The U.S.administration's decision tounilaterally impose sweeping tariff increas-es on tmported goods represents a signifi-cant challenge to the existing global tradingsystem,which has long been structuredaround mu...The U.S.administration's decision tounilaterally impose sweeping tariff increas-es on tmported goods represents a signifi-cant challenge to the existing global tradingsystem,which has long been structuredaround multilateral(WTO),regional,andbilateral(FTA)trade agreements.展开更多
The U.S.imposition of high tariffs on Chinese goods has triggered short-term strains on China’s exports.At the same time,it has also accelerated its strategic pivot toward technological self-reliance,regional integra...The U.S.imposition of high tariffs on Chinese goods has triggered short-term strains on China’s exports.At the same time,it has also accelerated its strategic pivot toward technological self-reliance,regional integration,and domestic demand expansion.展开更多
On April 2,the United States announced the implementation of the so-called“reciprocal tariffs”plan.Combined with factors such as the OPEC+plan to increase production starting in May,this led to a continuous plunge i...On April 2,the United States announced the implementation of the so-called“reciprocal tariffs”plan.Combined with factors such as the OPEC+plan to increase production starting in May,this led to a continuous plunge in the benchmark oil prices of WTI and Brent over the subsequent three trading days.Despite the significant impact of the United States’“reciprocal tariffs”plan on the global political and economic landscape,the fundamental dynamics of supply and demand remain the decisive factors in the fluctuations of international oil prices.The current trend of international oil price fluctuations is still primarily driven by the supply side,with both supply and demand factors playing a role.Investment,costs,and resource constraints on the supply side do not allow for a significant increase in crude oil production,while“consumption rigidity”on the demand side does not permit a significant decrease in crude oil demand.As a result,International oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term,but a significant decline is unlikely to be sustained in the near to medium term.In this context,Chinese oil companies should focus on four key areas to ensure the security of national oil and gas supplies:first,promoting high-quality increases in domestic oil and gas reserves and production;second,steadily strengthening the acquisition of overseas oil and gas resources;third,continuously driving innovation in oil and gas exploration and development technologies;fourth,enhancing the capacity for domestic oil and gas reserves in an orderly manner.展开更多
The United States’tariff policy implemented under the framework of“reciprocal tariffs”has aroused widespread attention in the international community,and has had complex impacts on global trade.This policy not only...The United States’tariff policy implemented under the framework of“reciprocal tariffs”has aroused widespread attention in the international community,and has had complex impacts on global trade.This policy not only has an impact on Chinese enterprises but also brings adjustments to global industrial chains,with varying perspectives from the international community.Based on an analysis of Sino-U.S.economic and trade relations,this paper structures the logic behind it and uses case studies for comparison to analyze the impact of U.S.tariff policies on Chinese companies.It explores how Chinese enterprises can respond to the negative effects of these tariffs.The study finds that in the face of U.S.tariff policies,Chinese enterprises will experience increased direct costs and forced supply chain adjustments.Therefore,the conclusion is drawn that companies need to address the impact of U.S.tariff policies through four aspects:Supply chain restructuring,market diversification,technological innovation,and compliance management.展开更多
The US market for women's synthetic trou-sers is characterised by intense competition,with Asian countries playing a dominant role in exports.This analysis delves into the market performance of leading exporters,a...The US market for women's synthetic trou-sers is characterised by intense competition,with Asian countries playing a dominant role in exports.This analysis delves into the market performance of leading exporters,assessing key indicators such as export values,revealed comparative advantage(RCA).unit value realisation(UVR),and the effect of tariff rates.展开更多
An operating schedule of the parallel electric arc furnaces(EAFs)considering both productivity and energy related criteria is investigated.A mathematical model is established to minimize the total completion time and ...An operating schedule of the parallel electric arc furnaces(EAFs)considering both productivity and energy related criteria is investigated.A mathematical model is established to minimize the total completion time and the total electricity cost.This problem is proved to be an NP-hard problem,and an effective solution algorithm,longest processing time-genetic(LPT-gene)algorithm,is proposed.The impacts of varied processing energy consumption and electricity price on the optimal schedules are analyzed.The integrated influence of the different weight values and the variation between the peak price and the trough price on the optimal solution is studied.Computational experiments illustrate that considering the energy consumption costs in production has little influence on makespan;the computational performance of the proposed longest processing time-genetic algorithm is better than the genetic algorithm(GA)in the issue to be studied;considerable reductions in the energy consumption costs can be achieved by avoiding producing during high-energy price periods and reducing the machining energy consumption difference.The results can be a guidance for managers to improve productivity and to save energy costs under the time-of-use tariffs.展开更多
In order to clarify the linkage between carbon tariffs and trade development, the Pearl River Delta region of China, the area with intensive processing trade, was selected to analyze the effects of carbon tariff colle...In order to clarify the linkage between carbon tariffs and trade development, the Pearl River Delta region of China, the area with intensive processing trade, was selected to analyze the effects of carbon tariff collections on the production cost, export commodity structure, trade modes and trade terms of the export industries in the Pearl River Delta region, and measures of developing low carbon trade were proposed.展开更多
Demand side management (DSM) has been discussed and investigated widely as a strategy to also influence residential energy consumption. Flexible energy tariffs are often proposed as a possible tool of DSM. However, re...Demand side management (DSM) has been discussed and investigated widely as a strategy to also influence residential energy consumption. Flexible energy tariffs are often proposed as a possible tool of DSM. However, real-life experience with this tool is rare. It was therefore the objective of this study to investigate under more realistic conditions how consumers are able and willing to adjust their residential energy consumption under the conditions of flexible energy tariffs with and without the support of intelligent smart appliances. Sixty-seven households in Germany within an experimental design with fictive tariff model (August 11 to July 12) driven by RWE Effizienz GmbH, as the energy utility, and Miele & Cie.KG, as the appliance manufacturer, were equipped with intelligent smart meters and 41 of them also with smart appliances (washing-machine and tumble-dryer). As a first part of the experiment, the energy tariff changed per hour and day by day, depending on the forecast of the availability of renewable energy in Germany between 10 €-Cent and 40 €-Cent per kWh. Consumers could respond to this change by adjusting the operation of their energyconsuming appliances either by themselves or—with the smart appliances—by a programmed start at low tariffs. The behaviour of the 41 consumers with smart appliances and their motivation are intensively investigated and analysed during this running two year project including several questionnaires. The consumers had to fill out daily a diary about the usage of their washing-machine, tumble-dryer, dishwasher and ironing devices. These data were matched with the actual tariff. This did allow identifying if and to which extend the consumers adjust their household activities depending on availability of solar and wind energy. These data were also used to calculate the cost savings by using the flexible tariff. In comparison to the costs of the fixed tariff of 25 €-Cent per kWh savings of 25% were realised on average. The results of a first phase already show that flexible tariffs are able to influence the operation of household appliances towards a flexible demand.展开更多
In this paper, the impact of tariffs and exchange rate on consumption and investment in an open economy of scarcity of capital is analysed.The dynamics and market price of capital,and the solution of foreign asset hol...In this paper, the impact of tariffs and exchange rate on consumption and investment in an open economy of scarcity of capital is analysed.The dynamics and market price of capital,and the solution of foreign asset holding of the firm are discussed.Particular attention is also devoted to the social welfare aspects.展开更多
It is learned from oversea reports that, Indonesia launched a 20% tariff on 14 mineral products including iron ore since May 6th. It is reported, in addition to Indonesia, other countries will lift tariffs or limit th...It is learned from oversea reports that, Indonesia launched a 20% tariff on 14 mineral products including iron ore since May 6th. It is reported, in addition to Indonesia, other countries will lift tariffs or limit the export of mineral resources.展开更多
China＇s tariff arrangement in the transition period after ＂entry to WTO＂ influences the process of the multilateral trade system in the world. Establishing the free trade area and customs union according to WTO/GAT...China＇s tariff arrangement in the transition period after ＂entry to WTO＂ influences the process of the multilateral trade system in the world. Establishing the free trade area and customs union according to WTO/GATS 1994 article 24, or according to authorizing the clause （Enabling Clause ） to sign the regional trade agreement between developing countries or signed the protocol of economic integration taking promoting and serving the liberalization of trade as purpose according to WTO/GATS article 5, include the regional trade agreement in the multilateral trade system frame to standardize, supervise and coordinate to China, reduce trade protectionism and improve the multilateral trade system＇s influence in the world greatly. Drawing lessons from CEPA and China the system of the manoeuvre ahead of time of overall ＂entry to WTO＂ of ASEAN Free Trade Area and arrange, accelerate multilateral regional cooperation in economy and trade, zero tariff scheme reform favors route choice.展开更多
With the incessant development of power market reform,the existing cross-subsidy in electricity tariffs has become a critical problem in China's power industry development.On the basis of the theories of cross-sub...With the incessant development of power market reform,the existing cross-subsidy in electricity tariffs has become a critical problem in China's power industry development.On the basis of the theories of cross-subsidy and electricity universal service,the authors take foreign countries' experience as reference to design several solutions to cross-subsidies in electricity tariffs in different phases of China's power industry development.Furthermore,the application and implementation of these solutions are analyzed in this paper.展开更多
The term"reciprocal tariffs"refers to a nechanism where a country or region mposes tariff rates on foreign products originating from other countries or regions,in response to the tariffs those counterparts l...The term"reciprocal tariffs"refers to a nechanism where a country or region mposes tariff rates on foreign products originating from other countries or regions,in response to the tariffs those counterparts levy on its own products.Based on the so-called"reciprocity"principle,this mechanism embodies the idea that"whatever tariff a country imposes on US goods,the US imposes the same rate,neither more nor less".展开更多
During a recent seminar hosted by Beijing Review,key opinion leaders and influencers from China and the U.S.,Gao Zhikai(Victor Gao),Vice President of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization and...During a recent seminar hosted by Beijing Review,key opinion leaders and influencers from China and the U.S.,Gao Zhikai(Victor Gao),Vice President of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization and former interpreter for Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping,and Danny Haiphong,an independent journalist and researcher on geopolitics in the U.S.,discussed the current progress between China and the U.S.on tariffs,and the shifts in today’s world,as well as China’s role in the international community.展开更多
Currently,the Trump Administration has implemented a series of impactful foreign policies,most notably the controversial"reciprocal tariffs"introduced in April 2025.Historically,this marks the inevitable cul...Currently,the Trump Administration has implemented a series of impactful foreign policies,most notably the controversial"reciprocal tariffs"introduced in April 2025.Historically,this marks the inevitable culmination of a century-long cycle in the United States(US)trade policy.While the US economy remains relatively resilient in the short and medium term,retaining stronger capacity to withstand fluctuations than most developed countries.China's manufacturing capacity is unparalleled globally.Therefore,China's global deployment of goods and capital should not only adhere to general economic principles,but also reflect its unique feature of production capacity,exploring a"going global"model tailored to its industrial and supply chain ecosystems.In shaping the new global economic and trade landscape,China aims to create a global production capacity model aligned with its industrial structure.展开更多
During Donald Trump's first term,the exchange rate of RMB against the USD faced overall pressure affected by economic and trade friction between China and the United States(US),weakening from 6.28 in early April 2...During Donald Trump's first term,the exchange rate of RMB against the USD faced overall pressure affected by economic and trade friction between China and the United States(US),weakening from 6.28 in early April 2018 to an intra-period low of 7.20 in early September 2019.However,so far this year witnessed the RMB exchange rate's considerable resilience in the face of the challenges posed by Trump's tariff policy.展开更多
U.S.President Donald Trump announced on February 1 he would levy additional tariffs of between 10 and 25 percent on imports from China,Mexico and Canada.Chief on his list of rationale for the new tariffs were claims t...U.S.President Donald Trump announced on February 1 he would levy additional tariffs of between 10 and 25 percent on imports from China,Mexico and Canada.Chief on his list of rationale for the new tariffs were claims that the three are to blame for the fentanyl crisis that has been exacerbating the ongoing opioid crisis in the U.S.since 2012.展开更多
This paper studies the employment effect of China’s possible implementation of zero tariffs by comparing China s most-favored-nation tariffs and the tariff schedules of China’s signed free trade agreements(FTAs)with...This paper studies the employment effect of China’s possible implementation of zero tariffs by comparing China s most-favored-nation tariffs and the tariff schedules of China’s signed free trade agreements(FTAs)with the tariff concessions in a typical high-standard FTA.It finds that there is a large gap between China s current tariff status and a high-standard FTA,and the implementation of zero tariffs in China would have a significant negative impact on employment in some industries.However,the employment effect of implementing zero tariffs is heterogeneous.Analysis at the industrial level shows that,although employment would drop in a few industries as a result of the implementation of zero tariffs,more jobs would be created in most industries.The overall employment effect of a zero tariff policy would be positive,creating an estimated 8.05 million jobs in China.Therefore,China should consider the adjustment costs brought by the labor movement in different industries and introduce relevant policies to deal with the employment shocks caused by zero tariffs.展开更多
This paper adopts the DID approach to investigate the trade destruction effects and trade deflection effects of the US additional tariffs.The authors find that the US additional tariffs significantly reduce China'...This paper adopts the DID approach to investigate the trade destruction effects and trade deflection effects of the US additional tariffs.The authors find that the US additional tariffs significantly reduce China's exports of tariffed products to the US(i.e.,trade destruction effect),especially intermediate and labor-intensive products.On the other hand,they significantly increase China's exports of tariffed products to the third market(i.e.,trade deflection effect).For the$50 billion list,both the trade destruction effect and trade deflection effect are concentrated on processing exports,and the US additional tariffs significantly increase China's exports of tariffed products to ASEAN,Japan and Australia.For the$200 billion list,the US additional tariffs boost China's exports of chemicals,textiles,wood,metal products,furniture and other products to the EU,Australia,Japan,South Africa and Hong Kong,China.Furthermore,most trade deflections are not realized by lowering export prices,indicating that the trade deflections could compensate for the profit losses caused by the US additional tariffs to a certain extent.The proposed results suggest that searching for substitutions of export markets and a more open trade policy is an important way to avoid profit losses and reduce risks for enterprises and economies suffering from trade frictions.展开更多
文摘The U.S.administration's decision tounilaterally impose sweeping tariff increas-es on tmported goods represents a signifi-cant challenge to the existing global tradingsystem,which has long been structuredaround multilateral(WTO),regional,andbilateral(FTA)trade agreements.
文摘The U.S.imposition of high tariffs on Chinese goods has triggered short-term strains on China’s exports.At the same time,it has also accelerated its strategic pivot toward technological self-reliance,regional integration,and domestic demand expansion.
文摘On April 2,the United States announced the implementation of the so-called“reciprocal tariffs”plan.Combined with factors such as the OPEC+plan to increase production starting in May,this led to a continuous plunge in the benchmark oil prices of WTI and Brent over the subsequent three trading days.Despite the significant impact of the United States’“reciprocal tariffs”plan on the global political and economic landscape,the fundamental dynamics of supply and demand remain the decisive factors in the fluctuations of international oil prices.The current trend of international oil price fluctuations is still primarily driven by the supply side,with both supply and demand factors playing a role.Investment,costs,and resource constraints on the supply side do not allow for a significant increase in crude oil production,while“consumption rigidity”on the demand side does not permit a significant decrease in crude oil demand.As a result,International oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term,but a significant decline is unlikely to be sustained in the near to medium term.In this context,Chinese oil companies should focus on four key areas to ensure the security of national oil and gas supplies:first,promoting high-quality increases in domestic oil and gas reserves and production;second,steadily strengthening the acquisition of overseas oil and gas resources;third,continuously driving innovation in oil and gas exploration and development technologies;fourth,enhancing the capacity for domestic oil and gas reserves in an orderly manner.
文摘The United States’tariff policy implemented under the framework of“reciprocal tariffs”has aroused widespread attention in the international community,and has had complex impacts on global trade.This policy not only has an impact on Chinese enterprises but also brings adjustments to global industrial chains,with varying perspectives from the international community.Based on an analysis of Sino-U.S.economic and trade relations,this paper structures the logic behind it and uses case studies for comparison to analyze the impact of U.S.tariff policies on Chinese companies.It explores how Chinese enterprises can respond to the negative effects of these tariffs.The study finds that in the face of U.S.tariff policies,Chinese enterprises will experience increased direct costs and forced supply chain adjustments.Therefore,the conclusion is drawn that companies need to address the impact of U.S.tariff policies through four aspects:Supply chain restructuring,market diversification,technological innovation,and compliance management.
文摘The US market for women's synthetic trou-sers is characterised by intense competition,with Asian countries playing a dominant role in exports.This analysis delves into the market performance of leading exporters,assessing key indicators such as export values,revealed comparative advantage(RCA).unit value realisation(UVR),and the effect of tariff rates.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71271054,71571042,71501046)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2242015S32023)the Scientific Research Innovation Project for College Graduates in Jiangsu Province(No.CXZZ12_0133)
文摘An operating schedule of the parallel electric arc furnaces(EAFs)considering both productivity and energy related criteria is investigated.A mathematical model is established to minimize the total completion time and the total electricity cost.This problem is proved to be an NP-hard problem,and an effective solution algorithm,longest processing time-genetic(LPT-gene)algorithm,is proposed.The impacts of varied processing energy consumption and electricity price on the optimal schedules are analyzed.The integrated influence of the different weight values and the variation between the peak price and the trough price on the optimal solution is studied.Computational experiments illustrate that considering the energy consumption costs in production has little influence on makespan;the computational performance of the proposed longest processing time-genetic algorithm is better than the genetic algorithm(GA)in the issue to be studied;considerable reductions in the energy consumption costs can be achieved by avoiding producing during high-energy price periods and reducing the machining energy consumption difference.The results can be a guidance for managers to improve productivity and to save energy costs under the time-of-use tariffs.
文摘In order to clarify the linkage between carbon tariffs and trade development, the Pearl River Delta region of China, the area with intensive processing trade, was selected to analyze the effects of carbon tariff collections on the production cost, export commodity structure, trade modes and trade terms of the export industries in the Pearl River Delta region, and measures of developing low carbon trade were proposed.
文摘Demand side management (DSM) has been discussed and investigated widely as a strategy to also influence residential energy consumption. Flexible energy tariffs are often proposed as a possible tool of DSM. However, real-life experience with this tool is rare. It was therefore the objective of this study to investigate under more realistic conditions how consumers are able and willing to adjust their residential energy consumption under the conditions of flexible energy tariffs with and without the support of intelligent smart appliances. Sixty-seven households in Germany within an experimental design with fictive tariff model (August 11 to July 12) driven by RWE Effizienz GmbH, as the energy utility, and Miele & Cie.KG, as the appliance manufacturer, were equipped with intelligent smart meters and 41 of them also with smart appliances (washing-machine and tumble-dryer). As a first part of the experiment, the energy tariff changed per hour and day by day, depending on the forecast of the availability of renewable energy in Germany between 10 €-Cent and 40 €-Cent per kWh. Consumers could respond to this change by adjusting the operation of their energyconsuming appliances either by themselves or—with the smart appliances—by a programmed start at low tariffs. The behaviour of the 41 consumers with smart appliances and their motivation are intensively investigated and analysed during this running two year project including several questionnaires. The consumers had to fill out daily a diary about the usage of their washing-machine, tumble-dryer, dishwasher and ironing devices. These data were matched with the actual tariff. This did allow identifying if and to which extend the consumers adjust their household activities depending on availability of solar and wind energy. These data were also used to calculate the cost savings by using the flexible tariff. In comparison to the costs of the fixed tariff of 25 €-Cent per kWh savings of 25% were realised on average. The results of a first phase already show that flexible tariffs are able to influence the operation of household appliances towards a flexible demand.
基金Project supported by Sichuan Youth Science and Technology Foundation(2 61 ) and Laboratory ofManagementDecision and Informat
文摘In this paper, the impact of tariffs and exchange rate on consumption and investment in an open economy of scarcity of capital is analysed.The dynamics and market price of capital,and the solution of foreign asset holding of the firm are discussed.Particular attention is also devoted to the social welfare aspects.
文摘It is learned from oversea reports that, Indonesia launched a 20% tariff on 14 mineral products including iron ore since May 6th. It is reported, in addition to Indonesia, other countries will lift tariffs or limit the export of mineral resources.
文摘China＇s tariff arrangement in the transition period after ＂entry to WTO＂ influences the process of the multilateral trade system in the world. Establishing the free trade area and customs union according to WTO/GATS 1994 article 24, or according to authorizing the clause （Enabling Clause ） to sign the regional trade agreement between developing countries or signed the protocol of economic integration taking promoting and serving the liberalization of trade as purpose according to WTO/GATS article 5, include the regional trade agreement in the multilateral trade system frame to standardize, supervise and coordinate to China, reduce trade protectionism and improve the multilateral trade system＇s influence in the world greatly. Drawing lessons from CEPA and China the system of the manoeuvre ahead of time of overall ＂entry to WTO＂ of ASEAN Free Trade Area and arrange, accelerate multilateral regional cooperation in economy and trade, zero tariff scheme reform favors route choice.
文摘With the incessant development of power market reform,the existing cross-subsidy in electricity tariffs has become a critical problem in China's power industry development.On the basis of the theories of cross-subsidy and electricity universal service,the authors take foreign countries' experience as reference to design several solutions to cross-subsidies in electricity tariffs in different phases of China's power industry development.Furthermore,the application and implementation of these solutions are analyzed in this paper.
文摘The term"reciprocal tariffs"refers to a nechanism where a country or region mposes tariff rates on foreign products originating from other countries or regions,in response to the tariffs those counterparts levy on its own products.Based on the so-called"reciprocity"principle,this mechanism embodies the idea that"whatever tariff a country imposes on US goods,the US imposes the same rate,neither more nor less".
文摘During a recent seminar hosted by Beijing Review,key opinion leaders and influencers from China and the U.S.,Gao Zhikai(Victor Gao),Vice President of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization and former interpreter for Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping,and Danny Haiphong,an independent journalist and researcher on geopolitics in the U.S.,discussed the current progress between China and the U.S.on tariffs,and the shifts in today’s world,as well as China’s role in the international community.
文摘Currently,the Trump Administration has implemented a series of impactful foreign policies,most notably the controversial"reciprocal tariffs"introduced in April 2025.Historically,this marks the inevitable culmination of a century-long cycle in the United States(US)trade policy.While the US economy remains relatively resilient in the short and medium term,retaining stronger capacity to withstand fluctuations than most developed countries.China's manufacturing capacity is unparalleled globally.Therefore,China's global deployment of goods and capital should not only adhere to general economic principles,but also reflect its unique feature of production capacity,exploring a"going global"model tailored to its industrial and supply chain ecosystems.In shaping the new global economic and trade landscape,China aims to create a global production capacity model aligned with its industrial structure.
文摘During Donald Trump's first term,the exchange rate of RMB against the USD faced overall pressure affected by economic and trade friction between China and the United States(US),weakening from 6.28 in early April 2018 to an intra-period low of 7.20 in early September 2019.However,so far this year witnessed the RMB exchange rate's considerable resilience in the face of the challenges posed by Trump's tariff policy.
文摘U.S.President Donald Trump announced on February 1 he would levy additional tariffs of between 10 and 25 percent on imports from China,Mexico and Canada.Chief on his list of rationale for the new tariffs were claims that the three are to blame for the fentanyl crisis that has been exacerbating the ongoing opioid crisis in the U.S.since 2012.
基金supported by the National Social Science Fund of China(No.16CGJ001).
文摘This paper studies the employment effect of China’s possible implementation of zero tariffs by comparing China s most-favored-nation tariffs and the tariff schedules of China’s signed free trade agreements(FTAs)with the tariff concessions in a typical high-standard FTA.It finds that there is a large gap between China s current tariff status and a high-standard FTA,and the implementation of zero tariffs in China would have a significant negative impact on employment in some industries.However,the employment effect of implementing zero tariffs is heterogeneous.Analysis at the industrial level shows that,although employment would drop in a few industries as a result of the implementation of zero tariffs,more jobs would be created in most industries.The overall employment effect of a zero tariff policy would be positive,creating an estimated 8.05 million jobs in China.Therefore,China should consider the adjustment costs brought by the labor movement in different industries and introduce relevant policies to deal with the employment shocks caused by zero tariffs.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.72103184,71988101,71673269the Major Project of National Social Science Foundation of China under Grant No.19ZDA062the Major Project of the Key Research Base for Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education under Grant No.22JJD790033。
文摘This paper adopts the DID approach to investigate the trade destruction effects and trade deflection effects of the US additional tariffs.The authors find that the US additional tariffs significantly reduce China's exports of tariffed products to the US(i.e.,trade destruction effect),especially intermediate and labor-intensive products.On the other hand,they significantly increase China's exports of tariffed products to the third market(i.e.,trade deflection effect).For the$50 billion list,both the trade destruction effect and trade deflection effect are concentrated on processing exports,and the US additional tariffs significantly increase China's exports of tariffed products to ASEAN,Japan and Australia.For the$200 billion list,the US additional tariffs boost China's exports of chemicals,textiles,wood,metal products,furniture and other products to the EU,Australia,Japan,South Africa and Hong Kong,China.Furthermore,most trade deflections are not realized by lowering export prices,indicating that the trade deflections could compensate for the profit losses caused by the US additional tariffs to a certain extent.The proposed results suggest that searching for substitutions of export markets and a more open trade policy is an important way to avoid profit losses and reduce risks for enterprises and economies suffering from trade frictions.
