Spatio-temporal forecasting is critical in the traffic domain,where accurate predictions are essential for effective urban traffic management,planning,and simulation.Despite the importance of complete historical obser...Spatio-temporal forecasting is critical in the traffic domain,where accurate predictions are essential for effective urban traffic management,planning,and simulation.Despite the importance of complete historical observations,missing values due to sensor failures,data transmission errors,and other issues are common,posing significant challenges to the accuracy and reliability of forecasting models.Existing methods often fail to systematically account for incomplete historical data,especially non-random data missing for extended periods.Fortunately,this study introduces the MissNet,a pre-training enhanced framework for spatio-temporal data forecasting in the presence of missing historical data.MissNet consists of a two-stage process:a pre-training stage where a data masking and recovering task is used to pre-train a backbone,and a finetuning stage where the pre-trained backbone,combined with a specially designed header,predicts future data incorporating spatio-temporal metadata as auxiliary information.Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of MissNet in achieving stable and accurate predictions under various missing data scenarios.展开更多
Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed...Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed among forecast results produced by different ensemble members when applied to South China.To enhance the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region,it is essential to develop new methods that can effectively leverage multiple predictive models.This study introduces a weighted ensemble forecasting method based on online learning to improve forecast accuracy.We utilized ensemble forecasts from three models:the Integrated Forecasting System model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,the Climate Forecast System Version 2 model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction,and the Beijing Climate Center-Climate Prediction System version 3 model from the China Meteorological Administration.The ensemble weights are trained using an online learning approach.The results indicate that the forecasts obtained through online learning outperform those of the original dynamical models.Compared to the simple ensemble results of the three models,the weighted ensemble model showed a stronger capability to capture temperature and precipitation patterns in South China.Therefore,this method has the potential to improve the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region.展开更多
Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware los...Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware loss function is proposed for accurate multistep wind speed forecasting.In this model,the wind speed data is first denoised using the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform.Next,an encoder-decoder network based on a temporal convolutional network,bidirectional gated recurrent unit,and multihead self-attention is employed for forecasting.Additionally,to enhance the ability of the model to identify temporal dynamics,a shape-aware loss function,ITILDE-Q,is employed in the model.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model,a comparative experiment and an ablation experiment were conducted using three datasets of measured wind speeds.Three error metrics and a similarity metric were adopted for comprehensive evaluation.The experimental results showed that the proposed model consistently outperforms benchmark models in all tested forecasting scenarios,with particularly pronounced differences in performance over longer forecast horizons.Furthermore,the synergistic interaction of the three key components contributes to the extraordinary performance of the proposed model.展开更多
The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and na...The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and navigation systems.Consequently,accurately predicting the intensity of the SC holds great significance,but predicting the SC involves a long-term time series,and many existing time series forecasting methods have fallen short in terms of accuracy and efficiency.The Time-series Dense Encoder model is a deep learning solution tailored for long time series prediction.Based on a multi-layer perceptron structure,it outperforms the best previously existing models in accuracy,while being efficiently trainable on general datasets.We propose a method based on this model for SC forecasting.Using a trained model,we predict the test set from SC 19 to SC 25 with an average mean absolute percentage error of 32.02,root mean square error of 30.3,mean absolute error of 23.32,and R^(2)(coefficient of determination)of 0.76,outperforming other deep learning models in terms of accuracy and training efficiency on sunspot number datasets.Subsequently,we use it to predict the peaks of SC 25 and SC 26.For SC 25,the peak time has ended,but a stronger peak is predicted for SC 26,of 199.3,within a range of 170.8-221.9,projected to occur during April 2034.展开更多
The pseudo-two-dimensional(P2D)model plays an important role in exploring physicochemical mechanisms,predicting the state of health,and improving the fast charge capability for Li-ion batteries(LIBs).However,the fast ...The pseudo-two-dimensional(P2D)model plays an important role in exploring physicochemical mechanisms,predicting the state of health,and improving the fast charge capability for Li-ion batteries(LIBs).However,the fast charge leads to the lithium concentration gradient in the solid and electrolyte phases and the non-uniform electrochemical reaction at the solid/electrolyte interface.In order to decouple charge transfer reactions in LIBs under dynamic conditions,understanding the spatio-temporal resolution of the P2D model is urgently required.Till now,the study of this aspect is still insufficient.This work studies the spatio-temporal resolution for dynamic/static electrochemical impedance spectroscopy(DEIS/SEIS)on multiple scales.In detail,DEIS and SEIS with spatio-temporal resolutions are used to decouple charge transfer reactions in LIBs based on the numerical solution of the P2D model in the frequency domain.The calculated results indicate that decoupling solid diffusion requires a high spatial resolution along the r-direction in particles,decoupling electrolyte diffusion and interfacial transfer reaction requires a high spatial resolution along the x-direction,and decoupling charge transfer reactions in LIBs at an extremely low state of charge(SOC)requires an extremely high temporal resolution along the t-direction.Finally,the optimal range of spatio-temporal resolutions for DEIS/SEIS is derived,and the method to decouple charge transfer reactions with spatio-temporal resolutions is developed.展开更多
Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning ...Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods,accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved.This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines(SVM),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),Random Forest(RF),and Gradient Boosting(GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul(EXIST).All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split,with hyperparameters tuned via 5-fold cross-validation on the training set.XGBoost achieved the best performance(Mean Absolute Error(MAE)=144.8 TRY/MWh,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)=201.8 TRY/MWh,coefficient of determination(R^(2))=0.923)while training in 94 s.To enhance interpretability and identify key drivers,we employed Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),which highlighted a strong association between higher prices and increased natural-gas-based generation.The results provide a clear performance benchmark and practical guidance for selecting forecasting approaches in day-ahead electricity markets.展开更多
With the rapid proliferation of electric vehicles,their charging loads pose new challenges to power grid stability and operational efficiency.To address this,this study employs a Monte Carlo simulation model to analyz...With the rapid proliferation of electric vehicles,their charging loads pose new challenges to power grid stability and operational efficiency.To address this,this study employs a Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze the charging load characteristics of six battery electric vehicle categories in Hebei Province,leveraging multi-source probabilistic distribution data under typical operational scenarios.The findings reveal that electric vehicle charging loads are primarily concentrated during midday and nighttime periods,with significant load fluctuations exerting substantial pressure on the grid.In response,this paper proposes strategic interventions including optimized charging infrastructure planning,time-of-use electricity pricing mechanisms,and smart charging technologies to balance grid loads.The results provide a theoretical foundation for electric vehicle load forecasting,smart grid dispatching,and vehicle-grid integration,thereby enhancing grid operational efficiency and sustainability.展开更多
Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep...Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep learning to medium-range regional weather forecasting with limited data remains a significant challenge.In this work,three key solutions are proposed:(1)motivated by the need to improve model performance in data-scarce regional forecasting scenarios,the authors innovatively apply semantic segmentation models,to better capture spatiotemporal features and improve prediction accuracy;(2)recognizing the challenge of overfitting and the inability of traditional noise-based data augmentation methods to effectively enhance model robustness,a novel learnable Gaussian noise mechanism is introduced that allows the model to adaptively optimize perturbations for different locations,ensuring more effective learning;and(3)to address the issue of error accumulation in autoregressive prediction,as well as the challenge of learning difficulty and the lack of intermediate data utilization in one-shot prediction,the authors propose a cascade prediction approach that effectively resolves these problems while significantly improving model forecasting performance.The method achieves a competitive result in The East China Regional AI Medium Range Weather Forecasting Competition.Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each component,highlighting their contributions to enhancing prediction performance.展开更多
This study proposes a novel forecasting framework that simultaneously captures the strong periodicity and irregular meteorological fluctuations inherent in solar radiation time series.Existing approaches typically def...This study proposes a novel forecasting framework that simultaneously captures the strong periodicity and irregular meteorological fluctuations inherent in solar radiation time series.Existing approaches typically define inter-regional correlations using either simple correlation coefficients or distance-based measures when applying spatio-temporal graph neural networks(STGNNs).However,such definitions are prone to generating spurious correlations due to the dominance of periodic structures.To address this limitation,we adopt the Elastic-Band Transform(EBT)to decompose solar radiation into periodic and amplitude-modulated components,which are then modeled independently with separate graph neural networks.The periodic component,characterized by strong nationwide correlations,is learned with a relatively simple architecture,whereas the amplitude-modulated component is modeled with more complex STGNNs that capture climatological similarities between regions.The predictions from the two components are subsequently recombined to yield final forecasts that integrate both periodic patterns and aperiodic variability.The proposed framework is validated with multiple STGNN architectures,and experimental results demonstrate improved predictive accuracy and interpretability compared to conventional methods.展开更多
Sustainable energy systems will entail a change in the carbon intensity projections,which should be carried out in a proper manner to facilitate the smooth running of the grid and reduce greenhouse emissions.The prese...Sustainable energy systems will entail a change in the carbon intensity projections,which should be carried out in a proper manner to facilitate the smooth running of the grid and reduce greenhouse emissions.The present article outlines the TransCarbonNet,a novel hybrid deep learning framework with self-attention characteristics added to the bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(Bi-LSTM)network to forecast the carbon intensity of the grid several days.The proposed temporal fusion model not only learns the local temporal interactions but also the long-term patterns of the carbon emission data;hence,it is able to give suitable forecasts over a period of seven days.TransCarbonNet takes advantage of a multi-head self-attention element to identify significant temporal connections,which means the Bi-LSTM element calculates sequential dependencies in both directions.Massive tests on two actual data sets indicate much improved results in comparison with the existing results,with mean relative errors of 15.3 percent and 12.7 percent,respectively.The framework has given explicable weights of attention that reveal critical periods that influence carbon intensity alterations,and informed decisions on the management of carbon sustainability.The effectiveness of the proposed solution has been validated in numerous cases of operations,and TransCarbonNet is established to be an effective tool when it comes to carbon-friendly optimization of the grid.展开更多
Predicting the behavior of renewable energy systems requires models capable of generating accurate forecasts from limited historical data,a challenge that becomes especially pronounced when commissioning new facil-iti...Predicting the behavior of renewable energy systems requires models capable of generating accurate forecasts from limited historical data,a challenge that becomes especially pronounced when commissioning new facil-ities where operational records are scarce.This review aims to synthesize recent progress in data-efficient deep learning approaches for addressing such“cold-start”forecasting problems.It primarily covers three interrelated domains—solar photovoltaic(PV),wind power,and electrical load forecasting—where data scarcity and operational variability are most critical,while also including representative studies on hydropower and carbon emission prediction to provide a broader systems perspective.To this end,we examined trends from over 150 predominantly peer-reviewed studies published between 2019 and mid-2025,highlighting advances in zero-shot and few-shot meta-learning frameworks that enable rapid model adaptation with minimal labeled data.Moreover,transfer learning approaches combined with spatiotemporal graph neural networks have been employed to transfer knowledge from existing energy assets to new,data-sparse environments,effectively capturing hidden dependencies among geographic features,meteorological dynamics,and grid structures.Synthetic data generation has further proven valuable for expanding training samples and mitigating overfitting in cold-start scenarios.In addition,large language models and explainable artificial intelligence(XAI)—notably conversational XAI systems—have been used to interpret and communicate complex model behaviors in accessible terms,fostering operator trust from the earliest deployment stages.By consolidating methodological advances,unresolved challenges,and open-source resources,this review provides a coherent overview of deep learning strategies that can shorten the data-sparse ramp-up period of new energy infrastructures and accelerate the transition toward resilient,low-carbon electricity grids.展开更多
In this paper, we propose a deep spatio-temporal forecasting model (DeepSTF) for multi-site weather prediction post-processing by using both temporal andspatial information. In our proposed framework, the spatio-tempo...In this paper, we propose a deep spatio-temporal forecasting model (DeepSTF) for multi-site weather prediction post-processing by using both temporal andspatial information. In our proposed framework, the spatio-temporal information ismodeled by a CNN (convolutional neural network) module and an encoder-decoderstructure with the attention mechanism. The novelty of our work lies in that our modeltakes full account of temporal and spatial characteristics and obtain forecasts of multiple meteorological stations simultaneously by using the same framework. We applythe DeepSTF model to short-term weather prediction at 226 meteorological stations inBeijing. It significantly improves the short-term forecasts compared to other widelyused benchmark models including the Model Output Statistics method. In order toevaluate the uncertainty of the model parameters, we estimate the confidence intervals by bootstrapping. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the DeepSTFmodel has strong stability. Finally, we evaluate the impact of seasonal changes and topographical differences on the accuracy of the model predictions. The results indicatethat our proposed model has high prediction accuracy.展开更多
Scene perception and trajectory forecasting are two fundamental challenges that are crucial to a safe and reliable autonomous driving(AD)system.However,most proposed methods aim at addressing one of the two challenges...Scene perception and trajectory forecasting are two fundamental challenges that are crucial to a safe and reliable autonomous driving(AD)system.However,most proposed methods aim at addressing one of the two challenges mentioned above with a single model.To tackle this dilemma,this paper proposes spatio-temporal semantics and interaction graph aggregation for multi-agent perception and trajectory forecasting(STSIGMA),an efficient end-to-end method to jointly and accurately perceive the AD environment and forecast the trajectories of the surrounding traffic agents within a unified framework.ST-SIGMA adopts a trident encoder-decoder architecture to learn scene semantics and agent interaction information on bird’s-eye view(BEV)maps simultaneously.Specifically,an iterative aggregation network is first employed as the scene semantic encoder(SSE)to learn diverse scene information.To preserve dynamic interactions of traffic agents,ST-SIGMA further exploits a spatio-temporal graph network as the graph interaction encoder.Meanwhile,a simple yet efficient feature fusion method to fuse semantic and interaction features into a unified feature space as the input to a novel hierarchical aggregation decoder for downstream prediction tasks is designed.Extensive experiments on the nuScenes data set have demonstrated that the proposed ST-SIGMA achieves significant improvements compared to the state-of-theart(SOTA)methods in terms of scene perception and trajectory forecasting,respectively.Therefore,the proposed approach outperforms SOTA in terms of model generalisation and robustness and is therefore more feasible for deployment in realworld AD scenarios.展开更多
Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning mode...Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.展开更多
Due to water conflicts and allocation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),the spatio-temporal differentiation of total water resources and the natural-human influence need to be clarified.This work investigated LM...Due to water conflicts and allocation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),the spatio-temporal differentiation of total water resources and the natural-human influence need to be clarified.This work investigated LMRB's terrestrial water storage anomaly(TWSA)and its spatio-temporal dynamics during 2002–2020.Considering the effects of natural factors and human activities,the respective contributions of climate variability and human activities to terrestrial water storage change(TWSC)were separated.Results showed that:(1)LMRB's TWSA decreased by 0.3158 cm/a.(2)TWSA showed a gradual increase in distribution from southwest of MRB to middle LMRB and from northeast of LRB to middle LMRB.TWSA positively changed in Myanmar while slightly changed in Laos and China.It negatively changed in Vietnam,Thailand and Cambodia.(3)TWSA components decreased in a descending order of soil moisture,groundwater and precipitation.(4)Natural factors had a substantial and spatial differentiated influence on TWSA over the LMRB.(5)Climate variability contributed 79%of TWSC in the LMRB while human activities contributed 21%with an increasing impact after 2008.The TWSC of upstream basin countries was found to be controlled by climate variability while Vietnam and Cambodia's TWSC has been controlled by human activities since 2012.展开更多
The ability to accurately predict urban traffic flows is crucial for optimising city operations.Consequently,various methods for forecasting urban traffic have been developed,focusing on analysing historical data to u...The ability to accurately predict urban traffic flows is crucial for optimising city operations.Consequently,various methods for forecasting urban traffic have been developed,focusing on analysing historical data to understand complex mobility patterns.Deep learning techniques,such as graph neural networks(GNNs),are popular for their ability to capture spatio-temporal dependencies.However,these models often become overly complex due to the large number of hyper-parameters involved.In this study,we introduce Dynamic Multi-Graph Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equation Networks(DMST-GNODE),a framework based on ordinary differential equations(ODEs)that autonomously discovers effective spatial-temporal graph neural network(STGNN)architectures for traffic prediction tasks.The comparative analysis of DMST-GNODE and baseline models indicates that DMST-GNODE model demonstrates superior performance across multiple datasets,consistently achieving the lowest Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)values,alongside the highest accuracy.On the BKK(Bangkok)dataset,it outperformed other models with an RMSE of 3.3165 and an accuracy of 0.9367 for a 20-min interval,maintaining this trend across 40 and 60 min.Similarly,on the PeMS08 dataset,DMST-GNODE achieved the best performance with an RMSE of 19.4863 and an accuracy of 0.9377 at 20 min,demonstrating its effectiveness over longer periods.The Los_Loop dataset results further emphasise this model’s advantage,with an RMSE of 3.3422 and an accuracy of 0.7643 at 20 min,consistently maintaining superiority across all time intervals.These numerical highlights indicate that DMST-GNODE not only outperforms baseline models but also achieves higher accuracy and lower errors across different time intervals and datasets.展开更多
Forecasting landslide deformation is challenging due to influence of various internal and external factors on the occurrence of systemic and localized heterogeneities.Despite the potential to improve landslide predict...Forecasting landslide deformation is challenging due to influence of various internal and external factors on the occurrence of systemic and localized heterogeneities.Despite the potential to improve landslide predictability,deep learning has yet to be sufficiently explored for complex deformation patterns associated with landslides and is inherently opaque.Herein,we developed a holistic landslide deformation forecasting method that considers spatiotemporal correlations of landslide deformation by integrating domain knowledge into interpretable deep learning.By spatially capturing the interconnections between multiple deformations from different observation points,our method contributes to the understanding and forecasting of landslide systematic behavior.By integrating specific domain knowledge relevant to each observation point and merging internal properties with external variables,the local heterogeneity is considered in our method,identifying deformation temporal patterns in different landslide zones.Case studies involving reservoir-induced landslides and creeping landslides demonstrated that our approach(1)enhances the accuracy of landslide deformation forecasting,(2)identifies significant contributing factors and their influence on spatiotemporal deformation characteristics,and(3)demonstrates how identifying these factors and patterns facilitates landslide forecasting.Our research offers a promising and pragmatic pathway toward a deeper understanding and forecasting of complex landslide behaviors.展开更多
Photovoltaic(PV)power forecasting is essential for balancing energy supply and demand in renewable energy systems.However,the performance of PV panels varies across different technologies due to differences in efficie...Photovoltaic(PV)power forecasting is essential for balancing energy supply and demand in renewable energy systems.However,the performance of PV panels varies across different technologies due to differences in efficiency and how they process solar radiation.This study evaluates the effectiveness of deep learning models in predicting PV power generation for three panel technologies:Hybrid-Si,Mono-Si,and Poly-Si,across three forecasting horizons:1-step,12-step,and 24-step.Among the tested models,the Convolutional Neural Network—Long Short-Term Memory(CNN-LSTM)architecture exhibited superior performance,particularly for the 24-step horizon,achieving R^(2)=0.9793 and MAE 0.0162 for the Poly-Si array,followed by Mono-Si(R^(2)=0.9768)and Hybrid-Si arrays(R^(2)=0.9769).These findings demonstrate that the CNN-LSTM model can provide accurate and reliable PV power predictions for all studied technologies.By identifying the most suitable predictive model for each panel technology,this study contributes to optimizing PV power forecasting and improving energy management strategies.展开更多
It is fundamental and useful to investigate how deep learning forecasting models(DLMs)perform compared to operational oceanography forecast systems(OFSs).However,few studies have intercompared their performances using...It is fundamental and useful to investigate how deep learning forecasting models(DLMs)perform compared to operational oceanography forecast systems(OFSs).However,few studies have intercompared their performances using an identical reference.In this study,three physically reasonable DLMs are implemented for the forecasting of the sea surface temperature(SST),sea level anomaly(SLA),and sea surface velocity in the South China Sea.The DLMs are validated against both the testing dataset and the“OceanPredict”Class 4 dataset.Results show that the DLMs'RMSEs against the latter increase by 44%,245%,302%,and 109%for SST,SLA,current speed,and direction,respectively,compared to those against the former.Therefore,different references have significant influences on the validation,and it is necessary to use an identical and independent reference to intercompare the DLMs and OFSs.Against the Class 4 dataset,the DLMs present significantly better performance for SLA than the OFSs,and slightly better performances for other variables.The error patterns of the DLMs and OFSs show a high degree of similarity,which is reasonable from the viewpoint of predictability,facilitating further applications of the DLMs.For extreme events,the DLMs and OFSs both present large but similar forecast errors for SLA and current speed,while the DLMs are likely to give larger errors for SST and current direction.This study provides an evaluation of the forecast skills of commonly used DLMs and provides an example to objectively intercompare different DLMs.展开更多
Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devi...Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devices have made power load data increasingly complex and volatile.This places higher demands on the prediction and analysis of power loads.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-term power load,a CNN-BiLSTMTPA short-term power prediction model based on the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm(IWOA)with mixed strategies was proposed.Firstly,the model combined the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)with the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network(BiLSTM)to fully extract the spatio-temporal characteristics of the load data itself.Then,the Temporal Pattern Attention(TPA)mechanism was introduced into the CNN-BiLSTM model to automatically assign corresponding weights to the hidden states of the BiLSTM.This allowed the model to differentiate the importance of load sequences at different time intervals.At the same time,in order to solve the problem of the difficulties of selecting the parameters of the temporal model,and the poor global search ability of the whale algorithm,which is easy to fall into the local optimization,the whale algorithm(IWOA)was optimized by using the hybrid strategy of Tent chaos mapping and Levy flight strategy,so as to better search the parameters of the model.In this experiment,the real load data of a region in Zhejiang was taken as an example to analyze,and the prediction accuracy(R2)of the proposed method reached 98.83%.Compared with the prediction models such as BP,WOA-CNN-BiLSTM,SSA-CNN-BiLSTM,CNN-BiGRU-Attention,etc.,the experimental results showed that the model proposed in this study has a higher prediction accuracy.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.52232015by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No.2023M743259.
文摘Spatio-temporal forecasting is critical in the traffic domain,where accurate predictions are essential for effective urban traffic management,planning,and simulation.Despite the importance of complete historical observations,missing values due to sensor failures,data transmission errors,and other issues are common,posing significant challenges to the accuracy and reliability of forecasting models.Existing methods often fail to systematically account for incomplete historical data,especially non-random data missing for extended periods.Fortunately,this study introduces the MissNet,a pre-training enhanced framework for spatio-temporal data forecasting in the presence of missing historical data.MissNet consists of a two-stage process:a pre-training stage where a data masking and recovering task is used to pre-train a backbone,and a finetuning stage where the pre-trained backbone,combined with a specially designed header,predicts future data incorporating spatio-temporal metadata as auxiliary information.Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of MissNet in achieving stable and accurate predictions under various missing data scenarios.
基金Science and Technology Development Program of the“Taihu Light”(K20231023)CMA Numerical Weather Prediction R&D Project(TCYF2024QH007)+1 种基金“Qing Lan”Project of Jiangsu Province for C.H.LUWuxi University Research Start-up Fund for Introduced Talents(2023r037)。
文摘Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed among forecast results produced by different ensemble members when applied to South China.To enhance the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region,it is essential to develop new methods that can effectively leverage multiple predictive models.This study introduces a weighted ensemble forecasting method based on online learning to improve forecast accuracy.We utilized ensemble forecasts from three models:the Integrated Forecasting System model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,the Climate Forecast System Version 2 model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction,and the Beijing Climate Center-Climate Prediction System version 3 model from the China Meteorological Administration.The ensemble weights are trained using an online learning approach.The results indicate that the forecasts obtained through online learning outperform those of the original dynamical models.Compared to the simple ensemble results of the three models,the weighted ensemble model showed a stronger capability to capture temperature and precipitation patterns in South China.Therefore,this method has the potential to improve the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52171284)。
文摘Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware loss function is proposed for accurate multistep wind speed forecasting.In this model,the wind speed data is first denoised using the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform.Next,an encoder-decoder network based on a temporal convolutional network,bidirectional gated recurrent unit,and multihead self-attention is employed for forecasting.Additionally,to enhance the ability of the model to identify temporal dynamics,a shape-aware loss function,ITILDE-Q,is employed in the model.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model,a comparative experiment and an ablation experiment were conducted using three datasets of measured wind speeds.Three error metrics and a similarity metric were adopted for comprehensive evaluation.The experimental results showed that the proposed model consistently outperforms benchmark models in all tested forecasting scenarios,with particularly pronounced differences in performance over longer forecast horizons.Furthermore,the synergistic interaction of the three key components contributes to the extraordinary performance of the proposed model.
基金supported by the Academic Research Projects of Beijing Union University(ZK20202204)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12250005,12073040,12273059,11973056,12003051,11573037,12073041,11427901,11572005,11611530679 and 12473052)+1 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the China Academy of Sciences(XDB0560000,XDA15052200,XDB09040200,XDA15010700,XDB0560301,and XDA15320102)the Chinese Meridian Project(CMP).
文摘The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and navigation systems.Consequently,accurately predicting the intensity of the SC holds great significance,but predicting the SC involves a long-term time series,and many existing time series forecasting methods have fallen short in terms of accuracy and efficiency.The Time-series Dense Encoder model is a deep learning solution tailored for long time series prediction.Based on a multi-layer perceptron structure,it outperforms the best previously existing models in accuracy,while being efficiently trainable on general datasets.We propose a method based on this model for SC forecasting.Using a trained model,we predict the test set from SC 19 to SC 25 with an average mean absolute percentage error of 32.02,root mean square error of 30.3,mean absolute error of 23.32,and R^(2)(coefficient of determination)of 0.76,outperforming other deep learning models in terms of accuracy and training efficiency on sunspot number datasets.Subsequently,we use it to predict the peaks of SC 25 and SC 26.For SC 25,the peak time has ended,but a stronger peak is predicted for SC 26,of 199.3,within a range of 170.8-221.9,projected to occur during April 2034.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.22479092 and 22078190)。
文摘The pseudo-two-dimensional(P2D)model plays an important role in exploring physicochemical mechanisms,predicting the state of health,and improving the fast charge capability for Li-ion batteries(LIBs).However,the fast charge leads to the lithium concentration gradient in the solid and electrolyte phases and the non-uniform electrochemical reaction at the solid/electrolyte interface.In order to decouple charge transfer reactions in LIBs under dynamic conditions,understanding the spatio-temporal resolution of the P2D model is urgently required.Till now,the study of this aspect is still insufficient.This work studies the spatio-temporal resolution for dynamic/static electrochemical impedance spectroscopy(DEIS/SEIS)on multiple scales.In detail,DEIS and SEIS with spatio-temporal resolutions are used to decouple charge transfer reactions in LIBs based on the numerical solution of the P2D model in the frequency domain.The calculated results indicate that decoupling solid diffusion requires a high spatial resolution along the r-direction in particles,decoupling electrolyte diffusion and interfacial transfer reaction requires a high spatial resolution along the x-direction,and decoupling charge transfer reactions in LIBs at an extremely low state of charge(SOC)requires an extremely high temporal resolution along the t-direction.Finally,the optimal range of spatio-temporal resolutions for DEIS/SEIS is derived,and the method to decouple charge transfer reactions with spatio-temporal resolutions is developed.
文摘Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods,accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved.This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines(SVM),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),Random Forest(RF),and Gradient Boosting(GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul(EXIST).All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split,with hyperparameters tuned via 5-fold cross-validation on the training set.XGBoost achieved the best performance(Mean Absolute Error(MAE)=144.8 TRY/MWh,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)=201.8 TRY/MWh,coefficient of determination(R^(2))=0.923)while training in 94 s.To enhance interpretability and identify key drivers,we employed Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),which highlighted a strong association between higher prices and increased natural-gas-based generation.The results provide a clear performance benchmark and practical guidance for selecting forecasting approaches in day-ahead electricity markets.
基金funded by Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education Planning Fund of China,grant number 21YJA790009National Natural Science Foundation of China,grant number 72140001.
文摘With the rapid proliferation of electric vehicles,their charging loads pose new challenges to power grid stability and operational efficiency.To address this,this study employs a Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze the charging load characteristics of six battery electric vehicle categories in Hebei Province,leveraging multi-source probabilistic distribution data under typical operational scenarios.The findings reveal that electric vehicle charging loads are primarily concentrated during midday and nighttime periods,with significant load fluctuations exerting substantial pressure on the grid.In response,this paper proposes strategic interventions including optimized charging infrastructure planning,time-of-use electricity pricing mechanisms,and smart charging technologies to balance grid loads.The results provide a theoretical foundation for electric vehicle load forecasting,smart grid dispatching,and vehicle-grid integration,thereby enhancing grid operational efficiency and sustainability.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 62376217]the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST[grant number 2023QNRC001]the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement[grant number 24NLTSZ003]。
文摘Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep learning to medium-range regional weather forecasting with limited data remains a significant challenge.In this work,three key solutions are proposed:(1)motivated by the need to improve model performance in data-scarce regional forecasting scenarios,the authors innovatively apply semantic segmentation models,to better capture spatiotemporal features and improve prediction accuracy;(2)recognizing the challenge of overfitting and the inability of traditional noise-based data augmentation methods to effectively enhance model robustness,a novel learnable Gaussian noise mechanism is introduced that allows the model to adaptively optimize perturbations for different locations,ensuring more effective learning;and(3)to address the issue of error accumulation in autoregressive prediction,as well as the challenge of learning difficulty and the lack of intermediate data utilization in one-shot prediction,the authors propose a cascade prediction approach that effectively resolves these problems while significantly improving model forecasting performance.The method achieves a competitive result in The East China Regional AI Medium Range Weather Forecasting Competition.Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each component,highlighting their contributions to enhancing prediction performance.
基金supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)funded by the Ministry of Education(RS-2023-00249743).
文摘This study proposes a novel forecasting framework that simultaneously captures the strong periodicity and irregular meteorological fluctuations inherent in solar radiation time series.Existing approaches typically define inter-regional correlations using either simple correlation coefficients or distance-based measures when applying spatio-temporal graph neural networks(STGNNs).However,such definitions are prone to generating spurious correlations due to the dominance of periodic structures.To address this limitation,we adopt the Elastic-Band Transform(EBT)to decompose solar radiation into periodic and amplitude-modulated components,which are then modeled independently with separate graph neural networks.The periodic component,characterized by strong nationwide correlations,is learned with a relatively simple architecture,whereas the amplitude-modulated component is modeled with more complex STGNNs that capture climatological similarities between regions.The predictions from the two components are subsequently recombined to yield final forecasts that integrate both periodic patterns and aperiodic variability.The proposed framework is validated with multiple STGNN architectures,and experimental results demonstrate improved predictive accuracy and interpretability compared to conventional methods.
基金funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research and Libraries at Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University,through the“Nafea”Program,Grant No.(NP-45-082).
文摘Sustainable energy systems will entail a change in the carbon intensity projections,which should be carried out in a proper manner to facilitate the smooth running of the grid and reduce greenhouse emissions.The present article outlines the TransCarbonNet,a novel hybrid deep learning framework with self-attention characteristics added to the bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(Bi-LSTM)network to forecast the carbon intensity of the grid several days.The proposed temporal fusion model not only learns the local temporal interactions but also the long-term patterns of the carbon emission data;hence,it is able to give suitable forecasts over a period of seven days.TransCarbonNet takes advantage of a multi-head self-attention element to identify significant temporal connections,which means the Bi-LSTM element calculates sequential dependencies in both directions.Massive tests on two actual data sets indicate much improved results in comparison with the existing results,with mean relative errors of 15.3 percent and 12.7 percent,respectively.The framework has given explicable weights of attention that reveal critical periods that influence carbon intensity alterations,and informed decisions on the management of carbon sustainability.The effectiveness of the proposed solution has been validated in numerous cases of operations,and TransCarbonNet is established to be an effective tool when it comes to carbon-friendly optimization of the grid.
文摘Predicting the behavior of renewable energy systems requires models capable of generating accurate forecasts from limited historical data,a challenge that becomes especially pronounced when commissioning new facil-ities where operational records are scarce.This review aims to synthesize recent progress in data-efficient deep learning approaches for addressing such“cold-start”forecasting problems.It primarily covers three interrelated domains—solar photovoltaic(PV),wind power,and electrical load forecasting—where data scarcity and operational variability are most critical,while also including representative studies on hydropower and carbon emission prediction to provide a broader systems perspective.To this end,we examined trends from over 150 predominantly peer-reviewed studies published between 2019 and mid-2025,highlighting advances in zero-shot and few-shot meta-learning frameworks that enable rapid model adaptation with minimal labeled data.Moreover,transfer learning approaches combined with spatiotemporal graph neural networks have been employed to transfer knowledge from existing energy assets to new,data-sparse environments,effectively capturing hidden dependencies among geographic features,meteorological dynamics,and grid structures.Synthetic data generation has further proven valuable for expanding training samples and mitigating overfitting in cold-start scenarios.In addition,large language models and explainable artificial intelligence(XAI)—notably conversational XAI systems—have been used to interpret and communicate complex model behaviors in accessible terms,fostering operator trust from the earliest deployment stages.By consolidating methodological advances,unresolved challenges,and open-source resources,this review provides a coherent overview of deep learning strategies that can shorten the data-sparse ramp-up period of new energy infrastructures and accelerate the transition toward resilient,low-carbon electricity grids.
基金This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2017YFC0209804 and 2018YFF0300104)Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence(BAAI)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11421101)the Open Research Fund of Shenzhen Research Institute of Big Data(Grant No.2019ORF01001).
文摘In this paper, we propose a deep spatio-temporal forecasting model (DeepSTF) for multi-site weather prediction post-processing by using both temporal andspatial information. In our proposed framework, the spatio-temporal information ismodeled by a CNN (convolutional neural network) module and an encoder-decoderstructure with the attention mechanism. The novelty of our work lies in that our modeltakes full account of temporal and spatial characteristics and obtain forecasts of multiple meteorological stations simultaneously by using the same framework. We applythe DeepSTF model to short-term weather prediction at 226 meteorological stations inBeijing. It significantly improves the short-term forecasts compared to other widelyused benchmark models including the Model Output Statistics method. In order toevaluate the uncertainty of the model parameters, we estimate the confidence intervals by bootstrapping. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the DeepSTFmodel has strong stability. Finally, we evaluate the impact of seasonal changes and topographical differences on the accuracy of the model predictions. The results indicatethat our proposed model has high prediction accuracy.
基金Basic and Advanced Research Projects of CSTC,Grant/Award Number:cstc2019jcyj-zdxmX0008Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission,Grant/Award Numbers:KJQN202100634,KJZDK201900605National Natural Science Foundation of China,Grant/Award Number:62006065。
文摘Scene perception and trajectory forecasting are two fundamental challenges that are crucial to a safe and reliable autonomous driving(AD)system.However,most proposed methods aim at addressing one of the two challenges mentioned above with a single model.To tackle this dilemma,this paper proposes spatio-temporal semantics and interaction graph aggregation for multi-agent perception and trajectory forecasting(STSIGMA),an efficient end-to-end method to jointly and accurately perceive the AD environment and forecast the trajectories of the surrounding traffic agents within a unified framework.ST-SIGMA adopts a trident encoder-decoder architecture to learn scene semantics and agent interaction information on bird’s-eye view(BEV)maps simultaneously.Specifically,an iterative aggregation network is first employed as the scene semantic encoder(SSE)to learn diverse scene information.To preserve dynamic interactions of traffic agents,ST-SIGMA further exploits a spatio-temporal graph network as the graph interaction encoder.Meanwhile,a simple yet efficient feature fusion method to fuse semantic and interaction features into a unified feature space as the input to a novel hierarchical aggregation decoder for downstream prediction tasks is designed.Extensive experiments on the nuScenes data set have demonstrated that the proposed ST-SIGMA achieves significant improvements compared to the state-of-theart(SOTA)methods in terms of scene perception and trajectory forecasting,respectively.Therefore,the proposed approach outperforms SOTA in terms of model generalisation and robustness and is therefore more feasible for deployment in realworld AD scenarios.
基金Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS,Grant/Award Number:2021103Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Grant/Award Number:XDC02060500。
文摘Appropriately characterising the mixed space-time relations of the contagion process caused by hybrid space and time factors remains the primary challenge in COVID-19 forecasting.However,in previous deep learning models for epidemic forecasting,spatial and temporal variations are captured separately.A unified model is developed to cover all spatio-temporal relations.However,this measure is insufficient for modelling the complex spatio-temporal relations of infectious disease transmission.A dynamic adaptive spatio-temporal graph network(DASTGN)is proposed based on attention mechanisms to improve prediction accuracy.In DASTGN,complex spatio-temporal relations are depicted by adaptively fusing the mixed space-time effects and dynamic space-time dependency structure.This dual-scale model considers the time-specific,space-specific,and direct effects of the propagation process at the fine-grained level.Furthermore,the model characterises impacts from various space-time neighbour blocks under time-varying interventions at the coarse-grained level.The performance comparisons on the three COVID-19 datasets reveal that DASTGN achieves state-of-the-art results with a maximum improvement of 17.092%in the root mean-square error and 11.563%in the mean absolute error.Experimental results indicate that the mechanisms of designing DASTGN can effectively detect some spreading characteristics of COVID-19.The spatio-temporal weight matrices learned in each proposed module reveal diffusion patterns in various scenarios.In conclusion,DASTGN has successfully captured the dynamic spatio-temporal variations of COVID-19,and considering multiple dynamic space-time relationships is essential in epidemic forecasting.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42161006Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects No.202201AT070094,No.202301BF070001-004+1 种基金Special Project for High-level Talents of Yunnan Province for Young Top Talents,No.C6213001159European Research Council(ERC)Starting-Grant STORIES,No.101040939。
文摘Due to water conflicts and allocation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin(LMRB),the spatio-temporal differentiation of total water resources and the natural-human influence need to be clarified.This work investigated LMRB's terrestrial water storage anomaly(TWSA)and its spatio-temporal dynamics during 2002–2020.Considering the effects of natural factors and human activities,the respective contributions of climate variability and human activities to terrestrial water storage change(TWSC)were separated.Results showed that:(1)LMRB's TWSA decreased by 0.3158 cm/a.(2)TWSA showed a gradual increase in distribution from southwest of MRB to middle LMRB and from northeast of LRB to middle LMRB.TWSA positively changed in Myanmar while slightly changed in Laos and China.It negatively changed in Vietnam,Thailand and Cambodia.(3)TWSA components decreased in a descending order of soil moisture,groundwater and precipitation.(4)Natural factors had a substantial and spatial differentiated influence on TWSA over the LMRB.(5)Climate variability contributed 79%of TWSC in the LMRB while human activities contributed 21%with an increasing impact after 2008.The TWSC of upstream basin countries was found to be controlled by climate variability while Vietnam and Cambodia's TWSC has been controlled by human activities since 2012.
文摘The ability to accurately predict urban traffic flows is crucial for optimising city operations.Consequently,various methods for forecasting urban traffic have been developed,focusing on analysing historical data to understand complex mobility patterns.Deep learning techniques,such as graph neural networks(GNNs),are popular for their ability to capture spatio-temporal dependencies.However,these models often become overly complex due to the large number of hyper-parameters involved.In this study,we introduce Dynamic Multi-Graph Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equation Networks(DMST-GNODE),a framework based on ordinary differential equations(ODEs)that autonomously discovers effective spatial-temporal graph neural network(STGNN)architectures for traffic prediction tasks.The comparative analysis of DMST-GNODE and baseline models indicates that DMST-GNODE model demonstrates superior performance across multiple datasets,consistently achieving the lowest Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)values,alongside the highest accuracy.On the BKK(Bangkok)dataset,it outperformed other models with an RMSE of 3.3165 and an accuracy of 0.9367 for a 20-min interval,maintaining this trend across 40 and 60 min.Similarly,on the PeMS08 dataset,DMST-GNODE achieved the best performance with an RMSE of 19.4863 and an accuracy of 0.9377 at 20 min,demonstrating its effectiveness over longer periods.The Los_Loop dataset results further emphasise this model’s advantage,with an RMSE of 3.3422 and an accuracy of 0.7643 at 20 min,consistently maintaining superiority across all time intervals.These numerical highlights indicate that DMST-GNODE not only outperforms baseline models but also achieves higher accuracy and lower errors across different time intervals and datasets.
基金supported by the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF(Grant No.GZB20230685)the National Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42277161).
文摘Forecasting landslide deformation is challenging due to influence of various internal and external factors on the occurrence of systemic and localized heterogeneities.Despite the potential to improve landslide predictability,deep learning has yet to be sufficiently explored for complex deformation patterns associated with landslides and is inherently opaque.Herein,we developed a holistic landslide deformation forecasting method that considers spatiotemporal correlations of landslide deformation by integrating domain knowledge into interpretable deep learning.By spatially capturing the interconnections between multiple deformations from different observation points,our method contributes to the understanding and forecasting of landslide systematic behavior.By integrating specific domain knowledge relevant to each observation point and merging internal properties with external variables,the local heterogeneity is considered in our method,identifying deformation temporal patterns in different landslide zones.Case studies involving reservoir-induced landslides and creeping landslides demonstrated that our approach(1)enhances the accuracy of landslide deformation forecasting,(2)identifies significant contributing factors and their influence on spatiotemporal deformation characteristics,and(3)demonstrates how identifying these factors and patterns facilitates landslide forecasting.Our research offers a promising and pragmatic pathway toward a deeper understanding and forecasting of complex landslide behaviors.
文摘Photovoltaic(PV)power forecasting is essential for balancing energy supply and demand in renewable energy systems.However,the performance of PV panels varies across different technologies due to differences in efficiency and how they process solar radiation.This study evaluates the effectiveness of deep learning models in predicting PV power generation for three panel technologies:Hybrid-Si,Mono-Si,and Poly-Si,across three forecasting horizons:1-step,12-step,and 24-step.Among the tested models,the Convolutional Neural Network—Long Short-Term Memory(CNN-LSTM)architecture exhibited superior performance,particularly for the 24-step horizon,achieving R^(2)=0.9793 and MAE 0.0162 for the Poly-Si array,followed by Mono-Si(R^(2)=0.9768)and Hybrid-Si arrays(R^(2)=0.9769).These findings demonstrate that the CNN-LSTM model can provide accurate and reliable PV power predictions for all studied technologies.By identifying the most suitable predictive model for each panel technology,this study contributes to optimizing PV power forecasting and improving energy management strategies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42375062 and 42275158)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility”(EarthLab)the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(Grant No.22JR5RF1080)。
文摘It is fundamental and useful to investigate how deep learning forecasting models(DLMs)perform compared to operational oceanography forecast systems(OFSs).However,few studies have intercompared their performances using an identical reference.In this study,three physically reasonable DLMs are implemented for the forecasting of the sea surface temperature(SST),sea level anomaly(SLA),and sea surface velocity in the South China Sea.The DLMs are validated against both the testing dataset and the“OceanPredict”Class 4 dataset.Results show that the DLMs'RMSEs against the latter increase by 44%,245%,302%,and 109%for SST,SLA,current speed,and direction,respectively,compared to those against the former.Therefore,different references have significant influences on the validation,and it is necessary to use an identical and independent reference to intercompare the DLMs and OFSs.Against the Class 4 dataset,the DLMs present significantly better performance for SLA than the OFSs,and slightly better performances for other variables.The error patterns of the DLMs and OFSs show a high degree of similarity,which is reasonable from the viewpoint of predictability,facilitating further applications of the DLMs.For extreme events,the DLMs and OFSs both present large but similar forecast errors for SLA and current speed,while the DLMs are likely to give larger errors for SST and current direction.This study provides an evaluation of the forecast skills of commonly used DLMs and provides an example to objectively intercompare different DLMs.
文摘Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devices have made power load data increasingly complex and volatile.This places higher demands on the prediction and analysis of power loads.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-term power load,a CNN-BiLSTMTPA short-term power prediction model based on the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm(IWOA)with mixed strategies was proposed.Firstly,the model combined the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)with the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network(BiLSTM)to fully extract the spatio-temporal characteristics of the load data itself.Then,the Temporal Pattern Attention(TPA)mechanism was introduced into the CNN-BiLSTM model to automatically assign corresponding weights to the hidden states of the BiLSTM.This allowed the model to differentiate the importance of load sequences at different time intervals.At the same time,in order to solve the problem of the difficulties of selecting the parameters of the temporal model,and the poor global search ability of the whale algorithm,which is easy to fall into the local optimization,the whale algorithm(IWOA)was optimized by using the hybrid strategy of Tent chaos mapping and Levy flight strategy,so as to better search the parameters of the model.In this experiment,the real load data of a region in Zhejiang was taken as an example to analyze,and the prediction accuracy(R2)of the proposed method reached 98.83%.Compared with the prediction models such as BP,WOA-CNN-BiLSTM,SSA-CNN-BiLSTM,CNN-BiGRU-Attention,etc.,the experimental results showed that the model proposed in this study has a higher prediction accuracy.
