The proposal of carbon neutrality target makes decarbonization and hydrogenation typical features of future energy development in China.With a wide range of application scenarios,hydrogen energy will experience rapid ...The proposal of carbon neutrality target makes decarbonization and hydrogenation typical features of future energy development in China.With a wide range of application scenarios,hydrogen energy will experience rapid growth in production and consumption.To formulate an effective hydrogen energy development strategy for the future of China,this study employs the departmental scenario analysis method to calculate and evaluate the future consumption of hydrogen energy in China’s heavy industry,transportation,electricity,and other related fields.Multidimensional technical parameters are selected and predicted accurately and reliably in combination with different development scenarios.The findings indicate that the period from 2030 to 2050 will enjoy rapid development of hydrogen energy,having an average annual growth rate of 2%to 4%.The technological progress and breakthroughs scenario has the greatest potential for hydrogen demand scale among the four development scenarios.Under this scenario,the total demand for hydrogen energy is expected to reach 446.37Mt in 2060.Thetransportation sector will be the sector with the greatest potential for hydrogen deployment growth from 2023 to 2060,which is expected to rise from 0.038Mt to about 163.18Mt,with the ambitious growth in the future.Additionally,hydrogen energy has a considerable development potential in the steel sector,and the trend of de-refueling coke by hydrogenation in this sector will be imperative for this energy-intensive industries.展开更多
China is physically and socio-economically susceptible to global warming-derived high temperature extremes because of its vast area and high urban population density. This article presents a scenario-based analysis me...China is physically and socio-economically susceptible to global warming-derived high temperature extremes because of its vast area and high urban population density. This article presents a scenario-based analysis method for high temperature extremes aimed at illustrating the latter＇s hazardous potential and exposure across China. Based on probability analysis, high temperature extreme scenarios with return periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years were designed, with a high temperature hazard index calculated by integrating two differen- tially-weighted extreme temperature indices （maximum temperature and high temperature days）. To perform the exposure analysis, a land use map was employed to determine the spatial distribution of susceptible human activities under the different scenarios. The results indicate that there are two heat-prone regions and a sub-hotspot occupying a relatively small land area. However, the societal and economic consequences of such an environmental im- pact upon the North China Plain and middle/lower Yangtze River Basin would be substantial due to the concentration of human activities in these areas.展开更多
A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Prov...A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. Model validation indicated that soil organic carbon dynamics can be simulated from the weather variables of temperature, sunlight and precipitation, soil clay content and bulk density, grain yield of previous crops, qualities and quantities of the added organic matter. Model simulation in general a-greed with the measurements. The comparison between computed and measured resulted in correlation coefficient γ2 values of 0.9291* * * (n= 48) and 0.6431* * (n = 65) for the two experiments, respectively. Model prediction under three scenarios of no additional organic matter input, with an annual incorporation of rice and wheat straw at rates of 6.75t/ha and 9.0t/ha suggested that the soil organic carbon in Wanshi Township of Yixing City would be from an initial value of 7.85g/kg in 1983 to 6.30g/kg, 11.42g/kg and 13g/kg in 2014, respectively. Consequently, total nitrogen content of the soil was predicted to be respectively 0.49g/kg, 0.89g/kg and 1.01g/kg under the three scenarios.展开更多
Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of ...Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory(NFI). We included a businessas-usual(BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well(AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect(mostly bark beetle)damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition(storm: >-11%, beetle: >-37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased(e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.展开更多
The framework of fatigue factors is constructed to reduce the number of maritime accidents caused by human fatigue.Based on the study of maritime human fatigue,by screening and classifying it,there are 15 fatigue fact...The framework of fatigue factors is constructed to reduce the number of maritime accidents caused by human fatigue.Based on the study of maritime human fatigue,by screening and classifying it,there are 15 fatigue factors,which can be classified into 4 types:sleep,rest and rhythm;work factors;personal conditions;environmental factors.These factors are regarded as the variables for constructing scenarios.The importance,uncertainty,influence and dependence of variables and variable pairs were assessed by using morphological analysis,quantitative scales and correlation matrices.Ship movement and workload are selected as the two key variables,which are regarded as the axes of generating scenarios.One of the scenarios is selected as the typical scenario to illustrate the relationship between the causes of fatigue.Then,the analysis framework is constructed according to the fatigue factors relationship,and several potential solutions are proposed,which include the development of foresighted and flexible work plans,and the application of wearable facilities to improve monitoring and assessment systems.The proposed framework lays a theoretical foundation for studying maritime human fatigue,and scenario analysis can provide an effective strategy for reducing crews'fatigue.展开更多
This paper takes the climate change and low carbon economy development as the study background, based on the analysis of energy demand and carbon emissions status, which is aimed to provide the low carbon development ...This paper takes the climate change and low carbon economy development as the study background, based on the analysis of energy demand and carbon emissions status, which is aimed to provide the low carbon development path in Chinese cities. The method of scenario analysis can be used to predict long-term strategy for the uncertainty future development, and it was introduced to the field of social forecasting and public policy research, such as the environmental strategic planning, policy analysis, and support of decision in resource management, which can be used to explore the possible development trend and target of the results from the macro perspective. Scenario analysis has been gradually applied to the study area on low carbon economy, energy forecasting and other fields in recent years, and there have been many research results in different aspects. This paper takes the scenario analysis as basic study theory, spreading out the present situation of its application in low carbon city and some issues that need further study. As a tool for predicting the future development in low carbon city, the method of scenario analysis has been providing a powerful reference for policies and their executants.展开更多
Adipic acid is an important petrochemical product,and its production process emits a high concentration of greenhouse gas N_2 O.This paper aims to provide quantitative references for relevant authorities to formulate ...Adipic acid is an important petrochemical product,and its production process emits a high concentration of greenhouse gas N_2 O.This paper aims to provide quantitative references for relevant authorities to formulate greenhouse gas control roadmaps.The forecasting method of this paper is consistent with the published national inventory in terms of caliber.Based on the N_2 O abatement technical parameters of adipic acid and the production trend,this paper combines the scenario analysis and provides a measurement of comprehensive N_2 O abatement effect of the entire industry in China.Four future scenarios are assumed.The baseline scenario(BAUS) is a frozen scenario.Three emission abatement scenarios(ANAS,SNAS,and ENAS) are assumed under different strength of abatement driving parameters.The results show that China's adipic acid production process can achieve increasingly significant N_2 O emission abatement effects.Compared to the baseline scenario,by 2030,the N_2 O emission abatements of the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 207-399 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 32.5%-62.6%.By 2050,the N_2 O emission abatements for the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 387-540 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 71.4%-99.6%.展开更多
This study introduces an advanced community-level resilience analysis methodology integrating 3D fragility sur-faces for combined successive earthquake-tsunami hazard and analysis.The methodology facilitates comprehen...This study introduces an advanced community-level resilience analysis methodology integrating 3D fragility sur-faces for combined successive earthquake-tsunami hazard and analysis.The methodology facilitates comprehen-sive evaluations of spatial damage,economic loss,and risk under multi-hazard conditions.This study compares earthquake-only analysis results to the successive earthquake-tsunami analysis at the community level to reveal-and quantify-significant disparities in damage and loss estimations between the analyses,emphasizing the need to consider both hazards in community planning even at lower seismic intensities.Critical assessment of the FEMA combinational rule demonstrates its limitations in accurately predicting losses and damage patterns at higher hazard intensities,highlighting the necessity for refined models that accurately account for hazard inter-actions.This research advances multi-hazard community-level resilience analysis by offering a robust framework for earthquake and tsunami assessment,underscoring the need for integration of detailed multi-hazard analy-ses into resilience planning.Finally,it suggests future directions for enhancing framework applicability across diverse community settings and structural types,aiming to improve community resilience.展开更多
In this study, a traffic energy system model is developed to optimize the traffic system cost of Urumqi, considering energy consumption, pollution emission and travel time. Meanwhile, scenario analysis method is propo...In this study, a traffic energy system model is developed to optimize the traffic system cost of Urumqi, considering energy consumption, pollution emission and travel time. Meanwhile, scenario analysis method is proposed to solve the problem of the extreme weather of traffic, and three scenarios (i.e. 10%, 20% and 30%) of reductions of traffic flow quantity and pollutant emission are examined. The results demonstrate that the medium-type coach will be the promising selection under different scenarios especially in the extreme conditions and the traffic flow reduction scenarios are not the better option for the decision owing to the same cost under the different reduction levels. Moreover, encouraging the medium-type coach traveling and restricting the small vehicle driving would be attractive alternatives for the extreme situation. The proposed model would provide reasonable references for decision makers.展开更多
With the continuous development of urban public transportation, the harmful GHG emissions and pollutants generated by itself and the consequent issues such as the losses of residents’ health, economic value and resid...With the continuous development of urban public transportation, the harmful GHG emissions and pollutants generated by itself and the consequent issues such as the losses of residents’ health, economic value and residents’ welfare have become the focus of social attention. In order to study the impacts of promoting new energy vehicles on public transportation pollution mitigation and residents’ health benefits, this paper adopts the LEAP model to build some scenarios that fulfill different development needs to quantitatively analyze the ownership of new energy buses, the reduction of pollutants and the losses of residents’ health welfare. It is concluded that promoting new energy buses comprehensively can significantly reduce the emissions of atmospheric pollutants and the economic losses of residents’ health, but cannot fully realize the targets of greenhouse gas reduction under Life Cycle Analysis.展开更多
The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerica...The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario(floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite effects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ω and k-ε models in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ω model coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity(100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.展开更多
The overall planning of land use is a complex process of joint action of social system, natural and economic conditions. On the basis of summarizing the existing researches, we select Shaanxi's Shangluo City, loca...The overall planning of land use is a complex process of joint action of social system, natural and economic conditions. On the basis of summarizing the existing researches, we select Shaanxi's Shangluo City, located in the Qinba mountainous area as the study object, to expound the concept and steps of scenario analysis based on land use change data, under the guidance of ecological safety and sustainable development theory. We design four different scenarios of land use planning program in Shangluo City during the period 2006-2020, and use grey linear programming model to analyze each scenario. The results show that the scenario analysis is feasible in the adjustment of land use structure in Shangluo City; operable in the determining of land use planning program on a macro-municipal scale.展开更多
In software engineering, a scenario describes an anticipated usage of a software system. As scenarios are useful to understand the requirements and functionalities of a software system, the scenario-based analysis is ...In software engineering, a scenario describes an anticipated usage of a software system. As scenarios are useful to understand the requirements and functionalities of a software system, the scenario-based analysis is widely used in various tasks, especially in the design stage of software architectures. Although researchers have proposed various scenario-based approaches to analyse software architecture, there are still limitations in this research field, and a key limitation is that scenarios are typically not formally defined and thus may contain ambiguities. As these ambiguities may lead to defects, it is desirable to reduce them as many as possible. In order to reduce ambiguity in scenario-based software architecture analysis, this paper introduces a creative computing approach to scenario-based software requirements analysis. Our work expands this idea in three directions. Firstly, we extend an architecture description language(ADL)-based language – Breeze/ADL to model the software architecture. Secondly, we use a creative rule – combinational rule(CR) to combine the vector clock algorithm for reducing the ambiguities in modelling scenarios. Then, another creative rule – transformational rule(TR) is employed to help to transform our Breeze/ADL model to a popular model – unified modelling language(UML) model. We implement our approach as a plugin of Breeze, and illustrate a running example of modelling a poetry to music system in our case study.Our results show the proposed creative approach is able to reduce ambiguities of the software architecture in practice.展开更多
Low-carbon economic development has become a.fundamental approach to coordinating economic development and carbon emissions mitigation. As rapid developing economic, aviation and navigation, and financial center of No...Low-carbon economic development has become a.fundamental approach to coordinating economic development and carbon emissions mitigation. As rapid developing economic, aviation and navigation, and financial center of North China. Tianjin＇s energy demand and CO2 emissions are mushrooming, with per capita CO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion exceeding 20 t in 2020, which much exceeds current level of USA. In the background of global responding to climate change, China will likely be requested to commit peaking its GHG emissions during 2020-2030, which will inevitable reduce the room of development in Tianjin enormously. Tianjin should make deployment ahead, realizing win-win of addressing climate change and sustainable development, with low-carbon economic development as important strategic mission. First of all, Tianjin should devote more efforts to reducing energy intensity and realizing relative emission reduction. Scenario analysis shows that Tianjin＇s future CO2 emissions will continue to increase rapidly, but they can be significantly reduced by taking measures. Second, Tianjin should get ready for achieving absolute reduction of CO2 emissions as soon as possible, preparing system, technology and talent in advance, making great efforts to establish institutional meehanisms conducive to low-carbon development from now on. starting from energy conservation and emission reduction, actively carrying out low-carbon technology research and development, vigorously developing the tertiary industry with low emissions, developing new and renewable energy resources, actively promote low-carbon consumption.展开更多
Global warming threatens the lives and development of human beings and has become one of the major challenges tohumanity in the 21st century.With China’s continuous economic strengthening and closer contact with the ...Global warming threatens the lives and development of human beings and has become one of the major challenges tohumanity in the 21st century.With China’s continuous economic strengthening and closer contact with the world economy,prospects of China’s energy demands,energy supply roadmap and related carbon emissions have become the focus ofvarious organizations.By applying a scenario analysis,this report analyzes and forecasts China’s energy demands andcarbon emissions trends over the coming thirty to fifty years.Results indicate that under certain conditions,it will bepossible for China to take on a low carbon development path with Chinese characteristics.However,China needs overalladjustments in policy,institutions,structure,technology as well as strong support from international economic andpolitical environments.展开更多
This paper constructs a 4-lier computable general equilibrium model which includes such modules as modeling carbon emission constraints and carbon trading(CT),and incorporates the cost of carbon emissions into constan...This paper constructs a 4-lier computable general equilibrium model which includes such modules as modeling carbon emission constraints and carbon trading(CT),and incorporates the cost of carbon emissions into constant elasticity of substitute production function.Under scenario settings under different carbon abatement targets,based on 2007 national social accounting matrix and related statistical data about energy consumption and carbon emission,effects on economic outputs,energy consumption,and carbon abatement are estimated and analyzed at both macro and sector level.By calculating selected novel indicators that compromise between macroeconomic opportunity cost and achievable carbon abatement,reasonable carbon price intervals are given for enhancing the robustness and liquidity of carbon market.Further,by decomposition and share-weighted methods,expected carbon abatement and energy price are measured and analyzed in details.Some results are meaningful for fundamental design of the future carbon market.Given constant energy utilization and carbon abatement technologies at the macro level,the higher the carbon price the more actual carbon abatement;the more gross domestic product loss,the less energy consumption.Accwding to the overall situation estimated for 2007 in China,the advice given is to introduce a carbon abatement target rate(R_c)of-10%,which is helpful to make carbon market stable against unexpected carbon price shocks between[6.9,35]/tC with less economic loss.According to Kaya decomposition,after introduction of carbon pricing,carbon abatement is mainly contributed by the effects of energy intensity(EI)and technical progress.Further,CT may help reduce energy consumption and induce transformation to a low-carbon energy structure.At the sector level,the introduction of CT could induce economic recession in all sectors,especially energy.However,the overall economic structure remains unchanged to some extent.CT will help reduce energy consumption in all sectors,especially energy.Overall utilization costs of the energy composite can be divided in two,market price and carbonrelated costs.Carbon-related costs mainly contribute to variation in the utilization cos of the energy composite;carbon pricing may help non-energy sectors achieve sufficient carbon abatement by pushing up energy utilization cost.However,despite achievable carbon abatement by the energy sector being relatively high,induced by carbon pricing,there is still significant potential for other incentive policies to stimulate further abatement,such as energy resources taxation and transportation fuel taxation,especially in the sectors of coal and transportation.Finally,some advice is proposed in regard to policy decisions and further research.展开更多
[Objective] The study aimed at evaluating the ability to save energy and reduce CO2 emission in China＇s cement industry. [Method] Based on long-term energy alternative planning system software （LEAP）, ＂LEAP of Ch...[Objective] The study aimed at evaluating the ability to save energy and reduce CO2 emission in China＇s cement industry. [Method] Based on long-term energy alternative planning system software （LEAP）, ＂LEAP of China＇s cement industry＂ model was established to simulate energy conservation and emission reduction in China＇s cement industry from 2010 to 2040 in different technologic situations. E ResultJ To save ener- gy and reduce CO2 emissions, new dry process kiln has priority over other technologies or measures, followed by equipment enlargement, mechani- cal shaft kiln, power generation system based on waste heat, as well as high-efficiency and energy-saving grinding technology, and new prepara- tion technology. If all the advanced technologies and measures are adopted, energy consumption and C02 emissions can be reduced by about 40.76% and 42.97% respectively. [ Condusion] LEAP of model is suitable for analyzing energy saving and emission reducing in China＇s cement industry and other industrial fields.展开更多
This paper presents a structural vulnerability analysis method based on the theory of plastic limit analysis.By applying the mechanism generation method,the ultimate loading factor and the corresponding failure mode o...This paper presents a structural vulnerability analysis method based on the theory of plastic limit analysis.By applying the mechanism generation method,the ultimate loading factor and the corresponding failure mode of a structural system can be obtained.The ultimate loading factor was then used to measure the performance of a structural system.The variation of this factor to different damage scenarios due to vehicle collision was investigated.To illustrate the proposed method,two cases study on statically determinate and statically indeterminate truss bridge were performed.The results of the case study showed that the susceptibility of structure performance to local damage scenarios not only depends on the location but also the severity of the damage scenarios.Based on this analysis,structural capacity can be evaluated and structural management and maintenance strategy can be made more efficiently.展开更多
With the continuous advancement of the avionics system,crew members are correspondingly reduced,and Single Pilot Operations(SPO)has attracted widespread attention from scholars.To meet the flight requirements in SPO m...With the continuous advancement of the avionics system,crew members are correspondingly reduced,and Single Pilot Operations(SPO)has attracted widespread attention from scholars.To meet the flight requirements in SPO mode,it is necessary to further strengthen air-ground coordination system integration,but at the same time,there will be some safety issues caused by resource integration,function fusion,and task synthesis.Aimed at the safety problems caused by task synthesis,an efficient differential bicluster mining algorithm--DFCluster algorithm is proposed in this paper to discover potential hazardous elements or propagation mechanisms through mining the resource-function matrixes.To mine efficiently,several pruning techniques are designed for generating maximal biclusters without candidate maintenance.The experimental results show that the DFCluster algorithm is more efficient than the existing differential biclustering algorithms under different scales of artificial datasets and public datasets.Then,a typical flight scenario is designed based on SPO air-ground collaborative system architecture,and combined with our proposed DFCluster algorithm for task synthesis safety analysis.Based on the mining results,the SPO airground collaborative system architecture is modified,which ultimately improves the safety of the SPO system.展开更多
This study is novel,as it aims to generate an emergency scenario model for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks to help decision-makers provide an optimal response in any emergency.To this end,the CIA-ISM m...This study is novel,as it aims to generate an emergency scenario model for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks to help decision-makers provide an optimal response in any emergency.To this end,the CIA-ISM methodology,which is the combination of Cross-Impact Analysis(CIA)and Interpretative Structural Model(ISM),allows the representation of all possible connections among risks,as well as representing real events under conditions of uncertainty.The proposed model integrates the use of an information system for the generation of multiple emergency scenarios that include the capture of complex interactions among agents,resources and variable environmental conditions.The results highlight the capacity of the proposed emergency scenario model based on CIA-ISM for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks,identification of hidden vulnerabilities and evaluation of mitigation strategies in real-time.This study not only expands the theoretical knowledge of emergency management but also provides a useful tool to improve preparedness and response capacity in the face of adverse events in dynamic and complex environments.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71704178)Beijing Municipal Excellent Talents Foundation(No.2017000020124G133)Major consulting project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering(Nos.2023-JB-08,2022-PP-03).
文摘The proposal of carbon neutrality target makes decarbonization and hydrogenation typical features of future energy development in China.With a wide range of application scenarios,hydrogen energy will experience rapid growth in production and consumption.To formulate an effective hydrogen energy development strategy for the future of China,this study employs the departmental scenario analysis method to calculate and evaluate the future consumption of hydrogen energy in China’s heavy industry,transportation,electricity,and other related fields.Multidimensional technical parameters are selected and predicted accurately and reliably in combination with different development scenarios.The findings indicate that the period from 2030 to 2050 will enjoy rapid development of hydrogen energy,having an average annual growth rate of 2%to 4%.The technological progress and breakthroughs scenario has the greatest potential for hydrogen demand scale among the four development scenarios.Under this scenario,the total demand for hydrogen energy is expected to reach 446.37Mt in 2060.Thetransportation sector will be the sector with the greatest potential for hydrogen deployment growth from 2023 to 2060,which is expected to rise from 0.038Mt to about 163.18Mt,with the ambitious growth in the future.Additionally,hydrogen energy has a considerable development potential in the steel sector,and the trend of de-refueling coke by hydrogenation in this sector will be imperative for this energy-intensive industries.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41071324 No.41201550+5 种基金 No.40730526 Humanities and Social Sciences Project from the Ministry of Education, No.12YJCZtt257 The Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission, No. 13YZ061 No.13ZZ035 Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, East China Normal University, No.KLGIS2011A04 The Fundamental Re- search Funds for the Central Universities, and the Key Subject Development Project of the Shanghai Munici- pal Education Commission, No.J50402
文摘China is physically and socio-economically susceptible to global warming-derived high temperature extremes because of its vast area and high urban population density. This article presents a scenario-based analysis method for high temperature extremes aimed at illustrating the latter＇s hazardous potential and exposure across China. Based on probability analysis, high temperature extreme scenarios with return periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years were designed, with a high temperature hazard index calculated by integrating two differen- tially-weighted extreme temperature indices （maximum temperature and high temperature days）. To perform the exposure analysis, a land use map was employed to determine the spatial distribution of susceptible human activities under the different scenarios. The results indicate that there are two heat-prone regions and a sub-hotspot occupying a relatively small land area. However, the societal and economic consequences of such an environmental im- pact upon the North China Plain and middle/lower Yangtze River Basin would be substantial due to the concentration of human activities in these areas.
基金supported by the Hundred Talents Program,CAS and the Natural Science Foundation of China(30030090,39830220).
文摘A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. Model validation indicated that soil organic carbon dynamics can be simulated from the weather variables of temperature, sunlight and precipitation, soil clay content and bulk density, grain yield of previous crops, qualities and quantities of the added organic matter. Model simulation in general a-greed with the measurements. The comparison between computed and measured resulted in correlation coefficient γ2 values of 0.9291* * * (n= 48) and 0.6431* * (n = 65) for the two experiments, respectively. Model prediction under three scenarios of no additional organic matter input, with an annual incorporation of rice and wheat straw at rates of 6.75t/ha and 9.0t/ha suggested that the soil organic carbon in Wanshi Township of Yixing City would be from an initial value of 7.85g/kg in 1983 to 6.30g/kg, 11.42g/kg and 13g/kg in 2014, respectively. Consequently, total nitrogen content of the soil was predicted to be respectively 0.49g/kg, 0.89g/kg and 1.01g/kg under the three scenarios.
基金funded as part of the Swiss NFI program by the Federal Office of Environment FOEN and the Federal Institute for Forest,Snow and Landscape research WSL。
文摘Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory(NFI). We included a businessas-usual(BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well(AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect(mostly bark beetle)damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition(storm: >-11%, beetle: >-37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased(e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71573172,51709168).
文摘The framework of fatigue factors is constructed to reduce the number of maritime accidents caused by human fatigue.Based on the study of maritime human fatigue,by screening and classifying it,there are 15 fatigue factors,which can be classified into 4 types:sleep,rest and rhythm;work factors;personal conditions;environmental factors.These factors are regarded as the variables for constructing scenarios.The importance,uncertainty,influence and dependence of variables and variable pairs were assessed by using morphological analysis,quantitative scales and correlation matrices.Ship movement and workload are selected as the two key variables,which are regarded as the axes of generating scenarios.One of the scenarios is selected as the typical scenario to illustrate the relationship between the causes of fatigue.Then,the analysis framework is constructed according to the fatigue factors relationship,and several potential solutions are proposed,which include the development of foresighted and flexible work plans,and the application of wearable facilities to improve monitoring and assessment systems.The proposed framework lays a theoretical foundation for studying maritime human fatigue,and scenario analysis can provide an effective strategy for reducing crews'fatigue.
文摘This paper takes the climate change and low carbon economy development as the study background, based on the analysis of energy demand and carbon emissions status, which is aimed to provide the low carbon development path in Chinese cities. The method of scenario analysis can be used to predict long-term strategy for the uncertainty future development, and it was introduced to the field of social forecasting and public policy research, such as the environmental strategic planning, policy analysis, and support of decision in resource management, which can be used to explore the possible development trend and target of the results from the macro perspective. Scenario analysis has been gradually applied to the study area on low carbon economy, energy forecasting and other fields in recent years, and there have been many research results in different aspects. This paper takes the scenario analysis as basic study theory, spreading out the present situation of its application in low carbon city and some issues that need further study. As a tool for predicting the future development in low carbon city, the method of scenario analysis has been providing a powerful reference for policies and their executants.
基金financial support by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No.2018YFC1509006)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.71874096)+1 种基金the Macao SAR Government Higher Education Fundthe Macao University of Science and Technology (Grant No.FRG-19-008-MSB)。
文摘Adipic acid is an important petrochemical product,and its production process emits a high concentration of greenhouse gas N_2 O.This paper aims to provide quantitative references for relevant authorities to formulate greenhouse gas control roadmaps.The forecasting method of this paper is consistent with the published national inventory in terms of caliber.Based on the N_2 O abatement technical parameters of adipic acid and the production trend,this paper combines the scenario analysis and provides a measurement of comprehensive N_2 O abatement effect of the entire industry in China.Four future scenarios are assumed.The baseline scenario(BAUS) is a frozen scenario.Three emission abatement scenarios(ANAS,SNAS,and ENAS) are assumed under different strength of abatement driving parameters.The results show that China's adipic acid production process can achieve increasingly significant N_2 O emission abatement effects.Compared to the baseline scenario,by 2030,the N_2 O emission abatements of the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 207-399 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 32.5%-62.6%.By 2050,the N_2 O emission abatements for the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 387-540 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 71.4%-99.6%.
基金funded through a cooperative agreement between the U.S.National Institute of Standards and Technology and Colorado State University(NIST Financial Assistance Award Numbers:70NANB15H044 and 70NANB20H008).
文摘This study introduces an advanced community-level resilience analysis methodology integrating 3D fragility sur-faces for combined successive earthquake-tsunami hazard and analysis.The methodology facilitates comprehen-sive evaluations of spatial damage,economic loss,and risk under multi-hazard conditions.This study compares earthquake-only analysis results to the successive earthquake-tsunami analysis at the community level to reveal-and quantify-significant disparities in damage and loss estimations between the analyses,emphasizing the need to consider both hazards in community planning even at lower seismic intensities.Critical assessment of the FEMA combinational rule demonstrates its limitations in accurately predicting losses and damage patterns at higher hazard intensities,highlighting the necessity for refined models that accurately account for hazard inter-actions.This research advances multi-hazard community-level resilience analysis by offering a robust framework for earthquake and tsunami assessment,underscoring the need for integration of detailed multi-hazard analy-ses into resilience planning.Finally,it suggests future directions for enhancing framework applicability across diverse community settings and structural types,aiming to improve community resilience.
文摘In this study, a traffic energy system model is developed to optimize the traffic system cost of Urumqi, considering energy consumption, pollution emission and travel time. Meanwhile, scenario analysis method is proposed to solve the problem of the extreme weather of traffic, and three scenarios (i.e. 10%, 20% and 30%) of reductions of traffic flow quantity and pollutant emission are examined. The results demonstrate that the medium-type coach will be the promising selection under different scenarios especially in the extreme conditions and the traffic flow reduction scenarios are not the better option for the decision owing to the same cost under the different reduction levels. Moreover, encouraging the medium-type coach traveling and restricting the small vehicle driving would be attractive alternatives for the extreme situation. The proposed model would provide reasonable references for decision makers.
文摘With the continuous development of urban public transportation, the harmful GHG emissions and pollutants generated by itself and the consequent issues such as the losses of residents’ health, economic value and residents’ welfare have become the focus of social attention. In order to study the impacts of promoting new energy vehicles on public transportation pollution mitigation and residents’ health benefits, this paper adopts the LEAP model to build some scenarios that fulfill different development needs to quantitatively analyze the ownership of new energy buses, the reduction of pollutants and the losses of residents’ health welfare. It is concluded that promoting new energy buses comprehensively can significantly reduce the emissions of atmospheric pollutants and the economic losses of residents’ health, but cannot fully realize the targets of greenhouse gas reduction under Life Cycle Analysis.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China("973" Program,No.2013CB035906)Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin(No.JCYBJC19500)the Foundation of Innovative Research Groups of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51321065)
文摘The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario(floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite effects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ω and k-ε models in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ω model coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity(100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.
基金Supported by Graduate Innovation Fund Project of Northwest University (10YSJ05)
文摘The overall planning of land use is a complex process of joint action of social system, natural and economic conditions. On the basis of summarizing the existing researches, we select Shaanxi's Shangluo City, located in the Qinba mountainous area as the study object, to expound the concept and steps of scenario analysis based on land use change data, under the guidance of ecological safety and sustainable development theory. We design four different scenarios of land use planning program in Shangluo City during the period 2006-2020, and use grey linear programming model to analyze each scenario. The results show that the scenario analysis is feasible in the adjustment of land use structure in Shangluo City; operable in the determining of land use planning program on a macro-municipal scale.
基金partially supported by the Japam Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI (Nos. 25420232 and 16K06203)
文摘In software engineering, a scenario describes an anticipated usage of a software system. As scenarios are useful to understand the requirements and functionalities of a software system, the scenario-based analysis is widely used in various tasks, especially in the design stage of software architectures. Although researchers have proposed various scenario-based approaches to analyse software architecture, there are still limitations in this research field, and a key limitation is that scenarios are typically not formally defined and thus may contain ambiguities. As these ambiguities may lead to defects, it is desirable to reduce them as many as possible. In order to reduce ambiguity in scenario-based software architecture analysis, this paper introduces a creative computing approach to scenario-based software requirements analysis. Our work expands this idea in three directions. Firstly, we extend an architecture description language(ADL)-based language – Breeze/ADL to model the software architecture. Secondly, we use a creative rule – combinational rule(CR) to combine the vector clock algorithm for reducing the ambiguities in modelling scenarios. Then, another creative rule – transformational rule(TR) is employed to help to transform our Breeze/ADL model to a popular model – unified modelling language(UML) model. We implement our approach as a plugin of Breeze, and illustrate a running example of modelling a poetry to music system in our case study.Our results show the proposed creative approach is able to reduce ambiguities of the software architecture in practice.
基金supported by National Key Project of Scientific and Technical Supporting Programs Funded by Ministry of Science and Technology of China in the 11th Five Year Plan (Grant No. 2007BAC03A12)
文摘Low-carbon economic development has become a.fundamental approach to coordinating economic development and carbon emissions mitigation. As rapid developing economic, aviation and navigation, and financial center of North China. Tianjin＇s energy demand and CO2 emissions are mushrooming, with per capita CO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion exceeding 20 t in 2020, which much exceeds current level of USA. In the background of global responding to climate change, China will likely be requested to commit peaking its GHG emissions during 2020-2030, which will inevitable reduce the room of development in Tianjin enormously. Tianjin should make deployment ahead, realizing win-win of addressing climate change and sustainable development, with low-carbon economic development as important strategic mission. First of all, Tianjin should devote more efforts to reducing energy intensity and realizing relative emission reduction. Scenario analysis shows that Tianjin＇s future CO2 emissions will continue to increase rapidly, but they can be significantly reduced by taking measures. Second, Tianjin should get ready for achieving absolute reduction of CO2 emissions as soon as possible, preparing system, technology and talent in advance, making great efforts to establish institutional meehanisms conducive to low-carbon development from now on. starting from energy conservation and emission reduction, actively carrying out low-carbon technology research and development, vigorously developing the tertiary industry with low emissions, developing new and renewable energy resources, actively promote low-carbon consumption.
基金sponsored by the Energy Foundation (EF) and World Wildlife Fund (WWF).
文摘Global warming threatens the lives and development of human beings and has become one of the major challenges tohumanity in the 21st century.With China’s continuous economic strengthening and closer contact with the world economy,prospects of China’s energy demands,energy supply roadmap and related carbon emissions have become the focus ofvarious organizations.By applying a scenario analysis,this report analyzes and forecasts China’s energy demands andcarbon emissions trends over the coming thirty to fifty years.Results indicate that under certain conditions,it will bepossible for China to take on a low carbon development path with Chinese characteristics.However,China needs overalladjustments in policy,institutions,structure,technology as well as strong support from international economic andpolitical environments.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.CDJSK10 00 68)the NSFC Young Scientist Research Fund(Grant No.0903080)
文摘This paper constructs a 4-lier computable general equilibrium model which includes such modules as modeling carbon emission constraints and carbon trading(CT),and incorporates the cost of carbon emissions into constant elasticity of substitute production function.Under scenario settings under different carbon abatement targets,based on 2007 national social accounting matrix and related statistical data about energy consumption and carbon emission,effects on economic outputs,energy consumption,and carbon abatement are estimated and analyzed at both macro and sector level.By calculating selected novel indicators that compromise between macroeconomic opportunity cost and achievable carbon abatement,reasonable carbon price intervals are given for enhancing the robustness and liquidity of carbon market.Further,by decomposition and share-weighted methods,expected carbon abatement and energy price are measured and analyzed in details.Some results are meaningful for fundamental design of the future carbon market.Given constant energy utilization and carbon abatement technologies at the macro level,the higher the carbon price the more actual carbon abatement;the more gross domestic product loss,the less energy consumption.Accwding to the overall situation estimated for 2007 in China,the advice given is to introduce a carbon abatement target rate(R_c)of-10%,which is helpful to make carbon market stable against unexpected carbon price shocks between[6.9,35]/tC with less economic loss.According to Kaya decomposition,after introduction of carbon pricing,carbon abatement is mainly contributed by the effects of energy intensity(EI)and technical progress.Further,CT may help reduce energy consumption and induce transformation to a low-carbon energy structure.At the sector level,the introduction of CT could induce economic recession in all sectors,especially energy.However,the overall economic structure remains unchanged to some extent.CT will help reduce energy consumption in all sectors,especially energy.Overall utilization costs of the energy composite can be divided in two,market price and carbonrelated costs.Carbon-related costs mainly contribute to variation in the utilization cos of the energy composite;carbon pricing may help non-energy sectors achieve sufficient carbon abatement by pushing up energy utilization cost.However,despite achievable carbon abatement by the energy sector being relatively high,induced by carbon pricing,there is still significant potential for other incentive policies to stimulate further abatement,such as energy resources taxation and transportation fuel taxation,especially in the sectors of coal and transportation.Finally,some advice is proposed in regard to policy decisions and further research.
基金Supported by Special Project for Developing National Major Scientific Instruments and Equipments (2011YQ060111)Scientific Research Project of Environmental Protection in Commonweal Industry(201009032)
文摘[Objective] The study aimed at evaluating the ability to save energy and reduce CO2 emission in China＇s cement industry. [Method] Based on long-term energy alternative planning system software （LEAP）, ＂LEAP of China＇s cement industry＂ model was established to simulate energy conservation and emission reduction in China＇s cement industry from 2010 to 2040 in different technologic situations. E ResultJ To save ener- gy and reduce CO2 emissions, new dry process kiln has priority over other technologies or measures, followed by equipment enlargement, mechani- cal shaft kiln, power generation system based on waste heat, as well as high-efficiency and energy-saving grinding technology, and new prepara- tion technology. If all the advanced technologies and measures are adopted, energy consumption and C02 emissions can be reduced by about 40.76% and 42.97% respectively. [ Condusion] LEAP of model is suitable for analyzing energy saving and emission reducing in China＇s cement industry and other industrial fields.
基金Sponsored by the Key Program of National Nature Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50538020)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2006AA11Z109)the Key Research Project of Chinese State Key Laboratory for Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering (Grand No. SLDRCE08-A-05)
文摘This paper presents a structural vulnerability analysis method based on the theory of plastic limit analysis.By applying the mechanism generation method,the ultimate loading factor and the corresponding failure mode of a structural system can be obtained.The ultimate loading factor was then used to measure the performance of a structural system.The variation of this factor to different damage scenarios due to vehicle collision was investigated.To illustrate the proposed method,two cases study on statically determinate and statically indeterminate truss bridge were performed.The results of the case study showed that the susceptibility of structure performance to local damage scenarios not only depends on the location but also the severity of the damage scenarios.Based on this analysis,structural capacity can be evaluated and structural management and maintenance strategy can be made more efficiently.
基金supported by National Program on Key Basic Research Project(2014CB744903)National Natural Science Foundation of China(61673270)+5 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(20ZR1427800)New Young Teachers Launch Program of Shanghai Jiaotong University(20X100040036)Shanghai Pujiang Program(16PJD028)Shanghai Industrial Strengthening Project(GYQJ-2017-5-08)Shanghai Science and Technology Committee Research Project(17DZ1204304)Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Civil Aircraft Flight Testing。
文摘With the continuous advancement of the avionics system,crew members are correspondingly reduced,and Single Pilot Operations(SPO)has attracted widespread attention from scholars.To meet the flight requirements in SPO mode,it is necessary to further strengthen air-ground coordination system integration,but at the same time,there will be some safety issues caused by resource integration,function fusion,and task synthesis.Aimed at the safety problems caused by task synthesis,an efficient differential bicluster mining algorithm--DFCluster algorithm is proposed in this paper to discover potential hazardous elements or propagation mechanisms through mining the resource-function matrixes.To mine efficiently,several pruning techniques are designed for generating maximal biclusters without candidate maintenance.The experimental results show that the DFCluster algorithm is more efficient than the existing differential biclustering algorithms under different scales of artificial datasets and public datasets.Then,a typical flight scenario is designed based on SPO air-ground collaborative system architecture,and combined with our proposed DFCluster algorithm for task synthesis safety analysis.Based on the mining results,the SPO airground collaborative system architecture is modified,which ultimately improves the safety of the SPO system.
文摘This study is novel,as it aims to generate an emergency scenario model for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks to help decision-makers provide an optimal response in any emergency.To this end,the CIA-ISM methodology,which is the combination of Cross-Impact Analysis(CIA)and Interpretative Structural Model(ISM),allows the representation of all possible connections among risks,as well as representing real events under conditions of uncertainty.The proposed model integrates the use of an information system for the generation of multiple emergency scenarios that include the capture of complex interactions among agents,resources and variable environmental conditions.The results highlight the capacity of the proposed emergency scenario model based on CIA-ISM for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks,identification of hidden vulnerabilities and evaluation of mitigation strategies in real-time.This study not only expands the theoretical knowledge of emergency management but also provides a useful tool to improve preparedness and response capacity in the face of adverse events in dynamic and complex environments.
