How to simulate land-cover change,driven by climate change and human activity,is not only a hot issue in the field of land-cover research but also in the field of sustainable urbanization.A surface-modeling method of ...How to simulate land-cover change,driven by climate change and human activity,is not only a hot issue in the field of land-cover research but also in the field of sustainable urbanization.A surface-modeling method of land cover scenario(SSMLC)driven by the coupling of natural and human factors was developed to overcome limitations in existing land-cover models.Based on the climatic scenario data of CMIP6 SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 released by IPCC in 2020,which combines shared socioeconomic paths(SSPs)with typical concentration paths(RCPs),observation climatic data concerning meteorological stations,the population,GDP,transportation data,land-cover data from 2020,and related policy refences,are used to simulate scenarios of land-cover change in the Jing-Jin-Ji region using SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 for the years 2040,2070 and 2100,respectively.The simulation results show that the total accuracy of SSMLC in the Jing-Jin-Ji region attains 93.52%.The change intensity of land cover in the Jing-Jin-Ji region is the highest(plus 3.12%per decade)between 2020 and 2040,gradually decreasing after 2040.Built-up land has the fastest increasing rate(plus 5.07%per decade),and wetland has the fastest decreasing rate(minus 3.10%per decade)between 2020 and 2100.The change intensity of land cover under scenario SSP5-8.5 is the highest among the abovementioned three scenarios in the Jing-Jin-Ji region between 2020 and 2100.The impacts of GDP,population,transportation,and policies on land-cover change are generally greater than those on other land-cover types.The results indicate that the SSMLC method can be used to project the change trend and intensity of land cover under the different scenarios.This will help to optimize the spatial allocation and planning of land cover,and could be used to obtain key data for carrying out eco-environmental conservation measures in the Jing-Jin-Ji region in the future.展开更多
It is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation to carry out disaster simulations for dam failure accidents in advance,but at present,there are few professional systems for disaster simulations of t...It is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation to carry out disaster simulations for dam failure accidents in advance,but at present,there are few professional systems for disaster simulations of tailings dams.In this paper,we focused on the construction of a virtual geographic environment(VGE)system that provides an effective tool for visualizing the dam-break process of a tailings pond.The dam-break numerical model of the tailings dam based on computational fluid dynamics(CFD)was integrated into the VGE system.The infrastructure of the VGE was supported by a 3-D geographic information system(GIS)with a user-friendly interface for the initiation,visualization,and analysis of the dynamic process of tailings dam failure.Key technologies,including the integration of numerical models,rendering of large-scale scenes,and optimizations of disaster simulation and visualization,were discussed in detail.In the prototype system,information on the run-out path,travel distance,etc.can be obtained to visually describe the flow motion released by two dam failure cases.The simulation results showed that the VGE can be used for the multidimensional,dynamic and interactive visualization of dam-break disasters,and can also be useful for assessing the risk associated with tailings dams.展开更多
基金National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFA0603702)National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC0507202)+3 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971358)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41930647)Strategic Priority Research Program(A)of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20030203)Innovation Research Project of State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environment Information System,CAS。
文摘How to simulate land-cover change,driven by climate change and human activity,is not only a hot issue in the field of land-cover research but also in the field of sustainable urbanization.A surface-modeling method of land cover scenario(SSMLC)driven by the coupling of natural and human factors was developed to overcome limitations in existing land-cover models.Based on the climatic scenario data of CMIP6 SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 released by IPCC in 2020,which combines shared socioeconomic paths(SSPs)with typical concentration paths(RCPs),observation climatic data concerning meteorological stations,the population,GDP,transportation data,land-cover data from 2020,and related policy refences,are used to simulate scenarios of land-cover change in the Jing-Jin-Ji region using SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 for the years 2040,2070 and 2100,respectively.The simulation results show that the total accuracy of SSMLC in the Jing-Jin-Ji region attains 93.52%.The change intensity of land cover in the Jing-Jin-Ji region is the highest(plus 3.12%per decade)between 2020 and 2040,gradually decreasing after 2040.Built-up land has the fastest increasing rate(plus 5.07%per decade),and wetland has the fastest decreasing rate(minus 3.10%per decade)between 2020 and 2100.The change intensity of land cover under scenario SSP5-8.5 is the highest among the abovementioned three scenarios in the Jing-Jin-Ji region between 2020 and 2100.The impacts of GDP,population,transportation,and policies on land-cover change are generally greater than those on other land-cover types.The results indicate that the SSMLC method can be used to project the change trend and intensity of land cover under the different scenarios.This will help to optimize the spatial allocation and planning of land cover,and could be used to obtain key data for carrying out eco-environmental conservation measures in the Jing-Jin-Ji region in the future.
基金supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2017YFB0504203].
文摘It is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation to carry out disaster simulations for dam failure accidents in advance,but at present,there are few professional systems for disaster simulations of tailings dams.In this paper,we focused on the construction of a virtual geographic environment(VGE)system that provides an effective tool for visualizing the dam-break process of a tailings pond.The dam-break numerical model of the tailings dam based on computational fluid dynamics(CFD)was integrated into the VGE system.The infrastructure of the VGE was supported by a 3-D geographic information system(GIS)with a user-friendly interface for the initiation,visualization,and analysis of the dynamic process of tailings dam failure.Key technologies,including the integration of numerical models,rendering of large-scale scenes,and optimizations of disaster simulation and visualization,were discussed in detail.In the prototype system,information on the run-out path,travel distance,etc.can be obtained to visually describe the flow motion released by two dam failure cases.The simulation results showed that the VGE can be used for the multidimensional,dynamic and interactive visualization of dam-break disasters,and can also be useful for assessing the risk associated with tailings dams.
