It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the sol...It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the solar dynamo of simulation and space mission planning. In this paper, we employ the long-shortterm memory(LSTM) and neural network autoregression(NNAR) deep learning methods to predict the upcoming 25 th solar cycle using the sunspot area(SSA) data during the period of May 1874 to December2020. Our results show that the 25 th solar cycle will be 55% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with a maximum sunspot area of 3115±401 and the cycle reaching its peak in October 2022 by using the LSTM method. It also shows that deep learning algorithms perform better than the other commonly used methods and have high application value.展开更多
A detailed case study of γ-hadron segregation for a ground based atmo- spheric Cherenkov telescope is presented. We have evaluated and compared various supervised machine learning methods such as the Random Forest me...A detailed case study of γ-hadron segregation for a ground based atmo- spheric Cherenkov telescope is presented. We have evaluated and compared various supervised machine learning methods such as the Random Forest method, Artificial Neural Network, Linear Discriminant method, Naive Bayes Classifiers, Support Vector Machines as well as the conventional dynamic supercut method by simulating triggering events with the Monte Carlo method and applied the results to a Cherenkov telescope. It is demonstrated that the Random Forest method is the most sensitive machine learning method for γ-hadron segregation.展开更多
A lunar occultation （LO） technique in the near-infrared （NIR） provides angular resolution down to milliarcseconds for an occulted source, even with ground- based 1 m class telescopes. LO observations are limited t...A lunar occultation （LO） technique in the near-infrared （NIR） provides angular resolution down to milliarcseconds for an occulted source, even with ground- based 1 m class telescopes. LO observations are limited to brighter objects because they require a high signal-to-noise ratio （S/N ~40） for proper extraction of angular diameter values. Hence, methods to improve the S/N ratio by reducing noise using Fourier and wavelet transforms have been explored in this study. A sample of 54 NIR LO light curves observed with the IR camera at Mt Abu Observatory has been used. It is seen that both Fourier and wavelet methods have shown an improvement in S/N compared to the original data. However, the application of wavelet transforms causes a slight smoothing of the fringes and results in a higher value for angular diameter. Fourier transforms which reduce discrete noise frequencies do not distort the fringe. The Fourier transform method seems to be effective in improving the S/N, as well as improving the model fit, particularly in the fainter regime of our sample. These methods also provide a better model fit for brighter sources in some cases, though there may not be a significant imorovement in S/N.展开更多
The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator,which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone,is one of the crucial observational bases for the...The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator,which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone,is one of the crucial observational bases for the solar dynamo to generate a magnetic field by shearing of the pre-existing poloidal magnetic field through differential rotation.The Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices（ESAI）elongated the Greenwich observation record of sunspots by several decades in the past.In this study,ESAI＇s yearly mean latitude of sunspots in the northern and southern hemispheres during the years 1854 to 1985 is utilized to statistically test whether hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle is linear or nonlinear.It is found that a quadratic function is statistically significantly better at describing hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle than a linear function.In addition,the latitude migration velocity of sunspots in a solar cycle decreases as the cycle progresses,providing a particular constraint for solar dynamo models.Indeed,the butterfly wing pattern with a faster latitudinal migration rate should present stronger solar activity with a shorter cycle period,and it is located at higher latitudinal position,giving evidence to support the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism.展开更多
The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthl...The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthly mean Group sunspot numbers available since 1610. A running average method is proposed to predict the size and length of a solar cycle by the use of the varying trend of the coefficients. It is found that, when a condition （that the correlation becomes stronger） is satisfied, the mean prediction error （16.1） is much smaller than when the condition is not satisfied （38.7）. This result can be explained by the fact that the prediction must fall on the regression line and increase the strength of the correlation. The method itself can also indicate whether the prediction is reasonable or not. To obtain a reasonable prediction, it is more important to search for a running correlation coefficient whose varying trend satisfies the proposed condition, and the result does not depend so much on the size of the correlation coefficient. As an application, the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 is estimated as 140.4 ± 15.7, and the peak as May 2012 ±11 months.展开更多
The 10.7 cm solar radio flux （F10.7）, the value of the solar radio emission flux density at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, is a useful index of solar activity as a proxy for solar extreme ultraviolet radiation. It is mean...The 10.7 cm solar radio flux （F10.7）, the value of the solar radio emission flux density at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, is a useful index of solar activity as a proxy for solar extreme ultraviolet radiation. It is meaningful and important to predict F10.7 values accurately for both long-term （months-years） and short-term （days） forecasting, which are often used as inputs in space weather models. This study applies a novel neural network technique, support vector regression （SVR）, to forecasting daily values of F10.7. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of SVR in short-term F10.7 forecasting. The approach, based on SVR, reduces the dimension of feature space in the training process by using a kernel-based learning algorithm. Thus, the complexity of the calculation becomes lower and a small amount of training data will be sufficient. The time series of F10.7 from 2002 to 2006 are employed as the data sets. The performance of the approach is estimated by calculating the norm mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It is shown that our approach can perform well by using fewer training data points than the traditional neural network.展开更多
We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the ampli...We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the amplitudes of the three periods is studied. The results show that around 1750 and 1800, the amplitude of the 53-yr period was much higher than that of the the 11-yr period, that the ca. 53-yr period was apparent only for the interval from 1725 to 1850, and was very low after 1850, that around 1750, 1800 and 1900, the amplitude of the 101-yr period was higher than that of the 11-yr period and that, from 1940 to 2000, the 11-yr period greatly dominates over the other two periods.展开更多
Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are proposed to investigate the phase relationship between the monthly sunspot group numbers in the solar northern and southern hemispheres. It is found that （...Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are proposed to investigate the phase relationship between the monthly sunspot group numbers in the solar northern and southern hemispheres. It is found that （1） the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere begin two months earlier than those in the southern one, which should lead to phase asynchrony between them but with a slight effect; （2） the Schwabe cycle length for the monthly sunspot group numbers in the two hemispheres obviously differs from each other, and the mean Schwabe cycle length of the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere is slightly larger than that in the southern one; （3） the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere precede those in the southern hemisphere during the years of about 1874- 1927, after which, the southern hemisphere leads the northern hemisphere in the years 1928-1964, and then the northern hemisphere leads in time till the present.展开更多
Data analysis of sunspot oscillations based on a 6-hr SDO run of an observation showed that low frequency （0.2 〈ω 〈 1 mHz） oscillations are locally similar to three and five minute oscillations. The oscillations ...Data analysis of sunspot oscillations based on a 6-hr SDO run of an observation showed that low frequency （0.2 〈ω 〈 1 mHz） oscillations are locally similar to three and five minute oscillations. The oscillations in the sunspot are concentrated in cells of a few arcsec, each of which has its own oscillation spectrum. The analysis of two scenarios for sunspot oscillations leads to a conclusion that local sunspot oscillations occur due to a subphotospheric resonator for slow MHD waves. Empirical models of a sunspot atmosphere and the theory of slow waves in thin magnetic flux tubes are applied to modeling the subphotospheric resonator. The spectrum of local oscillations consists of a great number of lines. This kind of spectrum can occur only if the subphotospheric resonator is a magnetic tube with a rather weak magnetic field. Magnetic tubes of this sort are umbral dots that appear due to the convective tongues in monolithic sunspots. The interrelation of local oscillations with umbral dots and wavefronts of traveling waves in sunspots is discussed.展开更多
We reconstruct the developing history of solar 10.7 cm radio flux （F10.7） since 1848, based on the yearly sunspot number and the variations. A relationship between the maximum and the linear regression slope of the ...We reconstruct the developing history of solar 10.7 cm radio flux （F10.7） since 1848, based on the yearly sunspot number and the variations. A relationship between the maximum and the linear regression slope of the first 3 years starting from minimum of the solar cycle is considered. We put forward a method of predicting the maximum of F10.7 by means of the slope-maximum relationship. Running tests for cycles 19 to 23 indicate that the method can properly predict the peak of F10.7.展开更多
A sunspot is an ideal waveguide for a variety of magnetohydrodynamic waves,which carry a significant amount of energy to the upper atmosphere and could be used as a tool to probe the magnetic and thermal structure of ...A sunspot is an ideal waveguide for a variety of magnetohydrodynamic waves,which carry a significant amount of energy to the upper atmosphere and could be used as a tool to probe the magnetic and thermal structure of a sunspot.In this study,we used the New Vacuum Solar Telescope and took highresolution image sequences simultaneously in both Ti O(7058±10?A)and Hα(6562±2.5?A)bandpasses.We extracted the area and total emission intensity variations of sunspot umbra and analyzed the signals with synchrosqueezing transform.We found that the area and emission intensity varied with both three and five minute periodicity.Moreover,the area and intensity oscillated in phase with each other,this fact hold in both Ti O and Hαdata.We interpret this oscillatory signal as a propagating slow sausage wave.The propagation speed is estimated at about 8 km s^-1.We infer that this sunspot's umbra could have temperature as low as 2800–3500 K.展开更多
The terrain camera （TCAM） and panoramic camera （PCAM） are two of the major scientific payloads installed on the lander and rover of the Chang＇e 3 mission re- spectively. They both use a Bayer color filter array c...The terrain camera （TCAM） and panoramic camera （PCAM） are two of the major scientific payloads installed on the lander and rover of the Chang＇e 3 mission re- spectively. They both use a Bayer color filter array covering CMOS sensor to capture color images of the Moon＇s surface. RGB values of the original images are related to these two kinds of cameras. There is an obvious color difference compared with human visual perception. This paper follows standards published by the International Commission on Illumination to establish a color correction model, designs the ground calibration experiment and obtains the color correction coefficient. The image qual- ity has been significantly improved and there is no obvious color difference in the corrected images. Ground experimental results show that： （1） Compared with uncor- rected images, the average color difference of TCAM is 4.30, which has been reduced by 62.1%. （2） The average color differences of the left and right cameras in PCAM are 4.14 and 4.16, which have been reduced by 68.3% and 67.6% respectively.展开更多
It is widely believed that the evolution of solar active regions leads to solar flares. However, information about the evolution of solar active regions is not employed in most existing solar flare forecasting models....It is widely believed that the evolution of solar active regions leads to solar flares. However, information about the evolution of solar active regions is not employed in most existing solar flare forecasting models. In the current work, a short- term solar flare forecasting model is proposed, in which sequential sunspot data, in- cluding three days of information about evolution from active regions, are taken as one of the basic predictors. The sunspot area, the Mclntosh classification, the mag- netic classification and the radio flux are extracted and converted to a numerical for- mat that is suitable for the current forecasting model. Based on these parameters, the sliding-window method is used to form the sequential data by adding three days of information about evolution. Then, multi-layer perceptron and learning vector quanti- zation are employed to predict the flare level within 48 h. Experimental results indicate that the performance of the proposed flare forecasting model works better than previ- ous models.展开更多
The concept of degree of similarity （η）, is proposed to quantitatively describe the similarity of a parameter （e.g. the maximum amplitude Rmax） of a solar cycle relative to a referenced one, and the prediction me...The concept of degree of similarity （η）, is proposed to quantitatively describe the similarity of a parameter （e.g. the maximum amplitude Rmax） of a solar cycle relative to a referenced one, and the prediction method of similar cycles is further developed. For two parameters, the solar minimum （Rmin） and rising rate （βa）, which can be directly measured a few months after the minimum, a synthesis degree of similarity （ηs） is defined as the weighted-average of the η values around Rmin and βa, with the weights given by the coefficients of determination of Rmax with Rmin and βa, respectively. The monthly values of the whole referenced cycle can be predicted by averaging the corresponding values in the most similar cycles with the weights given by the ηs values. As an application, Cycle 24 is predicted to peak around January 2013 i8 （month） with a size of about Rmax = 84 ± 17 and to end around September 2019.展开更多
We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultane- ous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo ...We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultane- ous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results： （a） fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; （b） both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; （c） distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; （d） the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and the average duration of grand minima, with a coherence time of about 30 yr being consistent with observational data. We also study the occurrence of grand maxima and find that the distributions of durations and waiting times between grand maxima are also exponential, like the grand minima. Finally we address the question of whether the Babcock-Leighton mechanism can be operative during grand minima when there are no sunspots. We show that an a-effect restricted to the upper portions of the convection zone can pull the dynamo out of the grand minima and can match various observational requirements if the amplitude of this a-effect is suitably fine-tuned.展开更多
PLS （Partial Least Squares regression） is introduced into an automatic estimation of fundamental stellar spectral parameters. It extracts the most correlative spectral component to the parameters （Teff, log g and [...PLS （Partial Least Squares regression） is introduced into an automatic estimation of fundamental stellar spectral parameters. It extracts the most correlative spectral component to the parameters （Teff, log g and [Fe/H]）, and sets up a linear regression function from spectra to the corresponding parameters. Considering the properties of stellar spectra and the PLS algorithm, we present a piecewise PLS regression method for estimation of stellar parameters, which is composed of one PLS model for Teff, and seven PLS models for log g and [Fe/H] estimation. Its performance is investigated by large experiments on flux calibrated spectra and continuum normalized spectra at different signal-to-noise ratios （SNRs） and resolutions. The results show that the piecewise PLS method is robust for spectra at the medium resolution of 0.23 nm. For low resolution 0.5 nm and 1 nm spectra, it achieves competitive results at higher SNR. Experiments using ELODIE spectra of 0.23 nm resolution illustrate that our piecewise PLS models trained with MILES spectra are efficient for O ～ G stars： for flux calibrated spectra, the systematic offsets are 3.8%, 0.14 dex, and -0.09 dex for Teff, log g and [Fe/H], with error scatters of 5.2%, 0.44 dex and 0.38 dex, respectively; for continuum normalized spectra, the systematic offsets are 3.8%, 0.12dex, and -0.13 dex for Teff, log g and [Fe/H], with error scatters of 5.2%, 0.49 dex and 0.41 dex, respectively. The PLS method is rapid, easy to use and does not rely as strongly on the tightness of a parameter grid of templates to reach high precision as Artificial Neural Networks or minimum distance methods do.展开更多
We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light （WL） associated with major flares. We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon...We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light （WL） associated with major flares. We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon. In total, we investigate 403 events from 1998 May 9 to 2004 July 17, including 40 X-class, 174 M-class, and 189 C-class flares. By monitoring the structure of the flaring active regions using the WL observations from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer （TRACE）, we find that segments in the outer sunspot structure decayed rapidly right after many flares; and that, on the other hand, the central part of sunspots near the flare-associated magnetic neutral line became darkened. These rapid and permanent changes are evidenced in the time profiles of WL mean intensity and are not likely resulted from the flare emissions. Our study further shows that the outer sunspot structure decay as well as the central structure darkening are more likely to be detected in larger solar flares. For X-class flares, over 40% events show distinct sunspot structure change. For M- and C-class flares, this percentage drops to 17% and 10%, respectively. The results of this statistical study support our previously proposed reconnection picture, i.e., the flare-related magnetic fields evolve from a highly inclined to a more vertical configuration.展开更多
Effective extraction of data association rules can provide a reliable basis for classification of stellar spectra. The concept of stellar spectrum weighted itemsets and stellar spectrum weighted association rules are ...Effective extraction of data association rules can provide a reliable basis for classification of stellar spectra. The concept of stellar spectrum weighted itemsets and stellar spectrum weighted association rules are introduced, and the weight of a single property in the stellar spectrum is determined by information entropy. On that basis, a method is presented to mine the association rules of a stellar spectrum based on the weighted frequent pattern tree. Important properties of the spectral line are highlighted using this method. At the same time, the waveform of the whole spectrum is taken into account. The experimental results show that the data association rules of a stellar spectrum mined with this method are consistent with the main features of stellar spectral types.展开更多
A method is developed to calculate probability of collision. Based on geometric features of space objects during the encounter, it is reasonable to separate the radial orbital motions from those in the cross section f...A method is developed to calculate probability of collision. Based on geometric features of space objects during the encounter, it is reasonable to separate the radial orbital motions from those in the cross section for most encounter events that occur in a near-circular orbit. Therefore, the probability of collision caused by differences in both altitude of the orbit in the radial direction and the probability of collision caused by differences in arrival time in the cross section are calculated. The net probability of collision is expressed as an explicit expression by multiplying the above two components. Numerical cases are applied to test this method by comparing the results with the general method. The results indicate that this method is valid for most encounter events that occur in near-circular orbits.展开更多
Based on years of input from the four geodetic techniques （SLR, GPS, VLBI and DORIS）, the strategies of the combination were studied in SHAO to generate a new global terrestrial reference frame as the material reali...Based on years of input from the four geodetic techniques （SLR, GPS, VLBI and DORIS）, the strategies of the combination were studied in SHAO to generate a new global terrestrial reference frame as the material realization of the ITRS defined in IERS Conventions. The main input includes the time series of weekly solutions （or fortnightly for SLR 1983-1993） of observational data for satellite techniques and session-wise normal equations for VLBI. The set of estimated unknowns includes 3- dimensional Cartesian coordinates at the reference epoch 2005.0 of the stations distributed globally and their rates as well as the time series of consistent Earth Orientation Parameters （EOPs） at the same epochs as the input. Besides the final solution, namely SOL-2, generated by using all the inputs before 2015.0 obtained from short-term observation processing, another reference solution, namely SOL- 1, was also computed by using the input before 2009.0 based on the same combination of procedures for the purpose of comparison with ITRF2008 and DTRF2008 and for evaluating the effect of the latest six more years of data on the combined results. The estimated accuracy of the x-component and y-component of the SOL- 1 TRF-origin was better than 0.1 mm at epoch 2005.0 and better than 0.3 mm yr- 1 in time evolution, either compared with ITRF2008 or DTRF2008. However, the z-component of the translation parameters from SOL-1 to ITRF2008 and DTRF2008 were 3.4 mm and -1.0 ram, respectively. It seems that the z-component of the SOL-1 TRF-origin was much closer to the one in DTRF2008 than the one in ITRF2008. The translation parameters from SOL-2 to ITRF2014 were 2.2, -1.8 and 0.9 mm in the x-, y- and z-components respectively with rates smaller than 0.4 mmyr-1. Similarly, the scale factor transformed from SOL-1 to DTRF2008 was much smaller than that to ITRF2008. The scale parameter from SOL-2 to ITRF2014 was -0.31 ppb with a rate lower than 0.01 ppb yr-1. The external precision （WRMS） compared with IERS EOP 08 C04 of the combined EOP series was smaller than 0.06 mas for the polar motions, smaller than 0.01 ms for the UT1-UTC and smaller than 0.02 ms for the LODs. The precision of the EOPs in SOL-2 was slightly higher than that of SOL-1.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant numbers U2031202,U1731124 and U1531247the special foundation work of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China under Grant number 2014FY120300the 13th Five-year Informatization Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant number XXH13505-04。
文摘It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the solar dynamo of simulation and space mission planning. In this paper, we employ the long-shortterm memory(LSTM) and neural network autoregression(NNAR) deep learning methods to predict the upcoming 25 th solar cycle using the sunspot area(SSA) data during the period of May 1874 to December2020. Our results show that the 25 th solar cycle will be 55% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with a maximum sunspot area of 3115±401 and the cycle reaching its peak in October 2022 by using the LSTM method. It also shows that deep learning algorithms perform better than the other commonly used methods and have high application value.
文摘A detailed case study of γ-hadron segregation for a ground based atmo- spheric Cherenkov telescope is presented. We have evaluated and compared various supervised machine learning methods such as the Random Forest method, Artificial Neural Network, Linear Discriminant method, Naive Bayes Classifiers, Support Vector Machines as well as the conventional dynamic supercut method by simulating triggering events with the Monte Carlo method and applied the results to a Cherenkov telescope. It is demonstrated that the Random Forest method is the most sensitive machine learning method for γ-hadron segregation.
文摘A lunar occultation （LO） technique in the near-infrared （NIR） provides angular resolution down to milliarcseconds for an occulted source, even with ground- based 1 m class telescopes. LO observations are limited to brighter objects because they require a high signal-to-noise ratio （S/N ~40） for proper extraction of angular diameter values. Hence, methods to improve the S/N ratio by reducing noise using Fourier and wavelet transforms have been explored in this study. A sample of 54 NIR LO light curves observed with the IR camera at Mt Abu Observatory has been used. It is seen that both Fourier and wavelet methods have shown an improvement in S/N compared to the original data. However, the application of wavelet transforms causes a slight smoothing of the fringes and results in a higher value for angular diameter. Fourier transforms which reduce discrete noise frequencies do not distort the fringe. The Fourier transform method seems to be effective in improving the S/N, as well as improving the model fit, particularly in the fainter regime of our sample. These methods also provide a better model fit for brighter sources in some cases, though there may not be a significant imorovement in S/N.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11573065 and 11633008)the Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories and the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator,which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone,is one of the crucial observational bases for the solar dynamo to generate a magnetic field by shearing of the pre-existing poloidal magnetic field through differential rotation.The Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices（ESAI）elongated the Greenwich observation record of sunspots by several decades in the past.In this study,ESAI＇s yearly mean latitude of sunspots in the northern and southern hemispheres during the years 1854 to 1985 is utilized to statistically test whether hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle is linear or nonlinear.It is found that a quadratic function is statistically significantly better at describing hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle than a linear function.In addition,the latitude migration velocity of sunspots in a solar cycle decreases as the cycle progresses,providing a particular constraint for solar dynamo models.Indeed,the butterfly wing pattern with a faster latitudinal migration rate should present stronger solar activity with a shorter cycle period,and it is located at higher latitudinal position,giving evidence to support the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism.
基金the Chinese Academy of Sciences through Grant KGCX3-SYW-403-10the NSFC through Grants 10733020 and 10673017the National Ministry of Science and Technology through Grant 2006CB806307
文摘The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthly mean Group sunspot numbers available since 1610. A running average method is proposed to predict the size and length of a solar cycle by the use of the varying trend of the coefficients. It is found that, when a condition （that the correlation becomes stronger） is satisfied, the mean prediction error （16.1） is much smaller than when the condition is not satisfied （38.7）. This result can be explained by the fact that the prediction must fall on the regression line and increase the strength of the correlation. The method itself can also indicate whether the prediction is reasonable or not. To obtain a reasonable prediction, it is more important to search for a running correlation coefficient whose varying trend satisfies the proposed condition, and the result does not depend so much on the size of the correlation coefficient. As an application, the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 is estimated as 140.4 ± 15.7, and the peak as May 2012 ±11 months.
文摘The 10.7 cm solar radio flux （F10.7）, the value of the solar radio emission flux density at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, is a useful index of solar activity as a proxy for solar extreme ultraviolet radiation. It is meaningful and important to predict F10.7 values accurately for both long-term （months-years） and short-term （days） forecasting, which are often used as inputs in space weather models. This study applies a novel neural network technique, support vector regression （SVR）, to forecasting daily values of F10.7. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of SVR in short-term F10.7 forecasting. The approach, based on SVR, reduces the dimension of feature space in the training process by using a kernel-based learning algorithm. Thus, the complexity of the calculation becomes lower and a small amount of training data will be sufficient. The time series of F10.7 from 2002 to 2006 are employed as the data sets. The performance of the approach is estimated by calculating the norm mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It is shown that our approach can perform well by using fewer training data points than the traditional neural network.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the amplitudes of the three periods is studied. The results show that around 1750 and 1800, the amplitude of the 53-yr period was much higher than that of the the 11-yr period, that the ca. 53-yr period was apparent only for the interval from 1725 to 1850, and was very low after 1850, that around 1750, 1800 and 1900, the amplitude of the 101-yr period was higher than that of the 11-yr period and that, from 1940 to 2000, the 11-yr period greatly dominates over the other two periods.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11003041)the Yunnan Science Foundation of China under grant number2009CD120the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are proposed to investigate the phase relationship between the monthly sunspot group numbers in the solar northern and southern hemispheres. It is found that （1） the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere begin two months earlier than those in the southern one, which should lead to phase asynchrony between them but with a slight effect; （2） the Schwabe cycle length for the monthly sunspot group numbers in the two hemispheres obviously differs from each other, and the mean Schwabe cycle length of the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere is slightly larger than that in the southern one; （3） the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere precede those in the southern hemisphere during the years of about 1874- 1927, after which, the southern hemisphere leads the northern hemisphere in the years 1928-1964, and then the northern hemisphere leads in time till the present.
基金partially supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federationthe Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Project II.16.3.2)+2 种基金the Program of basic research of the RAS Presidium No.28Goszadanie 2018 (No. 007-00163-18-00 of 12.01.2018)supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR)(No. 17-52-80064 BRICS-a)
文摘Data analysis of sunspot oscillations based on a 6-hr SDO run of an observation showed that low frequency （0.2 〈ω 〈 1 mHz） oscillations are locally similar to three and five minute oscillations. The oscillations in the sunspot are concentrated in cells of a few arcsec, each of which has its own oscillation spectrum. The analysis of two scenarios for sunspot oscillations leads to a conclusion that local sunspot oscillations occur due to a subphotospheric resonator for slow MHD waves. Empirical models of a sunspot atmosphere and the theory of slow waves in thin magnetic flux tubes are applied to modeling the subphotospheric resonator. The spectrum of local oscillations consists of a great number of lines. This kind of spectrum can occur only if the subphotospheric resonator is a magnetic tube with a rather weak magnetic field. Magnetic tubes of this sort are umbral dots that appear due to the convective tongues in monolithic sunspots. The interrelation of local oscillations with umbral dots and wavefronts of traveling waves in sunspots is discussed.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 10373017)the Excellent Scientists Training Program of Beijing
文摘We reconstruct the developing history of solar 10.7 cm radio flux （F10.7） since 1848, based on the yearly sunspot number and the variations. A relationship between the maximum and the linear regression slope of the first 3 years starting from minimum of the solar cycle is considered. We put forward a method of predicting the maximum of F10.7 by means of the slope-maximum relationship. Running tests for cycles 19 to 23 indicate that the method can properly predict the peak of F10.7.
基金the Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC,U1931107)the Key Applied Basic Research Program of Yunnan Province(2018FA035)+3 种基金the NSFC(Nos.11803005 and 11911530690)Shenzhen Technology Project(JCYJ20180306172239618)the NSFC(Grant Nos.11427901,11673038,11773038,11873062 and 11973056)the Open Research Program(KLSA202007)of Key Laboratory of Solar Activity of National Astronomical Observatory of China。
文摘A sunspot is an ideal waveguide for a variety of magnetohydrodynamic waves,which carry a significant amount of energy to the upper atmosphere and could be used as a tool to probe the magnetic and thermal structure of a sunspot.In this study,we used the New Vacuum Solar Telescope and took highresolution image sequences simultaneously in both Ti O(7058±10?A)and Hα(6562±2.5?A)bandpasses.We extracted the area and total emission intensity variations of sunspot umbra and analyzed the signals with synchrosqueezing transform.We found that the area and emission intensity varied with both three and five minute periodicity.Moreover,the area and intensity oscillated in phase with each other,this fact hold in both Ti O and Hαdata.We interpret this oscillatory signal as a propagating slow sausage wave.The propagation speed is estimated at about 8 km s^-1.We infer that this sunspot's umbra could have temperature as low as 2800–3500 K.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The terrain camera （TCAM） and panoramic camera （PCAM） are two of the major scientific payloads installed on the lander and rover of the Chang＇e 3 mission re- spectively. They both use a Bayer color filter array covering CMOS sensor to capture color images of the Moon＇s surface. RGB values of the original images are related to these two kinds of cameras. There is an obvious color difference compared with human visual perception. This paper follows standards published by the International Commission on Illumination to establish a color correction model, designs the ground calibration experiment and obtains the color correction coefficient. The image qual- ity has been significantly improved and there is no obvious color difference in the corrected images. Ground experimental results show that： （1） Compared with uncor- rected images, the average color difference of TCAM is 4.30, which has been reduced by 62.1%. （2） The average color differences of the left and right cameras in PCAM are 4.14 and 4.16, which have been reduced by 68.3% and 67.6% respectively.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10973020 and 11273031)
文摘It is widely believed that the evolution of solar active regions leads to solar flares. However, information about the evolution of solar active regions is not employed in most existing solar flare forecasting models. In the current work, a short- term solar flare forecasting model is proposed, in which sequential sunspot data, in- cluding three days of information about evolution from active regions, are taken as one of the basic predictors. The sunspot area, the Mclntosh classification, the mag- netic classification and the radio flux are extracted and converted to a numerical for- mat that is suitable for the current forecasting model. Based on these parameters, the sliding-window method is used to form the sequential data by adding three days of information about evolution. Then, multi-layer perceptron and learning vector quanti- zation are employed to predict the flare level within 48 h. Experimental results indicate that the performance of the proposed flare forecasting model works better than previ- ous models.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.10973020,40890161 and 10921303)the National Basic Research Program of China(973 ProgramGrant No.2011CB811406)
文摘The concept of degree of similarity （η）, is proposed to quantitatively describe the similarity of a parameter （e.g. the maximum amplitude Rmax） of a solar cycle relative to a referenced one, and the prediction method of similar cycles is further developed. For two parameters, the solar minimum （Rmin） and rising rate （βa）, which can be directly measured a few months after the minimum, a synthesis degree of similarity （ηs） is defined as the weighted-average of the η values around Rmin and βa, with the weights given by the coefficients of determination of Rmax with Rmin and βa, respectively. The monthly values of the whole referenced cycle can be predicted by averaging the corresponding values in the most similar cycles with the weights given by the ηs values. As an application, Cycle 24 is predicted to peak around January 2013 i8 （month） with a size of about Rmax = 84 ± 17 and to end around September 2019.
基金support through the JC Bose Fellowship(project No.SR/S2/JCB-61/2009)
文摘We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultane- ous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results： （a） fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; （b） both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; （c） distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; （d） the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and the average duration of grand minima, with a coherence time of about 30 yr being consistent with observational data. We also study the occurrence of grand maxima and find that the distributions of durations and waiting times between grand maxima are also exponential, like the grand minima. Finally we address the question of whether the Babcock-Leighton mechanism can be operative during grand minima when there are no sunspots. We show that an a-effect restricted to the upper portions of the convection zone can pull the dynamo out of the grand minima and can match various observational requirements if the amplitude of this a-effect is suitably fine-tuned.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘PLS （Partial Least Squares regression） is introduced into an automatic estimation of fundamental stellar spectral parameters. It extracts the most correlative spectral component to the parameters （Teff, log g and [Fe/H]）, and sets up a linear regression function from spectra to the corresponding parameters. Considering the properties of stellar spectra and the PLS algorithm, we present a piecewise PLS regression method for estimation of stellar parameters, which is composed of one PLS model for Teff, and seven PLS models for log g and [Fe/H] estimation. Its performance is investigated by large experiments on flux calibrated spectra and continuum normalized spectra at different signal-to-noise ratios （SNRs） and resolutions. The results show that the piecewise PLS method is robust for spectra at the medium resolution of 0.23 nm. For low resolution 0.5 nm and 1 nm spectra, it achieves competitive results at higher SNR. Experiments using ELODIE spectra of 0.23 nm resolution illustrate that our piecewise PLS models trained with MILES spectra are efficient for O ～ G stars： for flux calibrated spectra, the systematic offsets are 3.8%, 0.14 dex, and -0.09 dex for Teff, log g and [Fe/H], with error scatters of 5.2%, 0.44 dex and 0.38 dex, respectively; for continuum normalized spectra, the systematic offsets are 3.8%, 0.12dex, and -0.13 dex for Teff, log g and [Fe/H], with error scatters of 5.2%, 0.49 dex and 0.41 dex, respectively. The PLS method is rapid, easy to use and does not rely as strongly on the tightness of a parameter grid of templates to reach high precision as Artificial Neural Networks or minimum distance methods do.
文摘We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light （WL） associated with major flares. We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon. In total, we investigate 403 events from 1998 May 9 to 2004 July 17, including 40 X-class, 174 M-class, and 189 C-class flares. By monitoring the structure of the flaring active regions using the WL observations from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer （TRACE）, we find that segments in the outer sunspot structure decayed rapidly right after many flares; and that, on the other hand, the central part of sunspots near the flare-associated magnetic neutral line became darkened. These rapid and permanent changes are evidenced in the time profiles of WL mean intensity and are not likely resulted from the flare emissions. Our study further shows that the outer sunspot structure decay as well as the central structure darkening are more likely to be detected in larger solar flares. For X-class flares, over 40% events show distinct sunspot structure change. For M- and C-class flares, this percentage drops to 17% and 10%, respectively. The results of this statistical study support our previously proposed reconnection picture, i.e., the flare-related magnetic fields evolve from a highly inclined to a more vertical configuration.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61073145, 41140027 and 41210104028)the Shanxi Province Natural Science Foundation (No. 2012011011-4)+1 种基金Scientific and Technological Innovation Programs of Higher Education Institutions in Shanxi, China (No. 20121011)the Shanxi Province Science Foundation for Youths (No. 2012021015-4)
文摘Effective extraction of data association rules can provide a reliable basis for classification of stellar spectra. The concept of stellar spectrum weighted itemsets and stellar spectrum weighted association rules are introduced, and the weight of a single property in the stellar spectrum is determined by information entropy. On that basis, a method is presented to mine the association rules of a stellar spectrum based on the weighted frequent pattern tree. Important properties of the spectral line are highlighted using this method. At the same time, the waveform of the whole spectrum is taken into account. The experimental results show that the data association rules of a stellar spectrum mined with this method are consistent with the main features of stellar spectral types.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘A method is developed to calculate probability of collision. Based on geometric features of space objects during the encounter, it is reasonable to separate the radial orbital motions from those in the cross section for most encounter events that occur in a near-circular orbit. Therefore, the probability of collision caused by differences in both altitude of the orbit in the radial direction and the probability of collision caused by differences in arrival time in the cross section are calculated. The net probability of collision is expressed as an explicit expression by multiplying the above two components. Numerical cases are applied to test this method by comparing the results with the general method. The results indicate that this method is valid for most encounter events that occur in near-circular orbits.
基金supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2015FY310200)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFB0501405)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11173048 and 11403076)the State Key Laboratory of Aerospace Dynamics and the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China(CMONOC)
文摘Based on years of input from the four geodetic techniques （SLR, GPS, VLBI and DORIS）, the strategies of the combination were studied in SHAO to generate a new global terrestrial reference frame as the material realization of the ITRS defined in IERS Conventions. The main input includes the time series of weekly solutions （or fortnightly for SLR 1983-1993） of observational data for satellite techniques and session-wise normal equations for VLBI. The set of estimated unknowns includes 3- dimensional Cartesian coordinates at the reference epoch 2005.0 of the stations distributed globally and their rates as well as the time series of consistent Earth Orientation Parameters （EOPs） at the same epochs as the input. Besides the final solution, namely SOL-2, generated by using all the inputs before 2015.0 obtained from short-term observation processing, another reference solution, namely SOL- 1, was also computed by using the input before 2009.0 based on the same combination of procedures for the purpose of comparison with ITRF2008 and DTRF2008 and for evaluating the effect of the latest six more years of data on the combined results. The estimated accuracy of the x-component and y-component of the SOL- 1 TRF-origin was better than 0.1 mm at epoch 2005.0 and better than 0.3 mm yr- 1 in time evolution, either compared with ITRF2008 or DTRF2008. However, the z-component of the translation parameters from SOL-1 to ITRF2008 and DTRF2008 were 3.4 mm and -1.0 ram, respectively. It seems that the z-component of the SOL-1 TRF-origin was much closer to the one in DTRF2008 than the one in ITRF2008. The translation parameters from SOL-2 to ITRF2014 were 2.2, -1.8 and 0.9 mm in the x-, y- and z-components respectively with rates smaller than 0.4 mmyr-1. Similarly, the scale factor transformed from SOL-1 to DTRF2008 was much smaller than that to ITRF2008. The scale parameter from SOL-2 to ITRF2014 was -0.31 ppb with a rate lower than 0.01 ppb yr-1. The external precision （WRMS） compared with IERS EOP 08 C04 of the combined EOP series was smaller than 0.06 mas for the polar motions, smaller than 0.01 ms for the UT1-UTC and smaller than 0.02 ms for the LODs. The precision of the EOPs in SOL-2 was slightly higher than that of SOL-1.
