On February 6,2023,a devastating earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.8 struck the town of Pazarcik in south-central Türkiye,followed by another powerful earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.6 tha...On February 6,2023,a devastating earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.8 struck the town of Pazarcik in south-central Türkiye,followed by another powerful earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.6 that struck the nearby city of Elbistan 9 h later.To study the characteristics of surface deformation caused by this event and the influence of fault rupture,this study calculated the static coseismic deformation of 56 stations and dynamic displacement waveforms of 15 stations using data from the Turkish national fixed global navigation satellite system(GNSS)network.A maximum static coseismic displacement of 0.38 m for the M_(W)7.8 Kahramanmaras earthquake was observed at station ANTE,36 km from the epicenter,and a maximum dynamic coseismic displacement of 4.4 m for the M_(W)7.6 Elbistan earthquake was observed at station EKZ1,5 km from the epicenter.The rupture-slip distributions of the two earthquakes were inverted using GNSS coseismic deformation as a constraint.The results showed that the Kahramanmaras earthquake rupture segment was distinct and exposed on the ground,resulting in significant rupture slip along the Amanos and Pazarcik fault segments of the East Anatolian Fault.The maximum slip in the Pazarcik fault segment was 10.7 m,and rupture occurred at depths of 0–15 km.In the Cardak fault region,the Elbistan earthquake caused significant ruptures at depths of 0–12 km,with the largest amount of slip reaching 11.6 m.The Coulomb stress change caused by the Kahramanmaras earthquake rupture along the Cardak fault segment was approximately 2 bars,and the area of increased Coulomb stress corresponded to the subsequent rupture region of the M_(W)7.6 earthquake.Thus,it is likely that the M_(W)7.8 earthquake triggered or promoted the M_(W)7.6 earthquake.Based on the cumulative stress impact of the M_(W)7.8 and M_(W)7.6 events,the southwestern segment of the East Anatolian Fault,specifically the Amanos fault segment,experienced a Coulomb rupture stress change exceeding 2 bars,warranting further attention to assess its future seismic hazard risk.展开更多
We built a three-dimensional irregular network model which can adequately describe reservoir rock pore-throat structures. We carried out numerical simulations to study the NMR T2 distribution of water-saturated rocks....We built a three-dimensional irregular network model which can adequately describe reservoir rock pore-throat structures. We carried out numerical simulations to study the NMR T2 distribution of water-saturated rocks. The results indicate that there is a good correlation between T2 distribution and the pore radius frequency histogram. The total T2 distribution can be partitioned into pore body and pore throat parts. The effect of parameters including throat radius, pore-throat ratio, and coordination number of the micro- pore structure on the T2 distribution can be evaluated individually. The result indicates that： 1 ） with the increase of the pore throat radius, the T2 distribution moves toward longer relaxation times and its peak intensity increases; 2） with the increase of the pore-throat ratio, the T2 distribution moves towards longer T2 with the peak intensity increasing and the overlap between pore body T2 and pore throat T2 decreasing; 3） With the increase of connectivity, the short T2 component increases and peak signal intensity decreases slightly.展开更多
In order to determine the planar and volume distribution of sand bodies of the Jurassic Badaowan formation in Block T13 of Junggar basin,we used analysis of field outcrop and 3D seismic data,which play an essential ro...In order to determine the planar and volume distribution of sand bodies of the Jurassic Badaowan formation in Block T13 of Junggar basin,we used analysis of field outcrop and 3D seismic data,which play an essential role in areas of sparse well coverage.We describe sedimentary facies characteristics,sand body planforms,width and connectivity patterns of sand bodies,and vertical associations and successions by acoustic impedance inversion technology and sedimentological theory.Results of our study show braided fluvial strata deposits in the Jurassic Badaowan formation.Each sand body is approximately lenticular in shape.The width of each sand body falls in the range 100～800 m,with most between 200 and 400 m.The sand bodies vary in thickness from 4 to 13 m,with most below 9 m.The width/thickness ratios lie in the range 20～55.The connectivity of braided fluvial channel sand bodies is controlled by changes of accommodation space.One fining-upward sedimentary cycle of base-level rise is recognized in Badaowan formation,representing an upward rise of base level.The connectivity of sand bodies was found to be greatest in the early stage of base-level rise,becoming progressively worse with increasing base-level rise.展开更多
The study of plant species abundance distribution(SAD)in natural communities is of considerable importance to understand the processes and ecological rules of community assembly.With the distribution of tree,shrub and...The study of plant species abundance distribution(SAD)in natural communities is of considerable importance to understand the processes and ecological rules of community assembly.With the distribution of tree,shrub and herb layers of eight natural communities of Toona ciliata as research targets,three diff erent ecological niche models were used:broken stick model,overlapping niche model and niche preemption model,as well as three statistical models:log-series distribution model,log-normal distribution model and Weibull distribution model,to fi t SAD of the diff erent vegetation layers based on data collected.Goodness-of-fi t was compared with Chi square test,Kolmogorov–Smirnov(K–S)test and Akaike Information Criterion(AIC).The results show:(1)based on the criteria of the lowest AIC value,Chi square value and K–S value with no signifi cant diff erence(p>0.05)between theoretic and observed SADs.The suitability and goodness-of-fi t of the broken stick model was the best of three ecological niche models.The log-series distribution model did not accept the fi tted results of most vegetation layers and had the lowest goodness-of-fi t.The Weibull distribution model had the best goodness-of-fi t for SADs.Overall,the statistical SADs performed better than the ecological ones.(2)T.ciliata was the dominant species in all the communities;species richness and diversity of herbs were the highest of the vegetation layers,while the diversities of the tree layers were slightly higher than the shrub layers;there were fewer common species and more rare species in the eight communities.The herb layers had the highest community evenness,followed by the shrub and the tree layers.Due to the complexity and habitat diversity of the diff erent T.ciliata communities,comprehensive analyses of a variety of SADs and tests for optimal models together with management,are practical steps to enhance understanding of ecological processes and mechanisms of T.ciliata communities,to detect disturbances,and to facilitate biodiversity and species conservation.展开更多
The 23-year-old T. flousiana plantation and successive rotation plantation of C. lanceolata at Shankou Forest Farm of Nandan County, Guangxi were tested by the method of plot investigation combining with biomass m...The 23-year-old T. flousiana plantation and successive rotation plantation of C. lanceolata at Shankou Forest Farm of Nandan County, Guangxi were tested by the method of plot investigation combining with biomass measurement. Carbon storage and spatial distribution of different components in the two forests were analyzed. The results indicated that carbon content in different organs of T. flousiana ranged from 426.0 to 503.9 g/kg, and the order was bark 〉stem 〉 root 〉 branch 〉 leaf. The carbon contents in shrub, herb and litter layers were452.9 , 408.0 and 428.9 g/kg, respectively. Carbon content in the soil （0 -80 cm）was 16.59 g/kg. The carbon content in different organs of C. lanceolata ranged from 464.5 to 508.9 g/kg, and the order was bark 〉 stem 〉 branch 〉 root 〉 leaf. The carbon contents in shrub, herb and litter layers were 456.2, 416.3 and 468.1 g/kg, respectively. Carbon content in the soil （0 -80 cm）was 15.77 g/kg. Total carbon storage amounts of T. flousiana plantation and successive rotation plantation of C. lanceolata were 245.83 and 213.52 t/hm^2, respectively. The carbon storage order of different structure layers from T. flousiana plantation and successive rotation plantation of C. lanceolata was soil layer （0 -8 0 cm） 〉 vegetation layer 〉 litter layer. Annual net productivity in the arbor layers of T. flousiana plantation and successive rotation plantation of C. lanceolata plantations was 10.75 and 17.13 t/（hm^2 · a） ; annual net carbon fixation amounts were estimated as 5.05 and 3.47 t /（hm^2 · a） ; annual net absorption C02 amounts were 18.53 and 12.73 t/（hm^2 · a） respectively.展开更多
Background:Modeling exchange rate volatility has remained crucially important because of its diverse implications.This study aimed to address the issue of error distribution assumption in modeling and forecasting exch...Background:Modeling exchange rate volatility has remained crucially important because of its diverse implications.This study aimed to address the issue of error distribution assumption in modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility between the Bangladeshi taka(BDT)and the US dollar($).Methods:Using daily exchange rates for 7 years(January 1,2008,to April 30,2015),this study attempted to model dynamics following generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic(GARCH),asymmetric power ARCH(APARCH),exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic(EGARCH),threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic(TGARCH),and integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic(IGARCH)processes under both normal and Student’s t-distribution assumptions for errors.Results and Conclusions:It was found that,in contrast with the normal distribution,the application of Student’s t-distribution for errors helped the models satisfy the diagnostic tests and show improved forecasting accuracy.With such error distribution for out-of-sample volatility forecasting,AR(2)–GARCH(1,1)is considered the best.展开更多
The sea level derived from TOPEX/Poseidon （T/P） altimetry data shows prominent long term trend and inter-annual variability. The global mean sea level rising rate during 1993-2003 was 2.9mm a^-1. The T/P sea level t...The sea level derived from TOPEX/Poseidon （T/P） altimetry data shows prominent long term trend and inter-annual variability. The global mean sea level rising rate during 1993-2003 was 2.9mm a^-1. The T/P sea level trend maps the geographical variability. In the Northern Hemisphere （15°-64°N）, the sea level rise is very fast at the mid-latitude （20°-40°N） but much slower at the high-latitude, for example, only 0.5 mm a^-1 in the latitude band 40°-50°N. In the Southern Hemisphere, the sea level shows high rising rate both in mid-latitude and high-latitude areas, for example, 5.1 mm a^-1 in the band 40°- 50°S. The global thermosteric sea level （TSL） derived from Ishii temperature data was rising during 1993-2003 at a rate of 1.2 mm a^-1 and accounted for more than 40% of the global T/P sea level rise. The contributions of the TSL distribution are not spatially uniform; for instance, the percentage is 67% for the Northern Hemisphere and only 29% for the Southern Hemisphere （15°-64°S） and the maximum thermosteric contribution appears in the Pacific Ocean, which contributes more than 60% of the global TSL. The sea level change trend in tropical ocean is mainly caused by the thermosteric effect, which is different from the case of seasonal variability in this area. The TSL variability dominates the T/P sea level rise in the North Atlantic, but it is small in other areas, and shows negative trend at the high-latitude area （40°-60°N, and 50°-60°S）. The global TSL during 1945-2003 showed obvious rising trend with the rate of about 0.3 mm a-l and striking inter-annual and decadal variability with period of 20 years. In the past 60 years, the Atlantic TSL was rising continuously and remarkably, contributing 38% to the global TSL rising. The TSL in the Pacific and Indian Ocean rose with significant in- ter-annual and decadal variability. The first EOF mode of the global TSL from Ishii temperature data was the ENSO mode in which the time series of the first mode showed steady rising trend. Among the three oceans, the first mode of the Pacific TSL presented the ENSO mode; there was relatively steady rising trend in the Atlantic Ocean, and no dominant mode in the Indian Ocean.展开更多
This paper is focused on the state estimation problem for nonlinear systems with unknown statistics of measurement noise.Based on the cubature Kalman filter,we propose a new nonlinear filtering algorithm that employs ...This paper is focused on the state estimation problem for nonlinear systems with unknown statistics of measurement noise.Based on the cubature Kalman filter,we propose a new nonlinear filtering algorithm that employs a skew t distribution to characterize the asymmetry of the measurement noise.The system states and the statistics of skew t noise distribution,including the shape matrix,the scale matrix,and the degree of freedom(DOF)are estimated jointly by employing variational Bayesian(VB)inference.The proposed method is validated in a target tracking example.Results of the simulation indicate that the proposed nonlinear filter can perform satisfactorily in the presence of unknown statistics of measurement noise and outperform than the existing state-of-the-art nonlinear filters.展开更多
基金Science and Technology Development Fund of Wuhan Institute of Earth Observation,China Earthquake Administration(No.302021-21)Open Fund of Wuhan,Gravitation and Solid Earth Tides,National Observation and Research Station(WHYWZ202218).
文摘On February 6,2023,a devastating earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.8 struck the town of Pazarcik in south-central Türkiye,followed by another powerful earthquake with a moment magnitude of M_(W)7.6 that struck the nearby city of Elbistan 9 h later.To study the characteristics of surface deformation caused by this event and the influence of fault rupture,this study calculated the static coseismic deformation of 56 stations and dynamic displacement waveforms of 15 stations using data from the Turkish national fixed global navigation satellite system(GNSS)network.A maximum static coseismic displacement of 0.38 m for the M_(W)7.8 Kahramanmaras earthquake was observed at station ANTE,36 km from the epicenter,and a maximum dynamic coseismic displacement of 4.4 m for the M_(W)7.6 Elbistan earthquake was observed at station EKZ1,5 km from the epicenter.The rupture-slip distributions of the two earthquakes were inverted using GNSS coseismic deformation as a constraint.The results showed that the Kahramanmaras earthquake rupture segment was distinct and exposed on the ground,resulting in significant rupture slip along the Amanos and Pazarcik fault segments of the East Anatolian Fault.The maximum slip in the Pazarcik fault segment was 10.7 m,and rupture occurred at depths of 0–15 km.In the Cardak fault region,the Elbistan earthquake caused significant ruptures at depths of 0–12 km,with the largest amount of slip reaching 11.6 m.The Coulomb stress change caused by the Kahramanmaras earthquake rupture along the Cardak fault segment was approximately 2 bars,and the area of increased Coulomb stress corresponded to the subsequent rupture region of the M_(W)7.6 earthquake.Thus,it is likely that the M_(W)7.8 earthquake triggered or promoted the M_(W)7.6 earthquake.Based on the cumulative stress impact of the M_(W)7.8 and M_(W)7.6 events,the southwestern segment of the East Anatolian Fault,specifically the Amanos fault segment,experienced a Coulomb rupture stress change exceeding 2 bars,warranting further attention to assess its future seismic hazard risk.
文摘We built a three-dimensional irregular network model which can adequately describe reservoir rock pore-throat structures. We carried out numerical simulations to study the NMR T2 distribution of water-saturated rocks. The results indicate that there is a good correlation between T2 distribution and the pore radius frequency histogram. The total T2 distribution can be partitioned into pore body and pore throat parts. The effect of parameters including throat radius, pore-throat ratio, and coordination number of the micro- pore structure on the T2 distribution can be evaluated individually. The result indicates that： 1 ） with the increase of the pore throat radius, the T2 distribution moves toward longer relaxation times and its peak intensity increases; 2） with the increase of the pore-throat ratio, the T2 distribution moves towards longer T2 with the peak intensity increasing and the overlap between pore body T2 and pore throat T2 decreasing; 3） With the increase of connectivity, the short T2 component increases and peak signal intensity decreases slightly.
基金Financial support for this work,provided by the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2006 CB202300),
文摘In order to determine the planar and volume distribution of sand bodies of the Jurassic Badaowan formation in Block T13 of Junggar basin,we used analysis of field outcrop and 3D seismic data,which play an essential role in areas of sparse well coverage.We describe sedimentary facies characteristics,sand body planforms,width and connectivity patterns of sand bodies,and vertical associations and successions by acoustic impedance inversion technology and sedimentological theory.Results of our study show braided fluvial strata deposits in the Jurassic Badaowan formation.Each sand body is approximately lenticular in shape.The width of each sand body falls in the range 100～800 m,with most between 200 and 400 m.The sand bodies vary in thickness from 4 to 13 m,with most below 9 m.The width/thickness ratios lie in the range 20～55.The connectivity of braided fluvial channel sand bodies is controlled by changes of accommodation space.One fining-upward sedimentary cycle of base-level rise is recognized in Badaowan formation,representing an upward rise of base level.The connectivity of sand bodies was found to be greatest in the early stage of base-level rise,becoming progressively worse with increasing base-level rise.
基金Hubei Provincial Department of Science and Technology,under the public welfare research project[No.402012DBA40001]Hubei Provincial Department of Education,under the scientifi c research project[No.B20160555].
文摘The study of plant species abundance distribution(SAD)in natural communities is of considerable importance to understand the processes and ecological rules of community assembly.With the distribution of tree,shrub and herb layers of eight natural communities of Toona ciliata as research targets,three diff erent ecological niche models were used:broken stick model,overlapping niche model and niche preemption model,as well as three statistical models:log-series distribution model,log-normal distribution model and Weibull distribution model,to fi t SAD of the diff erent vegetation layers based on data collected.Goodness-of-fi t was compared with Chi square test,Kolmogorov–Smirnov(K–S)test and Akaike Information Criterion(AIC).The results show:(1)based on the criteria of the lowest AIC value,Chi square value and K–S value with no signifi cant diff erence(p>0.05)between theoretic and observed SADs.The suitability and goodness-of-fi t of the broken stick model was the best of three ecological niche models.The log-series distribution model did not accept the fi tted results of most vegetation layers and had the lowest goodness-of-fi t.The Weibull distribution model had the best goodness-of-fi t for SADs.Overall,the statistical SADs performed better than the ecological ones.(2)T.ciliata was the dominant species in all the communities;species richness and diversity of herbs were the highest of the vegetation layers,while the diversities of the tree layers were slightly higher than the shrub layers;there were fewer common species and more rare species in the eight communities.The herb layers had the highest community evenness,followed by the shrub and the tree layers.Due to the complexity and habitat diversity of the diff erent T.ciliata communities,comprehensive analyses of a variety of SADs and tests for optimal models together with management,are practical steps to enhance understanding of ecological processes and mechanisms of T.ciliata communities,to detect disturbances,and to facilitate biodiversity and species conservation.
基金Supported by Guangxi Key R&D Plan Project(Guike AB17292008)Guangxi Science Research and Technology Development Plan Program(Guikeneng 1598025-38)Major Science and Technology Project of Guangxi Forestry(Guilin Science Word[2010]No.7)
文摘The 23-year-old T. flousiana plantation and successive rotation plantation of C. lanceolata at Shankou Forest Farm of Nandan County, Guangxi were tested by the method of plot investigation combining with biomass measurement. Carbon storage and spatial distribution of different components in the two forests were analyzed. The results indicated that carbon content in different organs of T. flousiana ranged from 426.0 to 503.9 g/kg, and the order was bark 〉stem 〉 root 〉 branch 〉 leaf. The carbon contents in shrub, herb and litter layers were452.9 , 408.0 and 428.9 g/kg, respectively. Carbon content in the soil （0 -80 cm）was 16.59 g/kg. The carbon content in different organs of C. lanceolata ranged from 464.5 to 508.9 g/kg, and the order was bark 〉 stem 〉 branch 〉 root 〉 leaf. The carbon contents in shrub, herb and litter layers were 456.2, 416.3 and 468.1 g/kg, respectively. Carbon content in the soil （0 -80 cm）was 15.77 g/kg. Total carbon storage amounts of T. flousiana plantation and successive rotation plantation of C. lanceolata were 245.83 and 213.52 t/hm^2, respectively. The carbon storage order of different structure layers from T. flousiana plantation and successive rotation plantation of C. lanceolata was soil layer （0 -8 0 cm） 〉 vegetation layer 〉 litter layer. Annual net productivity in the arbor layers of T. flousiana plantation and successive rotation plantation of C. lanceolata plantations was 10.75 and 17.13 t/（hm^2 · a） ; annual net carbon fixation amounts were estimated as 5.05 and 3.47 t /（hm^2 · a） ; annual net absorption C02 amounts were 18.53 and 12.73 t/（hm^2 · a） respectively.
文摘Background:Modeling exchange rate volatility has remained crucially important because of its diverse implications.This study aimed to address the issue of error distribution assumption in modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility between the Bangladeshi taka(BDT)and the US dollar($).Methods:Using daily exchange rates for 7 years(January 1,2008,to April 30,2015),this study attempted to model dynamics following generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic(GARCH),asymmetric power ARCH(APARCH),exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic(EGARCH),threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic(TGARCH),and integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic(IGARCH)processes under both normal and Student’s t-distribution assumptions for errors.Results and Conclusions:It was found that,in contrast with the normal distribution,the application of Student’s t-distribution for errors helped the models satisfy the diagnostic tests and show improved forecasting accuracy.With such error distribution for out-of-sample volatility forecasting,AR(2)–GARCH(1,1)is considered the best.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No 2007CB411807)the NSFC project (Nos 40976006 and 40906002)+1 种基金the National Key Technology R&D Program (No 2007BAC03A06-06)the project of Key Laboratory of Coastal Disasters and Defence (No 200802)
文摘The sea level derived from TOPEX/Poseidon （T/P） altimetry data shows prominent long term trend and inter-annual variability. The global mean sea level rising rate during 1993-2003 was 2.9mm a^-1. The T/P sea level trend maps the geographical variability. In the Northern Hemisphere （15°-64°N）, the sea level rise is very fast at the mid-latitude （20°-40°N） but much slower at the high-latitude, for example, only 0.5 mm a^-1 in the latitude band 40°-50°N. In the Southern Hemisphere, the sea level shows high rising rate both in mid-latitude and high-latitude areas, for example, 5.1 mm a^-1 in the band 40°- 50°S. The global thermosteric sea level （TSL） derived from Ishii temperature data was rising during 1993-2003 at a rate of 1.2 mm a^-1 and accounted for more than 40% of the global T/P sea level rise. The contributions of the TSL distribution are not spatially uniform; for instance, the percentage is 67% for the Northern Hemisphere and only 29% for the Southern Hemisphere （15°-64°S） and the maximum thermosteric contribution appears in the Pacific Ocean, which contributes more than 60% of the global TSL. The sea level change trend in tropical ocean is mainly caused by the thermosteric effect, which is different from the case of seasonal variability in this area. The TSL variability dominates the T/P sea level rise in the North Atlantic, but it is small in other areas, and shows negative trend at the high-latitude area （40°-60°N, and 50°-60°S）. The global TSL during 1945-2003 showed obvious rising trend with the rate of about 0.3 mm a-l and striking inter-annual and decadal variability with period of 20 years. In the past 60 years, the Atlantic TSL was rising continuously and remarkably, contributing 38% to the global TSL rising. The TSL in the Pacific and Indian Ocean rose with significant in- ter-annual and decadal variability. The first EOF mode of the global TSL from Ishii temperature data was the ENSO mode in which the time series of the first mode showed steady rising trend. Among the three oceans, the first mode of the Pacific TSL presented the ENSO mode; there was relatively steady rising trend in the Atlantic Ocean, and no dominant mode in the Indian Ocean.
基金This work was supported in part by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 62103167 and 61833007in part by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province under Grant BK20210451.
文摘This paper is focused on the state estimation problem for nonlinear systems with unknown statistics of measurement noise.Based on the cubature Kalman filter,we propose a new nonlinear filtering algorithm that employs a skew t distribution to characterize the asymmetry of the measurement noise.The system states and the statistics of skew t noise distribution,including the shape matrix,the scale matrix,and the degree of freedom(DOF)are estimated jointly by employing variational Bayesian(VB)inference.The proposed method is validated in a target tracking example.Results of the simulation indicate that the proposed nonlinear filter can perform satisfactorily in the presence of unknown statistics of measurement noise and outperform than the existing state-of-the-art nonlinear filters.
