In recent years,human motion prediction has become an active research topic in computer vision.However,owing to the complexity and stochastic nature of human motion,it remains a challenging problem.In previous works,h...In recent years,human motion prediction has become an active research topic in computer vision.However,owing to the complexity and stochastic nature of human motion,it remains a challenging problem.In previous works,human motion prediction has always been treated as a typical inter-sequence problem,and most works have aimed to capture the temporal dependence between successive frames.However,although these approaches focused on the effects of the temporal dimension,they rarely considered the correlation between different joints in space.Thus,the spatio-temporal coupling of human joints is considered,to propose a novel spatio-temporal network based on a transformer and a gragh convolutional network(GCN)(STTG-Net).The temporal transformer is used to capture the global temporal dependencies,and the spatial GCN module is used to establish local spatial correlations between the joints for each frame.To overcome the problems of error accumulation and discontinuity in the motion prediction,a revision method based on fusion strategy is also proposed,in which the current prediction frame is fused with the previous frame.The experimental results show that the proposed prediction method has less prediction error and the prediction motion is smoother than previous prediction methods.The effectiveness of the proposed method is also demonstrated comparing it with the state-of-the-art method on the Human3.6 M dataset.展开更多
As one of the core modules for air traffic flow management,Air Traffic Flow Prediction(ATFP)in the Multi-Airport System(MAS)is a prerequisite for demand and capacity balance in the complex meteorological environment.D...As one of the core modules for air traffic flow management,Air Traffic Flow Prediction(ATFP)in the Multi-Airport System(MAS)is a prerequisite for demand and capacity balance in the complex meteorological environment.Due to the challenge of implicit interaction mechanism among traffic flow,airspace capacity and weather impact,the Weather-aware ATFP(Wa-ATFP)is still a nontrivial issue.In this paper,a novel Multi-faceted Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network(MSTGCN)is proposed to address the Wa-ATFP within the complex operations of MAS.Firstly,a spatio-temporal graph is constructed with three different nodes,including airport,route,and fix to describe the topology structure of MAS.Secondly,a weather-aware multi-faceted fusion module is proposed to integrate the feature of air traffic flow and the auxiliary features of capacity and weather,which can effectively address the complex impact of severe weather,e.g.,thunderstorms.Thirdly,to capture the latent connections of nodes,an adaptive graph connection constructor is designed.The experimental results with the real-world operational dataset in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,China,validate that the proposed approach outperforms the state-of-the-art machine-learning and deep-learning based baseline approaches in performance.展开更多
This study proposes a novel forecasting framework that simultaneously captures the strong periodicity and irregular meteorological fluctuations inherent in solar radiation time series.Existing approaches typically def...This study proposes a novel forecasting framework that simultaneously captures the strong periodicity and irregular meteorological fluctuations inherent in solar radiation time series.Existing approaches typically define inter-regional correlations using either simple correlation coefficients or distance-based measures when applying spatio-temporal graph neural networks(STGNNs).However,such definitions are prone to generating spurious correlations due to the dominance of periodic structures.To address this limitation,we adopt the Elastic-Band Transform(EBT)to decompose solar radiation into periodic and amplitude-modulated components,which are then modeled independently with separate graph neural networks.The periodic component,characterized by strong nationwide correlations,is learned with a relatively simple architecture,whereas the amplitude-modulated component is modeled with more complex STGNNs that capture climatological similarities between regions.The predictions from the two components are subsequently recombined to yield final forecasts that integrate both periodic patterns and aperiodic variability.The proposed framework is validated with multiple STGNN architectures,and experimental results demonstrate improved predictive accuracy and interpretability compared to conventional methods.展开更多
Long-term traffic flow prediction is a crucial component of intelligent transportation systems within intelligent networks,requiring predictive models that balance accuracy with low-latency and lightweight computation...Long-term traffic flow prediction is a crucial component of intelligent transportation systems within intelligent networks,requiring predictive models that balance accuracy with low-latency and lightweight computation to optimize trafficmanagement and enhance urban mobility and sustainability.However,traditional predictivemodels struggle to capture long-term temporal dependencies and are computationally intensive,limiting their practicality in real-time.Moreover,many approaches overlook the periodic characteristics inherent in traffic data,further impacting performance.To address these challenges,we introduce ST-MambaGCN,a State-Space-Based Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolution Network.Unlike conventionalmodels,ST-MambaGCN replaces the temporal attention layer withMamba,a state-space model that efficiently captures long-term dependencies with near-linear computational complexity.The model combines Chebyshev polynomial-based graph convolutional networks(GCN)to explore spatial correlations.Additionally,we incorporate a multi-temporal feature capture mechanism,where the final integrated features are generated through the Hadamard product based on learnable parameters.This mechanism explicitly models shortterm,daily,and weekly traffic patterns to enhance the network’s awareness of traffic periodicity.Extensive experiments on the PeMS04 and PeMS08 datasets demonstrate that ST-MambaGCN significantly outperforms existing benchmarks,offering substantial improvements in both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency for long-term traffic flow prediction.展开更多
The ability to accurately predict urban traffic flows is crucial for optimising city operations.Consequently,various methods for forecasting urban traffic have been developed,focusing on analysing historical data to u...The ability to accurately predict urban traffic flows is crucial for optimising city operations.Consequently,various methods for forecasting urban traffic have been developed,focusing on analysing historical data to understand complex mobility patterns.Deep learning techniques,such as graph neural networks(GNNs),are popular for their ability to capture spatio-temporal dependencies.However,these models often become overly complex due to the large number of hyper-parameters involved.In this study,we introduce Dynamic Multi-Graph Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equation Networks(DMST-GNODE),a framework based on ordinary differential equations(ODEs)that autonomously discovers effective spatial-temporal graph neural network(STGNN)architectures for traffic prediction tasks.The comparative analysis of DMST-GNODE and baseline models indicates that DMST-GNODE model demonstrates superior performance across multiple datasets,consistently achieving the lowest Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)values,alongside the highest accuracy.On the BKK(Bangkok)dataset,it outperformed other models with an RMSE of 3.3165 and an accuracy of 0.9367 for a 20-min interval,maintaining this trend across 40 and 60 min.Similarly,on the PeMS08 dataset,DMST-GNODE achieved the best performance with an RMSE of 19.4863 and an accuracy of 0.9377 at 20 min,demonstrating its effectiveness over longer periods.The Los_Loop dataset results further emphasise this model’s advantage,with an RMSE of 3.3422 and an accuracy of 0.7643 at 20 min,consistently maintaining superiority across all time intervals.These numerical highlights indicate that DMST-GNODE not only outperforms baseline models but also achieves higher accuracy and lower errors across different time intervals and datasets.展开更多
The pseudo-two-dimensional(P2D)model plays an important role in exploring physicochemical mechanisms,predicting the state of health,and improving the fast charge capability for Li-ion batteries(LIBs).However,the fast ...The pseudo-two-dimensional(P2D)model plays an important role in exploring physicochemical mechanisms,predicting the state of health,and improving the fast charge capability for Li-ion batteries(LIBs).However,the fast charge leads to the lithium concentration gradient in the solid and electrolyte phases and the non-uniform electrochemical reaction at the solid/electrolyte interface.In order to decouple charge transfer reactions in LIBs under dynamic conditions,understanding the spatio-temporal resolution of the P2D model is urgently required.Till now,the study of this aspect is still insufficient.This work studies the spatio-temporal resolution for dynamic/static electrochemical impedance spectroscopy(DEIS/SEIS)on multiple scales.In detail,DEIS and SEIS with spatio-temporal resolutions are used to decouple charge transfer reactions in LIBs based on the numerical solution of the P2D model in the frequency domain.The calculated results indicate that decoupling solid diffusion requires a high spatial resolution along the r-direction in particles,decoupling electrolyte diffusion and interfacial transfer reaction requires a high spatial resolution along the x-direction,and decoupling charge transfer reactions in LIBs at an extremely low state of charge(SOC)requires an extremely high temporal resolution along the t-direction.Finally,the optimal range of spatio-temporal resolutions for DEIS/SEIS is derived,and the method to decouple charge transfer reactions with spatio-temporal resolutions is developed.展开更多
Electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis is critical for detecting arrhythmias, but traditional methods struggle with large-scale Electrocardiogram data and rare arrhythmia events in imbalanced datasets. These methods fail to...Electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis is critical for detecting arrhythmias, but traditional methods struggle with large-scale Electrocardiogram data and rare arrhythmia events in imbalanced datasets. These methods fail to perform multi-perspective learning of temporal signals and Electrocardiogram images, nor can they fully extract the latent information within the data, falling short of the accuracy required by clinicians. Therefore, this paper proposes an innovative hybrid multimodal spatiotemporal neural network to address these challenges. The model employs a multimodal data augmentation framework integrating visual and signal-based features to enhance the classification performance of rare arrhythmias in imbalanced datasets. Additionally, the spatiotemporal fusion module incorporates a spatiotemporal graph convolutional network to jointly model temporal and spatial features, uncovering complex dependencies within the Electrocardiogram data and improving the model’s ability to represent complex patterns. In experiments conducted on the MIT-BIH arrhythmia dataset, the model achieved 99.95% accuracy, 99.80% recall, and a 99.78% F1 score. The model was further validated for generalization using the clinical INCART arrhythmia dataset, and the results demonstrated its effectiveness in terms of both generalization and robustness.展开更多
Due to water conflicts and allocation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),the spatio-temporal differentiation of total water resources and the natural-human influence need to be clarified.This work investigated LM...Due to water conflicts and allocation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),the spatio-temporal differentiation of total water resources and the natural-human influence need to be clarified.This work investigated LMRB's terrestrial water storage anomaly(TWSA)and its spatio-temporal dynamics during 2002–2020.Considering the effects of natural factors and human activities,the respective contributions of climate variability and human activities to terrestrial water storage change(TWSC)were separated.Results showed that:(1)LMRB's TWSA decreased by 0.3158 cm/a.(2)TWSA showed a gradual increase in distribution from southwest of MRB to middle LMRB and from northeast of LRB to middle LMRB.TWSA positively changed in Myanmar while slightly changed in Laos and China.It negatively changed in Vietnam,Thailand and Cambodia.(3)TWSA components decreased in a descending order of soil moisture,groundwater and precipitation.(4)Natural factors had a substantial and spatial differentiated influence on TWSA over the LMRB.(5)Climate variability contributed 79%of TWSC in the LMRB while human activities contributed 21%with an increasing impact after 2008.The TWSC of upstream basin countries was found to be controlled by climate variability while Vietnam and Cambodia's TWSC has been controlled by human activities since 2012.展开更多
Source localization of focal electrical activity from scalp electroencephalogram (sEEG) signal is generally modeled as an inverse problem that is highly ill-posed. In this paper, a novel source localization method is ...Source localization of focal electrical activity from scalp electroencephalogram (sEEG) signal is generally modeled as an inverse problem that is highly ill-posed. In this paper, a novel source localization method is proposed to model the EEG inverse problem using spatio-temporal long-short term memory recurrent neural networks (LSTM). The network model consists of two parts, sEEG encoding and source decoding, to model the sEEG signal and receive the regression of source location. As there does not exist enough annotated sEEG signals correspond to specific source locations, simulated data is generated with forward model using finite element method (FEM) to act as a part of training signals. A framework for source localization is proposed to estimate the source position based on simulated training data. Experiments are done on simulated testing data. The results on simulated data exhibit good robustness on noise signal, and the proposed network solves the EEG inverse problem with spatio-temporal deep network. The result show that the proposed method overcomes the highly ill-posed linear inverse problem with data driven learning.展开更多
The technique of incremental updating,which can better guarantee the real-time situation of navigational map,is the developing orientation of navigational road network updating.The data center of vehicle navigation sy...The technique of incremental updating,which can better guarantee the real-time situation of navigational map,is the developing orientation of navigational road network updating.The data center of vehicle navigation system is in charge of storing incremental data,and the spatio-temporal data model for storing incremental data does affect the efficiency of the response of the data center to the requirements of incremental data from the vehicle terminal.According to the analysis on the shortcomings of several typical spatio-temporal data models used in the data center and based on the base map with overlay model,the reverse map with overlay model (RMOM) was put forward for the data center to make rapid response to incremental data request.RMOM supports the data center to store not only the current complete road network data,but also the overlays of incremental data from the time when each road network changed to the current moment.Moreover,the storage mechanism and index structure of the incremental data were designed,and the implementation algorithm of RMOM was developed.Taking navigational road network in Guangzhou City as an example,the simulation test was conducted to validate the efficiency of RMOM.Results show that the navigation database in the data center can response to the requirements of incremental data by only one query with RMOM,and costs less time.Compared with the base map with overlay model,the data center does not need to temporarily overlay incremental data with RMOM,so time-consuming of response is significantly reduced.RMOM greatly improves the efficiency of response and provides strong support for the real-time situation of navigational road network.展开更多
Traffic flow prediction is an important part of the intelligent transportation system. Accurate multi-step traffic flow prediction plays an important role in improving the operational efficiency of the traffic network...Traffic flow prediction is an important part of the intelligent transportation system. Accurate multi-step traffic flow prediction plays an important role in improving the operational efficiency of the traffic network. Since traffic flow data has complex spatio-temporal correlation and non-linearity, existing prediction methods are mainly accomplished through a combination of a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) and a recurrent neural network. The combination strategy has an excellent performance in traffic prediction tasks. However, multi-step prediction error accumulates with the predicted step size. Some scholars use multiple sampling sequences to achieve more accurate prediction results. But it requires high hardware conditions and multiplied training time. Considering the spatiotemporal correlation of traffic flow and influence of external factors, we propose an Attention Based Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network considering External Factors (ABSTGCN-EF) for multi-step traffic flow prediction. This model models the traffic flow as diffusion on a digraph and extracts the spatial characteristics of traffic flow through GCN. We add meaningful time-slots attention to the encoder-decoder to form an Attention Encoder Network (AEN) to handle temporal correlation. The attention vector is used as a competitive choice to draw the correlation between predicted states and historical states. We considered the impact of three external factors (daytime, weekdays, and traffic accident markers) on the traffic flow prediction tasks. Experiments on two public data sets show that it makes sense to consider external factors. The prediction performance of our ABSTGCN-EF model achieves 7.2%–8.7% higher than the state-of-the-art baselines.展开更多
Spatio-temporal cellular network traffic prediction at wide-area level plays an important role in resource reconfiguration,traffic scheduling and intrusion detection,thus potentially supporting connected intelligence ...Spatio-temporal cellular network traffic prediction at wide-area level plays an important role in resource reconfiguration,traffic scheduling and intrusion detection,thus potentially supporting connected intelligence of the sixth generation of mobile communications technology(6G).However,the existing studies just focus on the spatio-temporal modeling of traffic data of single network service,such as short message,call,or Internet.It is not conducive to accurate prediction of traffic data,characterised by diverse network service,spatio-temporality and supersize volume.To address this issue,a novel multi-task deep learning framework is developed for citywide cellular network traffic prediction.Functionally,this framework mainly consists of a dual modular feature sharing layer and a multi-task learning layer(DMFS-MT).The former aims at mining long-term spatio-temporal dependencies and local spatio-temporal fluctuation trends in data,respectively,via a new combination of convolutional gated recurrent unit(ConvGRU)and 3-dimensional convolutional neural network(3D-CNN).For the latter,each task is performed for predicting service-specific traffic data based on a fully connected network.On the real-world Telecom Italia dataset,simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal through prediction performance measure,spatial pattern comparison and statistical distribution verification.展开更多
In the process of logistics distribution of manufacturing enterprises, the automatic scheduling method based on the algorithm model has the advantages of accurate calculation and stable operation, but it excessively r...In the process of logistics distribution of manufacturing enterprises, the automatic scheduling method based on the algorithm model has the advantages of accurate calculation and stable operation, but it excessively relies on the results of data calculation, ignores historical information and empirical data in the solving process, and has the bottleneck of low processing dimension and small processing scale. Therefore, in the digital twin(DT) system based on virtual and real fusion, a modeling and analysis method of production logistics spatio-temporal graph network model is proposed, considering the characteristics of road network topology and time-varying data. In the DT system, the temporal graph network model of the production logistics task is established and combined with the network topology, and the historical scheduling information about logistics elements is stored in the nodes. When the dynamic task arrives, a multi-stage links probability prediction method is adopted to predict the possibility of loading, driving, and other link relationships between task-related entity nodes at each stage. Several experiments are carried out, and the prediction accuracy of the digital twin-based temporal graph network(DTGN) model trained by historical scheduling information reaches 99.2% when the appropriate batch size is selected. Through logistics simulation experiments, the feasibility and the effectiveness of production logistics spatio-temporal graph network analysis methods based on historical scheduling information are verified.展开更多
Located in northern China,the Hetao Plain is an important agro-economic zone and population centre.The deterioration of local groundwater quality has had a serious impact on human health and economic development.Nowad...Located in northern China,the Hetao Plain is an important agro-economic zone and population centre.The deterioration of local groundwater quality has had a serious impact on human health and economic development.Nowadays,the groundwater vulnerability assessment(GVA)has become an essential task to identify the current status and development trend of groundwater quality.In this study,the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)and Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)models are integrated to realize the spatio-temporal prediction of regional groundwater vulnerability by introducing the Self-attention mechanism.The study firstly builds the CNN-LSTM modelwith self-attention(SA)mechanism and evaluates the prediction accuracy of the model for groundwater vulnerability compared to other common machine learning models such as Support Vector Machine(SVM),Random Forest(RF),and Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).The results indicate that the CNNLSTM model outperforms thesemodels,demonstrating its significance in groundwater vulnerability assessment.It can be posited that the predictions indicate an increased risk of groundwater vulnerability in the study area over the coming years.This increase can be attributed to the synergistic impact of global climate anomalies and intensified local human activities.Moreover,the overall groundwater vulnerability risk in the entire region has increased,evident fromboth the notably high value and standard deviation.This suggests that the spatial variability of groundwater vulnerability in the area is expected to expand in the future due to the sustained progression of climate change and human activities.The model can be optimized for diverse applications across regional environmental assessment,pollution prediction,and risk statistics.This study holds particular significance for ecological protection and groundwater resource management.展开更多
Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning mode...Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.展开更多
False data injection attack(FDIA)can affect the state estimation of the power grid by tampering with the measured value of the power grid data,and then destroying the stable operation of the smart grid.Existing work u...False data injection attack(FDIA)can affect the state estimation of the power grid by tampering with the measured value of the power grid data,and then destroying the stable operation of the smart grid.Existing work usually trains a detection model by fusing the data-driven features from diverse power data streams.Data-driven features,however,cannot effectively capture the differences between noisy data and attack samples.As a result,slight noise disturbances in the power grid may cause a large number of false detections for FDIA attacks.To address this problem,this paper designs a deep collaborative self-attention network to achieve robust FDIA detection,in which the spatio-temporal features of cascaded FDIA attacks are fully integrated.Firstly,a high-order Chebyshev polynomials-based graph convolution module is designed to effectively aggregate the spatio information between grid nodes,and the spatial self-attention mechanism is involved to dynamically assign attention weights to each node,which guides the network to pay more attention to the node information that is conducive to FDIA detection.Furthermore,the bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network is introduced to conduct time series modeling and long-term dependence analysis for power grid data and utilizes the temporal self-attention mechanism to describe the time correlation of data and assign different weights to different time steps.Our designed deep collaborative network can effectively mine subtle perturbations from spatiotemporal feature information,efficiently distinguish power grid noise from FDIA attacks,and adapt to diverse attack intensities.Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method can obtain an efficient detection performance over actual load data from New York Independent System Operator(NYISO)in IEEE 14,IEEE 39,and IEEE 118 bus systems,and outperforms state-of-the-art FDIA detection schemes in terms of detection accuracy and robustness.展开更多
Owing to the wide range of applications in various fields,generative models have become increasingly popular.However,they do not handle spatio-temporal features well.Inspired by the recent advances in these models,thi...Owing to the wide range of applications in various fields,generative models have become increasingly popular.However,they do not handle spatio-temporal features well.Inspired by the recent advances in these models,this paper designs a distributed spatio-temporal generative adversarial network(STGAN-D)that,given some initial data and random noise,generates a consecutive sequence of spatio-temporal samples which have a logical relationship.This paper builds a spatio-temporal discriminator to distinguish whether the samples generated by the generator meet the requirements for time and space coherence,and builds a controller for distributed training of the network gradient updated to separate the model training and parameter updating,to improve the network training rate.The model is trained on the skeletal dataset and the traffic dataset.In contrast to traditional generative adversarial networks(GANs),the proposed STGAN-D can generate logically coherent samples with the corresponding spatial and temporal features while avoiding mode collapse.In addition,this paper shows that the proposed model can generate different styles of spatio-temporal samples given different random noise inputs,and the controller can improve the network training rate.This model will extend the potential range of applications of GANs to areas such as traffic information simulation and multiagent adversarial simulation.展开更多
As a traditional agricultural country,China has always prioritized agricultural development,and has increasingly focused on green and sustainable agricultural development.Based on the inter-provincial panel data for C...As a traditional agricultural country,China has always prioritized agricultural development,and has increasingly focused on green and sustainable agricultural development.Based on the inter-provincial panel data for China from 1997 to 2019,this study divided these data into five periods according to the Five-Year Plan(FYP)of China,measured the agricultural eco-efficiency(AEE)values using the Super-SBM model,and then determined the spatial association network of the inter-provincial AEE of China using the improved gravity model.Finally,social network analysis(SNA)was used to further analyze the evolution process of AEE,and we de-veloped a framework of how multidimensional proximity,which includes geographical,economic,technological,cognitive,and institutional proximity,made an influence on the formation of AEE spatial relation network.The findings indicated that:1)in 1997−2019,the AEE in China was present in some spatial and temporal differences characteristics at the provincial scale,and we specifically found that national macro-regulation and policy incentives played a positive role in the long-term development of AEE.2)The spatial correlation of AEE development among provincial regions were becoming closer and exhibits obvious spatial correlation and spillover effects.The evolution of the AEE network has clearly observable trends of hierarchization and aggregation,and the complexity of the correlation network continues to increase and exhibits spatial clustering characteristics that are dense in the east and sparse in the west.The network structure has changed from monocentric radiation to a multicentric network,and network nodes select the more advantageous nodes with which to connect.3)Finally,the geographical proximity had a significant negative effect;the economic,technological,and institutional proximities were all observed to contribute to the AEE network formation,and cognitive proximity did not significantly influence this network formation.展开更多
Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and socioeconomic factors influencing the incidence of tuberculosis(TB)in the Guangdong Province between 2010 and 2019.Method Spatial and temporal variations in TB ...Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and socioeconomic factors influencing the incidence of tuberculosis(TB)in the Guangdong Province between 2010 and 2019.Method Spatial and temporal variations in TB incidence were mapped using heat maps and hierarchical clustering.Socioenvironmental influencing factors were evaluated using a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive(ST-CAR)model.Results Annual incidence of TB in Guangdong decreased from 91.85/100,000 in 2010 to 53.06/100,000in 2019.Spatial hotspots were found in northeastern Guangdong,particularly in Heyuan,Shanwei,and Shantou,while Shenzhen,Dongguan,and Foshan had the lowest rates in the Pearl River Delta.The STCAR model showed that the TB risk was lower with higher per capita Gross Domestic Product(GDP)[Relative Risk(RR),0.91;95%Confidence Interval(CI):0.86–0.98],more the ratio of licensed physicians and physician(RR,0.94;95%CI:0.90-0.98),and higher per capita public expenditure(RR,0.94;95%CI:0.90–0.97),with a marginal effect of population density(RR,0.86;95%CI:0.86–1.00).Conclusion The incidence of TB in Guangdong varies spatially and temporally.Areas with poor economic conditions and insufficient healthcare resources are at an increased risk of TB infection.Strategies focusing on equitable health resource distribution and economic development are the key to TB control.展开更多
基金This work was supported in part by the Key Program of NSFC(Grant No.U1908214)Program for Innovative Research Team in University of Liaoning Province(LT2020015)+1 种基金the Support Plan for Key Field Innovation Team of Dalian(2021RT06)the Science and Technology Innovation Fund of Dalian(Grant No.2020JJ25CY001).
文摘In recent years,human motion prediction has become an active research topic in computer vision.However,owing to the complexity and stochastic nature of human motion,it remains a challenging problem.In previous works,human motion prediction has always been treated as a typical inter-sequence problem,and most works have aimed to capture the temporal dependence between successive frames.However,although these approaches focused on the effects of the temporal dimension,they rarely considered the correlation between different joints in space.Thus,the spatio-temporal coupling of human joints is considered,to propose a novel spatio-temporal network based on a transformer and a gragh convolutional network(GCN)(STTG-Net).The temporal transformer is used to capture the global temporal dependencies,and the spatial GCN module is used to establish local spatial correlations between the joints for each frame.To overcome the problems of error accumulation and discontinuity in the motion prediction,a revision method based on fusion strategy is also proposed,in which the current prediction frame is fused with the previous frame.The experimental results show that the proposed prediction method has less prediction error and the prediction motion is smoother than previous prediction methods.The effectiveness of the proposed method is also demonstrated comparing it with the state-of-the-art method on the Human3.6 M dataset.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFB2602402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U2033215 and U2133210).
文摘As one of the core modules for air traffic flow management,Air Traffic Flow Prediction(ATFP)in the Multi-Airport System(MAS)is a prerequisite for demand and capacity balance in the complex meteorological environment.Due to the challenge of implicit interaction mechanism among traffic flow,airspace capacity and weather impact,the Weather-aware ATFP(Wa-ATFP)is still a nontrivial issue.In this paper,a novel Multi-faceted Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network(MSTGCN)is proposed to address the Wa-ATFP within the complex operations of MAS.Firstly,a spatio-temporal graph is constructed with three different nodes,including airport,route,and fix to describe the topology structure of MAS.Secondly,a weather-aware multi-faceted fusion module is proposed to integrate the feature of air traffic flow and the auxiliary features of capacity and weather,which can effectively address the complex impact of severe weather,e.g.,thunderstorms.Thirdly,to capture the latent connections of nodes,an adaptive graph connection constructor is designed.The experimental results with the real-world operational dataset in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,China,validate that the proposed approach outperforms the state-of-the-art machine-learning and deep-learning based baseline approaches in performance.
基金supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)funded by the Ministry of Education(RS-2023-00249743).
文摘This study proposes a novel forecasting framework that simultaneously captures the strong periodicity and irregular meteorological fluctuations inherent in solar radiation time series.Existing approaches typically define inter-regional correlations using either simple correlation coefficients or distance-based measures when applying spatio-temporal graph neural networks(STGNNs).However,such definitions are prone to generating spurious correlations due to the dominance of periodic structures.To address this limitation,we adopt the Elastic-Band Transform(EBT)to decompose solar radiation into periodic and amplitude-modulated components,which are then modeled independently with separate graph neural networks.The periodic component,characterized by strong nationwide correlations,is learned with a relatively simple architecture,whereas the amplitude-modulated component is modeled with more complex STGNNs that capture climatological similarities between regions.The predictions from the two components are subsequently recombined to yield final forecasts that integrate both periodic patterns and aperiodic variability.The proposed framework is validated with multiple STGNN architectures,and experimental results demonstrate improved predictive accuracy and interpretability compared to conventional methods.
基金supported byNationalNatural Science Foundation of China,GrantNo.62402046the Beijing Forestry University Science and Technology Innovation Project under Grant No.BLX202358.
文摘Long-term traffic flow prediction is a crucial component of intelligent transportation systems within intelligent networks,requiring predictive models that balance accuracy with low-latency and lightweight computation to optimize trafficmanagement and enhance urban mobility and sustainability.However,traditional predictivemodels struggle to capture long-term temporal dependencies and are computationally intensive,limiting their practicality in real-time.Moreover,many approaches overlook the periodic characteristics inherent in traffic data,further impacting performance.To address these challenges,we introduce ST-MambaGCN,a State-Space-Based Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolution Network.Unlike conventionalmodels,ST-MambaGCN replaces the temporal attention layer withMamba,a state-space model that efficiently captures long-term dependencies with near-linear computational complexity.The model combines Chebyshev polynomial-based graph convolutional networks(GCN)to explore spatial correlations.Additionally,we incorporate a multi-temporal feature capture mechanism,where the final integrated features are generated through the Hadamard product based on learnable parameters.This mechanism explicitly models shortterm,daily,and weekly traffic patterns to enhance the network’s awareness of traffic periodicity.Extensive experiments on the PeMS04 and PeMS08 datasets demonstrate that ST-MambaGCN significantly outperforms existing benchmarks,offering substantial improvements in both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency for long-term traffic flow prediction.
文摘The ability to accurately predict urban traffic flows is crucial for optimising city operations.Consequently,various methods for forecasting urban traffic have been developed,focusing on analysing historical data to understand complex mobility patterns.Deep learning techniques,such as graph neural networks(GNNs),are popular for their ability to capture spatio-temporal dependencies.However,these models often become overly complex due to the large number of hyper-parameters involved.In this study,we introduce Dynamic Multi-Graph Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equation Networks(DMST-GNODE),a framework based on ordinary differential equations(ODEs)that autonomously discovers effective spatial-temporal graph neural network(STGNN)architectures for traffic prediction tasks.The comparative analysis of DMST-GNODE and baseline models indicates that DMST-GNODE model demonstrates superior performance across multiple datasets,consistently achieving the lowest Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)values,alongside the highest accuracy.On the BKK(Bangkok)dataset,it outperformed other models with an RMSE of 3.3165 and an accuracy of 0.9367 for a 20-min interval,maintaining this trend across 40 and 60 min.Similarly,on the PeMS08 dataset,DMST-GNODE achieved the best performance with an RMSE of 19.4863 and an accuracy of 0.9377 at 20 min,demonstrating its effectiveness over longer periods.The Los_Loop dataset results further emphasise this model’s advantage,with an RMSE of 3.3422 and an accuracy of 0.7643 at 20 min,consistently maintaining superiority across all time intervals.These numerical highlights indicate that DMST-GNODE not only outperforms baseline models but also achieves higher accuracy and lower errors across different time intervals and datasets.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.22479092 and 22078190)。
文摘The pseudo-two-dimensional(P2D)model plays an important role in exploring physicochemical mechanisms,predicting the state of health,and improving the fast charge capability for Li-ion batteries(LIBs).However,the fast charge leads to the lithium concentration gradient in the solid and electrolyte phases and the non-uniform electrochemical reaction at the solid/electrolyte interface.In order to decouple charge transfer reactions in LIBs under dynamic conditions,understanding the spatio-temporal resolution of the P2D model is urgently required.Till now,the study of this aspect is still insufficient.This work studies the spatio-temporal resolution for dynamic/static electrochemical impedance spectroscopy(DEIS/SEIS)on multiple scales.In detail,DEIS and SEIS with spatio-temporal resolutions are used to decouple charge transfer reactions in LIBs based on the numerical solution of the P2D model in the frequency domain.The calculated results indicate that decoupling solid diffusion requires a high spatial resolution along the r-direction in particles,decoupling electrolyte diffusion and interfacial transfer reaction requires a high spatial resolution along the x-direction,and decoupling charge transfer reactions in LIBs at an extremely low state of charge(SOC)requires an extremely high temporal resolution along the t-direction.Finally,the optimal range of spatio-temporal resolutions for DEIS/SEIS is derived,and the method to decouple charge transfer reactions with spatio-temporal resolutions is developed.
基金supported by The Henan Province Science and Technology Research Project(242102211046)the Key Scientific Research Project of Higher Education Institutions in Henan Province(25A520039)+1 种基金theNatural Science Foundation project of Zhongyuan Institute of Technology(K2025YB011)the Zhongyuan University of Technology Graduate Education and Teaching Reform Research Project(JG202424).
文摘Electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis is critical for detecting arrhythmias, but traditional methods struggle with large-scale Electrocardiogram data and rare arrhythmia events in imbalanced datasets. These methods fail to perform multi-perspective learning of temporal signals and Electrocardiogram images, nor can they fully extract the latent information within the data, falling short of the accuracy required by clinicians. Therefore, this paper proposes an innovative hybrid multimodal spatiotemporal neural network to address these challenges. The model employs a multimodal data augmentation framework integrating visual and signal-based features to enhance the classification performance of rare arrhythmias in imbalanced datasets. Additionally, the spatiotemporal fusion module incorporates a spatiotemporal graph convolutional network to jointly model temporal and spatial features, uncovering complex dependencies within the Electrocardiogram data and improving the model’s ability to represent complex patterns. In experiments conducted on the MIT-BIH arrhythmia dataset, the model achieved 99.95% accuracy, 99.80% recall, and a 99.78% F1 score. The model was further validated for generalization using the clinical INCART arrhythmia dataset, and the results demonstrated its effectiveness in terms of both generalization and robustness.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42161006Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects No.202201AT070094,No.202301BF070001-004+1 种基金Special Project for High-level Talents of Yunnan Province for Young Top Talents,No.C6213001159European Research Council(ERC)Starting-Grant STORIES,No.101040939。
文摘Due to water conflicts and allocation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),the spatio-temporal differentiation of total water resources and the natural-human influence need to be clarified.This work investigated LMRB's terrestrial water storage anomaly(TWSA)and its spatio-temporal dynamics during 2002–2020.Considering the effects of natural factors and human activities,the respective contributions of climate variability and human activities to terrestrial water storage change(TWSC)were separated.Results showed that:(1)LMRB's TWSA decreased by 0.3158 cm/a.(2)TWSA showed a gradual increase in distribution from southwest of MRB to middle LMRB and from northeast of LRB to middle LMRB.TWSA positively changed in Myanmar while slightly changed in Laos and China.It negatively changed in Vietnam,Thailand and Cambodia.(3)TWSA components decreased in a descending order of soil moisture,groundwater and precipitation.(4)Natural factors had a substantial and spatial differentiated influence on TWSA over the LMRB.(5)Climate variability contributed 79%of TWSC in the LMRB while human activities contributed 21%with an increasing impact after 2008.The TWSC of upstream basin countries was found to be controlled by climate variability while Vietnam and Cambodia's TWSC has been controlled by human activities since 2012.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61672070, 61501007, 11675199, 61572004 and 81501155)the Key Project of Beijing Municipal Education Commission (No. KZ201910005008)+3 种基金general project of science and technology project of Beijing Municipal Education Commission (No. KM201610005023)the Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation (No. 4182005)Clinical Technology Innovation Program of Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals (No. XMLX201805)Beijing Municipal Science & Tech Commission (No. Z171100000117004)
文摘Source localization of focal electrical activity from scalp electroencephalogram (sEEG) signal is generally modeled as an inverse problem that is highly ill-posed. In this paper, a novel source localization method is proposed to model the EEG inverse problem using spatio-temporal long-short term memory recurrent neural networks (LSTM). The network model consists of two parts, sEEG encoding and source decoding, to model the sEEG signal and receive the regression of source location. As there does not exist enough annotated sEEG signals correspond to specific source locations, simulated data is generated with forward model using finite element method (FEM) to act as a part of training signals. A framework for source localization is proposed to estimate the source position based on simulated training data. Experiments are done on simulated testing data. The results on simulated data exhibit good robustness on noise signal, and the proposed network solves the EEG inverse problem with spatio-temporal deep network. The result show that the proposed method overcomes the highly ill-posed linear inverse problem with data driven learning.
基金Under the auspices of National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (No.2007AA12Z242)
文摘The technique of incremental updating,which can better guarantee the real-time situation of navigational map,is the developing orientation of navigational road network updating.The data center of vehicle navigation system is in charge of storing incremental data,and the spatio-temporal data model for storing incremental data does affect the efficiency of the response of the data center to the requirements of incremental data from the vehicle terminal.According to the analysis on the shortcomings of several typical spatio-temporal data models used in the data center and based on the base map with overlay model,the reverse map with overlay model (RMOM) was put forward for the data center to make rapid response to incremental data request.RMOM supports the data center to store not only the current complete road network data,but also the overlays of incremental data from the time when each road network changed to the current moment.Moreover,the storage mechanism and index structure of the incremental data were designed,and the implementation algorithm of RMOM was developed.Taking navigational road network in Guangzhou City as an example,the simulation test was conducted to validate the efficiency of RMOM.Results show that the navigation database in the data center can response to the requirements of incremental data by only one query with RMOM,and costs less time.Compared with the base map with overlay model,the data center does not need to temporarily overlay incremental data with RMOM,so time-consuming of response is significantly reduced.RMOM greatly improves the efficiency of response and provides strong support for the real-time situation of navigational road network.
基金supported by the Nation Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)under Grant No.61462042 and No.61966018.
文摘Traffic flow prediction is an important part of the intelligent transportation system. Accurate multi-step traffic flow prediction plays an important role in improving the operational efficiency of the traffic network. Since traffic flow data has complex spatio-temporal correlation and non-linearity, existing prediction methods are mainly accomplished through a combination of a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) and a recurrent neural network. The combination strategy has an excellent performance in traffic prediction tasks. However, multi-step prediction error accumulates with the predicted step size. Some scholars use multiple sampling sequences to achieve more accurate prediction results. But it requires high hardware conditions and multiplied training time. Considering the spatiotemporal correlation of traffic flow and influence of external factors, we propose an Attention Based Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network considering External Factors (ABSTGCN-EF) for multi-step traffic flow prediction. This model models the traffic flow as diffusion on a digraph and extracts the spatial characteristics of traffic flow through GCN. We add meaningful time-slots attention to the encoder-decoder to form an Attention Encoder Network (AEN) to handle temporal correlation. The attention vector is used as a competitive choice to draw the correlation between predicted states and historical states. We considered the impact of three external factors (daytime, weekdays, and traffic accident markers) on the traffic flow prediction tasks. Experiments on two public data sets show that it makes sense to consider external factors. The prediction performance of our ABSTGCN-EF model achieves 7.2%–8.7% higher than the state-of-the-art baselines.
基金supported in part by the Science and Technology Project of Hebei Education Department(No.ZD2021088)in part by the S&T Major Project of the Science and Technology Ministry of China(No.2017YFE0135700)。
文摘Spatio-temporal cellular network traffic prediction at wide-area level plays an important role in resource reconfiguration,traffic scheduling and intrusion detection,thus potentially supporting connected intelligence of the sixth generation of mobile communications technology(6G).However,the existing studies just focus on the spatio-temporal modeling of traffic data of single network service,such as short message,call,or Internet.It is not conducive to accurate prediction of traffic data,characterised by diverse network service,spatio-temporality and supersize volume.To address this issue,a novel multi-task deep learning framework is developed for citywide cellular network traffic prediction.Functionally,this framework mainly consists of a dual modular feature sharing layer and a multi-task learning layer(DMFS-MT).The former aims at mining long-term spatio-temporal dependencies and local spatio-temporal fluctuation trends in data,respectively,via a new combination of convolutional gated recurrent unit(ConvGRU)and 3-dimensional convolutional neural network(3D-CNN).For the latter,each task is performed for predicting service-specific traffic data based on a fully connected network.On the real-world Telecom Italia dataset,simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal through prediction performance measure,spatial pattern comparison and statistical distribution verification.
基金National Key Research and Development Plan of China (No.2019YFB1706300)Shanghai Frontier Science Research Center for Modern Textiles (Donghua University),China。
文摘In the process of logistics distribution of manufacturing enterprises, the automatic scheduling method based on the algorithm model has the advantages of accurate calculation and stable operation, but it excessively relies on the results of data calculation, ignores historical information and empirical data in the solving process, and has the bottleneck of low processing dimension and small processing scale. Therefore, in the digital twin(DT) system based on virtual and real fusion, a modeling and analysis method of production logistics spatio-temporal graph network model is proposed, considering the characteristics of road network topology and time-varying data. In the DT system, the temporal graph network model of the production logistics task is established and combined with the network topology, and the historical scheduling information about logistics elements is stored in the nodes. When the dynamic task arrives, a multi-stage links probability prediction method is adopted to predict the possibility of loading, driving, and other link relationships between task-related entity nodes at each stage. Several experiments are carried out, and the prediction accuracy of the digital twin-based temporal graph network(DTGN) model trained by historical scheduling information reaches 99.2% when the appropriate batch size is selected. Through logistics simulation experiments, the feasibility and the effectiveness of production logistics spatio-temporal graph network analysis methods based on historical scheduling information are verified.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2021YFA0715900).
文摘Located in northern China,the Hetao Plain is an important agro-economic zone and population centre.The deterioration of local groundwater quality has had a serious impact on human health and economic development.Nowadays,the groundwater vulnerability assessment(GVA)has become an essential task to identify the current status and development trend of groundwater quality.In this study,the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)and Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)models are integrated to realize the spatio-temporal prediction of regional groundwater vulnerability by introducing the Self-attention mechanism.The study firstly builds the CNN-LSTM modelwith self-attention(SA)mechanism and evaluates the prediction accuracy of the model for groundwater vulnerability compared to other common machine learning models such as Support Vector Machine(SVM),Random Forest(RF),and Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).The results indicate that the CNNLSTM model outperforms thesemodels,demonstrating its significance in groundwater vulnerability assessment.It can be posited that the predictions indicate an increased risk of groundwater vulnerability in the study area over the coming years.This increase can be attributed to the synergistic impact of global climate anomalies and intensified local human activities.Moreover,the overall groundwater vulnerability risk in the entire region has increased,evident fromboth the notably high value and standard deviation.This suggests that the spatial variability of groundwater vulnerability in the area is expected to expand in the future due to the sustained progression of climate change and human activities.The model can be optimized for diverse applications across regional environmental assessment,pollution prediction,and risk statistics.This study holds particular significance for ecological protection and groundwater resource management.
基金Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS,Grant/Award Number:2021103Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Grant/Award Number:XDC02060500。
文摘Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.
基金supported in part by the Research Fund of Guangxi Key Lab of Multi-Source Information Mining&Security(MIMS21-M-02).
文摘False data injection attack(FDIA)can affect the state estimation of the power grid by tampering with the measured value of the power grid data,and then destroying the stable operation of the smart grid.Existing work usually trains a detection model by fusing the data-driven features from diverse power data streams.Data-driven features,however,cannot effectively capture the differences between noisy data and attack samples.As a result,slight noise disturbances in the power grid may cause a large number of false detections for FDIA attacks.To address this problem,this paper designs a deep collaborative self-attention network to achieve robust FDIA detection,in which the spatio-temporal features of cascaded FDIA attacks are fully integrated.Firstly,a high-order Chebyshev polynomials-based graph convolution module is designed to effectively aggregate the spatio information between grid nodes,and the spatial self-attention mechanism is involved to dynamically assign attention weights to each node,which guides the network to pay more attention to the node information that is conducive to FDIA detection.Furthermore,the bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network is introduced to conduct time series modeling and long-term dependence analysis for power grid data and utilizes the temporal self-attention mechanism to describe the time correlation of data and assign different weights to different time steps.Our designed deep collaborative network can effectively mine subtle perturbations from spatiotemporal feature information,efficiently distinguish power grid noise from FDIA attacks,and adapt to diverse attack intensities.Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method can obtain an efficient detection performance over actual load data from New York Independent System Operator(NYISO)in IEEE 14,IEEE 39,and IEEE 118 bus systems,and outperforms state-of-the-art FDIA detection schemes in terms of detection accuracy and robustness.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61573285).
文摘Owing to the wide range of applications in various fields,generative models have become increasingly popular.However,they do not handle spatio-temporal features well.Inspired by the recent advances in these models,this paper designs a distributed spatio-temporal generative adversarial network(STGAN-D)that,given some initial data and random noise,generates a consecutive sequence of spatio-temporal samples which have a logical relationship.This paper builds a spatio-temporal discriminator to distinguish whether the samples generated by the generator meet the requirements for time and space coherence,and builds a controller for distributed training of the network gradient updated to separate the model training and parameter updating,to improve the network training rate.The model is trained on the skeletal dataset and the traffic dataset.In contrast to traditional generative adversarial networks(GANs),the proposed STGAN-D can generate logically coherent samples with the corresponding spatial and temporal features while avoiding mode collapse.In addition,this paper shows that the proposed model can generate different styles of spatio-temporal samples given different random noise inputs,and the controller can improve the network training rate.This model will extend the potential range of applications of GANs to areas such as traffic information simulation and multiagent adversarial simulation.
基金Under the auspices of National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFD 1100104)Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province(No.2108085-MD29)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41571400)。
文摘As a traditional agricultural country,China has always prioritized agricultural development,and has increasingly focused on green and sustainable agricultural development.Based on the inter-provincial panel data for China from 1997 to 2019,this study divided these data into five periods according to the Five-Year Plan(FYP)of China,measured the agricultural eco-efficiency(AEE)values using the Super-SBM model,and then determined the spatial association network of the inter-provincial AEE of China using the improved gravity model.Finally,social network analysis(SNA)was used to further analyze the evolution process of AEE,and we de-veloped a framework of how multidimensional proximity,which includes geographical,economic,technological,cognitive,and institutional proximity,made an influence on the formation of AEE spatial relation network.The findings indicated that:1)in 1997−2019,the AEE in China was present in some spatial and temporal differences characteristics at the provincial scale,and we specifically found that national macro-regulation and policy incentives played a positive role in the long-term development of AEE.2)The spatial correlation of AEE development among provincial regions were becoming closer and exhibits obvious spatial correlation and spillover effects.The evolution of the AEE network has clearly observable trends of hierarchization and aggregation,and the complexity of the correlation network continues to increase and exhibits spatial clustering characteristics that are dense in the east and sparse in the west.The network structure has changed from monocentric radiation to a multicentric network,and network nodes select the more advantageous nodes with which to connect.3)Finally,the geographical proximity had a significant negative effect;the economic,technological,and institutional proximities were all observed to contribute to the AEE network formation,and cognitive proximity did not significantly influence this network formation.
基金supported by the Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Tuberculosis(No.2020B1111170014)。
文摘Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and socioeconomic factors influencing the incidence of tuberculosis(TB)in the Guangdong Province between 2010 and 2019.Method Spatial and temporal variations in TB incidence were mapped using heat maps and hierarchical clustering.Socioenvironmental influencing factors were evaluated using a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive(ST-CAR)model.Results Annual incidence of TB in Guangdong decreased from 91.85/100,000 in 2010 to 53.06/100,000in 2019.Spatial hotspots were found in northeastern Guangdong,particularly in Heyuan,Shanwei,and Shantou,while Shenzhen,Dongguan,and Foshan had the lowest rates in the Pearl River Delta.The STCAR model showed that the TB risk was lower with higher per capita Gross Domestic Product(GDP)[Relative Risk(RR),0.91;95%Confidence Interval(CI):0.86–0.98],more the ratio of licensed physicians and physician(RR,0.94;95%CI:0.90-0.98),and higher per capita public expenditure(RR,0.94;95%CI:0.90–0.97),with a marginal effect of population density(RR,0.86;95%CI:0.86–1.00).Conclusion The incidence of TB in Guangdong varies spatially and temporally.Areas with poor economic conditions and insufficient healthcare resources are at an increased risk of TB infection.Strategies focusing on equitable health resource distribution and economic development are the key to TB control.
