China's economic performance in 2013 has verified that China's economic slowdown is structural rather than cyclical.Current economic growth has been driven primarily by investment in infrastructure and real es...China's economic performance in 2013 has verified that China's economic slowdown is structural rather than cyclical.Current economic growth has been driven primarily by investment in infrastructure and real estate sector.Consumption is sluggish and exports recovery is unsustainable.Financial expansion is a major instrument in offsetting the deceleration of China's economic growth in 2013.But structural root cause of slowdown remains.According to cash flow statement,balance sheet and cross-border capital flow,risks of China's financial system are accumulating under the backdrop of financial expansion.Financial system should play its role of resource allocation and refrain from stimulating demand.Future policy choice will shift from short-term macro policy to institutional reform,including political reform,reform of supply mechanism,balancing between macro-stability policy and structural transition,and reform of financial system.展开更多
Using sector-specific growth accounting method, this paper investigates the growth effect of inter-industry allocation of capital and labor in China. This paper has found that existing investment data are classified a...Using sector-specific growth accounting method, this paper investigates the growth effect of inter-industry allocation of capital and labor in China. This paper has found that existing investment data are classified according to investment entities rather than user entities and directly using such data for the measurement of capital inventory of various sectors will seriously overestimate the capital inventory of tertiary industry and lead to distorted conclusions of "structural burden" of capital allocation and its serious violation of the principle of efficiency. By excluding real estate sector, this paper has found that after the 1990 s, inter-industry capital allocation had been generally consistent with the principle of efficiency and the effect of capital allocation structure is not significant. Our estimates also found that the growth effect arising from the inter-industry allocation of labor since reform and opening up averages 0.63 percentage points, which is significantly positively correlated with residual economic growth rate and residual TFP and demonstrates a decade-long "reform cycle." According to the comparative study on the effect of labor allocation structure of 37 other countries and regions, by 2017, the effect of China's labor allocation structure will continue to remain in a relatively high stage; between 2017 and 2023, structural effect will significantly diminish and deceleration pressure will rise swiftly; after 2030, the effect of labor allocation structure will linger in a low level stage, when economy is likely to enter into a stage of low growth rate. These findings will help us better assess future economic growth tendencies.展开更多
China＇s economy is currently on a modest recovery path, but its foundation still remains fragile. According to our projections, the rate of GDP growth in 2013 might be over 8% and higher than the rate of last year. I...China＇s economy is currently on a modest recovery path, but its foundation still remains fragile. According to our projections, the rate of GDP growth in 2013 might be over 8% and higher than the rate of last year. In the next 5-10 years, the accelerating growth trends seem to reach an end, and China＇s growth tends to step into a new phase characterized by a structural growth deceleration. We predict that the potential growth rate might fall into a range of 7%-8% per year. Moreover, according to the estimates on the non-agricultural employment elasticity and labor force supply, in 2013-2017, a 7% annual growth is sufficient to achieve the full employment of urban and rural people. It implies that instead of the rapid growth rate, China＇s macroeconomic objectives for the next 5-10 years should focus more on the development quality, which refers to the improvement in microeconomic efficiency, increasing competiveness and stimulating technological innovations. Accordingly, the policy concerns should shift from demand-side management to supply-side management.展开更多
基金the sponsorships by the Youth Program of National Natural Science Fund(Approval No.71101157)New Century Talent Support Program of the Ministry of Education,2013+2 种基金Youth Fund Program for Cultural,Social and Scientific Research under the Ministry of Education(Approval No.10YJC790220)2~(nd)Youth Research and Innovation Team of the Central University of Finance and Economicsthe Young Social Sciences Talents Support Program of Beijing Social Sciences Federation in 2012
文摘China's economic performance in 2013 has verified that China's economic slowdown is structural rather than cyclical.Current economic growth has been driven primarily by investment in infrastructure and real estate sector.Consumption is sluggish and exports recovery is unsustainable.Financial expansion is a major instrument in offsetting the deceleration of China's economic growth in 2013.But structural root cause of slowdown remains.According to cash flow statement,balance sheet and cross-border capital flow,risks of China's financial system are accumulating under the backdrop of financial expansion.Financial system should play its role of resource allocation and refrain from stimulating demand.Future policy choice will shift from short-term macro policy to institutional reform,including political reform,reform of supply mechanism,balancing between macro-stability policy and structural transition,and reform of financial system.
基金Major public tendering project of the National Social Sciences Fund--Study on Accelerating Economic Restructuring and Promoting Coordinated Economic Development(Grant No.12&ZD084)Project of the National Social Sciences Fund--Study on the Pattern,Evolutionary Mechanism and Sustainable Development of China's Urbanization(Grant No.12AJL009)
文摘Using sector-specific growth accounting method, this paper investigates the growth effect of inter-industry allocation of capital and labor in China. This paper has found that existing investment data are classified according to investment entities rather than user entities and directly using such data for the measurement of capital inventory of various sectors will seriously overestimate the capital inventory of tertiary industry and lead to distorted conclusions of "structural burden" of capital allocation and its serious violation of the principle of efficiency. By excluding real estate sector, this paper has found that after the 1990 s, inter-industry capital allocation had been generally consistent with the principle of efficiency and the effect of capital allocation structure is not significant. Our estimates also found that the growth effect arising from the inter-industry allocation of labor since reform and opening up averages 0.63 percentage points, which is significantly positively correlated with residual economic growth rate and residual TFP and demonstrates a decade-long "reform cycle." According to the comparative study on the effect of labor allocation structure of 37 other countries and regions, by 2017, the effect of China's labor allocation structure will continue to remain in a relatively high stage; between 2017 and 2023, structural effect will significantly diminish and deceleration pressure will rise swiftly; after 2030, the effect of labor allocation structure will linger in a low level stage, when economy is likely to enter into a stage of low growth rate. These findings will help us better assess future economic growth tendencies.
文摘China＇s economy is currently on a modest recovery path, but its foundation still remains fragile. According to our projections, the rate of GDP growth in 2013 might be over 8% and higher than the rate of last year. In the next 5-10 years, the accelerating growth trends seem to reach an end, and China＇s growth tends to step into a new phase characterized by a structural growth deceleration. We predict that the potential growth rate might fall into a range of 7%-8% per year. Moreover, according to the estimates on the non-agricultural employment elasticity and labor force supply, in 2013-2017, a 7% annual growth is sufficient to achieve the full employment of urban and rural people. It implies that instead of the rapid growth rate, China＇s macroeconomic objectives for the next 5-10 years should focus more on the development quality, which refers to the improvement in microeconomic efficiency, increasing competiveness and stimulating technological innovations. Accordingly, the policy concerns should shift from demand-side management to supply-side management.
