The article used general equilibrium model to analyze the change of gross domestic product and industry output affected by water resources policies in Beijing City by using GEMPACK soft tool.The article researches on ...The article used general equilibrium model to analyze the change of gross domestic product and industry output affected by water resources policies in Beijing City by using GEMPACK soft tool.The article researches on rules of water supply and demand,evaluating water resources,building water resources input and output table,establishing water computable general equilibrium model and stimulating water policy.The stimulation gives a scenario that increases water price by 10%.The result shows the following aspects.First,water resources policy infects gross domestic product and industry output in different ways.There are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy. Agriculture industry has the same tendency as water price change and it has more sensitive to water quantity than to water price.For basic energy industries such as oil and chemistry and gas,they show diversity tendency.As to some high water consumer industry such as paper and textile etc.,water resource economic policy can infect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water-saving technology.Waste water and construction and service industries show the same tendency as to water policy.Second,government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic administration.The simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer price change more than expect as to water policy in a free market economic in water industry.So as to a government policy maker,one should be more carefully and prepare suitable forecast and plan to water policy and its negative impact.展开更多
Rising frequency,intensity,and geographic scope of extreme heat profoundly impede global sustainable economic development.However,existing climate econometric models are limited in capturing the spatial processes thro...Rising frequency,intensity,and geographic scope of extreme heat profoundly impede global sustainable economic development.However,existing climate econometric models are limited in capturing the spatial processes through which extreme heat affects the global economy,often resulting in downward-biased estimates of total economic losses.This study develops a novel multi-scale spatio-temporal model that integrates classic multi-level modeling with spatial statistics,explicitly addressing key challenges faced by climate econometrics.A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is derived for model implementation.Using this model,we present the first quantitative assessment of the impacts of extreme heat on global economic production and their scale-dependent spatial processes.Our findings reveal that,at the national scale,economic losses caused by input–output economic linkages initially decline slowly,then drop sharply with increasing connectivity,with an inflection point around 0.1.When accounting for spatial propagation effects,a 1℃increase in extreme heat intensity leads to an average loss of 2.54%[0.90%,4.19%]of annual GDP per capita—substantially higher than estimates assuming economic losses are locally confined.Moreover,the economic impacts of extreme heat exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity,with positive marginal effects detected in colder regions and negative effects in warmer regions,with a turning point around 33.7℃.This study offers a new methodology to evaluate the impact of climate change from a multi-scale and spatial perspective.展开更多
基金Project supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant no.40730632/40671035)the Special Fund of Ministry of Science and Technology,China(Grant no. 2006DFA21890)the Key Project of International Cooperation in CAS (Grant no.GJHZ06)
文摘The article used general equilibrium model to analyze the change of gross domestic product and industry output affected by water resources policies in Beijing City by using GEMPACK soft tool.The article researches on rules of water supply and demand,evaluating water resources,building water resources input and output table,establishing water computable general equilibrium model and stimulating water policy.The stimulation gives a scenario that increases water price by 10%.The result shows the following aspects.First,water resources policy infects gross domestic product and industry output in different ways.There are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy. Agriculture industry has the same tendency as water price change and it has more sensitive to water quantity than to water price.For basic energy industries such as oil and chemistry and gas,they show diversity tendency.As to some high water consumer industry such as paper and textile etc.,water resource economic policy can infect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water-saving technology.Waste water and construction and service industries show the same tendency as to water policy.Second,government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic administration.The simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer price change more than expect as to water policy in a free market economic in water industry.So as to a government policy maker,one should be more carefully and prepare suitable forecast and plan to water policy and its negative impact.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42471467 and 42293270).
文摘Rising frequency,intensity,and geographic scope of extreme heat profoundly impede global sustainable economic development.However,existing climate econometric models are limited in capturing the spatial processes through which extreme heat affects the global economy,often resulting in downward-biased estimates of total economic losses.This study develops a novel multi-scale spatio-temporal model that integrates classic multi-level modeling with spatial statistics,explicitly addressing key challenges faced by climate econometrics.A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is derived for model implementation.Using this model,we present the first quantitative assessment of the impacts of extreme heat on global economic production and their scale-dependent spatial processes.Our findings reveal that,at the national scale,economic losses caused by input–output economic linkages initially decline slowly,then drop sharply with increasing connectivity,with an inflection point around 0.1.When accounting for spatial propagation effects,a 1℃increase in extreme heat intensity leads to an average loss of 2.54%[0.90%,4.19%]of annual GDP per capita—substantially higher than estimates assuming economic losses are locally confined.Moreover,the economic impacts of extreme heat exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity,with positive marginal effects detected in colder regions and negative effects in warmer regions,with a turning point around 33.7℃.This study offers a new methodology to evaluate the impact of climate change from a multi-scale and spatial perspective.
