From the viewpoint of dynamics, it is convenient to regard the field to be predicted as a small disturbance superposed on the historical analogous field, and thus the statistical technique can be used in combining wit...From the viewpoint of dynamics, it is convenient to regard the field to be predicted as a small disturbance superposed on the historical analogous field, and thus the statistical technique can be used in combining with the dynamics. Along this line, a coupled atmosphere-earth surface analogy-dynamical model is formulated and applied to making eight seasonal predictions. All of the predictions were initiated from January and have been made from February to August of 1981 to 1988. The experiments of eight-year predictions show certain skill in seasonal prediction, and the skill scores of prediction are greater than those of single statistical analogy forecast.展开更多
The analysis of the relationship between sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variation on the temporal scale of month, season and year is made in this paper. The negative correlat...The analysis of the relationship between sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variation on the temporal scale of month, season and year is made in this paper. The negative correlation between sea ice in Arctic and the SOI. and the positive correlation between sea ice in Antarctic and the SOI are found. The variation of sea ice in Antarctic Pacific seems to play an important role in the influence to atmosphere. Their nonlinear relationships present more strongly than the linear relationship between them. The relationship between sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic and the SOI in the early stage is investigated. Their variation shows periodic phenomena. The maximum correlation is used to build the model for forecasting the variation of the SOI on the condition of the sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic. The explained variance of the simulated series is greater than 0.90. There exists a 17-month period in the relationship between sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic and SOI. The existing of the common factor with larger scale is discussed in this paper.展开更多
基金Project supported by the program of droughts and floods forecast of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River, the National Natural Science Foundation of China and National Post-doctor Science Foundation of China
文摘From the viewpoint of dynamics, it is convenient to regard the field to be predicted as a small disturbance superposed on the historical analogous field, and thus the statistical technique can be used in combining with the dynamics. Along this line, a coupled atmosphere-earth surface analogy-dynamical model is formulated and applied to making eight seasonal predictions. All of the predictions were initiated from January and have been made from February to August of 1981 to 1988. The experiments of eight-year predictions show certain skill in seasonal prediction, and the skill scores of prediction are greater than those of single statistical analogy forecast.
基金This study is supported by the "National Key Program for Developing Basic Science G1998040901-1".
文摘The analysis of the relationship between sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variation on the temporal scale of month, season and year is made in this paper. The negative correlation between sea ice in Arctic and the SOI. and the positive correlation between sea ice in Antarctic and the SOI are found. The variation of sea ice in Antarctic Pacific seems to play an important role in the influence to atmosphere. Their nonlinear relationships present more strongly than the linear relationship between them. The relationship between sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic and the SOI in the early stage is investigated. Their variation shows periodic phenomena. The maximum correlation is used to build the model for forecasting the variation of the SOI on the condition of the sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic. The explained variance of the simulated series is greater than 0.90. There exists a 17-month period in the relationship between sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic and SOI. The existing of the common factor with larger scale is discussed in this paper.
