Root zone soil moisture(RZSM)plays a critical role in land-atmosphere hydrological cycles and serves as the primary water source for vegetation growth.However,the correlations between RZSM and its associated variables...Root zone soil moisture(RZSM)plays a critical role in land-atmosphere hydrological cycles and serves as the primary water source for vegetation growth.However,the correlations between RZSM and its associated variables,including surface soil moisture(SSM),often exhibit nonlinearities that are challenging to identify and quantify using conventional statistical techniques.Therefore,this study presents a hybrid convolutional neural network(CNN)-long short-term memory neural network(LSTM)-attention(CLA)model for predicting RZSM.Owing to the scarcity of soil moisture(SM)observation data,the physical model Hydrus-1D was employed to simulate a comprehensive dataset of spatial-temporal SM.Meteorological data and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer vegetation characterization parameters were used as predictor variables for the training and validation of the CLA model.The results of the CLA model for SM prediction in the root zone were significantly enhanced compared with those of the traditional LSTM and CNN-LSTM models.This was particularly notable at the depth of 80–100 cm,where the fitness(R^(2))reached nearly 0.9298.Moreover,the root mean square error of the CLA model was reduced by 49%and 57%compared with those of the LSTM and CNN-LSTM models,respectively.This study demonstrates that the integration of physical modeling and deep learning methods provides a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of spatial-temporal SM variations in the root zone.展开更多
Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying ...Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying issues with services,products,or customer experience,resulting in considerable income loss.Prediction of customer churn is a crucial task aimed at retaining customers and maintaining revenue growth.Traditional machine learning(ML)models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies in client behavior data.To address this,an optimized deep learning(DL)approach using a Regularized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(RBiLSTM)model is proposed to mitigate overfitting and improve generalization error.The model integrates dropout,L2-regularization,and early stopping to enhance predictive accuracy while preventing over-reliance on specific patterns.Moreover,this study investigates the effect of optimization techniques on boosting the training efficiency of the developed model.Experimental results on a recent public customer churn dataset demonstrate that the trained model outperforms the traditional ML models and some other DL models,such as Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Deep Neural Network(DNN),in churn prediction performance and stability.The proposed approach achieves 96.1%accuracy,compared with LSTM and DNN,which attain 94.5%and 94.1%accuracy,respectively.These results confirm that the proposed approach can be used as a valuable tool for businesses to identify at-risk consumers proactively and implement targeted retention strategies.展开更多
Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy...Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy plates.First,finite element simulations of casting processes were carried out with various parameters to build a dataset.Subsequently,different machine learning algorithms were employed to achieve high precision in predicting temperature fields,mushy zone locations,mushy zone inclination angle,and billet grain size.Finally,the process parameters were quickly optimized using a strategy consisting of random generation,prediction,and screening,allowing the mushy zone to be controlled to the desired target.The optimized parameters are 1234℃for heating mold temperature,47 mm/min for casting speed,and 10 L/min for cooling water flow rate.The optimized mushy zone is located in the middle of the second heat insulation section and has an inclination angle of roughly 7°.展开更多
Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiote...Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.展开更多
Accurate traffic flow prediction has a profound impact on modern traffic management. Traffic flow has complex spatial-temporal correlations and periodicity, which poses difficulties for precise prediction. To address ...Accurate traffic flow prediction has a profound impact on modern traffic management. Traffic flow has complex spatial-temporal correlations and periodicity, which poses difficulties for precise prediction. To address this problem, a Multi-head Self-attention and Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (MSSTGCN) for multiscale traffic flow prediction is proposed. Firstly, to capture the hidden traffic periodicity of traffic flow, traffic flow is divided into three kinds of periods, including hourly, daily, and weekly data. Secondly, a graph attention residual layer is constructed to learn the global spatial features across regions. Local spatial-temporal dependence is captured by using a T-GCN module. Thirdly, a transformer layer is introduced to learn the long-term dependence in time. A position embedding mechanism is introduced to label position information for all traffic sequences. Thus, this multi-head self-attention mechanism can recognize the sequence order and allocate weights for different time nodes. Experimental results on four real-world datasets show that the MSSTGCN performs better than the baseline methods and can be successfully adapted to traffic prediction tasks.展开更多
Spatial-temporal traffic prediction technology is crucial for network planning,resource allocation optimizing,and user experience improving.With the development of virtual network operators,multi-operator collaboratio...Spatial-temporal traffic prediction technology is crucial for network planning,resource allocation optimizing,and user experience improving.With the development of virtual network operators,multi-operator collaborations,and edge computing,spatial-temporal traffic data has taken on a distributed nature.Consequently,noncentralized spatial-temporal traffic prediction solutions have emerged as a recent research focus.Currently,the majority of research typically adopts federated learning methods to train traffic prediction models distributed on each base station.This method reduces additional burden on communication systems.However,this method has a drawback:it cannot handle irregular traffic data.Due to unstable wireless network environments,device failures,insufficient storage resources,etc.,data missing inevitably occurs during the process of collecting traffic data.This results in the irregular nature of distributed traffic data.Yet,commonly used traffic prediction models such as Recurrent Neural Networks(RNN)and Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)typically assume that the data is complete and regular.To address the challenge of handling irregular traffic data,this paper transforms irregular traffic prediction into problems of estimating latent variables and generating future traffic.To solve the aforementioned problems,this paper introduces split learning to design a structured distributed learning framework.The framework comprises a Global-level Spatial structure mining Model(GSM)and several Nodelevel Generative Models(NGMs).NGM and GSM represent Seq2Seq models deployed on the base station and graph neural network models deployed on the cloud or central controller.Firstly,the time embedding layer in NGM establishes the mapping relationship between irregular traffic data and regular latent temporal feature variables.Secondly,GSM collects statistical feature parameters of latent temporal feature variables from various nodes and executes graph embedding for spatial-temporal traffic data.Finally,NGM generates future traffic based on latent temporal and spatial feature variables.The introduction of the time attention mechanism enhances the framework’s capability to handle irregular traffic data.Graph attention network introduces spatially correlated base station traffic feature information into local traffic prediction,which compensates for missing information in local irregular traffic data.The proposed framework effectively addresses the distributed prediction issues of irregular traffic data.By testing on real world datasets,the proposed framework improves traffic prediction accuracy by 35%compared to other commonly used distributed traffic prediction methods.展开更多
Human trajectory prediction is essential and promising in many related applications. This is challenging due to the uncertainty of human behaviors, which can be influenced not only by himself, but also by the surround...Human trajectory prediction is essential and promising in many related applications. This is challenging due to the uncertainty of human behaviors, which can be influenced not only by himself, but also by the surrounding environment. Recent works based on long-short term memory(LSTM) models have brought tremendous improvements on the task of trajectory prediction. However, most of them focus on the spatial influence of humans but ignore the temporal influence. In this paper, we propose a novel spatial-temporal attention(ST-Attention) model,which studies spatial and temporal affinities jointly. Specifically,we introduce an attention mechanism to extract temporal affinity,learning the importance for historical trajectory information at different time instants. To explore spatial affinity, a deep neural network is employed to measure different importance of the neighbors. Experimental results show that our method achieves competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art methods on publicly available datasets.展开更多
The success of intelligent transportation systems relies heavily on accurate traffic prediction,in which how to model the underlying spatial-temporal information from traffic data has come under the spotlight.Most exi...The success of intelligent transportation systems relies heavily on accurate traffic prediction,in which how to model the underlying spatial-temporal information from traffic data has come under the spotlight.Most existing frameworks typically utilize separate modules for spatial and temporal correlations modeling.However,this stepwise pattern may limit the effectiveness and efficiency in spatial-temporal feature extraction and cause the overlook of important information in some steps.Furthermore,it is lacking sufficient guidance from prior information while modeling based on a given spatial adjacency graph(e.g.,deriving from the geodesic distance or approximate connectivity),and may not reflect the actual interaction between nodes.To overcome those limitations,our paper proposes a spatial-temporal graph synchronous aggregation(STGSA)model to extract the localized and long-term spatial-temporal dependencies simultaneously.Specifically,a tailored graph aggregation method in the vertex domain is designed to extract spatial and temporal features in one graph convolution process.In each STGSA block,we devise a directed temporal correlation graph to represent the localized and long-term dependencies between nodes,and the potential temporal dependence is further fine-tuned by an adaptive weighting operation.Meanwhile,we construct an elaborated spatial adjacency matrix to represent the road sensor graph by considering both physical distance and node similarity in a datadriven manner.Then,inspired by the multi-head attention mechanism which can jointly emphasize information from different r epresentation subspaces,we construct a multi-stream module based on the STGSA blocks to capture global information.It projects the embedding input repeatedly with multiple different channels.Finally,the predicted values are generated by stacking several multi-stream modules.Extensive experiments are constructed on six real-world datasets,and numerical results show that the proposed STGSA model significantly outperforms the benchmarks.展开更多
Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the stre...To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the strength and elastic modulus of mortar and concrete prepared with mechanism aggregates of the corresponding lithology,and the stress-strain curves of concrete were investigated.In this paper,a coarse aggregate and mortar matrix bonding assumption is proposed,and a prediction model for the elastic modulus of mortar is established by considering the lithology of the mechanism sand and the slurry components.An equivalent coarse aggregate elastic modulus model was established by considering factors such as coarse aggregate particle size,volume fraction,and mortar thickness between coarse aggregates.Based on the elastic modulus of the equivalent coarse aggregate and the remaining mortar,a prediction model for the elastic modulus of the two and three components of concrete in series and then in parallel was established,and the predicted values differed from the measured values within 10%.It is proposed that the coarse aggregate elastic modulus in highstrength concrete is the most critical factor affecting the elastic modulus of concrete,and as the coarse aggregate elastic modulus increases by 27.7%,the concrete elastic modulus increases by 19.5%.展开更多
Accurate prediction of flood events is important for flood control and risk management.Machine learning techniques contributed greatly to advances in flood predictions,and existing studies mainly focused on predicting...Accurate prediction of flood events is important for flood control and risk management.Machine learning techniques contributed greatly to advances in flood predictions,and existing studies mainly focused on predicting flood resource variables using single or hybrid machine learning techniques.However,class-based flood predictions have rarely been investigated,which can aid in quickly diagnosing comprehensive flood characteristics and proposing targeted management strategies.This study proposed a prediction approach of flood regime metrics and event classes coupling machine learning algorithms with clustering-deduced membership degrees.Five algorithms were adopted for this exploration.Results showed that the class membership degrees accurately determined event classes with class hit rates up to 100%,compared with the four classes clustered from nine regime metrics.The nonlinear algorithms(Multiple Linear Regression,Random Forest,and least squares-Support Vector Machine)outperformed the linear techniques(Multiple Linear Regression and Stepwise Regression)in predicting flood regime metrics.The proposed approach well predicted flood event classes with average class hit rates of 66.0%-85.4%and 47.2%-76.0%in calibration and validation periods,respectively,particularly for the slow and late flood events.The predictive capability of the proposed prediction approach for flood regime metrics and classes was considerably stronger than that of hydrological modeling approach.展开更多
Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Reg...Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Regression models and Neural network models,to perform multi-characteristic coupled displacement prediction because they fail to consider landslide creep characteristics.This paper integrates the creep characteristics of landslides with non-linear intelligent algorithms and proposes a dynamic intelligent landslide displacement prediction method based on a combination of the Biological Growth model(BG),Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),and Long ShortTerm Memory Network(LSTM).This prediction approach improves three different biological growth models,thereby effectively extracting landslide creep characteristic parameters.Simultaneously,it integrates external factors(rainfall and reservoir water level)to construct an internal and external comprehensive dataset for data augmentation,which is input into the improved CNN-LSTM model.Thereafter,harnessing the robust feature extraction capabilities and spatial translation invariance of CNN,the model autonomously captures short-term local fluctuation characteristics of landslide displacement,and combines LSTM's efficient handling of long-term nonlinear temporal data to improve prediction performance.An evaluation of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area indicates that BG-CNN-LSTM exhibits high prediction accuracy,excellent generalization capabilities when dealing with various types of landslides.The research provides an innovative approach to achieving the whole-process,realtime,high-precision displacement predictions for multicharacteristic coupled landslides.展开更多
A new unified constitutive model was developed to predict the two-stage creep-aging(TSCA)behavior of Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys.The particular bimodal precipitation feature was analyzed and modeled by considering the primary ...A new unified constitutive model was developed to predict the two-stage creep-aging(TSCA)behavior of Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys.The particular bimodal precipitation feature was analyzed and modeled by considering the primary micro-variables evolution at different temperatures and their interaction.The dislocation density was incorporated into the model to capture the effect of creep deformation on precipitation.Quantitative transmission electron microscopy and experimental data obtained from a previous study were used to calibrate the model.Subsequently,the developed constitutive model was implemented in the finite element(FE)software ABAQUS via the user subroutines for TSCA process simulation and the springback prediction of an integral panel.A TSCA test was performed.The result shows that the maximum radius deviation between the formed plate and the simulation results is less than 0.4 mm,thus validating the effectiveness of the developed constitutive model and FE model.展开更多
Background: Pancreatic cancer is one of the most lethal malignancies, with postoperative recurrence severely affecting patient survival and prognosis. This study aims to develop and validate a clinical prediction mode...Background: Pancreatic cancer is one of the most lethal malignancies, with postoperative recurrence severely affecting patient survival and prognosis. This study aims to develop and validate a clinical prediction model for postoperative recurrence in pancreatic cancer patients, incorporating multiple preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors to assist clinical decision-making. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 216 patients who underwent surgical treatment for pancreatic malignancy at the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between January 2015 and January 2023. An independent external validation cohort of 76 patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University was used to validate the model. Seven independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence were identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The model’s performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and ROC curves, and its accuracy and clinical value were assessed using calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: The predictive model demonstrated good discriminatory power, with a C-index of 0.72 in the training cohort and 0.66 in the validation cohort. The ROC curves for predicting recurrence at 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively showed AUC values ranging from 0.72 to 0.83, indicating strong predictive value. Calibration curves and DCA confirmed the model’s accuracy and clinical utility. Conclusion: This study successfully developed and validated a clinical prediction model that incorporates seven independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence in pancreatic cancer. The model provides a useful tool for predicting recurrence risk, aiding in the identification of high-risk patients, and informing clinical decision-making.展开更多
With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration predict...With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration prediction system is of great scientific and practical significance for accurate and reliable predictions.This paper proposes a combination of pointinterval prediction system for pollutant concentration prediction by leveraging neural network,meta-heuristic optimization algorithm,and fuzzy theory.Fuzzy information granulation technology is used in data preprocessing to transform numerical sequences into fuzzy particles for comprehensive feature extraction.The golden Jackal optimization algorithm is employed in the optimization stage to fine-tune model hyperparameters.In the prediction stage,an ensemble learning method combines training results frommultiplemodels to obtain final point predictions while also utilizing quantile regression and kernel density estimation methods for interval predictions on the test set.Experimental results demonstrate that the combined model achieves a high goodness of fit coefficient of determination(R^(2))at 99.3% and a maximum difference between prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and benchmark model at 12.6%.This suggests that the integrated learning system proposed in this paper can provide more accurate deterministic predictions as well as reliable uncertainty analysis compared to traditionalmodels,offering practical reference for air quality early warning.展开更多
AIM:To explore the relationship between matrix metalloproteinases(MMPs)expression levels in the tumor and the prognosis of uveal melanoma(UM)and to construct prognostic prediction models.METHODS:Transcriptome sequenci...AIM:To explore the relationship between matrix metalloproteinases(MMPs)expression levels in the tumor and the prognosis of uveal melanoma(UM)and to construct prognostic prediction models.METHODS:Transcriptome sequencing data from 17 normal choroid tissues and 53 UM tumor tissues were collected.Based on the differential gene expression levels and their function,MMPs family was selected for establishing risk-score system and prognostic prediction model with machine learning.Tumor microenvironment(TME)analysis was also applied for the impact of immune cell infiltration on prognosis of the disease.RESULTS:Eight MMPs were significantly different expression levels between normal and the tumor tissues.MMP-2 and MMP-28 were selected to construct a risk-score system and divided patients accordingly into high-and low-risk groups.The prediction model based on the risk-score achieved an accuracy of approximately 80%at 1-,3-,and 5-year after diagnosis.Besides,a Nomogram prognostic prediction model which based on risk-score and pathological type(independent prognostic factors after Cox regression analysis)demonstrated good consistency between the predicted outcomes at 1-,3-,and 5-year after diagnosis and the actual prognosis of patients.TME analysis revealed that the high-risk group exhibited higher immune and stromal scores and increased infiltration of tumor-associated macrophages(TAMs)and regulatory T cells compared to the low-risk group.CONCLUSION:Based on MMP-2 and MMP-28 expression levels,our prediction model demonstrates accurate long-term prognosis prediction for UM patients.The aggregation of TAMs and regulatory T cells in the TME of UM may be associated with an unfavorable prognosis.展开更多
BACKGROUND Colorectal polyps(CPs)are important precursor lesions of colorectal cancer,and endoscopic surgery remains the primary treatment option.However,the shortterm recurrence rate post-surgery is high,and the risk...BACKGROUND Colorectal polyps(CPs)are important precursor lesions of colorectal cancer,and endoscopic surgery remains the primary treatment option.However,the shortterm recurrence rate post-surgery is high,and the risk factors for recurrence remain unknown.AIM To comprehensively explore risk factors for short-term recurrence of CPs after endoscopic surgery and develop a nomogram prediction model.METHODS Overall,362 patients who underwent endoscopic polypectomy between January 2022 and January 2024 at Nanjing Jiangbei Hospital were included.We screened basic demographic data,clinical and polyp characteristics,surgery-related information,and independent risk factors for CPs recurrence using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.The multivariate analysis results were used to construct a nomogram prediction model,internally validated using Bootstrapping,with performance evaluated using area under the curve(AUC),calibration curve,and decision curve analysis.RESULTS CP re-occurred in 166(45.86%)of the 362 patients within 1 year post-surgery.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=1.04,P=0.002),alcohol consumption(OR=2.07,P=0.012),Helicobacter pylori infection(OR=2.34,P<0.001),polyp number>2(OR=1.98,P=0.005),sessile polyps(OR=2.10,P=0.006),and adenomatous pathological type(OR=3.02,P<0.001)were independent risk factors for post-surgery recurrence.The nomogram prediction model showed good discriminatory(AUC=0.73)and calibrating power,and decision curve analysis showed that the model had good clinical benefit at risk probabilities>20%.CONCLUSION We identified multiple independent risk factors for short-term recurrence after endoscopic surgery.The nomogram prediction model showed a certain degree of differentiation,calibration,and potential clinical applicability.展开更多
The prediction of the rolling force and thickness ratio plays an important role in the development and application of bimetallic composite plates.To analyze the rolling force of the bimetallic composite plate more acc...The prediction of the rolling force and thickness ratio plays an important role in the development and application of bimetallic composite plates.To analyze the rolling force of the bimetallic composite plate more accurately,a novel hypothesis based on Orowan's theory was proposed.The variation in the thickness of each differential element at different positions was considered to establish the analytical model.According to the characteristics of bimetallic composite plate rolling,the rolling deformation can be divided into forward and backward slip zones.The initial thickness ratio after rolling was predetermined by the thickness ratio before rolling;the rolling force balance of the upper and lower rollers was considered the convergence condition;and the final thickness ratio of the bimetallic composite plate was obtained by iterative calculation.The calculation results of the analytical model were compared with the measured and simulated data.The results showed that the errors in the calculation of the rolling force and thickness ratio were both less than 10%.The analytical model has high precision,meets engineering requirements,and has important reference significance for rolling process optimization and thickness ratio prediction.展开更多
Systematic bias is a type of model error that can affect the accuracy of data assimilation and forecasting that must be addressed.An online bias correction scheme called the sequential bias correction scheme(SBCS),was...Systematic bias is a type of model error that can affect the accuracy of data assimilation and forecasting that must be addressed.An online bias correction scheme called the sequential bias correction scheme(SBCS),was developed using the6 h average bias to correct the systematic bias during model integration.The primary purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the SBCS in the high-resolution China Meteorological Administration Meso-scale(CMA-MESO)numerical weather prediction(NWP)model to reduce the systematic bias and to improve the data assimilation and forecast results through this method.The SBCS is improved upon and applied to the CMA-MESO 3-km model in this study.Four-week sequential data assimilation and forecast experiments,driven by rapid update and cycling(RUC),were conducted for the period from 2–29 May 2022.In terms of the characteristics of systematic bias,both the background and analysis show diurnal bias,and these large biases are affected by complex underlying surfaces(e.g.,oceans,coasts,and mountains).After the application of the SBCS,the results of the data assimilation show that the SBCS can reduce the systematic bias of the background and yield a neutral to slightly positive result for the analysis fields.In addition,the SBCS can reduce forecast errors and improve forecast results,especially for surface variables.The above results indicate that this scheme has good prospects for high-resolution regional NWP models.展开更多
BACKGROUND Rabies is a zoonotic viral disease affecting the central nervous system,caused by the rabies virus,with a case-fatality rate of 100%once symptoms appear.AIM To analyze high-risk factors associated with ment...BACKGROUND Rabies is a zoonotic viral disease affecting the central nervous system,caused by the rabies virus,with a case-fatality rate of 100%once symptoms appear.AIM To analyze high-risk factors associated with mental disorders induced by rabies vaccination and to construct a risk prediction model to inform strategies for improving patients’mental health.METHODS Patients who received rabies vaccinations at the Department of Infusion Yiwu Central Hospital between August 2024 and July 2025 were included,totaling 384 cases.Data were collected from medical records and included demographic characteristics(age,gender,occupation),lifestyle habits,and details regarding vaccine type,dosage,and injection site.The incidence of psychiatric disorders following vaccination was assessed using standardized anxiety and depression rating scales.Patients were categorized into two groups based on the presence or absence of anxiety and depression symptoms:The psychiatric disorder group and the non-psychiatric disorder group.Differences between the two groups were compared,and high-risk factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis.A predictive model was then developed based on these factors to evaluate its predictive performance.RESULTS Among the 384 patients who received rabies vaccinations,36 cases(9.38%)were diagnosed with anxiety,52 cases(13.54%)with depression,and 88 cases(22.92%)with either condition.Logistic regression analysis identified the following signi ficant risk factors for psychiatric disorders:Education level of primary school or below,exposure site at the head and neck,exposure classified as grade III,family status of divorced/widowed/unmarried/living alone,number of wounds greater than one,and low awareness of rabies prevention and control(P<0.05).The risk prediction model demonstrated good performance,with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.859,a specificity of 74.42%,and a sensitivity of 93.02%.CONCLUSION In real-world settings,psychiatric disorders following rabies vaccination are relatively common and are associated with factors such as lower education level,higher exposure severity,vulnerable family status,and limited awareness of rabies prevention and control.The developed risk prediction model may aid in early identification of high-risk individuals and support timely clinical intervention.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42061065)the Third Xinjiang Comprehensive Scientific Expedition,China(No.2022xjkk03010102).
文摘Root zone soil moisture(RZSM)plays a critical role in land-atmosphere hydrological cycles and serves as the primary water source for vegetation growth.However,the correlations between RZSM and its associated variables,including surface soil moisture(SSM),often exhibit nonlinearities that are challenging to identify and quantify using conventional statistical techniques.Therefore,this study presents a hybrid convolutional neural network(CNN)-long short-term memory neural network(LSTM)-attention(CLA)model for predicting RZSM.Owing to the scarcity of soil moisture(SM)observation data,the physical model Hydrus-1D was employed to simulate a comprehensive dataset of spatial-temporal SM.Meteorological data and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer vegetation characterization parameters were used as predictor variables for the training and validation of the CLA model.The results of the CLA model for SM prediction in the root zone were significantly enhanced compared with those of the traditional LSTM and CNN-LSTM models.This was particularly notable at the depth of 80–100 cm,where the fitness(R^(2))reached nearly 0.9298.Moreover,the root mean square error of the CLA model was reduced by 49%and 57%compared with those of the LSTM and CNN-LSTM models,respectively.This study demonstrates that the integration of physical modeling and deep learning methods provides a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of spatial-temporal SM variations in the root zone.
文摘Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying issues with services,products,or customer experience,resulting in considerable income loss.Prediction of customer churn is a crucial task aimed at retaining customers and maintaining revenue growth.Traditional machine learning(ML)models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies in client behavior data.To address this,an optimized deep learning(DL)approach using a Regularized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(RBiLSTM)model is proposed to mitigate overfitting and improve generalization error.The model integrates dropout,L2-regularization,and early stopping to enhance predictive accuracy while preventing over-reliance on specific patterns.Moreover,this study investigates the effect of optimization techniques on boosting the training efficiency of the developed model.Experimental results on a recent public customer churn dataset demonstrate that the trained model outperforms the traditional ML models and some other DL models,such as Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Deep Neural Network(DNN),in churn prediction performance and stability.The proposed approach achieves 96.1%accuracy,compared with LSTM and DNN,which attain 94.5%and 94.1%accuracy,respectively.These results confirm that the proposed approach can be used as a valuable tool for businesses to identify at-risk consumers proactively and implement targeted retention strategies.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2023YFB3812601)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51925401)the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST, China (No. 2022QNRC001)。
文摘Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy plates.First,finite element simulations of casting processes were carried out with various parameters to build a dataset.Subsequently,different machine learning algorithms were employed to achieve high precision in predicting temperature fields,mushy zone locations,mushy zone inclination angle,and billet grain size.Finally,the process parameters were quickly optimized using a strategy consisting of random generation,prediction,and screening,allowing the mushy zone to be controlled to the desired target.The optimized parameters are 1234℃for heating mold temperature,47 mm/min for casting speed,and 10 L/min for cooling water flow rate.The optimized mushy zone is located in the middle of the second heat insulation section and has an inclination angle of roughly 7°.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2022YFE0106800]an Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number 311024001]+3 种基金a project supported by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number SML2023SP209]a Research Council of Norway funded project(MAPARC)[grant number 328943]a Nansen Center´s basic institutional funding[grant number 342624]the high-performance computing support from the School of Atmospheric Science at Sun Yat-sen University。
文摘Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.62472149,62376089,62202147)Hubei Provincial Science and Technology Plan Project(2023BCB04100).
文摘Accurate traffic flow prediction has a profound impact on modern traffic management. Traffic flow has complex spatial-temporal correlations and periodicity, which poses difficulties for precise prediction. To address this problem, a Multi-head Self-attention and Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (MSSTGCN) for multiscale traffic flow prediction is proposed. Firstly, to capture the hidden traffic periodicity of traffic flow, traffic flow is divided into three kinds of periods, including hourly, daily, and weekly data. Secondly, a graph attention residual layer is constructed to learn the global spatial features across regions. Local spatial-temporal dependence is captured by using a T-GCN module. Thirdly, a transformer layer is introduced to learn the long-term dependence in time. A position embedding mechanism is introduced to label position information for all traffic sequences. Thus, this multi-head self-attention mechanism can recognize the sequence order and allocate weights for different time nodes. Experimental results on four real-world datasets show that the MSSTGCN performs better than the baseline methods and can be successfully adapted to traffic prediction tasks.
基金supported by the Beijing Natural Science Foundation(Certificate Number:L234025).
文摘Spatial-temporal traffic prediction technology is crucial for network planning,resource allocation optimizing,and user experience improving.With the development of virtual network operators,multi-operator collaborations,and edge computing,spatial-temporal traffic data has taken on a distributed nature.Consequently,noncentralized spatial-temporal traffic prediction solutions have emerged as a recent research focus.Currently,the majority of research typically adopts federated learning methods to train traffic prediction models distributed on each base station.This method reduces additional burden on communication systems.However,this method has a drawback:it cannot handle irregular traffic data.Due to unstable wireless network environments,device failures,insufficient storage resources,etc.,data missing inevitably occurs during the process of collecting traffic data.This results in the irregular nature of distributed traffic data.Yet,commonly used traffic prediction models such as Recurrent Neural Networks(RNN)and Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)typically assume that the data is complete and regular.To address the challenge of handling irregular traffic data,this paper transforms irregular traffic prediction into problems of estimating latent variables and generating future traffic.To solve the aforementioned problems,this paper introduces split learning to design a structured distributed learning framework.The framework comprises a Global-level Spatial structure mining Model(GSM)and several Nodelevel Generative Models(NGMs).NGM and GSM represent Seq2Seq models deployed on the base station and graph neural network models deployed on the cloud or central controller.Firstly,the time embedding layer in NGM establishes the mapping relationship between irregular traffic data and regular latent temporal feature variables.Secondly,GSM collects statistical feature parameters of latent temporal feature variables from various nodes and executes graph embedding for spatial-temporal traffic data.Finally,NGM generates future traffic based on latent temporal and spatial feature variables.The introduction of the time attention mechanism enhances the framework’s capability to handle irregular traffic data.Graph attention network introduces spatially correlated base station traffic feature information into local traffic prediction,which compensates for missing information in local irregular traffic data.The proposed framework effectively addresses the distributed prediction issues of irregular traffic data.By testing on real world datasets,the proposed framework improves traffic prediction accuracy by 35%compared to other commonly used distributed traffic prediction methods.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018AAA0101005,2018AAA0102404)the Program of the Huawei Technologies Co.Ltd.(FA2018111061SOW12)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61773054)the Youth Research Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Complex Systems Management and Control(20190213)。
文摘Human trajectory prediction is essential and promising in many related applications. This is challenging due to the uncertainty of human behaviors, which can be influenced not only by himself, but also by the surrounding environment. Recent works based on long-short term memory(LSTM) models have brought tremendous improvements on the task of trajectory prediction. However, most of them focus on the spatial influence of humans but ignore the temporal influence. In this paper, we propose a novel spatial-temporal attention(ST-Attention) model,which studies spatial and temporal affinities jointly. Specifically,we introduce an attention mechanism to extract temporal affinity,learning the importance for historical trajectory information at different time instants. To explore spatial affinity, a deep neural network is employed to measure different importance of the neighbors. Experimental results show that our method achieves competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art methods on publicly available datasets.
基金partially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2020YFB2104001)。
文摘The success of intelligent transportation systems relies heavily on accurate traffic prediction,in which how to model the underlying spatial-temporal information from traffic data has come under the spotlight.Most existing frameworks typically utilize separate modules for spatial and temporal correlations modeling.However,this stepwise pattern may limit the effectiveness and efficiency in spatial-temporal feature extraction and cause the overlook of important information in some steps.Furthermore,it is lacking sufficient guidance from prior information while modeling based on a given spatial adjacency graph(e.g.,deriving from the geodesic distance or approximate connectivity),and may not reflect the actual interaction between nodes.To overcome those limitations,our paper proposes a spatial-temporal graph synchronous aggregation(STGSA)model to extract the localized and long-term spatial-temporal dependencies simultaneously.Specifically,a tailored graph aggregation method in the vertex domain is designed to extract spatial and temporal features in one graph convolution process.In each STGSA block,we devise a directed temporal correlation graph to represent the localized and long-term dependencies between nodes,and the potential temporal dependence is further fine-tuned by an adaptive weighting operation.Meanwhile,we construct an elaborated spatial adjacency matrix to represent the road sensor graph by considering both physical distance and node similarity in a datadriven manner.Then,inspired by the multi-head attention mechanism which can jointly emphasize information from different r epresentation subspaces,we construct a multi-stream module based on the STGSA blocks to capture global information.It projects the embedding input repeatedly with multiple different channels.Finally,the predicted values are generated by stacking several multi-stream modules.Extensive experiments are constructed on six real-world datasets,and numerical results show that the proposed STGSA model significantly outperforms the benchmarks.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
基金Funded by State Railway Administration Research Project(No.2023JS007)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52438002)+1 种基金Research and Development Programs for Science and Technology of China Railways Corporation(No.J2023G003)New Cornerstone Science Foundation through the XPLORER PRIZE。
文摘To investigate the influence of coarse aggregate parent rock properties on the elastic modulus of concrete,the mineralogical properties and stress-strain curves of granite and dolomite parent rocks,as well as the strength and elastic modulus of mortar and concrete prepared with mechanism aggregates of the corresponding lithology,and the stress-strain curves of concrete were investigated.In this paper,a coarse aggregate and mortar matrix bonding assumption is proposed,and a prediction model for the elastic modulus of mortar is established by considering the lithology of the mechanism sand and the slurry components.An equivalent coarse aggregate elastic modulus model was established by considering factors such as coarse aggregate particle size,volume fraction,and mortar thickness between coarse aggregates.Based on the elastic modulus of the equivalent coarse aggregate and the remaining mortar,a prediction model for the elastic modulus of the two and three components of concrete in series and then in parallel was established,and the predicted values differed from the measured values within 10%.It is proposed that the coarse aggregate elastic modulus in highstrength concrete is the most critical factor affecting the elastic modulus of concrete,and as the coarse aggregate elastic modulus increases by 27.7%,the concrete elastic modulus increases by 19.5%.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2023YFC3006704National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42171047CAS-CSIRO Partnership Joint Project of 2024,No.177GJHZ2023097MI。
文摘Accurate prediction of flood events is important for flood control and risk management.Machine learning techniques contributed greatly to advances in flood predictions,and existing studies mainly focused on predicting flood resource variables using single or hybrid machine learning techniques.However,class-based flood predictions have rarely been investigated,which can aid in quickly diagnosing comprehensive flood characteristics and proposing targeted management strategies.This study proposed a prediction approach of flood regime metrics and event classes coupling machine learning algorithms with clustering-deduced membership degrees.Five algorithms were adopted for this exploration.Results showed that the class membership degrees accurately determined event classes with class hit rates up to 100%,compared with the four classes clustered from nine regime metrics.The nonlinear algorithms(Multiple Linear Regression,Random Forest,and least squares-Support Vector Machine)outperformed the linear techniques(Multiple Linear Regression and Stepwise Regression)in predicting flood regime metrics.The proposed approach well predicted flood event classes with average class hit rates of 66.0%-85.4%and 47.2%-76.0%in calibration and validation periods,respectively,particularly for the slow and late flood events.The predictive capability of the proposed prediction approach for flood regime metrics and classes was considerably stronger than that of hydrological modeling approach.
基金the funding support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52308340)Chongqing Talent Innovation and Entrepreneurship Demonstration Team Project(Grant No.cstc2024ycjh-bgzxm0012)the Science and Technology Projects supported by China Coal Technology and Engineering Chongqing Design and Research Institute(Group)Co.,Ltd..(Grant No.H20230317)。
文摘Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Regression models and Neural network models,to perform multi-characteristic coupled displacement prediction because they fail to consider landslide creep characteristics.This paper integrates the creep characteristics of landslides with non-linear intelligent algorithms and proposes a dynamic intelligent landslide displacement prediction method based on a combination of the Biological Growth model(BG),Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),and Long ShortTerm Memory Network(LSTM).This prediction approach improves three different biological growth models,thereby effectively extracting landslide creep characteristic parameters.Simultaneously,it integrates external factors(rainfall and reservoir water level)to construct an internal and external comprehensive dataset for data augmentation,which is input into the improved CNN-LSTM model.Thereafter,harnessing the robust feature extraction capabilities and spatial translation invariance of CNN,the model autonomously captures short-term local fluctuation characteristics of landslide displacement,and combines LSTM's efficient handling of long-term nonlinear temporal data to improve prediction performance.An evaluation of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area indicates that BG-CNN-LSTM exhibits high prediction accuracy,excellent generalization capabilities when dealing with various types of landslides.The research provides an innovative approach to achieving the whole-process,realtime,high-precision displacement predictions for multicharacteristic coupled landslides.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFB3400900)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52175373,52205435)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China(No.2022JJ40621)the Innovation Fund of National Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing Engineering Technology Center,China(No.COMACSFGS-2022-1875)。
文摘A new unified constitutive model was developed to predict the two-stage creep-aging(TSCA)behavior of Al-Zn-Mg-Cu alloys.The particular bimodal precipitation feature was analyzed and modeled by considering the primary micro-variables evolution at different temperatures and their interaction.The dislocation density was incorporated into the model to capture the effect of creep deformation on precipitation.Quantitative transmission electron microscopy and experimental data obtained from a previous study were used to calibrate the model.Subsequently,the developed constitutive model was implemented in the finite element(FE)software ABAQUS via the user subroutines for TSCA process simulation and the springback prediction of an integral panel.A TSCA test was performed.The result shows that the maximum radius deviation between the formed plate and the simulation results is less than 0.4 mm,thus validating the effectiveness of the developed constitutive model and FE model.
文摘Background: Pancreatic cancer is one of the most lethal malignancies, with postoperative recurrence severely affecting patient survival and prognosis. This study aims to develop and validate a clinical prediction model for postoperative recurrence in pancreatic cancer patients, incorporating multiple preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors to assist clinical decision-making. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 216 patients who underwent surgical treatment for pancreatic malignancy at the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between January 2015 and January 2023. An independent external validation cohort of 76 patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University was used to validate the model. Seven independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence were identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The model’s performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index) and ROC curves, and its accuracy and clinical value were assessed using calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: The predictive model demonstrated good discriminatory power, with a C-index of 0.72 in the training cohort and 0.66 in the validation cohort. The ROC curves for predicting recurrence at 3, 6, and 12 months postoperatively showed AUC values ranging from 0.72 to 0.83, indicating strong predictive value. Calibration curves and DCA confirmed the model’s accuracy and clinical utility. Conclusion: This study successfully developed and validated a clinical prediction model that incorporates seven independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence in pancreatic cancer. The model provides a useful tool for predicting recurrence risk, aiding in the identification of high-risk patients, and informing clinical decision-making.
基金supported by General Scientific Research Funding of the Science and Technology Development Fund(FDCT)in Macao(No.0150/2022/A)the Faculty Research Grants of Macao University of Science and Technology(No.FRG-22-074-FIE).
文摘With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration prediction system is of great scientific and practical significance for accurate and reliable predictions.This paper proposes a combination of pointinterval prediction system for pollutant concentration prediction by leveraging neural network,meta-heuristic optimization algorithm,and fuzzy theory.Fuzzy information granulation technology is used in data preprocessing to transform numerical sequences into fuzzy particles for comprehensive feature extraction.The golden Jackal optimization algorithm is employed in the optimization stage to fine-tune model hyperparameters.In the prediction stage,an ensemble learning method combines training results frommultiplemodels to obtain final point predictions while also utilizing quantile regression and kernel density estimation methods for interval predictions on the test set.Experimental results demonstrate that the combined model achieves a high goodness of fit coefficient of determination(R^(2))at 99.3% and a maximum difference between prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and benchmark model at 12.6%.This suggests that the integrated learning system proposed in this paper can provide more accurate deterministic predictions as well as reliable uncertainty analysis compared to traditionalmodels,offering practical reference for air quality early warning.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.82220108017,No.82141128,No.82101180)Beijing Natural Science Foundation(No.Z220012)+3 种基金The Capital Health Research and Development of Special(No.2020-1-2052)Science&Technology Project of Beijing Municipal Science&Technology Commission(No.Z201100005520045)Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen(No.SZSM202311018)Beijing Science&Technology Development of TCM(No.BJZYYB-2023-17).
文摘AIM:To explore the relationship between matrix metalloproteinases(MMPs)expression levels in the tumor and the prognosis of uveal melanoma(UM)and to construct prognostic prediction models.METHODS:Transcriptome sequencing data from 17 normal choroid tissues and 53 UM tumor tissues were collected.Based on the differential gene expression levels and their function,MMPs family was selected for establishing risk-score system and prognostic prediction model with machine learning.Tumor microenvironment(TME)analysis was also applied for the impact of immune cell infiltration on prognosis of the disease.RESULTS:Eight MMPs were significantly different expression levels between normal and the tumor tissues.MMP-2 and MMP-28 were selected to construct a risk-score system and divided patients accordingly into high-and low-risk groups.The prediction model based on the risk-score achieved an accuracy of approximately 80%at 1-,3-,and 5-year after diagnosis.Besides,a Nomogram prognostic prediction model which based on risk-score and pathological type(independent prognostic factors after Cox regression analysis)demonstrated good consistency between the predicted outcomes at 1-,3-,and 5-year after diagnosis and the actual prognosis of patients.TME analysis revealed that the high-risk group exhibited higher immune and stromal scores and increased infiltration of tumor-associated macrophages(TAMs)and regulatory T cells compared to the low-risk group.CONCLUSION:Based on MMP-2 and MMP-28 expression levels,our prediction model demonstrates accurate long-term prognosis prediction for UM patients.The aggregation of TAMs and regulatory T cells in the TME of UM may be associated with an unfavorable prognosis.
文摘BACKGROUND Colorectal polyps(CPs)are important precursor lesions of colorectal cancer,and endoscopic surgery remains the primary treatment option.However,the shortterm recurrence rate post-surgery is high,and the risk factors for recurrence remain unknown.AIM To comprehensively explore risk factors for short-term recurrence of CPs after endoscopic surgery and develop a nomogram prediction model.METHODS Overall,362 patients who underwent endoscopic polypectomy between January 2022 and January 2024 at Nanjing Jiangbei Hospital were included.We screened basic demographic data,clinical and polyp characteristics,surgery-related information,and independent risk factors for CPs recurrence using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.The multivariate analysis results were used to construct a nomogram prediction model,internally validated using Bootstrapping,with performance evaluated using area under the curve(AUC),calibration curve,and decision curve analysis.RESULTS CP re-occurred in 166(45.86%)of the 362 patients within 1 year post-surgery.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age(OR=1.04,P=0.002),alcohol consumption(OR=2.07,P=0.012),Helicobacter pylori infection(OR=2.34,P<0.001),polyp number>2(OR=1.98,P=0.005),sessile polyps(OR=2.10,P=0.006),and adenomatous pathological type(OR=3.02,P<0.001)were independent risk factors for post-surgery recurrence.The nomogram prediction model showed good discriminatory(AUC=0.73)and calibrating power,and decision curve analysis showed that the model had good clinical benefit at risk probabilities>20%.CONCLUSION We identified multiple independent risk factors for short-term recurrence after endoscopic surgery.The nomogram prediction model showed a certain degree of differentiation,calibration,and potential clinical applicability.
基金Supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFA0707300)Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U22A20188)+1 种基金General Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51974196)Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China(Grant No.201903D421047)。
文摘The prediction of the rolling force and thickness ratio plays an important role in the development and application of bimetallic composite plates.To analyze the rolling force of the bimetallic composite plate more accurately,a novel hypothesis based on Orowan's theory was proposed.The variation in the thickness of each differential element at different positions was considered to establish the analytical model.According to the characteristics of bimetallic composite plate rolling,the rolling deformation can be divided into forward and backward slip zones.The initial thickness ratio after rolling was predetermined by the thickness ratio before rolling;the rolling force balance of the upper and lower rollers was considered the convergence condition;and the final thickness ratio of the bimetallic composite plate was obtained by iterative calculation.The calculation results of the analytical model were compared with the measured and simulated data.The results showed that the errors in the calculation of the rolling force and thickness ratio were both less than 10%.The analytical model has high precision,meets engineering requirements,and has important reference significance for rolling process optimization and thickness ratio prediction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2242213,U2142213,42305167,42175105)。
文摘Systematic bias is a type of model error that can affect the accuracy of data assimilation and forecasting that must be addressed.An online bias correction scheme called the sequential bias correction scheme(SBCS),was developed using the6 h average bias to correct the systematic bias during model integration.The primary purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the SBCS in the high-resolution China Meteorological Administration Meso-scale(CMA-MESO)numerical weather prediction(NWP)model to reduce the systematic bias and to improve the data assimilation and forecast results through this method.The SBCS is improved upon and applied to the CMA-MESO 3-km model in this study.Four-week sequential data assimilation and forecast experiments,driven by rapid update and cycling(RUC),were conducted for the period from 2–29 May 2022.In terms of the characteristics of systematic bias,both the background and analysis show diurnal bias,and these large biases are affected by complex underlying surfaces(e.g.,oceans,coasts,and mountains).After the application of the SBCS,the results of the data assimilation show that the SBCS can reduce the systematic bias of the background and yield a neutral to slightly positive result for the analysis fields.In addition,the SBCS can reduce forecast errors and improve forecast results,especially for surface variables.The above results indicate that this scheme has good prospects for high-resolution regional NWP models.
基金Supported by the 2024 Yiwu City Research Plan Project,No.24-3-102.
文摘BACKGROUND Rabies is a zoonotic viral disease affecting the central nervous system,caused by the rabies virus,with a case-fatality rate of 100%once symptoms appear.AIM To analyze high-risk factors associated with mental disorders induced by rabies vaccination and to construct a risk prediction model to inform strategies for improving patients’mental health.METHODS Patients who received rabies vaccinations at the Department of Infusion Yiwu Central Hospital between August 2024 and July 2025 were included,totaling 384 cases.Data were collected from medical records and included demographic characteristics(age,gender,occupation),lifestyle habits,and details regarding vaccine type,dosage,and injection site.The incidence of psychiatric disorders following vaccination was assessed using standardized anxiety and depression rating scales.Patients were categorized into two groups based on the presence or absence of anxiety and depression symptoms:The psychiatric disorder group and the non-psychiatric disorder group.Differences between the two groups were compared,and high-risk factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis.A predictive model was then developed based on these factors to evaluate its predictive performance.RESULTS Among the 384 patients who received rabies vaccinations,36 cases(9.38%)were diagnosed with anxiety,52 cases(13.54%)with depression,and 88 cases(22.92%)with either condition.Logistic regression analysis identified the following signi ficant risk factors for psychiatric disorders:Education level of primary school or below,exposure site at the head and neck,exposure classified as grade III,family status of divorced/widowed/unmarried/living alone,number of wounds greater than one,and low awareness of rabies prevention and control(P<0.05).The risk prediction model demonstrated good performance,with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.859,a specificity of 74.42%,and a sensitivity of 93.02%.CONCLUSION In real-world settings,psychiatric disorders following rabies vaccination are relatively common and are associated with factors such as lower education level,higher exposure severity,vulnerable family status,and limited awareness of rabies prevention and control.The developed risk prediction model may aid in early identification of high-risk individuals and support timely clinical intervention.
