In order to solve the so-called ＂bull-eye＂ problem caused by using a simple bilinear interpolation as an observational mapping operator in the cost function in the multigrid three-dimensional variational （3DVAR） d...In order to solve the so-called ＂bull-eye＂ problem caused by using a simple bilinear interpolation as an observational mapping operator in the cost function in the multigrid three-dimensional variational （3DVAR） data assimilation scheme, a smoothing term, equivalent to a penalty term, is introduced into the cost function to serve as a means of troubleshooting. A theoretical analysis is first performed to figure out what on earth results in the issue of ＂bull-eye＂, and then the meaning of such smoothing term is elucidated and the uniqueness of solution of the multigrid 3DVAR with the smoothing term added is discussed through the theoretical deduction for one-dimensional （1D） case, and two idealized data assimilation experiments （one- and two-dimensional （2D） cases）. By exploring the relationship between the smoothing term and the recursive filter theoretically and practically, it is revealed why satisfied analysis results can be achieved by using such proposed solution for the issue of the multigrid 3DVAR.展开更多
This work addresses the problem of estimating the states of nonlinear dynamic systems with sparse observations.We present a hybrid three-dimensional variation（3DVar） and particle piltering（PF） method,which combine...This work addresses the problem of estimating the states of nonlinear dynamic systems with sparse observations.We present a hybrid three-dimensional variation（3DVar） and particle piltering（PF） method,which combines the advantages of 3DVar and particle-based filters.By minimizing the cost function,this approach will produce a better proposal distribution of the state.Afterwards the stochastic resampling step in standard PF can be avoided through a deterministic scheme.The simulation results show that the performance of the new method is superior to the traditional ensemble Kalman filtering（EnKF） and the standard PF,especially in highly nonlinear systems.展开更多
In order to improve the efficiency of the Ocean Variational Assimilation System （OVALS）, which has been widely used in various applications, an improved OVALS （OVALS2） is developed based on the recursive filter ...In order to improve the efficiency of the Ocean Variational Assimilation System （OVALS）, which has been widely used in various applications, an improved OVALS （OVALS2） is developed based on the recursive filter （RF） algorithm. The first advantage of OVALS2 is that memory storage can be substantially reduced in practice because it implicitly computes the background error covariance matrix; the second advantage is that there is no inversion of the background error covariance by preconditioning the control variable. For comparing the effectiveness between OVALS2 and OVALS, a set of experiments was implemented by assimilating expendable bathythermograph （XBT） and ARGO data into the Tropical Pacific circulation model. The results show that the efficiency of OVALS2 is much higher than that of OVALS. The computational time and the computer storage in the assimilation process were reduced by 83% and 77%, respectively. Additionally, the corresponding results produced by the RF are almost as good as those obtained by OVALS. These results prove that OVALS2 is suitable for operational numerical oceanic forecasting.展开更多
Oceanic dissolved oxygen(DO)concentration is crucial for assessing the status of marine ecosystems.Against the backdrop of global warming,DO shows a general decrease,posing a threat to the health of marine ecosystems....Oceanic dissolved oxygen(DO)concentration is crucial for assessing the status of marine ecosystems.Against the backdrop of global warming,DO shows a general decrease,posing a threat to the health of marine ecosystems.Therefore,there is an urgent need to develop advanced tools to characterize the spatio-temporal variations of three-dimensional(3D)DO.To address this challenge,this study introduces the Light Gradient Boosting Machine(Light-GBM),combining satellite remote sensing and reanalysis data with Biogeochemical Argo data to accurately reconstruct the 3D DO structure in the Mediterranean Sea from 2010 to 2022.Various environmental parameters are incorporated as inputs,including spatiotemporal features,meteorological characteristics,and ocean color properties.The LightGBM model demonstrates excellent performance on the testing dataset with R^(2) of 0.958.The modeled DO agrees better with in-situ measurements than products from numerical models.Using the Shapley Additive exPlanations method,the contributions of input features are assessed.Sea surface temperatures provide a correlation with DO at the sea surface,while spatial coordinates supplement the view of the ocean interior.Based on the reconstructed 3D DO structure,we identify an oxygen minimum zone in the western Mediterranean that expands continuously,reaching depths of approximately 300–800 m.The western Mediterranean exhibits a significant declining trend.This study enhances marine environmental evidence by proposing a precise and cost-effective approach for reconstructing 3D DO,thereby offering insights into the dynamics of DO variations under changing climatic conditions.展开更多
Satellite altimetry missions at high latitude have opened new avenues for understanding the changes occurring over the ice-covered region.By incorporating Arctic satellite remote sensing data-including sea surface tem...Satellite altimetry missions at high latitude have opened new avenues for understanding the changes occurring over the ice-covered region.By incorporating Arctic satellite remote sensing data-including sea surface temperature(SST),sea surface height anomaly(SSHA),and sea surface salinity(SSS).This study employs a variational method to reconstruct the three-dimensional thermohaline structure of the Arctic Ocean.Compared to the Regional Arctic Reanalysis(RARE),the reconstruction well captures both the horizontal and vertical temperature and salinity structures in the Arctic.It demonstrates superior skill over RARE,when compared with Argo profiles and Ice-Tethered Profiler(ITP)observations.The reconstruction is particularly effective in ice-covered regions,where it more accurately captures the transition from Pacific water to Atlantic water compared to RARE.These findings underscore the potential of applying Arctic satellite data to reconstruct vertical thermohaline structures in the Arctic,particularly in areas due to lack of the subsurface observation reanalysis data exhibit significant biases.As Arctic satellite observations continue to advance,the applications of this method are becoming increasingly promising,which is useful for monitoring the ice-covered region environment and can be applied to oceanographic research.展开更多
A large number of observational analyses have shown that lightning data can be used to indicate areas of deep convection. It is important to assimilate observed lightning data into numerical models, so that more small...A large number of observational analyses have shown that lightning data can be used to indicate areas of deep convection. It is important to assimilate observed lightning data into numerical models, so that more small-scale information can be incorporated to improve the quality of the initial condition and the subsequent forecasts. In this study, the empirical relationship between flash rate, water vapor mixing ratio, and graupel mixing ratio was used to adjust the model relative humidity, which was then assimilated by using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting model in cycling mode at 10-min intervals. To find the appropriate assimilation time-window length that yielded significant improvement in both the initial conditions and subsequent forecasts, four experiments with different assimilation time-window lengths were conducted for a squall line case that occurred on 10 July 2007 in North China. It was found that 60 min was the appropriate assimilation time-window length for this case, and longer assimilation window length was unnecessary since no further improvement was present. Forecasts of 1-h accumulated precipitation during the assimilation period and the subsequent 3-h accumulated precipitation were significantly improved compared with the control experiment without lightning data assimilation. The simulated reflectivity was optimal after 30 min of the forecast, it remained optimal during the following 42 min, and the positive effect from lightning data assimilation began to diminish after 72 min of the forecast. Overall,the improvement from lightning data assimilation can be maintained for about 3 h.展开更多
Cirrus clouds play a crucial role in the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system.We investigated the spatiotemporal variations of cirrus over the South China Sea(SCS)using satellite data(MOD08,MYD08,CALIPSO)and ...Cirrus clouds play a crucial role in the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system.We investigated the spatiotemporal variations of cirrus over the South China Sea(SCS)using satellite data(MOD08,MYD08,CALIPSO)and reanalysis data(MERRA-2)from March 2007 to February 2015(eight years).The horizontal distribution reveals lower cirrus fraction values in the northern SCS and higher values in the southern region,with minima observed in March and April and maxima sequentially occurring in August(northern SCS,NSCS),September(middle SCS,MSCS),and December(southern SCS,SSCS).Vertically,the cirrus fraction peaks in summer and reaches its lowest levels in spring.Opaque cirrus dominates during summer in the NSCS and MSCS,comprising 53.6%and 55.9%,respectively,while the SSCS exhibits a higher frequency of opaque cirrus relative to other cloud types.Subvisible cirrus clouds have the lowest frequency year-round,whereas thin cirrus is most prominent in winter in the NSCS(46.3%)and in spring in the MSCS(45.3%).A case study from September 2021 further explores the influence of ice crystal habits on brightness temperature(BT)over the SCS.Simulations utilizing five ice crystal shapes from the ARTS DDA(Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator Discrete Dipole Approximation)database and the RTTOV 12.4 radiative transfer model reveal that the 8-column-aggregate shape best represents BT in the NSCS and SSCS,while the large-block-aggregate shape performs better in the SSCS.展开更多
Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disorder characterized by the progressive degeneration of upper and lower motor neurons in the brainstem and spinal cord,leading to muscle weakness,para...Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disorder characterized by the progressive degeneration of upper and lower motor neurons in the brainstem and spinal cord,leading to muscle weakness,paralysis,and respiratory failure (Morgan and Orrell,2016).展开更多
The three-dimensional structure and the seasonal variation of the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation （NPMOC） are analyzed based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation data and Argo profiling float data....The three-dimensional structure and the seasonal variation of the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation （NPMOC） are analyzed based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation data and Argo profiling float data. The NPMOC displays a multi-cell structure with four cells in the North Pacific altogether. The TC and the STC are a strong clockwise meridional cell in the low latitude ocean and a weaker clockwise meridional cell between 7°N and 18°N, respectively, while the DTC and the subpolar cell are a weaker anticlockwise meridional cell between 3°N and 15°N and a weakest anticlockwise meridional cell between 35°N and 50°N, respectively. The DTC, the TC and the STC are all of very strong seasonal variations. As to the DTC, the southward transport is strongest in fall and weakest in spring. For the TC, the northward transport is strongest in winter and weakest in spring, while the southward transport is strongest in fall and weakest in spring, which is associated with the strong southward fiow of the DTC in fall. As the STC, the northward transport is strongest in winter and weakest in summer, while the southward transport is strongest in summer and weakest in spring. This seasonal difference may be associated with the DTC. The zonal wind stress and the east-west slope of sea level play important roles in the seasonal variations of the TC, the STC and the DTC.展开更多
As in-situ observations are sparse,targeted observations of a specific mesoscale eddy are rare.Therefore,it is difficult to study the three-dimensional structure of moving mesoscale eddies.From April to September 2014...As in-situ observations are sparse,targeted observations of a specific mesoscale eddy are rare.Therefore,it is difficult to study the three-dimensional structure of moving mesoscale eddies.From April to September 2014,an anticyclonic eddy located at 135°E-155°E,26°N-42°N was observed using 17 rapidsampling Argo floats,and the spatiotemporal variations in the three-dimensional structure were studied.The results are as follows:(1)the eddy was identified and tracked using satellite altimeter data.It had a lifetime of 269 days and an average radius of 91.5 km.The lifetime of the eddy can be divided into three phases,i.e.,the initiation,maturity,and termination phases.The depth of its influence reached 1000 m;(2)the Argo profiles were divided into seven periods(approximately 20 days in each)for composite analysis,and the composite Argo profiles and CARS2009(CSIRO Atlas of Regional Seas)climatology data were merged following the data-interpolating variational analysis(DIVA)method to reconstruct the three-dimensional structure.The temperature and salinity anomaly cores of the anticyclonic mesoscale eddy are located from 400 to 600 m.From 800 to 900 m,there is an area of low salinity at the center of the eddy.A high concentration anomaly of dissolved oxygen was located at approximately 250 m;(3)to better understand the features of the eddy and its interaction with the surroundings,we calculated the anomalous velocity of the geostrophic flow and the heat,salt,dissolved oxygen transport anomaly,and discussed the eddy's origin and its adjustments to topography.The maximum heat,salt,and oxygen transport caused by eddy were 9.37×10^11 W,3.08×10^3 kg/s,and 2.70×10^2 kg/s,which all occurred during the termination phase.This study highlights the applicability of using Argo floats to understand the three-dimensional structure thermohaline features of eddies in the North Pacific.展开更多
In this paper,a scheme of dual-Doppler radar wind analysis based on a three-dimensional variational method is proposed and performed in two steps.First,the horizontal wind field is simultaneously recovered through min...In this paper,a scheme of dual-Doppler radar wind analysis based on a three-dimensional variational method is proposed and performed in two steps.First,the horizontal wind field is simultaneously recovered through minimizing a cost function defined as a radial observation term with the standard conjugate gradient method,avoiding a weighting parameter specification step.Compared with conventional dual-Doppler wind synthesis approaches,this variational method minimizes errors caused by interpolation from radar observation to analysis grid in the iterative solution process,which is one of the main sources of errors.Then,through the accelerated Liebmann method,the vertical velocity is further reestimated as an extra step by solving the Poisson equation with impermeable conditions imposed at the ground and near the tropopause.The Poisson equation defined by the second derivative of the vertical velocity is derived from the mass continuity equation.Compared with the method proposed by O’Brien,this method is less sensitive to the uncertainty of the boundary conditions and has better stability and reliability.Furthermore,the method proposed in this paper is applied to Doppler radar observation of a squall line process.It is shown that the retrieved vertical wind profile agrees well with the vertical profile obtained with the velocity–azimuth display(VAD)method,and the retrieved radial velocity as well as the analyzed positive and negative velocity centers and horizontal wind shear of the squall line are in accord with radar observations.There is a good correspondence between the divergence field of the derived wind field and the vertical velocity.And,the horizontal and vertical circulations within and around the squall line,as well as strong updrafts,the associated downdrafts,and associated rear inflow of the bow echo,are analyzed well.It is worth mentioning that the variational method in this paper can be applied to simultaneously synthesize the three-dimensional wind field from multiple-Doppler radar observations.展开更多
In the framework of upper bound theorem of limit analysis, the progressive collapse of shallow rectangular tunnels with double-layer rock mass has been theoretically analyzed based on the three-dimensional (3D) veloci...In the framework of upper bound theorem of limit analysis, the progressive collapse of shallow rectangular tunnels with double-layer rock mass has been theoretically analyzed based on the three-dimensional (3D) velocity discontinuity surfaces. According to the virtual work principle, the difference theorem and the variation method, the collapse surface of double-layer rock mass is determined based on the Hoek-Brown failure criterion. The formula can be degenerated to a single-layer rock collapsing problem when the rock mass is homogeneous. To estimate the validity of the result, the numerical simulation software PLAXIS 3D is used to simulate the collapse of shallow tunnels with double-layer rock mass, and the comparative analysis shows that numerical results are in good agreement with upper-bound solutions. According to the results of parametric analysis, the potential range of collapse of a double-layer rock mass above a shallow cavity decreases with a decrease in A1/A2,σci1/σci2 and σtm1/σtm2 and an increase in B1/B2,γ1/γ2. The range will decrease with a decrease in support pressure q and increase with a decrease in surface overload σs. Therefore, reinforced supporting is beneficial to improve the stability of the cavity during actual construction.展开更多
A tolerance modeling method of geometric variations within three-dimensional(3D) tolerance domain is proposed.According to the classification method of feature variations and classes of invariance or symmetry in the n...A tolerance modeling method of geometric variations within three-dimensional(3D) tolerance domain is proposed.According to the classification method of feature variations and classes of invariance or symmetry in the new generation Geometrical Product Specifications(GPS) system,the proposed method is based on the Small Displacement Torsor(SDT) concept,and SDT is used to represent the geometric deviations between the nominal feature and the fitting feature. Furthermore,the variation zones of several kinds complex or irregular geometric features are constructed,and the corresponding tolerance modeling methods are discussed respectively. Finally,an example is presented to verify the efficiency of the presented method for modeling 3D dimensional and geometrical tolerances.The proposed modeling method based on the complete mathematical foundation conforms with the design philosophy and principle of the new generation GPS standards system.展开更多
Three-dimensional models, consisting of the flame kernel formation model, flame kernel development model and natural gas single step reaction model, are used to analyze the contribution of cyclic equivalence ratio var...Three-dimensional models, consisting of the flame kernel formation model, flame kernel development model and natural gas single step reaction model, are used to analyze the contribution of cyclic equivalence ratio variations to cyclic variations in the compressed natural gas （CNG） lean burn spark ignition engine. Computational results including the contributions of equivalence ratio cyclic variations to each combustion stage and effects of engine speed to the extent of combustion variations are discussed. It is concluded that the equivalence ratio variations affect mostly the main stage of combustion and hardly influence initial kernel development stage.展开更多
The scientific design and preliminary results of the data assimilation component of the Global-Regional Prediction and Assimilation System (GRAPES) recently developed in China Meteorological Administration (CMA) are p...The scientific design and preliminary results of the data assimilation component of the Global-Regional Prediction and Assimilation System (GRAPES) recently developed in China Meteorological Administration (CMA) are presented in this paper. This is a three-dimensional variational (3DVar) assimilation system set up on global and regional grid meshes favorable for direct assimilation of the space-based remote sensing data and matching the frame work of the prediction model GRAPES. The state variables are assumed to decompose balanced and unbalanced components. By introducing a simple transformation from the state variables to the control variables with a recursive or spectral filter, the convergence rate of iteration for minimization of the cost function in 3DVar is greatly accelerated. The definition of dynamical balance depends on the characteristic scale of the circulation considered. The ratio of the balanced to the unbalanced parts is controlled by the prescribed statistics of background errors. Idealized trials produce the same results as the analytic solution. The results of real data case studies show the capability of the system to improve analysis compared to the traditional schemes. Finally, further development of the system is discussed.展开更多
The dynamical constrains in three-dimensional variational data assimilation are discussed when considering the impact of stream divergence and convergence on the pressure and wind fields. For the analysis of severe tr...The dynamical constrains in three-dimensional variational data assimilation are discussed when considering the impact of stream divergence and convergence on the pressure and wind fields. For the analysis of severe tropical cyclone, frontal structures, and other rapidly changing structures, the geostrophic balance and linear balance cannot properly represent the relationship between wind and pressure fields. However, the nonlinear balance incremental equation takes into account the information of flow-dependent background, and makes response to the flow-dependent background covariance in the 3D-Var system. Results indicate that the application of the nonlinear balance equation to 3D-Var system improves the quality of severe tropical cyclone assimilation system, which has some positive effects on intensity prediction of tropical cyclones.展开更多
The simulation of salinity at different locations of a tidal river using physically-based hydrodynamic models is quite cumbersome because it requires many types of data, such as hydrological and hydraulic time series ...The simulation of salinity at different locations of a tidal river using physically-based hydrodynamic models is quite cumbersome because it requires many types of data, such as hydrological and hydraulic time series at boundaries, river geometry, and adjusted coefficients. Therefore, an artificial neural network (ANN) technique using a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is adopted as an effective alternative in salinity simulation studies. The present study focuses on comparing the performance of BPNN, RBFNN, and three-dimensional hydrodynamic models as applied to a tidal estuarine system. The observed salinity data sets collected from 18 to 22 May, 16 to 22 October, and 26 to 30 October 2002 (totaling 4320 data points) were used for BPNN and RBFNN model training and for hydrodynamic model calibration. The data sets collected from 30 May to 2 June and 11 to 15 November 2002 (totaling 2592 data points) were adopted for BPNN and RBFNN model verification and for hydrodynamic model verification. The results revealed that the ANN (BPNN and RBFNN) models were capable of predicting the nonlinear time series behavior of salinity to the multiple forcing signals of water stages at different stations and freshwater input at upstream boundaries. The salinity predicted by the ANN models was better than that predicted by the physically based hydrodynamic model. This study suggests that BPNN and RBFNN models are easy-to-use modeling tools for simulating the salinity variation in a tidal estuarine system.展开更多
In this paper, using the daily grid data (2.5 × 2.5) of the ECMWF / WMO, we have computed respectively the three-dimensional wave activity flux in the stages of pre-onset, prevailing and post ending of Meiyu from...In this paper, using the daily grid data (2.5 × 2.5) of the ECMWF / WMO, we have computed respectively the three-dimensional wave activity flux in the stages of pre-onset, prevailing and post ending of Meiyu from 1 to 31 July 1982. The potential vorticity field is taken as the physical quantity relating the wave activity flux to the variation of the subtropical high over the Western Pacific. It is found that the three-dimensional wave activity flux is a powerful means for diagnosis of the variation of the subtropical high over the Western Pacific: The region of the subtropical high is just the confluence area of wave energy, whose changes in intensity and range decide the variation of the subtropical high. The confluence of wave energy comes from the monsoon flow in low latitudes, the Meiyu rain belts in middle latitudes and the heating fields on the eastern side of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The relation between these sources and the subtropical high displays the self-adjusting mechanism among members of East-Asia summer monsoon.展开更多
By introducing the dimensional splitting(DS)method into the multiscale interpolating element-free Galerkin(VMIEFG)method,a dimension-splitting multiscale interpolating element-free Galerkin(DS-VMIEFG)method is propose...By introducing the dimensional splitting(DS)method into the multiscale interpolating element-free Galerkin(VMIEFG)method,a dimension-splitting multiscale interpolating element-free Galerkin(DS-VMIEFG)method is proposed for three-dimensional(3D)singular perturbed convection-diffusion(SPCD)problems.In the DSVMIEFG method,the 3D problem is decomposed into a series of 2D problems by the DS method,and the discrete equations on the 2D splitting surface are obtained by the VMIEFG method.The improved interpolation-type moving least squares(IIMLS)method is used to construct shape functions in the weak form and to combine 2D discrete equations into a global system of discrete equations for the three-dimensional SPCD problems.The solved numerical example verifies the effectiveness of the method in this paper for the 3D SPCD problems.The numerical solution will gradually converge to the analytical solution with the increase in the number of nodes.For extremely small singular diffusion coefficients,the numerical solution will avoid numerical oscillation and has high computational stability.展开更多
Only simplified two-dimensional model and a single failure mode are adopted to calculate the ultimate pullout capacity(UPC)of anchor cables in most previous research.This study focuses on a more comprehensive combinat...Only simplified two-dimensional model and a single failure mode are adopted to calculate the ultimate pullout capacity(UPC)of anchor cables in most previous research.This study focuses on a more comprehensive combination failure mode that consists of bond failure of an anchorage body and failure of an anchored rock mass.The three-dimensional ultimate pullout capacity of the anchor cables is calculated based on the Hoek-Brown failure criterion and variation analysis method.The numerical solution for the curvilinear function in fracture plane is obtained based on the finite difference theory,which more accurately reflects the failure state of the anchor cable,as opposed to that being assumed in advance.The results reveal that relying solely on a single failure mode for UPC calculations has limitations,as changes in parameter values not only directly impact the UPC value but also can alter the failure model and thus the calculation method.展开更多
基金The National Basic Research Program of China under contract No. 2013CB430304the National High-Tech R&D Program of China under contract No. 2013AA09A505the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41030854,40906015,40906016,41106005 and 41176003
文摘In order to solve the so-called ＂bull-eye＂ problem caused by using a simple bilinear interpolation as an observational mapping operator in the cost function in the multigrid three-dimensional variational （3DVAR） data assimilation scheme, a smoothing term, equivalent to a penalty term, is introduced into the cost function to serve as a means of troubleshooting. A theoretical analysis is first performed to figure out what on earth results in the issue of ＂bull-eye＂, and then the meaning of such smoothing term is elucidated and the uniqueness of solution of the multigrid 3DVAR with the smoothing term added is discussed through the theoretical deduction for one-dimensional （1D） case, and two idealized data assimilation experiments （one- and two-dimensional （2D） cases）. By exploring the relationship between the smoothing term and the recursive filter theoretically and practically, it is revealed why satisfied analysis results can be achieved by using such proposed solution for the issue of the multigrid 3DVAR.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41105063)
文摘This work addresses the problem of estimating the states of nonlinear dynamic systems with sparse observations.We present a hybrid three-dimensional variation（3DVar） and particle piltering（PF） method,which combines the advantages of 3DVar and particle-based filters.By minimizing the cost function,this approach will produce a better proposal distribution of the state.Afterwards the stochastic resampling step in standard PF can be avoided through a deterministic scheme.The simulation results show that the performance of the new method is superior to the traditional ensemble Kalman filtering（EnKF） and the standard PF,especially in highly nonlinear systems.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Science(Contract No. KZCX2-YW-202)the 973 Pro-gram (Grant No. 2006CB403606)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40606008,40776011)
文摘In order to improve the efficiency of the Ocean Variational Assimilation System （OVALS）, which has been widely used in various applications, an improved OVALS （OVALS2） is developed based on the recursive filter （RF） algorithm. The first advantage of OVALS2 is that memory storage can be substantially reduced in practice because it implicitly computes the background error covariance matrix; the second advantage is that there is no inversion of the background error covariance by preconditioning the control variable. For comparing the effectiveness between OVALS2 and OVALS, a set of experiments was implemented by assimilating expendable bathythermograph （XBT） and ARGO data into the Tropical Pacific circulation model. The results show that the efficiency of OVALS2 is much higher than that of OVALS. The computational time and the computer storage in the assimilation process were reduced by 83% and 77%, respectively. Additionally, the corresponding results produced by the RF are almost as good as those obtained by OVALS. These results prove that OVALS2 is suitable for operational numerical oceanic forecasting.
基金supported by the Central Guiding Local Science and Technology Development Fund of Shandong-Yellow River Basin(No.YDZX2023019)Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.ZR2020QF067 and ZR2023QD073)+6 种基金the Discipline Cluster Research Project of Qingdao University“Deep mining and intelligent prediction of multimodal big data for marine ecological disasters”(No.20240604)sourced from the International Argo Program and the national programs that contribute to it(https://argo.ucsd.edu)the CMEMS(http://marine.copernicus.eu/)the CDS(https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/)the EMODnet(https://www.emodnet-chemistry.eu/)obtained from the ERA5(https://www.ecmwf.int)derived from the Glob Colour Project(http://globcolour.info).
文摘Oceanic dissolved oxygen(DO)concentration is crucial for assessing the status of marine ecosystems.Against the backdrop of global warming,DO shows a general decrease,posing a threat to the health of marine ecosystems.Therefore,there is an urgent need to develop advanced tools to characterize the spatio-temporal variations of three-dimensional(3D)DO.To address this challenge,this study introduces the Light Gradient Boosting Machine(Light-GBM),combining satellite remote sensing and reanalysis data with Biogeochemical Argo data to accurately reconstruct the 3D DO structure in the Mediterranean Sea from 2010 to 2022.Various environmental parameters are incorporated as inputs,including spatiotemporal features,meteorological characteristics,and ocean color properties.The LightGBM model demonstrates excellent performance on the testing dataset with R^(2) of 0.958.The modeled DO agrees better with in-situ measurements than products from numerical models.Using the Shapley Additive exPlanations method,the contributions of input features are assessed.Sea surface temperatures provide a correlation with DO at the sea surface,while spatial coordinates supplement the view of the ocean interior.Based on the reconstructed 3D DO structure,we identify an oxygen minimum zone in the western Mediterranean that expands continuously,reaching depths of approximately 300–800 m.The western Mediterranean exhibits a significant declining trend.This study enhances marine environmental evidence by proposing a precise and cost-effective approach for reconstructing 3D DO,thereby offering insights into the dynamics of DO variations under changing climatic conditions.
基金The National Key R&D Program of China under contract No.2022YFE0106400the China Scholarship Council under contract No.202206710071+2 种基金the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province under contract No.KYCX23_0657the Special Founds for Creative Research under contract No.2022C61540the Opening Project of the Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Information Technology under contract No.521037412.
文摘Satellite altimetry missions at high latitude have opened new avenues for understanding the changes occurring over the ice-covered region.By incorporating Arctic satellite remote sensing data-including sea surface temperature(SST),sea surface height anomaly(SSHA),and sea surface salinity(SSS).This study employs a variational method to reconstruct the three-dimensional thermohaline structure of the Arctic Ocean.Compared to the Regional Arctic Reanalysis(RARE),the reconstruction well captures both the horizontal and vertical temperature and salinity structures in the Arctic.It demonstrates superior skill over RARE,when compared with Argo profiles and Ice-Tethered Profiler(ITP)observations.The reconstruction is particularly effective in ice-covered regions,where it more accurately captures the transition from Pacific water to Atlantic water compared to RARE.These findings underscore the potential of applying Arctic satellite data to reconstruct vertical thermohaline structures in the Arctic,particularly in areas due to lack of the subsurface observation reanalysis data exhibit significant biases.As Arctic satellite observations continue to advance,the applications of this method are becoming increasingly promising,which is useful for monitoring the ice-covered region environment and can be applied to oceanographic research.
基金National Key Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2014CB441406)National Natural Science Foundation of China(91537209 and 41675001)Basic Research Fund of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2016Z002and 2016Y008)
文摘A large number of observational analyses have shown that lightning data can be used to indicate areas of deep convection. It is important to assimilate observed lightning data into numerical models, so that more small-scale information can be incorporated to improve the quality of the initial condition and the subsequent forecasts. In this study, the empirical relationship between flash rate, water vapor mixing ratio, and graupel mixing ratio was used to adjust the model relative humidity, which was then assimilated by using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting model in cycling mode at 10-min intervals. To find the appropriate assimilation time-window length that yielded significant improvement in both the initial conditions and subsequent forecasts, four experiments with different assimilation time-window lengths were conducted for a squall line case that occurred on 10 July 2007 in North China. It was found that 60 min was the appropriate assimilation time-window length for this case, and longer assimilation window length was unnecessary since no further improvement was present. Forecasts of 1-h accumulated precipitation during the assimilation period and the subsequent 3-h accumulated precipitation were significantly improved compared with the control experiment without lightning data assimilation. The simulated reflectivity was optimal after 30 min of the forecast, it remained optimal during the following 42 min, and the positive effect from lightning data assimilation began to diminish after 72 min of the forecast. Overall,the improvement from lightning data assimilation can be maintained for about 3 h.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42027804,41775026,and 41075012)。
文摘Cirrus clouds play a crucial role in the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system.We investigated the spatiotemporal variations of cirrus over the South China Sea(SCS)using satellite data(MOD08,MYD08,CALIPSO)and reanalysis data(MERRA-2)from March 2007 to February 2015(eight years).The horizontal distribution reveals lower cirrus fraction values in the northern SCS and higher values in the southern region,with minima observed in March and April and maxima sequentially occurring in August(northern SCS,NSCS),September(middle SCS,MSCS),and December(southern SCS,SSCS).Vertically,the cirrus fraction peaks in summer and reaches its lowest levels in spring.Opaque cirrus dominates during summer in the NSCS and MSCS,comprising 53.6%and 55.9%,respectively,while the SSCS exhibits a higher frequency of opaque cirrus relative to other cloud types.Subvisible cirrus clouds have the lowest frequency year-round,whereas thin cirrus is most prominent in winter in the NSCS(46.3%)and in spring in the MSCS(45.3%).A case study from September 2021 further explores the influence of ice crystal habits on brightness temperature(BT)over the SCS.Simulations utilizing five ice crystal shapes from the ARTS DDA(Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator Discrete Dipole Approximation)database and the RTTOV 12.4 radiative transfer model reveal that the 8-column-aggregate shape best represents BT in the NSCS and SSCS,while the large-block-aggregate shape performs better in the SSCS.
文摘Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disorder characterized by the progressive degeneration of upper and lower motor neurons in the brainstem and spinal cord,leading to muscle weakness,paralysis,and respiratory failure (Morgan and Orrell,2016).
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Development Program of China(973 Program)under contract Nos 2007CB816002,2007CB816005the innovative key project of Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.KZCXZ-YW-201
文摘The three-dimensional structure and the seasonal variation of the North Pacific meridional overturning circulation （NPMOC） are analyzed based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation data and Argo profiling float data. The NPMOC displays a multi-cell structure with four cells in the North Pacific altogether. The TC and the STC are a strong clockwise meridional cell in the low latitude ocean and a weaker clockwise meridional cell between 7°N and 18°N, respectively, while the DTC and the subpolar cell are a weaker anticlockwise meridional cell between 3°N and 15°N and a weakest anticlockwise meridional cell between 35°N and 50°N, respectively. The DTC, the TC and the STC are all of very strong seasonal variations. As to the DTC, the southward transport is strongest in fall and weakest in spring. For the TC, the northward transport is strongest in winter and weakest in spring, while the southward transport is strongest in fall and weakest in spring, which is associated with the strong southward fiow of the DTC in fall. As the STC, the northward transport is strongest in winter and weakest in summer, while the southward transport is strongest in summer and weakest in spring. This seasonal difference may be associated with the DTC. The zonal wind stress and the east-west slope of sea level play important roles in the seasonal variations of the TC, the STC and the DTC.
基金Supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFC1406202)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41830964,41976188,41605051)。
文摘As in-situ observations are sparse,targeted observations of a specific mesoscale eddy are rare.Therefore,it is difficult to study the three-dimensional structure of moving mesoscale eddies.From April to September 2014,an anticyclonic eddy located at 135°E-155°E,26°N-42°N was observed using 17 rapidsampling Argo floats,and the spatiotemporal variations in the three-dimensional structure were studied.The results are as follows:(1)the eddy was identified and tracked using satellite altimeter data.It had a lifetime of 269 days and an average radius of 91.5 km.The lifetime of the eddy can be divided into three phases,i.e.,the initiation,maturity,and termination phases.The depth of its influence reached 1000 m;(2)the Argo profiles were divided into seven periods(approximately 20 days in each)for composite analysis,and the composite Argo profiles and CARS2009(CSIRO Atlas of Regional Seas)climatology data were merged following the data-interpolating variational analysis(DIVA)method to reconstruct the three-dimensional structure.The temperature and salinity anomaly cores of the anticyclonic mesoscale eddy are located from 400 to 600 m.From 800 to 900 m,there is an area of low salinity at the center of the eddy.A high concentration anomaly of dissolved oxygen was located at approximately 250 m;(3)to better understand the features of the eddy and its interaction with the surroundings,we calculated the anomalous velocity of the geostrophic flow and the heat,salt,dissolved oxygen transport anomaly,and discussed the eddy's origin and its adjustments to topography.The maximum heat,salt,and oxygen transport caused by eddy were 9.37×10^11 W,3.08×10^3 kg/s,and 2.70×10^2 kg/s,which all occurred during the termination phase.This study highlights the applicability of using Argo floats to understand the three-dimensional structure thermohaline features of eddies in the North Pacific.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2019YFC1510400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41975054 and 41930967)the Special Fund for Forecasters of China Meteorological Administration(Grant No.CMAYBY2018-040)。
文摘In this paper,a scheme of dual-Doppler radar wind analysis based on a three-dimensional variational method is proposed and performed in two steps.First,the horizontal wind field is simultaneously recovered through minimizing a cost function defined as a radial observation term with the standard conjugate gradient method,avoiding a weighting parameter specification step.Compared with conventional dual-Doppler wind synthesis approaches,this variational method minimizes errors caused by interpolation from radar observation to analysis grid in the iterative solution process,which is one of the main sources of errors.Then,through the accelerated Liebmann method,the vertical velocity is further reestimated as an extra step by solving the Poisson equation with impermeable conditions imposed at the ground and near the tropopause.The Poisson equation defined by the second derivative of the vertical velocity is derived from the mass continuity equation.Compared with the method proposed by O’Brien,this method is less sensitive to the uncertainty of the boundary conditions and has better stability and reliability.Furthermore,the method proposed in this paper is applied to Doppler radar observation of a squall line process.It is shown that the retrieved vertical wind profile agrees well with the vertical profile obtained with the velocity–azimuth display(VAD)method,and the retrieved radial velocity as well as the analyzed positive and negative velocity centers and horizontal wind shear of the squall line are in accord with radar observations.There is a good correspondence between the divergence field of the derived wind field and the vertical velocity.And,the horizontal and vertical circulations within and around the squall line,as well as strong updrafts,the associated downdrafts,and associated rear inflow of the bow echo,are analyzed well.It is worth mentioning that the variational method in this paper can be applied to simultaneously synthesize the three-dimensional wind field from multiple-Doppler radar observations.
基金Projects(51478477,51878074)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2017-123-033)supported by the Guizhou Provincial Department of Transportation Foundation,ChinaProjects(2018zzts663,2018zzts656)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China
文摘In the framework of upper bound theorem of limit analysis, the progressive collapse of shallow rectangular tunnels with double-layer rock mass has been theoretically analyzed based on the three-dimensional (3D) velocity discontinuity surfaces. According to the virtual work principle, the difference theorem and the variation method, the collapse surface of double-layer rock mass is determined based on the Hoek-Brown failure criterion. The formula can be degenerated to a single-layer rock collapsing problem when the rock mass is homogeneous. To estimate the validity of the result, the numerical simulation software PLAXIS 3D is used to simulate the collapse of shallow tunnels with double-layer rock mass, and the comparative analysis shows that numerical results are in good agreement with upper-bound solutions. According to the results of parametric analysis, the potential range of collapse of a double-layer rock mass above a shallow cavity decreases with a decrease in A1/A2,σci1/σci2 and σtm1/σtm2 and an increase in B1/B2,γ1/γ2. The range will decrease with a decrease in support pressure q and increase with a decrease in surface overload σs. Therefore, reinforced supporting is beneficial to improve the stability of the cavity during actual construction.
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51575235)
文摘A tolerance modeling method of geometric variations within three-dimensional(3D) tolerance domain is proposed.According to the classification method of feature variations and classes of invariance or symmetry in the new generation Geometrical Product Specifications(GPS) system,the proposed method is based on the Small Displacement Torsor(SDT) concept,and SDT is used to represent the geometric deviations between the nominal feature and the fitting feature. Furthermore,the variation zones of several kinds complex or irregular geometric features are constructed,and the corresponding tolerance modeling methods are discussed respectively. Finally,an example is presented to verify the efficiency of the presented method for modeling 3D dimensional and geometrical tolerances.The proposed modeling method based on the complete mathematical foundation conforms with the design philosophy and principle of the new generation GPS standards system.
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(50406003)
文摘Three-dimensional models, consisting of the flame kernel formation model, flame kernel development model and natural gas single step reaction model, are used to analyze the contribution of cyclic equivalence ratio variations to cyclic variations in the compressed natural gas （CNG） lean burn spark ignition engine. Computational results including the contributions of equivalence ratio cyclic variations to each combustion stage and effects of engine speed to the extent of combustion variations are discussed. It is concluded that the equivalence ratio variations affect mostly the main stage of combustion and hardly influence initial kernel development stage.
基金Key Technologies Research and Development Program (Grant No. 2001BA607B and 2001BA607B02)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40518001)
文摘The scientific design and preliminary results of the data assimilation component of the Global-Regional Prediction and Assimilation System (GRAPES) recently developed in China Meteorological Administration (CMA) are presented in this paper. This is a three-dimensional variational (3DVar) assimilation system set up on global and regional grid meshes favorable for direct assimilation of the space-based remote sensing data and matching the frame work of the prediction model GRAPES. The state variables are assumed to decompose balanced and unbalanced components. By introducing a simple transformation from the state variables to the control variables with a recursive or spectral filter, the convergence rate of iteration for minimization of the cost function in 3DVar is greatly accelerated. The definition of dynamical balance depends on the characteristic scale of the circulation considered. The ratio of the balanced to the unbalanced parts is controlled by the prescribed statistics of background errors. Idealized trials produce the same results as the analytic solution. The results of real data case studies show the capability of the system to improve analysis compared to the traditional schemes. Finally, further development of the system is discussed.
基金Support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under No.40175028 and the Key Technologies R & D Programme under No.2004BA607B.
文摘The dynamical constrains in three-dimensional variational data assimilation are discussed when considering the impact of stream divergence and convergence on the pressure and wind fields. For the analysis of severe tropical cyclone, frontal structures, and other rapidly changing structures, the geostrophic balance and linear balance cannot properly represent the relationship between wind and pressure fields. However, the nonlinear balance incremental equation takes into account the information of flow-dependent background, and makes response to the flow-dependent background covariance in the 3D-Var system. Results indicate that the application of the nonlinear balance equation to 3D-Var system improves the quality of severe tropical cyclone assimilation system, which has some positive effects on intensity prediction of tropical cyclones.
文摘The simulation of salinity at different locations of a tidal river using physically-based hydrodynamic models is quite cumbersome because it requires many types of data, such as hydrological and hydraulic time series at boundaries, river geometry, and adjusted coefficients. Therefore, an artificial neural network (ANN) technique using a back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) is adopted as an effective alternative in salinity simulation studies. The present study focuses on comparing the performance of BPNN, RBFNN, and three-dimensional hydrodynamic models as applied to a tidal estuarine system. The observed salinity data sets collected from 18 to 22 May, 16 to 22 October, and 26 to 30 October 2002 (totaling 4320 data points) were used for BPNN and RBFNN model training and for hydrodynamic model calibration. The data sets collected from 30 May to 2 June and 11 to 15 November 2002 (totaling 2592 data points) were adopted for BPNN and RBFNN model verification and for hydrodynamic model verification. The results revealed that the ANN (BPNN and RBFNN) models were capable of predicting the nonlinear time series behavior of salinity to the multiple forcing signals of water stages at different stations and freshwater input at upstream boundaries. The salinity predicted by the ANN models was better than that predicted by the physically based hydrodynamic model. This study suggests that BPNN and RBFNN models are easy-to-use modeling tools for simulating the salinity variation in a tidal estuarine system.
文摘In this paper, using the daily grid data (2.5 × 2.5) of the ECMWF / WMO, we have computed respectively the three-dimensional wave activity flux in the stages of pre-onset, prevailing and post ending of Meiyu from 1 to 31 July 1982. The potential vorticity field is taken as the physical quantity relating the wave activity flux to the variation of the subtropical high over the Western Pacific. It is found that the three-dimensional wave activity flux is a powerful means for diagnosis of the variation of the subtropical high over the Western Pacific: The region of the subtropical high is just the confluence area of wave energy, whose changes in intensity and range decide the variation of the subtropical high. The confluence of wave energy comes from the monsoon flow in low latitudes, the Meiyu rain belts in middle latitudes and the heating fields on the eastern side of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The relation between these sources and the subtropical high displays the self-adjusting mechanism among members of East-Asia summer monsoon.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province,China(Grant Nos.LY20A010021,LY19A010002,LY20G030025)the Natural Science Founda-tion of Ningbo City,China(Grant Nos.2021J147,2021J235).
文摘By introducing the dimensional splitting(DS)method into the multiscale interpolating element-free Galerkin(VMIEFG)method,a dimension-splitting multiscale interpolating element-free Galerkin(DS-VMIEFG)method is proposed for three-dimensional(3D)singular perturbed convection-diffusion(SPCD)problems.In the DSVMIEFG method,the 3D problem is decomposed into a series of 2D problems by the DS method,and the discrete equations on the 2D splitting surface are obtained by the VMIEFG method.The improved interpolation-type moving least squares(IIMLS)method is used to construct shape functions in the weak form and to combine 2D discrete equations into a global system of discrete equations for the three-dimensional SPCD problems.The solved numerical example verifies the effectiveness of the method in this paper for the 3D SPCD problems.The numerical solution will gradually converge to the analytical solution with the increase in the number of nodes.For extremely small singular diffusion coefficients,the numerical solution will avoid numerical oscillation and has high computational stability.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2023JJ40078)the Scientific Research Project of Hunan Provincial Education Department(No.22C0573)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51478477,51878668)Guizhou Provincial Department of Transportation Foundation(2017-122058)Foundation of Guizhou Provincial Science and Technology Department([2018]2815).
文摘Only simplified two-dimensional model and a single failure mode are adopted to calculate the ultimate pullout capacity(UPC)of anchor cables in most previous research.This study focuses on a more comprehensive combination failure mode that consists of bond failure of an anchorage body and failure of an anchored rock mass.The three-dimensional ultimate pullout capacity of the anchor cables is calculated based on the Hoek-Brown failure criterion and variation analysis method.The numerical solution for the curvilinear function in fracture plane is obtained based on the finite difference theory,which more accurately reflects the failure state of the anchor cable,as opposed to that being assumed in advance.The results reveal that relying solely on a single failure mode for UPC calculations has limitations,as changes in parameter values not only directly impact the UPC value but also can alter the failure model and thus the calculation method.
