Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the...Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the sustainable development and national food security to study the spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land in Northeast China under future climate scenarios. In this study, based on data of land use, natural environment and social-economy, dynamics of land system（DLS） model was used to to simulate the spatial distribution and changing trends of cultivated land in the typical areas of reclamation and returning cultivated land to forest or pastures in Northeast China during 2010-2030 under land use planning scenario and representative concentration pathways（RCPs） scenarios quantitatively.The results showed that the area of cultivated land had an overall decreasing trend under the land use planning scenario, but the area of upland field increased slightly from 2000 to 2010 and then declined greatly, while the area of paddy field continuously declined from 2000 to 2030. Under the Asia-Pacific Integrated model（AIM）scenario, the total area of cultivated land had a tendency to increase considerably,with the upland field expanding more obviously and the paddy field declining slightly.In addition, the cultivated land showed a greater decreasing trend under the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact（MESSAGE） scenario compared to the land use planning scenario. Moreover, analysis on the conversion between different land use types indicated that the reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures was likely to continue under future scenarios, but the frequency of occurrence could decrease as the time goes by. The conclusions can provide significant decision-making information for the rational agricultural planning and cultivated land protection in Northeast China to adapt to the climate change.展开更多
Using the theory and method of the ecological footprint, and combining the changes of regional land use, resource environment, population, society and economy, this paper calculated the ecological footprint, ecologica...Using the theory and method of the ecological footprint, and combining the changes of regional land use, resource environment, population, society and economy, this paper calculated the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological surplus/loss in 1986-2002 on the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi Province. What is more, this paper has put forward the concept of ecological pressure index, set up ecological pressure index models, and ecological security grading systems, and the prediction models of different ecological footprints, ecological carrying capacity, ecological surplus and ecological safety change, and also has assessed the ecological footprint demands of 10,000 yuan GDE The results of this study are as follows： （1） the ecological carrying capacity in northern Shaanxi shows a decreasing trend, the difference of reducing range is the fastest; （2） the ecological footprint appears an increasing trend; （3） ecological pressure index rose to 0.91 from 0.44 during 1986-2002 on the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi with an increase of 47%; and （4） the ecological security in the study area is in a critical state, and the ecological oressure index has been increasing rapidlv.展开更多
It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes in the fields of both climate change and land use change. Relationships between cropland changes and driving forces...It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes in the fields of both climate change and land use change. Relationships between cropland changes and driving forces were qualitatively studied in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes are needed to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes at quantitative aspects, including model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. Progress of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions was introduced. Then we discussed four defects in the assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. In addition, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Moreover, we concluded a clue about quantitative approach to assess the contributions from synthetically aspect to specific driving forces. Finally, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.展开更多
Human activities and climate changes are deemed to be two primary driving factors influencing the changes of hydrological processes, and quantitatively separating their influences on runoff changes will be of great si...Human activities and climate changes are deemed to be two primary driving factors influencing the changes of hydrological processes, and quantitatively separating their influences on runoff changes will be of great significance to regional water resources planning and management. In this study, the impact of climate changes and human activities was initially qualitatively distinguished through a coupled water and energy budgets analysis, and then this effect was further separated by means of a quantitative estimation based on hydrological sensitivity analysis. The results show that: 1) precipitation, wind speed, potential evapotranspiration and runoff have a significantly decreasing trend, while temperature has a remarkably increasing tendency in the Weihe River Basin, China; 2) the major driving factor on runoff decrease in the 1970 s and 1990 s in the basin is climate changes compared with that in the baseline 1960 s, while that in the 1980 s and 2000 s is human activities. Compared with the results based on Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC) model, the contributions calculated in this study have certain reliability. The results are of great significance to local water resources planning and management.展开更多
Relative roles of climate change and human activities in desertification are the hotspot of research on desertification dynamic and its driving mechanism.To overcome the shortcomings of existing studies,this paper sel...Relative roles of climate change and human activities in desertification are the hotspot of research on desertification dynamic and its driving mechanism.To overcome the shortcomings of existing studies,this paper selected net primary productivity （NPP） as an indicator to analyze desertification dynamic and its impact factors.In addition,the change trends of actual NPP,potential NPP and HNPP （human appropriation of NPP,the difference between potential NPP and actual NPP） were used to analyze the desertification dynamic and calculate the relative roles of climate change,human activities and a combination of the two factors in desertification.In this study,the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS）-Normalised Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） and meteorological data were utilized to drive the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach （CASA） model to calculate the actual NPP from 2001 to 2010 in the Heihe River Basin.Potential NPP was estimated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model.Results showed that 61％ of the whole basin area underwent land degradation,of which 90.5％ was caused by human activities,8.6％ by climate change,and 0.9％ by a combination of the two factors.On the contrary,1.5％ of desertification reversion area was caused by human activities and 90.7％ by climate change,the rest 7.8％ by a combination of the two factors.Moreover,it was demonstrated that 95.9％ of the total actual NPP decrease was induced by human activities,while 69.3％ of the total actual NPP increase was caused by climate change.The results revealed that climate change dominated desertification reversion,while human activities dominated desertification expansion.Moreover,the relative roles of both climate change and human activities in desertification possessed great spatial heterogeneity.Additionally,ecological protection policies should be enhanced in the Heihe River Basin to prevent desertification expansion under the condition of climate change.展开更多
The quantitative effect of climate change on fragile regions has been a hot topic in the field of responses to climate change. Previous studies have qualitatively documented the impacts of climate change on boundary s...The quantitative effect of climate change on fragile regions has been a hot topic in the field of responses to climate change. Previous studies have qualitatively documented the impacts of climate change on boundary shifts in the farming-pastoral ecotone （FPE）; however, the quantitative methods for detecting climate contributions remain relatively limited. Based on long-term data of meteorological stations and interpretations of land use since 1970, climate and land use boundaries of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s were delineated. To detect climate contributions to the FPE boundary shifts, we developed two quantitative methods to explore the spatial-temporal pattern of climate and land use boundary at the east-west （or south-north） （FishNet method） and transect directions （Digital Shoreline Analysis System, DSAS method）. The results indicated that significant differences were exhibited in climate boundaries, land use boundaries, as well as climate contributions in different regions during different periods. The northwest FPE had smaller variations, while the northeast FPE had greater shifts. In the northwest part of the southeast fringe of the Greater Hinggan Mountains and the Inner Mongolian Plateau, the shifts of climate boundaries were significantly related to the land use boundaries. The climate contributions at an east-west direction ranged from 10.7% to 44.4%, and those at a south-north direction varied from 4.7% to 55.9%. The majority of the results from the DSAS were consistent with those from the FishNet. The DSAS method is more accurate and suitable for precise detection at a small scale, whereas the FishNet method is simple to conduct statistical analysis rapidly and directly at a large scale. Our research will be helpful to adapt to climate change, to develop the productive potential, as well as to protect the environment of the FPE in northern China.展开更多
Ayu （Plecoglossus altivelis） fish, which are an amphidromous species distributed in East Asia, live in brackish water （BW） during their larval stage and in fresh water （FW） during their adult stage. In this stud...Ayu （Plecoglossus altivelis） fish, which are an amphidromous species distributed in East Asia, live in brackish water （BW） during their larval stage and in fresh water （FW） during their adult stage. In this study, we found that FW-acclimated ayu larvae exhibited a slower growth ratio compared with that of BW-acclimated larvae. However, the mechanism underlying FW acclimation on growth suppression is poorly known. We employed transcriptome analysis to investigate the differential gene expression of FW acclimation by RNA sequencing. We identified 158 upregulated and 139 downregulated transcripts in FW-acclimated ayu larvae compared with that in BW-acclimated larvae. As determined by Gene Ontology annotation and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway mapping, functional annotation of the genes covered diverse biological functions and processes, and included neuroendo- crinology, osmotic regulation, energy metabolism, and the cytoskeleton. Transcriptional expression of several differentially expressed genes in response to FW acclimation was further confirmed by real-time quantitative PCR. In accordance with transcriptome analysis, iodothyronine deiodinase （ID）, pro-opiom- elanocortin （POMC）, betaine-homocysteine S-meth- yltransferase 1 （BHMT）, fructose-bisphosphate aldolase B （aldolase B）, tyrosine aminotransferase （TAT）, and Na＋-K＋ ATPase （NKA） were upregulated after FW acclimation. Furthermore, the mRNA expressions of b-type natriurefic peptide （BNP） and transgelin were downregulated after FW acclimation. Our data indicate that FW acclimation reduced the growth rate of ayu larvae, which might result from the expression alteration of genes related to endocrine hormones, energy metabolism, and direct osmoregulation.展开更多
The degree of spatial similarity plays an important role in map generalization, yet there has been no quantitative research into it. To fill this gap, this study first defines map scale change and spatial similarity d...The degree of spatial similarity plays an important role in map generalization, yet there has been no quantitative research into it. To fill this gap, this study first defines map scale change and spatial similarity degree/relation in multi-scale map spaces and then proposes a model for calculating the degree of spatial similarity between a point cloud at one scale and its gener- alized counterpart at another scale. After validation, the new model features 16 points with map scale change as the x coordinate and the degree of spatial similarity as the y coordinate. Finally, using an application for curve fitting, the model achieves an empirical formula that can calculate the degree of spatial similarity using map scale change as the sole independent variable, and vice versa. This formula can be used to automate algorithms for point feature generalization and to determine when to terminate them during the generalization.展开更多
To study the quantitative relationship between surface sedimentary diatoms and water depth,67 surface samples were collected for diatom analysis on eight profiles with water depth variation from the muddy intertidal z...To study the quantitative relationship between surface sedimentary diatoms and water depth,67 surface samples were collected for diatom analysis on eight profiles with water depth variation from the muddy intertidal zone to the shallow sea area in North-Central Bohai Bay,China.The results showed that the distribution of diatoms changed significantly in response to the change in water depth.Furthermore,the quantitative relationship between the distribution of dominant diatom species,their assemblages,and the water depth was established.The water depth optima for seven dominant species such as Cyclotella striata/stylorum,Paralia sulcata,and Coscinodiscus perforatus and the water depth indication range of seven diatom assemblages were obtained in the study area above the water depth(elevation)of-10 m.The quantitative relationship between surface sedimentary diatoms and water depth provides a proxy index for diatom-paleo-water depth reconstruction in the strata in Bohai Bay,China.展开更多
A fundamental objective within ecotoxicology lies in understanding and predicting effects of contaminants. This ob- jective is made more challenging when global climate change is considered as an environmental stress ...A fundamental objective within ecotoxicology lies in understanding and predicting effects of contaminants. This ob- jective is made more challenging when global climate change is considered as an environmental stress that co-occurs with con- taminant exposure. In this multi-stressor context, evolutionary processes are particularly important. In this paper, we consider several non-＂omic＂ approaches wherein evolutionary responses to stress have been studied and discuss those amenable to a mul- tiple stressor context. Specifically, we discuss common-garden designs, artificial and quasi-natural selection, and the estimation of adaptive potential using quantitative genetics as methods for studying evolutionary responses to contaminants and climate change in the absence of expensive molecular tools. While all approaches shed light on potential evolutionary impacts of stressor exposure, they also have limitations. These include logistical constraints, difficulty extrapolating to real systems, and responses tied strongly to specific taxa, populations, and/or testing conditions. The most effective way to lessen these inherent limitations is likely through inclusion of complementary physiological and molecular tools, when available. We believe that an evolutionary context to the study of contaminants and global climate change is a high priority in ecotoxicology and we outline methods that can be implemented by almost any researcher but will also provide valuable insights [Current Zoology 61 （4）： 690-701, 2015].展开更多
The current standard for measuring tumor response using X-ray, CT and MRI is based on the response evaluation criterion in solid tumors (RECIST) which, while providing simplifications over previous (WHO) 2-D methods, ...The current standard for measuring tumor response using X-ray, CT and MRI is based on the response evaluation criterion in solid tumors (RECIST) which, while providing simplifications over previous (WHO) 2-D methods, stipulate four response categories: CR (complete response), PR (partial response), PD (progressive disease), SD (stable disease) based purely on percentage changes without consideration of any measurement uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a statistical procedure for tumor response assessment based on uncertainty measures of radiologist’s measurement data. We present several variance estimation methods using time series methods and empirical Bayes methods when a small number of serial observations are available on each member of a group of subjects. We use a publically available database which contains a set of over 100 CT scan images on 23 patients with annotated RECIST measurements by two radiologist readers. We show that despite of bias in each individual reader’s measurements, statistical decisions on tumor change can be made on each individual subject. The consistency of the two readers can be established based on the intra-reader change assessments. Our proposal compares favorably with the RECIST standard protocol, raising the hope that, statistically sound decision on change analysis can be made in future based on careful variability and measurement uncertainty analysis.展开更多
Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems,e.g.the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation,wher...Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems,e.g.the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation,whereas in the Tibetan Plateau,the vegetation productivity increased,owing to the improved thermal resource.Climate change led to reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff.The public needs for energy were changed because of climate change,e.g.the shorter heating period in winter.Climate change profoundly influenced human health,pathophoresis and major projects by increasing extreme events,including frequency and magnitude,and causing more serious water shortage.Under the background of climate change,although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period,more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity.Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industries through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources,but also climate change mitigation measures,such as carbon tax,tariff and trading,had extensive and profound influences on the socioeconomic system.Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences.The impact had its pros and cons,while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages.Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change,we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change.First,scientifically dealing with climate change will need to seek advantages while avoiding the disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve the orderly adaptation to climate change,which is characterized with"Overall best,long-term benefit."Second,quantitative adaptation should be given more attention,e.g.proposing operational schemes and predictable goals and using uncertainty analysis on adaptation measures.Third,more active coping strategy should be adopted to enhance China's future comprehensive competitiveness.The strategies include but are not limited to gradually adjusting the industrial structure,intensifying the research and development(R&D)of emission reduction technology and actively responding to the influence of carbon tax,tariff and trading on socioeconomic development in China.展开更多
The warming-driven increase of the vegetation season length impacts both net productivity and phenology of plants, changing an annual carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems. To evaluate this influence, tree growth alo...The warming-driven increase of the vegetation season length impacts both net productivity and phenology of plants, changing an annual carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems. To evaluate this influence, tree growth along the temperature gradients can be investigated on various organization levels, beginning from detailed climatic records in xylem cells’ number and morphometric parameters. In this study, the Borus Ridge of the Western Sayan Mountains(South Siberia) was considered as a forest area under rapid climate change caused by massive Sayano-Shushenskoe reservoir. Several parameters of the xylem anatomical structure in Siberian spruce(Picea obovata Ledeb.)were derived from normalized tracheidograms of cell radial diameter and cell wall thickness and analyzed during 50 years across elevational gradient(at 520,960, and 1320 m a.s.l.). On the regional scale, the main warming by 0.42°C per decade occurs during cold period(November–March). Construction of the reservoir accelerated local warming substantially since 1980, when abrupt shift of the cold season temperature by 2.6°C occurred. It led to the vegetation season beginning 3-6 days earlier and ending 4-10 day later with more stable summer heat supply. Two spatial patterns were found in climatic response of maximal cell wall thickness:(1)temperature has maximal impact during 21-day period, and its seasonality shifts with elevation in tune with temperature gradient;(2) response to the date of temperature passing +9.5°C threshold is observed at two higher sites. Climate change yielded significantly bigger early wood spruce tracheids at all sites, but its impact on cell wall deposition process had elevational gradient: maximal wall thickness increased by 7.9% at the treeline, by 18.2% mid-range,and decreased by 4.9% at the lower boundary of spruce growth;normalized total cell wall area increased by 6.2%-6.8% at two higher sites but remained stable at the lowest one. We believe that these patterns are caused by two mechanisms of spruce secondary growth cessation: "emergency"induced by temperature drop versus "regular" one in warmer conditions. Therefore, autumn lengthening of growth season stimulated wood matter accumulation in tracheid walls mainly in cold environment,increasing role of boreal and mountain forests in carbon cycle.展开更多
Recognition method of traffic flow change point was put forward based on traffic flow theory and the statistical change point analysis of multiple linear regressions. The method was calibrated and tested with the fiel...Recognition method of traffic flow change point was put forward based on traffic flow theory and the statistical change point analysis of multiple linear regressions. The method was calibrated and tested with the field data of Liantong Road of Zibo city to verify the validity and the feasibility of the theory. The results show that change point method of multiple linear regression can make out the rule of quantitative changes in traffic flow more accurately than ordinary methods. So, the change point method can be applied to traffic information management system more effectively.展开更多
Recently,the quantitative rescattering model(QRS)for nonsequential double ionization(NSDI)is modified by taking into account the potential change(PC)due to the presence of electric field at the time of recollision.Usi...Recently,the quantitative rescattering model(QRS)for nonsequential double ionization(NSDI)is modified by taking into account the potential change(PC)due to the presence of electric field at the time of recollision.Using the improved QRS model,we simulate the longitudinal momentum distributions of doubly charged ions He2+by projecting the correlated two-electron momentum distributions for NSDI of He onto the main diagonal.The obtained results are compared directly with the experimental data at different intensities.It is found that when the PC is considered,the width of momentum distributions reduces and the agreement between theory and experiment is improved.展开更多
基金Supported by the Major Research Project of National Natural Science Foundation Committee(91325302)China Postdoctoral Foundation(2014M560110)Hebei Social Science Foundation(HB15GL087)~~
文摘Northeast China as one of important agricultural production bases is an area under reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures. Therefore, it is of great practical significance in guaranteeing the sustainable development and national food security to study the spatial and temporal variation of cultivated land in Northeast China under future climate scenarios. In this study, based on data of land use, natural environment and social-economy, dynamics of land system（DLS） model was used to to simulate the spatial distribution and changing trends of cultivated land in the typical areas of reclamation and returning cultivated land to forest or pastures in Northeast China during 2010-2030 under land use planning scenario and representative concentration pathways（RCPs） scenarios quantitatively.The results showed that the area of cultivated land had an overall decreasing trend under the land use planning scenario, but the area of upland field increased slightly from 2000 to 2010 and then declined greatly, while the area of paddy field continuously declined from 2000 to 2030. Under the Asia-Pacific Integrated model（AIM）scenario, the total area of cultivated land had a tendency to increase considerably,with the upland field expanding more obviously and the paddy field declining slightly.In addition, the cultivated land showed a greater decreasing trend under the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact（MESSAGE） scenario compared to the land use planning scenario. Moreover, analysis on the conversion between different land use types indicated that the reclamation and returning cultivated land to forests or pastures was likely to continue under future scenarios, but the frequency of occurrence could decrease as the time goes by. The conclusions can provide significant decision-making information for the rational agricultural planning and cultivated land protection in Northeast China to adapt to the climate change.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40371003 Ministry of Education of China, No.01158 Master Research Project of Shaanxi Normal University
文摘Using the theory and method of the ecological footprint, and combining the changes of regional land use, resource environment, population, society and economy, this paper calculated the ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and ecological surplus/loss in 1986-2002 on the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi Province. What is more, this paper has put forward the concept of ecological pressure index, set up ecological pressure index models, and ecological security grading systems, and the prediction models of different ecological footprints, ecological carrying capacity, ecological surplus and ecological safety change, and also has assessed the ecological footprint demands of 10,000 yuan GDE The results of this study are as follows： （1） the ecological carrying capacity in northern Shaanxi shows a decreasing trend, the difference of reducing range is the fastest; （2） the ecological footprint appears an increasing trend; （3） ecological pressure index rose to 0.91 from 0.44 during 1986-2002 on the Loess Plateau of northern Shaanxi with an increase of 47%; and （4） the ecological security in the study area is in a critical state, and the ecological oressure index has been increasing rapidlv.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41401113,No.41371002,No.41471091The Science and Technology Strategic Pilot of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.XDA05090310The Key Project of Physical Geography of Hebei Province
文摘It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes in the fields of both climate change and land use change. Relationships between cropland changes and driving forces were qualitatively studied in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes are needed to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes at quantitative aspects, including model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. Progress of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions was introduced. Then we discussed four defects in the assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. In addition, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Moreover, we concluded a clue about quantitative approach to assess the contributions from synthetically aspect to specific driving forces. Finally, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51190093,51179149,51179149,51309098)National Basic Research Program of China(No.2011CB403306)+2 种基金Non-profit Industry Financial Program of Ministry of Water Resources(No.201301039)Program for New Century Excellent Talents in Ministry of Education(No.NCET-10-0933)Key Innovation Group of Science and Technology of Shaanxi Province(No.2012KCT-10)
文摘Human activities and climate changes are deemed to be two primary driving factors influencing the changes of hydrological processes, and quantitatively separating their influences on runoff changes will be of great significance to regional water resources planning and management. In this study, the impact of climate changes and human activities was initially qualitatively distinguished through a coupled water and energy budgets analysis, and then this effect was further separated by means of a quantitative estimation based on hydrological sensitivity analysis. The results show that: 1) precipitation, wind speed, potential evapotranspiration and runoff have a significantly decreasing trend, while temperature has a remarkably increasing tendency in the Weihe River Basin, China; 2) the major driving factor on runoff decrease in the 1970 s and 1990 s in the basin is climate changes compared with that in the baseline 1960 s, while that in the 1980 s and 2000 s is human activities. Compared with the results based on Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC) model, the contributions calculated in this study have certain reliability. The results are of great significance to local water resources planning and management.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB950702)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(2007AA10Z231)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(40871012,J1103512,J1210026)the Asia-Pacific Network(ARCP-2012-SP25-Li)the Australian Agency for International Development(64828)
文摘Relative roles of climate change and human activities in desertification are the hotspot of research on desertification dynamic and its driving mechanism.To overcome the shortcomings of existing studies,this paper selected net primary productivity （NPP） as an indicator to analyze desertification dynamic and its impact factors.In addition,the change trends of actual NPP,potential NPP and HNPP （human appropriation of NPP,the difference between potential NPP and actual NPP） were used to analyze the desertification dynamic and calculate the relative roles of climate change,human activities and a combination of the two factors in desertification.In this study,the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS）-Normalised Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） and meteorological data were utilized to drive the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach （CASA） model to calculate the actual NPP from 2001 to 2010 in the Heihe River Basin.Potential NPP was estimated using the Thornthwaite Memorial model.Results showed that 61％ of the whole basin area underwent land degradation,of which 90.5％ was caused by human activities,8.6％ by climate change,and 0.9％ by a combination of the two factors.On the contrary,1.5％ of desertification reversion area was caused by human activities and 90.7％ by climate change,the rest 7.8％ by a combination of the two factors.Moreover,it was demonstrated that 95.9％ of the total actual NPP decrease was induced by human activities,while 69.3％ of the total actual NPP increase was caused by climate change.The results revealed that climate change dominated desertification reversion,while human activities dominated desertification expansion.Moreover,the relative roles of both climate change and human activities in desertification possessed great spatial heterogeneity.Additionally,ecological protection policies should be enhanced in the Heihe River Basin to prevent desertification expansion under the condition of climate change.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41401113, No.41371002 Foundation of Excellent Young Talents of IGSNRR, CAS, No.2016RC201+2 种基金 The Open Fund of State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, No.OFSLRSS201622 The Key Project of Physical Geography of Hebei Province China Scholarship Council
文摘The quantitative effect of climate change on fragile regions has been a hot topic in the field of responses to climate change. Previous studies have qualitatively documented the impacts of climate change on boundary shifts in the farming-pastoral ecotone （FPE）; however, the quantitative methods for detecting climate contributions remain relatively limited. Based on long-term data of meteorological stations and interpretations of land use since 1970, climate and land use boundaries of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s were delineated. To detect climate contributions to the FPE boundary shifts, we developed two quantitative methods to explore the spatial-temporal pattern of climate and land use boundary at the east-west （or south-north） （FishNet method） and transect directions （Digital Shoreline Analysis System, DSAS method）. The results indicated that significant differences were exhibited in climate boundaries, land use boundaries, as well as climate contributions in different regions during different periods. The northwest FPE had smaller variations, while the northeast FPE had greater shifts. In the northwest part of the southeast fringe of the Greater Hinggan Mountains and the Inner Mongolian Plateau, the shifts of climate boundaries were significantly related to the land use boundaries. The climate contributions at an east-west direction ranged from 10.7% to 44.4%, and those at a south-north direction varied from 4.7% to 55.9%. The majority of the results from the DSAS were consistent with those from the FishNet. The DSAS method is more accurate and suitable for precise detection at a small scale, whereas the FishNet method is simple to conduct statistical analysis rapidly and directly at a large scale. Our research will be helpful to adapt to climate change, to develop the productive potential, as well as to protect the environment of the FPE in northern China.
基金Foundation items： The project was supported by the Program for the National Natural Science Foundation of China （31201970） and the KC Wong Magna Fund in Ningbo University
文摘Ayu （Plecoglossus altivelis） fish, which are an amphidromous species distributed in East Asia, live in brackish water （BW） during their larval stage and in fresh water （FW） during their adult stage. In this study, we found that FW-acclimated ayu larvae exhibited a slower growth ratio compared with that of BW-acclimated larvae. However, the mechanism underlying FW acclimation on growth suppression is poorly known. We employed transcriptome analysis to investigate the differential gene expression of FW acclimation by RNA sequencing. We identified 158 upregulated and 139 downregulated transcripts in FW-acclimated ayu larvae compared with that in BW-acclimated larvae. As determined by Gene Ontology annotation and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway mapping, functional annotation of the genes covered diverse biological functions and processes, and included neuroendo- crinology, osmotic regulation, energy metabolism, and the cytoskeleton. Transcriptional expression of several differentially expressed genes in response to FW acclimation was further confirmed by real-time quantitative PCR. In accordance with transcriptome analysis, iodothyronine deiodinase （ID）, pro-opiom- elanocortin （POMC）, betaine-homocysteine S-meth- yltransferase 1 （BHMT）, fructose-bisphosphate aldolase B （aldolase B）, tyrosine aminotransferase （TAT）, and Na＋-K＋ ATPase （NKA） were upregulated after FW acclimation. Furthermore, the mRNA expressions of b-type natriurefic peptide （BNP） and transgelin were downregulated after FW acclimation. Our data indicate that FW acclimation reduced the growth rate of ayu larvae, which might result from the expression alteration of genes related to endocrine hormones, energy metabolism, and direct osmoregulation.
基金funded by the Natural Science Foundation Committee,China(41364001,41371435)
文摘The degree of spatial similarity plays an important role in map generalization, yet there has been no quantitative research into it. To fill this gap, this study first defines map scale change and spatial similarity degree/relation in multi-scale map spaces and then proposes a model for calculating the degree of spatial similarity between a point cloud at one scale and its gener- alized counterpart at another scale. After validation, the new model features 16 points with map scale change as the x coordinate and the degree of spatial similarity as the y coordinate. Finally, using an application for curve fitting, the model achieves an empirical formula that can calculate the degree of spatial similarity using map scale change as the sole independent variable, and vice versa. This formula can be used to automate algorithms for point feature generalization and to determine when to terminate them during the generalization.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Youth Fund(41806109)the project of the China Geological Survey(DD20189506)。
文摘To study the quantitative relationship between surface sedimentary diatoms and water depth,67 surface samples were collected for diatom analysis on eight profiles with water depth variation from the muddy intertidal zone to the shallow sea area in North-Central Bohai Bay,China.The results showed that the distribution of diatoms changed significantly in response to the change in water depth.Furthermore,the quantitative relationship between the distribution of dominant diatom species,their assemblages,and the water depth was established.The water depth optima for seven dominant species such as Cyclotella striata/stylorum,Paralia sulcata,and Coscinodiscus perforatus and the water depth indication range of seven diatom assemblages were obtained in the study area above the water depth(elevation)of-10 m.The quantitative relationship between surface sedimentary diatoms and water depth provides a proxy index for diatom-paleo-water depth reconstruction in the strata in Bohai Bay,China.
文摘A fundamental objective within ecotoxicology lies in understanding and predicting effects of contaminants. This ob- jective is made more challenging when global climate change is considered as an environmental stress that co-occurs with con- taminant exposure. In this multi-stressor context, evolutionary processes are particularly important. In this paper, we consider several non-＂omic＂ approaches wherein evolutionary responses to stress have been studied and discuss those amenable to a mul- tiple stressor context. Specifically, we discuss common-garden designs, artificial and quasi-natural selection, and the estimation of adaptive potential using quantitative genetics as methods for studying evolutionary responses to contaminants and climate change in the absence of expensive molecular tools. While all approaches shed light on potential evolutionary impacts of stressor exposure, they also have limitations. These include logistical constraints, difficulty extrapolating to real systems, and responses tied strongly to specific taxa, populations, and/or testing conditions. The most effective way to lessen these inherent limitations is likely through inclusion of complementary physiological and molecular tools, when available. We believe that an evolutionary context to the study of contaminants and global climate change is a high priority in ecotoxicology and we outline methods that can be implemented by almost any researcher but will also provide valuable insights [Current Zoology 61 （4）： 690-701, 2015].
文摘The current standard for measuring tumor response using X-ray, CT and MRI is based on the response evaluation criterion in solid tumors (RECIST) which, while providing simplifications over previous (WHO) 2-D methods, stipulate four response categories: CR (complete response), PR (partial response), PD (progressive disease), SD (stable disease) based purely on percentage changes without consideration of any measurement uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a statistical procedure for tumor response assessment based on uncertainty measures of radiologist’s measurement data. We present several variance estimation methods using time series methods and empirical Bayes methods when a small number of serial observations are available on each member of a group of subjects. We use a publically available database which contains a set of over 100 CT scan images on 23 patients with annotated RECIST measurements by two radiologist readers. We show that despite of bias in each individual reader’s measurements, statistical decisions on tumor change can be made on each individual subject. The consistency of the two readers can be established based on the intra-reader change assessments. Our proposal compares favorably with the RECIST standard protocol, raising the hope that, statistically sound decision on change analysis can be made in future based on careful variability and measurement uncertainty analysis.
基金supported by National Science and Technology Support Program of China "Research on Assessment Technology of Impact and Risk of Climate Change in Key Fields and ItsApplication"[grant number 2012BAC19B00]National Key Scientific Research Project "Impact and Adaptive Strategy of Social and Economic System to Climate Change"[grant number2012CB955700]+1 种基金Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences "Environmental Pattern Change and Impact in Past One Hundred Years"[grant numberXDA05090307]"Impact of International Trade Policy and Emissions Reduction Policy to China"[Grant numberXDA05150200]
文摘Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems,e.g.the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation,whereas in the Tibetan Plateau,the vegetation productivity increased,owing to the improved thermal resource.Climate change led to reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff.The public needs for energy were changed because of climate change,e.g.the shorter heating period in winter.Climate change profoundly influenced human health,pathophoresis and major projects by increasing extreme events,including frequency and magnitude,and causing more serious water shortage.Under the background of climate change,although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period,more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity.Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industries through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources,but also climate change mitigation measures,such as carbon tax,tariff and trading,had extensive and profound influences on the socioeconomic system.Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences.The impact had its pros and cons,while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages.Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change,we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change.First,scientifically dealing with climate change will need to seek advantages while avoiding the disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve the orderly adaptation to climate change,which is characterized with"Overall best,long-term benefit."Second,quantitative adaptation should be given more attention,e.g.proposing operational schemes and predictable goals and using uncertainty analysis on adaptation measures.Third,more active coping strategy should be adopted to enhance China's future comprehensive competitiveness.The strategies include but are not limited to gradually adjusting the industrial structure,intensifying the research and development(R&D)of emission reduction technology and actively responding to the influence of carbon tax,tariff and trading on socioeconomic development in China.
基金funded by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (Project No. 17-04-00315, data aquisition and wood anatomy analysis)Russian Science Foundation (Project No 19-18-00145, analysis of climate change and its impact)
文摘The warming-driven increase of the vegetation season length impacts both net productivity and phenology of plants, changing an annual carbon cycle of terrestrial ecosystems. To evaluate this influence, tree growth along the temperature gradients can be investigated on various organization levels, beginning from detailed climatic records in xylem cells’ number and morphometric parameters. In this study, the Borus Ridge of the Western Sayan Mountains(South Siberia) was considered as a forest area under rapid climate change caused by massive Sayano-Shushenskoe reservoir. Several parameters of the xylem anatomical structure in Siberian spruce(Picea obovata Ledeb.)were derived from normalized tracheidograms of cell radial diameter and cell wall thickness and analyzed during 50 years across elevational gradient(at 520,960, and 1320 m a.s.l.). On the regional scale, the main warming by 0.42°C per decade occurs during cold period(November–March). Construction of the reservoir accelerated local warming substantially since 1980, when abrupt shift of the cold season temperature by 2.6°C occurred. It led to the vegetation season beginning 3-6 days earlier and ending 4-10 day later with more stable summer heat supply. Two spatial patterns were found in climatic response of maximal cell wall thickness:(1)temperature has maximal impact during 21-day period, and its seasonality shifts with elevation in tune with temperature gradient;(2) response to the date of temperature passing +9.5°C threshold is observed at two higher sites. Climate change yielded significantly bigger early wood spruce tracheids at all sites, but its impact on cell wall deposition process had elevational gradient: maximal wall thickness increased by 7.9% at the treeline, by 18.2% mid-range,and decreased by 4.9% at the lower boundary of spruce growth;normalized total cell wall area increased by 6.2%-6.8% at two higher sites but remained stable at the lowest one. We believe that these patterns are caused by two mechanisms of spruce secondary growth cessation: "emergency"induced by temperature drop versus "regular" one in warmer conditions. Therefore, autumn lengthening of growth season stimulated wood matter accumulation in tracheid walls mainly in cold environment,increasing role of boreal and mountain forests in carbon cycle.
基金National Natural Science Foundations of China(No. 61074140,No. 60974094)Young Teacher Development Support Project of Shandong University of Technology,China
文摘Recognition method of traffic flow change point was put forward based on traffic flow theory and the statistical change point analysis of multiple linear regressions. The method was calibrated and tested with the field data of Liantong Road of Zibo city to verify the validity and the feasibility of the theory. The results show that change point method of multiple linear regression can make out the rule of quantitative changes in traffic flow more accurately than ordinary methods. So, the change point method can be applied to traffic information management system more effectively.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11274219)the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province of China(Grant No.180917124960522)the Program for Promotion of Science at Universities in Guangdong Province of China(Grant No.2018KTSCX062)。
文摘Recently,the quantitative rescattering model(QRS)for nonsequential double ionization(NSDI)is modified by taking into account the potential change(PC)due to the presence of electric field at the time of recollision.Using the improved QRS model,we simulate the longitudinal momentum distributions of doubly charged ions He2+by projecting the correlated two-electron momentum distributions for NSDI of He onto the main diagonal.The obtained results are compared directly with the experimental data at different intensities.It is found that when the PC is considered,the width of momentum distributions reduces and the agreement between theory and experiment is improved.
