Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemi...Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemics, and land degradation. However, few studies have analyzed the complexity of drought characteristics, both at multiple time scales and with variations in evapotranspiration. In this study, drought occurrences were quantified using a new drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index （SPEI）, based on observed data of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in Henan province, central China. Based on the SPEI values of each weather station in the study the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts were computed, and the monthly, seasonal, and annual drought frequency and intensity over a 53-year period were analyzed. The spatial and temporal evolution, intensity, and the primary causes of drought occurrence in Henan were revealed. The results showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spa- tial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence. As the time scale decreased, the amplitude of the SPEI increased and droughts became more frequent. Since 1961, drought has oc- curred at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, and the occurrence of drought has in- creased. However, regional distribution has been uneven. The highest drought frequency, 35%, was observed in the Zhoukou region, while the lowest value, -26%, was measured in central and western Henan. The most severe droughts occurred in the spring and summer, followed by autumn. Annually, wide-ranging droughts occurred in 1966-1968, 1998-2000, and 2011-2013. The drought intensity showed higher values in north and west Henan, and lower values in its east and south. The maximum drought intensity value was recorded in Anyang, and the minimum occurred in Zhumadian, at 22.18% and 16.60%, respectively. The factors with the greatest influence on drought occurrence are increasing temperatures, the Eurasian atmospheric circulation patterns, and the El Nino effect.展开更多
Drought is an inevitable condition with negative impacts in the agricultural and climatic sectors,especially in developing countries.This study attempts to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought a...Drought is an inevitable condition with negative impacts in the agricultural and climatic sectors,especially in developing countries.This study attempts to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its trends in the Koshi River Basin(KRB)in Nepal,using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)over the period from 1987 to 2017.The Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the trends of the SPEI values.The study illustrated the increasing annual and seasonal drought trends in the KRB over the study period.Spatially,the hill region of the KRB showed substantial increasing drought trends at the annual and seasonal scales,especially in summer and winter.The mountain region also showed a significant increasing drought trend in winter.The drought characteristic analysis indicated that the maximum duration,intensity,and severity of drought events were observed in the KRB after 2000.The Terai region presented the highest drought frequency and intensity,while the hill region presented the longest maximum drought duration.Moreover,the spatial extent of drought showed a significant increasing trend in the hill region at the monthly(drought station proportion of 7.6%/10 a in August),seasonal(drought station proportion of 7.2%/10 a in summer),and annual(drought station proportion of 6.7%/10 a)scales.The findings of this study can assist local governments,planners,and project implementers in understanding drought and developing appropriate mitigation strategies to cope with its impacts.展开更多
The Yili River Basin in Northwest China is a crucial ecological security barrier,yet it faces frequent droughts amid global climate change,posing significant threats to food security and ecological stability.However,t...The Yili River Basin in Northwest China is a crucial ecological security barrier,yet it faces frequent droughts amid global climate change,posing significant threats to food security and ecological stability.However,the spatiotemporal variations and driving mechanisms of drought in the basin remain unclear.Based on the monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),this study employed the Run-Length theory to identify drought events in the basin during 1980-2020,applied statistical and time-series analyses to investigate the spatiotemporal variations,trends,periodicity,and persistence of drought,and explored the underlying drivers associated with meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.The results showed that droughts in the Yili River Basin are more severe in spring and summer.Droughts in the central and southwestern regions exhibit greater severity,with shorter durations and stronger intensity.Drought conditions have generally worsened(Sen’s slope=−0.146/10 yr),with notable intensification since 2005,especially in the northwestern region.Spring droughts(Sen’s slope=−0.213/10 yr)and summer droughts(Sen’s slope=−0.169/10 yr)have intensified at most stations,while autumn and winter droughts have eased.In the future,droughts are expected to alleviate overall,but summer droughts may continue to intensify.The Yili River Basin exhibits two primary drought periods of 9 yr and 21 yr,with primary periods in autumn(20 yr)and winter(20 yr)being longer than those in spring(10 yr)and summer(17 yr).Finally,droughts are impacted by both meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.Rising temperatures and uneven precipitation have intensified droughts.The SPEI exhibits a co-phase relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation and an antiphase relationship with the East Central Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature.Therefore,close monitoring and mitigation are necessary for spring and summer droughts,with a focus on the central and southwestern areas in autumn and winter.展开更多
The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and pre...The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.展开更多
With ongoing global climate change,drought has become the primary threat constraining food security in China.Traditional assessment frameworks based on administrative boundaries or macro-climatic zoning overlook varia...With ongoing global climate change,drought has become the primary threat constraining food security in China.Traditional assessment frameworks based on administrative boundaries or macro-climatic zoning overlook variation in vulnerability affected by key agronomic practices,such as crop phenology and cropping systems,thereby limiting their accuracy.To address this research gap,this study developed and validated a novel drought risk assessment framework based on agricultural cropping zones(single-,double-,and triple-cropping zones).The framework coupled a Geographical and Temporal Neural Network Weighted Regression(GTNNWR)model for forecasting future crop vegetation dynamics with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)to assess drought risk under historical(2001-2020)and projected future(2021-2100)scenarios.The GTNNWR model achieved R^(2) values ranging from 0.72 to 0.82 and RMSE values between 0.11 and 0.14 for NDVI prediction,significantly outperforming conventional models.Historical drought risk assessment revealed that drought events were most frequent during summer and concentrated in single-cropping and double-cropping zones.Future projections indicate a substantial intensification of drought risk.Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)126 scenario,drought risk is projected to increase in the triple-cropping zones of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain.Under the SSP245 scenario,the frequency of spring and winter droughts is anticipated to rise markedly.Under the SSP585 scenario,drought intensity is projected to intensify in central–eastern single-cropping zones and southwestern double-cropping zones.This assessment framework based on agricultural cropping zones can precisely identify drought risks and facilitate adaptation in agricultural management,such as optimizing irrigation systems and adjusting crop structures.展开更多
Central Europe has faced major disasters causing fluctuations in salvage logging.These events,driven by natural or human factors,have damaged forest.Climate change is a key factor that cyclically affects these pattern...Central Europe has faced major disasters causing fluctuations in salvage logging.These events,driven by natural or human factors,have damaged forest.Climate change is a key factor that cyclically affects these patterns.These forest disasters cause billions in financial losses due to lower wood prices and quality,but their regular cycles are poorly understood.The objective of this study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of salvage logging in Austria,Czechia,and Slovakia.Analyses indicate an upward trend in bark beetle-induced logging over the past five decades,with a notable surge in salvage logging in recent years.Cyclical fluctuations linked to solar activity represented by total solar irradiance(TSI)have been observed across the data.Higher TSI reduces beetle-induced logging to 3%-5%,while lower TSI increases it to 17%-24% near the solar minimum.An increase to higher seasonal temperature and a decrease to low precipitation one year before leads to a peak in beetle-induced logging,caused by drought.Seasonal precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)have less impact,but higher precipitation is seen one year after the peak in bark-beetle logging.Droughts regularly occur one year before calamity peaks,confirmed by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI).Harvests caused by wind and snow events have shorter cycles compared to the longer and more regular cycles of bark beetle-induced harvest.Common wavelet power spectrum analysis revealed a consistent 9-to 12-year cycle across all data sets.Solar cycle significantly impacts forest management through the NAO,precipitation,and temperature.The study suggests the potential for utilizing cyclical relationships in calamity prediction and more effective forest management in Central Europe.展开更多
Owing to the complexity of droughts,detailed assessments of drought events have become a key issue in water resource management and planning.In this study,three-dimensional copula models at Standard Precipitation Evap...Owing to the complexity of droughts,detailed assessments of drought events have become a key issue in water resource management and planning.In this study,three-dimensional copula models at Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)-1,SPEI-3,SPEI-6,and SPEI-12 were used to assess drought risks in the Haihe River Basin(HRB)of China from 1961–2020.Drought duration,severity,and peak,as indicated by SPEI,were extracted based on run theory and fitted with suitable marginal distributions.The difference between the joint return period(Tor)and the co-occurrence return period(Tand)could explain the intrinsic correlation between drought characteristics.The smaller the difference,the stronger the correlation.The results showed that droughts in the north-western region of the HRB were characterized by high peak,intense severity,and long duration.In contrast,the eastern region exhibited a higher frequency of drought occurrence.Furthermore,the decreasing trend in precipitation dominated droughts,and topography of the northwest region creates the features of low annual precipitation with more days of precipitation.The drought events in the HRB were influenced by the phase shift between El Niño and La Niña.There was a strong negative phase coupling between SPEI-12 and Niño3.4(R^(2)≥0.77).The transition from La Niña to El Niño was responsible for severe droughts in the HRB.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation could predict droughts with lag times of 0.15–4.35 mon in mountainous areas.展开更多
In the last decade, a series of severe and extensive droughts have swept across Southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses, deaths, and disruption to society. Consequently, this study is motivated by the...In the last decade, a series of severe and extensive droughts have swept across Southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses, deaths, and disruption to society. Consequently, this study is motivated by the paramount importance of as- sessing future changes in drought in Southwest China. Precipitation is likely to decrease over most parts of Southwest China around the beginning of the century, followed by widespread precipitation increases; the increase in potential evapotran- spiration （PET）, due to the joint effects of increased temperature and surface net radiation and decreased relative humidity, will overwhelm the whole region throughout the entire 21st century. In comparative terms, the enhancement of PET will outweigh that of precipitation, particularly under Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） 8.5, resulting in intensified drought. Generally, the drying tendency will be in the southeast portion, whereas the mountainous region in the northwest will become increasingly wetter owing to abundant precipitation increases. Droughts classified as moderate/severe according to historical standards will become the norm in the 2080s under RCP4.5/RCP8.5. Future drought changes will manifest different characteristics depending on the time scale： the magnitude of change at a time scale of 48 months is nearly twice as great as that at 3 months. Furthermore, we will see that not only will incidences of severe and extreme drought increase dramatically in the future, but extremely wet events will also become more probable.展开更多
The calculation method of potential evapotranspiration（PET） was improved by adopting a more reliable PET estimate based on the Penman-Monteith equation into the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index（S...The calculation method of potential evapotranspiration（PET） was improved by adopting a more reliable PET estimate based on the Penman-Monteith equation into the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index（SPEI） in this study（SPEI PM）. This improvement increased the applicability of SPEI in North China Plain（NCP）. The historic meteorological data during 1962–2011 were used to calculate SPEI PM. The detrended yields of maize from Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Beijing, and Tianjin provinces/cities of NCP were obtained by linear sliding average method. Then regression analysis was made to study the relationships between detrended yields and SPEI values. Different time scales were applied, and thus SPEI PM was mentioned as SPEI PMk-j（k=time scale, 1, 2, 3, 4,…, 24 mon; j=month, 1, 2, 3,..., 12）, among which SPEI PM3-8 reflected the water condition from June to August, a period of heavy precipitation and vigorous growth of maize in NCP. SPEI PM3-8 was highly correlated with detrended yield in this region, which can effectively evaluate the effect of drought on maize yield. Additionally, this relationship becomes more significant in recent 20 yr. The regression model based on the SPEI series explained 64.8% of the variability of the annual detrended yield in Beijing, 45.2% in Henan, 58.6% in Shandong, and 54.6% in Hebei. Moreover, when SPEI PM3-8 is in the range of –0.6 to 1.1, –0.9 to 0.8 and –0.8 to 2.3, the detrended yield increases in Shandong, Henan and Beijing. The yield increasing range was during normal water condition in Shandong and Henan, where precipitation was abundant. It indicated that the field management matched well with local water condition and thus allowed stable and high yield. Maize yield increase in these two provinces in the future can be realized by further improving water use efficiency and enhancing the stress resistance as well as yield stability. In Hebei and Beijing, the precipitation is less and thus the normal water condition cannot meet the high yield target. Increasing of water input and improving water use efficiency are both strategies for future yield increase. As global climate change became stronger and yield demands increased, the relationship between drought and maize yield became much closer in NCP too. The research of drought monitoring method and strategies for yield increase should be enhanced in the future, so as to provide strong supports for food security and agricultural sustainable development in China.展开更多
Northeast China has experienced frequent droughts over the past fifteen years.However,the effects of droughts on net primary productivity(NPP)in Northeast China remain unclear.In this paper,the droughts that occurred ...Northeast China has experienced frequent droughts over the past fifteen years.However,the effects of droughts on net primary productivity(NPP)in Northeast China remain unclear.In this paper,the droughts that occurred in Northeast China between 1999 and 2013 were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI).The NPP standardized anomaly index(NPP-SAI)was used to evaluate NPP anomalies.The years of 1999,2000,2001,and 2007 were further investigated in order to explore the influence of droughts on NPP at different time scales(3,6,and 12 months).Based on the NPP-SAI of normal areas,we found droughts overall decreased NPP by 112.06 Tg C between 1999 and 2013.Lower temperatures at the beginning of the growing season could cause declines in NPP by shortening the length of the growing season.Mild drought or short-term drought with higher temperatures might increase NPP,and weak intensity droughts intensified the lag effects of droughts on NPP.展开更多
Drought is the most widespread and insidious natural hazard, presenting serious challenges to ecosystems and human society. The daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) has been developed to ide...Drought is the most widespread and insidious natural hazard, presenting serious challenges to ecosystems and human society. The daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) has been developed to identify the regional spatiotemporal characteristics of drought conditions from 1960 to 2016, revealing the variability in drought characteristics across Southwest China. Daily data from142 meteorological stations across the region were used to calculate the daily SPEI at the annual and seasonal time scale. The Mann-Kendall test and the trend statistics were then applied to quantify the significance of drought trends, with the following results. 1) The regionally averaged intensity and duration of all-drought and severe drought showed increasing trends, while the intensity and duration of extreme drought exhibited decreasing trends. 2) Mixed(increasing/decreasing) trends were detected, in terms of intensity and duration, in the three types of drought events. In general, no evidence of significant trends(P < 0.05) was detected in the drought intensity and duration over the last 55 years at the annual timescale. Seasonally, spring was characterized by a severe drought trend for all drought and severe drought conditions, while extreme drought events in spring and summer were very severe. All drought intensities and durations showed an increasing trend across most regions, except in the northwestern parts of Sichuan Province. However, the areal extent of regions suffering increasing trends in severe and extreme drought became relatively smaller. 3) We identified the following drought hotspots: Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from the 1960 s to the 1990 s, respectively. Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Guizhou Province in the 1970 s and 1980 s, and Yunnan Province in the 2000 s. Finally, this paper can benefit operational drought characterization with a day-to-day drought monitoring index, enabling a more risk-based drought management strategy in the context of global warming.展开更多
Determining the mechanisms controlling the changes of wet and dry conditions will improve our understanding of climate change over the past hundred years,which is of great significance to the study of climate and envi...Determining the mechanisms controlling the changes of wet and dry conditions will improve our understanding of climate change over the past hundred years,which is of great significance to the study of climate and environmental changes in the arid regions of Central Asia.Forest trees are ecologically significant in the local environment,and therefore the tree ring analysis can provide a clear record of regional historical climate.This study analyzed the correlation between the tree ring width chronology of Juniperus turkestanica Komarov and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Northwest Tajikistan,based on 56 tree ring samples collected from Shahristan in the Pamir region.Climate data including precipitation,temperature and the SPEI were downloaded from the Climate Research Unit(CRU)TS 4.00.The COFECHA program was used for cross-dating,and the ARSTAN program was used to remove the growth trend of the tree itself and the influence of non-climatic factors on the growth of the trees.A significant correlation was found between the radial growth of J.turkestanica trees and the monthly mean SPEI of February–April.The monthly mean SPEI sequence of February–April during the period of 1895–2016 was reconstructed,and the reconstruction equation explained 42.5%of the variance.During the past 122 a(1895–2016),the study area has experienced three wetter periods(precipitation above average):1901–1919,1945–1983 and 1995–2010,and four drier periods(precipitation below average):1895–1900,1920–1944,1984–1994 and 2011–2016.The spatial correlation analysis revealed that the monthly mean SPEI reconstruction sequence of February–April could be used to characterize the large-scale dry-wet variations in Northwest Tajikistan during the period of 1895–2016.This study could provide comparative data for validating the projections of climate models and scientific basis for managing water resources in Tajikistan in the context of climate change.展开更多
Based on the monthly precipitation and air temperature from 1960 to 1989 in the Luanhe River Basin, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index （SPEI） and standardized precipitation index （SPI） at thre...Based on the monthly precipitation and air temperature from 1960 to 1989 in the Luanhe River Basin, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index （SPEI） and standardized precipitation index （SPI） at three- and six-month time scales and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index （sc-PDSI） were calculated to evaluate droughts in the study area. Temporal variations of the drought severity from 1960 to 1989 were analyzed and compared based on the results of different drought indices, and some typical drought events were identified. Spatial distributions of the drought severity according to the indices were also plotted and investigated. The results reveal the following： the performances of different drought indices are closely associated with the drought duration and the dominant factors of droughts; the SPEI is more accurate than the SPI when both evaporation and precipitation play important roles in drought events; the drought severity shown by the sc-PDSI is generally milder than the actual drought severity from 1960 to 1989; and the evolution of the droughts is usually delayed according to the scPDSI. This study provides valuable references for building drought early warning and mitigation systems in the Luanhe River Basin.展开更多
Drought occurs in almost all climate zones and is characterized by prolonged water deficiency due to unbalanced demand and supply of water,persistent insufficient precipitation,lack of moisture,and high evapotranspira...Drought occurs in almost all climate zones and is characterized by prolonged water deficiency due to unbalanced demand and supply of water,persistent insufficient precipitation,lack of moisture,and high evapotranspiration.Drought caused by insufficient precipitation is a temporary and recurring meteorological event.Precipitation in semi-arid regions is different from that in other regions,ranging from 50 to 750 mm.In general,the semi-arid regions in the west and north of Iran received more precipitation than those in the east and south.The Terrestrial Climate(TerraClimate)data,including monthly precipitation,minimum temperature,maximum temperature,potential evapotranspiration,and the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI)developed by the University of Idaho,were used in this study.The PDSI data was directly obtained from the Google Earth Engine platform.The Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)on two different scales were calculated in time series and also both SPI and SPEI were shown in spatial distribution maps.The result showed that normal conditions were a common occurrence in the semi-arid regions of Iran over the majority of years from 2000 to 2020,according to a spatiotemporal study of the SPI at 3-month and 12-month time scales as well as the SPEI at 3-month and 12-month time scales.Moreover,the PDSI detected extreme dry years during 2000-2003 and in 2007,2014,and 2018.In many semi-arid regions of Iran,the SPI at 3-month time scale is higher than the SPEI at 3-month time scale in 2000,2008,2014,2015,and 2018.In general,this study concluded that the semi-arid regions underwent normal weather conditions from 2000 to 2020.In a way,moderate,severe,and extreme dry occurred with a lesser percentage,gradually decreasing.According to the PDSI,during 2000-2003 and 2007-2014,extreme dry struck practically all hot semi-arid regions of Iran.Several parts of the cold semi-arid regions,on the other hand,only experienced moderate to severe dry from 2000 to 2003,except for the eastern areas and wetter regions.The significance of this study is the determination of the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological drought in semi-arid regions of Iran using strongly validated data from TerraClimate.展开更多
Development of drought monitoring techniques is important for understanding and mitigating droughts and for rational agricultural management. This study used data from multiple sources, including MOD13 A3, TRMM 3 B43,...Development of drought monitoring techniques is important for understanding and mitigating droughts and for rational agricultural management. This study used data from multiple sources, including MOD13 A3, TRMM 3 B43, and SRTMDEM, for Yunnan Province, China from 2009 to 2018 to calculate the tropical rainfall condition index(TRCI), vegetation condition index(VCI), temperature condition index(TCI), and elevation factors. Principal component analysis(PCA) and analytic hierarchy process(AHP) were used to construct comprehensive drought monitoring models for Yunnan Province. The reliability of the models was verified, following which the drought situation in Yunnan Province for the past ten years was analysed. The results showed that:(1) The comprehensive drought index(CDI) had a high correlation with the standardized precipitation index, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, temperature vegetation dryness index, and CLDAS(China Meteorological Administration land data assimilation system), indicating that the CDI was a strong indicator of drought through meteorological, remote sensing and soil moisture monitoring.(2) The droughts from 2009 to 2018 showed generally consistent spatiotemporal changes. Droughts occurred in most parts of the province, with an average drought frequency of 29% and four droughtprone centres.(3) Monthly drought coverage during 2009 to 2014 exceeded that over 2015 to 2018. January had the largest average drought coverage over the study period(61.92%). Droughts at most stations during the remaining months except for October exhibited a weakening trend(slope > 0). The CDI provides a novel approach for drought monitoring in areas with complex terrain such as Yunnan Province.展开更多
In the context of global warming,escalating water cycles have led to a surge in drought frequency and severity.Yet,multidecadal fluctuations in drought and their multifaceted influencing factors remain inadequately un...In the context of global warming,escalating water cycles have led to a surge in drought frequency and severity.Yet,multidecadal fluctuations in drought and their multifaceted influencing factors remain inadequately understood.This study examined the multidecadal changes in drought characteristics(frequency,duration,and severity)and their geographical focal points within China's north-south transitional zone,the Qinling-Daba Mountains(QDM),from 1960 to 2017 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI).In addition,a suite of eight scenarios,correlation analysis,and wavelet coherence were used to identify the meteorological and circulation factors that influenced drought characteristics.The results indicate the following:(1)From 1960 to 2017,the QDM experienced significant interdecadal variations in drought frequency,duration,and severity,the climate was relatively humid before the 1990s,but drought intensified thereafter.Specifically,the 1990s marked the period of the longest drought duration and greatest severity,while the years spanning 2010 to 2017 experienced the highest frequency of drought events.(2)Spatially,the Qinling Mountains,particularly the western Qinling Mountain,exhibited higher drought frequency,duration,and severity than the Daba Mountains.This disparity can be attributed to higher rates of temperature increase and precipitation decrease in the western Qinling Mountain.(3)Interdecadal variations in droughts in the QDM were directly influenced by the synergistic effects of interdecadal fluctuations in air temperature and precipitation.Circulation factors modulate temperature and precipitation through phase transitions,thereby affecting drought dynamics in the QDM.The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation emerges as the primary circulation factors influencing temperature changes,with a mid-1990s shift to a positive phase favoring warming.The East Asian Summer Monsoon and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation are the main circulation factors affecting precipitation changes,with positive phase transitions associated with reduced precipitation,and vice versa for increased precipitation.展开更多
Mastering the pattern of food loss caused by droughts and floods aids in planning the layout of agricultural production,determining the scale of drought and flood control projects,and reducing food loss.The Standardiz...Mastering the pattern of food loss caused by droughts and floods aids in planning the layout of agricultural production,determining the scale of drought and flood control projects,and reducing food loss.The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index is calculated using monthly meteorological data from 1984 to 2020 in Shandong Province of China and is used to identify the province’s drought and flood characteristics.Then,food losses due to droughts and floods are estimated separately from disaster loss data.Finally,the relationship between drought/flood-related factors and food losses is quantified using methods such as the Pearson correlation coefficient and linear regression.The results show that:1)there is a trend of aridity in Shandong Province,and the drought characteristic variables are increasing yearly while flood duration and severity are decreasing.2)The food losses caused by droughts in Shandong Province are more than those caused by floods,and the area where droughts and floods occur frequently is located in Linyi City.3)The impact of precipitation on food loss due to drought/flood is significant,followed by potential evapotranspiration and temperature.4)The relationship between drought and flood conditions and food losses can be precisely quantified.The accumulated drought duration of one month led to 1.939×10^(4)t of grain loss,and an increase in cumulative flood duration of one month resulted in1.134×10^(4)t of grain loss.If the cumulative drought severity and average drought peak increased by one unit,food loss due to drought will increase by 1.562×10^(4)t and 1.511×10^(6)t,respectively.If the cumulative flood severity and average flood peak increase by one unit,food loss will increase by 8.470×103t and 1.034×10^(6)t,respectively.展开更多
It is accepted that climate change has a great impact on water cycle and regional water balance,and thus it would change the formation and evolution conditions of drought in some degree. By using data at 42 meteorolog...It is accepted that climate change has a great impact on water cycle and regional water balance,and thus it would change the formation and evolution conditions of drought in some degree. By using data at 42 meteorological stations of the Pearl River Basin,the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index（ SPEI） at different time scales was calculated. Based on the SPEIs of 1- 12 months,a newly proposed index for drought--Joint Drought Index（ JDI） was established under the multi-scale perspective through the copula function. Since short-term SPEIs are essential for the identification of emerging droughts and long-term SPEIs are useful for prolonged droughts,the JDI,which integrates all the usefull informations of drought and can thus form an overall judgement,is superior than the single SPEI in drought monitoring. By the forcast evaluation system and comparison to the actual drought,the accuracy and effectiveness of JDI in drought monitoring were verified. In general,JDI can be used as a new ideal index for future drought monitoring and assessment. Additionly,we analyzed the spatio-temperal characteristics of drought across the Pearl River Basin using the JDI. The results indicate that mild drought was the most frequent drought occurred in the Pearl River Basin over the past half century,and moderate drought followed. Severe drought and extreme drought would appear occasionally while exceptional drought could hardly be found. A dry-wet-dry interdecadal variation pattern had been found from the 1960 s to the 2000 s. Since the 21 stcentury,an obvious trend toward drought can be observed in the whole basin,especially in the Xijiang subbasin,which,consequently,poses an increasing challenge for the water resource planning and management.展开更多
Against the backdrop of global warming,climate extremes and drought events have become more severe,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.This study forecasted the characteristics of climate extremes in the Xilin Rive...Against the backdrop of global warming,climate extremes and drought events have become more severe,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.This study forecasted the characteristics of climate extremes in the Xilin River Basin(a semi-arid inland river basin)of China for the period of 2021–2100 by employing a multi-model ensemble approach based on three climate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Furthermore,a linear regression,a wavelet analysis,and the correlation analysis were conducted to explore the response of climate extremes to the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and Streamflow Drought Index(SDI),as well as their respective trends during the historical period from 1970 to 2020 and during the future period from 2021 to 2070.The results indicated that extreme high temperatures and extreme precipitation will further intensify under the higher forcing scenarios(SSP5-8.5>SSP2-4.5>SSP1-2.6)in the future.The SPEI trends under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were estimated as–0.003/a,–0.004/a,and–0.008/a,respectively,indicating a drier future climate.During the historical period(1970–2020),the SPEI and SDI trends were–0.003/a and–0.016/a,respectively,with significant cycles of 15 and 22 a,and abrupt changes occurring in 1995 and 1996,respectively.The next abrupt change in the SPEI was projected to occur in the 2040s.The SPEI had a significant positive correlation with both summer days(SU)and heavy precipitation days(R10mm),while the SDI was only significantly positively correlated with R10mm.Additionally,the SPEI and SDI exhibited a strong and consistent positive correlation at a cycle of 4–6 a,indicating a robust interdependence between the two indices.These findings have important implications for policy makers,enabling them to improve water resource management of inland river basins in arid and semi-arid areas under future climate uncertainty.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41140019 No.41501263 The Key Program of Higher Education of Henan Province of China, No.15A180054
文摘Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemics, and land degradation. However, few studies have analyzed the complexity of drought characteristics, both at multiple time scales and with variations in evapotranspiration. In this study, drought occurrences were quantified using a new drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index （SPEI）, based on observed data of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in Henan province, central China. Based on the SPEI values of each weather station in the study the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts were computed, and the monthly, seasonal, and annual drought frequency and intensity over a 53-year period were analyzed. The spatial and temporal evolution, intensity, and the primary causes of drought occurrence in Henan were revealed. The results showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spa- tial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence. As the time scale decreased, the amplitude of the SPEI increased and droughts became more frequent. Since 1961, drought has oc- curred at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, and the occurrence of drought has in- creased. However, regional distribution has been uneven. The highest drought frequency, 35%, was observed in the Zhoukou region, while the lowest value, -26%, was measured in central and western Henan. The most severe droughts occurred in the spring and summer, followed by autumn. Annually, wide-ranging droughts occurred in 1966-1968, 1998-2000, and 2011-2013. The drought intensity showed higher values in north and west Henan, and lower values in its east and south. The maximum drought intensity value was recorded in Anyang, and the minimum occurred in Zhumadian, at 22.18% and 16.60%, respectively. The factors with the greatest influence on drought occurrence are increasing temperatures, the Eurasian atmospheric circulation patterns, and the El Nino effect.
基金funded by the CAS(Chinese Academy of Sciences)Overseas Institutions Platform Project(Grant No.131C11KYSB20200033)the NSFC-ICIMOD Joint Research Project(Grant No.41661144038)。
文摘Drought is an inevitable condition with negative impacts in the agricultural and climatic sectors,especially in developing countries.This study attempts to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought and its trends in the Koshi River Basin(KRB)in Nepal,using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)over the period from 1987 to 2017.The Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the trends of the SPEI values.The study illustrated the increasing annual and seasonal drought trends in the KRB over the study period.Spatially,the hill region of the KRB showed substantial increasing drought trends at the annual and seasonal scales,especially in summer and winter.The mountain region also showed a significant increasing drought trend in winter.The drought characteristic analysis indicated that the maximum duration,intensity,and severity of drought events were observed in the KRB after 2000.The Terai region presented the highest drought frequency and intensity,while the hill region presented the longest maximum drought duration.Moreover,the spatial extent of drought showed a significant increasing trend in the hill region at the monthly(drought station proportion of 7.6%/10 a in August),seasonal(drought station proportion of 7.2%/10 a in summer),and annual(drought station proportion of 6.7%/10 a)scales.The findings of this study can assist local governments,planners,and project implementers in understanding drought and developing appropriate mitigation strategies to cope with its impacts.
基金Under the auspices of the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program(No.2022xjkk0600)。
文摘The Yili River Basin in Northwest China is a crucial ecological security barrier,yet it faces frequent droughts amid global climate change,posing significant threats to food security and ecological stability.However,the spatiotemporal variations and driving mechanisms of drought in the basin remain unclear.Based on the monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI),this study employed the Run-Length theory to identify drought events in the basin during 1980-2020,applied statistical and time-series analyses to investigate the spatiotemporal variations,trends,periodicity,and persistence of drought,and explored the underlying drivers associated with meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.The results showed that droughts in the Yili River Basin are more severe in spring and summer.Droughts in the central and southwestern regions exhibit greater severity,with shorter durations and stronger intensity.Drought conditions have generally worsened(Sen’s slope=−0.146/10 yr),with notable intensification since 2005,especially in the northwestern region.Spring droughts(Sen’s slope=−0.213/10 yr)and summer droughts(Sen’s slope=−0.169/10 yr)have intensified at most stations,while autumn and winter droughts have eased.In the future,droughts are expected to alleviate overall,but summer droughts may continue to intensify.The Yili River Basin exhibits two primary drought periods of 9 yr and 21 yr,with primary periods in autumn(20 yr)and winter(20 yr)being longer than those in spring(10 yr)and summer(17 yr).Finally,droughts are impacted by both meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.Rising temperatures and uneven precipitation have intensified droughts.The SPEI exhibits a co-phase relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation and an antiphase relationship with the East Central Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature.Therefore,close monitoring and mitigation are necessary for spring and summer droughts,with a focus on the central and southwestern areas in autumn and winter.
文摘The characteristics of drought in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Xinjiang),China have changed due to changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature and precipitation,however,the effects of temperature and precipitation—the two most important factors influencing drought—have not yet been thoroughly explored in this region.In this study,we first calculated the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 based on the monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature.Then the spatiotemporal characteristics of temperature,precipitation,and drought in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen median trend analysis method and Mann-Kendall test.A series of SPEI-based scenario-setting experiments by combining the observed and detrended climatic factors were utilized to quantify the effects of individual climatic factor(i.e.,temperature and precipitation).The results revealed that both temperature and precipitation had experienced increasing trends at most meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2020,especially the spring temperature and winter precipitation.Due to the influence of temperature,trends of intensifying drought have been observed at spring,summer,autumn,and annual scales.In addition,the drought trends in southern Xinjiang were more notable than those in northern Xinjiang.From 1980 to 2020,temperature trends exacerbated drought trends,but precipitation trends alleviated drought trends in Xinjiang.Most meteorological stations in Xinjiang exhibited temperature-dominated drought trend except in winter;in winter,most stations exhibited precipitation-dominated wetting trend.The findings of this study highlight the importance of the impact of temperature on drought in Xinjiang and deepen the understanding of the factors influencing drought.
文摘With ongoing global climate change,drought has become the primary threat constraining food security in China.Traditional assessment frameworks based on administrative boundaries or macro-climatic zoning overlook variation in vulnerability affected by key agronomic practices,such as crop phenology and cropping systems,thereby limiting their accuracy.To address this research gap,this study developed and validated a novel drought risk assessment framework based on agricultural cropping zones(single-,double-,and triple-cropping zones).The framework coupled a Geographical and Temporal Neural Network Weighted Regression(GTNNWR)model for forecasting future crop vegetation dynamics with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)to assess drought risk under historical(2001-2020)and projected future(2021-2100)scenarios.The GTNNWR model achieved R^(2) values ranging from 0.72 to 0.82 and RMSE values between 0.11 and 0.14 for NDVI prediction,significantly outperforming conventional models.Historical drought risk assessment revealed that drought events were most frequent during summer and concentrated in single-cropping and double-cropping zones.Future projections indicate a substantial intensification of drought risk.Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)126 scenario,drought risk is projected to increase in the triple-cropping zones of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain.Under the SSP245 scenario,the frequency of spring and winter droughts is anticipated to rise markedly.Under the SSP585 scenario,drought intensity is projected to intensify in central–eastern single-cropping zones and southwestern double-cropping zones.This assessment framework based on agricultural cropping zones can precisely identify drought risks and facilitate adaptation in agricultural management,such as optimizing irrigation systems and adjusting crop structures.
基金financial support from the Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic through Project No.QK21010198,named Adaptation of forestry for sustainable use of natural resourcessupported by the project RVO:67985815supported by the Czech University of Life Sciences Prague,Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences(Excellent Output 2025).
文摘Central Europe has faced major disasters causing fluctuations in salvage logging.These events,driven by natural or human factors,have damaged forest.Climate change is a key factor that cyclically affects these patterns.These forest disasters cause billions in financial losses due to lower wood prices and quality,but their regular cycles are poorly understood.The objective of this study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of salvage logging in Austria,Czechia,and Slovakia.Analyses indicate an upward trend in bark beetle-induced logging over the past five decades,with a notable surge in salvage logging in recent years.Cyclical fluctuations linked to solar activity represented by total solar irradiance(TSI)have been observed across the data.Higher TSI reduces beetle-induced logging to 3%-5%,while lower TSI increases it to 17%-24% near the solar minimum.An increase to higher seasonal temperature and a decrease to low precipitation one year before leads to a peak in beetle-induced logging,caused by drought.Seasonal precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)have less impact,but higher precipitation is seen one year after the peak in bark-beetle logging.Droughts regularly occur one year before calamity peaks,confirmed by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI).Harvests caused by wind and snow events have shorter cycles compared to the longer and more regular cycles of bark beetle-induced harvest.Common wavelet power spectrum analysis revealed a consistent 9-to 12-year cycle across all data sets.Solar cycle significantly impacts forest management through the NAO,precipitation,and temperature.The study suggests the potential for utilizing cyclical relationships in calamity prediction and more effective forest management in Central Europe.
基金Under the auspices of the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation(No.ZR2024ME171,ZR2024QD207)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41471160,42377077)。
文摘Owing to the complexity of droughts,detailed assessments of drought events have become a key issue in water resource management and planning.In this study,three-dimensional copula models at Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)-1,SPEI-3,SPEI-6,and SPEI-12 were used to assess drought risks in the Haihe River Basin(HRB)of China from 1961–2020.Drought duration,severity,and peak,as indicated by SPEI,were extracted based on run theory and fitted with suitable marginal distributions.The difference between the joint return period(Tor)and the co-occurrence return period(Tand)could explain the intrinsic correlation between drought characteristics.The smaller the difference,the stronger the correlation.The results showed that droughts in the north-western region of the HRB were characterized by high peak,intense severity,and long duration.In contrast,the eastern region exhibited a higher frequency of drought occurrence.Furthermore,the decreasing trend in precipitation dominated droughts,and topography of the northwest region creates the features of low annual precipitation with more days of precipitation.The drought events in the HRB were influenced by the phase shift between El Niño and La Niña.There was a strong negative phase coupling between SPEI-12 and Niño3.4(R^(2)≥0.77).The transition from La Niña to El Niño was responsible for severe droughts in the HRB.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation could predict droughts with lag times of 0.15–4.35 mon in mountainous areas.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41230527, 41175079, and 41025017)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change
文摘In the last decade, a series of severe and extensive droughts have swept across Southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses, deaths, and disruption to society. Consequently, this study is motivated by the paramount importance of as- sessing future changes in drought in Southwest China. Precipitation is likely to decrease over most parts of Southwest China around the beginning of the century, followed by widespread precipitation increases; the increase in potential evapotran- spiration （PET）, due to the joint effects of increased temperature and surface net radiation and decreased relative humidity, will overwhelm the whole region throughout the entire 21st century. In comparative terms, the enhancement of PET will outweigh that of precipitation, particularly under Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） 8.5, resulting in intensified drought. Generally, the drying tendency will be in the southeast portion, whereas the mountainous region in the northwest will become increasingly wetter owing to abundant precipitation increases. Droughts classified as moderate/severe according to historical standards will become the norm in the 2080s under RCP4.5/RCP8.5. Future drought changes will manifest different characteristics depending on the time scale： the magnitude of change at a time scale of 48 months is nearly twice as great as that at 3 months. Furthermore, we will see that not only will incidences of severe and extreme drought increase dramatically in the future, but extremely wet events will also become more probable.
基金supported by the Chinese National Public Scientific Research (201203031)the Chinese National Corn Industry Technology System (CARS-02-26)the Chinese Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project funded on the surface (2013M 541092)
文摘The calculation method of potential evapotranspiration（PET） was improved by adopting a more reliable PET estimate based on the Penman-Monteith equation into the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index（SPEI） in this study（SPEI PM）. This improvement increased the applicability of SPEI in North China Plain（NCP）. The historic meteorological data during 1962–2011 were used to calculate SPEI PM. The detrended yields of maize from Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Beijing, and Tianjin provinces/cities of NCP were obtained by linear sliding average method. Then regression analysis was made to study the relationships between detrended yields and SPEI values. Different time scales were applied, and thus SPEI PM was mentioned as SPEI PMk-j（k=time scale, 1, 2, 3, 4,…, 24 mon; j=month, 1, 2, 3,..., 12）, among which SPEI PM3-8 reflected the water condition from June to August, a period of heavy precipitation and vigorous growth of maize in NCP. SPEI PM3-8 was highly correlated with detrended yield in this region, which can effectively evaluate the effect of drought on maize yield. Additionally, this relationship becomes more significant in recent 20 yr. The regression model based on the SPEI series explained 64.8% of the variability of the annual detrended yield in Beijing, 45.2% in Henan, 58.6% in Shandong, and 54.6% in Hebei. Moreover, when SPEI PM3-8 is in the range of –0.6 to 1.1, –0.9 to 0.8 and –0.8 to 2.3, the detrended yield increases in Shandong, Henan and Beijing. The yield increasing range was during normal water condition in Shandong and Henan, where precipitation was abundant. It indicated that the field management matched well with local water condition and thus allowed stable and high yield. Maize yield increase in these two provinces in the future can be realized by further improving water use efficiency and enhancing the stress resistance as well as yield stability. In Hebei and Beijing, the precipitation is less and thus the normal water condition cannot meet the high yield target. Increasing of water input and improving water use efficiency are both strategies for future yield increase. As global climate change became stronger and yield demands increased, the relationship between drought and maize yield became much closer in NCP too. The research of drought monitoring method and strategies for yield increase should be enhanced in the future, so as to provide strong supports for food security and agricultural sustainable development in China.
基金Under the auspices of Special Issue of National Remote Sensing Survey and Assessment of Eco-Environment Change Between 2000 and 2010(No.STSN-09-03)
文摘Northeast China has experienced frequent droughts over the past fifteen years.However,the effects of droughts on net primary productivity(NPP)in Northeast China remain unclear.In this paper,the droughts that occurred in Northeast China between 1999 and 2013 were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI).The NPP standardized anomaly index(NPP-SAI)was used to evaluate NPP anomalies.The years of 1999,2000,2001,and 2007 were further investigated in order to explore the influence of droughts on NPP at different time scales(3,6,and 12 months).Based on the NPP-SAI of normal areas,we found droughts overall decreased NPP by 112.06 Tg C between 1999 and 2013.Lower temperatures at the beginning of the growing season could cause declines in NPP by shortening the length of the growing season.Mild drought or short-term drought with higher temperatures might increase NPP,and weak intensity droughts intensified the lag effects of droughts on NPP.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41561024)Philosophy Social Science Foundation of Shanxi Province of China(No.2015265)
文摘Drought is the most widespread and insidious natural hazard, presenting serious challenges to ecosystems and human society. The daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) has been developed to identify the regional spatiotemporal characteristics of drought conditions from 1960 to 2016, revealing the variability in drought characteristics across Southwest China. Daily data from142 meteorological stations across the region were used to calculate the daily SPEI at the annual and seasonal time scale. The Mann-Kendall test and the trend statistics were then applied to quantify the significance of drought trends, with the following results. 1) The regionally averaged intensity and duration of all-drought and severe drought showed increasing trends, while the intensity and duration of extreme drought exhibited decreasing trends. 2) Mixed(increasing/decreasing) trends were detected, in terms of intensity and duration, in the three types of drought events. In general, no evidence of significant trends(P < 0.05) was detected in the drought intensity and duration over the last 55 years at the annual timescale. Seasonally, spring was characterized by a severe drought trend for all drought and severe drought conditions, while extreme drought events in spring and summer were very severe. All drought intensities and durations showed an increasing trend across most regions, except in the northwestern parts of Sichuan Province. However, the areal extent of regions suffering increasing trends in severe and extreme drought became relatively smaller. 3) We identified the following drought hotspots: Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from the 1960 s to the 1990 s, respectively. Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Guizhou Province in the 1970 s and 1980 s, and Yunnan Province in the 2000 s. Finally, this paper can benefit operational drought characterization with a day-to-day drought monitoring index, enabling a more risk-based drought management strategy in the context of global warming.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51979071,51779073,and 51809073)the Jiangsu Provincial Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(Grant No.BK20180021)the National Ten Thousand Talent Program for Young Top-Notch Talents,and the Six Talent Peaks Project of Jiangsu Province.
基金This study was supported by the CAS"Light of West China"Program(2018-XBQNXZ-B-017,2015-XBQN-B-22)the 100 Talents Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Y931201)the High Level Talent Introduction Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Y942171).
文摘Determining the mechanisms controlling the changes of wet and dry conditions will improve our understanding of climate change over the past hundred years,which is of great significance to the study of climate and environmental changes in the arid regions of Central Asia.Forest trees are ecologically significant in the local environment,and therefore the tree ring analysis can provide a clear record of regional historical climate.This study analyzed the correlation between the tree ring width chronology of Juniperus turkestanica Komarov and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)in Northwest Tajikistan,based on 56 tree ring samples collected from Shahristan in the Pamir region.Climate data including precipitation,temperature and the SPEI were downloaded from the Climate Research Unit(CRU)TS 4.00.The COFECHA program was used for cross-dating,and the ARSTAN program was used to remove the growth trend of the tree itself and the influence of non-climatic factors on the growth of the trees.A significant correlation was found between the radial growth of J.turkestanica trees and the monthly mean SPEI of February–April.The monthly mean SPEI sequence of February–April during the period of 1895–2016 was reconstructed,and the reconstruction equation explained 42.5%of the variance.During the past 122 a(1895–2016),the study area has experienced three wetter periods(precipitation above average):1901–1919,1945–1983 and 1995–2010,and four drier periods(precipitation below average):1895–1900,1920–1944,1984–1994 and 2011–2016.The spatial correlation analysis revealed that the monthly mean SPEI reconstruction sequence of February–April could be used to characterize the large-scale dry-wet variations in Northwest Tajikistan during the period of 1895–2016.This study could provide comparative data for validating the projections of climate models and scientific basis for managing water resources in Tajikistan in the context of climate change.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41171220)the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University of the Ministry of Education of China(Grant No.IRT13062)+2 种基金the Programme of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities(the 111 Project,Grant No.B08048)the Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilizationthe National Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety and Hydro-Science
文摘Based on the monthly precipitation and air temperature from 1960 to 1989 in the Luanhe River Basin, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index （SPEI） and standardized precipitation index （SPI） at three- and six-month time scales and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index （sc-PDSI） were calculated to evaluate droughts in the study area. Temporal variations of the drought severity from 1960 to 1989 were analyzed and compared based on the results of different drought indices, and some typical drought events were identified. Spatial distributions of the drought severity according to the indices were also plotted and investigated. The results reveal the following： the performances of different drought indices are closely associated with the drought duration and the dominant factors of droughts; the SPEI is more accurate than the SPI when both evaporation and precipitation play important roles in drought events; the drought severity shown by the sc-PDSI is generally milder than the actual drought severity from 1960 to 1989; and the evolution of the droughts is usually delayed according to the scPDSI. This study provides valuable references for building drought early warning and mitigation systems in the Luanhe River Basin.
文摘Drought occurs in almost all climate zones and is characterized by prolonged water deficiency due to unbalanced demand and supply of water,persistent insufficient precipitation,lack of moisture,and high evapotranspiration.Drought caused by insufficient precipitation is a temporary and recurring meteorological event.Precipitation in semi-arid regions is different from that in other regions,ranging from 50 to 750 mm.In general,the semi-arid regions in the west and north of Iran received more precipitation than those in the east and south.The Terrestrial Climate(TerraClimate)data,including monthly precipitation,minimum temperature,maximum temperature,potential evapotranspiration,and the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI)developed by the University of Idaho,were used in this study.The PDSI data was directly obtained from the Google Earth Engine platform.The Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)on two different scales were calculated in time series and also both SPI and SPEI were shown in spatial distribution maps.The result showed that normal conditions were a common occurrence in the semi-arid regions of Iran over the majority of years from 2000 to 2020,according to a spatiotemporal study of the SPI at 3-month and 12-month time scales as well as the SPEI at 3-month and 12-month time scales.Moreover,the PDSI detected extreme dry years during 2000-2003 and in 2007,2014,and 2018.In many semi-arid regions of Iran,the SPI at 3-month time scale is higher than the SPEI at 3-month time scale in 2000,2008,2014,2015,and 2018.In general,this study concluded that the semi-arid regions underwent normal weather conditions from 2000 to 2020.In a way,moderate,severe,and extreme dry occurred with a lesser percentage,gradually decreasing.According to the PDSI,during 2000-2003 and 2007-2014,extreme dry struck practically all hot semi-arid regions of Iran.Several parts of the cold semi-arid regions,on the other hand,only experienced moderate to severe dry from 2000 to 2003,except for the eastern areas and wetter regions.The significance of this study is the determination of the spatiotemporal distribution of meteorological drought in semi-arid regions of Iran using strongly validated data from TerraClimate.
基金This research was funded by the Multigovernment International Science and Technology Innovation Cooperation Key Project of the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFE0184300)Erasmus+Capacity Building in Higher Education of the Education,Audiovisual and Culture Executive Agency(EACEA)(Grant No.586037-EPP-1-2017-1-HU-EPPKA2CBHE-JP)+3 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41561048)the Technical Methods and Empirical Study on Ecological Assets Measurement in County Level of Yunnan Province(Grant No.ZDZZD201506)the Young and Middleaged Academic and Technical Leaders Reserve Talents Training Program of Yunnan Province(Grant No.2008PY056)the Program for Innovative Research Team(in Science and Technology)at the University of Yunnan Province,IRTSTYN。
文摘Development of drought monitoring techniques is important for understanding and mitigating droughts and for rational agricultural management. This study used data from multiple sources, including MOD13 A3, TRMM 3 B43, and SRTMDEM, for Yunnan Province, China from 2009 to 2018 to calculate the tropical rainfall condition index(TRCI), vegetation condition index(VCI), temperature condition index(TCI), and elevation factors. Principal component analysis(PCA) and analytic hierarchy process(AHP) were used to construct comprehensive drought monitoring models for Yunnan Province. The reliability of the models was verified, following which the drought situation in Yunnan Province for the past ten years was analysed. The results showed that:(1) The comprehensive drought index(CDI) had a high correlation with the standardized precipitation index, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, temperature vegetation dryness index, and CLDAS(China Meteorological Administration land data assimilation system), indicating that the CDI was a strong indicator of drought through meteorological, remote sensing and soil moisture monitoring.(2) The droughts from 2009 to 2018 showed generally consistent spatiotemporal changes. Droughts occurred in most parts of the province, with an average drought frequency of 29% and four droughtprone centres.(3) Monthly drought coverage during 2009 to 2014 exceeded that over 2015 to 2018. January had the largest average drought coverage over the study period(61.92%). Droughts at most stations during the remaining months except for October exhibited a weakening trend(slope > 0). The CDI provides a novel approach for drought monitoring in areas with complex terrain such as Yunnan Province.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.U23A2020National Science and Technology Basic Resource Investigation Program,No.2023FY100701。
文摘In the context of global warming,escalating water cycles have led to a surge in drought frequency and severity.Yet,multidecadal fluctuations in drought and their multifaceted influencing factors remain inadequately understood.This study examined the multidecadal changes in drought characteristics(frequency,duration,and severity)and their geographical focal points within China's north-south transitional zone,the Qinling-Daba Mountains(QDM),from 1960 to 2017 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI).In addition,a suite of eight scenarios,correlation analysis,and wavelet coherence were used to identify the meteorological and circulation factors that influenced drought characteristics.The results indicate the following:(1)From 1960 to 2017,the QDM experienced significant interdecadal variations in drought frequency,duration,and severity,the climate was relatively humid before the 1990s,but drought intensified thereafter.Specifically,the 1990s marked the period of the longest drought duration and greatest severity,while the years spanning 2010 to 2017 experienced the highest frequency of drought events.(2)Spatially,the Qinling Mountains,particularly the western Qinling Mountain,exhibited higher drought frequency,duration,and severity than the Daba Mountains.This disparity can be attributed to higher rates of temperature increase and precipitation decrease in the western Qinling Mountain.(3)Interdecadal variations in droughts in the QDM were directly influenced by the synergistic effects of interdecadal fluctuations in air temperature and precipitation.Circulation factors modulate temperature and precipitation through phase transitions,thereby affecting drought dynamics in the QDM.The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation emerges as the primary circulation factors influencing temperature changes,with a mid-1990s shift to a positive phase favoring warming.The East Asian Summer Monsoon and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation are the main circulation factors affecting precipitation changes,with positive phase transitions associated with reduced precipitation,and vice versa for increased precipitation.
基金Under the auspices of the National Social Science Foundation of China (No.19CGL045)。
文摘Mastering the pattern of food loss caused by droughts and floods aids in planning the layout of agricultural production,determining the scale of drought and flood control projects,and reducing food loss.The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index is calculated using monthly meteorological data from 1984 to 2020 in Shandong Province of China and is used to identify the province’s drought and flood characteristics.Then,food losses due to droughts and floods are estimated separately from disaster loss data.Finally,the relationship between drought/flood-related factors and food losses is quantified using methods such as the Pearson correlation coefficient and linear regression.The results show that:1)there is a trend of aridity in Shandong Province,and the drought characteristic variables are increasing yearly while flood duration and severity are decreasing.2)The food losses caused by droughts in Shandong Province are more than those caused by floods,and the area where droughts and floods occur frequently is located in Linyi City.3)The impact of precipitation on food loss due to drought/flood is significant,followed by potential evapotranspiration and temperature.4)The relationship between drought and flood conditions and food losses can be precisely quantified.The accumulated drought duration of one month led to 1.939×10^(4)t of grain loss,and an increase in cumulative flood duration of one month resulted in1.134×10^(4)t of grain loss.If the cumulative drought severity and average drought peak increased by one unit,food loss due to drought will increase by 1.562×10^(4)t and 1.511×10^(6)t,respectively.If the cumulative flood severity and average flood peak increase by one unit,food loss will increase by 8.470×103t and 1.034×10^(6)t,respectively.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation,China(41371498)Comprehensive Process Observation and Test Platform Construction of Natural Geography in Marina Small Watershed,Sun Yat-sen University,China
文摘It is accepted that climate change has a great impact on water cycle and regional water balance,and thus it would change the formation and evolution conditions of drought in some degree. By using data at 42 meteorological stations of the Pearl River Basin,the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index（ SPEI） at different time scales was calculated. Based on the SPEIs of 1- 12 months,a newly proposed index for drought--Joint Drought Index（ JDI） was established under the multi-scale perspective through the copula function. Since short-term SPEIs are essential for the identification of emerging droughts and long-term SPEIs are useful for prolonged droughts,the JDI,which integrates all the usefull informations of drought and can thus form an overall judgement,is superior than the single SPEI in drought monitoring. By the forcast evaluation system and comparison to the actual drought,the accuracy and effectiveness of JDI in drought monitoring were verified. In general,JDI can be used as a new ideal index for future drought monitoring and assessment. Additionly,we analyzed the spatio-temperal characteristics of drought across the Pearl River Basin using the JDI. The results indicate that mild drought was the most frequent drought occurred in the Pearl River Basin over the past half century,and moderate drought followed. Severe drought and extreme drought would appear occasionally while exceptional drought could hardly be found. A dry-wet-dry interdecadal variation pattern had been found from the 1960 s to the 2000 s. Since the 21 stcentury,an obvious trend toward drought can be observed in the whole basin,especially in the Xijiang subbasin,which,consequently,poses an increasing challenge for the water resource planning and management.
基金funded by the Central Guidance on Local Science and Technology Development Fund of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China(2022ZY0153)the“One Region Two Bases”Supercomputing Capacity Building Project of Inner Mongolia University,China(21300-231510).
文摘Against the backdrop of global warming,climate extremes and drought events have become more severe,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.This study forecasted the characteristics of climate extremes in the Xilin River Basin(a semi-arid inland river basin)of China for the period of 2021–2100 by employing a multi-model ensemble approach based on three climate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Furthermore,a linear regression,a wavelet analysis,and the correlation analysis were conducted to explore the response of climate extremes to the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and Streamflow Drought Index(SDI),as well as their respective trends during the historical period from 1970 to 2020 and during the future period from 2021 to 2070.The results indicated that extreme high temperatures and extreme precipitation will further intensify under the higher forcing scenarios(SSP5-8.5>SSP2-4.5>SSP1-2.6)in the future.The SPEI trends under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were estimated as–0.003/a,–0.004/a,and–0.008/a,respectively,indicating a drier future climate.During the historical period(1970–2020),the SPEI and SDI trends were–0.003/a and–0.016/a,respectively,with significant cycles of 15 and 22 a,and abrupt changes occurring in 1995 and 1996,respectively.The next abrupt change in the SPEI was projected to occur in the 2040s.The SPEI had a significant positive correlation with both summer days(SU)and heavy precipitation days(R10mm),while the SDI was only significantly positively correlated with R10mm.Additionally,the SPEI and SDI exhibited a strong and consistent positive correlation at a cycle of 4–6 a,indicating a robust interdependence between the two indices.These findings have important implications for policy makers,enabling them to improve water resource management of inland river basins in arid and semi-arid areas under future climate uncertainty.
