Southerly moisture surges over the central South China Sea(SCS)are characterized by the strengthening of lowlevel southerlies that transport moisture northward from the Pacific or Indian Oceans to South China.These su...Southerly moisture surges over the central South China Sea(SCS)are characterized by the strengthening of lowlevel southerlies that transport moisture northward from the Pacific or Indian Oceans to South China.These surge events typically occur for days in the early-summer season(from April to June)and can lead to heavy rains in South China.This study categorizes surge events into three types of flow patterns and examines their multiscale variations and impacts on rainfall.The first type occurs mainly in April,with the southeasterlies enhanced by a deepening trough in South China and the western Pacific subtropical high established over the SCS.The second type of surge events mostly appears in June,featuring the prevailing southwesterlies of summer monsoon from the Indian Ocean during the active phases of intraseasonal oscillations.Most surge events exhibit semi-diurnal variations with morning and afternoon peaks of northward moisture fluxes.Specifically,the first type features a dominant afternoon peak,while the second type shows a dominant early-morning peak,which is induced by thermal contrast between the Indochina Peninsula and the SCS.In general,the surge events enhance moisture convergence and increase rainfall downstream in South China,but they show some regional differences.The second type strengthens moisture convergence and rainfall in coastal regions with a morning peak.In contrast,the first type enhances inland rainfall with a morning peak,while moisture divergence dominates coastal regions.The third type of surge events denotes transitional conditions between the first two types,in terms of atmospheric circulations,diurnal cycles,and rainfall patterns.These results highlight a diversity of regional moisture surges and related rainfall ranging from diurnal to sub-seasonal scales.展开更多
Cold-surge events can lead to temperature drops and strong winds,which then leads to upper-ocean cooling and deepening of the mixed-layer depth,as illustrated in previous studies.In this study,based on the temperature...Cold-surge events can lead to temperature drops and strong winds,which then leads to upper-ocean cooling and deepening of the mixed-layer depth,as illustrated in previous studies.In this study,based on the temperature drop of Shanwei meteorological station,two extreme cold surges and five weak cold invasions in the South China Sea are simulated using an ocean-atmosphere coupled model to investigate their different impacts on the upper-ocean temperature.The diffusion term contributes to the difference in temperature tendency of the upper 20 m,while the advection term contributes to the positive difference from 20 to 80 m of the offshore region and negative difference from 80 to 160 m.In addition,the significant differences are attributed primarily to the influence of the upper-ocean temperature gradient,which subsequently impacts the advection term and results in notable differences in temperature tendency at depths from 80 to 160 m.展开更多
Surge-type glaciers are widely developed in mountainous areas around the world.Understanding the trigger mechanism of glacier surge is a prerequisite for addressing their impacts on hydrological assessments,disentangl...Surge-type glaciers are widely developed in mountainous areas around the world.Understanding the trigger mechanism of glacier surge is a prerequisite for addressing their impacts on hydrological assessments,disentangling climate-glacier linkages,and mitigating downstream hazards.Most glacier surges occur in the compound glaciers;however,attention paid to the trigger mechanisms of such surges is minimal.This study confirmed two surges in the northern and southern branches of the Aru-4 glacier,respectively,in the Western Tibetan Plateau,using multisource remote sensing data.The northern branch of the Aru-4 glacier entered the active phase in 1999 and the active phase lasted for 6 years.The southern branch of the Aru-4 glacier entered the active phase in 2007 and the active phase lasted for 9 years.The southern branch of the Aru-4 glacier experienced a long period of retreat before the northern branch surged and their tongues were in a detached state.The northern branch surge carried a large amount of ice to the frontal area,blocking the downward transport of ice from the southern branch and initiated surge.Through the analysis of two surge processes of Aru-4 glacier,we found a new surge mechanism for compound glaciers.It was revealed that surges in such glaciers are not only triggered by the reduction in basal sliding resistance caused by the internal factors.These surges initiated in the upper part of the glacier then propagated to down glacier by intense compression force.Furthermore,surges can also be triggered by external intervention of blocking by other branches.This external trigger initiates the surge in the lower part of the glacier then propagated to the upper part by longitudinal traction force.In addition,comparing with the surge triggered by the internal factors,the surge triggered by the external intervention may have a more dramatic process.展开更多
The local time-stepping(LTS)algorithm is an adaptive method that adjusts the time step by selecting suitable intervals for different regions based on the spatial scale of each cell and water depth and flow velocity be...The local time-stepping(LTS)algorithm is an adaptive method that adjusts the time step by selecting suitable intervals for different regions based on the spatial scale of each cell and water depth and flow velocity between cells.The method can be optimized by calculating the maximum power of two of the global time step increments in the domain,allowing the optimal time step to be approached throughout the grid.To verify the acceleration and accuracy of LTS in storm surge simulations,we developed a model to simulate astronomical storm surges along the southern coast of China.This model employs the shallow water equations as governing equations,numerical discretization using the finite volume method,and fluxes calculated by the Roe solver.By comparing the simulation results of the traditional global time-stepping algorithm with those of the LTS algorithm,we find that the latter fit the measured data better.Taking the calculation results of Typhoon Sally in 1996 as an example,we show that compared with the traditional global time-stepping algorithm,the LTS algorithm reduces computation time by 2.05 h and increases computation efficiency by 2.64 times while maintaining good accuracy.展开更多
Cold surges(CSs)often occur in the mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and have enormous effects on socioeconomic development.We report that the occurrences of CSs and persistent CSs(PCSs)have rebounded si...Cold surges(CSs)often occur in the mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and have enormous effects on socioeconomic development.We report that the occurrences of CSs and persistent CSs(PCSs)have rebounded since the 1990s,but the trends related to the frequencies of strong CSs(SCSs)and extreme CSs(ECSs)changed from increasing to decreasing after 2000.The highest-ranked model ensemble approach was used to project the occurrences of various CSs under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The frequencies of the total CSs show overall decreasing trends.However,under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,slight increasing trends are noted for SCSs and ECSs in China.Atmospheric circulations that are characterized by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation with a significantly positive 500-hPa geopotential height(Z500)anomaly at high latitudes along with significant negative anomalies in China were favorable for cold air intrusions into China.In addition,the frequencies of all CS types under the SPP5-8.5 scenario greatly decreased in the long term(2071-2100),a finding which is thought to be related to negative SST anomalies in the central and western North Pacific,differences in sea level pressure(SLP)between high-and mid-latitude regions,and a weaker East Asian trough.In terms of ECSs,the decreasing trends observed during the historical period were maintained until 2024 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.Compared to the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the Z500 pattern showed a trend of strengthened ridges over the Ural region and northern East Asia and weakened troughs over Siberia(60°-90°E)under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,contributing to the shift to increasing trends of ECSs after 2014.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to explore how a tropical cyclone forms from a pre-existing large-scale depression which has been observed and associated with cross-equatorial surges in the western North Pacific. Tropica...The purpose of this paper is to explore how a tropical cyclone forms from a pre-existing large-scale depression which has been observed and associated with cross-equatorial surges in the western North Pacific. Tropical cyclone Bilis(2000) was selected as the case to study.The research data used are from the results of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model(MM5),which has successfully simulated the transformation of a pre-existing weak large-scale tropical depression into a strong tropical storm.The scale separation technique is used to separate the synoptic-scale and sub-synoptic-scale fields from the model output fields. The scale-separated fields show that the pre-existing synoptic-scale tropical depression and the subsynoptic scale tropical cyclone formed later were different scale systems from beginning to end.It is also shown that the pre-existing synoptic-scale tropical depression did not contract to become the tropical cyclone. A series of weak,sub-synoptic-scale low and high pressure systems appeared and disappeared in the synopticscale depression,with one of the low systems near the center of the synoptic-scale depression having deepened to become the tropical cyclone. The roles of the synoptic-scale flow and the sub-synoptic scale disturbances in the formation of the tropical cyclone are investigated by diagnoses of the scale-separated vertical vorticity equation.The results show that the early development of the sub-synoptic scale vortex was fundamentally dependent on the strengthening synoptic-scale environmental depression.The depression was strengthened by cross-equatorial surges,which increased the convergence of the synoptic-scale depression at low levels and triggered the formation of the tropical cyclone.展开更多
The author’s combined numerical model consisting of a third generation shallow water wave model and a 3 D tide surge model with wave dependent surface wind stress were used to study the influence of waves on tide sur...The author’s combined numerical model consisting of a third generation shallow water wave model and a 3 D tide surge model with wave dependent surface wind stress were used to study the influence of waves on tide surge motion. For the typical weather case, in this study, the magnitude and mechanism of the influence of waves on tide surges in the Bohai Sea were revealed for the first time. The results showed that although consideration of the wave dependent surface wind stresses raise slightly the traditional surface wind stress, due to the accumulated effects, the computed results are improved on the whole. Storm level maximum modulation can reach 0.4 m. The results computed by the combined model agreed well with the measured data.展开更多
Based on tidal data statistical analysis for 20 years of Tanggu Marine Environmental Monitoring Station from 1991 to 2010, we concluded that an average of nearly 10 days of 100 cm above water increase took place at Ti...Based on tidal data statistical analysis for 20 years of Tanggu Marine Environmental Monitoring Station from 1991 to 2010, we concluded that an average of nearly 10 days of 100 cm above water increase took place at Tianjin coast every year. The maximum high tide and average tide of Tianjin coast occurred in summer and autumn, and the maximum water increase also occurred in summer and autumn. Days with water increase more than 100 cm mostly occurred in spring, autumn and winter. Then we summarized the causes of coastal storm surge disaster in Tianjin based on astronomical tide factors, meteorological factors, sea level rise, land subsidence, and geographic factors, et al. Finally, we proposed storm surge disaster prevention measures.展开更多
Storm surges are one of the most dangerous natural phenomena for the estuary of the Amur River. The generation of surges in this area was investigated by means of a two-dimensional numerical model. The accuracy of the...Storm surges are one of the most dangerous natural phenomena for the estuary of the Amur River. The generation of surges in this area was investigated by means of a two-dimensional numerical model. The accuracy of the numerical calculation was verified by comparison of computed and observed sea levels. A series of numerical experiments was executed to estimate the influence of hypothetical anthropogenic processes on the variation of maximum storm surge heights.展开更多
A combined numerical model of wind, wave, tide, and storm surges was built on the basis of the “wind field model in limited sea surface areas”. When used to forecast the sea surface wind, wave height and water level...A combined numerical model of wind, wave, tide, and storm surges was built on the basis of the “wind field model in limited sea surface areas”. When used to forecast the sea surface wind, wave height and water level, it can describe them very well.展开更多
This study was performed to compare storm surges/tide simulated by the regional and coastal storm surges/tide forecast system （RTSM （regional tide/storm surges model）, CTSM （coastal tide/storm surges model）） usi...This study was performed to compare storm surges/tide simulated by the regional and coastal storm surges/tide forecast system （RTSM （regional tide/storm surges model）, CTSM （coastal tide/storm surges model）） using two different inputs from weather models （RDAPS （Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System） and KWRF （Korea Weather and Research Forecasting）） during two typhoons that occurred between 2007 and 2008. Both the RDAPS and KWRF are the operational weather forecasting system in KMA （Korea Meteorological Administration）. The horizontal resolutions of RDAPS and KWRF are 30 and 10 km, respectively. The storm surges/tide was hind casted using sea wind and pressure fields of two Typhoons which was approaching Korean Peninsula. The CTSM using input from KWRF simulate very well the storm surges/tide pattern in the complex coastal areas. The result showed that the storm surges by the coastal storm surges/tide model with high resolution input was in well agreement with the observed sea level occurred by high tide and storm surges in the coastal areas.展开更多
The Bohai Sea is extremely susceptible to storm surges induced by extratropical storms and tropical cyclones in nearly every season. In order to relieve the impacts of storm surge disasters on structures and human liv...The Bohai Sea is extremely susceptible to storm surges induced by extratropical storms and tropical cyclones in nearly every season. In order to relieve the impacts of storm surge disasters on structures and human lives in coastal regions, it is very important to understand the occurring of the severe storm surges. The previous research is mostly restricted to a single type of storm surge caused by extratropical storm or tropical cyclone. In present paper, a coupled atmosphere-ocean model is developed to study the storm surges induced by two types of extreme weather conditions. Two special cases happened in the Bohai Sea are simulated successively. The wind intensity and minimum sea-level pressure derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model agree well with the observed data. The computed time series of water level obtained from the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) also are in good agreement with the tide gauge observations. The structures of the wind fields and average currents for two types of storm surges are analyzed and compared. The results of coupled model are compared with those from the uncoupled model. The case studies indicate that the wind field and structure of the ocean surface current have great differences between extratropical storm surge and typhoon storm surge. The magnitude of storm surge in the Bohai Sea is shown mainly determined by the ocean surface driving force, but greatly affected by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.展开更多
In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of cold surges in Inner Mongolia between 1960 and 2012 and their possible driving factors using daily minimum temperature data from 121 meteorological stations i...In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of cold surges in Inner Mongolia between 1960 and 2012 and their possible driving factors using daily minimum temperature data from 121 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia and the surrounding areas. These data were analyzed utilizing a piecewise regression model, a Sen＋Mann- Kendall model, and a correlation analysis. Results demonstrated that （1） the frequency of single-station cold surges decreased in Inner Mongolia during the study period, with a linear tendency of -0.5 times/10a （-2.4 to 1.2 times/10a）. Prior to 1991, a significant decreasing trend of-1.1 times/10a （-3.3 to 2.5 times/10a） was detected, while an increasing trend of 0.45 times/10a （-4.4 to 4.2 times/10a） was found after 1991. On a seasonal scale, the trend in spring cold surges was consistent with annual values, and the most obvious change in cold surges occurred during spring. Monthly cold surge frequency displayed a bimodal structure, and November witnessed the highest incidence of cold surge. （2） Spatially, the high incidence of cold surge is mainly observed in the northern and central parts of Inner Mongolia, with a higher occurrence observed in the northern than in the central part. Inter-decadal character- istic also revealed that high frequency and low frequency regions presented decreasing and increasing trends, respectively, between 1960 and 1990. High frequency regions expanded after the 1990s, and regions exhibiting high cold surge frequency were mainly distributed in Tulihe, Xiao＇ergou, and Xi Ujimqin Banner. （3） On an annual scale, the cold surge was dominated by AO, NAO, CA, APVII, and CQ. However, seasonal differences in the driving forces of cold surges were detected. Winter cold surges were significantly correlated with AO, NAO, SHI, CA, TPI, APVII, CW, and IZ, indicating they were caused by multiple factors. Au- tumn cold surges were mainly affected by CA and IM, while spring cold surges were significantly correlated with CA and APVII.展开更多
China experienced significant flooding in the summer of 2020 and multiple extreme cold surges during the winter of 2020/21.Additionally,the 2020 typhoon season had below average activity with especially quiet activity...China experienced significant flooding in the summer of 2020 and multiple extreme cold surges during the winter of 2020/21.Additionally,the 2020 typhoon season had below average activity with especially quiet activity during the first half of the season in the western North Pacific(WNP).Sea surface temperature changes in the Pacific,Indian,and Atlantic Oceans all contributed to the heavy rainfall in China,but the Atlantic and Indian Oceans seem to have played dominant roles.Enhancement and movement of the Siberian High caused a wavier pattern in the jet stream that allowed cold polar air to reach southward,inducing cold surges in China.Large vertical wind shear and low humidity in the WNP were responsible for fewer typhoons in the first half of the typhoon season.Although it is known that global warming can increase the frequency of extreme weather and climate events,its influences on individual events still need to be quantified.Additionally,the extreme cold surge during 16–18 February 2021 in the United States shares similar mechanisms with the winter 2020/21 extreme cold surges in China.展开更多
Seismic surges and landslides are both major secondary mountain hazards during an earthquake. This paper investigates earthquake-and landslide-induced composite surges through largescale shaking table water tank model...Seismic surges and landslides are both major secondary mountain hazards during an earthquake. This paper investigates earthquake-and landslide-induced composite surges through largescale shaking table water tank model experiments. A series of tests were conducted for various initial water depths, peak ground accelerations, slide impact velocities, and slide volumes. Based on the results of the tests, the effects of these parameters on the maximum wave heights of the earthquake-and landslide-induced composite surges were analyzed. An amplification coefficient of seismic surges was defined, and the prediction equation for the amplification coefficient was developed through nondimensional multiple linear regression analysis. Then, an empirical equation for the maximum wave heights of the composite surges was developed based on the amplification coefficient and Demirel's method. This equation provides a calculation method for earthquake-and landslide-induced composite surge waves.展开更多
There are obvious periodic oscillations in the observations of storm surges in the East China Sea . The storm surges are not only controlled by the wind stresses and isolated long wave caused by typhoons but also affe...There are obvious periodic oscillations in the observations of storm surges in the East China Sea . The storm surges are not only controlled by the wind stresses and isolated long wave caused by typhoons but also affected by the interaction between astronomical tides and storm surges . In the present paper we simulate the interaction between tides and storm surges by using a two dimensional numerical model. In our numerical experiments we use the data of the storm surge induced by Typhoon 8114 . The calculations tally with the measured data well. The results indicate that the periodic osculations occurring in the elevations of the surge are mainly caused by the interaction between the tide and the storm surge . The numerical experiments also indicate that the forecasting precision may be notably improved if the nonlinear interaction between tides and storm surges is taken into account.展开更多
Strom surges are not only determined by the atmospheric forcing,but also influenced by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.The Bohai Sea,as one of China’s marginal seas,is seriously harmed by storm surges,especially ...Strom surges are not only determined by the atmospheric forcing,but also influenced by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.The Bohai Sea,as one of China’s marginal seas,is seriously harmed by storm surges,especially those caused by cold-air outbreaks.As the coastline of the Bohai Sea has changed evidently these years,storm surges may have new characteristics due to the changes in the local geometry.This paper aims to find out these new characteristics by primarily investigating the influence of the changes in the local geometry on storm surges with numerical methods.20 scenarios were constructed based on the track and inten-sity of the cold-air outbreaks to describe the actual situation.By analyzing the model results of the control scenarios,it is found that the main changes of the maximum surge elevation occur in the Bohai Bay and the Laizhou Bay.At the top of the Bohai Bay,the maximum surge elevation is obviously decreased,while in the Laizhou Bay,it is enhanced by the growing Yellow River Delta.This,however,does not suggest that the storm surges in the Laizhou Bay become more serious.A comparison of the risk assessment of storm surges in the Tanggu,Huanghua and Yangjiaogou regions shows that the risk of storm surges in these coastal areas is lightened by the evolvement of the coastal geometry.Particularly near Yangjiaogou,though the maximum surge elevation becomes higher to subject more areas to risk,the risk is still reduced by the evolvement of the Yellow River Delta.展开更多
An observational analysis of the structures and characteristics of a windy atmospheric boundary layer during a cold air outbreak in the South China Sea region is reported in this paper. It is found that the main struc...An observational analysis of the structures and characteristics of a windy atmospheric boundary layer during a cold air outbreak in the South China Sea region is reported in this paper. It is found that the main structures and characteristics are the same as during strong wind episodes with cold air outbreaks on land. The high frequency turbulent fluctuations （period 〈 1 min） are nearly random and isotropic with weak coherency, but the gusty wind disturbances （1 rain〈period 〈 10 min） are anisotropic with rather strong coherency. However, in the windy atmospheric boundary layer at sea, compared with that over land, there are some pronounced differences： （1） the average horizontal speed is almost independent of height, and the vertical velocity is positive in the lower marine atmospheric boundary layer; （2） the vertical flux of horizontal momentum is nearly independent of height in the low layer indicating the existence of a constant flux layer, unlike during strong wind over the land surface; （3） the kinetic energy and friction velocity of turbulent fluctuations are larger than those of gusty disturbances; （4） due to the independence of horizontal speed to height, the horizontal speed itself （not its vertical gradient used over the land surface） can be used as the key parameter to parameterize the turbulent and gusty characteristics with high accuracy.展开更多
基金Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42475003)Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(SML2023SP209)。
文摘Southerly moisture surges over the central South China Sea(SCS)are characterized by the strengthening of lowlevel southerlies that transport moisture northward from the Pacific or Indian Oceans to South China.These surge events typically occur for days in the early-summer season(from April to June)and can lead to heavy rains in South China.This study categorizes surge events into three types of flow patterns and examines their multiscale variations and impacts on rainfall.The first type occurs mainly in April,with the southeasterlies enhanced by a deepening trough in South China and the western Pacific subtropical high established over the SCS.The second type of surge events mostly appears in June,featuring the prevailing southwesterlies of summer monsoon from the Indian Ocean during the active phases of intraseasonal oscillations.Most surge events exhibit semi-diurnal variations with morning and afternoon peaks of northward moisture fluxes.Specifically,the first type features a dominant afternoon peak,while the second type shows a dominant early-morning peak,which is induced by thermal contrast between the Indochina Peninsula and the SCS.In general,the surge events enhance moisture convergence and increase rainfall downstream in South China,but they show some regional differences.The second type strengthens moisture convergence and rainfall in coastal regions with a morning peak.In contrast,the first type enhances inland rainfall with a morning peak,while moisture divergence dominates coastal regions.The third type of surge events denotes transitional conditions between the first two types,in terms of atmospheric circulations,diurnal cycles,and rainfall patterns.These results highlight a diversity of regional moisture surges and related rainfall ranging from diurnal to sub-seasonal scales.
基金jointly supported by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number SML2023SP240]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 92158204]。
文摘Cold-surge events can lead to temperature drops and strong winds,which then leads to upper-ocean cooling and deepening of the mixed-layer depth,as illustrated in previous studies.In this study,based on the temperature drop of Shanwei meteorological station,two extreme cold surges and five weak cold invasions in the South China Sea are simulated using an ocean-atmosphere coupled model to investigate their different impacts on the upper-ocean temperature.The diffusion term contributes to the difference in temperature tendency of the upper 20 m,while the advection term contributes to the positive difference from 20 to 80 m of the offshore region and negative difference from 80 to 160 m.In addition,the significant differences are attributed primarily to the influence of the upper-ocean temperature gradient,which subsequently impacts the advection term and results in notable differences in temperature tendency at depths from 80 to 160 m.
基金funded by the Open Research Fund of TPESER(Grant No.TPESER202502)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2024YFF0810700)+3 种基金the Science and Technology Program Project of Gansu Province,China(Grant No.25JRRA138)the Hydraulic Science Experimental Research and Technology Extension Project of Gansu Province,China(Grant No.25GSLK094)the Open Foundation of MOE Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental System,Lanzhou Universitythe Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.1zujbky-2025-jdzx02)。
文摘Surge-type glaciers are widely developed in mountainous areas around the world.Understanding the trigger mechanism of glacier surge is a prerequisite for addressing their impacts on hydrological assessments,disentangling climate-glacier linkages,and mitigating downstream hazards.Most glacier surges occur in the compound glaciers;however,attention paid to the trigger mechanisms of such surges is minimal.This study confirmed two surges in the northern and southern branches of the Aru-4 glacier,respectively,in the Western Tibetan Plateau,using multisource remote sensing data.The northern branch of the Aru-4 glacier entered the active phase in 1999 and the active phase lasted for 6 years.The southern branch of the Aru-4 glacier entered the active phase in 2007 and the active phase lasted for 9 years.The southern branch of the Aru-4 glacier experienced a long period of retreat before the northern branch surged and their tongues were in a detached state.The northern branch surge carried a large amount of ice to the frontal area,blocking the downward transport of ice from the southern branch and initiated surge.Through the analysis of two surge processes of Aru-4 glacier,we found a new surge mechanism for compound glaciers.It was revealed that surges in such glaciers are not only triggered by the reduction in basal sliding resistance caused by the internal factors.These surges initiated in the upper part of the glacier then propagated to down glacier by intense compression force.Furthermore,surges can also be triggered by external intervention of blocking by other branches.This external trigger initiates the surge in the lower part of the glacier then propagated to the upper part by longitudinal traction force.In addition,comparing with the surge triggered by the internal factors,the surge triggered by the external intervention may have a more dramatic process.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52071306)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(No.ZR2019MEE050)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province(No.LZ22E090003).
文摘The local time-stepping(LTS)algorithm is an adaptive method that adjusts the time step by selecting suitable intervals for different regions based on the spatial scale of each cell and water depth and flow velocity between cells.The method can be optimized by calculating the maximum power of two of the global time step increments in the domain,allowing the optimal time step to be approached throughout the grid.To verify the acceleration and accuracy of LTS in storm surge simulations,we developed a model to simulate astronomical storm surges along the southern coast of China.This model employs the shallow water equations as governing equations,numerical discretization using the finite volume method,and fluxes calculated by the Roe solver.By comparing the simulation results of the traditional global time-stepping algorithm with those of the LTS algorithm,we find that the latter fit the measured data better.Taking the calculation results of Typhoon Sally in 1996 as an example,we show that compared with the traditional global time-stepping algorithm,the LTS algorithm reduces computation time by 2.05 h and increases computation efficiency by 2.64 times while maintaining good accuracy.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFF0801703)the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology(Grant No.2022-GS-01)in China.
文摘Cold surges(CSs)often occur in the mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and have enormous effects on socioeconomic development.We report that the occurrences of CSs and persistent CSs(PCSs)have rebounded since the 1990s,but the trends related to the frequencies of strong CSs(SCSs)and extreme CSs(ECSs)changed from increasing to decreasing after 2000.The highest-ranked model ensemble approach was used to project the occurrences of various CSs under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The frequencies of the total CSs show overall decreasing trends.However,under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,slight increasing trends are noted for SCSs and ECSs in China.Atmospheric circulations that are characterized by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation with a significantly positive 500-hPa geopotential height(Z500)anomaly at high latitudes along with significant negative anomalies in China were favorable for cold air intrusions into China.In addition,the frequencies of all CS types under the SPP5-8.5 scenario greatly decreased in the long term(2071-2100),a finding which is thought to be related to negative SST anomalies in the central and western North Pacific,differences in sea level pressure(SLP)between high-and mid-latitude regions,and a weaker East Asian trough.In terms of ECSs,the decreasing trends observed during the historical period were maintained until 2024 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.Compared to the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the Z500 pattern showed a trend of strengthened ridges over the Ural region and northern East Asia and weakened troughs over Siberia(60°-90°E)under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,contributing to the shift to increasing trends of ECSs after 2014.
基金sponsored by the National Program on Key Basic Research Project(973 Program) under Grant No.2009CB421500the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40675026.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to explore how a tropical cyclone forms from a pre-existing large-scale depression which has been observed and associated with cross-equatorial surges in the western North Pacific. Tropical cyclone Bilis(2000) was selected as the case to study.The research data used are from the results of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model(MM5),which has successfully simulated the transformation of a pre-existing weak large-scale tropical depression into a strong tropical storm.The scale separation technique is used to separate the synoptic-scale and sub-synoptic-scale fields from the model output fields. The scale-separated fields show that the pre-existing synoptic-scale tropical depression and the subsynoptic scale tropical cyclone formed later were different scale systems from beginning to end.It is also shown that the pre-existing synoptic-scale tropical depression did not contract to become the tropical cyclone. A series of weak,sub-synoptic-scale low and high pressure systems appeared and disappeared in the synopticscale depression,with one of the low systems near the center of the synoptic-scale depression having deepened to become the tropical cyclone. The roles of the synoptic-scale flow and the sub-synoptic scale disturbances in the formation of the tropical cyclone are investigated by diagnoses of the scale-separated vertical vorticity equation.The results show that the early development of the sub-synoptic scale vortex was fundamentally dependent on the strengthening synoptic-scale environmental depression.The depression was strengthened by cross-equatorial surges,which increased the convergence of the synoptic-scale depression at low levels and triggered the formation of the tropical cyclone.
文摘The author’s combined numerical model consisting of a third generation shallow water wave model and a 3 D tide surge model with wave dependent surface wind stress were used to study the influence of waves on tide surge motion. For the typical weather case, in this study, the magnitude and mechanism of the influence of waves on tide surges in the Bohai Sea were revealed for the first time. The results showed that although consideration of the wave dependent surface wind stresses raise slightly the traditional surface wind stress, due to the accumulated effects, the computed results are improved on the whole. Storm level maximum modulation can reach 0.4 m. The results computed by the combined model agreed well with the measured data.
文摘Based on tidal data statistical analysis for 20 years of Tanggu Marine Environmental Monitoring Station from 1991 to 2010, we concluded that an average of nearly 10 days of 100 cm above water increase took place at Tianjin coast every year. The maximum high tide and average tide of Tianjin coast occurred in summer and autumn, and the maximum water increase also occurred in summer and autumn. Days with water increase more than 100 cm mostly occurred in spring, autumn and winter. Then we summarized the causes of coastal storm surge disaster in Tianjin based on astronomical tide factors, meteorological factors, sea level rise, land subsidence, and geographic factors, et al. Finally, we proposed storm surge disaster prevention measures.
文摘Storm surges are one of the most dangerous natural phenomena for the estuary of the Amur River. The generation of surges in this area was investigated by means of a two-dimensional numerical model. The accuracy of the numerical calculation was verified by comparison of computed and observed sea levels. A series of numerical experiments was executed to estimate the influence of hypothetical anthropogenic processes on the variation of maximum storm surge heights.
基金This work supported by Stress Project(KZ952-S1-420)Chinese Academy of Sciences+1 种基金863 Project(863-818-06-05)(863-818-Q-07).
文摘A combined numerical model of wind, wave, tide, and storm surges was built on the basis of the “wind field model in limited sea surface areas”. When used to forecast the sea surface wind, wave height and water level, it can describe them very well.
文摘This study was performed to compare storm surges/tide simulated by the regional and coastal storm surges/tide forecast system （RTSM （regional tide/storm surges model）, CTSM （coastal tide/storm surges model）） using two different inputs from weather models （RDAPS （Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System） and KWRF （Korea Weather and Research Forecasting）） during two typhoons that occurred between 2007 and 2008. Both the RDAPS and KWRF are the operational weather forecasting system in KMA （Korea Meteorological Administration）. The horizontal resolutions of RDAPS and KWRF are 30 and 10 km, respectively. The storm surges/tide was hind casted using sea wind and pressure fields of two Typhoons which was approaching Korean Peninsula. The CTSM using input from KWRF simulate very well the storm surges/tide pattern in the complex coastal areas. The result showed that the storm surges by the coastal storm surges/tide model with high resolution input was in well agreement with the observed sea level occurred by high tide and storm surges in the coastal areas.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41372173 and 51609244the Geological Survey Projects of China Geological Survey under contract No.121201006000182401
文摘The Bohai Sea is extremely susceptible to storm surges induced by extratropical storms and tropical cyclones in nearly every season. In order to relieve the impacts of storm surge disasters on structures and human lives in coastal regions, it is very important to understand the occurring of the severe storm surges. The previous research is mostly restricted to a single type of storm surge caused by extratropical storm or tropical cyclone. In present paper, a coupled atmosphere-ocean model is developed to study the storm surges induced by two types of extreme weather conditions. Two special cases happened in the Bohai Sea are simulated successively. The wind intensity and minimum sea-level pressure derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model agree well with the observed data. The computed time series of water level obtained from the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) also are in good agreement with the tide gauge observations. The structures of the wind fields and average currents for two types of storm surges are analyzed and compared. The results of coupled model are compared with those from the uncoupled model. The case studies indicate that the wind field and structure of the ocean surface current have great differences between extratropical storm surge and typhoon storm surge. The magnitude of storm surge in the Bohai Sea is shown mainly determined by the ocean surface driving force, but greatly affected by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.
基金Major Project of High-resolution Earth Observation System
文摘In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of cold surges in Inner Mongolia between 1960 and 2012 and their possible driving factors using daily minimum temperature data from 121 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia and the surrounding areas. These data were analyzed utilizing a piecewise regression model, a Sen＋Mann- Kendall model, and a correlation analysis. Results demonstrated that （1） the frequency of single-station cold surges decreased in Inner Mongolia during the study period, with a linear tendency of -0.5 times/10a （-2.4 to 1.2 times/10a）. Prior to 1991, a significant decreasing trend of-1.1 times/10a （-3.3 to 2.5 times/10a） was detected, while an increasing trend of 0.45 times/10a （-4.4 to 4.2 times/10a） was found after 1991. On a seasonal scale, the trend in spring cold surges was consistent with annual values, and the most obvious change in cold surges occurred during spring. Monthly cold surge frequency displayed a bimodal structure, and November witnessed the highest incidence of cold surge. （2） Spatially, the high incidence of cold surge is mainly observed in the northern and central parts of Inner Mongolia, with a higher occurrence observed in the northern than in the central part. Inter-decadal character- istic also revealed that high frequency and low frequency regions presented decreasing and increasing trends, respectively, between 1960 and 1990. High frequency regions expanded after the 1990s, and regions exhibiting high cold surge frequency were mainly distributed in Tulihe, Xiao＇ergou, and Xi Ujimqin Banner. （3） On an annual scale, the cold surge was dominated by AO, NAO, CA, APVII, and CQ. However, seasonal differences in the driving forces of cold surges were detected. Winter cold surges were significantly correlated with AO, NAO, SHI, CA, TPI, APVII, CW, and IZ, indicating they were caused by multiple factors. Au- tumn cold surges were mainly affected by CA and IM, while spring cold surges were significantly correlated with CA and APVII.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41731173)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2019YFA0606701)+2 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.XDB42000000 and XDA20060502)the Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou)(Grant No.GML2019ZD0306)the Innovation Academy of South China Sea Ecology and Environmental Engineering,the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.ISEE2018PY06)。
文摘China experienced significant flooding in the summer of 2020 and multiple extreme cold surges during the winter of 2020/21.Additionally,the 2020 typhoon season had below average activity with especially quiet activity during the first half of the season in the western North Pacific(WNP).Sea surface temperature changes in the Pacific,Indian,and Atlantic Oceans all contributed to the heavy rainfall in China,but the Atlantic and Indian Oceans seem to have played dominant roles.Enhancement and movement of the Siberian High caused a wavier pattern in the jet stream that allowed cold polar air to reach southward,inducing cold surges in China.Large vertical wind shear and low humidity in the WNP were responsible for fewer typhoons in the first half of the typhoon season.Although it is known that global warming can increase the frequency of extreme weather and climate events,its influences on individual events still need to be quantified.Additionally,the extreme cold surge during 16–18 February 2021 in the United States shares similar mechanisms with the winter 2020/21 extreme cold surges in China.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41571004)National Program on Key Research Project of China (Grant No. 2016YFC0802206)
文摘Seismic surges and landslides are both major secondary mountain hazards during an earthquake. This paper investigates earthquake-and landslide-induced composite surges through largescale shaking table water tank model experiments. A series of tests were conducted for various initial water depths, peak ground accelerations, slide impact velocities, and slide volumes. Based on the results of the tests, the effects of these parameters on the maximum wave heights of the earthquake-and landslide-induced composite surges were analyzed. An amplification coefficient of seismic surges was defined, and the prediction equation for the amplification coefficient was developed through nondimensional multiple linear regression analysis. Then, an empirical equation for the maximum wave heights of the composite surges was developed based on the amplification coefficient and Demirel's method. This equation provides a calculation method for earthquake-and landslide-induced composite surge waves.
文摘There are obvious periodic oscillations in the observations of storm surges in the East China Sea . The storm surges are not only controlled by the wind stresses and isolated long wave caused by typhoons but also affected by the interaction between astronomical tides and storm surges . In the present paper we simulate the interaction between tides and storm surges by using a two dimensional numerical model. In our numerical experiments we use the data of the storm surge induced by Typhoon 8114 . The calculations tally with the measured data well. The results indicate that the periodic osculations occurring in the elevations of the surge are mainly caused by the interaction between the tide and the storm surge . The numerical experiments also indicate that the forecasting precision may be notably improved if the nonlinear interaction between tides and storm surges is taken into account.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Pillar Program during China's Eleventh Five-Year Plan Period (2006BAC03B01)
文摘Strom surges are not only determined by the atmospheric forcing,but also influenced by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.The Bohai Sea,as one of China’s marginal seas,is seriously harmed by storm surges,especially those caused by cold-air outbreaks.As the coastline of the Bohai Sea has changed evidently these years,storm surges may have new characteristics due to the changes in the local geometry.This paper aims to find out these new characteristics by primarily investigating the influence of the changes in the local geometry on storm surges with numerical methods.20 scenarios were constructed based on the track and inten-sity of the cold-air outbreaks to describe the actual situation.By analyzing the model results of the control scenarios,it is found that the main changes of the maximum surge elevation occur in the Bohai Bay and the Laizhou Bay.At the top of the Bohai Bay,the maximum surge elevation is obviously decreased,while in the Laizhou Bay,it is enhanced by the growing Yellow River Delta.This,however,does not suggest that the storm surges in the Laizhou Bay become more serious.A comparison of the risk assessment of storm surges in the Tanggu,Huanghua and Yangjiaogou regions shows that the risk of storm surges in these coastal areas is lightened by the evolvement of the coastal geometry.Particularly near Yangjiaogou,though the maximum surge elevation becomes higher to subject more areas to risk,the risk is still reduced by the evolvement of the Yellow River Delta.
基金supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (NSFC, Grant Nos. 40830103 and 41375018)a National Program on Key Basic Research project (973 Program) (Grant No. 2010CB951804)+2 种基金the plan of the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. LAPC-KF-2013-11)China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Grant No. GYHY200906008)the program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA10010403)
文摘An observational analysis of the structures and characteristics of a windy atmospheric boundary layer during a cold air outbreak in the South China Sea region is reported in this paper. It is found that the main structures and characteristics are the same as during strong wind episodes with cold air outbreaks on land. The high frequency turbulent fluctuations （period 〈 1 min） are nearly random and isotropic with weak coherency, but the gusty wind disturbances （1 rain〈period 〈 10 min） are anisotropic with rather strong coherency. However, in the windy atmospheric boundary layer at sea, compared with that over land, there are some pronounced differences： （1） the average horizontal speed is almost independent of height, and the vertical velocity is positive in the lower marine atmospheric boundary layer; （2） the vertical flux of horizontal momentum is nearly independent of height in the low layer indicating the existence of a constant flux layer, unlike during strong wind over the land surface; （3） the kinetic energy and friction velocity of turbulent fluctuations are larger than those of gusty disturbances; （4） due to the independence of horizontal speed to height, the horizontal speed itself （not its vertical gradient used over the land surface） can be used as the key parameter to parameterize the turbulent and gusty characteristics with high accuracy.
