The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific （Asia-Pacific） summer monsoon region （0°-50°N, 100° 150°E） were evaluated in ni...The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific （Asia-Pacific） summer monsoon region （0°-50°N, 100° 150°E） were evaluated in nine different AGCM, used in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center （APCC） multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction system. The analysis indicates that the precipitation anomaly patterns of model ensemble predictions are substantially different from the observed counterparts in this region, but the summer monsoon circulations are reasonably predicted. For example, all models can well produce the interannual variability of the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI） defined by 850 hPa winds, but they failed to predict the relationship between WNPMI and precipitation anomalies. The interannual variability of the 500 hPa geopotential height （GPH） can be well predicted by the models in contrast to precipitation anomalies. On the basis of such model performances and the relationship between the interannual variations of 500 hPa GPH and precipitation anomalies, we developed a statistical scheme used to downscale the summer monsoon precipitation anomaly on the basis of EOF and singular value decomposition （SVD）. In this scheme, the three leading EOF modes of 500 hPa GPH anomaly fields predicted by the models are firstly corrected by the linear regression between the principal components in each model and observation, respectively. Then, the corrected model GPH is chosen as the predictor to downscale the precipitation anomaly field, which is assembled by the forecasted expansion coefficients of model 500 hPa GPH and the three leading SVD modes of observed precipitation anomaly corresponding to the prediction of model 500 hPa GPH during a 19-year training period. The cross-validated forecasts suggest that this downscaling scheme may have a potential to improve the forecast skill of the precipitation anomaly in the South China Sea, western North Pacific and the East Asia Pacific regions, where the anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） has been improved by 0.14, corresponding to the reduced RMSE of 10.4% in the conventional multi-model ensemble （MME） forecast.展开更多
Regional climate models are major tools for regional climate simulation and their output are mostly used for climate impact studies. Notes are reported from a series of numerical simulations of summer rainfall in Chin...Regional climate models are major tools for regional climate simulation and their output are mostly used for climate impact studies. Notes are reported from a series of numerical simulations of summer rainfall in China with a regional climate model. Domain sizes and running modes are major foci. The results reveal that the model in forecast mode driven by ＂perfect＂ boundaries could reasonably represent the inter-annual differences： heavy rainfall along the Yangtze River in 1998 and dry conditions in 1997. Model simulation in climate mode differs to a greater extent from observation than that in forecast mode. This may be due to the fact that in climate mode it departs further from the driving fields and relies more on internal model dynamical processes. A smaller domain in climate mode outperforms a larger one. Further development of model parameterizations including dynamic vegetation are encouraged in future studies.展开更多
The reproducibility and future changes of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon were analyzed based on the simulations and projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） scenario in which anthropo...The reproducibility and future changes of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon were analyzed based on the simulations and projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） scenario in which anthropogenic emissions continue to rise throughout the 21 st century （i.e. RCP8.5） by all realizations from four Chinese models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）. Delayed onset of the monsoon over the Arabian Sea was evident in all simulations for present-day climate, which was associated with a too weak simulation of the low-level Somali jet in May. A consistent advanced onset of the monsoon was found only over the Arabian Sea in the projections, where the advanced onset of the monsoon was accompanied by an increase of rainfall and an anomalous anticyclone over the northern Indian Ocean. In all the models except FGOALS-g2, the enhanced low-level Somali jet transported more water vapor to the Arabian Sea, whereas in FGOALS-g2 the enhanced rainfall was determined more by the increased wind convergence. Furthermore, and again in all models except FGOALS-g2, the equatorial SST warming, with maximum increase over the eastern Pacific, enhanced convection in the central West Pacific and reduced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent region, which drove the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western Indian Ocean. In contrast, in FGOALS-g2, there was minimal （near-zero） warming of projected SST in the central equatorial Pacific, with decreased convection in the central West Pacific and enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent. The broader-scale differences among the models across the Pacific were related to both the differences in the projected SST pattern and in the present-day simulations.展开更多
The performance of a regional air-sea coupled model, comprising the Regional Integrated Environment Model System （RIEMS） and the Princeton Ocean Model （POM）, in simulating the seasonal and intraseasonal variations...The performance of a regional air-sea coupled model, comprising the Regional Integrated Environment Model System （RIEMS） and the Princeton Ocean Model （POM）, in simulating the seasonal and intraseasonal variations of East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） rainfall was investigated. Through comparisons of the model results among the coupled model, the uncoupled RIEMS, and observations, the impact of air-sea coupling on simulating the EASM was also evaluated. Results showed that the regional air sea coupled climate model performed better in simulating the spatial pattern of the precipitation climatology and produced more realistic variations of the EASM rainfall in terms of its amplitude and principal EOF modes. The coupled model also showed greater skill than the uncoupled RIEMS in reproducing the principal features of climatological intraseasonal oscillation （CISO） of EASM rainfall, including its dominant period, intensity, and northward propagation. Further analysis indicated that the improvements in the simulation of the EASM rainfall climatology and its seasonal variation in the coupled model were due to better simulation of the western North Pacific Subtropical High, while the improvements of CISO simulation were owing to the realistic phase relationship between the intraseasonal convection and the underlying SST resulting from the air-sea coupling.展开更多
The present study evaluates the precipitation variability over the South China Sea（SCS） and its relationship to tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies during spring-to-summer transition（April–May–June,AMJ） simulate...The present study evaluates the precipitation variability over the South China Sea（SCS） and its relationship to tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies during spring-to-summer transition（April–May–June,AMJ） simulated by 23 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 coupled models.Most of the models have the capacity to capture the AMJ precipitation variability in the SCS.The precipitation and SST anomaly（SSTA） distribution in the SCS,tropical Pacific Ocean（TPO）,and tropical Indian Ocean（TIO） domains is evaluated based on the pattern correlation coefficients between model simulations and observations.The analysis leads to several points of note.First,the performance of the SCS precipitation anomaly pattern in AMJ is model dependent.Second,the SSTA pattern in the TPO and TIO is important for capturing the AMJ SCS precipitation variability.Third,a realistic simulation of the western equatorial Pacific（WEP） and local SST impacts is necessary for reproducing the AMJ SCS precipitation variability in some models.Fourth,the overly strong WEP SST impacts may disrupt the relationship between the SCS precipitation and the TPO–TIO SST.Further work remains to be conducted to unravel the specific reasons for the discrepancies between models and observations in various aspects.展开更多
The evolution of summer monsoon over East Asia is the result of multi-scale interactions, including the large-scale subtropical high, upper level jet and regional-scale Meiyu front, vortex, and thermal heating. Region...The evolution of summer monsoon over East Asia is the result of multi-scale interactions, including the large-scale subtropical high, upper level jet and regional-scale Meiyu front, vortex, and thermal heating. Regional Climate Models should be a better way to simulate the summer monsoon evolution, because not only they can reflect the large-scale forcing through boundary condition, theirs high resolution can also catch regional-scale forcing in detail. To evaluate the ability of SUNYA-ReCM to simulate the evolution of the summer monsoon over East Asia especially in the extreme climate, a simulation of the East Asian flood that occurred during 1991 summer was performed. This simulation was driven by large-scale atmospheric background derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Tropic Ocean Global Atmospheric (TOGA) analysis. The model is capable of reproducing the major features of the monthly mean monsoon circulation, anomalous rainfall in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley and the two northward jumps of rainfall belt as well as the other large-scale components of the monsoon. The changes of the large-scale circulation during the evolution of summer monsoon are also well simulated, which include: (1) the wind direction changes from southeasterly to southwesterly in the South China Sea. (2) The northward shift of the upper westerly over East China and the Tibetan Plateau. (3) The northward shift of the western Pacific subtropic high at 500 hPa. The model also has a good simulation on the evolution of the regional-scale components of the monsoon, including Meiyu front and southwest (SW) vortex in Sichuan Basin.展开更多
The physical characteristics of the summer monsoon clouds were investigated. The results of a simple cloud model were compared with the aircraft cloud physical observations collected during the summer monsoon seasons ...The physical characteristics of the summer monsoon clouds were investigated. The results of a simple cloud model were compared with the aircraft cloud physical observations collected during the summer monsoon seasons of 1973, 1974, 1976 and 1981 in the Deccan Plateau region.The model predicted profiles of cloud liquid water content (LWC) are in agreement with the observed profiles. There is reasonable agreement between the model predicted cloud vertical thickness and observed rainfall.The observed cloud-drop spectra were found to be narrow and the concentration of drops with diameter > 20um is either low or absent on many occasions. In such clouds the rain-formation cannot take place under natural atmospheric conditions due to the absence of collision-coalescence process. A comparison of the model predicted and observed rainfall suggested that the precipitation efficiency in cumulus clouds of small vertical thickness could be as low as 20 per cent.The clouds forming in the Deccan Plateau region during the summer monsoon are, by and large, cumulus and strato-cumulus type. The vertical thickness of the cumulus clouds is in the range of 1.0-2.0 km. The LWC is found to be more in the region between 1.6-1.9 km A. S. L. , which corresponds to the level at almost 3 / 4 th of the total vertical thickness of the cloud and thereafter the LWC sharply decreased. Nearly 98 per cent of the tops of the low clouds in the region are below freezing level and the most frequent range of occurrence of these cloud-tops is in the range of 2.0-3.0 km A. S. L. The dominant physical mechanism of rain-formation in these summer monsoon clouds is the collision-coalescence process.展开更多
The Bohai Sea is a shallow semi-enclosed inner sea with an average depth of 18 m and is located at the west of the northern Yellow Sea. The climatological circulation pattern in summer of the Bohai Sea is studied by u...The Bohai Sea is a shallow semi-enclosed inner sea with an average depth of 18 m and is located at the west of the northern Yellow Sea. The climatological circulation pattern in summer of the Bohai Sea is studied by using a wave-tide-circulation coupled model. The simulated temperature and the circulation agree with the observation well. The result shows that the circulation pattern of the Bohai Sea is jointly influenced by the tidal residual current, wind and baroclinic current. There exists an obvious density current along the temperature front from the west part of the Liaodong Bay to the offshore area of the Huanghe Estuary. In the Liaodong Bay there exists a clockwise gyre in the area north to the 40°N. While in the area south to the 40°N the circulation shows a two-gyre structure, the flow from the offshore area of the Huanghe Estuary to the Liaodong Bay splits into two branches in the area between 39°N and 40°N. The west branch turns into north-west and forms an anti-clockwise gyre with the south-westward density current off the west of the Liaodong Bay. The east branch turns to the east and forms a clockwise gyre with the flow along the east coast of the Liaodong Bay. The forming mechanism of the circulation is also discussed in this paper.展开更多
Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley（YRV） is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier mu...Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley（YRV） is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier multi-model ensemble（MME） prediction schemes for summer rainfall over China focus on single-value prediction, which cannot provide the necessary uncertainty information, while commonly-used ensemble schemes for probability density function（PDF） prediction are not adapted to YRV summer rainfall prediction. In the present study, an MME PDF prediction scheme is proposed based on the ENSEMBLES hindcasts. It is similar to the earlier Bayesian ensemble prediction scheme, but with optimization of ensemble members and a revision of the variance modeling of the likelihood function. The optimized ensemble members are regressed YRV summer rainfall with factors selected from model outputs of synchronous 500-h Pa geopotential height as predictors. The revised variance modeling of the likelihood function is a simple linear regression with ensemble spread as the predictor. The cross-validation skill of 1960–2002 YRV summer rainfall prediction shows that the new scheme produces a skillful PDF prediction, and is much better-calibrated, sharper, and more accurate than the earlier Bayesian ensemble and raw ensemble.展开更多
Using NCEP reanalysis data and an airflow trajectory model based on the Lagrangian method, theHybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, the daily backward trajectorieson the height of 85...Using NCEP reanalysis data and an airflow trajectory model based on the Lagrangian method, theHybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, the daily backward trajectorieson the height of 850 hPa above the South China Sea (SCS) area are simulated from April to June. The onsetdate of the SCS summer monsoon from 1948 to 2009 is determined according to the simulated source ofairflow in the monitored area of the SCS. By analyzing the SCS monsoon onset dates over the 62 years, wefound that the number of years in which the SCS monsoon onset is earlier accounts for 13%, and the lateryears 14%, the normal years 73%, of all the 62 years. Analyses with the Lagrangian method, done incomparison with the other two methods which combine wind and potential pseudo-equivalent temperature,were performed to determine the onset dates of the SCS summer monsoon. In some years, the source of thesouthwest airflow in the monitored area of the SCS is in the subtropical region before the onset of the SCSmonsoon, so the airflow from the subtropics can be distinguished with the airflow from the tropics by usingthe Lagrangian method. The simulation by the trajectory model indicated that in some years, after the onsetof SCS summer monsoon, the SCS will be controlled by the southeast wind instead of the southwesterlyusually expected.展开更多
The climatic features associated with the eastern China summer rainfalls (ECSR) are examined in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 3 (CCM3) of the United States of Amer...The climatic features associated with the eastern China summer rainfalls (ECSR) are examined in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 3 (CCM3) of the United States of America, and run with time-evolving sea surface temperature (SST) from September 1978 to August 1993. The CCM3 is shown to capture the salient seasonal features of ECSR. As many other climate models, however, there are some unrealistic projections of ECSR in the CCM3. The most unacceptable one is the erroneously intensified precipitation center on the east periphery of the Tibetan Plateau and its northeastward extension. The artificial strong rainfall center is fairly assessed by comparing with the products of the station rainfall data, Xie and Arkin (1996) rainfall data and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (Gibson et al., 1997). The physical processes involved in the formation of the rainfall center are discussed. The preliminary conclusion reveals that it is the overestimated sensible heating over and around the Tibetan Plateau in the CCM3 that causes the heavy rainfall. The unreal strong surface sensible heating over the southeast and northeast of Tibetan Plateau favors the forming of a powerful subtropical anticyclone over the eastern China. The fake enclosed subtropical anticyclone center makes the moist southwest wind fasten on the east periphery of the Tibetan Plateau and extend to its northeast. In the southeast coast of China, locating on the southeast side of the subtropical anticyclone, the southwest monsoon is decreased and even replaced by northeast wind in some cases. In the CCM3, therefore, the precipitation is exaggerated on the east periphery of the Tibetan Plateau and its northeast extension and is underestimated in the southeast coast of China. Key words Eastern China summer rainfall - Model validation - Subtropical anticyclone - Diabatic heating This study was sponsored by Chinese Academy of Sciences under grant “ Hundred Talents” for “ Validation of Coupled Climate models” and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.49823002), and IAP innovation fund (No. 8-1204).展开更多
Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three ＂best＂ models under the Special Report on Emis...Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three ＂best＂ models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The excellent reproducibility of the models both in spatial and temporal patterns for the precipitation in China makes the projected summer precipitation change more believable for the future 100 years. All the three scenarios experiments indicate a consistent enhancement of summer precipitation in China in the 21st century. However, the projected summer precipitation in China demonstrates large variability between sub-regions. The projected increase in precipitation in South China is significant and persistent, as well as in North China. Meanwhile, in the early period of the 21st century, the region of Northeast China is projected to be much drier than the present. But, this situation changes and the precipitation intensifies later, with a precipitation anomaly increase of 12.4%0-20.4% at the end of the 21st century. The region of the Xinjiang Province probably undergoes a drying trend in the future 100 years, and is projected to decrease by 1.7%-3.6% at the end of the 21st century. There is no significant long-term change of the projected summer precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. A high level of agreement of the ensemble of the regional precipitation change in some parts of China is found across scenarios but smaller changes are projected for the B1 scenario and slightly larger changes for the A2 scenario.展开更多
The East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） is a distinctive component of the Asian climate system and critically influences the economy and society of the region.To understand the ability of AGCMs in capturing the major f...The East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） is a distinctive component of the Asian climate system and critically influences the economy and society of the region.To understand the ability of AGCMs in capturing the major features of EASM,10 models that participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5/AMIP）,which used observational SST and sea ice to drive AGCMs during the period 1979-2008,were evaluated by comparing with observations and AMIP Ⅱ simulations.The results indicated that the multi-model ensemble （MME） of CMIP5/AMIP captures the main characteristics of precipitation and monsoon circulation,and shows the best skill in EASM simulation,better than the AMIP Ⅱ MME.As for the Meiyu/Changma/Baiyu rainbelt,the intensity of rainfall is underestimated in all the models.The biases are caused by a weak western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） and accompanying eastward southwesterly winds in group Ⅰ models,and by a too strong and west-extended WPSH as well as westerly winds in group Ⅱ models.Considerable systematic errors exist in the simulated seasonal migration of rainfall,and the notable northward jumps and rainfall persistence remain a challenge for all the models.However,the CMIP5/AMIP MME is skillful in simulating the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI）.展开更多
The purpose of this study was to design and test a statistical-dynamical scheme for the extraseasonal（one season in advance） prediction of summer rainfall at 160 observation stations across China.The scheme combined...The purpose of this study was to design and test a statistical-dynamical scheme for the extraseasonal（one season in advance） prediction of summer rainfall at 160 observation stations across China.The scheme combined both valuable information from the preceding observations and dynamical information from synchronous numerical predictions of atmospheric circulation factors produced by an atmospheric general circulation model.First,the key preceding climatic signals and synchronous atmospheric circulation factors that were not only closely related to summer rainfall but also numerically predictable were identified as the potential predictors.Second,the extraseasonal prediction models of summer rainfall were constructed using a multivariate linear regression analysis for 15 subregions and then 160 stations across China.Cross-validation analyses performed for the period 1983-2008 revealed that the performance of the prediction models was not only high in terms of interannual variation,trend,and sign but also was stable during the whole period.Furthermore,the performance of the scheme was confirmed by the accuracy of the real-time prediction of summer rainfall during 2009 and 2010.展开更多
The spectral version 1.1 of the Flexible Global Ocean–atmosphere–land System （FGOALS1.1-s） model was developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophys- ical Fluid Dyn...The spectral version 1.1 of the Flexible Global Ocean–atmosphere–land System （FGOALS1.1-s） model was developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophys- ical Fluid Dynamics at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （LASG/IAP）. This paper reports the major modifications to the physical parameterization package in its atmospheric component, including the radiation scheme, convection scheme, and cloud scheme. Furthermore, the simulation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） by FGOALS1.1-s is examined, both in terms of climatological mean state and interannual variability. The results indicate that FGOALS1.1-s exhibits significant improvements in the simulation of the balance of energy at the top of the atmosphere： the net radiative energy flux at the top was 0.003 W m-2 in the 40 years fully coupled integration. The distribution of simulated sea surface temperature was also quite reasonable, without obvious climate drift. FGOALS1.1-s is also capable of capturing the major features of the climatological mean state of the EASM： major rainfall maximum centers, the annual cycle of precipitation, and the lower-level monsoon circulation flow were highly consistent with observations in the EASM region. Regarding interannual variability, simulation of the EASM leading patterns and their relationship with sea surface temperature was examined. The results show that FGOALS1.1-s can reproduce the first leading pattern of the EASM and its close relationship with the decaying phase of the ENSO. However, the model lacked the ability to capture either the second major mode of the EASM or its relationship with the developing phase of the ENSO.展开更多
Recent work has shown the dominance of the Himalaya in supporting the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）, perhaps by surface sensible heating along its southern slope and by mechanical blocking acting to separate moist tro...Recent work has shown the dominance of the Himalaya in supporting the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）, perhaps by surface sensible heating along its southern slope and by mechanical blocking acting to separate moist tropical flow from drier midlatitnde air. Previous studies have also shown that Indian snmmer rainfall is largely unaffected in sensitivity experiments that remove only the Tibetan Plateau. However, given the large biases in simulating the monsoon in CMIP5 models, such results may be model dependent. This study investigates the impact of orographic forcing from the Tibetan Plateau, Himalaya and Iranian Plateau on the ISM and East Asian snmmer monsoon （EASM） in the UK Met Office＇s HadGEM3-GA6 and China＇s Institute of Atmospheric Physics FGOALS-FAMIL global climate models. The models chosen featnre oppositesigned biases in their simulation of the ISM rainfall and circulation climatology. The changes to ISM and EASM circulation across the sensitivity experiments are similar in both models and consistent with previous studies. However, considerable differences exist in the rainfall responses over India and China, and in the detailed aspects such as onset and retreat dates. In particular, the models show opposing changes in Indian monsoon rainfall when the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau orography are removed. Our results show that a multi-model approach, as suggested in the forthcoming Global Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project （GMMIP） associated with CMIP6, is needed to clarify the impact of orographic forcing on the Asian monsoon and to fully understand the implications of model systematic error.展开更多
Impacts of land models and initial land conditions （ICs） on the Asian summer monsoon, especially its onset, were investigated using the NCEP Climate Forecast System （CFS）. Two land models, the Oregon State Univers...Impacts of land models and initial land conditions （ICs） on the Asian summer monsoon, especially its onset, were investigated using the NCEP Climate Forecast System （CFS）. Two land models, the Oregon State University （OSU） land model and the NCEP, OSU, Air Force, and Hydrologic Research Laboratory （Noah） land model, were used to get parallel experiments NCEP/Department of Energy （DOE） Global Reanalysis 2 System （GLDAS）. The experiments also used land ICs from the （GR2） and the Global Land Data Assimilation Previous studies have demonstrated that, a systematic weak bias appears in the modeled monsoon, and this bias may be related to a cold bias over the Asian land mass. Results of the current study show that replacement of the OSU land model by the Noah land model improved the model＇s cold bias and produced improved monsoon precipitation and circulation patterns. The CFS predicted monsoon with greater proficiency in E1 Nifio years, compared to La Nifia years model in monsoon predictions for individual years. and the Noah model performed better than the OSU These improvements occurred not only in relation to monsoon onset in late spring but also to monsoon intensity in summer. Our analysis of the monsoon features over the India peninsula, the Indo-China peninsula, and the South Chinese Sea indicates different degrees of improvement. Furthermore, a change in the land models led to more remarkable improvement in monsoon prediction than did a change from the GR2 land ICs to the GLDAS land ICs.展开更多
目的:建立上颌窦内提升的山羊动物实验模型,比较IBS内提骨凿与Summers骨凿进行山羊上颌窦内提升的效果。方法:大量预实验对山羊上颌窦解剖分析,结合山羊CBCT对上颌窦提升位点探讨,建立上颌窦内提升的山羊动物实验模型。对18只本地山羊3...目的:建立上颌窦内提升的山羊动物实验模型,比较IBS内提骨凿与Summers骨凿进行山羊上颌窦内提升的效果。方法:大量预实验对山羊上颌窦解剖分析,结合山羊CBCT对上颌窦提升位点探讨,建立上颌窦内提升的山羊动物实验模型。对18只本地山羊36个上颌窦左右随机分为实验组与对照组,实验组运用IBS内提骨凿,对照组运用Summers骨凿,18只山羊依据上颌窦提升高度为5,8,10mm随机分为3组,每组6只羊头,统计每组实验组与对照组的穿孔数并记录穿孔时上颌窦提升的高度。结果:建立了以山羊上颌第一磨牙腭侧6-8mm的位点进行上颌窦内提升的动物实验模型。每组实验组6个上颌窦穿孔数分别为0、1、3;对照组6个上颌窦穿孔数分别为1、5、6。实验组与对照组行上颌窦内提升高度为5mm时两者安全性无明显差异[(5.00±0.00) mm vs(4.92±0.20) mm,P>0.05],实验组与对照组行上颌窦内提升高度为8mm时两者差异显著[(7.83±0.41) mm vs (6.58±1.32) mm,P<0.05],实验组与对照组行上颌窦内提升高度为10mm时两者安全性差异显著[(9.17±1.57) mm vs (6.08±0.97) mm,P<0.05]。结论:山羊上颌第一磨牙腭侧6-8mm的位点进行上颌窦内提升效果显著,当提升高度小于5mm,两者提升效果无明显差异,提升高度大于5mm,两骨凿相较而言,IBS内提骨凿较Summers骨凿有更好的提升效果及安全性。展开更多
East Asian summer monsoon simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model developed in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP CGCM) is analyzed. The precipitation, low-level streamline field, sea ...East Asian summer monsoon simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model developed in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP CGCM) is analyzed. The precipitation, low-level streamline field, sea level pressure, low-level temperature and mixing ratio are compared with the observed ones respectively. The results show that IAP CGCM can simulate most features of summer monsoon circulation, but it still has some important systematic errors. The simulated Somali jet tends to be much weak and lies too far south. The cross-equatorial flows between 120 o E and dateline are also too weaker in the model than those in reality, while the South Asia monsoon low is stronger than that in the observation and reaches further east. At the same time, the subtropical high in the western Pacific extends too far west and north. Accompanied by these deviations in tropical and subtropical zones, the westerly troughs in the middle and high latitudes affect further southerly regions in China than those observed. All these deficiencies in simulating summer monsoon circulation result in the errors in modelled precipitation in East Asia, which include the underestimation of precipitation over East Asia in summer, the premature emergence of maximum precipitation and the further southerly rainfall belt in East Asia than the observed one. So the most obvious drawbeck of the model is the apparent underestimation of Meiyu frontal rainfall.展开更多
基金The National Nat-ural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), Grant Nos.90711003, 40375014the program of GYHY200706005, and the APCC Visiting Scientist Program jointly supportedthis work.
文摘The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific （Asia-Pacific） summer monsoon region （0°-50°N, 100° 150°E） were evaluated in nine different AGCM, used in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center （APCC） multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction system. The analysis indicates that the precipitation anomaly patterns of model ensemble predictions are substantially different from the observed counterparts in this region, but the summer monsoon circulations are reasonably predicted. For example, all models can well produce the interannual variability of the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI） defined by 850 hPa winds, but they failed to predict the relationship between WNPMI and precipitation anomalies. The interannual variability of the 500 hPa geopotential height （GPH） can be well predicted by the models in contrast to precipitation anomalies. On the basis of such model performances and the relationship between the interannual variations of 500 hPa GPH and precipitation anomalies, we developed a statistical scheme used to downscale the summer monsoon precipitation anomaly on the basis of EOF and singular value decomposition （SVD）. In this scheme, the three leading EOF modes of 500 hPa GPH anomaly fields predicted by the models are firstly corrected by the linear regression between the principal components in each model and observation, respectively. Then, the corrected model GPH is chosen as the predictor to downscale the precipitation anomaly field, which is assembled by the forecasted expansion coefficients of model 500 hPa GPH and the three leading SVD modes of observed precipitation anomaly corresponding to the prediction of model 500 hPa GPH during a 19-year training period. The cross-validated forecasts suggest that this downscaling scheme may have a potential to improve the forecast skill of the precipitation anomaly in the South China Sea, western North Pacific and the East Asia Pacific regions, where the anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） has been improved by 0.14, corresponding to the reduced RMSE of 10.4% in the conventional multi-model ensemble （MME） forecast.
文摘Regional climate models are major tools for regional climate simulation and their output are mostly used for climate impact studies. Notes are reported from a series of numerical simulations of summer rainfall in China with a regional climate model. Domain sizes and running modes are major foci. The results reveal that the model in forecast mode driven by ＂perfect＂ boundaries could reasonably represent the inter-annual differences： heavy rainfall along the Yangtze River in 1998 and dry conditions in 1997. Model simulation in climate mode differs to a greater extent from observation than that in forecast mode. This may be due to the fact that in climate mode it departs further from the driving fields and relies more on internal model dynamical processes. A smaller domain in climate mode outperforms a larger one. Further development of model parameterizations including dynamic vegetation are encouraged in future studies.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41330423, 41205080, and 41023002)the Carbon Budget and Related Issues project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05110301)the Joint Center for Global Change Studies (Project No. 105019), Beijing, China
文摘The reproducibility and future changes of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon were analyzed based on the simulations and projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） scenario in which anthropogenic emissions continue to rise throughout the 21 st century （i.e. RCP8.5） by all realizations from four Chinese models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）. Delayed onset of the monsoon over the Arabian Sea was evident in all simulations for present-day climate, which was associated with a too weak simulation of the low-level Somali jet in May. A consistent advanced onset of the monsoon was found only over the Arabian Sea in the projections, where the advanced onset of the monsoon was accompanied by an increase of rainfall and an anomalous anticyclone over the northern Indian Ocean. In all the models except FGOALS-g2, the enhanced low-level Somali jet transported more water vapor to the Arabian Sea, whereas in FGOALS-g2 the enhanced rainfall was determined more by the increased wind convergence. Furthermore, and again in all models except FGOALS-g2, the equatorial SST warming, with maximum increase over the eastern Pacific, enhanced convection in the central West Pacific and reduced convection over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent region, which drove the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western Indian Ocean. In contrast, in FGOALS-g2, there was minimal （near-zero） warming of projected SST in the central equatorial Pacific, with decreased convection in the central West Pacific and enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent. The broader-scale differences among the models across the Pacific were related to both the differences in the projected SST pattern and in the present-day simulations.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China，the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)
文摘The performance of a regional air-sea coupled model, comprising the Regional Integrated Environment Model System （RIEMS） and the Princeton Ocean Model （POM）, in simulating the seasonal and intraseasonal variations of East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） rainfall was investigated. Through comparisons of the model results among the coupled model, the uncoupled RIEMS, and observations, the impact of air-sea coupling on simulating the EASM was also evaluated. Results showed that the regional air sea coupled climate model performed better in simulating the spatial pattern of the precipitation climatology and produced more realistic variations of the EASM rainfall in terms of its amplitude and principal EOF modes. The coupled model also showed greater skill than the uncoupled RIEMS in reproducing the principal features of climatological intraseasonal oscillation （CISO） of EASM rainfall, including its dominant period, intensity, and northward propagation. Further analysis indicated that the improvements in the simulation of the EASM rainfall climatology and its seasonal variation in the coupled model were due to better simulation of the western North Pacific Subtropical High, while the improvements of CISO simulation were owing to the realistic phase relationship between the intraseasonal convection and the underlying SST resulting from the air-sea coupling.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2014CB953902)the support of the Hong Kong Research Grants Council(Grant No.CUHK403612)+4 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants Nos.41275081 and 41475081)a Chinese University of Hong Kong direct grant(Grant No.4052057)the support of a Chinese Academy of Sciences project(Grant No.XDA11010402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41305065 and 41305068)the support of the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.LTO1203)
文摘The present study evaluates the precipitation variability over the South China Sea（SCS） and its relationship to tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies during spring-to-summer transition（April–May–June,AMJ） simulated by 23 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 coupled models.Most of the models have the capacity to capture the AMJ precipitation variability in the SCS.The precipitation and SST anomaly（SSTA） distribution in the SCS,tropical Pacific Ocean（TPO）,and tropical Indian Ocean（TIO） domains is evaluated based on the pattern correlation coefficients between model simulations and observations.The analysis leads to several points of note.First,the performance of the SCS precipitation anomaly pattern in AMJ is model dependent.Second,the SSTA pattern in the TPO and TIO is important for capturing the AMJ SCS precipitation variability.Third,a realistic simulation of the western equatorial Pacific（WEP） and local SST impacts is necessary for reproducing the AMJ SCS precipitation variability in some models.Fourth,the overly strong WEP SST impacts may disrupt the relationship between the SCS precipitation and the TPO–TIO SST.Further work remains to be conducted to unravel the specific reasons for the discrepancies between models and observations in various aspects.
文摘The evolution of summer monsoon over East Asia is the result of multi-scale interactions, including the large-scale subtropical high, upper level jet and regional-scale Meiyu front, vortex, and thermal heating. Regional Climate Models should be a better way to simulate the summer monsoon evolution, because not only they can reflect the large-scale forcing through boundary condition, theirs high resolution can also catch regional-scale forcing in detail. To evaluate the ability of SUNYA-ReCM to simulate the evolution of the summer monsoon over East Asia especially in the extreme climate, a simulation of the East Asian flood that occurred during 1991 summer was performed. This simulation was driven by large-scale atmospheric background derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Tropic Ocean Global Atmospheric (TOGA) analysis. The model is capable of reproducing the major features of the monthly mean monsoon circulation, anomalous rainfall in the Yangtze-Huai River Valley and the two northward jumps of rainfall belt as well as the other large-scale components of the monsoon. The changes of the large-scale circulation during the evolution of summer monsoon are also well simulated, which include: (1) the wind direction changes from southeasterly to southwesterly in the South China Sea. (2) The northward shift of the upper westerly over East China and the Tibetan Plateau. (3) The northward shift of the western Pacific subtropic high at 500 hPa. The model also has a good simulation on the evolution of the regional-scale components of the monsoon, including Meiyu front and southwest (SW) vortex in Sichuan Basin.
文摘The physical characteristics of the summer monsoon clouds were investigated. The results of a simple cloud model were compared with the aircraft cloud physical observations collected during the summer monsoon seasons of 1973, 1974, 1976 and 1981 in the Deccan Plateau region.The model predicted profiles of cloud liquid water content (LWC) are in agreement with the observed profiles. There is reasonable agreement between the model predicted cloud vertical thickness and observed rainfall.The observed cloud-drop spectra were found to be narrow and the concentration of drops with diameter > 20um is either low or absent on many occasions. In such clouds the rain-formation cannot take place under natural atmospheric conditions due to the absence of collision-coalescence process. A comparison of the model predicted and observed rainfall suggested that the precipitation efficiency in cumulus clouds of small vertical thickness could be as low as 20 per cent.The clouds forming in the Deccan Plateau region during the summer monsoon are, by and large, cumulus and strato-cumulus type. The vertical thickness of the cumulus clouds is in the range of 1.0-2.0 km. The LWC is found to be more in the region between 1.6-1.9 km A. S. L. , which corresponds to the level at almost 3 / 4 th of the total vertical thickness of the cloud and thereafter the LWC sharply decreased. Nearly 98 per cent of the tops of the low clouds in the region are below freezing level and the most frequent range of occurrence of these cloud-tops is in the range of 2.0-3.0 km A. S. L. The dominant physical mechanism of rain-formation in these summer monsoon clouds is the collision-coalescence process.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2017YFA0604101,2016YFB0201103,2017YFA0604104,2016YFC0503602,2016YFC1401403 and 2017YFC1404000the China Ocean Mineral Resources R&D Association program under contract No.DY135-E2-1-06+3 种基金the National Basic Research Program(973 Program)of China under contract No.2014CB745004the Ocean Forecast System project of the China-ASEAN Maritime Coopeartion Fundthe Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.XDA11020301the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41206025
文摘The Bohai Sea is a shallow semi-enclosed inner sea with an average depth of 18 m and is located at the west of the northern Yellow Sea. The climatological circulation pattern in summer of the Bohai Sea is studied by using a wave-tide-circulation coupled model. The simulated temperature and the circulation agree with the observation well. The result shows that the circulation pattern of the Bohai Sea is jointly influenced by the tidal residual current, wind and baroclinic current. There exists an obvious density current along the temperature front from the west part of the Liaodong Bay to the offshore area of the Huanghe Estuary. In the Liaodong Bay there exists a clockwise gyre in the area north to the 40°N. While in the area south to the 40°N the circulation shows a two-gyre structure, the flow from the offshore area of the Huanghe Estuary to the Liaodong Bay splits into two branches in the area between 39°N and 40°N. The west branch turns into north-west and forms an anti-clockwise gyre with the south-westward density current off the west of the Liaodong Bay. The east branch turns to the east and forms a clockwise gyre with the flow along the east coast of the Liaodong Bay. The forming mechanism of the circulation is also discussed in this paper.
基金co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation (Grant Nos. 41005052 and 41375086)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05110201)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB950403)
文摘Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley（YRV） is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier multi-model ensemble（MME） prediction schemes for summer rainfall over China focus on single-value prediction, which cannot provide the necessary uncertainty information, while commonly-used ensemble schemes for probability density function（PDF） prediction are not adapted to YRV summer rainfall prediction. In the present study, an MME PDF prediction scheme is proposed based on the ENSEMBLES hindcasts. It is similar to the earlier Bayesian ensemble prediction scheme, but with optimization of ensemble members and a revision of the variance modeling of the likelihood function. The optimized ensemble members are regressed YRV summer rainfall with factors selected from model outputs of synchronous 500-h Pa geopotential height as predictors. The revised variance modeling of the likelihood function is a simple linear regression with ensemble spread as the predictor. The cross-validation skill of 1960–2002 YRV summer rainfall prediction shows that the new scheme produces a skillful PDF prediction, and is much better-calibrated, sharper, and more accurate than the earlier Bayesian ensemble and raw ensemble.
基金Special Research Program for Public Welfare(Meteorology)of China(GYHY200906016)National Key Technology Support Program(2009BAC51B01)
文摘Using NCEP reanalysis data and an airflow trajectory model based on the Lagrangian method, theHybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, the daily backward trajectorieson the height of 850 hPa above the South China Sea (SCS) area are simulated from April to June. The onsetdate of the SCS summer monsoon from 1948 to 2009 is determined according to the simulated source ofairflow in the monitored area of the SCS. By analyzing the SCS monsoon onset dates over the 62 years, wefound that the number of years in which the SCS monsoon onset is earlier accounts for 13%, and the lateryears 14%, the normal years 73%, of all the 62 years. Analyses with the Lagrangian method, done incomparison with the other two methods which combine wind and potential pseudo-equivalent temperature,were performed to determine the onset dates of the SCS summer monsoon. In some years, the source of thesouthwest airflow in the monitored area of the SCS is in the subtropical region before the onset of the SCSmonsoon, so the airflow from the subtropics can be distinguished with the airflow from the tropics by usingthe Lagrangian method. The simulation by the trajectory model indicated that in some years, after the onsetof SCS summer monsoon, the SCS will be controlled by the southeast wind instead of the southwesterlyusually expected.
基金This study was sponsored by Chinese Academy of Sciences under grant " Hundred Talents" for " Validation of Coupled Climate model
文摘The climatic features associated with the eastern China summer rainfalls (ECSR) are examined in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 3 (CCM3) of the United States of America, and run with time-evolving sea surface temperature (SST) from September 1978 to August 1993. The CCM3 is shown to capture the salient seasonal features of ECSR. As many other climate models, however, there are some unrealistic projections of ECSR in the CCM3. The most unacceptable one is the erroneously intensified precipitation center on the east periphery of the Tibetan Plateau and its northeastward extension. The artificial strong rainfall center is fairly assessed by comparing with the products of the station rainfall data, Xie and Arkin (1996) rainfall data and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (Gibson et al., 1997). The physical processes involved in the formation of the rainfall center are discussed. The preliminary conclusion reveals that it is the overestimated sensible heating over and around the Tibetan Plateau in the CCM3 that causes the heavy rainfall. The unreal strong surface sensible heating over the southeast and northeast of Tibetan Plateau favors the forming of a powerful subtropical anticyclone over the eastern China. The fake enclosed subtropical anticyclone center makes the moist southwest wind fasten on the east periphery of the Tibetan Plateau and extend to its northeast. In the southeast coast of China, locating on the southeast side of the subtropical anticyclone, the southwest monsoon is decreased and even replaced by northeast wind in some cases. In the CCM3, therefore, the precipitation is exaggerated on the east periphery of the Tibetan Plateau and its northeast extension and is underestimated in the southeast coast of China. Key words Eastern China summer rainfall - Model validation - Subtropical anticyclone - Diabatic heating This study was sponsored by Chinese Academy of Sciences under grant “ Hundred Talents” for “ Validation of Coupled Climate models” and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.49823002), and IAP innovation fund (No. 8-1204).
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No2009CB421406)the Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant KZCX2-YW-Q1-02+1 种基金National Key Technologies R & D Program Project (Grant No 2007BAC03A01)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (GrantNo 40631005)
文摘Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three ＂best＂ models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The excellent reproducibility of the models both in spatial and temporal patterns for the precipitation in China makes the projected summer precipitation change more believable for the future 100 years. All the three scenarios experiments indicate a consistent enhancement of summer precipitation in China in the 21st century. However, the projected summer precipitation in China demonstrates large variability between sub-regions. The projected increase in precipitation in South China is significant and persistent, as well as in North China. Meanwhile, in the early period of the 21st century, the region of Northeast China is projected to be much drier than the present. But, this situation changes and the precipitation intensifies later, with a precipitation anomaly increase of 12.4%0-20.4% at the end of the 21st century. The region of the Xinjiang Province probably undergoes a drying trend in the future 100 years, and is projected to decrease by 1.7%-3.6% at the end of the 21st century. There is no significant long-term change of the projected summer precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. A high level of agreement of the ensemble of the regional precipitation change in some parts of China is found across scenarios but smaller changes are projected for the B1 scenario and slightly larger changes for the A2 scenario.
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2010AA012305)the General Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41275108)+1 种基金the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB950504)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 2012YBXS27)
文摘The East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） is a distinctive component of the Asian climate system and critically influences the economy and society of the region.To understand the ability of AGCMs in capturing the major features of EASM,10 models that participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5/AMIP）,which used observational SST and sea ice to drive AGCMs during the period 1979-2008,were evaluated by comparing with observations and AMIP Ⅱ simulations.The results indicated that the multi-model ensemble （MME） of CMIP5/AMIP captures the main characteristics of precipitation and monsoon circulation,and shows the best skill in EASM simulation,better than the AMIP Ⅱ MME.As for the Meiyu/Changma/Baiyu rainbelt,the intensity of rainfall is underestimated in all the models.The biases are caused by a weak western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） and accompanying eastward southwesterly winds in group Ⅰ models,and by a too strong and west-extended WPSH as well as westerly winds in group Ⅱ models.Considerable systematic errors exist in the simulated seasonal migration of rainfall,and the notable northward jumps and rainfall persistence remain a challenge for all the models.However,the CMIP5/AMIP MME is skillful in simulating the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI）.
基金provided by the Special Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China(Grant No. GYHY200906018)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2009CB421406 and 2010CB950304)the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-Q03-3)
文摘The purpose of this study was to design and test a statistical-dynamical scheme for the extraseasonal（one season in advance） prediction of summer rainfall at 160 observation stations across China.The scheme combined both valuable information from the preceding observations and dynamical information from synchronous numerical predictions of atmospheric circulation factors produced by an atmospheric general circulation model.First,the key preceding climatic signals and synchronous atmospheric circulation factors that were not only closely related to summer rainfall but also numerically predictable were identified as the potential predictors.Second,the extraseasonal prediction models of summer rainfall were constructed using a multivariate linear regression analysis for 15 subregions and then 160 stations across China.Cross-validation analyses performed for the period 1983-2008 revealed that the performance of the prediction models was not only high in terms of interannual variation,trend,and sign but also was stable during the whole period.Furthermore,the performance of the scheme was confirmed by the accuracy of the real-time prediction of summer rainfall during 2009 and 2010.
基金supported by the Na-tional Natural Science Foundation of China (40890054,40805038)the 973 Program of China (2010CB950404)+2 种基金the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (meteorol-ogy) (GYHY200806006)the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-YW-Q11-04)the National Science & Tech-nology Pillar Program of China (2007BAC29B03).
文摘The spectral version 1.1 of the Flexible Global Ocean–atmosphere–land System （FGOALS1.1-s） model was developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophys- ical Fluid Dynamics at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （LASG/IAP）. This paper reports the major modifications to the physical parameterization package in its atmospheric component, including the radiation scheme, convection scheme, and cloud scheme. Furthermore, the simulation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） by FGOALS1.1-s is examined, both in terms of climatological mean state and interannual variability. The results indicate that FGOALS1.1-s exhibits significant improvements in the simulation of the balance of energy at the top of the atmosphere： the net radiative energy flux at the top was 0.003 W m-2 in the 40 years fully coupled integration. The distribution of simulated sea surface temperature was also quite reasonable, without obvious climate drift. FGOALS1.1-s is also capable of capturing the major features of the climatological mean state of the EASM： major rainfall maximum centers, the annual cycle of precipitation, and the lower-level monsoon circulation flow were highly consistent with observations in the EASM region. Regarding interannual variability, simulation of the EASM leading patterns and their relationship with sea surface temperature was examined. The results show that FGOALS1.1-s can reproduce the first leading pattern of the EASM and its close relationship with the decaying phase of the ENSO. However, the model lacked the ability to capture either the second major mode of the EASM or its relationship with the developing phase of the ENSO.
基金supported jointly by the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership(CSSP) Chinathe Major Research Plan of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.91637312 and 91437219)
文摘Recent work has shown the dominance of the Himalaya in supporting the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）, perhaps by surface sensible heating along its southern slope and by mechanical blocking acting to separate moist tropical flow from drier midlatitnde air. Previous studies have also shown that Indian snmmer rainfall is largely unaffected in sensitivity experiments that remove only the Tibetan Plateau. However, given the large biases in simulating the monsoon in CMIP5 models, such results may be model dependent. This study investigates the impact of orographic forcing from the Tibetan Plateau, Himalaya and Iranian Plateau on the ISM and East Asian snmmer monsoon （EASM） in the UK Met Office＇s HadGEM3-GA6 and China＇s Institute of Atmospheric Physics FGOALS-FAMIL global climate models. The models chosen featnre oppositesigned biases in their simulation of the ISM rainfall and circulation climatology. The changes to ISM and EASM circulation across the sensitivity experiments are similar in both models and consistent with previous studies. However, considerable differences exist in the rainfall responses over India and China, and in the detailed aspects such as onset and retreat dates. In particular, the models show opposing changes in Indian monsoon rainfall when the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau orography are removed. Our results show that a multi-model approach, as suggested in the forthcoming Global Monsoon Model Intercomparison Project （GMMIP） associated with CMIP6, is needed to clarify the impact of orographic forcing on the Asian monsoon and to fully understand the implications of model systematic error.
基金partially supported by the International S & T Cooperation Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2009DFA21430)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40921003)the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of the CAMS (Grant No. 2010Z003)
文摘Impacts of land models and initial land conditions （ICs） on the Asian summer monsoon, especially its onset, were investigated using the NCEP Climate Forecast System （CFS）. Two land models, the Oregon State University （OSU） land model and the NCEP, OSU, Air Force, and Hydrologic Research Laboratory （Noah） land model, were used to get parallel experiments NCEP/Department of Energy （DOE） Global Reanalysis 2 System （GLDAS）. The experiments also used land ICs from the （GR2） and the Global Land Data Assimilation Previous studies have demonstrated that, a systematic weak bias appears in the modeled monsoon, and this bias may be related to a cold bias over the Asian land mass. Results of the current study show that replacement of the OSU land model by the Noah land model improved the model＇s cold bias and produced improved monsoon precipitation and circulation patterns. The CFS predicted monsoon with greater proficiency in E1 Nifio years, compared to La Nifia years model in monsoon predictions for individual years. and the Noah model performed better than the OSU These improvements occurred not only in relation to monsoon onset in late spring but also to monsoon intensity in summer. Our analysis of the monsoon features over the India peninsula, the Indo-China peninsula, and the South Chinese Sea indicates different degrees of improvement. Furthermore, a change in the land models led to more remarkable improvement in monsoon prediction than did a change from the GR2 land ICs to the GLDAS land ICs.
文摘目的:建立上颌窦内提升的山羊动物实验模型,比较IBS内提骨凿与Summers骨凿进行山羊上颌窦内提升的效果。方法:大量预实验对山羊上颌窦解剖分析,结合山羊CBCT对上颌窦提升位点探讨,建立上颌窦内提升的山羊动物实验模型。对18只本地山羊36个上颌窦左右随机分为实验组与对照组,实验组运用IBS内提骨凿,对照组运用Summers骨凿,18只山羊依据上颌窦提升高度为5,8,10mm随机分为3组,每组6只羊头,统计每组实验组与对照组的穿孔数并记录穿孔时上颌窦提升的高度。结果:建立了以山羊上颌第一磨牙腭侧6-8mm的位点进行上颌窦内提升的动物实验模型。每组实验组6个上颌窦穿孔数分别为0、1、3;对照组6个上颌窦穿孔数分别为1、5、6。实验组与对照组行上颌窦内提升高度为5mm时两者安全性无明显差异[(5.00±0.00) mm vs(4.92±0.20) mm,P>0.05],实验组与对照组行上颌窦内提升高度为8mm时两者差异显著[(7.83±0.41) mm vs (6.58±1.32) mm,P<0.05],实验组与对照组行上颌窦内提升高度为10mm时两者安全性差异显著[(9.17±1.57) mm vs (6.08±0.97) mm,P<0.05]。结论:山羊上颌第一磨牙腭侧6-8mm的位点进行上颌窦内提升效果显著,当提升高度小于5mm,两者提升效果无明显差异,提升高度大于5mm,两骨凿相较而言,IBS内提骨凿较Summers骨凿有更好的提升效果及安全性。
文摘East Asian summer monsoon simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model developed in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP CGCM) is analyzed. The precipitation, low-level streamline field, sea level pressure, low-level temperature and mixing ratio are compared with the observed ones respectively. The results show that IAP CGCM can simulate most features of summer monsoon circulation, but it still has some important systematic errors. The simulated Somali jet tends to be much weak and lies too far south. The cross-equatorial flows between 120 o E and dateline are also too weaker in the model than those in reality, while the South Asia monsoon low is stronger than that in the observation and reaches further east. At the same time, the subtropical high in the western Pacific extends too far west and north. Accompanied by these deviations in tropical and subtropical zones, the westerly troughs in the middle and high latitudes affect further southerly regions in China than those observed. All these deficiencies in simulating summer monsoon circulation result in the errors in modelled precipitation in East Asia, which include the underestimation of precipitation over East Asia in summer, the premature emergence of maximum precipitation and the further southerly rainfall belt in East Asia than the observed one. So the most obvious drawbeck of the model is the apparent underestimation of Meiyu frontal rainfall.
