R&D Program of China under Grant 2021YFE0105500in part by the Program of China Scholarship Council under Grant 202209040027。
文摘Changes in the Atmospheric Electric Field Signal(AEFS)are highly correlated with weather changes,especially with thunderstorm activities.However,little attention has been paid to the ambiguous weather information implicit in AEFS changes.In this paper,a Fuzzy C-Means(FCM)clustering method is used for the first time to develop an innovative approach to characterize the weather attributes carried by AEFS.First,a time series dataset is created in the time domain using AEFS attributes.The AEFS-based weather is evaluated according to the time-series Membership Degree(MD)changes obtained by inputting this dataset into the FCM.Second,thunderstorm intensities are reflected by the change in distance from a thunderstorm cloud point charge to an AEF apparatus.Thus,a matching relationship is established between the normalized distance and the thunderstorm dominant MD in the space domain.Finally,the rationality and reliability of the proposed method are verified by combining radar charts and expert experience.The results confirm that this method accurately characterizes the weather attributes and changes in the AEFS,and a negative distance-MD correlation is obtained for the first time.The detection of thunderstorm activity by AEF from the perspective of fuzzy set technology provides a meaningful guidance for interpretable thunderstorms.
基金Supported by the People's Government of Yulin City(2023-SF-09)Yulin Meteorological Bureau(2024Y-02)Open Research Fund Project of Key Laboratory of Ecological Environment and Meteorology in the Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateau(2022Y-21).
文摘Based on the number of asthmatic children in the Children's Hospital of Yulin City,the monitoring data of daily pollen concentration,and routine meteorological and environmental monitoring data of Yulin City from 2020 to 2022,the meteorological and environmental conditions of a thunderstorm asthma event in Yulin City in northern Shaanxi on September 9,2022 were analyzed.The results show that the strong convective weather was accompanied by a strong thunderstorm,lightning,gusts,short-time heavy precipitation and small hail,and the convective activity lasted for nearly 7 h.The short-term abrupt change of allergenic substances such as artemisia pollen caused by lightning,gusts and precipitation,the sudden drop in temperature,the inversion near the surface and the stimulation of cold air were the key meteorological conditions for the subsequent outbreak of asthma.In early September in 2022,the daily average pollen concentration in Yulin City was up to 1067.9 particles/1000 mm^(2),which was 113.3%and 41.2%higher than that of the same period in 2021 and 2020,respectively.The day before the thunderstorm,the pollen concentration soared to 2680 particles/1000 mm^(2),reaching the maximum of the year.The synergistic effect of the thunderstorm event and the sharp increase in pollen concentration on the previous day provided the background of heavy pollen pollution for this outbreak of thunderstorm asthma.O_(3)concentration was consistently high on the day of thunderstorm and the day before,and the peaks of O_(3)and PM 10 concentration appeared subsequently in the afternoon of the day,which became the background of air pollution for the asthma outbreak.
基金Supported by The Special Project of Public Welfare Industry Scientific Research(GYHY200806014)Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Project(E30JG0730)
文摘Based on the radar data and lightning position indicator data of strong thunderstorm weather which happened in Fuxin on July 8,2007,the relationship between the lightning activity and the radar echo was analyzed.The results showed that Fuxin area located in the cross position of T-shaped trough and was affected by the cold air which continuously glided down.The corresponding warm front on the ground advanced southward and arrived here.It was the weather background of this thunderstorm weather.The position variation of lightning occurrence was closely related to the strong echo movement of squall line,and the velocity echo clearly reflected and predicted the movement tendency of the radar echo.
文摘The first thunderstorm weather appeared in southern Shenyang on May 2,2010 and did not bring about severe lightning disaster for Shenyang region,but forecast service had poor effect without forecasting thunderstorm weather accurately.In our paper,the reasons for missing report of this thunderstorm weather were analyzed,and analysis on thunderstorm potential was carried out by means of mesoscale analysis technique,providing technical index and vantage point for the prediction of thunderstorm potential.The results showed that the reasons for missing report of this weather process were as follows:surface temperature at prophase was constantly lower going against the development of convective weather;the interpreting and analyzing ability of numerical forecast product should be improved;the forecast result of T639 model was better than that of Japanese numerical forecast;the study and application of mesoscale analysis technique should be strengthened,and this service was formally developed after thunderstorm weather on June 1,2010.
基金Supported by Scientific Research Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry(GYHY 200806014)
文摘Based in 11 daily weather observation station data in Shanghai from 1971 to 2008,a careful research and analysis on the features of thunderstorms spatial and temporal distribution and thunderstorm movement in Shanghai was carried out by using the statistical software of SAS,the method of Mann-Kendall test and wavelets. The results showed that the average annual numbers of thunderstorms days were 26.1,and inter-annual thunderstorm variability was obvious,the annual number of thunderstorm days had a decreasing trend,its value of decreasing days was about-0.418 5 d/10 a. Mann-Kendall test showed that there was an abrupt change in 2000. The seasonal variation of thunderstorm in Shanghai was explicit. The period from March to September was the season when thunderstorm occurred most frequently,about 64.9% of the thunderstorms in a year took place in summer. The results from wavelets analysis showed that the variation cycle period of the annual number of thunderstorms days was about 3,5,12 and 20 years.
文摘Based on the lightning monitoring data, automatic and routine weather station observation data in spring （March-May） of 2013 of Sichuan Province, the corresponding relationship between the spatial distribution and the different regions, and the characteristics of atmospheric circulation and evolution of influence the sys- tem were analyzed and summarized. The results show that： the lightning and thunderstorm showed great regional differences in the spring of 2013 in Sichuan Province and the thunderstorm activity period was not the same in different areas. Because of the change of atmospheric circulation, the influence system from March to May corresponding to the thunderstorms in Sichuan tended to be volatile, also.
基金Supported by Scientific Research Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (GYHY 200806014)Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Program (E30JG0730)
文摘By dint of natural orthogonal function(EOF) decomposition,correlation and trend analysis methods,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of thunderstorms in recent 46 years in Henan Province were analyzed.The result showed that the thunderstorms in Henan Province decreased gradually from the northwest region to the southeast region and the frequency of thunderstorms in the southeast area was relatively high.The thunderstorm intensity area was in its horizontal distribution.Thunderstorms acted relative actively in 60s and tended to dwindle in the end of 80s.While in recent years,the thunderstorms tended to increase and started act frequently.Since March to August in every year,thunderstorms multiplied in each region and decreased after September.The period between 16:00 to 20:00 was the high peak hours of thunderstorms every year.Thunderstorms distribution in Henan Province had pretty good consistence,increasing and decreasing at the same time.The annual variation of thunderstorms showed an unobvious decreasing tendency.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41175002, 40930949)National Key Basic Research Program of China (2014CB441401)
文摘Electrification and simple discharge schemes are coupled into a 3D Regional Atmospheric Model System （RAMS） as microphysical parameterizations, in accordance with electrical experiment results. The dynamics, microphysics, and electrifi- cation components are fully integrated into the RAMS model, and the inductive and non-inductive electrification mechanisms are considered in the charging process. The results indicate that the thunderstorm mainly had a normal tripole charge structure. The simulated charge structure and lightning frequency are basically consistent with observations of the lightning radiation source distribution. The non-inductive charging mechanism contributed to the electrification during the whole lifetime of the thunderstorm, while the inductive electrification mechanism played a significant role in the development period and the mature stage when the electric field reached a large value. The charge structure in the convective region and the rearward region are analyzed, showing that the charge density in the convective region was double that in the rearward region.
基金supported in part by the Beijing Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.8222051)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFC3004103)+2 种基金the National Natural Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42275003 and 42275012)the China Meteorological Administration Key Innovation Team(Grant Nos.CMA2022ZD04 and CMA2022ZD07)the Beijing Science and Technology Program(Grant No.Z221100005222012).
文摘Thunderstorm gusts are a common form of severe convective weather in the warm season in North China,and it is of great importance to correctly forecast them.At present,the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts is mainly based on traditional subjective methods,which fails to achieve high-resolution and high-frequency gridded forecasts based on multiple observation sources.In this paper,we propose a deep learning method called Thunderstorm Gusts TransU-net(TGTransUnet)to forecast thunderstorm gusts in North China based on multi-source gridded product data from the Institute of Urban Meteorology(IUM)with a lead time of 1 to 6 h.To determine the specific range of thunderstorm gusts,we combine three meteorological variables:radar reflectivity factor,lightning location,and 1-h maximum instantaneous wind speed from automatic weather stations(AWSs),and obtain a reasonable ground truth of thunderstorm gusts.Then,we transform the forecasting problem into an image-to-image problem in deep learning under the TG-TransUnet architecture,which is based on convolutional neural networks and a transformer.The analysis and forecast data of the enriched multi-source gridded comprehensive forecasting system for the period 2021–23 are then used as training,validation,and testing datasets.Finally,the performance of TG-TransUnet is compared with other methods.The results show that TG-TransUnet has the best prediction results at 1–6 h.The IUM is currently using this model to support the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts in North China.
基金supported jointly by Strategic Priority Research Program on Space Science(Grant No.XDA04072400)Project Supported by the Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories,Youth Innovation Promotion Association,CAS,National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,Grant No.2010CB428602)+2 种基金the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry(GYHY201006005-07)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41374153,40930949,40804028)Beijing Natural Science Foundation
文摘Three summer thunderstorms in the eastern region of China were analyzed in detail using multiple data, including Doppler radar, lightning location network, TRMM （Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission）, MT- SAT （Multi-Function Transport Satellite） images, NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） Reanalysis, and radiosonde. Two of the three storms were sprite-producing and the other was non-sprite- producing. The two sprite-producing storms occurred on 1 2 August and 2~28 July 2007, producing 16 and one sprite, respectively. The non-sprite-producing storm occurred on 29-30 July 2007. The major ob- jective of the study was to try to find possible differences between sprite-producing and non-sprite producing storms using the multiple datasets. The results showed that the convection in the 1-2 August storm was the strongest compared with the other storms, and it produced the largest number of sprites. Precipitation ice, cloud ice and cloud water content in the convective regions in the 1-2 August storm were larger than in the other two storms, but the opposite was true in the weak convective regions. The storm microphysical prop- erties along lines through parent CG （cloud-to-ground lightning） locations showed no special characteristics related to sprites. The flash rate evolution in the 1-2 August storm provided additional confirmation that major sprite activity coincides with a rapid decrease in the negative CG flash rate. However, the evolution curve of the CG flash rate was erratic in the sprite-producing storm on 27-28 July, which was significantly different from that in the 1 2 August storm. The average positive CG peak current in sprite-producing storms was larger than that in the non-sprite-producing one.
基金China Social Welfare Research Project (GYHY200806014)
文摘The LS-SVM(Least squares support vector machine) method is presented to set up a model to forecast the occurrence of thunderstorms in the Nanjing area by combining NCEP FNL Operational Global Analysis data on 1.0°×1.0° grids and cloud-to-ground lightning data observed with a lightning location system in Jiangsu province during 2007-2008.A dataset with 642 samples,including 195 thunderstorm samples and 447 non-thunderstorm samples,are randomly divided into two groups,one(having 386 samples) for modeling and the rest for independent verification.The predictors are atmospheric instability parameters which can be obtained from the NCEP data and the predictand is the occurrence of thunderstorms observed by the lightning location system.Preliminary applications to the independent samples for a 6-hour forecast of thunderstorm events show that the prediction correction rate of this model is 78.26%,false alarm rate is 21.74%,and forecasting technical score is 0.61,all better than those from either linear regression or artificial neural network.
基金This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2021YFE0105500)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61671248)+2 种基金the Key Research and Development Plan of Jiangsu Province,China(Grant No.BE2018719)Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.SJCX19_0309)the Advantage Discipline Information and Communication Engineering of Jiangsu Province,China.
文摘Data loss or distortion causes adverse effects on the accuracy and stability of the thunderstorm point charge localization.To solve this problem,we propose a data complementary method based on the atmospheric electric field apparatus array group.The electric field component measurement model of the atmospheric electric field apparatus is established,and the orientation parameters of the thunderstorm point charge are defined.Based on the mirror method,the thunderstorm point charge coordinates are obtained by using the potential distribution formulas.To test the validity of the basic algorithm,the electric field component measurement error and the localization accuracy are studied.Besides the azimuth angle and the elevation angle,the localization parameters also include the distance from the apparatus to the thunderstorm cloud.Based on a primary electric field apparatus,we establish the array group of apparatuses.Based on this,the data measured by each apparatus is complementarily processed to regain the thunderstorm point charge position.The results show that,compared with the radar map data,this method can accurately reflect the location of the thunderstorm point charge,and has a better localization effect.Additionally,several observation results during thunderstorm weather have been presented.
基金supported by the China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. GYHY201406002)the Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. 2013CB430100)
文摘The characteristics of cloud-to-ground(CG) lightning activity with severe thunderstorm wind(STW) in South and North China are analyzed using CG lightning data, radar data, and serious weather reports. The percentage of positive CG(PCG) flashes with STW in North China is larger than that in South China. STW takes place during the period when the total CG and PCG density is increasing fastest. STW also occurs close to the high-value center of CG and PCG density. In North China, the CG and PCG density in the grid of STW maximizes approximately 20 minutes after the STW occurs; while in South China, the PCG density and percentage of PCG in the grid of STW maximizes about 10 minutes before the occurrence of STW. The high-value centers of CG density and PCG density in North China move slightly faster than those in South China, which is opposite to the rate of increasing CG activity.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41630425,41761144074 and 41875007)supported the researchthe Chinese Academy of Sciences for the CAS-PIFI fellowship grant。
文摘A thunderstorm tracking algorithm is proposed to nowcast the possibility of lightning activity over an area of concern by using the total lightning data and neighborhood technique.The lightning radiation sources observed from the Beijing Lightning Network(BLNET)were used to obtain information about the thunderstorm cells,which are significantly valuable in real-time.The boundaries of thunderstorm cells were obtained through the neighborhood technique.After smoothing,these boundaries were used to track the movement of thunderstorms and then extrapolated to nowcast the lightning approaching in an area of concern.The algorithm can deliver creditable results prior to a thunderstorm arriving at the area of concern,with accuracies of 63%,80%,and 91%for lead times of 30,15,and 5 minutes,respectively.The real-time observations of total lightning appear to be significant for thunderstorm tracking and lightning nowcasting,as total lightning tracking could help to fill the observational gaps in radar reflectivity due to the attenuation by hills or other obstacles.The lightning data used in the algorithm performs well in tracking the active thunderstorm cells associated with lightning activities.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41275128, 41375063 and 41206163)the Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology Foundation
文摘The Tibetan Plateau, with an average altitude above 4000 m, is the highest and largest plateau in the world. The frequency of thunderstorms in this region is extremely high. Many indices are used in operational forecasting to assess the stability of the atmosphere and predict the probability of severe thunderstorm development. One of the disadvantages of many of these indices is that they are mainly based on observations from plains. However, considering the Plateau＇s high elevation, most convective parameters cannot be applied directly, or their application is ineffective. The pre-convective environment on thunderstorm days in this region is investigated based on sounding data obtained throughout a five-year period（2006–10）.Thunderstorms occur over the Tibetan Plateau under conditions that differ strikingly from those in plains. On this basis,stability indices, such as the Showalter index（including SI and SICCL）, and the K index are improved to better assess the thunderstorm environments on the Plateau. Verification parameters, such as the true-skill statistic（TSS） and Heidke skill score（HSS）, are adopted to evaluate the optimal thresholds and relative forecast skill for each modified index. Lastly, the modified indices are verified with a two-year independent dataset（2011–12）, showing satisfactory results for the modified indices. For determining whether or not a thunderstorm day is likely to occur, we recommend the modified SICCLindex.
