This study attempted to generate a long-term(1961-2010)daily gridded precipitation dataset for the Upper Indus Basin(UIB)with orographic adjustments so as to generate realistic precipitation estimates,enabling hydrolo...This study attempted to generate a long-term(1961-2010)daily gridded precipitation dataset for the Upper Indus Basin(UIB)with orographic adjustments so as to generate realistic precipitation estimates,enabling hydrological and water resource investigations that can close the water balance,that is difficult,if not impossible to achieve with the currently available precipitation data products for the basin.The procedure includes temporal reconstruction of precipitation series at points where data were not recorded prior to the mid-nineties,followed by a regionalization of the precipitation series to a smaller scale across the basin(0.125°x 0.125°),while introducing adjustments for the orographic effect and changes in glacier storage.The reconstruction process involves interpolation of the precipitation at virtual locations of the current(1995-)dense observational network,followed by corrections for frequency and intensity and adjustments for temporal trends at these virtual locations.The data generated in this way were further validated for temporal and spatial representativeness through evaluation of SWAT-modelled streamflow responses against observed flows across the UIB.The results show that the calibrated SWAT-simulated daily discharge at the basin outlet as well as at different sub-basin outlets,when forcing the model with the reconstructed precipitation of years 1973—1996,is almost identical to that when forcing it with the reference precipitation data(1997-2008).Finally,the spatial distribution pattern of the reconstructed(1961—1996)and reference(1997—2008)precipitation were also found consistent across the UIB,reflecting well the large-scale atmospheric-circulation pattern in the region.展开更多
Based on data on taxed-cropland area and on the number of households in historical documents, a probabilistic model of cropland distribution and a cropland area allocation model were designed and validated. Cropland a...Based on data on taxed-cropland area and on the number of households in historical documents, a probabilistic model of cropland distribution and a cropland area allocation model were designed and validated. Cropland areas for the years AD976, 997, 1066, and 1078 were estimated at the level of Lu（an administrative region of the Northern Song Dynasty）. The results indicated that（1） the cropland area of the whole study region for AD976, 997, 1066, and 1078 was about 468.27 million mu（a Chinese unit of area, with1 mu=666.7m2）, 495.53 million mu, 697.65 million mu, and 731.94 million mu, respectively. The fractional cropland area（FCA） increased from 10.7% to 16.8%, and the per capita cropland area decreased from 15.7 mu to 8.4 mu.（2） With regard to the cropland spatial pattern, the FCA of the southeast, north, and southwest regions of the Northern Song territory increased by 12.0%, 5.2%, and 1.2%, respectively. The FCA of some regions in the Yangtze River Plain increased to greater than 40%, and the FCA of the North China Plain increased to greater than 20%. However, the FCA of the southwest region（except for the Chengdu Plain） in the Northern Song territory was less than 6%.（3） There were 84.2% Lus whose absolute relative error was smaller than 20% in the mid Northern Song Dynasty. The validation results indicate that our models are reasonable and that the results of reconstruction are credible.展开更多
文摘This study attempted to generate a long-term(1961-2010)daily gridded precipitation dataset for the Upper Indus Basin(UIB)with orographic adjustments so as to generate realistic precipitation estimates,enabling hydrological and water resource investigations that can close the water balance,that is difficult,if not impossible to achieve with the currently available precipitation data products for the basin.The procedure includes temporal reconstruction of precipitation series at points where data were not recorded prior to the mid-nineties,followed by a regionalization of the precipitation series to a smaller scale across the basin(0.125°x 0.125°),while introducing adjustments for the orographic effect and changes in glacier storage.The reconstruction process involves interpolation of the precipitation at virtual locations of the current(1995-)dense observational network,followed by corrections for frequency and intensity and adjustments for temporal trends at these virtual locations.The data generated in this way were further validated for temporal and spatial representativeness through evaluation of SWAT-modelled streamflow responses against observed flows across the UIB.The results show that the calibrated SWAT-simulated daily discharge at the basin outlet as well as at different sub-basin outlets,when forcing the model with the reconstructed precipitation of years 1973—1996,is almost identical to that when forcing it with the reference precipitation data(1997-2008).Finally,the spatial distribution pattern of the reconstructed(1961—1996)and reference(1997—2008)precipitation were also found consistent across the UIB,reflecting well the large-scale atmospheric-circulation pattern in the region.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41271227 The Special Program for Basic Work of the Ministry of Science and Technology,China,No.2014FY210900
文摘Based on data on taxed-cropland area and on the number of households in historical documents, a probabilistic model of cropland distribution and a cropland area allocation model were designed and validated. Cropland areas for the years AD976, 997, 1066, and 1078 were estimated at the level of Lu（an administrative region of the Northern Song Dynasty）. The results indicated that（1） the cropland area of the whole study region for AD976, 997, 1066, and 1078 was about 468.27 million mu（a Chinese unit of area, with1 mu=666.7m2）, 495.53 million mu, 697.65 million mu, and 731.94 million mu, respectively. The fractional cropland area（FCA） increased from 10.7% to 16.8%, and the per capita cropland area decreased from 15.7 mu to 8.4 mu.（2） With regard to the cropland spatial pattern, the FCA of the southeast, north, and southwest regions of the Northern Song territory increased by 12.0%, 5.2%, and 1.2%, respectively. The FCA of some regions in the Yangtze River Plain increased to greater than 40%, and the FCA of the North China Plain increased to greater than 20%. However, the FCA of the southwest region（except for the Chengdu Plain） in the Northern Song territory was less than 6%.（3） There were 84.2% Lus whose absolute relative error was smaller than 20% in the mid Northern Song Dynasty. The validation results indicate that our models are reasonable and that the results of reconstruction are credible.
