The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to m...The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors： 1 ） natural surface and groundwater resources; 2） water demand; 3） the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4） water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.展开更多
Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption struct...Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.展开更多
A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of...A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of existing water utilization, （2） water conservation/saving, and （3） water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.展开更多
System dynamics is a rigorous method for qualitative description,exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information flows, orgaruzational boundaries and strategies, which facilitates ...System dynamics is a rigorous method for qualitative description,exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information flows, orgaruzational boundaries and strategies, which facilitates quantitative modelling and analysis for design of system structure and the improvement of system behaviour. It can be applied to the study of a wide range of systems, and its ability to describe socio-economic characteristics and behaviour makes it suitable for the analysis of the regional development process. Three examples of System Dynamics models are reviewd to demonstrate the suitability of the method for regional analysis, and on the basis of this review the potential use of system dynamics models in China is discussed.展开更多
Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable d...Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable decisions about investment scale and structure in the upstream sector,so that they can minimise business risks and obtain high returns.According to the system dynamics theories and methods and based on the actual results from an oil company＇s practice in China,a system dynamics model is built in this paper for analyzing and forecasting the upstream investment scale and structure for an oil company.This model was used to analyze the investment effect of a large oil company in China, and the results showed that the total upstream investment scale will decline slowly in a short period and the investment proportion of different parts should be adjusted if some influencing factors are taken into account.This application practice was compared with the actual data and indicated that the system dynamics（SD） model presented in this paper is a useful tool for analyzing and forecasting of upstream investment scale and structure of oil companies in their investment decisions.展开更多
The development of oasis along the edge of the Tengerli Desert, where underground water is available, is one of the major strategies to reallocate 'ecological refuges' from their seriously degraded grasslands ...The development of oasis along the edge of the Tengerli Desert, where underground water is available, is one of the major strategies to reallocate 'ecological refuges' from their seriously degraded grasslands to agriculturally cultivable land. Yet, underground water resources, the major constraint, hate not been fully integrated in the development process. Therefore, the decline of water resources and deterioration of water quality caused by over-consumption of water resources has begun to hinder further development and has even fed to the abandonment of some oasis. A system dynamics modeling approach is applied to analyze the water use and water management structures in Yaoba Oasis as a case study. The study attempts to identify the characteristics of major feedback loops, which dominate the over-use of underground water resources leading to the deterioration of water resources in quantity and quality.展开更多
Urban water resources have been facing significant pressure from population growth, urbanization, and climate change. A system dynamics urban water management model was proposed to simulate the dynamic interactions be...Urban water resources have been facing significant pressure from population growth, urbanization, and climate change. A system dynamics urban water management model was proposed to simulate the dynamic interactions between urban water demands and society, economy, climate, and water conservation. The residents＇ water conseration willingness was incorporated in the model and water-saving effects were quantified. The simulation results for Macao showed that population size was the main driving force for urban water demand. The change of temperature and precipitation has obvious effects on the landscape water demand. The water demand output is sensitive to the change in population, per capita demand, and temperature. Increased precipitation will reduce urban water demand and increased economic growth will increase water demand. By implementing integrated water conservation measures and imoroved water conservation willinmaess, water demand could be reduced bv 17.5%.展开更多
It is studied how the aluminum foil chatter mark is produced and controlled The stableness of hydraulic AGC system,fluid vibration of capsule system,and electromechanical coupling of AC/AC VVVF system and de coupli...It is studied how the aluminum foil chatter mark is produced and controlled The stableness of hydraulic AGC system,fluid vibration of capsule system,and electromechanical coupling of AC/AC VVVF system and de coupling are also studied It is shown that rolling mill design should go to system dynamic design from traditional design The framed drawing of system dynamic design program is presented.展开更多
Civil-military inosculation of military enterprises benefits national defense industries by promoting the building of civil-military inosculation innovation system. To analyze the operation mechanism of the civil-mili...Civil-military inosculation of military enterprises benefits national defense industries by promoting the building of civil-military inosculation innovation system. To analyze the operation mechanism of the civil-military integrated innovation system of the military enterprises under the new situation, the system dynamics method is used to study the feedback relations among the factors and structure of the system and the Anylogic software is used to establish the simulation model . The simulation results indicate that： the degree of enthusiasm of private enterprises to participate in the defense industry, the degree of information sharing and the degree of cooperation between the mili- tary enterprises and universities and research institutions are extremely important in the civil-military integrated innovation system. According to the simulation results, some targeted suggestions are put forward to strengthen the innovational civil-military integrated system building of the military enter- prises.展开更多
In real financial markets there are two kinds of traders： one is fundamentalist, and the other is a trend-follower. The mix-game model is proposed to mimic such phenomena. In a mix-game model there are two groups of ...In real financial markets there are two kinds of traders： one is fundamentalist, and the other is a trend-follower. The mix-game model is proposed to mimic such phenomena. In a mix-game model there are two groups of agents： Group 1 plays the majority game and Group 2 plays the minority game. In this paper, we investigate such a case that some traders in real financial markets could change their investment behaviours by assigning the evolutionary abilities to agents： if the winning rates of agents are smaller than a threshold, they will join the other group; and agents will repeat such an evolution at certain time intervals. Through the simulations, we obtain the following findings： （i） the volatilities of systems increase with the increase of the number of agents in Group 1 and the times of behavioural changes of all agents; （ii） the performances of agents in both groups and the stabilities of systems become better if all agents take more time to observe their new investment behaviours; （iii） there are two-phase zones of market and non-market and two-phase zones of evolution and non-evolution; （iv） parameter configurations located within the cross areas between the zones of markets and the zones of evolution are suited for simulating the financial markets.展开更多
System dynamics, founded by professor Forrester at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1956, is a discipline which analyzes and studies the system of information feedback. Basic views of theories of system dynami...System dynamics, founded by professor Forrester at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1956, is a discipline which analyzes and studies the system of information feedback. Basic views of theories of system dynamics distinctively show its dialectical characteristics. More attention should be paid to the features of complicated nonlinear systems. The model simulation of system dynamics is a kind of structure-function simulation. One of the remarkable advantages of system dynamics is that it can handle problems of high order, nonlinear and multiplefeedback system.展开更多
Several research studies have proven that eliciting and predicting the impact of human activity on ecosystem services will be crucial to support stakeholders’ awareness and to decide how to interact with the environm...Several research studies have proven that eliciting and predicting the impact of human activity on ecosystem services will be crucial to support stakeholders’ awareness and to decide how to interact with the environment in a more sustainable manner. In this sense, the ecosystems known as road verges are particularly important because of their length and surface at an international scale, and their role in mitigating the damage done by roads. Plant pollination by insects is one of the most important ecosystem services. Because of its nature and the fact that they extend across a variety of landscapes, roadside can contribute to the maintenance of healthy ecosystems, under the condition of adapted management practices. This research is the first attempt to develop a System Dynamics-based aiming to estimate the ecological and economic impact of maintenance on the road verge pollination service in France. Maintenance strategies of road verges are simulated to compare their performance. The results show that there are ways to improve current maintenance strategies in terms of pollination value, but also that the model needs to consider other ecosystem services and synergistic effects that could further affect pollination to obtain more accurate estimations.展开更多
In this paper, a system dynamics approach is used instead of the traditional approaches to stimulate, forecast and analyze the economic effects of an existing policy practice in Setiu Wetland. As a part of Setiu distr...In this paper, a system dynamics approach is used instead of the traditional approaches to stimulate, forecast and analyze the economic effects of an existing policy practice in Setiu Wetland. As a part of Setiu district that uphold tradition in fishery and maritime based industry, Setiu Wetland area seems to be left behind in terms of economic and livelihood. Generally, Setiu development policy consists of five sub-system including population growth, economic, residential, transportation and sub-urban sprawl. Due to their widespread population distribution, Setiu Wetland receives low urban-related progress. Hence, a forecast of 30 years from 2016 to 2046 providing a necessary insight for potential development of the Setiu Wetland region, to simulate its environment, identify gaps, propose suitable land model towards Setiu Minapolitan area (Peri-urban area) and suggest directions for future studies particularly in economic and livelihood for local authorities to develop with.展开更多
The queueing theory has been used by academicians and practitioners to solve supply chain problems over the years. Here, we propose a system dynamics approach and queuing theory parameters to discover the best method ...The queueing theory has been used by academicians and practitioners to solve supply chain problems over the years. Here, we propose a system dynamics approach and queuing theory parameters to discover the best method to handle the (supply chain) “Waiters” problem via a telecommunication service provider. We developed more than one system dynamics model and introduced the following parameters: the number of times information about registered waiters and the number of days required for procuring and commissioning the (telecommunication) ports are collected in a month. We found the number of waiting times for the customers is reduced and improved when the above-mentioned first parameter is performed more frequently (i.e., more than once).展开更多
Drilling and blasting are the two most significant operations in open pit mines that play a crucial role in downstream stages. While previous research has focused on optimizing these operations as two separate parts o...Drilling and blasting are the two most significant operations in open pit mines that play a crucial role in downstream stages. While previous research has focused on optimizing these operations as two separate parts or merely in a specific parameter, this paper proposes a system dynamic model(SDM) for drilling and blasting operations as an interactive system. In addition, some technical and economic uncertainties such as rock density, uniaxial compressive strength, bit life and operating costs are considered in this system to evaluate the different optimization results. For this purpose, Vensim simulation software is utilized as a powerful dynamic tool for both modelling and optimizing under deterministic and uncertain conditions. It is concluded that an integrated optimization as opposed to the deterministic approach can be efficiently achieved. This however is dependent on the parameters that are considered as uncertainties.展开更多
As part of the global effort to plant billion trees,an afforestation project is launched in Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KP)province to conserve existing forests and to increase area under forest cover.The present s...As part of the global effort to plant billion trees,an afforestation project is launched in Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KP)province to conserve existing forests and to increase area under forest cover.The present study is designed to build a Systems'model by incorporating major activities of the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project(BTTAP)with special focus on afforestation activities to estimate the growth in forest area of KP.Availability of complete dataset was a challenge.To fix the model,the raw data taken from the project office has been utilized.Planning Commission Form 1-Phase I&II helped us with additional information.We relied on the data available for one and half period of the project as rest of the data is subject to the completion of the project.Our results show that the project target to enhance area under forest differs from the target to afforest area under the project.The system dynamics'model projection shows that the forest area of KP would be 23.59 million hectares at the end of the BTTA project,thus having an increase of 3.29%instead of 2%that has been initially proposed.However,the results show that the progress to meet the target in some afforestation classes is slow as compared to other categories.Farm forestry,plantation on communal lands and owners'plantation need special focus of the authority.Deforestation would affect 0.02 million hectares area of the project.The model under study may be used as a reference model that can be replicated to other areas where billion tree campaigns are going on.展开更多
Leachate pollution from landfills is a major source of environmental hazard in many Nigerian municipalities and there is the need to mitigate its effects. The aim of this study is to examine the leachate pollution and...Leachate pollution from landfills is a major source of environmental hazard in many Nigerian municipalities and there is the need to mitigate its effects. The aim of this study is to examine the leachate pollution and determine the effectiveness of liner system in leachate management of dumpsites in Ogbomosoland. The method of modeling us ing principles of system dynamics was employed to determine the interrelationships of leachate generation components for 50 years. Causal loops indicating the linkage of population, economic status, waste generation per capita and weather conditions to wastes and leachate generation were developed. A set of state model equations for Gas Produced (Gp), Precipitation (Pt), Degradation water-loss (Wg), Leachate Quantity (LQn), were formulated. Leachate management strategies of liner systems were studied, and the effectiveness of Compacted Clay (CC), High Density Polyethylene (HDPE), Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE), Geosynthetic Clay (GC), Silt (SI), Sandy loam (SL), and Sand (SA) liners were examined. A user-friendly computer program for estimating leachate generation per time and breakthrough time for liners was then developed. The results showed that a direct relationship exists between leachate and Gp, Pt, Wg and LQn. Average leachate breakthrough times for the liners, in years, were CC (41.5), HDPE (14.0), LDPE (10.0), GC (1.1), SI (0.1), SL (0.01), and SA (0.00002). In conclusion, dumpsite leachate pollution was established as having negative effects on the groundwater resource. Compacted Clay liner is therefore recommended for use in curtailing its menace.展开更多
It has been shown that system dynamics and life-cycle analysis together provide an analytical tool to study different impacts between variables in decision-making process. This paper presents an application of this ap...It has been shown that system dynamics and life-cycle analysis together provide an analytical tool to study different impacts between variables in decision-making process. This paper presents an application of this approach toward to a plastic material of quotidian use, considering both, a production chain using renewable resources and petrochemical production of Polyethylene Terephthalate, used as a beverage bottle application, and showing its impacts to the system when production replacement of non-renewable resources is allowed. We have already studied the substitution between different materials: glass and aluminum.展开更多
This paper analyzes the reasons for the formation of security problems in mobile agent systems, and analyzes and compares the security mechanisms and security technologies of existing mobile agent systems from the per...This paper analyzes the reasons for the formation of security problems in mobile agent systems, and analyzes and compares the security mechanisms and security technologies of existing mobile agent systems from the perspective of blocking attacks. On this basis, the host protection mobile agent protection technology is selected, and a method to enhance the security protection of mobile agents (referred to as IEOP method) is proposed. The method first encrypts the mobile agent code using the encryption function, and then encapsulates the encrypted mobile agent with the improved EOP protocol IEOP, and then traces the suspicious execution result. Experiments show that using this method can block most malicious attacks on mobile agents, and can protect the integrity and confidentiality of mobile agents, but the increment of mobile agent tour time is not large.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB951004)a project of Xinjiang Key Lab of Water Cycle and Utilization in Arid Zone,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences (XJYS0907-2009-02)
文摘The Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, similar to other arid regions, is facing water constraints which challenge decision-makers as to how to rationally allocate the available water resources to meet the demands from industries and natural ecosystems. Policies which integrate the supply and demand are needed to address the water stress issues. An object-oriented system dynamics model was developed to capture the interrelationships between water availability and increasing water demands from the growth of industries, agri- cultural production and the population through modeling the decision-making process of the water exploration ex- plicitly, in which water stress is used as a major indicator. The model is composed of four sectors： 1 ） natural surface and groundwater resources; 2） water demand; 3） the water exploitation process, including the decision to build reservoirs, canals and pumps; 4） water stress to which political and social systems respond through increasing the supply, limiting the growth or improving the water use efficiency. The model was calibrated using data from 1949 to 2009 for population growth, irrigated land area, industry output, perceived water stress, groundwater resources availability and the drying-out process of Manas River; and simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2050 on an annual time step. The comparison of results from calibration and observation showed that the model corresponds to observed behavior, and the simulated values fit the observed data and trends accurately. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model is robust to changes in model parameters related to population growth, land reclamation, pumping capacity and capital contribution to industry development capacity. Six scenarios were designed to inves- tigate the effectiveness of policy options in the area of reservoir relocation, urban water recycling, water demand control and groundwater pumping control. The simulation runs demonstrated that the technical solutions for im- proving water availability and water use efficiency are not sustainable. Acknowledging the carrying capacity of water resources and eliminating a growth-orientated value system are crucial for the sustainability of the Manas River Basin.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 71273021 and 7167030506)
文摘Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.50638020)
文摘A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of existing water utilization, （2） water conservation/saving, and （3） water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.
文摘System dynamics is a rigorous method for qualitative description,exploration and analysis of complex systems in terms of their processes, information flows, orgaruzational boundaries and strategies, which facilitates quantitative modelling and analysis for design of system structure and the improvement of system behaviour. It can be applied to the study of a wide range of systems, and its ability to describe socio-economic characteristics and behaviour makes it suitable for the analysis of the regional development process. Three examples of System Dynamics models are reviewd to demonstrate the suitability of the method for regional analysis, and on the basis of this review the potential use of system dynamics models in China is discussed.
文摘Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable decisions about investment scale and structure in the upstream sector,so that they can minimise business risks and obtain high returns.According to the system dynamics theories and methods and based on the actual results from an oil company＇s practice in China,a system dynamics model is built in this paper for analyzing and forecasting the upstream investment scale and structure for an oil company.This model was used to analyze the investment effect of a large oil company in China, and the results showed that the total upstream investment scale will decline slowly in a short period and the investment proportion of different parts should be adjusted if some influencing factors are taken into account.This application practice was compared with the actual data and indicated that the system dynamics（SD） model presented in this paper is a useful tool for analyzing and forecasting of upstream investment scale and structure of oil companies in their investment decisions.
文摘The development of oasis along the edge of the Tengerli Desert, where underground water is available, is one of the major strategies to reallocate 'ecological refuges' from their seriously degraded grasslands to agriculturally cultivable land. Yet, underground water resources, the major constraint, hate not been fully integrated in the development process. Therefore, the decline of water resources and deterioration of water quality caused by over-consumption of water resources has begun to hinder further development and has even fed to the abandonment of some oasis. A system dynamics modeling approach is applied to analyze the water use and water management structures in Yaoba Oasis as a case study. The study attempts to identify the characteristics of major feedback loops, which dominate the over-use of underground water resources leading to the deterioration of water resources in quantity and quality.
基金supported by the State Key Program of National Natural Science of China (No. 41530635)the MYRG072 (Y1-L2)-FST13-LIC+1 种基金the National Science Foundation of China (No. 51278054)the Fund for Innovative Research Group of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51421065)
文摘Urban water resources have been facing significant pressure from population growth, urbanization, and climate change. A system dynamics urban water management model was proposed to simulate the dynamic interactions between urban water demands and society, economy, climate, and water conservation. The residents＇ water conseration willingness was incorporated in the model and water-saving effects were quantified. The simulation results for Macao showed that population size was the main driving force for urban water demand. The change of temperature and precipitation has obvious effects on the landscape water demand. The water demand output is sensitive to the change in population, per capita demand, and temperature. Increased precipitation will reduce urban water demand and increased economic growth will increase water demand. By implementing integrated water conservation measures and imoroved water conservation willinmaess, water demand could be reduced bv 17.5%.
基金This project is supported by the 9th Five Year Plan (No-95-528-03-02-03c).
文摘It is studied how the aluminum foil chatter mark is produced and controlled The stableness of hydraulic AGC system,fluid vibration of capsule system,and electromechanical coupling of AC/AC VVVF system and de coupling are also studied It is shown that rolling mill design should go to system dynamic design from traditional design The framed drawing of system dynamic design program is presented.
基金Supported by the National Science Foundation of China(91024019)
文摘Civil-military inosculation of military enterprises benefits national defense industries by promoting the building of civil-military inosculation innovation system. To analyze the operation mechanism of the civil-military integrated innovation system of the military enterprises under the new situation, the system dynamics method is used to study the feedback relations among the factors and structure of the system and the Anylogic software is used to establish the simulation model . The simulation results indicate that： the degree of enthusiasm of private enterprises to participate in the defense industry, the degree of information sharing and the degree of cooperation between the mili- tary enterprises and universities and research institutions are extremely important in the civil-military integrated innovation system. According to the simulation results, some targeted suggestions are put forward to strengthen the innovational civil-military integrated system building of the military enter- prises.
基金Project supported by the Scientific Research Foundation for the Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars,State Education Ministry of China
文摘In real financial markets there are two kinds of traders： one is fundamentalist, and the other is a trend-follower. The mix-game model is proposed to mimic such phenomena. In a mix-game model there are two groups of agents： Group 1 plays the majority game and Group 2 plays the minority game. In this paper, we investigate such a case that some traders in real financial markets could change their investment behaviours by assigning the evolutionary abilities to agents： if the winning rates of agents are smaller than a threshold, they will join the other group; and agents will repeat such an evolution at certain time intervals. Through the simulations, we obtain the following findings： （i） the volatilities of systems increase with the increase of the number of agents in Group 1 and the times of behavioural changes of all agents; （ii） the performances of agents in both groups and the stabilities of systems become better if all agents take more time to observe their new investment behaviours; （iii） there are two-phase zones of market and non-market and two-phase zones of evolution and non-evolution; （iv） parameter configurations located within the cross areas between the zones of markets and the zones of evolution are suited for simulating the financial markets.
文摘System dynamics, founded by professor Forrester at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1956, is a discipline which analyzes and studies the system of information feedback. Basic views of theories of system dynamics distinctively show its dialectical characteristics. More attention should be paid to the features of complicated nonlinear systems. The model simulation of system dynamics is a kind of structure-function simulation. One of the remarkable advantages of system dynamics is that it can handle problems of high order, nonlinear and multiplefeedback system.
文摘Several research studies have proven that eliciting and predicting the impact of human activity on ecosystem services will be crucial to support stakeholders’ awareness and to decide how to interact with the environment in a more sustainable manner. In this sense, the ecosystems known as road verges are particularly important because of their length and surface at an international scale, and their role in mitigating the damage done by roads. Plant pollination by insects is one of the most important ecosystem services. Because of its nature and the fact that they extend across a variety of landscapes, roadside can contribute to the maintenance of healthy ecosystems, under the condition of adapted management practices. This research is the first attempt to develop a System Dynamics-based aiming to estimate the ecological and economic impact of maintenance on the road verge pollination service in France. Maintenance strategies of road verges are simulated to compare their performance. The results show that there are ways to improve current maintenance strategies in terms of pollination value, but also that the model needs to consider other ecosystem services and synergistic effects that could further affect pollination to obtain more accurate estimations.
文摘In this paper, a system dynamics approach is used instead of the traditional approaches to stimulate, forecast and analyze the economic effects of an existing policy practice in Setiu Wetland. As a part of Setiu district that uphold tradition in fishery and maritime based industry, Setiu Wetland area seems to be left behind in terms of economic and livelihood. Generally, Setiu development policy consists of five sub-system including population growth, economic, residential, transportation and sub-urban sprawl. Due to their widespread population distribution, Setiu Wetland receives low urban-related progress. Hence, a forecast of 30 years from 2016 to 2046 providing a necessary insight for potential development of the Setiu Wetland region, to simulate its environment, identify gaps, propose suitable land model towards Setiu Minapolitan area (Peri-urban area) and suggest directions for future studies particularly in economic and livelihood for local authorities to develop with.
文摘The queueing theory has been used by academicians and practitioners to solve supply chain problems over the years. Here, we propose a system dynamics approach and queuing theory parameters to discover the best method to handle the (supply chain) “Waiters” problem via a telecommunication service provider. We developed more than one system dynamics model and introduced the following parameters: the number of times information about registered waiters and the number of days required for procuring and commissioning the (telecommunication) ports are collected in a month. We found the number of waiting times for the customers is reduced and improved when the above-mentioned first parameter is performed more frequently (i.e., more than once).
文摘Drilling and blasting are the two most significant operations in open pit mines that play a crucial role in downstream stages. While previous research has focused on optimizing these operations as two separate parts or merely in a specific parameter, this paper proposes a system dynamic model(SDM) for drilling and blasting operations as an interactive system. In addition, some technical and economic uncertainties such as rock density, uniaxial compressive strength, bit life and operating costs are considered in this system to evaluate the different optimization results. For this purpose, Vensim simulation software is utilized as a powerful dynamic tool for both modelling and optimizing under deterministic and uncertain conditions. It is concluded that an integrated optimization as opposed to the deterministic approach can be efficiently achieved. This however is dependent on the parameters that are considered as uncertainties.
文摘As part of the global effort to plant billion trees,an afforestation project is launched in Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa(KP)province to conserve existing forests and to increase area under forest cover.The present study is designed to build a Systems'model by incorporating major activities of the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project(BTTAP)with special focus on afforestation activities to estimate the growth in forest area of KP.Availability of complete dataset was a challenge.To fix the model,the raw data taken from the project office has been utilized.Planning Commission Form 1-Phase I&II helped us with additional information.We relied on the data available for one and half period of the project as rest of the data is subject to the completion of the project.Our results show that the project target to enhance area under forest differs from the target to afforest area under the project.The system dynamics'model projection shows that the forest area of KP would be 23.59 million hectares at the end of the BTTA project,thus having an increase of 3.29%instead of 2%that has been initially proposed.However,the results show that the progress to meet the target in some afforestation classes is slow as compared to other categories.Farm forestry,plantation on communal lands and owners'plantation need special focus of the authority.Deforestation would affect 0.02 million hectares area of the project.The model under study may be used as a reference model that can be replicated to other areas where billion tree campaigns are going on.
文摘Leachate pollution from landfills is a major source of environmental hazard in many Nigerian municipalities and there is the need to mitigate its effects. The aim of this study is to examine the leachate pollution and determine the effectiveness of liner system in leachate management of dumpsites in Ogbomosoland. The method of modeling us ing principles of system dynamics was employed to determine the interrelationships of leachate generation components for 50 years. Causal loops indicating the linkage of population, economic status, waste generation per capita and weather conditions to wastes and leachate generation were developed. A set of state model equations for Gas Produced (Gp), Precipitation (Pt), Degradation water-loss (Wg), Leachate Quantity (LQn), were formulated. Leachate management strategies of liner systems were studied, and the effectiveness of Compacted Clay (CC), High Density Polyethylene (HDPE), Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE), Geosynthetic Clay (GC), Silt (SI), Sandy loam (SL), and Sand (SA) liners were examined. A user-friendly computer program for estimating leachate generation per time and breakthrough time for liners was then developed. The results showed that a direct relationship exists between leachate and Gp, Pt, Wg and LQn. Average leachate breakthrough times for the liners, in years, were CC (41.5), HDPE (14.0), LDPE (10.0), GC (1.1), SI (0.1), SL (0.01), and SA (0.00002). In conclusion, dumpsite leachate pollution was established as having negative effects on the groundwater resource. Compacted Clay liner is therefore recommended for use in curtailing its menace.
文摘It has been shown that system dynamics and life-cycle analysis together provide an analytical tool to study different impacts between variables in decision-making process. This paper presents an application of this approach toward to a plastic material of quotidian use, considering both, a production chain using renewable resources and petrochemical production of Polyethylene Terephthalate, used as a beverage bottle application, and showing its impacts to the system when production replacement of non-renewable resources is allowed. We have already studied the substitution between different materials: glass and aluminum.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (61772196 61472136)+3 种基金the Hunan Provincial Focus Social Science Fund (2016ZDB006)Hunan Provincial Social Science Achievement Review Committee results appraisal identification project (Xiang social assessment 2016JD05)Key Project of Hunan Provincial Social Science Achievement Review Committee (XSP 19ZD1005)the financial support provided by the Key Laboratory of Hunan Province for New Retail Virtual Reality Technology (2017TP1026)
文摘This paper analyzes the reasons for the formation of security problems in mobile agent systems, and analyzes and compares the security mechanisms and security technologies of existing mobile agent systems from the perspective of blocking attacks. On this basis, the host protection mobile agent protection technology is selected, and a method to enhance the security protection of mobile agents (referred to as IEOP method) is proposed. The method first encrypts the mobile agent code using the encryption function, and then encapsulates the encrypted mobile agent with the improved EOP protocol IEOP, and then traces the suspicious execution result. Experiments show that using this method can block most malicious attacks on mobile agents, and can protect the integrity and confidentiality of mobile agents, but the increment of mobile agent tour time is not large.
