The significant threat of wildfires to forest ecology and biodiversity,particularly in tropical and subtropical regions,underscores the necessity for advanced predictive models amidst shifting climate patterns.There i...The significant threat of wildfires to forest ecology and biodiversity,particularly in tropical and subtropical regions,underscores the necessity for advanced predictive models amidst shifting climate patterns.There is a need to evaluate and enhance wildfire prediction methods,focusing on their application during extended periods of intense heat and drought.This study reviews various wildfire modelling approaches,including traditional physical,semi-empirical,numerical,and emerging machine learning(ML)-based models.We critically assess these models’capabilities in predicting fire susceptibility and post-ignition spread,highlighting their strengths and limitations.Our findings indicate that while traditional models provide foundational insights,they often fall short in dynamically estimating parameters and predicting ignition events.Cellular automata models,despite their potential,face challenges in data integration and computational demands.Conversely,ML models demonstrate superior efficiency and accuracy by leveraging diverse datasets,though they encounter interpretability issues.This review recommends hybrid modelling approaches that integrate multiple methods to harness their combined strengths.By incorporating data assimilation techniques with dynamic forecasting models,the predictive capabilities of ML-based predictions can be significantly enhanced.This review underscores the necessity for continued refinement of these models to ensure their reliability in real-world applications,ultimately contributing to more effective wildfire mitigation and management strategies.Future research should focus on improving hybrid models and exploring new data integration methods to advance predictive capabilities.展开更多
BACKGROUND Colorectal laterally spreading tumors(LSTs)are best treated with endoscopic submucosal dissection or endoscopic mucosal resection.AIM To analyze the clinicopathological and endoscopic profiles of colorectal...BACKGROUND Colorectal laterally spreading tumors(LSTs)are best treated with endoscopic submucosal dissection or endoscopic mucosal resection.AIM To analyze the clinicopathological and endoscopic profiles of colorectal LSTs,determine predictive factors for high-grade dysplasia(HGD)/carcinoma(CA),submucosal invasion,and complications.METHODS We retrospectively assessed the endoscopic and histological characteristics of 375 colorectal LSTs at our hospital between January 2016 and December 2023.We performed univariate and multivariate analysis to identify risk factors associated with HGD/CA,submucosal invasion and complications.RESULTS The numbers of granular(LST-G)and non-granular LST(LST-NG)were 260 and 115,respectively.The rates of low-grade dysplasia and HGD/CA were 60.3%and 39.7%,respectively.Multivariate analysis indicated that a tumor size≥30 mm[odds ratio(OR)=1.934,P=0.032],LST granular nodular mixed type(OR=2.100,P=0.005),and LST non-granular pseudo depressed type(NG-PD)(OR=3.016,P=0.015)were independent risk factors significantly associated with higher odds of HGD/CA.NG-PD(OR=6.506,P=0.001),tumor size(20-29 mm)(OR=2.631,P=0.036)and tumor size≥30 mm(OR=3.449,P=0.016)were associated with increased odds of submucosal invasion.Tumor size≥30 mm(OR=4.888,P=0.003)was a particularly important predictor of complications.A nomogram model demonstrated a satisfactory fit,with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.716(95%confidence interval:0.653-0.780),indicating strong predictive performance.CONCLUSION The novel nomogram incorporating tumor size,location,and morphology predicted HGD/CA during endoscopic resection for LSTs.NG-PD lesions larger than 20 mm were more likely to invade the submucosa.Tumor size≥30 mm was an important predictor of complications.展开更多
Based on the characteristics of rumor spreading in online social networks, this paper proposes a new rumor spreading model. This is an improved SIS rumor spreading model in online social networks that combines the tra...Based on the characteristics of rumor spreading in online social networks, this paper proposes a new rumor spreading model. This is an improved SIS rumor spreading model in online social networks that combines the transmission dynamics and population dynamics with consideration of the impact of both of the changing number of online social network users and different levels of user activity. We numerically simulate the rumor spreading process. The results of numerical simulation show that the improved SIS model can successfully characterize the rumor spreading behavior in online social networks. We also give the effective strategies of curbing the rumor spreading in online social networks.展开更多
With processing and interpretation of 25 000 km full-coverage multibeam swath data fromthe eastern South China Sea, it is found that NE-trending and NW-trending linear morphological features such as scarps, horsts and...With processing and interpretation of 25 000 km full-coverage multibeam swath data fromthe eastern South China Sea, it is found that NE-trending and NW-trending linear morphological features such as scarps, horsts and grabens, govern the central part (14°-17° N) of eastern subbasin. Compared with reflection seismic profiles, these NE-trending linear morpho-structures are considered to be the representation of basement structures on seabed and can be divided into three linear structural zones. The trend of the central zone is NE45°-50° occurring around extinct spreading center, the trend of the second zone is NE70° - 78° on both sides of the central one and the trend of the third zone is about NE60° just on the north of the second one. These three NE-trending linear zones are formed in late-stage NW - SE-trending seafloor spreading of the eastern subbasin along NW-trending linear faults, and respectively correspond to three spreading episodes: 17.0- 19.0 Ma (5d-5e), 19.0 - 21.0 Ma (5e-6a) and 21.0 - 24.2 Ma (6a-6c) based on the contrast of morpho-structures to magnetic lineation anomalies.展开更多
As the dump was a typically heterogeneous body, the seepage was different with varied spreading solution modes. The phenomenon of lamination that occured in the site was simulated using three layers in an indoor exper...As the dump was a typically heterogeneous body, the seepage was different with varied spreading solution modes. The phenomenon of lamination that occured in the site was simulated using three layers in an indoor experiment, and the seepage effect comparison experiment of the inside spreading solution model and the top spreading solution model have been carried out. In the inside spreading solution mode, the phreatic planar flew without infiltration and the parallel layer motion model was used to calculate the seepage coefficient and equivalent seepage coefficient of each state respectively. In the top spreading solution model, the phreatic planar flew with an even infiltration on the surface, and the vertical layer motion model was adopted to calculate the above coefficient. The results showed that the seepage coefficient of the inside model was larger than the top model in the heterogeneous body, The ratio of them was between 1.42 and 3.07. On the basis of these results, the following new technologies were discussed： installing a few small diameter mechanical pore sand piles with every lamination in the using dump; drilling some holes one-off in the unused dump. These two methods could changed the top spreading solution into the inside model, thus the seepage in the dump was improved.展开更多
Abstract Spreading of nanofluids on solid substrate was studied via molecular dynamics simulations. Simulation models for two immiscible fluids （oil and water based nanofiuids） confined in a slit between two planar ...Abstract Spreading of nanofluids on solid substrate was studied via molecular dynamics simulations. Simulation models for two immiscible fluids （oil and water based nanofiuids） confined in a slit between two planar solid walls were set up. The influence of the volume concentration of the nanoparticles on the three-phase contact line motion was investigated. We found that the larger volume concentration results in more visible nanoparticle adsorption on solid surface. This effect further induces an advancing displacement of the contact line compared with the meniscus profiles in low concentration case and that with the absence of nanoparticles. These findings are consistent with the previous experimental and theoretical results and provide the atomic-scale understanding on nanofluid spreading.展开更多
We quantified the systematic variations in global transform fault morphology,revealing a first-order dependence on the spreading rate.(1)The average age offset of both the full transform and transform sub-segments dec...We quantified the systematic variations in global transform fault morphology,revealing a first-order dependence on the spreading rate.(1)The average age offset of both the full transform and transform sub-segments decrease with increasing spreading rate.(2)The average depth of both the transform valley and adjacent ridges are smaller in the fast compared to the slow systems,reflecting possibly density anomalies associated with warmer mantle at the fast systems and rifting at the slow ridges.However,the average depth difference between the transform valley and adjacent ridges is relatively constant from the fast to slow systems.(3)The nodal basin at a ridge-transform intersection is deeper and dominant at the ultraslow and slow systems,possibly reflecting a lower magma supply and stronger viscous resistance to mantle upwelling near a colder transform wall.In contrast,the nodal high,is most prominent in the fast,intermediate,and hotspot-influenced systems,where robust axial volcanic ridges extend toward the ridge-transform intersection.(4)Statistically,the average transform valley is wider at a transform system of larger age offset,reflecting thicker deforming plates flanking the transform fault.(5)The maximum magnitude of the transform earthquakes increases with age offset owing to an increase in the seismogenic area.Individual transform faults also exhibit significant anomalies owing to the complex local tectonic and magmatic processes.展开更多
The potential mechanisms of the spreading phenomena uncover the organizations and functions of various systems.However,due to the lack of valid data,most of early works are limited to the simulated process on model ne...The potential mechanisms of the spreading phenomena uncover the organizations and functions of various systems.However,due to the lack of valid data,most of early works are limited to the simulated process on model networks.In this paper,we track and analyze the propagation paths of real spreading events on two social networks:Twitter and Brightkite.The empirical analysis reveals that the spreading probability and the spreading velocity present the explosive growth within a short period,where the spreading probability measures the transferring likelihood between two neighboring nodes,and the spreading velocity is the growth rate of the information in the whole network.Besides,we observe the asynchronism between the spreading probability and the spreading velocity.To explain the interesting and abnormal issue,we introduce the time-varying spreading probability into the susceptible-infected(SI)and linear threshold(LT)models.Both the analytic and experimental results reproduce the spreading phenomenon in real networks,which deepens our understandings of spreading problems.展开更多
The time evolution of the Hamming distance (damage spreading) for the and Ising models on the square lattice is performed with a special metropolis dynamics algorithm. Two distinct regimes are observed according to ...The time evolution of the Hamming distance (damage spreading) for the and Ising models on the square lattice is performed with a special metropolis dynamics algorithm. Two distinct regimes are observed according to the temperature range for both models: a low-temperature one where the distance in the long-time limit is finite and seems not to depend on the initial distance and the system size; a high-temperature one where the distance vanishes in the long-time limit. Using the finite size scaling method, the dynamical phase transition (damage spreading transition) temperature is obtained as for the Ising model.展开更多
The problem of two order statistics detection schemes for the detection of a spatially distributed target in white Gaussian noise are studied.When the number of strong scattering cells is known,we first show an optima...The problem of two order statistics detection schemes for the detection of a spatially distributed target in white Gaussian noise are studied.When the number of strong scattering cells is known,we first show an optimal detector,which requires many processing channels.The structure of such optimal detector is complex.Therefore,a simpler quasi-optimal detector is then introduced.The quasi-optimal detector,called the strong scattering cells’ number dependent order statistics（SND-OS） detector,takes the form of an average of maximum strong scattering cells with a known number.If the number of strong scattering cells is unknown in real situation,the multi-channel order statistics（MC-OS） detector is used.In each channel,a various number of maximums scattered from target are averaged.Then,the false alarm probability analysis and thresholds sets for each channel are given,following the detection results presented by means of Monte Carlo simulation strategy based on simulated target model and three measured targets.In particular,the theoretical analysis and simulation results highlight that the MC-OS detector can efficiently detect range-spread targets in white Gaussian noise.展开更多
The prevention and treatment of epidemic is always an urgent problem faced by the human being. Due to the special space structure, huge passenger flow and great people mobility, the subway lines have become the areas ...The prevention and treatment of epidemic is always an urgent problem faced by the human being. Due to the special space structure, huge passenger flow and great people mobility, the subway lines have become the areas with high epidemic transmission risks. However, there is no recent study related to epidemic transmission in the subway network on urban-scale. In this article, from the perspective of big data, we study the transmission risk of epidemic in Beijing subway network by using urban subway mobility data. By reintegrating and mining the urban subway mobility data, we preliminary assess the transmission risk in the subway lines from the passenger behaviors, station features, route features and individual case on the basis of subway network structure. This study has certain practical significance for the early stage of epidemic tracking and prevention.展开更多
基金funding enabled and organized by CAUL and its Member Institutions.
文摘The significant threat of wildfires to forest ecology and biodiversity,particularly in tropical and subtropical regions,underscores the necessity for advanced predictive models amidst shifting climate patterns.There is a need to evaluate and enhance wildfire prediction methods,focusing on their application during extended periods of intense heat and drought.This study reviews various wildfire modelling approaches,including traditional physical,semi-empirical,numerical,and emerging machine learning(ML)-based models.We critically assess these models’capabilities in predicting fire susceptibility and post-ignition spread,highlighting their strengths and limitations.Our findings indicate that while traditional models provide foundational insights,they often fall short in dynamically estimating parameters and predicting ignition events.Cellular automata models,despite their potential,face challenges in data integration and computational demands.Conversely,ML models demonstrate superior efficiency and accuracy by leveraging diverse datasets,though they encounter interpretability issues.This review recommends hybrid modelling approaches that integrate multiple methods to harness their combined strengths.By incorporating data assimilation techniques with dynamic forecasting models,the predictive capabilities of ML-based predictions can be significantly enhanced.This review underscores the necessity for continued refinement of these models to ensure their reliability in real-world applications,ultimately contributing to more effective wildfire mitigation and management strategies.Future research should focus on improving hybrid models and exploring new data integration methods to advance predictive capabilities.
文摘BACKGROUND Colorectal laterally spreading tumors(LSTs)are best treated with endoscopic submucosal dissection or endoscopic mucosal resection.AIM To analyze the clinicopathological and endoscopic profiles of colorectal LSTs,determine predictive factors for high-grade dysplasia(HGD)/carcinoma(CA),submucosal invasion,and complications.METHODS We retrospectively assessed the endoscopic and histological characteristics of 375 colorectal LSTs at our hospital between January 2016 and December 2023.We performed univariate and multivariate analysis to identify risk factors associated with HGD/CA,submucosal invasion and complications.RESULTS The numbers of granular(LST-G)and non-granular LST(LST-NG)were 260 and 115,respectively.The rates of low-grade dysplasia and HGD/CA were 60.3%and 39.7%,respectively.Multivariate analysis indicated that a tumor size≥30 mm[odds ratio(OR)=1.934,P=0.032],LST granular nodular mixed type(OR=2.100,P=0.005),and LST non-granular pseudo depressed type(NG-PD)(OR=3.016,P=0.015)were independent risk factors significantly associated with higher odds of HGD/CA.NG-PD(OR=6.506,P=0.001),tumor size(20-29 mm)(OR=2.631,P=0.036)and tumor size≥30 mm(OR=3.449,P=0.016)were associated with increased odds of submucosal invasion.Tumor size≥30 mm(OR=4.888,P=0.003)was a particularly important predictor of complications.A nomogram model demonstrated a satisfactory fit,with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.716(95%confidence interval:0.653-0.780),indicating strong predictive performance.CONCLUSION The novel nomogram incorporating tumor size,location,and morphology predicted HGD/CA during endoscopic resection for LSTs.NG-PD lesions larger than 20 mm were more likely to invade the submucosa.Tumor size≥30 mm was an important predictor of complications.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.11275017 and 11173028
文摘Based on the characteristics of rumor spreading in online social networks, this paper proposes a new rumor spreading model. This is an improved SIS rumor spreading model in online social networks that combines the transmission dynamics and population dynamics with consideration of the impact of both of the changing number of online social network users and different levels of user activity. We numerically simulate the rumor spreading process. The results of numerical simulation show that the improved SIS model can successfully characterize the rumor spreading behavior in online social networks. We also give the effective strategies of curbing the rumor spreading in online social networks.
基金This study was supported by the National Major Fundamental Research Development Project of China under contract No. G2000046704.
文摘With processing and interpretation of 25 000 km full-coverage multibeam swath data fromthe eastern South China Sea, it is found that NE-trending and NW-trending linear morphological features such as scarps, horsts and grabens, govern the central part (14°-17° N) of eastern subbasin. Compared with reflection seismic profiles, these NE-trending linear morpho-structures are considered to be the representation of basement structures on seabed and can be divided into three linear structural zones. The trend of the central zone is NE45°-50° occurring around extinct spreading center, the trend of the second zone is NE70° - 78° on both sides of the central one and the trend of the third zone is about NE60° just on the north of the second one. These three NE-trending linear zones are formed in late-stage NW - SE-trending seafloor spreading of the eastern subbasin along NW-trending linear faults, and respectively correspond to three spreading episodes: 17.0- 19.0 Ma (5d-5e), 19.0 - 21.0 Ma (5e-6a) and 21.0 - 24.2 Ma (6a-6c) based on the contrast of morpho-structures to magnetic lineation anomalies.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development Programme of China(No.2004CB612905)National 0riginality Innovation Population Project of China(No.50321402)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50574099).
文摘As the dump was a typically heterogeneous body, the seepage was different with varied spreading solution modes. The phenomenon of lamination that occured in the site was simulated using three layers in an indoor experiment, and the seepage effect comparison experiment of the inside spreading solution model and the top spreading solution model have been carried out. In the inside spreading solution mode, the phreatic planar flew without infiltration and the parallel layer motion model was used to calculate the seepage coefficient and equivalent seepage coefficient of each state respectively. In the top spreading solution model, the phreatic planar flew with an even infiltration on the surface, and the vertical layer motion model was adopted to calculate the above coefficient. The results showed that the seepage coefficient of the inside model was larger than the top model in the heterogeneous body, The ratio of them was between 1.42 and 3.07. On the basis of these results, the following new technologies were discussed： installing a few small diameter mechanical pore sand piles with every lamination in the using dump; drilling some holes one-off in the unused dump. These two methods could changed the top spreading solution into the inside model, thus the seepage in the dump was improved.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11172289,U1262103,and 11302218)Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation(1308085QA10)+1 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2012M521243)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(WK2090050022 and WK20900050027)
文摘Abstract Spreading of nanofluids on solid substrate was studied via molecular dynamics simulations. Simulation models for two immiscible fluids （oil and water based nanofiuids） confined in a slit between two planar solid walls were set up. The influence of the volume concentration of the nanoparticles on the three-phase contact line motion was investigated. We found that the larger volume concentration results in more visible nanoparticle adsorption on solid surface. This effect further induces an advancing displacement of the contact line compared with the meniscus profiles in low concentration case and that with the absence of nanoparticles. These findings are consistent with the previous experimental and theoretical results and provide the atomic-scale understanding on nanofluid spreading.
基金The foundation of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou)under contract No.GML2019ZD0205the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41976064,41890813,41976066,91958211,and 41706056+4 种基金the scholarship of China Scholarship Councilthe foundations of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract Nos Y4SL021001,QYZDY-SSW-DQC005,133244KYSB20180029,and 131551KYSB20200021the National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2018YFC0309800 and 2018YFC0310105the Foundation of the China Ocean Mineral Resources Research and Development Association under contract No.DY135-S2-1-04the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation under contract No.2021A1515012227。
文摘We quantified the systematic variations in global transform fault morphology,revealing a first-order dependence on the spreading rate.(1)The average age offset of both the full transform and transform sub-segments decrease with increasing spreading rate.(2)The average depth of both the transform valley and adjacent ridges are smaller in the fast compared to the slow systems,reflecting possibly density anomalies associated with warmer mantle at the fast systems and rifting at the slow ridges.However,the average depth difference between the transform valley and adjacent ridges is relatively constant from the fast to slow systems.(3)The nodal basin at a ridge-transform intersection is deeper and dominant at the ultraslow and slow systems,possibly reflecting a lower magma supply and stronger viscous resistance to mantle upwelling near a colder transform wall.In contrast,the nodal high,is most prominent in the fast,intermediate,and hotspot-influenced systems,where robust axial volcanic ridges extend toward the ridge-transform intersection.(4)Statistically,the average transform valley is wider at a transform system of larger age offset,reflecting thicker deforming plates flanking the transform fault.(5)The maximum magnitude of the transform earthquakes increases with age offset owing to an increase in the seismogenic area.Individual transform faults also exhibit significant anomalies owing to the complex local tectonic and magmatic processes.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.61703281,11547040,61803266,61503140,and 61873171)the PhD Start-Up Fund of Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China(Grant Nos.2017A030310374 and 2016A030313036)+1 种基金the Science and Technology Innovation Commission of Shenzhen,China(Grant No.JCYJ20180305124628810)the China Scholarship Council(Grant No.201806340213).
文摘The potential mechanisms of the spreading phenomena uncover the organizations and functions of various systems.However,due to the lack of valid data,most of early works are limited to the simulated process on model networks.In this paper,we track and analyze the propagation paths of real spreading events on two social networks:Twitter and Brightkite.The empirical analysis reveals that the spreading probability and the spreading velocity present the explosive growth within a short period,where the spreading probability measures the transferring likelihood between two neighboring nodes,and the spreading velocity is the growth rate of the information in the whole network.Besides,we observe the asynchronism between the spreading probability and the spreading velocity.To explain the interesting and abnormal issue,we introduce the time-varying spreading probability into the susceptible-infected(SI)and linear threshold(LT)models.Both the analytic and experimental results reproduce the spreading phenomenon in real networks,which deepens our understandings of spreading problems.
文摘The time evolution of the Hamming distance (damage spreading) for the and Ising models on the square lattice is performed with a special metropolis dynamics algorithm. Two distinct regimes are observed according to the temperature range for both models: a low-temperature one where the distance in the long-time limit is finite and seems not to depend on the initial distance and the system size; a high-temperature one where the distance vanishes in the long-time limit. Using the finite size scaling method, the dynamical phase transition (damage spreading transition) temperature is obtained as for the Ising model.
基金supported by the Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (10990012)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (61201296,61271024)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (K5051202037)Guangxi Key Lab of Wireless Wideband Communication & Signal Processing (12205)
文摘The problem of two order statistics detection schemes for the detection of a spatially distributed target in white Gaussian noise are studied.When the number of strong scattering cells is known,we first show an optimal detector,which requires many processing channels.The structure of such optimal detector is complex.Therefore,a simpler quasi-optimal detector is then introduced.The quasi-optimal detector,called the strong scattering cells’ number dependent order statistics（SND-OS） detector,takes the form of an average of maximum strong scattering cells with a known number.If the number of strong scattering cells is unknown in real situation,the multi-channel order statistics（MC-OS） detector is used.In each channel,a various number of maximums scattered from target are averaged.Then,the false alarm probability analysis and thresholds sets for each channel are given,following the detection results presented by means of Monte Carlo simulation strategy based on simulated target model and three measured targets.In particular,the theoretical analysis and simulation results highlight that the MC-OS detector can efficiently detect range-spread targets in white Gaussian noise.
文摘The prevention and treatment of epidemic is always an urgent problem faced by the human being. Due to the special space structure, huge passenger flow and great people mobility, the subway lines have become the areas with high epidemic transmission risks. However, there is no recent study related to epidemic transmission in the subway network on urban-scale. In this article, from the perspective of big data, we study the transmission risk of epidemic in Beijing subway network by using urban subway mobility data. By reintegrating and mining the urban subway mobility data, we preliminary assess the transmission risk in the subway lines from the passenger behaviors, station features, route features and individual case on the basis of subway network structure. This study has certain practical significance for the early stage of epidemic tracking and prevention.
