Abstract Using the method of stepwise multivariate linear regression (SMLR), the quantitative structure activity relationships (QSAR) of two isomeric series of taxol and its derivatives have been studied. It was foun...Abstract Using the method of stepwise multivariate linear regression (SMLR), the quantitative structure activity relationships (QSAR) of two isomeric series of taxol and its derivatives have been studied. It was found that the molar refractivity of the C3′substituent of the C13 side chain has significant correlation with its activity. We deduce that structural changes in the C3′substituents may be critical to the anticancer function. It would be useful to the design and synthesis of taxol like compounds with improved activities.展开更多
Gastric cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality and remains a major global health issue^([1]).Annually,approximately 479,000individuals in China are diagnosed with gastric cancer,accounting for a...Gastric cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality and remains a major global health issue^([1]).Annually,approximately 479,000individuals in China are diagnosed with gastric cancer,accounting for almost 45%of all new cases worldwide^([2]).展开更多
In this investigation,the Gradient Boosting(GB),Linear Regression(LR),Decision Tree(DT),and Voting algo-rithms were applied to predict the distribution pattern of Au geochemical data.Trace and indicator elements,inclu...In this investigation,the Gradient Boosting(GB),Linear Regression(LR),Decision Tree(DT),and Voting algo-rithms were applied to predict the distribution pattern of Au geochemical data.Trace and indicator elements,including Mo,Cu,Pb,Zn,Ag,Ni,Co,Mn,Fe,and As,were used with these machine learning algorithms(MLAs)to predict Au concentration values in the Doostbigloo porphyry Cu-Au-Mo mineralization area.The performance of the models was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)metrics.The proposed ensemble Voting algorithm outperformed the other models,yielding more ac-curate predictions according to both metrics.The predicted data from the GB,LR,DT,and Voting MLAs were modeled using the Concentration-Area fractal method,and Au geochemical anomalies were mapped.To compare and validate the results,factors such as the location of the mineral deposits,their surface extent,and mineralization trend were considered.The results indicate that integrating hybrid MLAs with fractal modeling signifi-cantly improves geochemical prospectivity mapping.Among the four models,three(DT,GB,Voting)accurately identified both mineral deposits.The LR model,however,only identified Deposit I(central),and its mineralization trend diverged from the field data.The GB and Voting models produced similar results,with their final maps derived from fractal modeling showing the same anomalous areas.The anomaly boundaries identified by these two models are consistent with the two known reserves in the region.The results and plots related to prediction indicators and error rates for these two models also show high similarity,with lower error rates than the other models.Notably,the Voting model demonstrated superior performance in accurately delineating mineral deposit locations and identifying realistic mineralization trends while minimizing false anomalies.展开更多
Sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics(SINDy)has made significant progress in data-driven dynamics modeling.However,determining appropriate hyperparameters and addressing the time-consuming symbolic regression pr...Sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics(SINDy)has made significant progress in data-driven dynamics modeling.However,determining appropriate hyperparameters and addressing the time-consuming symbolic regression process remain substantial challenges.This study proposes the adaptive backward stepwise selection of fast SINDy(ABSS-FSINDy),which integrates statistical learning-based estimation and technical advancements to significantly reduce simulation time.This approach not only provides insights into the conditions under which SINDy performs optimally but also highlights potential failure points,particularly in the context of backward stepwise selection(BSS).By decoding predefined features into textual expressions,ABSS-FSINDy significantly reduces the simulation time compared with conventional symbolic regression methods.We validate the proposed method through a series of numerical experiments involving both planar/spatial dynamics and high-dimensional chaotic systems,including Lotka-Volterra,hyperchaotic Rossler,coupled Lorenz,and Lorenz 96 benchmark systems.The experimental results demonstrate that ABSS-FSINDy autonomously determines optimal hyperparameters within the SINDy framework,overcoming the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional simulations.This improvement is substantial across both lowand high-dimensional systems,yielding efficiency gains of one to three orders of magnitude.For instance,in a 20D dynamical system,the simulation time is reduced from 107.63 s to just 0.093 s,resulting in a 3-order-of-magnitude improvement in simulation efficiency.This advancement broadens the applicability of SINDy for the identification and reconstruction of high-dimensional dynamical systems.展开更多
According to some main assumptions in the Rouse Formula,it analyzes the applicability of Rouse distribution in the coastal region.Based on the classical Rouse Formula,the linear form of Rouse Formula and the transport...According to some main assumptions in the Rouse Formula,it analyzes the applicability of Rouse distribution in the coastal region.Based on the classical Rouse Formula,the linear form of Rouse Formula and the transport characteristics of offshore sediment were used to take lnz/h,lnc_(a),c_(a),u,lnu and z/h as the independent variables.The multiple liner regression method was used to analyze the influence of the independent variables on the vertical distribution of sediment concentration.By using the method of significance test,the factors(lnu)that have less influence on sediment concentration among 6 variables were eliminated.The correlation coefficient between the calculated sediment concentration and the measured sediment concentration indicates that the adopted variables can reflect the characteristics of vertical distribution of concentration of fine sediment near shore under complex dynamic conditions.展开更多
This paper has compared variable selection method for multiple linear regression models that have both relative and non-relative variables in full model when predictor variables are highly correlated 0.999 . In this s...This paper has compared variable selection method for multiple linear regression models that have both relative and non-relative variables in full model when predictor variables are highly correlated 0.999 . In this study two objective functions used in the Tabu Search are mean square error （MSE） and the mean absolute error （MAE）. The results of Tabu Search are compared with the results obtained by stepwise regression method based on the hit percentage criterion. The simulations cover the both cases, without and with multicollinearity problems. For each situation, 1,000 iterations are examined by applying a different sample size n = 25 and 100 at 0.05 level of significance. Without multicollinearity problem, the hit percentages of the stepwise regression method and Tabu Search using the objective function of MSE are almost the same but slightly higher than the Tabu Search using the objective function of MAE. However with multicollinearity problem the hit percentages of the Tabu Search using both objective functions are higher than the hit percentage of the stepwise regression method.展开更多
The rock matrix bulk modulus or its inverse, the compressive coefficient, is an important input parameter for fluid substitution by the Biot-Gassmann equation in reservoir prediction. However, it is not easy to accura...The rock matrix bulk modulus or its inverse, the compressive coefficient, is an important input parameter for fluid substitution by the Biot-Gassmann equation in reservoir prediction. However, it is not easy to accurately estimate the bulk modulus by using conventional methods. In this paper, we present a new linear regression equation for calculating the parameter. In order to get this equation, we first derive a simplified Gassmann equation by using a reasonable assumption in which the compressive coefficient of the saturated pore fluid is much greater than the rock matrix, and, second, we use the Eshelby- Walsh relation to replace the equivalent modulus of a dry rock in the Gassmann equation. Results from the rock physics analysis of rock sample from a carbonate area show that rock matrix compressive coefficients calculated with water-saturated and dry rock samples using the linear regression method are very close （their error is less than 1%）. This means the new method is accurate and reliable.展开更多
Because of the difficulty to obtain the traffic flow information of lanes at non-detector intersections in most metropolises of the world,based on the relationships between the lanes of signal-controlled intersections...Because of the difficulty to obtain the traffic flow information of lanes at non-detector intersections in most metropolises of the world,based on the relationships between the lanes of signal-controlled intersections,cluster analysis and stepwise regression are integrated to predict the traffic volume of lanes at non-detector isolated controlled intersections.First cluster analysis is used to cluster the lanes of non-detector isolated signal-controlled intersections and the lanes of all signal-controlled intersections with detectors.Then, by the results of cluster analysis,the traffic volume samples are selected randomly and stepwise regression is used to predict the traffic volume of lanes at non-detector isolated signal-controlled intersections.The method is tested by the traffic volume data of lanes of the road network of Nanjing city.The problem of predicting the traffic volume of lanes at non-detector isolated signal-controlled intersections was resolved and can be widely used in urban traffic flow guidance and urban traffic control in cities without enough intersections equipped with detectors.展开更多
[Objective] The research aimed to study the significant influence factors of the population variations of oriental fruit fly. [Method] Using stepwise regression analysis, the population variations law of oriental frui...[Objective] The research aimed to study the significant influence factors of the population variations of oriental fruit fly. [Method] Using stepwise regression analysis, the population variations law of oriental fruit fly in Jianshui County of Yunnan province and the meteorological factors that caused its occurrence were analyzed. And the regression model was built. Finally, the regression model was tested on the basis of the data in Jianshui County of Yunnan Province during 2004-2006.[Result] The main meteorological factors that influenced the occurrence of oriental fruit fly were relative humidity, the lowest monthly temperature and rainfall. [Conclusion] This study will provide certain reference for the prediction researches on the time, quantity and occurrence peak of oriental fruit fly.展开更多
Aim New statistical method was applied in data analysis of orthogonal experiments to optimize the preparation of liposome. Method Particle size, zeta potential, encapsulation efficiency and physical stability of lipos...Aim New statistical method was applied in data analysis of orthogonal experiments to optimize the preparation of liposome. Method Particle size, zeta potential, encapsulation efficiency and physical stability of liposomes were selected by orthogonal design as evaluating indicators. Through three statistical methods （direct observation, variance analysis and stepwise multiple regression）, the optimized preparing conditions were acquired and validated by experiment. Results All of the four indicators were different by these analyses. The validation experiments indicated that the optimized conditions by stepwise multiple regressions were better than that by traditional analysis. Conclusion Experiment results suggested that multiple regressions could avoid the weakness of direct observation and variance analysis, but more work should be done in preparing liposomes.展开更多
Detecting plant health conditions plays a key role in farm pest management and crop protection. In this study, measurement of hyperspectral leaf reflectance in rice crop (Oryzasativa L.) was conducted on groups of hea...Detecting plant health conditions plays a key role in farm pest management and crop protection. In this study, measurement of hyperspectral leaf reflectance in rice crop (Oryzasativa L.) was conducted on groups of healthy and infected leaves by the fungus Bipolaris oryzae (Helminthosporium oryzae Breda. de Hann) through the wavelength range from 350 to 2 500 nm. The percentage of leaf surface lesions was estimated and defined as the disease severity. Statistical methods like multiple stepwise regression, principal component analysis and partial least-square regression were utilized to calculate and estimate the disease severity of rice brown spot at the leaf level. Our results revealed that multiple stepwise linear regressions could efficiently estimate disease severity with three wavebands in seven steps. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) for training (n=210) and testing (n=53) dataset were 6.5% and 5.8%, respectively. Principal component analysis showed that the first principal component could explain approximately 80% of the variance of the original hyperspectral reflectance. The regression model with the first two principal components predicted a disease severity with RMSEs of 16.3% and 13.9% for the training and testing dataset, respec-tively. Partial least-square regression with seven extracted factors could most effectively predict disease severity compared with other statistical methods with RMSEs of 4.1% and 2.0% for the training and testing dataset, respectively. Our research demon-strates that it is feasible to estimate the disease severity of rice brown spot using hyperspectral reflectance data at the leaf level.展开更多
In this paper, based on the theory of parameter estimation, we give a selection method and, in a sense of a good character of the parameter estimation, we think that it is very reasonable. Moreover, we offer a calcula...In this paper, based on the theory of parameter estimation, we give a selection method and, in a sense of a good character of the parameter estimation, we think that it is very reasonable. Moreover, we offer a calculation method of selection statistic and an applied example.展开更多
Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration （EMC） which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources （NPSs）. Pollutant loads could also be calcu...Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration （EMC） which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources （NPSs）. Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runoff coefficient. In this study, runoff quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression （MLR） to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.展开更多
Understanding the spatial-temporal dynamics of crop nitrogen(N)use efficiency(NUE)and the relationship with explanatory environmental variables can support land-use management and policymaking.Nevertheless,the applica...Understanding the spatial-temporal dynamics of crop nitrogen(N)use efficiency(NUE)and the relationship with explanatory environmental variables can support land-use management and policymaking.Nevertheless,the application of statistical models for evaluating the explanatory variables of space-time variation in crop NUE is still under-researched.In this study,stepwise multiple linear regression(SMLR)and Random Forest(RF)were used to evaluate the spatial and temporal variation of NUE indicators(i.e.,partial factor productivity of N(PFPN);partial nutrient balance of N(PNBN))at county scale in Northeast China(Heilongjiang,Liaoning and Jilin provinces)from 1990 to 2015.Explanatory variables included agricultural management practices,topography,climate,economy,soil and crop types.Results revealed that the PFPN was higher in the northern parts and lower in the center of the Northeast China and PNBN increased from southern to northern parts during the 1990–2015 period.The NUE indicators decreased with time in most counties during the study period.The model efficiency coefficients of the SMLR and RF models were 0.44 and 0.84 for PFPN,and 0.67 and 0.89 for PNBN,respectively.The RF model had higher relative importance of soil and climatic covariates and lower relative importance of crop covariates compared to the SMLR model.The planting area index of vegetables and beans,soil clay content,saturated water content,enhanced vegetation index in November&December,soil bulk density,and annual minimum temperature were the main explanatory variables for both NUE indicators.This is the first study to show the quantitative relative importance of explanatory variables for NUE at a county level in Northeast China using RF and SMLR.This novel study gives reference measurements to improve crop NUE which is one of the most effective means of managing N for sustainable development,ensuring food security,alleviating environmental degradation and increasing farmer’s profitability.展开更多
Many properties of fruit are influenced by plant nutrition. Fruit firmness is one of the most important fruit characteristics and determines post-harvest life of the fruit, in recent decades, artificial intelligence s...Many properties of fruit are influenced by plant nutrition. Fruit firmness is one of the most important fruit characteristics and determines post-harvest life of the fruit, in recent decades, artificial intelligence systems were employed for developing predictive models to estimate and predict many agriculture processes. In the present study, the predictive capabilities of multiple linear regressions （MLR） and artificial neural networks （ANNs） are evaluated to estimate fruit firmness in six months, including each of nutrients concentrations （nitrogen （N）, potassium （K）, calcium （Ca） and magnesium （Mg）） alone （P1）, com- bination of nutrients concentrations （P2）, nutrient concentration ratios alone （P3）, and combination of nutrient concentrations and nutrient concentration ratios （P4）. The results showed that MLR model estimated fruit firmness more accuracy than ANN model in three datasets （P1, P2 and P4）. However, the application of P3 （N/Ca ratio） as the input dataset in ANN model improved the prediction of fruit firmness than the MLR model. Correlation coefficient and root mean squared error （RMSE） were 0.850 and 0.539 between the measured and the estimated data by the ANN model, respectively. Generally, the ANN model showed greater potential in determining the relationship between 6-mon-fruit firmness and nutrients concentration.展开更多
This paper presents an analysis to forecast the loads of an isolated area where the history of load is not available or the history may not represent the realistic demand of electricity. The analysis is done through l...This paper presents an analysis to forecast the loads of an isolated area where the history of load is not available or the history may not represent the realistic demand of electricity. The analysis is done through linear regression and based on the identification of factors on which electrical load growth depends. To determine the identification factors, areas are selected whose histories of load growth rate known and the load growth deciding factors are similar to those of the isolated area. The proposed analysis is applied to an isolated area of Bangladesh, called Swandip where a past history of electrical load demand is not available and also there is no possibility of connecting the area with the main land grid system.展开更多
This article studies parametric component and nonparametric component estimators in a semiparametric regression model with linear time series errors; their r-th mean consistency and complete consistency are obtained u...This article studies parametric component and nonparametric component estimators in a semiparametric regression model with linear time series errors; their r-th mean consistency and complete consistency are obtained under suitable conditions. Finally, the author shows that the usual weight functions based on nearest neighbor methods satisfy the designed assumptions imposed.展开更多
The construction method of background value is improved in the original multi-variable grey model （MGM（1,m）） from its source of construction errors. The MGM（1,m） with optimized background value is used to elimin...The construction method of background value is improved in the original multi-variable grey model （MGM（1,m）） from its source of construction errors. The MGM（1,m） with optimized background value is used to eliminate the random fluctuations or errors of the observational data of all variables, and the combined prediction model together with the multiple linear regression is established in order to improve the simulation and prediction accuracy of the combined model. Finally, a combined model of the MGM（1,2） with optimized background value and the binary linear regression is constructed by an example. The results show that the model has good effects for simulation and prediction.展开更多
Multiple linear regression （MLR） method was applied to quantify the effects of the net heat flux （NHF）, the net freshwater flux （NFF） and the wind stress on the mixed layer depth （MLD） of the South China Sea ...Multiple linear regression （MLR） method was applied to quantify the effects of the net heat flux （NHF）, the net freshwater flux （NFF） and the wind stress on the mixed layer depth （MLD） of the South China Sea （SCS） based on the simple ocean data assimilation （SODA） dataset. The spatio-temporal distributions of the MLD, the buoyancy flux （combining the NHF and the NFF） and the wind stress of the SCS were presented. Then using an oceanic vertical mixing model, the MLD after a certain time under the same initial conditions but various pairs of boundary conditions （the three factors） was simulated. Applying the MLR method to the results, regression equations which modeling the relationship between the simulated MLD and the three factors were calculated. The equations indicate that when the NHF was negative, it was the primary driver of the mixed layer deepening; and when the NHF was positive, the wind stress played a more important role than that of the NHF while the NFF had the least effect. When the NHF was positive, the relative quantitative effects of the wind stress, the NHF, and the NFF were about i0, 6 and 2. The above conclusions were applied to explaining the spatio-temporal distributions of the MLD in the SCS and thus proved to be valid.展开更多
Partial least squares （PLS） regression was applied to the Lunar Soft Characterization Consortium （LSCC） dataset for spectral estimation of TiO2. The LSCC dataset was split into a number of subsets including the lo...Partial least squares （PLS） regression was applied to the Lunar Soft Characterization Consortium （LSCC） dataset for spectral estimation of TiO2. The LSCC dataset was split into a number of subsets including the low-Ti, high-Ti, total mare soils, total highland, Apollo 16, and Apollo 14 soils to investigate the effects of interfering minerals and nonlinearity on the PLS performance. The PLS weight loading vectors were analyzed through stepwise multiple regression analysis （SMRA） to identify mineral species driving and interfering the PLS performance. PLS exhibits high performance for estimating TiO2 for the LSCC low-Ti and high-Ti mare samples and both groups analyzed together. The results suggest that while the dominant TiO2-bearing minerals are few, additional PLS factors are required to compensate the effects on the important PLS factors of minerals that are not highly corrected to TiO2, to accommodate nonlinear relationships between reflectance and TiO2, and to correct inconsistent mineral-TiO2 correlations between the high-Ti and iow-Ti mare samples. Analysis of the LSCC highland soil samples indicates that the Apollo 16 soils are responsible for the large errors of TiO2 estimates when the soils are modeled with other subgroups. For the LSCC Apollo 16 samples, the dominant spectral effects of plagioclase over other dark minerals are primarily responsible for large errors of estimated TiO2. For the Apollo 14 soils, more accurate estimation for TiO2 is attributed to the posi- tive correlation between a major TiOe-bearing component and TiO2, explaining why the Apollo 14 soils follow the regression trend when analyzed with other soils groups.展开更多
文摘Abstract Using the method of stepwise multivariate linear regression (SMLR), the quantitative structure activity relationships (QSAR) of two isomeric series of taxol and its derivatives have been studied. It was found that the molar refractivity of the C3′substituent of the C13 side chain has significant correlation with its activity. We deduce that structural changes in the C3′substituents may be critical to the anticancer function. It would be useful to the design and synthesis of taxol like compounds with improved activities.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(23ZR1463600)Shanghai Pudong New Area Health Commission Research Project(PW2021A-69)Research Project of Clinical Research Center of Shanghai Health Medical University(22MC2022002)。
文摘Gastric cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality and remains a major global health issue^([1]).Annually,approximately 479,000individuals in China are diagnosed with gastric cancer,accounting for almost 45%of all new cases worldwide^([2]).
文摘In this investigation,the Gradient Boosting(GB),Linear Regression(LR),Decision Tree(DT),and Voting algo-rithms were applied to predict the distribution pattern of Au geochemical data.Trace and indicator elements,including Mo,Cu,Pb,Zn,Ag,Ni,Co,Mn,Fe,and As,were used with these machine learning algorithms(MLAs)to predict Au concentration values in the Doostbigloo porphyry Cu-Au-Mo mineralization area.The performance of the models was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)metrics.The proposed ensemble Voting algorithm outperformed the other models,yielding more ac-curate predictions according to both metrics.The predicted data from the GB,LR,DT,and Voting MLAs were modeled using the Concentration-Area fractal method,and Au geochemical anomalies were mapped.To compare and validate the results,factors such as the location of the mineral deposits,their surface extent,and mineralization trend were considered.The results indicate that integrating hybrid MLAs with fractal modeling signifi-cantly improves geochemical prospectivity mapping.Among the four models,three(DT,GB,Voting)accurately identified both mineral deposits.The LR model,however,only identified Deposit I(central),and its mineralization trend diverged from the field data.The GB and Voting models produced similar results,with their final maps derived from fractal modeling showing the same anomalous areas.The anomaly boundaries identified by these two models are consistent with the two known reserves in the region.The results and plots related to prediction indicators and error rates for these two models also show high similarity,with lower error rates than the other models.Notably,the Voting model demonstrated superior performance in accurately delineating mineral deposit locations and identifying realistic mineralization trends while minimizing false anomalies.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12172291,12472357,and 12232015)the Shaanxi Province Outstanding Youth Fund Project(No.2024JC-JCQN-05)the 111 Project(No.BP0719007)。
文摘Sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics(SINDy)has made significant progress in data-driven dynamics modeling.However,determining appropriate hyperparameters and addressing the time-consuming symbolic regression process remain substantial challenges.This study proposes the adaptive backward stepwise selection of fast SINDy(ABSS-FSINDy),which integrates statistical learning-based estimation and technical advancements to significantly reduce simulation time.This approach not only provides insights into the conditions under which SINDy performs optimally but also highlights potential failure points,particularly in the context of backward stepwise selection(BSS).By decoding predefined features into textual expressions,ABSS-FSINDy significantly reduces the simulation time compared with conventional symbolic regression methods.We validate the proposed method through a series of numerical experiments involving both planar/spatial dynamics and high-dimensional chaotic systems,including Lotka-Volterra,hyperchaotic Rossler,coupled Lorenz,and Lorenz 96 benchmark systems.The experimental results demonstrate that ABSS-FSINDy autonomously determines optimal hyperparameters within the SINDy framework,overcoming the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional simulations.This improvement is substantial across both lowand high-dimensional systems,yielding efficiency gains of one to three orders of magnitude.For instance,in a 20D dynamical system,the simulation time is reduced from 107.63 s to just 0.093 s,resulting in a 3-order-of-magnitude improvement in simulation efficiency.This advancement broadens the applicability of SINDy for the identification and reconstruction of high-dimensional dynamical systems.
文摘According to some main assumptions in the Rouse Formula,it analyzes the applicability of Rouse distribution in the coastal region.Based on the classical Rouse Formula,the linear form of Rouse Formula and the transport characteristics of offshore sediment were used to take lnz/h,lnc_(a),c_(a),u,lnu and z/h as the independent variables.The multiple liner regression method was used to analyze the influence of the independent variables on the vertical distribution of sediment concentration.By using the method of significance test,the factors(lnu)that have less influence on sediment concentration among 6 variables were eliminated.The correlation coefficient between the calculated sediment concentration and the measured sediment concentration indicates that the adopted variables can reflect the characteristics of vertical distribution of concentration of fine sediment near shore under complex dynamic conditions.
文摘This paper has compared variable selection method for multiple linear regression models that have both relative and non-relative variables in full model when predictor variables are highly correlated 0.999 . In this study two objective functions used in the Tabu Search are mean square error （MSE） and the mean absolute error （MAE）. The results of Tabu Search are compared with the results obtained by stepwise regression method based on the hit percentage criterion. The simulations cover the both cases, without and with multicollinearity problems. For each situation, 1,000 iterations are examined by applying a different sample size n = 25 and 100 at 0.05 level of significance. Without multicollinearity problem, the hit percentages of the stepwise regression method and Tabu Search using the objective function of MSE are almost the same but slightly higher than the Tabu Search using the objective function of MAE. However with multicollinearity problem the hit percentages of the Tabu Search using both objective functions are higher than the hit percentage of the stepwise regression method.
基金supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China (Grant Noss 40739907 and 40774064)National Science and Technology Major Project (Grant No. 2008ZX05025-003)
文摘The rock matrix bulk modulus or its inverse, the compressive coefficient, is an important input parameter for fluid substitution by the Biot-Gassmann equation in reservoir prediction. However, it is not easy to accurately estimate the bulk modulus by using conventional methods. In this paper, we present a new linear regression equation for calculating the parameter. In order to get this equation, we first derive a simplified Gassmann equation by using a reasonable assumption in which the compressive coefficient of the saturated pore fluid is much greater than the rock matrix, and, second, we use the Eshelby- Walsh relation to replace the equivalent modulus of a dry rock in the Gassmann equation. Results from the rock physics analysis of rock sample from a carbonate area show that rock matrix compressive coefficients calculated with water-saturated and dry rock samples using the linear regression method are very close （their error is less than 1%）. This means the new method is accurate and reliable.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50378016).
文摘Because of the difficulty to obtain the traffic flow information of lanes at non-detector intersections in most metropolises of the world,based on the relationships between the lanes of signal-controlled intersections,cluster analysis and stepwise regression are integrated to predict the traffic volume of lanes at non-detector isolated controlled intersections.First cluster analysis is used to cluster the lanes of non-detector isolated signal-controlled intersections and the lanes of all signal-controlled intersections with detectors.Then, by the results of cluster analysis,the traffic volume samples are selected randomly and stepwise regression is used to predict the traffic volume of lanes at non-detector isolated signal-controlled intersections.The method is tested by the traffic volume data of lanes of the road network of Nanjing city.The problem of predicting the traffic volume of lanes at non-detector isolated signal-controlled intersections was resolved and can be widely used in urban traffic flow guidance and urban traffic control in cities without enough intersections equipped with detectors.
基金Supported by National Key Technology R&D Program in the11th Five Year Plan of China(2006BAD10A14)~~
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to study the significant influence factors of the population variations of oriental fruit fly. [Method] Using stepwise regression analysis, the population variations law of oriental fruit fly in Jianshui County of Yunnan province and the meteorological factors that caused its occurrence were analyzed. And the regression model was built. Finally, the regression model was tested on the basis of the data in Jianshui County of Yunnan Province during 2004-2006.[Result] The main meteorological factors that influenced the occurrence of oriental fruit fly were relative humidity, the lowest monthly temperature and rainfall. [Conclusion] This study will provide certain reference for the prediction researches on the time, quantity and occurrence peak of oriental fruit fly.
文摘Aim New statistical method was applied in data analysis of orthogonal experiments to optimize the preparation of liposome. Method Particle size, zeta potential, encapsulation efficiency and physical stability of liposomes were selected by orthogonal design as evaluating indicators. Through three statistical methods （direct observation, variance analysis and stepwise multiple regression）, the optimized preparing conditions were acquired and validated by experiment. Results All of the four indicators were different by these analyses. The validation experiments indicated that the optimized conditions by stepwise multiple regressions were better than that by traditional analysis. Conclusion Experiment results suggested that multiple regressions could avoid the weakness of direct observation and variance analysis, but more work should be done in preparing liposomes.
基金the Hi-Tech Research and Development Program (863) of China (No. 2006AA10Z203)the National Scienceand Technology Task Force Project (No. 2006BAD10A01), China
文摘Detecting plant health conditions plays a key role in farm pest management and crop protection. In this study, measurement of hyperspectral leaf reflectance in rice crop (Oryzasativa L.) was conducted on groups of healthy and infected leaves by the fungus Bipolaris oryzae (Helminthosporium oryzae Breda. de Hann) through the wavelength range from 350 to 2 500 nm. The percentage of leaf surface lesions was estimated and defined as the disease severity. Statistical methods like multiple stepwise regression, principal component analysis and partial least-square regression were utilized to calculate and estimate the disease severity of rice brown spot at the leaf level. Our results revealed that multiple stepwise linear regressions could efficiently estimate disease severity with three wavebands in seven steps. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) for training (n=210) and testing (n=53) dataset were 6.5% and 5.8%, respectively. Principal component analysis showed that the first principal component could explain approximately 80% of the variance of the original hyperspectral reflectance. The regression model with the first two principal components predicted a disease severity with RMSEs of 16.3% and 13.9% for the training and testing dataset, respec-tively. Partial least-square regression with seven extracted factors could most effectively predict disease severity compared with other statistical methods with RMSEs of 4.1% and 2.0% for the training and testing dataset, respectively. Our research demon-strates that it is feasible to estimate the disease severity of rice brown spot using hyperspectral reflectance data at the leaf level.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Education Committee
文摘In this paper, based on the theory of parameter estimation, we give a selection method and, in a sense of a good character of the parameter estimation, we think that it is very reasonable. Moreover, we offer a calculation method of selection statistic and an applied example.
基金provided by the Korean Ministry of Environment and Eco Star Project
文摘Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration （EMC） which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources （NPSs）. Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runoff coefficient. In this study, runoff quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression （MLR） to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.
基金the China Scholarship Council(CSC)(201903250115)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31972515)the China Agriculture Research System of MOF and MARA(CARS-09-P31).
文摘Understanding the spatial-temporal dynamics of crop nitrogen(N)use efficiency(NUE)and the relationship with explanatory environmental variables can support land-use management and policymaking.Nevertheless,the application of statistical models for evaluating the explanatory variables of space-time variation in crop NUE is still under-researched.In this study,stepwise multiple linear regression(SMLR)and Random Forest(RF)were used to evaluate the spatial and temporal variation of NUE indicators(i.e.,partial factor productivity of N(PFPN);partial nutrient balance of N(PNBN))at county scale in Northeast China(Heilongjiang,Liaoning and Jilin provinces)from 1990 to 2015.Explanatory variables included agricultural management practices,topography,climate,economy,soil and crop types.Results revealed that the PFPN was higher in the northern parts and lower in the center of the Northeast China and PNBN increased from southern to northern parts during the 1990–2015 period.The NUE indicators decreased with time in most counties during the study period.The model efficiency coefficients of the SMLR and RF models were 0.44 and 0.84 for PFPN,and 0.67 and 0.89 for PNBN,respectively.The RF model had higher relative importance of soil and climatic covariates and lower relative importance of crop covariates compared to the SMLR model.The planting area index of vegetables and beans,soil clay content,saturated water content,enhanced vegetation index in November&December,soil bulk density,and annual minimum temperature were the main explanatory variables for both NUE indicators.This is the first study to show the quantitative relative importance of explanatory variables for NUE at a county level in Northeast China using RF and SMLR.This novel study gives reference measurements to improve crop NUE which is one of the most effective means of managing N for sustainable development,ensuring food security,alleviating environmental degradation and increasing farmer’s profitability.
文摘Many properties of fruit are influenced by plant nutrition. Fruit firmness is one of the most important fruit characteristics and determines post-harvest life of the fruit, in recent decades, artificial intelligence systems were employed for developing predictive models to estimate and predict many agriculture processes. In the present study, the predictive capabilities of multiple linear regressions （MLR） and artificial neural networks （ANNs） are evaluated to estimate fruit firmness in six months, including each of nutrients concentrations （nitrogen （N）, potassium （K）, calcium （Ca） and magnesium （Mg）） alone （P1）, com- bination of nutrients concentrations （P2）, nutrient concentration ratios alone （P3）, and combination of nutrient concentrations and nutrient concentration ratios （P4）. The results showed that MLR model estimated fruit firmness more accuracy than ANN model in three datasets （P1, P2 and P4）. However, the application of P3 （N/Ca ratio） as the input dataset in ANN model improved the prediction of fruit firmness than the MLR model. Correlation coefficient and root mean squared error （RMSE） were 0.850 and 0.539 between the measured and the estimated data by the ANN model, respectively. Generally, the ANN model showed greater potential in determining the relationship between 6-mon-fruit firmness and nutrients concentration.
文摘This paper presents an analysis to forecast the loads of an isolated area where the history of load is not available or the history may not represent the realistic demand of electricity. The analysis is done through linear regression and based on the identification of factors on which electrical load growth depends. To determine the identification factors, areas are selected whose histories of load growth rate known and the load growth deciding factors are similar to those of the isolated area. The proposed analysis is applied to an isolated area of Bangladesh, called Swandip where a past history of electrical load demand is not available and also there is no possibility of connecting the area with the main land grid system.
基金This article was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(10571001)the Innovation Group Foundation of Anhui University
文摘This article studies parametric component and nonparametric component estimators in a semiparametric regression model with linear time series errors; their r-th mean consistency and complete consistency are obtained under suitable conditions. Finally, the author shows that the usual weight functions based on nearest neighbor methods satisfy the designed assumptions imposed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71071077)the Ministry of Education Key Project of National Educational Science Planning(DFA090215)+1 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(20100481137)Funding of Jiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education(CXZZ11-0226)
文摘The construction method of background value is improved in the original multi-variable grey model （MGM（1,m）） from its source of construction errors. The MGM（1,m） with optimized background value is used to eliminate the random fluctuations or errors of the observational data of all variables, and the combined prediction model together with the multiple linear regression is established in order to improve the simulation and prediction accuracy of the combined model. Finally, a combined model of the MGM（1,2） with optimized background value and the binary linear regression is constructed by an example. The results show that the model has good effects for simulation and prediction.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.11174235the Science and Technology Development Project of Shaanxi Province of China under contract No.2010KJXX-02+2 种基金the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University of China under contract No. NCET-08-0455the Science and Technology Innovation Foundation of Northwestern Polytechnical University of Chinathe Doctorate Foundation of Northwestern Polytechnical University of China under contract No.CX201226.
文摘Multiple linear regression （MLR） method was applied to quantify the effects of the net heat flux （NHF）, the net freshwater flux （NFF） and the wind stress on the mixed layer depth （MLD） of the South China Sea （SCS） based on the simple ocean data assimilation （SODA） dataset. The spatio-temporal distributions of the MLD, the buoyancy flux （combining the NHF and the NFF） and the wind stress of the SCS were presented. Then using an oceanic vertical mixing model, the MLD after a certain time under the same initial conditions but various pairs of boundary conditions （the three factors） was simulated. Applying the MLR method to the results, regression equations which modeling the relationship between the simulated MLD and the three factors were calculated. The equations indicate that when the NHF was negative, it was the primary driver of the mixed layer deepening; and when the NHF was positive, the wind stress played a more important role than that of the NHF while the NFF had the least effect. When the NHF was positive, the relative quantitative effects of the wind stress, the NHF, and the NFF were about i0, 6 and 2. The above conclusions were applied to explaining the spatio-temporal distributions of the MLD in the SCS and thus proved to be valid.
基金supported by the Research Support Funds Grant (RSFG) program of Indiana University-Purdue University at Indianapolis
文摘Partial least squares （PLS） regression was applied to the Lunar Soft Characterization Consortium （LSCC） dataset for spectral estimation of TiO2. The LSCC dataset was split into a number of subsets including the low-Ti, high-Ti, total mare soils, total highland, Apollo 16, and Apollo 14 soils to investigate the effects of interfering minerals and nonlinearity on the PLS performance. The PLS weight loading vectors were analyzed through stepwise multiple regression analysis （SMRA） to identify mineral species driving and interfering the PLS performance. PLS exhibits high performance for estimating TiO2 for the LSCC low-Ti and high-Ti mare samples and both groups analyzed together. The results suggest that while the dominant TiO2-bearing minerals are few, additional PLS factors are required to compensate the effects on the important PLS factors of minerals that are not highly corrected to TiO2, to accommodate nonlinear relationships between reflectance and TiO2, and to correct inconsistent mineral-TiO2 correlations between the high-Ti and iow-Ti mare samples. Analysis of the LSCC highland soil samples indicates that the Apollo 16 soils are responsible for the large errors of TiO2 estimates when the soils are modeled with other subgroups. For the LSCC Apollo 16 samples, the dominant spectral effects of plagioclase over other dark minerals are primarily responsible for large errors of estimated TiO2. For the Apollo 14 soils, more accurate estimation for TiO2 is attributed to the posi- tive correlation between a major TiOe-bearing component and TiO2, explaining why the Apollo 14 soils follow the regression trend when analyzed with other soils groups.
