The automatic detection and analysis of sunspots play a crucial role in understanding solar dynamics and predicting space weather events.This paper proposes a novel method for sunspot group detection and classificatio...The automatic detection and analysis of sunspots play a crucial role in understanding solar dynamics and predicting space weather events.This paper proposes a novel method for sunspot group detection and classification called the dual stream Convolutional Neural Network with Attention Mechanism(DSCNN-AM).The network consists of two parallel streams each processing different input data allowing for joint processing of spatial and temporal information while classifying sunspots.It takes in the white light images as well as the corresponding magnetic images that reveal both the optical and magnetic features of sunspots.The extracted features are then fused and processed by fully connected layers to perform detection and classification.The attention mechanism is further integrated to address the“edge dimming”problem which improves the model’s ability to handle sunspots near the edge of the solar disk.The network is trained and tested on the SOLAR-STORM1 data set.The results demonstrate that the DSCNN-AM achieves superior performance compared to existing methods,with a total accuracy exceeding 90%.展开更多
In this present study,we have analyzed different types of X-ray solar flares(C,M,and X classes)coming out from different classes of sunspot groups(SSGs).The data which we have taken under this study cover the duration...In this present study,we have analyzed different types of X-ray solar flares(C,M,and X classes)coming out from different classes of sunspot groups(SSGs).The data which we have taken under this study cover the duration of 24 yr from 1996 to 2019.During this,we observed a total of 15015 flares(8417 in SC-23 and 6598 in SC-24)emitted from a total of 33780 active regions(21746 in SC-23 and 12034 in SC-24)with sunspot only.We defined the flaring potential or flare-production potential as the ratio of the total number of flares produced from a particular type of SSG to the total number of the same-class SSGs observed on the solar surface.Here we studied yearly changes in the flaring potential of different McIntosh class groups of sunspots in different phases of SC-23 and 24.In addition,we investigated yearly variations in the potential of producing flares by different SSGs(A,B,C,D,E,F,and H)during different phases(ascending,maximum,descending,and minimum)of SC-23 and 24.These are our findings:(1)D,E,and F SSGs have the potential of producing flares≥8 times greater than A,B,C and H SSGs;(2)The larger and more complex D,E,and F SSGs produced nearly 80%of flares in SC-23 and 24;(3)The A,B,C and H SSGs,which are smaller and simpler,produced only 20%of flares in SC-23 and 24;(4)The biggest and most complex SSGs of F-class have flaring potential 1.996 and 3.443 per SSG in SC-23 and 24,respectively.(5)The potential for producing flares in each SSG is higher in SC-24 than in SC-23,although SC-24 is a weaker cycle than SC-23.(6)The alterations in the number of flares(C+M+X)show different time profiles than the alterations in sunspot numbers during SC-23 and 24,with several peaks.(7)The SSGs of C,D,E,and H-class have the highest flaring potential in the descending phase of both SC-23 and 24.(8)F-class SSGs have the highest flaring potential in the descending phase of SC-23 but also in the maximum phase of SC-24.展开更多
The history of our solar system has been greatly influenced by the fact that there is a large gas giant planet, Jupiter that has a nearly circular orbit. This has allowed relics of the early solar system formation to ...The history of our solar system has been greatly influenced by the fact that there is a large gas giant planet, Jupiter that has a nearly circular orbit. This has allowed relics of the early solar system formation to still be observable today. Since Jupiter orbits the Sun with a period of approximately 12 years, it has always been thought that this could be connected to the nearly 11-year periodic peak in the number of sunspots observed. In this paper, the Sun and planets are considered to be moving about a center of mass point as the different planets orbit the Sun. This is the action of gravity that holds the solar system together. The center of mass for the Jupiter-Sun system actually lies outside the Sun. The four gas giant planets dominate such effects and the four gas giant Jovian planets can be projected together to determine an effective distance from the Sun’s center. Taken together these effects do seem to function as a sunspot forcing factor with a periodicity very close to 11 years. These predictions are made without consideration of any details of what is happening in the interior of the Sun. From these estimates, sunspot cycle 25 will be expected to peak in about September-October of 2025. Sunspot cycle 26 should peak in the year March of 2037.展开更多
We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number Rg and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of Rg is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attract...We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number Rg and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of Rg is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attractor. This finding is consistent with the nonlinear study results of the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers. We estimate the maximal Lyaponuv exponent （MLE） for the Rg series to be positive and to equal approximately 0.0187 ± 0.0023 （month^- 1）. Thus, the Lyaponuv time or predictability time of the chaotic motion is obtained to be about 4.46 ± 0.5 years, which is slightly different with the predictability time obtained from Rz. However, they both indicate that solar activity forecast should be done only for a short to medium term due to the intrinsic complexity of the time behavior concerned.展开更多
As the second bestseller of Khaled Hosseini' s novels that spread all over the world,A Thousand Splendid Suns embodies the quite impressive and infective writing techniques and narrative power of its writer and it...As the second bestseller of Khaled Hosseini' s novels that spread all over the world,A Thousand Splendid Suns embodies the quite impressive and infective writing techniques and narrative power of its writer and it also shows the unique language style of Hosseini.This paper gives an explanation of the narrative point of view and analyses the specific examples in the text.Through deepening the transition of third-person point of view between the two characters,the paper demonstrates its stylistic effects in arranging the textual structure as well as building the characters,thus deepen the theme of the whole story.展开更多
Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in active region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an...Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in active region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an X3.4 flare. From a series of vector magnetograms, it is found that magnetic force lines are highly sheared along the neutral line accompanying the sunspot rotation. Furthermore, it is also found that sheared loops and an inverse S-shaped magnetic loop in the corona formed gradually after the sunspot rotation. The X3.4 flare can be reasonably regarded as a result of this movement. A detailed analysis provides evidence that sunspot rotation leads to magnetic field lines twisting in the photosphere. The twist is then transported into the corona and triggers flares.展开更多
The Empirical Mode Decomposition （EMD） and Auto-Regressive model （AR） are applied to a long-term prediction of sunspot numbers. With the sample data of sunspot numbers from 1848 to 1992, the method is evaluated by...The Empirical Mode Decomposition （EMD） and Auto-Regressive model （AR） are applied to a long-term prediction of sunspot numbers. With the sample data of sunspot numbers from 1848 to 1992, the method is evaluated by examining the measured data of the solar cycle 23 with the prediction： different time scale components are obtained by the EMD method and multi-step predicted values are combined to reconstruct the sunspot number time series. The result is remarkably good in comparison to the predictions made by the solar dynamo and precursor approaches for cycle 23. Sunspot numbers of the coming solar cycle 24 are obtained with the data from 1848 to 2007, the maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle is predicted to be about 112 in 2011-2012.展开更多
We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the ampli...We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the amplitudes of the three periods is studied. The results show that around 1750 and 1800, the amplitude of the 53-yr period was much higher than that of the the 11-yr period, that the ca. 53-yr period was apparent only for the interval from 1725 to 1850, and was very low after 1850, that around 1750, 1800 and 1900, the amplitude of the 101-yr period was higher than that of the 11-yr period and that, from 1940 to 2000, the 11-yr period greatly dominates over the other two periods.展开更多
It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the sol...It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the solar dynamo of simulation and space mission planning. In this paper, we employ the long-shortterm memory(LSTM) and neural network autoregression(NNAR) deep learning methods to predict the upcoming 25 th solar cycle using the sunspot area(SSA) data during the period of May 1874 to December2020. Our results show that the 25 th solar cycle will be 55% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with a maximum sunspot area of 3115±401 and the cycle reaching its peak in October 2022 by using the LSTM method. It also shows that deep learning algorithms perform better than the other commonly used methods and have high application value.展开更多
A sunspot is an ideal waveguide for a variety of magnetohydrodynamic waves,which carry a significant amount of energy to the upper atmosphere and could be used as a tool to probe the magnetic and thermal structure of ...A sunspot is an ideal waveguide for a variety of magnetohydrodynamic waves,which carry a significant amount of energy to the upper atmosphere and could be used as a tool to probe the magnetic and thermal structure of a sunspot.In this study,we used the New Vacuum Solar Telescope and took highresolution image sequences simultaneously in both Ti O(7058±10?A)and Hα(6562±2.5?A)bandpasses.We extracted the area and total emission intensity variations of sunspot umbra and analyzed the signals with synchrosqueezing transform.We found that the area and emission intensity varied with both three and five minute periodicity.Moreover,the area and intensity oscillated in phase with each other,this fact hold in both Ti O and Hαdata.We interpret this oscillatory signal as a propagating slow sausage wave.The propagation speed is estimated at about 8 km s^-1.We infer that this sunspot's umbra could have temperature as low as 2800–3500 K.展开更多
We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultane- ous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo ...We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultane- ous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results： （a） fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; （b） both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; （c） distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; （d） the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and the average duration of grand minima, with a coherence time of about 30 yr being consistent with observational data. We also study the occurrence of grand maxima and find that the distributions of durations and waiting times between grand maxima are also exponential, like the grand minima. Finally we address the question of whether the Babcock-Leighton mechanism can be operative during grand minima when there are no sunspots. We show that an a-effect restricted to the upper portions of the convection zone can pull the dynamo out of the grand minima and can match various observational requirements if the amplitude of this a-effect is suitably fine-tuned.展开更多
Nebula theory is the most widely accepted hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System. This theoryholds that the Sun is formed from a collapsed gas cloud 4.57 billion years ago;when the core tempe...Nebula theory is the most widely accepted hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System. This theoryholds that the Sun is formed from a collapsed gas cloud 4.57 billion years ago;when the core temperature of the gas cloud rises to 10million K, the thermonuclear reaction of hydrogen fusion into helium is ignited, then the Sun become a star;once the hydrogen in thecore is exhausted, the life of the star will end. But the limited hydrogen element obviously cannot satisfy such a long-termthermonuclear reaction, in order to sustain long-term thermonuclear reactions, a steady stream of fuel must be obtained from space.So the existing hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System has serious defects. Thus the author has studied theformation of the Moon, the Earth and the Sun, and discovered the formation of the Sun and the real source of star energy. The authorcould also explain many solar activity phenomena such as sunspots, flares, prominences, etc.展开更多
We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light （WL） associated with major flares. We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon...We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light （WL） associated with major flares. We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon. In total, we investigate 403 events from 1998 May 9 to 2004 July 17, including 40 X-class, 174 M-class, and 189 C-class flares. By monitoring the structure of the flaring active regions using the WL observations from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer （TRACE）, we find that segments in the outer sunspot structure decayed rapidly right after many flares; and that, on the other hand, the central part of sunspots near the flare-associated magnetic neutral line became darkened. These rapid and permanent changes are evidenced in the time profiles of WL mean intensity and are not likely resulted from the flare emissions. Our study further shows that the outer sunspot structure decay as well as the central structure darkening are more likely to be detected in larger solar flares. For X-class flares, over 40% events show distinct sunspot structure change. For M- and C-class flares, this percentage drops to 17% and 10%, respectively. The results of this statistical study support our previously proposed reconnection picture, i.e., the flare-related magnetic fields evolve from a highly inclined to a more vertical configuration.展开更多
Data analysis of sunspot oscillations based on a 6-hr SDO run of an observation showed that low frequency （0.2 〈ω 〈 1 mHz） oscillations are locally similar to three and five minute oscillations. The oscillations ...Data analysis of sunspot oscillations based on a 6-hr SDO run of an observation showed that low frequency （0.2 〈ω 〈 1 mHz） oscillations are locally similar to three and five minute oscillations. The oscillations in the sunspot are concentrated in cells of a few arcsec, each of which has its own oscillation spectrum. The analysis of two scenarios for sunspot oscillations leads to a conclusion that local sunspot oscillations occur due to a subphotospheric resonator for slow MHD waves. Empirical models of a sunspot atmosphere and the theory of slow waves in thin magnetic flux tubes are applied to modeling the subphotospheric resonator. The spectrum of local oscillations consists of a great number of lines. This kind of spectrum can occur only if the subphotospheric resonator is a magnetic tube with a rather weak magnetic field. Magnetic tubes of this sort are umbral dots that appear due to the convective tongues in monolithic sunspots. The interrelation of local oscillations with umbral dots and wavefronts of traveling waves in sunspots is discussed.展开更多
It is widely believed that the evolution of solar active regions leads to solar flares. However, information about the evolution of solar active regions is not employed in most existing solar flare forecasting models....It is widely believed that the evolution of solar active regions leads to solar flares. However, information about the evolution of solar active regions is not employed in most existing solar flare forecasting models. In the current work, a short- term solar flare forecasting model is proposed, in which sequential sunspot data, in- cluding three days of information about evolution from active regions, are taken as one of the basic predictors. The sunspot area, the Mclntosh classification, the mag- netic classification and the radio flux are extracted and converted to a numerical for- mat that is suitable for the current forecasting model. Based on these parameters, the sliding-window method is used to form the sequential data by adding three days of information about evolution. Then, multi-layer perceptron and learning vector quanti- zation are employed to predict the flare level within 48 h. Experimental results indicate that the performance of the proposed flare forecasting model works better than previ- ous models.展开更多
Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are proposed to investigate the phase relationship between the monthly sunspot group numbers in the solar northern and southern hemispheres. It is found that （...Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are proposed to investigate the phase relationship between the monthly sunspot group numbers in the solar northern and southern hemispheres. It is found that （1） the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere begin two months earlier than those in the southern one, which should lead to phase asynchrony between them but with a slight effect; （2） the Schwabe cycle length for the monthly sunspot group numbers in the two hemispheres obviously differs from each other, and the mean Schwabe cycle length of the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere is slightly larger than that in the southern one; （3） the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere precede those in the southern hemisphere during the years of about 1874- 1927, after which, the southern hemisphere leads the northern hemisphere in the years 1928-1964, and then the northern hemisphere leads in time till the present.展开更多
Taking the 13-point smoothed monthly sunspot number,Ri, and the deviation of the 13 associated monthly sunspot numbers from the smoothed one, Di, as a number-pair describing the global level of sunspot activity, the e...Taking the 13-point smoothed monthly sunspot number,Ri, and the deviation of the 13 associated monthly sunspot numbers from the smoothed one, Di, as a number-pair describing the global level of sunspot activity, the evolution of the level is statistically studied for the period from the month which is just 48 months before the minimum to the minimum in the descending phase, using the observed data of Solar Cycles 10 to 22. Our results show （1） for 46 months （94%） of the studied 49 months it is found that for a given month, the distribution of the 13 pairs which come from the 13 solar cycles on a log Ri - Di plane may be fitted by a straight line with a correlation coefficient larger than the critical one at confidence level a = 5%, and for 36 months （73%） the fitting is even better, for a = 1%; （2） time variations of these two parameters and their correlations in the studied period can be described respectively by functions of time, whose main trends may be expressed by a linear or simple curvilinear function; （3） the evolutionary path of the level of sunspot activity may be represented by a logarithmic function as log/~ = 0.704 lnDi - 0.291.展开更多
The relationships between solar flare parameters （total importance, time duration, flare index, and flux） and sunspot activity （R z ） as well as those between geomagnetic activity （aa index） and the flare parame...The relationships between solar flare parameters （total importance, time duration, flare index, and flux） and sunspot activity （R z ） as well as those between geomagnetic activity （aa index） and the flare parameters can be well described by an integral response model with the response time scales of about 8 and 13 months, respectively. Compared with linear relationships, the correlation coefficients of the flare parameters with R z , of aa with the flare parameters, and of aa with R z based on this model have increased about 6%, 17%, and 47% on average, respectively. The time delays between the flare parameters with respect to R z , aa to the flare parameters, and aa to R z at their peaks in a solar cycle can be predicted in part by this model （82%, 47%, and 78%, respectively）. These results may be further improved when using a cosine filter with a wider window. It implies that solar flares are related to the accumulation of solar magnetic energy in the past through a time decay factor. The above results may help us to understand the mechanism of solar flares and to improve the prediction of the solar flares.展开更多
The five-minute oscillations inside sunspots appear to be the absorption of the solar p-mode. It is a potential tool to probe a sunspot＇s sub-structure. We studied the collective properties of five-minute oscillation...The five-minute oscillations inside sunspots appear to be the absorption of the solar p-mode. It is a potential tool to probe a sunspot＇s sub-structure. We studied the collective properties of five-minute oscillations in the power and phase distribution at the sunspot＇s umbra-penumbra boundary. The azimuthal distributions of the power and phase of five-minute oscillations enclosing a sunspot＇s umbra were obtained with images taken with the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly （SDO/AIA）. The azimuthal modes were quantified with periodogram analysis and justified with significance tests. The azimuthal nodal structures in an approximately ax- ially symmetric sunspot AR 11131 （2010 Dec 08） were investigated. Mode numbers ra = 2, 3, 4, 7, 10 were obtained in both 1700 A and 1600A bandpasses. The 1600A channel also revealed an extra mode at m = 9. In the upper atmosphere （304 A）, fewer modes were detected at m = 3, 4, 7. The azimuthal modes in the sunspot＇s low atmo- sphere could be interpreted as high-order azimuthal MHD body modes. They were detected in the power and phase of the five-minute oscillations in sunspot AR 11131 with SDO/AIA data. Fewer modes were detected in the sunspot＇s upper atmosphere.展开更多
Quasi-biennial Oscillations(QBOs)of the Sun have a significant meaning as a benchmark of solar cycle,not only for understanding the dynamo action but also in terms of space weather prediction.In this paper,the hand-dr...Quasi-biennial Oscillations(QBOs)of the Sun have a significant meaning as a benchmark of solar cycle,not only for understanding the dynamo action but also in terms of space weather prediction.In this paper,the hand-drawn sunspot images recorded from the Purple Mountain Observatory are used to investigate the solar QBOs and the Gnevyshev gap of the sunspot relative numbers(Rs)and group sunspot numbers(Rg)during the period 1954–2011.The main results are as follows:(1)both the Rs and Rg exhibit similar periods including the 22-year magnetic cycle,the 11-year Schwabe cycle,and the QBOs modes;(2)the reconstructed QBOs of both data sets exhibit coherent behavior and tend to have a high amplitude during the maximum phase of each solar cycle;(3)the Gnevyshev gap is produced by the superposition of the QBOs and the 11-year Schwabe cycle,and the Rs is better to study the variation of the Gnevyshev gap rather than the Rg.展开更多
文摘The automatic detection and analysis of sunspots play a crucial role in understanding solar dynamics and predicting space weather events.This paper proposes a novel method for sunspot group detection and classification called the dual stream Convolutional Neural Network with Attention Mechanism(DSCNN-AM).The network consists of two parallel streams each processing different input data allowing for joint processing of spatial and temporal information while classifying sunspots.It takes in the white light images as well as the corresponding magnetic images that reveal both the optical and magnetic features of sunspots.The extracted features are then fused and processed by fully connected layers to perform detection and classification.The attention mechanism is further integrated to address the“edge dimming”problem which improves the model’s ability to handle sunspots near the edge of the solar disk.The network is trained and tested on the SOLAR-STORM1 data set.The results demonstrate that the DSCNN-AM achieves superior performance compared to existing methods,with a total accuracy exceeding 90%.
基金partially supported by the Institute of Eminence(Io E)Program(Scheme No:6031)of BHU,Varanasi。
文摘In this present study,we have analyzed different types of X-ray solar flares(C,M,and X classes)coming out from different classes of sunspot groups(SSGs).The data which we have taken under this study cover the duration of 24 yr from 1996 to 2019.During this,we observed a total of 15015 flares(8417 in SC-23 and 6598 in SC-24)emitted from a total of 33780 active regions(21746 in SC-23 and 12034 in SC-24)with sunspot only.We defined the flaring potential or flare-production potential as the ratio of the total number of flares produced from a particular type of SSG to the total number of the same-class SSGs observed on the solar surface.Here we studied yearly changes in the flaring potential of different McIntosh class groups of sunspots in different phases of SC-23 and 24.In addition,we investigated yearly variations in the potential of producing flares by different SSGs(A,B,C,D,E,F,and H)during different phases(ascending,maximum,descending,and minimum)of SC-23 and 24.These are our findings:(1)D,E,and F SSGs have the potential of producing flares≥8 times greater than A,B,C and H SSGs;(2)The larger and more complex D,E,and F SSGs produced nearly 80%of flares in SC-23 and 24;(3)The A,B,C and H SSGs,which are smaller and simpler,produced only 20%of flares in SC-23 and 24;(4)The biggest and most complex SSGs of F-class have flaring potential 1.996 and 3.443 per SSG in SC-23 and 24,respectively.(5)The potential for producing flares in each SSG is higher in SC-24 than in SC-23,although SC-24 is a weaker cycle than SC-23.(6)The alterations in the number of flares(C+M+X)show different time profiles than the alterations in sunspot numbers during SC-23 and 24,with several peaks.(7)The SSGs of C,D,E,and H-class have the highest flaring potential in the descending phase of both SC-23 and 24.(8)F-class SSGs have the highest flaring potential in the descending phase of SC-23 but also in the maximum phase of SC-24.
文摘The history of our solar system has been greatly influenced by the fact that there is a large gas giant planet, Jupiter that has a nearly circular orbit. This has allowed relics of the early solar system formation to still be observable today. Since Jupiter orbits the Sun with a period of approximately 12 years, it has always been thought that this could be connected to the nearly 11-year periodic peak in the number of sunspots observed. In this paper, the Sun and planets are considered to be moving about a center of mass point as the different planets orbit the Sun. This is the action of gravity that holds the solar system together. The center of mass for the Jupiter-Sun system actually lies outside the Sun. The four gas giant planets dominate such effects and the four gas giant Jovian planets can be projected together to determine an effective distance from the Sun’s center. Taken together these effects do seem to function as a sunspot forcing factor with a periodicity very close to 11 years. These predictions are made without consideration of any details of what is happening in the interior of the Sun. From these estimates, sunspot cycle 25 will be expected to peak in about September-October of 2025. Sunspot cycle 26 should peak in the year March of 2037.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number Rg and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of Rg is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attractor. This finding is consistent with the nonlinear study results of the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers. We estimate the maximal Lyaponuv exponent （MLE） for the Rg series to be positive and to equal approximately 0.0187 ± 0.0023 （month^- 1）. Thus, the Lyaponuv time or predictability time of the chaotic motion is obtained to be about 4.46 ± 0.5 years, which is slightly different with the predictability time obtained from Rz. However, they both indicate that solar activity forecast should be done only for a short to medium term due to the intrinsic complexity of the time behavior concerned.
文摘As the second bestseller of Khaled Hosseini' s novels that spread all over the world,A Thousand Splendid Suns embodies the quite impressive and infective writing techniques and narrative power of its writer and it also shows the unique language style of Hosseini.This paper gives an explanation of the narrative point of view and analyses the specific examples in the text.Through deepening the transition of third-person point of view between the two characters,the paper demonstrates its stylistic effects in arranging the textual structure as well as building the characters,thus deepen the theme of the whole story.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) undergrant numbers 10673031 and 40636031the National Basic Research Program of China 973 undergrant number G2006CB806301.
文摘Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in active region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an X3.4 flare. From a series of vector magnetograms, it is found that magnetic force lines are highly sheared along the neutral line accompanying the sunspot rotation. Furthermore, it is also found that sheared loops and an inverse S-shaped magnetic loop in the corona formed gradually after the sunspot rotation. The X3.4 flare can be reasonably regarded as a result of this movement. A detailed analysis provides evidence that sunspot rotation leads to magnetic field lines twisting in the photosphere. The twist is then transported into the corona and triggers flares.
文摘The Empirical Mode Decomposition （EMD） and Auto-Regressive model （AR） are applied to a long-term prediction of sunspot numbers. With the sample data of sunspot numbers from 1848 to 1992, the method is evaluated by examining the measured data of the solar cycle 23 with the prediction： different time scale components are obtained by the EMD method and multi-step predicted values are combined to reconstruct the sunspot number time series. The result is remarkably good in comparison to the predictions made by the solar dynamo and precursor approaches for cycle 23. Sunspot numbers of the coming solar cycle 24 are obtained with the data from 1848 to 2007, the maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle is predicted to be about 112 in 2011-2012.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the amplitudes of the three periods is studied. The results show that around 1750 and 1800, the amplitude of the 53-yr period was much higher than that of the the 11-yr period, that the ca. 53-yr period was apparent only for the interval from 1725 to 1850, and was very low after 1850, that around 1750, 1800 and 1900, the amplitude of the 101-yr period was higher than that of the 11-yr period and that, from 1940 to 2000, the 11-yr period greatly dominates over the other two periods.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant numbers U2031202,U1731124 and U1531247the special foundation work of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China under Grant number 2014FY120300the 13th Five-year Informatization Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant number XXH13505-04。
文摘It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the solar dynamo of simulation and space mission planning. In this paper, we employ the long-shortterm memory(LSTM) and neural network autoregression(NNAR) deep learning methods to predict the upcoming 25 th solar cycle using the sunspot area(SSA) data during the period of May 1874 to December2020. Our results show that the 25 th solar cycle will be 55% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with a maximum sunspot area of 3115±401 and the cycle reaching its peak in October 2022 by using the LSTM method. It also shows that deep learning algorithms perform better than the other commonly used methods and have high application value.
基金the Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC,U1931107)the Key Applied Basic Research Program of Yunnan Province(2018FA035)+3 种基金the NSFC(Nos.11803005 and 11911530690)Shenzhen Technology Project(JCYJ20180306172239618)the NSFC(Grant Nos.11427901,11673038,11773038,11873062 and 11973056)the Open Research Program(KLSA202007)of Key Laboratory of Solar Activity of National Astronomical Observatory of China。
文摘A sunspot is an ideal waveguide for a variety of magnetohydrodynamic waves,which carry a significant amount of energy to the upper atmosphere and could be used as a tool to probe the magnetic and thermal structure of a sunspot.In this study,we used the New Vacuum Solar Telescope and took highresolution image sequences simultaneously in both Ti O(7058±10?A)and Hα(6562±2.5?A)bandpasses.We extracted the area and total emission intensity variations of sunspot umbra and analyzed the signals with synchrosqueezing transform.We found that the area and emission intensity varied with both three and five minute periodicity.Moreover,the area and intensity oscillated in phase with each other,this fact hold in both Ti O and Hαdata.We interpret this oscillatory signal as a propagating slow sausage wave.The propagation speed is estimated at about 8 km s^-1.We infer that this sunspot's umbra could have temperature as low as 2800–3500 K.
基金support through the JC Bose Fellowship(project No.SR/S2/JCB-61/2009)
文摘We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultane- ous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results： （a） fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; （b） both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; （c） distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; （d） the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and the average duration of grand minima, with a coherence time of about 30 yr being consistent with observational data. We also study the occurrence of grand maxima and find that the distributions of durations and waiting times between grand maxima are also exponential, like the grand minima. Finally we address the question of whether the Babcock-Leighton mechanism can be operative during grand minima when there are no sunspots. We show that an a-effect restricted to the upper portions of the convection zone can pull the dynamo out of the grand minima and can match various observational requirements if the amplitude of this a-effect is suitably fine-tuned.
文摘Nebula theory is the most widely accepted hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System. This theoryholds that the Sun is formed from a collapsed gas cloud 4.57 billion years ago;when the core temperature of the gas cloud rises to 10million K, the thermonuclear reaction of hydrogen fusion into helium is ignited, then the Sun become a star;once the hydrogen in thecore is exhausted, the life of the star will end. But the limited hydrogen element obviously cannot satisfy such a long-termthermonuclear reaction, in order to sustain long-term thermonuclear reactions, a steady stream of fuel must be obtained from space.So the existing hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System has serious defects. Thus the author has studied theformation of the Moon, the Earth and the Sun, and discovered the formation of the Sun and the real source of star energy. The authorcould also explain many solar activity phenomena such as sunspots, flares, prominences, etc.
文摘We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light （WL） associated with major flares. We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon. In total, we investigate 403 events from 1998 May 9 to 2004 July 17, including 40 X-class, 174 M-class, and 189 C-class flares. By monitoring the structure of the flaring active regions using the WL observations from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer （TRACE）, we find that segments in the outer sunspot structure decayed rapidly right after many flares; and that, on the other hand, the central part of sunspots near the flare-associated magnetic neutral line became darkened. These rapid and permanent changes are evidenced in the time profiles of WL mean intensity and are not likely resulted from the flare emissions. Our study further shows that the outer sunspot structure decay as well as the central structure darkening are more likely to be detected in larger solar flares. For X-class flares, over 40% events show distinct sunspot structure change. For M- and C-class flares, this percentage drops to 17% and 10%, respectively. The results of this statistical study support our previously proposed reconnection picture, i.e., the flare-related magnetic fields evolve from a highly inclined to a more vertical configuration.
基金partially supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federationthe Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Project II.16.3.2)+2 种基金the Program of basic research of the RAS Presidium No.28Goszadanie 2018 (No. 007-00163-18-00 of 12.01.2018)supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR)(No. 17-52-80064 BRICS-a)
文摘Data analysis of sunspot oscillations based on a 6-hr SDO run of an observation showed that low frequency （0.2 〈ω 〈 1 mHz） oscillations are locally similar to three and five minute oscillations. The oscillations in the sunspot are concentrated in cells of a few arcsec, each of which has its own oscillation spectrum. The analysis of two scenarios for sunspot oscillations leads to a conclusion that local sunspot oscillations occur due to a subphotospheric resonator for slow MHD waves. Empirical models of a sunspot atmosphere and the theory of slow waves in thin magnetic flux tubes are applied to modeling the subphotospheric resonator. The spectrum of local oscillations consists of a great number of lines. This kind of spectrum can occur only if the subphotospheric resonator is a magnetic tube with a rather weak magnetic field. Magnetic tubes of this sort are umbral dots that appear due to the convective tongues in monolithic sunspots. The interrelation of local oscillations with umbral dots and wavefronts of traveling waves in sunspots is discussed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10973020 and 11273031)
文摘It is widely believed that the evolution of solar active regions leads to solar flares. However, information about the evolution of solar active regions is not employed in most existing solar flare forecasting models. In the current work, a short- term solar flare forecasting model is proposed, in which sequential sunspot data, in- cluding three days of information about evolution from active regions, are taken as one of the basic predictors. The sunspot area, the Mclntosh classification, the mag- netic classification and the radio flux are extracted and converted to a numerical for- mat that is suitable for the current forecasting model. Based on these parameters, the sliding-window method is used to form the sequential data by adding three days of information about evolution. Then, multi-layer perceptron and learning vector quanti- zation are employed to predict the flare level within 48 h. Experimental results indicate that the performance of the proposed flare forecasting model works better than previ- ous models.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11003041)the Yunnan Science Foundation of China under grant number2009CD120the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are proposed to investigate the phase relationship between the monthly sunspot group numbers in the solar northern and southern hemispheres. It is found that （1） the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere begin two months earlier than those in the southern one, which should lead to phase asynchrony between them but with a slight effect; （2） the Schwabe cycle length for the monthly sunspot group numbers in the two hemispheres obviously differs from each other, and the mean Schwabe cycle length of the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere is slightly larger than that in the southern one; （3） the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere precede those in the southern hemisphere during the years of about 1874- 1927, after which, the southern hemisphere leads the northern hemisphere in the years 1928-1964, and then the northern hemisphere leads in time till the present.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
文摘Taking the 13-point smoothed monthly sunspot number,Ri, and the deviation of the 13 associated monthly sunspot numbers from the smoothed one, Di, as a number-pair describing the global level of sunspot activity, the evolution of the level is statistically studied for the period from the month which is just 48 months before the minimum to the minimum in the descending phase, using the observed data of Solar Cycles 10 to 22. Our results show （1） for 46 months （94%） of the studied 49 months it is found that for a given month, the distribution of the 13 pairs which come from the 13 solar cycles on a log Ri - Di plane may be fitted by a straight line with a correlation coefficient larger than the critical one at confidence level a = 5%, and for 36 months （73%） the fitting is even better, for a = 1%; （2） time variations of these two parameters and their correlations in the studied period can be described respectively by functions of time, whose main trends may be expressed by a linear or simple curvilinear function; （3） the evolutionary path of the level of sunspot activity may be represented by a logarithmic function as log/~ = 0.704 lnDi - 0.291.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.10973020, 40890161 and 10921303)the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant No.2011CB811406)
文摘The relationships between solar flare parameters （total importance, time duration, flare index, and flux） and sunspot activity （R z ） as well as those between geomagnetic activity （aa index） and the flare parameters can be well described by an integral response model with the response time scales of about 8 and 13 months, respectively. Compared with linear relationships, the correlation coefficients of the flare parameters with R z , of aa with the flare parameters, and of aa with R z based on this model have increased about 6%, 17%, and 47% on average, respectively. The time delays between the flare parameters with respect to R z , aa to the flare parameters, and aa to R z at their peaks in a solar cycle can be predicted in part by this model （82%, 47%, and 78%, respectively）. These results may be further improved when using a cosine filter with a wider window. It implies that solar flares are related to the accumulation of solar magnetic energy in the past through a time decay factor. The above results may help us to understand the mechanism of solar flares and to improve the prediction of the solar flares.
文摘The five-minute oscillations inside sunspots appear to be the absorption of the solar p-mode. It is a potential tool to probe a sunspot＇s sub-structure. We studied the collective properties of five-minute oscillations in the power and phase distribution at the sunspot＇s umbra-penumbra boundary. The azimuthal distributions of the power and phase of five-minute oscillations enclosing a sunspot＇s umbra were obtained with images taken with the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly （SDO/AIA）. The azimuthal modes were quantified with periodogram analysis and justified with significance tests. The azimuthal nodal structures in an approximately ax- ially symmetric sunspot AR 11131 （2010 Dec 08） were investigated. Mode numbers ra = 2, 3, 4, 7, 10 were obtained in both 1700 A and 1600A bandpasses. The 1600A channel also revealed an extra mode at m = 9. In the upper atmosphere （304 A）, fewer modes were detected at m = 3, 4, 7. The azimuthal modes in the sunspot＇s low atmo- sphere could be interpreted as high-order azimuthal MHD body modes. They were detected in the power and phase of the five-minute oscillations in sunspot AR 11131 with SDO/AIA data. Fewer modes were detected in the sunspot＇s upper atmosphere.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U1731124,U1531247,11427901 and U1531247)the special foundation work of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.2014FY120300)the 13th Five-year Informatization Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XXH13505-04)。
文摘Quasi-biennial Oscillations(QBOs)of the Sun have a significant meaning as a benchmark of solar cycle,not only for understanding the dynamo action but also in terms of space weather prediction.In this paper,the hand-drawn sunspot images recorded from the Purple Mountain Observatory are used to investigate the solar QBOs and the Gnevyshev gap of the sunspot relative numbers(Rs)and group sunspot numbers(Rg)during the period 1954–2011.The main results are as follows:(1)both the Rs and Rg exhibit similar periods including the 22-year magnetic cycle,the 11-year Schwabe cycle,and the QBOs modes;(2)the reconstructed QBOs of both data sets exhibit coherent behavior and tend to have a high amplitude during the maximum phase of each solar cycle;(3)the Gnevyshev gap is produced by the superposition of the QBOs and the 11-year Schwabe cycle,and the Rs is better to study the variation of the Gnevyshev gap rather than the Rg.
