This paper attempts to explain the fundamental cause of China＇s growing imbalanee problems. Economic data confirm that the key structural imbalance problems, such as overinvestment, large current account surpluses, l...This paper attempts to explain the fundamental cause of China＇s growing imbalanee problems. Economic data confirm that the key structural imbalance problems, such as overinvestment, large current account surpluses, low consumption share of GDP and income inequality, have all deteriorated over the past few years, despite continuous policy efforts to correct these problems. We argue that the key determining factor is repressed factor cost, which is associated with heavily distorted markets for labor, capital, land, resources and the environment. These are like implicit subsidies for producers, investors and exporters. They boost growth and, at the same time, lift investment and exports. Previous policy efforts have focused more on administrative measures, which have not been sustainable. Therefore, a more fundamental solution to the imbalance problem lies in completing market-oriented re forms for production factors and allowing free markets to determine prices of labor, capital, land and resources.展开更多
In the last couple of years, social financing costs have shot up in China despite an overall capital abundance and increasing market-based capital allocation. This paper has investigated overall financial cost and cap...In the last couple of years, social financing costs have shot up in China despite an overall capital abundance and increasing market-based capital allocation. This paper has investigated overall financial cost and capital cost ratio as two measurements of financing cost, compared financing costs of different channels, examined the relationship of risk premium, financial repression, interest rate liberalization, and resource occupation versus financing cost, and addressed the problem of high non-manufacturing cost. On such a basis, specific countermeasures have been proposed. The main conclusion of this paper is： The current high social financing costs primarily result from economic structural imbalance. The fundamental solution lies in continuing structural reform and credibility system development to eliminate barriers in the transmission of capital circulation policies such as expanding equity financing, relaxing market access formalities for small and micro financial institutions, and improving the bankruptcy system to give full play to the ＂survival of the fittest＂ mechanism of the market.展开更多
The present paper explores the role of China in the creation of the current global financial crisis and the impacts of the crisis on its economy. It argues against the view that the ＂saving glut＂ in China （along w...The present paper explores the role of China in the creation of the current global financial crisis and the impacts of the crisis on its economy. It argues against the view that the ＂saving glut＂ in China （along with other Asian emerging economies） played a significant causal role in the crisis. The global financial crisis did not engender much damage in China＇s financial structure, thanks to the relatively closed, bank-centered financial system. However, the impacts on the ＂real＂ side of the Chinese economy were hard felt. Growth and employment have fallen, largely due to the decline in exports and foreign direct investment. The crisis reveals the vulnerability of the export-dependent growth pattern. Policy responses of the Chinese Government, including monetary, fiscal and social policies, have helped to stem the downfall of the economy in the immediate term, but some of the policies have not addressed the structural problems of the Chinese economy and might well aggravate such problems over time. The present paper proposes a tentative reform blueprint to rebalance the economy and to sustain long-term growth.展开更多
文摘This paper attempts to explain the fundamental cause of China＇s growing imbalanee problems. Economic data confirm that the key structural imbalance problems, such as overinvestment, large current account surpluses, low consumption share of GDP and income inequality, have all deteriorated over the past few years, despite continuous policy efforts to correct these problems. We argue that the key determining factor is repressed factor cost, which is associated with heavily distorted markets for labor, capital, land, resources and the environment. These are like implicit subsidies for producers, investors and exporters. They boost growth and, at the same time, lift investment and exports. Previous policy efforts have focused more on administrative measures, which have not been sustainable. Therefore, a more fundamental solution to the imbalance problem lies in completing market-oriented re forms for production factors and allowing free markets to determine prices of labor, capital, land and resources.
文摘In the last couple of years, social financing costs have shot up in China despite an overall capital abundance and increasing market-based capital allocation. This paper has investigated overall financial cost and capital cost ratio as two measurements of financing cost, compared financing costs of different channels, examined the relationship of risk premium, financial repression, interest rate liberalization, and resource occupation versus financing cost, and addressed the problem of high non-manufacturing cost. On such a basis, specific countermeasures have been proposed. The main conclusion of this paper is： The current high social financing costs primarily result from economic structural imbalance. The fundamental solution lies in continuing structural reform and credibility system development to eliminate barriers in the transmission of capital circulation policies such as expanding equity financing, relaxing market access formalities for small and micro financial institutions, and improving the bankruptcy system to give full play to the ＂survival of the fittest＂ mechanism of the market.
文摘The present paper explores the role of China in the creation of the current global financial crisis and the impacts of the crisis on its economy. It argues against the view that the ＂saving glut＂ in China （along with other Asian emerging economies） played a significant causal role in the crisis. The global financial crisis did not engender much damage in China＇s financial structure, thanks to the relatively closed, bank-centered financial system. However, the impacts on the ＂real＂ side of the Chinese economy were hard felt. Growth and employment have fallen, largely due to the decline in exports and foreign direct investment. The crisis reveals the vulnerability of the export-dependent growth pattern. Policy responses of the Chinese Government, including monetary, fiscal and social policies, have helped to stem the downfall of the economy in the immediate term, but some of the policies have not addressed the structural problems of the Chinese economy and might well aggravate such problems over time. The present paper proposes a tentative reform blueprint to rebalance the economy and to sustain long-term growth.
