Effective source-load prediction and reasonable dispatching are crucial to realize the economic and reliable operations of integrated energy systems(IESs).They can overcome the challenges introduced by the uncertainti...Effective source-load prediction and reasonable dispatching are crucial to realize the economic and reliable operations of integrated energy systems(IESs).They can overcome the challenges introduced by the uncertainties of new energies and various types of loads in the IES.Accordingly,a robust optimal dispatching method for the IES based on a robust economic model predictive control(REMPC)strategy considering source-load power interval prediction is proposed.First,an operation model of the IES is established,and an interval prediction model based on the bidirectional long short-term memory network optimized by beetle antenna search and bootstrap is formulated and applied to predict the photovoltaic power and the cooling,heating,and electrical loads.Then,an optimal dispatching scheme based on REMPC is devised for the IES.The source-load interval prediction results are used to improve the robustness of the REPMC and reduce the influence of source-load uncertainties on dispatching.An actual IES case is selected to conduct simulations;the results show that compared with other prediction techniques,the proposed method has higher prediction interval coverage probability and prediction interval normalized averaged width.Moreover,the operational cost of the IES is decreased by the REMPC strategy.With the devised dispatching scheme,the ability of the IES to handle the dispatching risk caused by prediction errors is enhanced.Improved dispatching robustness and operational economy are also achieved.展开更多
To better reduce the carbon emissions of a park-integrated energy system(PIES),optimize the comprehensive operating cost,and smooth the load curve,a source-load flexible response model based on the comprehensive evalu...To better reduce the carbon emissions of a park-integrated energy system(PIES),optimize the comprehensive operating cost,and smooth the load curve,a source-load flexible response model based on the comprehensive evaluation index is proposed.Firstly,a source-load flexible response model is proposed under the stepped carbon trading mechanism;the organic Rankine cycle is introduced into the source-side to construct a flexible response model with traditional combined heat and power(CHP)unit and electric boiler to realize the flexible response of CHP to load;and the load-side categorizes loads into transferable,interruptible,and substitutable loads according to the load characteristics and establishes a comprehensive demand response model.Secondly,the analytic network process(ANP)considers the linkages between indicators and allows decision-makers to consider the interactions of elements in a complex dynamic system,resulting in more realistic indicator assignment values.Considering the economy,energy efficiency,and environment,the PIES optimization operation model based on the ANP comprehensive evaluation index is constructed to optimize the system operation comprehensively.Finally,the CPLEX solver inMATLABwas employed to solve the problem.The results of the example showthat the source-load flexible response model proposed in this paper reduces the operating cost of the system by 29.90%,improves the comprehensive utilization rate by 15.00%,and reduces the carbon emission by 26.98%,which effectively enhances the system’s economy and low carbon,and the comprehensive evaluation index based on the ANP reaches 0.95,which takes into account the economy,energy efficiency,and the environment,and is more superior than the single evaluation index.展开更多
Anthropogenically induced land use/land cover(LULC)transformations and accelerating climatic variabilities have emerged as pivotal forces reshaping the hydrological equilibrium of fluvial systems,particularly in ecolo...Anthropogenically induced land use/land cover(LULC)transformations and accelerating climatic variabilities have emerged as pivotal forces reshaping the hydrological equilibrium of fluvial systems,particularly in ecologically sensitive basins.This study systematically interrogates the compounded ramifications of LULC dynamics and projected climate change on the hydrological response of the Upper Jemma Watershed an integral sub-catchment of the Upper Blue Nile River system.Employing the advanced QSWAT+hydrological modeling framework within a GIS interface,the analysis integrates bias‐corrected climatic projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios alongside multi-temporal remote sensing‐derived land cover datasets.The findings unveil an unequivocal intensification of surface runoff and streamflow due to expansive agricultural encroachment,juxtaposed with a discernible decline in evapotranspiration and soil water retention.Climatic perturbations,notably temperature elevation and precipitation attenuation,further exacerbate these trends,with pronounced seasonality in hydrological fluxes.Importantly,synergistic interactions between land cover transformation and climatic anomalies manifest in nonlinear hydrological alterations,amplifying peak flows and diminishing baseflows.This underscores the riverine system's heightened vulnerability and the necessity for integrated watershed management strategies that account for multifactorial hydrological stressors.The study provides a robust empirical and modeling basis to inform adaptive water governance within transboundary river basins susceptible to environmental transitions.展开更多
The hybrid scenario,which has good confinement and moderate MHD instabilities,is a proposed operation scenario for international thermonuclear experimental reactor(ITER).In this work,the effect of plasma rotation on t...The hybrid scenario,which has good confinement and moderate MHD instabilities,is a proposed operation scenario for international thermonuclear experimental reactor(ITER).In this work,the effect of plasma rotation on the HL-3 hybrid scenario is analyzed with the integrated modeling framework OMFIT.The results show that toroidal rotation has no obvious effect on confinement with a high line averaged density of n_(bar)~(7)×10^(19)m^(-3).In this case,the ion temperature only changes from 4.7 keV to 4.4 keV with the rotation decreasing from 10^(5) rad/s to 10^(3) rad/s,which means that the turbulent heat transport is not dominant.While in the scenarios characterized by lower densities,such as n_(bar)~4×10^(19)m^(-3),turbulent transport becomes dominant in determining heat transport.The ion temperature rises from 3.8 keV to 6.1 keV in the core as the rotation velocity increases from 10^(3) rad/s to 10^(5) rad/s.Despite the ion temperature rising,the rotation velocity does not obviously affect electron temperature or density.Additionally,it is noteworthy that the variation in rotation velocity does not significantly affect the global confinement of plasma in scenarios with low density or with high density.展开更多
An integrated modelling approach is developed to simulate ecological economics processes of mountainous watershed of Heihe river basin, northwest China. The objectives are 1) a hydrologic unit model HLM_HMU was develo...An integrated modelling approach is developed to simulate ecological economics processes of mountainous watershed of Heihe river basin, northwest China. The objectives are 1) a hydrologic unit model HLM_HMU was developed;2) the impacts of LUCC on the hydrological processes based on different scenarios were simulated respectively;and 3) the Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) curve of prohibition grazing is given. The hydrological results show that the observed and simulated data have a good fit, in which the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, balance error, and explained variance are 0.69, -0.13, and 0.62, respectively;the model can simulate the majority of peaks well;the source code of Spatial Modelling Environment (SME) needs to be deeply understood to improve the algorithms of interpolation and conflux;the PES result shows that prohibition grazing will occur completely when the price of PES reached to 17.42 yuan, and the increased amount of ecosystem services is 2.13 × 108 m3.The main purpose of this paper is to build a better understanding of developing a meaningful integrated model in the study area to solve its ecological and economic problems.展开更多
Northwest China serves as a critical ecological barrier region for maintaining national water,energy,and food security,as well as transboundary ecological governance.However,under the dual pressures of climate change ...Northwest China serves as a critical ecological barrier region for maintaining national water,energy,and food security,as well as transboundary ecological governance.However,under the dual pressures of climate change and human activities,ecosystem services(ESs)are facing severe challenges in this region.Based on multi-source remote sensing and statistical data during 2000–2020,this study investigated the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of four key ESs(water yield,habitat quality,carbon storage,and food provisioning)in Northwest China using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.Integrating morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)and circuit theory,we identified ecological sources,corridors,pinch points,and barriers,and further designed three optimization scenarios(bottleneck optimization,high-resistance corridor buffering,and barrier removal optimization)to enhance landscape connectivity.The results revealed that ES supply and demand exhibited marked spatial heterogeneity,with high-supply areas concentrated in the southeastern sectors.Ecological sources primarily distributed in the southeastern and northern sectors,and ecological resistance surfaces continuously intensified.Water yield and habitat quality demands were increasing,food provisioning demand was decreasing,and carbon storage demand was surging.A total of 61 ecological sources(8%of the study area),142 ecological corridors(24,957 km in total length),237 ecological pinch points,and 89 barrier zones were identified.Among the three optimization scenarios,barrier removal achieved optimal connectivity improvement across all distance thresholds,with the probability of connectivity index improvement reaching up to 4%.This study provides scientific foundations and spatial decision support for ecological network optimization and sustainable governance in arid and semi-arid areas.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Project of China(2018YFE0122200).
文摘Effective source-load prediction and reasonable dispatching are crucial to realize the economic and reliable operations of integrated energy systems(IESs).They can overcome the challenges introduced by the uncertainties of new energies and various types of loads in the IES.Accordingly,a robust optimal dispatching method for the IES based on a robust economic model predictive control(REMPC)strategy considering source-load power interval prediction is proposed.First,an operation model of the IES is established,and an interval prediction model based on the bidirectional long short-term memory network optimized by beetle antenna search and bootstrap is formulated and applied to predict the photovoltaic power and the cooling,heating,and electrical loads.Then,an optimal dispatching scheme based on REMPC is devised for the IES.The source-load interval prediction results are used to improve the robustness of the REPMC and reduce the influence of source-load uncertainties on dispatching.An actual IES case is selected to conduct simulations;the results show that compared with other prediction techniques,the proposed method has higher prediction interval coverage probability and prediction interval normalized averaged width.Moreover,the operational cost of the IES is decreased by the REMPC strategy.With the devised dispatching scheme,the ability of the IES to handle the dispatching risk caused by prediction errors is enhanced.Improved dispatching robustness and operational economy are also achieved.
文摘To better reduce the carbon emissions of a park-integrated energy system(PIES),optimize the comprehensive operating cost,and smooth the load curve,a source-load flexible response model based on the comprehensive evaluation index is proposed.Firstly,a source-load flexible response model is proposed under the stepped carbon trading mechanism;the organic Rankine cycle is introduced into the source-side to construct a flexible response model with traditional combined heat and power(CHP)unit and electric boiler to realize the flexible response of CHP to load;and the load-side categorizes loads into transferable,interruptible,and substitutable loads according to the load characteristics and establishes a comprehensive demand response model.Secondly,the analytic network process(ANP)considers the linkages between indicators and allows decision-makers to consider the interactions of elements in a complex dynamic system,resulting in more realistic indicator assignment values.Considering the economy,energy efficiency,and environment,the PIES optimization operation model based on the ANP comprehensive evaluation index is constructed to optimize the system operation comprehensively.Finally,the CPLEX solver inMATLABwas employed to solve the problem.The results of the example showthat the source-load flexible response model proposed in this paper reduces the operating cost of the system by 29.90%,improves the comprehensive utilization rate by 15.00%,and reduces the carbon emission by 26.98%,which effectively enhances the system’s economy and low carbon,and the comprehensive evaluation index based on the ANP reaches 0.95,which takes into account the economy,energy efficiency,and the environment,and is more superior than the single evaluation index.
文摘Anthropogenically induced land use/land cover(LULC)transformations and accelerating climatic variabilities have emerged as pivotal forces reshaping the hydrological equilibrium of fluvial systems,particularly in ecologically sensitive basins.This study systematically interrogates the compounded ramifications of LULC dynamics and projected climate change on the hydrological response of the Upper Jemma Watershed an integral sub-catchment of the Upper Blue Nile River system.Employing the advanced QSWAT+hydrological modeling framework within a GIS interface,the analysis integrates bias‐corrected climatic projections under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios alongside multi-temporal remote sensing‐derived land cover datasets.The findings unveil an unequivocal intensification of surface runoff and streamflow due to expansive agricultural encroachment,juxtaposed with a discernible decline in evapotranspiration and soil water retention.Climatic perturbations,notably temperature elevation and precipitation attenuation,further exacerbate these trends,with pronounced seasonality in hydrological fluxes.Importantly,synergistic interactions between land cover transformation and climatic anomalies manifest in nonlinear hydrological alterations,amplifying peak flows and diminishing baseflows.This underscores the riverine system's heightened vulnerability and the necessity for integrated watershed management strategies that account for multifactorial hydrological stressors.The study provides a robust empirical and modeling basis to inform adaptive water governance within transboundary river basins susceptible to environmental transitions.
基金Project supported by the National Magnetic Confinement Fusion Program of China (Grants Nos.2019YFE03040002 and 2018YFE0301101)the Talent Project of China National Nuclear Corporation,China (Grant No.2022JZYF-01)。
文摘The hybrid scenario,which has good confinement and moderate MHD instabilities,is a proposed operation scenario for international thermonuclear experimental reactor(ITER).In this work,the effect of plasma rotation on the HL-3 hybrid scenario is analyzed with the integrated modeling framework OMFIT.The results show that toroidal rotation has no obvious effect on confinement with a high line averaged density of n_(bar)~(7)×10^(19)m^(-3).In this case,the ion temperature only changes from 4.7 keV to 4.4 keV with the rotation decreasing from 10^(5) rad/s to 10^(3) rad/s,which means that the turbulent heat transport is not dominant.While in the scenarios characterized by lower densities,such as n_(bar)~4×10^(19)m^(-3),turbulent transport becomes dominant in determining heat transport.The ion temperature rises from 3.8 keV to 6.1 keV in the core as the rotation velocity increases from 10^(3) rad/s to 10^(5) rad/s.Despite the ion temperature rising,the rotation velocity does not obviously affect electron temperature or density.Additionally,it is noteworthy that the variation in rotation velocity does not significantly affect the global confinement of plasma in scenarios with low density or with high density.
文摘An integrated modelling approach is developed to simulate ecological economics processes of mountainous watershed of Heihe river basin, northwest China. The objectives are 1) a hydrologic unit model HLM_HMU was developed;2) the impacts of LUCC on the hydrological processes based on different scenarios were simulated respectively;and 3) the Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) curve of prohibition grazing is given. The hydrological results show that the observed and simulated data have a good fit, in which the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, balance error, and explained variance are 0.69, -0.13, and 0.62, respectively;the model can simulate the majority of peaks well;the source code of Spatial Modelling Environment (SME) needs to be deeply understood to improve the algorithms of interpolation and conflux;the PES result shows that prohibition grazing will occur completely when the price of PES reached to 17.42 yuan, and the increased amount of ecosystem services is 2.13 × 108 m3.The main purpose of this paper is to build a better understanding of developing a meaningful integrated model in the study area to solve its ecological and economic problems.
基金supported by the Tianchi Talent Introduction Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(2024000104)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805603).
文摘Northwest China serves as a critical ecological barrier region for maintaining national water,energy,and food security,as well as transboundary ecological governance.However,under the dual pressures of climate change and human activities,ecosystem services(ESs)are facing severe challenges in this region.Based on multi-source remote sensing and statistical data during 2000–2020,this study investigated the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of four key ESs(water yield,habitat quality,carbon storage,and food provisioning)in Northwest China using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.Integrating morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)and circuit theory,we identified ecological sources,corridors,pinch points,and barriers,and further designed three optimization scenarios(bottleneck optimization,high-resistance corridor buffering,and barrier removal optimization)to enhance landscape connectivity.The results revealed that ES supply and demand exhibited marked spatial heterogeneity,with high-supply areas concentrated in the southeastern sectors.Ecological sources primarily distributed in the southeastern and northern sectors,and ecological resistance surfaces continuously intensified.Water yield and habitat quality demands were increasing,food provisioning demand was decreasing,and carbon storage demand was surging.A total of 61 ecological sources(8%of the study area),142 ecological corridors(24,957 km in total length),237 ecological pinch points,and 89 barrier zones were identified.Among the three optimization scenarios,barrier removal achieved optimal connectivity improvement across all distance thresholds,with the probability of connectivity index improvement reaching up to 4%.This study provides scientific foundations and spatial decision support for ecological network optimization and sustainable governance in arid and semi-arid areas.
