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Spatial Expression of Assembly Geometric Errors for Multi-axis Machine Tool Based on Kinematic Jacobian-Torsor Model 被引量:5
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作者 Ang Tian Shun Liu +2 位作者 Kun Chen Wei Mo Sun Jin 《Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2023年第2期234-248,共15页
Assembly geometric error as a part of the machine tool system errors has a significant influence on the machining accuracy of the multi-axis machine tool.And it cannot be eliminated due to the error propagation of com... Assembly geometric error as a part of the machine tool system errors has a significant influence on the machining accuracy of the multi-axis machine tool.And it cannot be eliminated due to the error propagation of components in the assembly process,which is generally non-uniformly distributed in the whole working space.A comprehensive expression model for assembly geometric error is greatly helpful for machining quality control of machine tools to meet the demand for machining accuracy in practice.However,the expression ranges based on the standard quasistatic expression model for assembly geometric errors are far less than those needed in the whole working space of the multi-axis machine tool.To address this issue,a modeling methodology based on the Jacobian-Torsor model is proposed to describe the spatially distributed geometric errors.Firstly,an improved kinematic Jacobian-Torsor model is developed to describe the relative movements such as translation and rotation motion between assembly bodies,respectively.Furthermore,based on the proposed kinematic Jacobian-Torsor model,a spatial expression of geometric errors for the multi-axis machine tool is given.And simulation and experimental verification are taken with the investigation of the spatial distribution of geometric errors on five four-axis machine tools.The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed kinematic Jacobian-Torsor model in dealing with the spatial expression of assembly geometric errors. 展开更多
关键词 Geometric error Machine tool Jacobian-Torsor model TOLERANCE spatial expression
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Spatial Modeling of COVID-19 Occurrence and Vaccination Rate across Counties in Ohio State from Jan. 2020 to April 2023
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作者 Olawale Oluwafemi Oluwaseun Ibukun +3 位作者 Yaw Kwarteng Kehinde Adebowale Yahaya Danjuma Samson Mela 《Journal of Geographic Information System》 2025年第1期80-96,共17页
The study aims to investigate county-level variations of the COVID-19 disease and vaccination rate. The COVID-19 data was acquired from usafact.org, and the vaccination records were acquired from the Ohio vaccination ... The study aims to investigate county-level variations of the COVID-19 disease and vaccination rate. The COVID-19 data was acquired from usafact.org, and the vaccination records were acquired from the Ohio vaccination tracker dashboard. GIS-based exploratory analysis was conducted to select four variables (poverty, black race, population density, and vaccination) to explain COVID-19 occurrence during the study period. Consequently, spatial statistical techniques such as Moran’s I, Hot Spot Analysis, Spatial Lag Model (SLM), and Spatial Error Model (SEM) were used to explain the COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate across the 88 counties in Ohio. The result of the Local Moran’s I analysis reveals that the epicenters of COVID-19 and vaccination followed the same patterns. Indeed, counties like Summit, Franklin, Fairfield, Hamilton, and Medina were categorized as epicenters for both COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate. The SEM seems to be the best model for both COVID-19 and vaccination rates, with R2 values of 0.68 and 0.70, respectively. The GWR analysis proves to be better than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), and the distribution of R2 in the GWR is uneven throughout the study area for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. Some counties have a high R2 of up to 0.70 for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. The outcomes of the regression analyses show that the SEM models can explain 68% - 70% of COVID-19 cases and vaccination across the entire counties within the study period. COVID-19 cases and vaccination rates exhibited significant positive associations with black race and poverty throughout the study area. 展开更多
关键词 COVID-19 Prevalence COVID-19 Vaccination OHIO spatial lag model spatial error model
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基于Hybrid Model的浙江省太阳总辐射估算及其时空分布特征
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作者 顾婷婷 潘娅英 张加易 《气象科学》 2025年第2期176-181,共6页
利用浙江省两个辐射站的观测资料,对地表太阳辐射模型Hybrid Model在浙江省的适用性进行评估分析。在此基础上,利用Hybrid Model重建浙江省71个站点1971—2020年的地表太阳辐射日数据集,并分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:Hybrid Model模... 利用浙江省两个辐射站的观测资料,对地表太阳辐射模型Hybrid Model在浙江省的适用性进行评估分析。在此基础上,利用Hybrid Model重建浙江省71个站点1971—2020年的地表太阳辐射日数据集,并分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:Hybrid Model模拟效果良好,和A-P模型计算结果进行对比,杭州站的平均误差、均方根误差、平均绝对百分比误差分别为2.01 MJ·m^(-2)、2.69 MJ·m^(-2)和18.02%,而洪家站的平均误差、均方根误差、平均绝对百分比误差分别为1.41 MJ·m^(-2)、1.85 MJ·m^(-2)和11.56%,误差均低于A-P模型,且Hybrid Model在各月模拟的误差波动较小。浙江省近50 a平均地表总辐射在3733~5060 MJ·m^(-2),高值区主要位于浙北平原及滨海岛屿地区。1971—2020年浙江省太阳总辐射呈明显减少的趋势,气候倾向率为-72 MJ·m^(-2)·(10 a)^(-1),并在1980s初和2000年中期发生了突变减少。 展开更多
关键词 Hybrid model 太阳总辐射 误差分析 时空分布
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Modeling of Spatial Distributions of Farmland Density and Its Temporal Change Using Geographically Weighted Regression Model 被引量:2
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作者 ZHANG Haitao GUO Long +3 位作者 CHEN Jiaying FU Peihong GU Jianli LIAO Guangyu 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2014年第2期191-204,共14页
This study used spatial autoregression(SAR)model and geographically weighted regression(GWR)model to model the spatial patterns of farmland density and its temporal change in Gucheng County,Hubei Province,China in 199... This study used spatial autoregression(SAR)model and geographically weighted regression(GWR)model to model the spatial patterns of farmland density and its temporal change in Gucheng County,Hubei Province,China in 1999 and 2009,and discussed the difference between global and local spatial autocorrelations in terms of spatial heterogeneity and non-stationarity.Results showed that strong spatial positive correlations existed in the spatial distributions of farmland density,its temporal change and the driving factors,and the coefficients of spatial autocorrelations decreased as the spatial lag distance increased.SAR models revealed the global spatial relations between dependent and independent variables,while the GWR model showed the spatially varying fitting degree and local weighting coefficients of driving factors and farmland indices(i.e.,farmland density and temporal change).The GWR model has smooth process when constructing the farmland spatial model.The coefficients of GWR model can show the accurate influence degrees of different driving factors on the farmland at different geographical locations.The performance indices of GWR model showed that GWR model produced more accurate simulation results than other models at different times,and the improvement precision of GWR model was obvious.The global and local farmland models used in this study showed different characteristics in the spatial distributions of farmland indices at different scales,which may provide the theoretical basis for farmland protection from the influence of different driving factors. 展开更多
关键词 spatial lag model spatial error model geographically weighted regression model global spatial autocorrelation local spatial aurocorrelation
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Impact of ionospheric irregularity on SBAS integrity:spatial threat modeling and improvement 被引量:2
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作者 BAO Junjie LI Rui +1 位作者 LIU Pan HUANG Zhigang 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2018年第5期908-917,共10页
The ionosphere, as the largest and least predictable error source, its behavior cannot be observed at all places simultaneously. The confidence bound, called the grid ionospheric vertical error(GIVE), can only be dete... The ionosphere, as the largest and least predictable error source, its behavior cannot be observed at all places simultaneously. The confidence bound, called the grid ionospheric vertical error(GIVE), can only be determined with the aid of a threat model which is used to restrict the expected ionospheric behavior. However, the spatial threat model at present widespread used, which is based on fit radius and relative centroid metric(RCM), is too conservative or the resulting GIVEs will be too large and will reduce the availability of satellite-based augmentation system(SBAS). In this paper, layered two-dimensional parameters, the vertical direction double RCMs, are introduced based on the spatial variability of the ionosphere. Comparing with the traditional threat model, the experimental results show that the user ionospheric vertical error(UIVE) average reduction rate reaches 16%. And the 95% protection level of conterminous United States(CONUS) is 28%, even under disturbed days, which reaches about 5% reduction rates.The results show that the system service performance has been improved better. 展开更多
关键词 ionospheric delay spatial threat model relative centroid metric(RCM) user ionospheric vertical error(UIVE)
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Positional Error Model of Line Segments with Modeling and Measuring Errors Using Brownian Bridge 被引量:1
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作者 Xiaohua TONG Lejingyi ZHOU Yanmin JIN 《Journal of Geodesy and Geoinformation Science》 CSCD 2023年第2期1-10,共10页
Spatial linear features are often represented as a series of line segments joined by measured endpoints in surveying and geographic information science.There are not only the measuring errors of the endpoints but also... Spatial linear features are often represented as a series of line segments joined by measured endpoints in surveying and geographic information science.There are not only the measuring errors of the endpoints but also the modeling errors between the line segments and the actual geographical features.This paper presents a Brownian bridge error model for line segments combining both the modeling and measuring errors.First,the Brownian bridge is used to establish the position distribution of the actual geographic feature represented by the line segment.Second,an error propagation model with the constraints of the measuring error distribution of the endpoints is proposed.Third,a comprehensive error band of the line segment is constructed,wherein both the modeling and measuring errors are contained.The proposed error model can be used to evaluate line segments’overall accuracy and trustability influenced by modeling and measuring errors,and provides a comprehensive quality indicator for the geospatial data. 展开更多
关键词 spatial data line segment modeling error measuring error Brownian bridge
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Resolution performance analysis of cumulants-based rank reduction estimator in presence of unexpected modeling errors
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作者 王鼎 吴瑛 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2013年第11期3116-3130,共15页
Compared to the rank reduction estimator (RARE) based on second-order statistics (called SOS-RARE), the RARE employing fourth-order cumulants (referred to as FOC-RARE) is capable of dealing with more sources and... Compared to the rank reduction estimator (RARE) based on second-order statistics (called SOS-RARE), the RARE employing fourth-order cumulants (referred to as FOC-RARE) is capable of dealing with more sources and mitigating the negative influences of the Gaussian colored noise. However, in the presence of unexpected modeling errors, the resolution behavior of the FOC-RARE also deteriorate significantly as SOS-RARE, even for a known array covariance matrix. For this reason, the angle resolution capability of the FOC-RARE was theoretically analyzed. Firstly, the explicit formula for the mathematical expectation of the FOC-RARE spatial spectrum was derived through the second-order perturbation analysis method. Then, with the assumption that the unexpected modeling errors were drawn from complex circular Gaussian distribution, the theoretical formulas for the angle resolution probability of the FOC-RARE were presented. Numerical experiments validate our analytical results and demonstrate that the FOC-RARE has higher robustness to the unexpected modeling en'ors than that of the SOS-RARE from the resolution point of view. 展开更多
关键词 performance analysis rank reduction estimator (RARE) fourth-order cumulants (FOC) spatial spectrum angle resolution probability unexpected modeling errors
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空间面板数据模型BootstrapLM-Error检验研究 被引量:5
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作者 任通先 龙志和 陈青青 《统计研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2015年第5期91-96,共6页
在误差项不服从经典分布的情形下,面板数据模型常用的空间相关性检验存在较大的偏差。本文将FDB方法引入空间面板数据模型的空间相关性检验,构建Bootstrap LM检验统计量,并通过Monte Carlo模拟实验,从水平扭曲和功效两个方面研究误差项... 在误差项不服从经典分布的情形下,面板数据模型常用的空间相关性检验存在较大的偏差。本文将FDB方法引入空间面板数据模型的空间相关性检验,构建Bootstrap LM检验统计量,并通过Monte Carlo模拟实验,从水平扭曲和功效两个方面研究误差项存在正态分布、异方差、时间序列相关等情形下,空间面板数据模型Bootstrap LM检验的有效性。Monte Carlo模拟实验结果表明,空间面板数据模型渐近LM-Error检验在误差项不服从经典正态分布时,存在较大的水平扭曲,FDB LM-Error检验则在基本不损失检验功效的前提下,有效矫正渐近检验的水平扭曲,是空间面板数据模型空间相关性LM检验更为有效的方法。 展开更多
关键词 空间面板数据模型 BOOTSTRAP方法 LM—error检验 MONTE CARLO模拟
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Empirical Likelihood for Autoregressive Models with Spatial Errors
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作者 Ying-hua LI Yong-song QIN 《Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica》 2025年第3期775-796,共22页
In this article,we study the empirical likelihood(EL)method for autoregressive models with spatial errors.The EL ratio statistics are constructed for the parameters of the models.It is shown that the limiting distribu... In this article,we study the empirical likelihood(EL)method for autoregressive models with spatial errors.The EL ratio statistics are constructed for the parameters of the models.It is shown that the limiting distributions of the EL ratio statistics are chi-square distributions,which are used to construct confidence intervals for the parameters of the models.A simulation study is conducted to compare the performances of the EL based and the normal approximation(NA)based confidence intervals.Simulation results show that the confidence intervals based on EL are superior to the NA based confidence intervals. 展开更多
关键词 autoregressive model spatial error empirical likelihood confidence region
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Spatial Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of Cold Storage in China 被引量:7
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作者 LI Jinfeng XU Haicheng +2 位作者 LIU Wanwan WANG Dongfang ZHOU Shuang 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第3期505-515,共11页
Cold storage is the vital infrastructure of cold chain logistics. In this study, we analyzed the spatial pattern evolution characteristics, spatial autocorrelation and influencing factors of cold storage in China by u... Cold storage is the vital infrastructure of cold chain logistics. In this study, we analyzed the spatial pattern evolution characteristics, spatial autocorrelation and influencing factors of cold storage in China by using kernel density estimation(KDE), spatial autocorrelation analysis(SAA), and spatial error model(SEM). Results showed that: 1) the spatial distribution of cold storage in China is unbalanced, and has evolved from ‘one core’ to ‘one core and many spots’, that is, ‘one core’ refers to the Bohai Rim region mainly including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Liaoning regions, and ‘many spots’ mainly include the high-density areas such as Shanghai, Fuzhou, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Hefei, Wuhan, ürümqi. 2) The distribution of cold storage has significant global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation, and the ‘High-High’ cluster area is the most stable, mainly concentrated in the Bohai Rim;the ‘Low-Low’ cluster area is grouped in the southern China. 3) Economic development level, population density, traffic accessibility, temperature and land price, all affect the location choice of cold storage in varying degrees, while the impact of market demand on it is not explicit. 展开更多
关键词 cold storage spatial pattern evolution kernel density estimation(KDE) spatial autocorrelation analysis(SAA) spatial error model(SEM) China
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T=S Model to Simulate Regional Economic Development
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作者 Wang Qing, Chen Guo-jie, Zhang Yu, Chen YongInstitute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, China 《Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences》 CAS 2003年第03B期893-896,共4页
This paper proposes a mechanism theory on regional development by using a modified Logistic model. It reveals regional evolution is an integration of fluctuation in temporal dimension and disparity in spatial dimensio... This paper proposes a mechanism theory on regional development by using a modified Logistic model. It reveals regional evolution is an integration of fluctuation in temporal dimension and disparity in spatial dimension. T = S model is established by using Logistic model to simulate the growth of per capita GDP in China from 1990 to 1999. The result shows that T=S model accurately simulates the tracks of economic growth. 展开更多
关键词 Logistic model temporal & spatial model SIMULATION lag time effect economic growth
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数字经济对城乡融合发展的空间效应分析 被引量:4
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作者 赵翠萍 许永生 张颖 《农业现代化研究》 北大核心 2025年第1期33-45,共13页
城乡融合是实现乡村振兴和共同富裕的重要举措,数字经济的蓬勃发展为实现城乡融合提供了有效手段。本文基于2013—2022年我国30个省级行政区面板数据,采用熵值法测度了数字经济与城乡融合发展水平,对数字经济发展和城乡融合发展水平进... 城乡融合是实现乡村振兴和共同富裕的重要举措,数字经济的蓬勃发展为实现城乡融合提供了有效手段。本文基于2013—2022年我国30个省级行政区面板数据,采用熵值法测度了数字经济与城乡融合发展水平,对数字经济发展和城乡融合发展水平进行时空演变分析,采用空间滞后模型分析了数字经济对城乡融合的影响及其空间效应。结果表明:1)数字经济对城乡融合发展存在显著的促进作用;2)数字经济不仅促进了本地城乡融合的进程,也对邻近地区的城乡融合产生了正向的空间溢出效应;3)数字经济对不同地区城乡融合的影响存在区域异质性,对东部和西部地区的促进效果显著,而中部地区并未通过显著性检验。基于此,本文建议推动数字经济发展,利用数字化手段加速城乡融合进程;促进区域间技术合作与共享,发挥数字经济的辐射带动作用;因地制宜出台数字经济发展政策。 展开更多
关键词 数字经济 城乡融合发展 空间滞后模型 空间效应 溢出效应
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生产性服务业集聚对碳生产率的空间溢出效应 被引量:2
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作者 周娟美 梁媛 《生态经济》 北大核心 2025年第2期45-53,共9页
为探究生产性服务业集聚能否成为解决“稳增长、促减排”两难困境的良方,论文基于2009—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据,构建中介与空间效应模型,探讨生产性服务业集聚与碳生产率的影响机制和时空特征并进行空间溢出效应分析。结果表明:... 为探究生产性服务业集聚能否成为解决“稳增长、促减排”两难困境的良方,论文基于2009—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据,构建中介与空间效应模型,探讨生产性服务业集聚与碳生产率的影响机制和时空特征并进行空间溢出效应分析。结果表明:生产性服务业集聚显著提高碳生产率并存在异质性特征,其促进作用自东部到西部逐渐显著,高端生产性服务业集聚更能推动碳生产率发展;科技创新在生产性服务业集聚影响碳生产率过程中发挥中介作用;本地生产性服务业集聚通过辐射效应对邻近地区碳生产率水平产生正向空间溢出效应,有助于形成地区间绿色协调发展的空间格局。 展开更多
关键词 生产性服务业集聚 科技创新 碳生产率 时空演化 空间滞后模型
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黄河流域城市经济韧性时空分异及影响因素研究 被引量:3
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作者 赵玲 周鑫玥 《西安财经大学学报》 2025年第2期93-105,共13页
为把握地级市尺度下黄河流域城市经济韧性的时空格局及动态演进趋势,促进黄河流域高质量发展,文章基于2010—2021年黄河流域76个地级市单元的面板数据,借助全局趋势分析、标准差椭圆、Moran’s I指数、Kernel密度等方法揭示黄河流域城... 为把握地级市尺度下黄河流域城市经济韧性的时空格局及动态演进趋势,促进黄河流域高质量发展,文章基于2010—2021年黄河流域76个地级市单元的面板数据,借助全局趋势分析、标准差椭圆、Moran’s I指数、Kernel密度等方法揭示黄河流域城市经济韧性的时空演变特征及动态演进趋势,并进一步采用SEM模型对黄河流域城市经济韧性的影响因素进行分解。结果表明:黄河流域城市经济韧性水平整体呈上升趋势,且研究期内下游城市的经济韧性水平均高于上游、中游城市;低经济韧性水平城市具有连片式分布的特点;上游、下游地区城市经济韧性水平的区域内差异具有扩大的趋势,中游地区城市区域内差异具有先缩小后扩大特征。黄河流域城市经济韧性的空间格局在东西方向呈现“U”型分布,而在南北方向呈倒“U”型分布,且重心略向西南方向移动;人力资本水平、城市创新能力、产业结构优化、城市收入水平对黄河流域城市经济韧性水平存在显著正向影响,城镇化及市场规模呈负向影响。 展开更多
关键词 黄河流域 城市经济 经济韧性 空间误差模型
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流通业数字化对国内国际双循环联动发展水平的影响研究
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作者 王三兴 姚若涵 《价格月刊》 北大核心 2025年第11期13-24,共12页
在构建新发展格局的进程中,流通业数字化转型具有重要的现实意义。基于2010—2022年中国省级面板数据,实证检验流通业数字化对双循环联动发展的影响机制与空间溢出效应。实证结果表明,流通业数字化水平的提升能显著促进双循环联动发展... 在构建新发展格局的进程中,流通业数字化转型具有重要的现实意义。基于2010—2022年中国省级面板数据,实证检验流通业数字化对双循环联动发展的影响机制与空间溢出效应。实证结果表明,流通业数字化水平的提升能显著促进双循环联动发展。从影响机制看,流通业数字化通过提升流通业效率、提升产品市场化水平和扩大消费规模对双循环联动发展产生正向影响,且主要体现在中部、西部和非长江经济带等地区。空间滞后模型的回归结果揭示了省份的双循环联动发展具有溢出效应,且省份的流通业数字化对相邻省份的双循环联动发展水平也具有显著的正向作用。因此,提升流通业数字化水平、深化市场化改革和着力扩大内需均是推动双循环联动发展的关键。 展开更多
关键词 双循环 流通业数字化 流通业效率 统一大市场 空间滞后模型
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农村数字化对农业生态效率的影响机制研究——基于Tobit模型
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作者 笪玲 李贞 《成都行政学院学报》 2025年第6期30-48,117,118,共21页
农村数字化更迭着农村生产、生活方式,也为农业生态效率提升开辟了新路径。基于2011—2022年中国省级面板数据,检验农村数字化及其各个维度对农业生态效率的影响、作用机制、环境规制的调节作用及空间效应。结果表明:研究期内,中国农业... 农村数字化更迭着农村生产、生活方式,也为农业生态效率提升开辟了新路径。基于2011—2022年中国省级面板数据,检验农村数字化及其各个维度对农业生态效率的影响、作用机制、环境规制的调节作用及空间效应。结果表明:研究期内,中国农业生态效率呈现波动上升态势,农村数字化水平除2020年外持续提升,其中数字基础设施和产业发展尤为迅速;农村数字化显著促进农业生态效率提升,且在粮食主销区效果更突出,环境规制强化了这一促进作用;规模经营和技术带动是农村数字化提升地区农业生态效率的重要路径机制;农村数字化对农业生态效率的影响具有显著溢出效应。基于此,文章提出以下政策建议:合理推进农业规模经营,加强农业科技创新投资;因地制宜推动农村数字化发展,实现农村数字化多维度协同进步;通过环境规制进一步发挥农村数字化对农业生态效率的正向影响;完善区域合作机制,扩大农村数字化对农业生态效率的正向溢出效应。 展开更多
关键词 农村数字化 农业生态效率 TOBIT模型 空间滞后模型
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高等教育与经济增长的影响机制研究
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作者 傅书勇 翟金龙 孙淑军 《科技和产业》 2025年第14期255-260,共6页
旨在研究高等教育对经济增长作用机制。基于2010—2021年中国30个省份(因数据缺失,为包含西藏地区和港澳台地区)面板数据,首先利用中介效应探究技术创新在高等教育影响机制中的作用,其次利用空间误差模型对高等教育与经济增长之间关系... 旨在研究高等教育对经济增长作用机制。基于2010—2021年中国30个省份(因数据缺失,为包含西藏地区和港澳台地区)面板数据,首先利用中介效应探究技术创新在高等教育影响机制中的作用,其次利用空间误差模型对高等教育与经济增长之间关系进行实证分析。结果表明,中介效应检验中各变量均通过显著性检验;空间视角上,技术创新对经济增长的作用存在区域差异。因此,技术创新的中介效应是高等教育对经济增长的作用路径。 展开更多
关键词 高等教育 经济增长 技术创新 中介效应 空间误差模型
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中国创业持续性的时空特征及其影响因素 被引量:1
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作者 陈广平 王琛 刘志高 《地理科学进展》 北大核心 2025年第3期460-477,共18页
创业持续性研究对于诊断区域经济可持续发展能力和识别空间失衡问题具有重要意义。论文基于1989-2022年长时间序列城市尺度的创业数据,利用皮尔逊相关系数、核密度估计等方法探究了中国261个城市创业率的持续时间跨度、强度及时空演化... 创业持续性研究对于诊断区域经济可持续发展能力和识别空间失衡问题具有重要意义。论文基于1989-2022年长时间序列城市尺度的创业数据,利用皮尔逊相关系数、核密度估计等方法探究了中国261个城市创业率的持续时间跨度、强度及时空演化特征。通过构建区域的制度性、历史性、结构性和先天性因素四维度分析框架,采用空间杜宾误差模型,探讨了长期以来持续影响中国城市创业率的因素及其空间效应。研究发现:(1)观测期内中国城市创业活动具有一定程度的持续性,并且存在4个明显的持续时间段,每个持续时段的时间跨度为8~15年;(2) 1989年以来,中国城市创业持续性呈减弱趋势,其中2008—2013年的创业持续性最强,超过一半(54.02%)城市的创业率等级保持不变;(3)中国创业持续性现象主要发生在低创业水平的城市;(4)长期正向作用于城市创业率的因素包括城市行政等级、创业文化、历史重大基础设施和沿海性,而历史人口密度和地形起伏度是长期抑制地区创业水平的重要因素,随着时间推移,知识储备量和国有企业数量占比的作用效果由正转负。研究结论为制定区域经济协调可持续发展政策提供了理论支撑。 展开更多
关键词 创业活动 持续性 路径依赖 空间依赖 空间杜宾误差模型
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多时空尺度下初级生产力对鲣种群丰度动态变化的时滞影响
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作者 王禹程 周成 +3 位作者 郭绍健 胡媛媛 倪泳一 吴峰 《海洋渔业》 北大核心 2025年第2期163-174,共12页
鲣(Katsuwonus pelamis)是中西太平洋金枪鱼围网渔业的主要捕捞对象,其种群丰度变化受海洋环境及其滞后效应影响,探究鲣初级生产力与种群丰度的时滞关系有助于理解其生态驱动机制。利用2013—2020年中国金枪鱼围网渔船渔捞日志数据,基... 鲣(Katsuwonus pelamis)是中西太平洋金枪鱼围网渔业的主要捕捞对象,其种群丰度变化受海洋环境及其滞后效应影响,探究鲣初级生产力与种群丰度的时滞关系有助于理解其生态驱动机制。利用2013—2020年中国金枪鱼围网渔船渔捞日志数据,基于捕捞产量(catch)、单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)和捕捞网次(effort)3种丰度指标与叶绿素a浓度(chl-a)之间分别建立了初级生产力-种群丰度的分布滞后线性模型,结果显示:1)chl-a和3种丰度指标均存在显著滞后关系;2)选择1 d、2 d、3 d、4 d和5 d 5种时间尺度时,鲣种群丰度变动响应chl-a的滞后时间无明显变化规律;3)选择0.25°×0.25°、0.5°×0.5°、1°×1°、2°×2°、3°×3°、4°×4°和5°×5°的空间尺度时,初级生产力对鲣种群丰度影响的滞后时间区间分别为0 d、0~2 d、1~4 d、2~6 d、3~7 d、5~10 d和7~11 d。结果表明,初级生产力对鲣种群丰度变化存在显著时滞影响,且滞后时间与区域空间大小相关。 展开更多
关键词 初级生产力 多时空尺度 时滞影响 分布滞后线性模型
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