Predator–prey interactions are fundamental to understanding ecosystem stability and biodiversity.In this study,we propose and analyze a stochastic predator–prey model that incorporates two critical ecological factor...Predator–prey interactions are fundamental to understanding ecosystem stability and biodiversity.In this study,we propose and analyze a stochastic predator–prey model that incorporates two critical ecological factors:prey refuge and harvesting.The model also integrates disease transmission within the predator population,adding an important layer of realism.Using rigorous mathematical techniques,we demonstrate the existence and uniqueness of a global positive solution,thereby confirming the model's biological feasibility.We further derive sufficient conditions for two key ecological scenarios:stochastic permanence,which ensures the sustained co-existence of prey and predators over time,and extinction,where one or both populations decline to zero.The interplay between prey refuge and harvesting is thoroughly examined to understand their combined impact on population dynamics.All theoretical results are validated by detailed numerical simulations,highlighting the applicability of the model to real-world ecological systems.From the simulation results,we observed that with an adequate level of prey refuge and predator harvesting,the susceptible predator and prey coexist with extensive oscillations,while the infected predator population was moving towards extinction.In addition,we have investigated the effect of disease transmission on system dynamics.Our results show that,as the transmission rate of disease increases,the susceptible predator approaches extinction,whereas,on the other hand,when it declines,the susceptible predator shows robust oscillations while the infected approaches extinction.In both cases,the prey population demonstrates robust stability due to the prey refuge.Our findings show that the management of harvesting and the prey refuge can be effective ecological tactics for disease control and species protection under stochastic environmental effects.展开更多
This paper introduces a novel fractional-order model based on the Caputo-Fabrizio(CF)derivative for analyzing computer virus propagation in networked environments.The model partitions the computer population into four...This paper introduces a novel fractional-order model based on the Caputo-Fabrizio(CF)derivative for analyzing computer virus propagation in networked environments.The model partitions the computer population into four compartments:susceptible,latently infected,breaking-out,and antivirus-capable systems.By employing the CF derivative—which uses a nonsingular exponential kernel—the framework effectively captures memory-dependent and nonlocal characteristics intrinsic to cyber systems,aspects inadequately represented by traditional integer-order models.Under Lipschitz continuity and boundedness assumptions,the existence and uniqueness of solutions are rigorously established via fixed-point theory.We develop a tailored two-step Adams-Bashforth numerical scheme for the CF framework and prove its second-order accuracy.Extensive numerical simulations across various fractional orders reveal that memory effects significantly influence virus transmission and control dynamics;smaller fractional orders produce more pronounced memory effects,delaying both infection spread and antivirus activation.Further theoretical analysis,including Hyers-Ulam stability and sensitivity assessments,reinforces the model’s robustness and identifies key parameters governing virus dynamics.The study also extends the framework to incorporate stochastic effects through a stochastic CF formulation.These results underscore fractional-order modeling as a powerful analytical tool for developing robust and effective cybersecurity strategies.展开更多
We develop and implement a Stochastic Discrete Event Simulation(SDES)algorithm to model the housing re-covery trajectory after an extreme event.The algorithm models discrete events and their underlying uncertainties i...We develop and implement a Stochastic Discrete Event Simulation(SDES)algorithm to model the housing re-covery trajectory after an extreme event.The algorithm models discrete events and their underlying uncertainties in each construction phase.Specifically,the algorithm is developed for the Government Assisted Owner Driven(GAOD)reconstruction system to simulate long-term recovery trajectory.SDES,as a flexible modeling approach,can simulate any housing recovery scenario that follows phased reconstruction.The 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha earthquake sequence in Nepal is considered the extreme event,with 796,245 buildings requiring reconstruction.We present some recovery trajectories from severely hit,crisis hit,and earthquake hit parishes,comparing them with the actual reconstruction progress.We also assess quality and improvement of reconstructed buildings using seismic fragility functions,compared to pre-earthquake constructions.Housing recovery uncertainties are dissected in relation to reconstruction pace.We conclude that the vast majority of the reconstructed buildings followed the Build Back Better(BBB)approach and missed the opportunity to pursue the Build Back Resilient(BBR)approach due to multifaceted challenges ranging from unclear policies to economic constraints.We critically assess the GAOD vs Owner Driven(OD)recovery framework and conclude that insurance-supported and technically assisted OD approach could be the most suitable model for post extreme event housing recovery.展开更多
The stochastic extended finite-fault simulation method(EXSIM)is a widely used tool in seismological research,with applications in ground motion prediction and simulation,seismic hazard analysis,and engineering studies...The stochastic extended finite-fault simulation method(EXSIM)is a widely used tool in seismological research,with applications in ground motion prediction and simulation,seismic hazard analysis,and engineering studies.However,recent studies have revealed a significant limitation:EXSIM tends to overpredict ground motions in the low-to-intermediate frequency range,particularly for large thrust earthquakes that are often characterized by a double-corner-frequency source model.To address this issue and enhance simulation accuracy,this study introduces two key improvements:(1)a novel asperity-distributed stress-drop composite fault model and(2)a hybrid application of EXSIM with the composite fault model.The proposed method is validated through its application to the 2013 M_(w)6.7 Lushan earthquake that occurred in China and six thrust earthquakes with an M_(w)≥6.5 in Japan.By comparing the simulated ground motions with recorded data,the results demonstrate that the improved method achieves consistent accuracy across the high-and low-frequency spectrum(combined goodness-of-fit:CGOF<0.35).This study significantly broadens the applicability of stochastic finite-fault simulations,enabling more reliable predictions for a wider range of seismic scenarios,including complex thrust faulting events.展开更多
A class of stationary models of singular stochastic control has been studied, in which the state is extended to solution of a class of S.D.E. from Wiener process. The existence of optimal control has been proved in al...A class of stationary models of singular stochastic control has been studied, in which the state is extended to solution of a class of S.D.E. from Wiener process. The existence of optimal control has been proved in all cases under some weaker conditions, and the structure of optimal control may be characterized.展开更多
The work proposes a distributed Kalman filtering(KF)algorithm to track a time-varying unknown signal process for a stochastic regression model over network systems in a cooperative way.We provide the stability analysi...The work proposes a distributed Kalman filtering(KF)algorithm to track a time-varying unknown signal process for a stochastic regression model over network systems in a cooperative way.We provide the stability analysis of the proposed distributed KF algorithm without independent and stationary signal assumptions,which implies that the theoretical results are able to be applied to stochastic feedback systems.Note that the main difficulty of stability analysis lies in analyzing the properties of the product of non-independent and non-stationary random matrices involved in the error equation.We employ analysis techniques such as stochastic Lyapunov function,stability theory of stochastic systems,and algebraic graph theory to deal with the above issue.The stochastic spatio-temporal cooperative information condition shows the cooperative property of multiple sensors that even though any local sensor cannot track the time-varying unknown signal,the distributed KF algorithm can be utilized to finish the filtering task in a cooperative way.At last,we illustrate the property of the proposed distributed KF algorithm by a simulation example.展开更多
In this paper,based on the SVIQR model we develop a stochastic epidemic model with multiple vaccinations and time delay.Firstly,we prove the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution of the model,and co...In this paper,based on the SVIQR model we develop a stochastic epidemic model with multiple vaccinations and time delay.Firstly,we prove the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution of the model,and construct suitable functions to obtain sufficient conditions for disease extinction.Secondly,in order to effectively control the spread of the disease,appropriate control strategies are formulated by using optimal control theory.Finally,the results are verified by numerical simulation.展开更多
This paper proposes an event-triggered stochastic model predictive control for discrete-time linear time-invariant(LTI)systems under additive stochastic disturbances.It first constructs a probabilistic invariant set a...This paper proposes an event-triggered stochastic model predictive control for discrete-time linear time-invariant(LTI)systems under additive stochastic disturbances.It first constructs a probabilistic invariant set and a probabilistic reachable set based on the priori knowledge of system uncertainties.Assisted with enhanced robust tubes,the chance constraints are then formulated into a deterministic form.To alleviate the online computational burden,a novel event-triggered stochastic model predictive control is developed,where the triggering condition is designed based on the past and future optimal trajectory tracking errors in order to achieve a good trade-off between system resource utilization and control performance.Two triggering parametersσandγare used to adjust the frequency of solving the optimization problem.The probabilistic feasibility and stability of the system under the event-triggered mechanism are also examined.Finally,numerical studies on the control of a heating,ventilation,and air conditioning(HVAC)system confirm the efficacy of the proposed control.展开更多
In 2022,Leukemia is the 13th most common diagnosis of cancer globally as per the source of the International Agency for Research on Cancer(IARC).Leukemia is still a threat and challenge for all regions because of 46.6...In 2022,Leukemia is the 13th most common diagnosis of cancer globally as per the source of the International Agency for Research on Cancer(IARC).Leukemia is still a threat and challenge for all regions because of 46.6%infection in Asia,and 22.1%and 14.7%infection rates in Europe and North America,respectively.To study the dynamics of Leukemia,the population of cells has been divided into three subpopulations of cells susceptible cells,infected cells,and immune cells.To investigate the memory effects and uncertainty in disease progression,leukemia modeling is developed using stochastic fractional delay differential equations(SFDDEs).The feasible properties of positivity,boundedness,and equilibria(i.e.,Leukemia Free Equilibrium(LFE)and Leukemia Present Equilibrium(LPE))of the model were studied rigorously.The local and global stabilities and sensitivity of the parameters around the equilibria under the assumption of reproduction numbers were investigated.To support the theoretical analysis of the model,the Grunwald Letnikov Nonstandard Finite Difference(GL-NSFD)method was used to simulate the results of each subpopulation with memory effect.Also,the positivity and boundedness of the proposed method were studied.Our results show how different methods can help control the cell population and give useful advice to decision-makers on ways to lower leukemia rates in communities.展开更多
A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncer...A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncertainties of renewable energy sources(RESs)is constructed without requiring the full distribution knowledge of the uncertainties.The power balance chance constraint is reformulated within the framework of the distributionally robust optimization(DRO)approach.With the exchange of information and energy flow,each microgrid can achieve its local supply-demand balance.Furthermore,the closed-loop stability and recursive feasibility of the proposed algorithm are proved.The comparative results with other DSMPC methods show that a trade-off between robustness and economy can be achieved.展开更多
Streptococcus suis(S.suis)is a major disease impacting pig farming globally.It can also be transferred to humans by eating raw pork.A comprehensive study was recently carried out to determine the indices throughmultip...Streptococcus suis(S.suis)is a major disease impacting pig farming globally.It can also be transferred to humans by eating raw pork.A comprehensive study was recently carried out to determine the indices throughmultiple geographic regions in China.Methods:The well-posed theorems were employed to conduct a thorough analysis of the model’s feasible features,including positivity,boundedness equilibria,reproduction number,and parameter sensitivity.Stochastic Euler,Runge Kutta,and EulerMaruyama are some of the numerical techniques used to replicate the behavior of the streptococcus suis infection in the pig population.However,the dynamic qualities of the suggested model cannot be restored using these techniques.Results:For the stochastic delay differential equations of the model,the non-standard finite difference approach in the sense of stochasticity is developed to avoid several problems such as negativity,unboundedness,inconsistency,and instability of the findings.Results from traditional stochastic methods either converge conditionally or diverge over time.The stochastic non-negative step size convergence nonstandard finite difference(NSFD)method unconditionally converges to the model’s true states.Conclusions:This study improves our understanding of the dynamics of streptococcus suis infection using versions of stochastic with delay approaches and opens up new avenues for the study of cognitive processes and neuronal analysis.Theplotted interaction behaviour and new solution comparison profiles.展开更多
Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral infection caused by the chikungunya virus(CHIKV).It is characterized by acute onset of high fever,severe polyarthralgia,myalgia,headache,and maculopapular rash.The virus is rapidl...Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral infection caused by the chikungunya virus(CHIKV).It is characterized by acute onset of high fever,severe polyarthralgia,myalgia,headache,and maculopapular rash.The virus is rapidly spreading and may establish in new regions where competent mosquito vectors are present.This research analyzes the regulatory dynamics of a stochastic differential equation(SDE)model describing the transmission of the CHIKV,incorporating seasonal variations,immunization efforts,and environmentalffuctuations modeled through Poisson random measure noise under demographic heterogeneity.The model guarantees the existence of a global positive solution and demonstrates periodic dynamics driven by environmental factors.A key contribution of this study is the formulation of a stochastic threshold parameter,R0L,which characterizes the conditions for disease persistence or extinction under random environmental inffuences.Although our analysis highlights age-speciffc heterogeneities to illustrate differential transmission risks,the framework is general and can incorporate other vulnerable demographic groups,ensuring broader applicability of the results.Using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain(MCMC)method,we estimate R0L=1.4978(95%C-I:1.4968–1.5823)based on CHIKV data from Florida,USA,spanning 2005 to 2017,suggesting that the outbreak remains active and requires targeted control strategies.The effectiveness of immunization,screening,and treatment strategies varies depending on the prioritized demographic groups,due to substantial differences in CHIKV incidence across age categories in the USA.Numerical simulations were conducted using the truncated Euler–Maruyama method to robustly capture the stochastic dynamics of CHIKV transmission with Poissondriven jumps.Employing an iterative approach and assuming mild convexity conditions,we formulated and solved a parameterized near-optimality problem using the Ekeland variational principle.Ourffndings indicate that vaccination campaigns are signiffcantly more effective when focused on vulnerable adults over the age of 66,as well as individuals aged 21 to 25.Furthermore,enhancements in vaccine effcacy,diagnostic screening,and treatment protocols all contribute substantially to minimizing infection rates compared to current standard approaches.These insights support the development of targeted,age-speciffc public health interventions that can signiffcantly improve the management and control of future CHIKV outbreaks.展开更多
In this paper,we studied the approximate sampleddata observer design for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems.Euler-Maruyama approximation was investigated in this paper because it is the basis of other higher prec...In this paper,we studied the approximate sampleddata observer design for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems.Euler-Maruyama approximation was investigated in this paper because it is the basis of other higher precision numerical methods,and it preserves important structures of the nonlinear systems.Also,the form of Euler-Maruyama model is simple and easy to be calculated.The results provide a reference for sampled-data observer design method for such stochastic nonlinear systems,and may be useful to many practical control applications,such as tracking control in mechanical systems.And the effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated by a simulation example.展开更多
Stochastic modeling of biochemical reactions taking place at the cellular level has become the subject of intense research in recent years. Molecular interactions in a single cell exhibit random fluctuations. These fl...Stochastic modeling of biochemical reactions taking place at the cellular level has become the subject of intense research in recent years. Molecular interactions in a single cell exhibit random fluctuations. These fluctuations may be significant when small populations of some reacting species are present and then a stochastic description of the cellular dynamics is required. Often, the biochemically reacting systems encountered in applications consist of many species interacting through many reaction channels. Also, the dynamics of such systems is typically non-linear and presents multiple time-scales. Consequently, the stochastic mathematical models of biochemical systems can be quite complex and their analysis challenging. In this paper, we present a method to reduce a stochastic continuous model of well-stirred biochemical systems, the Chemical Langevin Equation, while preserving the overall behavior of the system. Several tests of our method on models of practical interest gave excellent results.展开更多
In this paper, deterministic and stochastic models for schistosomiasis involving four sub-populations are developed. Conditions are given under which system exhibits thresholds behavior. The disease-free equilibrium i...In this paper, deterministic and stochastic models for schistosomiasis involving four sub-populations are developed. Conditions are given under which system exhibits thresholds behavior. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 ?and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 >?1. The populations are computationally simulated under various conditions. Comparisons are made between the deterministic and the stochastic model.展开更多
Biochemical systems have numerous practical applications, in particular to the study of critical intracellular processes. Frequently, biochemical kinetic models depict cellular processes as systems of chemical reactio...Biochemical systems have numerous practical applications, in particular to the study of critical intracellular processes. Frequently, biochemical kinetic models depict cellular processes as systems of chemical reactions. Many biological processes in a cell are inherently stochastic, due to the existence of some low molecular amounts. These stochastic fluctuations may have a great effect on the biochemical system’s behaviour. In such cases, stochastic models are necessary to accurately describe the system’s dynamics. Biochemical systems at the cellular level may entail many species or reactions and their mathematical models may be non-linear and with multiple scales in time. In this work, we provide a numerical technique for simplifying stochastic discrete models of well-stirred biochemical systems, which ensures that the main properties of the original system are preserved. The proposed technique employs sensitivity analysis and requires solving an optimization problem. The numerical tests on several models of practical interest show that our model reduction strategy performs very well.展开更多
Obtaining complete information regarding discovered vulnerabilities looks extremely difficult. Yet, developing statistical models requires a great deal of such complete information about the vulnerabilities. In our pr...Obtaining complete information regarding discovered vulnerabilities looks extremely difficult. Yet, developing statistical models requires a great deal of such complete information about the vulnerabilities. In our previous studies, we introduced a new concept of “Risk Factor” of vulnerability which was calculated as a function of time. We introduced the use of Markovian approach to estimate the probability of a particular vulnerability being at a particular “state” of the vulnerability life cycle. In this study, we further develop our models, use available data sources in a probabilistic foundation to enhance the reliability and also introduce some useful new modeling strategies for vulnerability risk estimation. Finally, we present a new set of Non-Linear Statistical Models that can be used in estimating the probability of being exploited as a function of time. Our study is based on the typical security system and vulnerability data that are available. However, our methodology and system structure can be applied to a specific security system by any software engineer and using their own vulnerabilities to obtain their probability of being exploited as a function of time. This information is very important to a company’s security system in its strategic plan to monitor and improve its process for not being exploited.展开更多
Stochastic modelling of hydrological time series with insufficient length and data gaps is a serious challenge since these problems significantly affect the reliability of statistical models predicting and forecasting...Stochastic modelling of hydrological time series with insufficient length and data gaps is a serious challenge since these problems significantly affect the reliability of statistical models predicting and forecasting skills.In this paper,we proposed a method for searching the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model parameters to predict the behavior of groundwater time series affected by the issues mentioned.Based on the analysis of statistical indices,8 stations among 44 available within the Campania region(Italy)have been selected as the highest quality measurements.Different SARIMA models,with different autoregressive,moving average and differentiation orders had been used.By reviewing the criteria used to determine the consistency and goodness-of-fit of the model,it is revealed that the model with specific combination of parameters,SARIMA(0,1,3)(0,1,2)_(12),has a high R^(2) value,larger than 92%,for each of the 8 selected stations.The same model has also good performances for what concern the forecasting skills,with an average NSE of about 96%.Therefore,this study has the potential to provide a new horizon for the simulation and reconstruction of groundwater time series within the investigated area.展开更多
The research on spatial epidemic models is a topic of considerable recent interest. In another hand, the advances in computer technology have stimulated the development of stochastic models. Metapopulation models are ...The research on spatial epidemic models is a topic of considerable recent interest. In another hand, the advances in computer technology have stimulated the development of stochastic models. Metapopulation models are spatial designs that involve movements of individuals between distinct subpopulations. The purpose of the present work has been to develop stochastic models in order to study the transmission dynamics and control of infectious diseases in metapopulations. The authors studied Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible （SIS） and Susceptible-lnfected-Recovered （SIR） epidemic schemes, using the Gillespie algorithm, Computational numerical simulations were carried in order to explore the models. The results obtained show how the dynamics of transmission and the application of control measures within each subpopulation may affect all subpopulations of the system. They also show how the distribution of control measures among subpopulations affects the efficacy of these strategies. The dynamics of the stochastic models developed in the current study follow the trends observed in the classic deterministic designs. Also, the present models exhibit fluctuating behavior. This work highlights the importance of the spatial distribution of the population in spread and control of infectious diseases. In addition, it shows how chance could play an important role in these scenarios.展开更多
For a stochastic non-minimum phase multivariable system,a multiple models direct adaptive controller is presented.It is composed of multiple fixed models with two adaptive models.The fixed models are used to cover the...For a stochastic non-minimum phase multivariable system,a multiple models direct adaptive controller is presented.It is composed of multiple fixed models with two adaptive models.The fixed models are used to cover the region where the system parameters jump and improve the transient response,while another two adaptive models are used to guarantee the stability.Utilizing generalized minimum variance design method,it adopts the stochastic system estimation algorithm with optimal controller design method to identify the controller parameter directly.Finally,the global convergence is given.The simulation proves the effectives of the controller proposed.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.32271554)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2023A1515011501)。
文摘Predator–prey interactions are fundamental to understanding ecosystem stability and biodiversity.In this study,we propose and analyze a stochastic predator–prey model that incorporates two critical ecological factors:prey refuge and harvesting.The model also integrates disease transmission within the predator population,adding an important layer of realism.Using rigorous mathematical techniques,we demonstrate the existence and uniqueness of a global positive solution,thereby confirming the model's biological feasibility.We further derive sufficient conditions for two key ecological scenarios:stochastic permanence,which ensures the sustained co-existence of prey and predators over time,and extinction,where one or both populations decline to zero.The interplay between prey refuge and harvesting is thoroughly examined to understand their combined impact on population dynamics.All theoretical results are validated by detailed numerical simulations,highlighting the applicability of the model to real-world ecological systems.From the simulation results,we observed that with an adequate level of prey refuge and predator harvesting,the susceptible predator and prey coexist with extensive oscillations,while the infected predator population was moving towards extinction.In addition,we have investigated the effect of disease transmission on system dynamics.Our results show that,as the transmission rate of disease increases,the susceptible predator approaches extinction,whereas,on the other hand,when it declines,the susceptible predator shows robust oscillations while the infected approaches extinction.In both cases,the prey population demonstrates robust stability due to the prey refuge.Our findings show that the management of harvesting and the prey refuge can be effective ecological tactics for disease control and species protection under stochastic environmental effects.
基金supported and funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research at Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University(IMSIU)(grant number IMSIU-DDRSP2601).
文摘This paper introduces a novel fractional-order model based on the Caputo-Fabrizio(CF)derivative for analyzing computer virus propagation in networked environments.The model partitions the computer population into four compartments:susceptible,latently infected,breaking-out,and antivirus-capable systems.By employing the CF derivative—which uses a nonsingular exponential kernel—the framework effectively captures memory-dependent and nonlocal characteristics intrinsic to cyber systems,aspects inadequately represented by traditional integer-order models.Under Lipschitz continuity and boundedness assumptions,the existence and uniqueness of solutions are rigorously established via fixed-point theory.We develop a tailored two-step Adams-Bashforth numerical scheme for the CF framework and prove its second-order accuracy.Extensive numerical simulations across various fractional orders reveal that memory effects significantly influence virus transmission and control dynamics;smaller fractional orders produce more pronounced memory effects,delaying both infection spread and antivirus activation.Further theoretical analysis,including Hyers-Ulam stability and sensitivity assessments,reinforces the model’s robustness and identifies key parameters governing virus dynamics.The study also extends the framework to incorporate stochastic effects through a stochastic CF formulation.These results underscore fractional-order modeling as a powerful analytical tool for developing robust and effective cybersecurity strategies.
文摘We develop and implement a Stochastic Discrete Event Simulation(SDES)algorithm to model the housing re-covery trajectory after an extreme event.The algorithm models discrete events and their underlying uncertainties in each construction phase.Specifically,the algorithm is developed for the Government Assisted Owner Driven(GAOD)reconstruction system to simulate long-term recovery trajectory.SDES,as a flexible modeling approach,can simulate any housing recovery scenario that follows phased reconstruction.The 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha earthquake sequence in Nepal is considered the extreme event,with 796,245 buildings requiring reconstruction.We present some recovery trajectories from severely hit,crisis hit,and earthquake hit parishes,comparing them with the actual reconstruction progress.We also assess quality and improvement of reconstructed buildings using seismic fragility functions,compared to pre-earthquake constructions.Housing recovery uncertainties are dissected in relation to reconstruction pace.We conclude that the vast majority of the reconstructed buildings followed the Build Back Better(BBB)approach and missed the opportunity to pursue the Build Back Resilient(BBR)approach due to multifaceted challenges ranging from unclear policies to economic constraints.We critically assess the GAOD vs Owner Driven(OD)recovery framework and conclude that insurance-supported and technically assisted OD approach could be the most suitable model for post extreme event housing recovery.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China under Grant No.2022YFC3003601National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.52478570+1 种基金Heilongjiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation Outstanding Youth Program under Grant No.J020245002the Key Research and Development Program of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps under Grant No.2024AB077。
文摘The stochastic extended finite-fault simulation method(EXSIM)is a widely used tool in seismological research,with applications in ground motion prediction and simulation,seismic hazard analysis,and engineering studies.However,recent studies have revealed a significant limitation:EXSIM tends to overpredict ground motions in the low-to-intermediate frequency range,particularly for large thrust earthquakes that are often characterized by a double-corner-frequency source model.To address this issue and enhance simulation accuracy,this study introduces two key improvements:(1)a novel asperity-distributed stress-drop composite fault model and(2)a hybrid application of EXSIM with the composite fault model.The proposed method is validated through its application to the 2013 M_(w)6.7 Lushan earthquake that occurred in China and six thrust earthquakes with an M_(w)≥6.5 in Japan.By comparing the simulated ground motions with recorded data,the results demonstrate that the improved method achieves consistent accuracy across the high-and low-frequency spectrum(combined goodness-of-fit:CGOF<0.35).This study significantly broadens the applicability of stochastic finite-fault simulations,enabling more reliable predictions for a wider range of seismic scenarios,including complex thrust faulting events.
基金Supported by the National Science Foundation of China.
文摘A class of stationary models of singular stochastic control has been studied, in which the state is extended to solution of a class of S.D.E. from Wiener process. The existence of optimal control has been proved in all cases under some weaker conditions, and the structure of optimal control may be characterized.
基金supported in part by Sichuan Science and Technology Program under Grant No.2025ZNSFSC151in part by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant No.XDA27030201+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.U21B6001in part by the Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin under Grant No.24JCQNJC01930.
文摘The work proposes a distributed Kalman filtering(KF)algorithm to track a time-varying unknown signal process for a stochastic regression model over network systems in a cooperative way.We provide the stability analysis of the proposed distributed KF algorithm without independent and stationary signal assumptions,which implies that the theoretical results are able to be applied to stochastic feedback systems.Note that the main difficulty of stability analysis lies in analyzing the properties of the product of non-independent and non-stationary random matrices involved in the error equation.We employ analysis techniques such as stochastic Lyapunov function,stability theory of stochastic systems,and algebraic graph theory to deal with the above issue.The stochastic spatio-temporal cooperative information condition shows the cooperative property of multiple sensors that even though any local sensor cannot track the time-varying unknown signal,the distributed KF algorithm can be utilized to finish the filtering task in a cooperative way.At last,we illustrate the property of the proposed distributed KF algorithm by a simulation example.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.3122025090)。
文摘In this paper,based on the SVIQR model we develop a stochastic epidemic model with multiple vaccinations and time delay.Firstly,we prove the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution of the model,and construct suitable functions to obtain sufficient conditions for disease extinction.Secondly,in order to effectively control the spread of the disease,appropriate control strategies are formulated by using optimal control theory.Finally,the results are verified by numerical simulation.
基金supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(62073194)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province of China(ZR2023MF028)the Taishan Scholars Program of Shandong Province(tsqn202312008)
文摘This paper proposes an event-triggered stochastic model predictive control for discrete-time linear time-invariant(LTI)systems under additive stochastic disturbances.It first constructs a probabilistic invariant set and a probabilistic reachable set based on the priori knowledge of system uncertainties.Assisted with enhanced robust tubes,the chance constraints are then formulated into a deterministic form.To alleviate the online computational burden,a novel event-triggered stochastic model predictive control is developed,where the triggering condition is designed based on the past and future optimal trajectory tracking errors in order to achieve a good trade-off between system resource utilization and control performance.Two triggering parametersσandγare used to adjust the frequency of solving the optimization problem.The probabilistic feasibility and stability of the system under the event-triggered mechanism are also examined.Finally,numerical studies on the control of a heating,ventilation,and air conditioning(HVAC)system confirm the efficacy of the proposed control.
基金supported by the Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia,FCT,under the project https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/04674/2020(accessed on 1 January 2025).
文摘In 2022,Leukemia is the 13th most common diagnosis of cancer globally as per the source of the International Agency for Research on Cancer(IARC).Leukemia is still a threat and challenge for all regions because of 46.6%infection in Asia,and 22.1%and 14.7%infection rates in Europe and North America,respectively.To study the dynamics of Leukemia,the population of cells has been divided into three subpopulations of cells susceptible cells,infected cells,and immune cells.To investigate the memory effects and uncertainty in disease progression,leukemia modeling is developed using stochastic fractional delay differential equations(SFDDEs).The feasible properties of positivity,boundedness,and equilibria(i.e.,Leukemia Free Equilibrium(LFE)and Leukemia Present Equilibrium(LPE))of the model were studied rigorously.The local and global stabilities and sensitivity of the parameters around the equilibria under the assumption of reproduction numbers were investigated.To support the theoretical analysis of the model,the Grunwald Letnikov Nonstandard Finite Difference(GL-NSFD)method was used to simulate the results of each subpopulation with memory effect.Also,the positivity and boundedness of the proposed method were studied.Our results show how different methods can help control the cell population and give useful advice to decision-makers on ways to lower leukemia rates in communities.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U24B20156)the National Defense Basic Scientific Research Program of China(No.JCKY2021204B051)the National Laboratory of Space Intelligent Control of China(Nos.HTKJ2023KL502005 and HTKJ2024KL502007)。
文摘A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncertainties of renewable energy sources(RESs)is constructed without requiring the full distribution knowledge of the uncertainties.The power balance chance constraint is reformulated within the framework of the distributionally robust optimization(DRO)approach.With the exchange of information and energy flow,each microgrid can achieve its local supply-demand balance.Furthermore,the closed-loop stability and recursive feasibility of the proposed algorithm are proved.The comparative results with other DSMPC methods show that a trade-off between robustness and economy can be achieved.
基金supported by the Deanship of Scientific Research,Vice Presidency for Graduate Studies and Scientific Research,King Faisal University,Saudi Arabia[KFU250259].
文摘Streptococcus suis(S.suis)is a major disease impacting pig farming globally.It can also be transferred to humans by eating raw pork.A comprehensive study was recently carried out to determine the indices throughmultiple geographic regions in China.Methods:The well-posed theorems were employed to conduct a thorough analysis of the model’s feasible features,including positivity,boundedness equilibria,reproduction number,and parameter sensitivity.Stochastic Euler,Runge Kutta,and EulerMaruyama are some of the numerical techniques used to replicate the behavior of the streptococcus suis infection in the pig population.However,the dynamic qualities of the suggested model cannot be restored using these techniques.Results:For the stochastic delay differential equations of the model,the non-standard finite difference approach in the sense of stochasticity is developed to avoid several problems such as negativity,unboundedness,inconsistency,and instability of the findings.Results from traditional stochastic methods either converge conditionally or diverge over time.The stochastic non-negative step size convergence nonstandard finite difference(NSFD)method unconditionally converges to the model’s true states.Conclusions:This study improves our understanding of the dynamics of streptococcus suis infection using versions of stochastic with delay approaches and opens up new avenues for the study of cognitive processes and neuronal analysis.Theplotted interaction behaviour and new solution comparison profiles.
基金Ongoing Research Funding program(ORF-2025-1404),King Saud University,Riyadh,Saudi Arabia。
文摘Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral infection caused by the chikungunya virus(CHIKV).It is characterized by acute onset of high fever,severe polyarthralgia,myalgia,headache,and maculopapular rash.The virus is rapidly spreading and may establish in new regions where competent mosquito vectors are present.This research analyzes the regulatory dynamics of a stochastic differential equation(SDE)model describing the transmission of the CHIKV,incorporating seasonal variations,immunization efforts,and environmentalffuctuations modeled through Poisson random measure noise under demographic heterogeneity.The model guarantees the existence of a global positive solution and demonstrates periodic dynamics driven by environmental factors.A key contribution of this study is the formulation of a stochastic threshold parameter,R0L,which characterizes the conditions for disease persistence or extinction under random environmental inffuences.Although our analysis highlights age-speciffc heterogeneities to illustrate differential transmission risks,the framework is general and can incorporate other vulnerable demographic groups,ensuring broader applicability of the results.Using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain(MCMC)method,we estimate R0L=1.4978(95%C-I:1.4968–1.5823)based on CHIKV data from Florida,USA,spanning 2005 to 2017,suggesting that the outbreak remains active and requires targeted control strategies.The effectiveness of immunization,screening,and treatment strategies varies depending on the prioritized demographic groups,due to substantial differences in CHIKV incidence across age categories in the USA.Numerical simulations were conducted using the truncated Euler–Maruyama method to robustly capture the stochastic dynamics of CHIKV transmission with Poissondriven jumps.Employing an iterative approach and assuming mild convexity conditions,we formulated and solved a parameterized near-optimality problem using the Ekeland variational principle.Ourffndings indicate that vaccination campaigns are signiffcantly more effective when focused on vulnerable adults over the age of 66,as well as individuals aged 21 to 25.Furthermore,enhancements in vaccine effcacy,diagnostic screening,and treatment protocols all contribute substantially to minimizing infection rates compared to current standard approaches.These insights support the development of targeted,age-speciffc public health interventions that can signiffcantly improve the management and control of future CHIKV outbreaks.
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(2014AA06A503)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61422307,61673361)+3 种基金the Scientific Research Starting Foundation for the Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars and Ministry of Education of Chinasupports from the Youth Top-notch Talent Support Programthe 1000-talent Youth Programthe Youth Yangtze River Scholarship
文摘In this paper,we studied the approximate sampleddata observer design for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems.Euler-Maruyama approximation was investigated in this paper because it is the basis of other higher precision numerical methods,and it preserves important structures of the nonlinear systems.Also,the form of Euler-Maruyama model is simple and easy to be calculated.The results provide a reference for sampled-data observer design method for such stochastic nonlinear systems,and may be useful to many practical control applications,such as tracking control in mechanical systems.And the effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated by a simulation example.
文摘Stochastic modeling of biochemical reactions taking place at the cellular level has become the subject of intense research in recent years. Molecular interactions in a single cell exhibit random fluctuations. These fluctuations may be significant when small populations of some reacting species are present and then a stochastic description of the cellular dynamics is required. Often, the biochemically reacting systems encountered in applications consist of many species interacting through many reaction channels. Also, the dynamics of such systems is typically non-linear and presents multiple time-scales. Consequently, the stochastic mathematical models of biochemical systems can be quite complex and their analysis challenging. In this paper, we present a method to reduce a stochastic continuous model of well-stirred biochemical systems, the Chemical Langevin Equation, while preserving the overall behavior of the system. Several tests of our method on models of practical interest gave excellent results.
文摘In this paper, deterministic and stochastic models for schistosomiasis involving four sub-populations are developed. Conditions are given under which system exhibits thresholds behavior. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 ?and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 >?1. The populations are computationally simulated under various conditions. Comparisons are made between the deterministic and the stochastic model.
文摘Biochemical systems have numerous practical applications, in particular to the study of critical intracellular processes. Frequently, biochemical kinetic models depict cellular processes as systems of chemical reactions. Many biological processes in a cell are inherently stochastic, due to the existence of some low molecular amounts. These stochastic fluctuations may have a great effect on the biochemical system’s behaviour. In such cases, stochastic models are necessary to accurately describe the system’s dynamics. Biochemical systems at the cellular level may entail many species or reactions and their mathematical models may be non-linear and with multiple scales in time. In this work, we provide a numerical technique for simplifying stochastic discrete models of well-stirred biochemical systems, which ensures that the main properties of the original system are preserved. The proposed technique employs sensitivity analysis and requires solving an optimization problem. The numerical tests on several models of practical interest show that our model reduction strategy performs very well.
文摘Obtaining complete information regarding discovered vulnerabilities looks extremely difficult. Yet, developing statistical models requires a great deal of such complete information about the vulnerabilities. In our previous studies, we introduced a new concept of “Risk Factor” of vulnerability which was calculated as a function of time. We introduced the use of Markovian approach to estimate the probability of a particular vulnerability being at a particular “state” of the vulnerability life cycle. In this study, we further develop our models, use available data sources in a probabilistic foundation to enhance the reliability and also introduce some useful new modeling strategies for vulnerability risk estimation. Finally, we present a new set of Non-Linear Statistical Models that can be used in estimating the probability of being exploited as a function of time. Our study is based on the typical security system and vulnerability data that are available. However, our methodology and system structure can be applied to a specific security system by any software engineer and using their own vulnerabilities to obtain their probability of being exploited as a function of time. This information is very important to a company’s security system in its strategic plan to monitor and improve its process for not being exploited.
文摘Stochastic modelling of hydrological time series with insufficient length and data gaps is a serious challenge since these problems significantly affect the reliability of statistical models predicting and forecasting skills.In this paper,we proposed a method for searching the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model parameters to predict the behavior of groundwater time series affected by the issues mentioned.Based on the analysis of statistical indices,8 stations among 44 available within the Campania region(Italy)have been selected as the highest quality measurements.Different SARIMA models,with different autoregressive,moving average and differentiation orders had been used.By reviewing the criteria used to determine the consistency and goodness-of-fit of the model,it is revealed that the model with specific combination of parameters,SARIMA(0,1,3)(0,1,2)_(12),has a high R^(2) value,larger than 92%,for each of the 8 selected stations.The same model has also good performances for what concern the forecasting skills,with an average NSE of about 96%.Therefore,this study has the potential to provide a new horizon for the simulation and reconstruction of groundwater time series within the investigated area.
文摘The research on spatial epidemic models is a topic of considerable recent interest. In another hand, the advances in computer technology have stimulated the development of stochastic models. Metapopulation models are spatial designs that involve movements of individuals between distinct subpopulations. The purpose of the present work has been to develop stochastic models in order to study the transmission dynamics and control of infectious diseases in metapopulations. The authors studied Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible （SIS） and Susceptible-lnfected-Recovered （SIR） epidemic schemes, using the Gillespie algorithm, Computational numerical simulations were carried in order to explore the models. The results obtained show how the dynamics of transmission and the application of control measures within each subpopulation may affect all subpopulations of the system. They also show how the distribution of control measures among subpopulations affects the efficacy of these strategies. The dynamics of the stochastic models developed in the current study follow the trends observed in the classic deterministic designs. Also, the present models exhibit fluctuating behavior. This work highlights the importance of the spatial distribution of the population in spread and control of infectious diseases. In addition, it shows how chance could play an important role in these scenarios.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.60504010 and 60774015)the National High Technology Research and Development Program (863) of China (No.2008AA04Z129)+1 种基金the Disbursal Budget Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission of China (No.2008093) the Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission of China (No.09YZ241)
文摘For a stochastic non-minimum phase multivariable system,a multiple models direct adaptive controller is presented.It is composed of multiple fixed models with two adaptive models.The fixed models are used to cover the region where the system parameters jump and improve the transient response,while another two adaptive models are used to guarantee the stability.Utilizing generalized minimum variance design method,it adopts the stochastic system estimation algorithm with optimal controller design method to identify the controller parameter directly.Finally,the global convergence is given.The simulation proves the effectives of the controller proposed.
