A kind of method of modal identification subject to ambient excitation is presented. A new synthesis stationary signal based on structural response wavelet transform and wavelet coefficient processes co-integration is...A kind of method of modal identification subject to ambient excitation is presented. A new synthesis stationary signal based on structural response wavelet transform and wavelet coefficient processes co-integration is obtained. The new signal instead of structural response is used in identifying the modal parameters of a non- stationary system, combined with the method of modal identification under stationary random excitation-the NExT method and the adjusted continuous least square method. The numerical results show that the method can eliminate the non-stationarity of structural response subject to non-stationary random excitation to a great extent, and is highly precise and robust.展开更多
Based on the statistical data of Huixian from 1992 to 2010, we analyze the long-term and short-term relationship between Huixian's methane energy development and GDP by using co-integration test and error correcti...Based on the statistical data of Huixian from 1992 to 2010, we analyze the long-term and short-term relationship between Huixian's methane energy development and GDP by using co-integration test and error correction model. The empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between methane energy and GDP in the city of Huixian, and which is the one-way Granger causality of methane and GDP. In conclusion, the paper puts forward some steps about spurring economic growth, methane development and utilization in Huixian.展开更多
The thesis selects freight volume and passenger capacity from 1978 to 2008 in Zhejiang Province and the total output value of the primary industry as the object of research,uses quantitative method of co-integration a...The thesis selects freight volume and passenger capacity from 1978 to 2008 in Zhejiang Province and the total output value of the primary industry as the object of research,uses quantitative method of co-integration analysis to analyze the freight volume and passenger capacity,and the total output value of the primary industry in Zhejiang Province.After the stationary test of the time sequence,I conduct the regression analysis of the relationship between freight volume and the total output value of agriculture,and the relationship between passenger capacity and the total output value of agriculture.In addition,I conduct Granger causality test of the relationship between freight volume and passenger capacity,and the total output value of agriculture.The results show that the transportation of Zhejiang Province has promoted the development of agricultural economy prominently,and the development of agricultural economy plays indistinctive role in promoting the transportation volume in Zhejiang Province.展开更多
This article describes a study by co-integration test and Granger causality test on the relationships between China's services trades and employment using the data of services trade from the WTO website and the em...This article describes a study by co-integration test and Granger causality test on the relationships between China's services trades and employment using the data of services trade from the WTO website and the employment data from China Statistic Yearbook for the years from 1982 to 2003. Co-integration test showed that 1% increase in export value and import value of services created respectively 0.205% and 0.068 7% more job opportunities in the service sector. Both export and import of services impacted positively on employment in service industry, and export did more than import. However, in the short run, the impacts of services export and import on employment in service industry were both very small, though positive; and the impacts of employment in service industry on both export and import of services were very big, but not stable. Granger causality test indicated that employment in service industry was a Granger cause of services export. The findings highlight the importance of facilitating services import and reducing import barriers, and suggest that the competitiveness of China's labor- intensive services trade can be exploited to boost services export and help employment in service sector, and that the structure of services trade should be optimized by shifting from labor-intensive to knowledge-and technology-intensive services thus to enhance China's competitiveness of services export.展开更多
A vector autoregressive model was developed for a sample of container carrier time charter rates. Although the series of time charter rates are themselves found non-stationary, thus precluding the use of many modeling...A vector autoregressive model was developed for a sample of container carrier time charter rates. Although the series of time charter rates are themselves found non-stationary, thus precluding the use of many modeling methodologies, evidence provided by co-integration tests points to the existence of stable long-term relationships between the series. An assessment of the forecasts derived from the model suggests that the spec-ification of these long-term relationships does not improve the accuracy of long-term forecasts. These results are interpreted as a corroboration of the efficient market hypothesis.展开更多
In accordance with the economic data from Statistical Communique on National Economy and Social Development in Hubei Province in the period 1980-2009,we use co-integration analysis method to research the impact of GDP...In accordance with the economic data from Statistical Communique on National Economy and Social Development in Hubei Province in the period 1980-2009,we use co-integration analysis method to research the impact of GDP growth on residents'consumer spending.Result shows that although there are differences between GDP and residents'consumer spending in the short term,the equilibrium relationship exists between them,namely,the co-integration relationship,showing consistency in trends.展开更多
Koyna region, a seismically active region, has many time series observations such as seismicity, reservoir water levels, and many bore well water levels. One of these series is used to predict others since these param...Koyna region, a seismically active region, has many time series observations such as seismicity, reservoir water levels, and many bore well water levels. One of these series is used to predict others since these parameters are interlinked. If these series were stationary, we used correlation analysis. However, it is seen that maximum of these time series are nonstationary. In this case, co-integration method is used that is extracted from econometrics and forecast is possible. We have applied this methodology to study time series of reservoir water levels of this region and we find them to be co-integrated. Therefore, forecast of water levels for one of the reservoir is done from the other as these will never drift apart too much. The outcomes demonstrate that a joint modelling of both data sets based on underlying physics resolves to be sparingly useful for understanding predictability issues in reservoir induced seismicity.展开更多
By applying co-integration analysis,the Granger causality test and an error correction model,the dependency between the energy consumption and the gross domestic product of China was examined.In a further step an anal...By applying co-integration analysis,the Granger causality test and an error correction model,the dependency between the energy consumption and the gross domestic product of China was examined.In a further step an analysis was done to establish a correlation between the economic growth of different industries and China's energy consumption.An evidence-based study showed that a co-integration relationship exists between the gross energy consumption and the GDP of China and that the two variables possess bi-directional causality.The energy consumption for the secondary industry has a markedly stimulative effect to the economic growth.This paper also uses an error correction model(ECM)to explain the short-term behavior of energy demands.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to puts forward suggestions for the sustainable development of mineral resources by combining the benefit of economy from mineral resources with the introduction of concept of circular eco...The purpose of this paper is to puts forward suggestions for the sustainable development of mineral resources by combining the benefit of economy from mineral resources with the introduction of concept of circular economic development.展开更多
With the increasing integration of large-scale distributed energy resources into the grid,traditional distribution network optimization and dispatch methods struggle to address the challenges posed by both generation ...With the increasing integration of large-scale distributed energy resources into the grid,traditional distribution network optimization and dispatch methods struggle to address the challenges posed by both generation and load.Accounting for these issues,this paper proposes a multi-timescale coordinated optimization dispatch method for distribution networks.First,the probability box theory was employed to determine the uncertainty intervals of generation and load forecasts,based on which,the requirements for flexibility dispatch and capacity constraints of the grid were calculated and analyzed.Subsequently,a multi-timescale optimization framework was constructed,incorporating the generation and load forecast uncertainties.This framework included optimization models for dayahead scheduling,intra-day optimization,and real-time adjustments,aiming to meet flexibility needs across different timescales and improve the economic efficiency of the grid.Furthermore,an improved soft actor-critic algorithm was introduced to enhance the uncertainty exploration capability.Utilizing a centralized training and decentralized execution framework,a multi-agent SAC network model was developed to improve the decision-making efficiency of the agents.Finally,the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method were validated using a modified IEEE-33 bus test system.展开更多
Objective To study the possible relationship between the output of new products in China’s pharmaceutical industry and the investment in research and development(R&D),and to provide a theoretical basis for the de...Objective To study the possible relationship between the output of new products in China’s pharmaceutical industry and the investment in research and development(R&D),and to provide a theoretical basis for the decision-making of relevant enterprises and institutions.Methods The econometric software Stata 14 was used to perform unit root test on the relevant data.Then,a co-integration regression equation was established after stabilization,which was analyzed through co-integration test(E-G two-step method).Results and Conclusion There is a long-term equilibrium and short-term error correction relationship between the output of new products and the investment of R&D funds in China’s pharmaceutical industry.During the lagging periods from 1 to 6,R&D investment is the Granger reason for the output of new products.The investment of R&D funds has a positive effect on the output of new products and the effect is significant.Therefore,more investment should be made in R&D to enhance the output of new products.展开更多
Effective source-load prediction and reasonable dispatching are crucial to realize the economic and reliable operations of integrated energy systems(IESs).They can overcome the challenges introduced by the uncertainti...Effective source-load prediction and reasonable dispatching are crucial to realize the economic and reliable operations of integrated energy systems(IESs).They can overcome the challenges introduced by the uncertainties of new energies and various types of loads in the IES.Accordingly,a robust optimal dispatching method for the IES based on a robust economic model predictive control(REMPC)strategy considering source-load power interval prediction is proposed.First,an operation model of the IES is established,and an interval prediction model based on the bidirectional long short-term memory network optimized by beetle antenna search and bootstrap is formulated and applied to predict the photovoltaic power and the cooling,heating,and electrical loads.Then,an optimal dispatching scheme based on REMPC is devised for the IES.The source-load interval prediction results are used to improve the robustness of the REPMC and reduce the influence of source-load uncertainties on dispatching.An actual IES case is selected to conduct simulations;the results show that compared with other prediction techniques,the proposed method has higher prediction interval coverage probability and prediction interval normalized averaged width.Moreover,the operational cost of the IES is decreased by the REMPC strategy.With the devised dispatching scheme,the ability of the IES to handle the dispatching risk caused by prediction errors is enhanced.Improved dispatching robustness and operational economy are also achieved.展开更多
To optimize peaking operation when high proportion new energy accesses to power grid,evaluation indexes are proposed which simultaneously consider wind-solar complementation and source-load coupling.A typical wind-sol...To optimize peaking operation when high proportion new energy accesses to power grid,evaluation indexes are proposed which simultaneously consider wind-solar complementation and source-load coupling.A typical wind-solar power output scene model based on peaking demand is established which has anti-peaking characteristic.This model uses balancing scenes and key scenes with probability distribution based on improved Latin hypercube sampling(LHS)algorithm and scene reduction technology to illustrate the influence of wind-solar on peaking demand.Based on this,a peak shaving operation optimization model of high proportion new energy power generation is established.The various operating indexes after optimization in multi-scene peaking are calculated,and the ability of power grid peaking operation is compared whth that considering wind-solar complementation and source-load coupling.Finally,a case of high proportion new energy verifies the feasibility and validity of the proposed operation strategy.展开更多
To better reduce the carbon emissions of a park-integrated energy system(PIES),optimize the comprehensive operating cost,and smooth the load curve,a source-load flexible response model based on the comprehensive evalu...To better reduce the carbon emissions of a park-integrated energy system(PIES),optimize the comprehensive operating cost,and smooth the load curve,a source-load flexible response model based on the comprehensive evaluation index is proposed.Firstly,a source-load flexible response model is proposed under the stepped carbon trading mechanism;the organic Rankine cycle is introduced into the source-side to construct a flexible response model with traditional combined heat and power(CHP)unit and electric boiler to realize the flexible response of CHP to load;and the load-side categorizes loads into transferable,interruptible,and substitutable loads according to the load characteristics and establishes a comprehensive demand response model.Secondly,the analytic network process(ANP)considers the linkages between indicators and allows decision-makers to consider the interactions of elements in a complex dynamic system,resulting in more realistic indicator assignment values.Considering the economy,energy efficiency,and environment,the PIES optimization operation model based on the ANP comprehensive evaluation index is constructed to optimize the system operation comprehensively.Finally,the CPLEX solver inMATLABwas employed to solve the problem.The results of the example showthat the source-load flexible response model proposed in this paper reduces the operating cost of the system by 29.90%,improves the comprehensive utilization rate by 15.00%,and reduces the carbon emission by 26.98%,which effectively enhances the system’s economy and low carbon,and the comprehensive evaluation index based on the ANP reaches 0.95,which takes into account the economy,energy efficiency,and the environment,and is more superior than the single evaluation index.展开更多
Due to the phenomenon of abandoning wind power and photo voltage(PV)power in the“Three Northern Areas”in China,this paper presents an optimal strategy for coordinating and dispatching“source-load”in power system b...Due to the phenomenon of abandoning wind power and photo voltage(PV)power in the“Three Northern Areas”in China,this paper presents an optimal strategy for coordinating and dispatching“source-load”in power system based on multiple time scales.On the basis of the analysis of the uncertainty of wind power and PV power as well as the characteristics of load side resource dispatching,the optimal model of coordinating and dispatching“source-load”in power system based on multiple time scales is established.It can simultaneously and effectively dispatch conventional generators,wind plant,PV power station,pumped-storage power station and load side resources by optimally using three time scales:day-ahead,intra-day and real-time.According to the latest predicted information of wind power,PV power and load,the original generation schedule can be rolled and amended by using the corresponding time scale.The effectiveness of the model can be verified by a real system.The simulation results show that the proposed model can make full use of“source-load”resources to improve the ability to consume wind power and PV power of the grid-connected system.展开更多
With the increasing integration of emerging source-load types such as distributed photovoltaics,electric vehicles,and energy storage into distribution networks,the operational characteristics of these networks have ev...With the increasing integration of emerging source-load types such as distributed photovoltaics,electric vehicles,and energy storage into distribution networks,the operational characteristics of these networks have evolved from traditional single-load centers to complex multi-source,multi-load systems.This transition not only increases the difficulty of effectively classifying distribution networks due to their heightened complexity but also renders traditional energy management approaches-primarily focused on economic objectives-insufficient to meet the growing demands for flexible scheduling and dynamic response.To address these challenges,this paper proposes an adaptive multi-objective energy management strategy that accounts for the distinct operational requirements of distribution networks with a high penetration of new-type source-loads.The goal is to establish a comprehensive energy management framework that optimally balances energy efficiency,carbon reduction,and economic performance in modern distribution networks.To enhance classification accuracy,the strategy constructs amulti-dimensional scenario classification model that integrates environmental and climatic factors by analyzing the operational characteristics of new-type distribution networks and incorporating expert knowledge.An improved split-coupling K-means preclustering algorithm is employed to classify distribution networks effectively.Based on the classification results,fuzzy logic control is then utilized to dynamically optimize the weighting of each objective,allowing for an adaptive adjustment of priorities to achieve a flexible and responsivemulti-objective energy management strategy.The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated through practical case studies.Simulation results indicate that the proposed method improves classification accuracy by 18.18%compared to traditional classification methods and enhances energy savings and carbon reduction by 4.34%and 20.94%,respectively,compared to the fixed-weight strategy.展开更多
How to achieve the objective of reducing CO2 emissions has been an academic focus in China recently. The factors influencing CO2 emissions are the vital issue to accomplish the arduous target. Firstly, three influenti...How to achieve the objective of reducing CO2 emissions has been an academic focus in China recently. The factors influencing CO2 emissions are the vital issue to accomplish the arduous target. Firstly, three influential factors, the energy consumption, the proportion of tertiary industry in gross domestic product （GDP）, and the degree of dependence on foreign trade, are carefully selected, since all of them have closer grey relation with China＇s COz emissions compared with others when the grey relational analysis （GRA） method is applied. The study highlights co-integration relation of these four variables using the co-integration analysis method. And then a long-term co-integration equation and a short-term error correction model of China＇s CO2 emissions are devel- oped. Finally, the comparison is exerted between the forecast value and the actual value of China＇s CO2 emissions based on error correction model. The results and the relevant statistics tests show that the pro- posed model has better explanation capability and credibility.展开更多
Agriculture is the basic industry of China and the support of all other industries. In order to clarify the impact of urbanization on China＇s agriculture, a cointegration test was conducted between the urbanization r...Agriculture is the basic industry of China and the support of all other industries. In order to clarify the impact of urbanization on China＇s agriculture, a cointegration test was conducted between the urbanization rate and the total agricultural output value in China during the past 30 years of 1986-2015. The results showed that the development of urbanization and agricultural economy had no severe effect on weakening the agricultural economy in China, while on the contrary, there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two, which was only limited to a certain range, and in the future high development of urbanization of China, the development of agricultural economy would face great challenges. Therefore, China should specify cultivated land use, strengthen the supervision standard of land circulation; increase investment in science and technology, improve the efficiency of agricultural output; optimize financial support for agriculture, enhance the enthusiasm of farmers; cultivate new agricultural operators, promote the process of agricultural industrialization, so as to form economies of scale and explore a new road of urbanization which is not at the expense of the cost of agricultural economy.展开更多
By using error correction model, I conduct co-integration analysis on the research of the relationship between the per capita practical consumption and per capita practical disposable income of urban residents in Huna...By using error correction model, I conduct co-integration analysis on the research of the relationship between the per capita practical consumption and per capita practical disposable income of urban residents in Hunan Province from 1978 to 2009. The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between the per capita practical consumption and the practical per capita disposable income of urban residents, and based on these, the corresponding error correction model is established. Finally, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward as follows: broaden the income channel of urban residents; create goods consuming environment; perfect socialist security system.展开更多
According to the data from Investigation Report of Land Use Change in China,The Land Resources Communique of China and Chronicle of Statistical Data for Five Decades of New China issued from Ministry of Land Resources...According to the data from Investigation Report of Land Use Change in China,The Land Resources Communique of China and Chronicle of Statistical Data for Five Decades of New China issued from Ministry of Land Resources,we select two indices:change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection.According to econometric theory,by using Eviewes 5.1 software,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test,impulse response and other analysis methods,we analyze the relationship between change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection in China since the reform and opening-up.The results show that there is long-term balanced relationship between change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection,and there is a certain mechanism restricting motion of variables between the two so as to make the two deviate from each other little and step towards balance in the long run;there is unilateral causality relationship between farmland change and policy of farmland protection,namely that the farmland change is the Granger cause of policy of farmland protection,while policy of farmland protection is not the Granger cause of farmland change;impulse response and variance decomposition indicate that farmland change plays the role of promoting policy of farmland protection continuously,and the role is strengthened along with prolonged lag period;the policy of farmland protection has strong inertia,because it is impacted by the former level of itself,and the policy of farmland protection plays insignificant role in promoting farmland quantity.Consequently,the important approach of solving problem of rapid decrease of farmland is to formulate long-term strategy,strengthen theoretical research of farmland protection and reinforce degree of formulation,implementation and surveillance of farmland protection policy.展开更多
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No50278017)
文摘A kind of method of modal identification subject to ambient excitation is presented. A new synthesis stationary signal based on structural response wavelet transform and wavelet coefficient processes co-integration is obtained. The new signal instead of structural response is used in identifying the modal parameters of a non- stationary system, combined with the method of modal identification under stationary random excitation-the NExT method and the adjusted continuous least square method. The numerical results show that the method can eliminate the non-stationarity of structural response subject to non-stationary random excitation to a great extent, and is highly precise and robust.
文摘Based on the statistical data of Huixian from 1992 to 2010, we analyze the long-term and short-term relationship between Huixian's methane energy development and GDP by using co-integration test and error correction model. The empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between methane energy and GDP in the city of Huixian, and which is the one-way Granger causality of methane and GDP. In conclusion, the paper puts forward some steps about spurring economic growth, methane development and utilization in Huixian.
基金Supported by the Program of Characteristic Major(International Economy and Trade)of Zhejiang Province in the Year 2009(TZZ09084)
文摘The thesis selects freight volume and passenger capacity from 1978 to 2008 in Zhejiang Province and the total output value of the primary industry as the object of research,uses quantitative method of co-integration analysis to analyze the freight volume and passenger capacity,and the total output value of the primary industry in Zhejiang Province.After the stationary test of the time sequence,I conduct the regression analysis of the relationship between freight volume and the total output value of agriculture,and the relationship between passenger capacity and the total output value of agriculture.In addition,I conduct Granger causality test of the relationship between freight volume and passenger capacity,and the total output value of agriculture.The results show that the transportation of Zhejiang Province has promoted the development of agricultural economy prominently,and the development of agricultural economy plays indistinctive role in promoting the transportation volume in Zhejiang Province.
文摘This article describes a study by co-integration test and Granger causality test on the relationships between China's services trades and employment using the data of services trade from the WTO website and the employment data from China Statistic Yearbook for the years from 1982 to 2003. Co-integration test showed that 1% increase in export value and import value of services created respectively 0.205% and 0.068 7% more job opportunities in the service sector. Both export and import of services impacted positively on employment in service industry, and export did more than import. However, in the short run, the impacts of services export and import on employment in service industry were both very small, though positive; and the impacts of employment in service industry on both export and import of services were very big, but not stable. Granger causality test indicated that employment in service industry was a Granger cause of services export. The findings highlight the importance of facilitating services import and reducing import barriers, and suggest that the competitiveness of China's labor- intensive services trade can be exploited to boost services export and help employment in service sector, and that the structure of services trade should be optimized by shifting from labor-intensive to knowledge-and technology-intensive services thus to enhance China's competitiveness of services export.
文摘A vector autoregressive model was developed for a sample of container carrier time charter rates. Although the series of time charter rates are themselves found non-stationary, thus precluding the use of many modeling methodologies, evidence provided by co-integration tests points to the existence of stable long-term relationships between the series. An assessment of the forecasts derived from the model suggests that the spec-ification of these long-term relationships does not improve the accuracy of long-term forecasts. These results are interpreted as a corroboration of the efficient market hypothesis.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation(60873021/F0201)
文摘In accordance with the economic data from Statistical Communique on National Economy and Social Development in Hubei Province in the period 1980-2009,we use co-integration analysis method to research the impact of GDP growth on residents'consumer spending.Result shows that although there are differences between GDP and residents'consumer spending in the short term,the equilibrium relationship exists between them,namely,the co-integration relationship,showing consistency in trends.
文摘Koyna region, a seismically active region, has many time series observations such as seismicity, reservoir water levels, and many bore well water levels. One of these series is used to predict others since these parameters are interlinked. If these series were stationary, we used correlation analysis. However, it is seen that maximum of these time series are nonstationary. In this case, co-integration method is used that is extracted from econometrics and forecast is possible. We have applied this methodology to study time series of reservoir water levels of this region and we find them to be co-integrated. Therefore, forecast of water levels for one of the reservoir is done from the other as these will never drift apart too much. The outcomes demonstrate that a joint modelling of both data sets based on underlying physics resolves to be sparingly useful for understanding predictability issues in reservoir induced seismicity.
基金Projects TSFZLXKF2006-3 supported by the China Lixin Risk Management Research Institute Foundation of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission90210035 by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘By applying co-integration analysis,the Granger causality test and an error correction model,the dependency between the energy consumption and the gross domestic product of China was examined.In a further step an analysis was done to establish a correlation between the economic growth of different industries and China's energy consumption.An evidence-based study showed that a co-integration relationship exists between the gross energy consumption and the GDP of China and that the two variables possess bi-directional causality.The energy consumption for the secondary industry has a markedly stimulative effect to the economic growth.This paper also uses an error correction model(ECM)to explain the short-term behavior of energy demands.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to puts forward suggestions for the sustainable development of mineral resources by combining the benefit of economy from mineral resources with the introduction of concept of circular economic development.
基金funded by Jilin Province Science and Technology Development Plan Project,grant number 20220203163SF.
文摘With the increasing integration of large-scale distributed energy resources into the grid,traditional distribution network optimization and dispatch methods struggle to address the challenges posed by both generation and load.Accounting for these issues,this paper proposes a multi-timescale coordinated optimization dispatch method for distribution networks.First,the probability box theory was employed to determine the uncertainty intervals of generation and load forecasts,based on which,the requirements for flexibility dispatch and capacity constraints of the grid were calculated and analyzed.Subsequently,a multi-timescale optimization framework was constructed,incorporating the generation and load forecast uncertainties.This framework included optimization models for dayahead scheduling,intra-day optimization,and real-time adjustments,aiming to meet flexibility needs across different timescales and improve the economic efficiency of the grid.Furthermore,an improved soft actor-critic algorithm was introduced to enhance the uncertainty exploration capability.Utilizing a centralized training and decentralized execution framework,a multi-agent SAC network model was developed to improve the decision-making efficiency of the agents.Finally,the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method were validated using a modified IEEE-33 bus test system.
基金Research on Innovation and Development Strategy of Pharmaceutical Industry in Liaoning Province(2020lslktyb-095).
文摘Objective To study the possible relationship between the output of new products in China’s pharmaceutical industry and the investment in research and development(R&D),and to provide a theoretical basis for the decision-making of relevant enterprises and institutions.Methods The econometric software Stata 14 was used to perform unit root test on the relevant data.Then,a co-integration regression equation was established after stabilization,which was analyzed through co-integration test(E-G two-step method).Results and Conclusion There is a long-term equilibrium and short-term error correction relationship between the output of new products and the investment of R&D funds in China’s pharmaceutical industry.During the lagging periods from 1 to 6,R&D investment is the Granger reason for the output of new products.The investment of R&D funds has a positive effect on the output of new products and the effect is significant.Therefore,more investment should be made in R&D to enhance the output of new products.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Project of China(2018YFE0122200).
文摘Effective source-load prediction and reasonable dispatching are crucial to realize the economic and reliable operations of integrated energy systems(IESs).They can overcome the challenges introduced by the uncertainties of new energies and various types of loads in the IES.Accordingly,a robust optimal dispatching method for the IES based on a robust economic model predictive control(REMPC)strategy considering source-load power interval prediction is proposed.First,an operation model of the IES is established,and an interval prediction model based on the bidirectional long short-term memory network optimized by beetle antenna search and bootstrap is formulated and applied to predict the photovoltaic power and the cooling,heating,and electrical loads.Then,an optimal dispatching scheme based on REMPC is devised for the IES.The source-load interval prediction results are used to improve the robustness of the REPMC and reduce the influence of source-load uncertainties on dispatching.An actual IES case is selected to conduct simulations;the results show that compared with other prediction techniques,the proposed method has higher prediction interval coverage probability and prediction interval normalized averaged width.Moreover,the operational cost of the IES is decreased by the REMPC strategy.With the devised dispatching scheme,the ability of the IES to handle the dispatching risk caused by prediction errors is enhanced.Improved dispatching robustness and operational economy are also achieved.
基金Youth Science and Technology Fund Project of Gansu Province(No.18JR3RA011)Major Projects in Gansu Province(No.17ZD2GA010)+1 种基金Science and Technology Projects Funding of State Grid Corporation(No.522727160001)Science and Technology Projects of State Grid Gansu Electric Power Company(No.52272716000K)
文摘To optimize peaking operation when high proportion new energy accesses to power grid,evaluation indexes are proposed which simultaneously consider wind-solar complementation and source-load coupling.A typical wind-solar power output scene model based on peaking demand is established which has anti-peaking characteristic.This model uses balancing scenes and key scenes with probability distribution based on improved Latin hypercube sampling(LHS)algorithm and scene reduction technology to illustrate the influence of wind-solar on peaking demand.Based on this,a peak shaving operation optimization model of high proportion new energy power generation is established.The various operating indexes after optimization in multi-scene peaking are calculated,and the ability of power grid peaking operation is compared whth that considering wind-solar complementation and source-load coupling.Finally,a case of high proportion new energy verifies the feasibility and validity of the proposed operation strategy.
文摘To better reduce the carbon emissions of a park-integrated energy system(PIES),optimize the comprehensive operating cost,and smooth the load curve,a source-load flexible response model based on the comprehensive evaluation index is proposed.Firstly,a source-load flexible response model is proposed under the stepped carbon trading mechanism;the organic Rankine cycle is introduced into the source-side to construct a flexible response model with traditional combined heat and power(CHP)unit and electric boiler to realize the flexible response of CHP to load;and the load-side categorizes loads into transferable,interruptible,and substitutable loads according to the load characteristics and establishes a comprehensive demand response model.Secondly,the analytic network process(ANP)considers the linkages between indicators and allows decision-makers to consider the interactions of elements in a complex dynamic system,resulting in more realistic indicator assignment values.Considering the economy,energy efficiency,and environment,the PIES optimization operation model based on the ANP comprehensive evaluation index is constructed to optimize the system operation comprehensively.Finally,the CPLEX solver inMATLABwas employed to solve the problem.The results of the example showthat the source-load flexible response model proposed in this paper reduces the operating cost of the system by 29.90%,improves the comprehensive utilization rate by 15.00%,and reduces the carbon emission by 26.98%,which effectively enhances the system’s economy and low carbon,and the comprehensive evaluation index based on the ANP reaches 0.95,which takes into account the economy,energy efficiency,and the environment,and is more superior than the single evaluation index.
基金Major Projects of Gansu Province(No.17ZD2GA010)Power Company Technology Projects of State Grid Corporation in Gansu Province(No.52272716000K)
文摘Due to the phenomenon of abandoning wind power and photo voltage(PV)power in the“Three Northern Areas”in China,this paper presents an optimal strategy for coordinating and dispatching“source-load”in power system based on multiple time scales.On the basis of the analysis of the uncertainty of wind power and PV power as well as the characteristics of load side resource dispatching,the optimal model of coordinating and dispatching“source-load”in power system based on multiple time scales is established.It can simultaneously and effectively dispatch conventional generators,wind plant,PV power station,pumped-storage power station and load side resources by optimally using three time scales:day-ahead,intra-day and real-time.According to the latest predicted information of wind power,PV power and load,the original generation schedule can be rolled and amended by using the corresponding time scale.The effectiveness of the model can be verified by a real system.The simulation results show that the proposed model can make full use of“source-load”resources to improve the ability to consume wind power and PV power of the grid-connected system.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of the Headquarters of the State Grid Corporation(project code:5400-202323233A-1-1-ZN).
文摘With the increasing integration of emerging source-load types such as distributed photovoltaics,electric vehicles,and energy storage into distribution networks,the operational characteristics of these networks have evolved from traditional single-load centers to complex multi-source,multi-load systems.This transition not only increases the difficulty of effectively classifying distribution networks due to their heightened complexity but also renders traditional energy management approaches-primarily focused on economic objectives-insufficient to meet the growing demands for flexible scheduling and dynamic response.To address these challenges,this paper proposes an adaptive multi-objective energy management strategy that accounts for the distinct operational requirements of distribution networks with a high penetration of new-type source-loads.The goal is to establish a comprehensive energy management framework that optimally balances energy efficiency,carbon reduction,and economic performance in modern distribution networks.To enhance classification accuracy,the strategy constructs amulti-dimensional scenario classification model that integrates environmental and climatic factors by analyzing the operational characteristics of new-type distribution networks and incorporating expert knowledge.An improved split-coupling K-means preclustering algorithm is employed to classify distribution networks effectively.Based on the classification results,fuzzy logic control is then utilized to dynamically optimize the weighting of each objective,allowing for an adaptive adjustment of priorities to achieve a flexible and responsivemulti-objective energy management strategy.The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated through practical case studies.Simulation results indicate that the proposed method improves classification accuracy by 18.18%compared to traditional classification methods and enhances energy savings and carbon reduction by 4.34%and 20.94%,respectively,compared to the fixed-weight strategy.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41101569)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project(2011M500965)+5 种基金the Jiangsu Funds of Social Science(11EYC023)the Doctoral Discipline New Teachers Fund(20110095120002)the Jiangsu Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project(1102088C)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(JGJ110763)the Talent Introduction Funds of China University of Mining and Technologythe Sail Plan Funds for Young Teachers of China University of Mining and Technology~~
文摘How to achieve the objective of reducing CO2 emissions has been an academic focus in China recently. The factors influencing CO2 emissions are the vital issue to accomplish the arduous target. Firstly, three influential factors, the energy consumption, the proportion of tertiary industry in gross domestic product （GDP）, and the degree of dependence on foreign trade, are carefully selected, since all of them have closer grey relation with China＇s COz emissions compared with others when the grey relational analysis （GRA） method is applied. The study highlights co-integration relation of these four variables using the co-integration analysis method. And then a long-term co-integration equation and a short-term error correction model of China＇s CO2 emissions are devel- oped. Finally, the comparison is exerted between the forecast value and the actual value of China＇s CO2 emissions based on error correction model. The results and the relevant statistics tests show that the pro- posed model has better explanation capability and credibility.
文摘Agriculture is the basic industry of China and the support of all other industries. In order to clarify the impact of urbanization on China＇s agriculture, a cointegration test was conducted between the urbanization rate and the total agricultural output value in China during the past 30 years of 1986-2015. The results showed that the development of urbanization and agricultural economy had no severe effect on weakening the agricultural economy in China, while on the contrary, there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two, which was only limited to a certain range, and in the future high development of urbanization of China, the development of agricultural economy would face great challenges. Therefore, China should specify cultivated land use, strengthen the supervision standard of land circulation; increase investment in science and technology, improve the efficiency of agricultural output; optimize financial support for agriculture, enhance the enthusiasm of farmers; cultivate new agricultural operators, promote the process of agricultural industrialization, so as to form economies of scale and explore a new road of urbanization which is not at the expense of the cost of agricultural economy.
基金Supported by the Scientific Research Subject of Department of Education in Hunan Province(10C0556)
文摘By using error correction model, I conduct co-integration analysis on the research of the relationship between the per capita practical consumption and per capita practical disposable income of urban residents in Hunan Province from 1978 to 2009. The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between the per capita practical consumption and the practical per capita disposable income of urban residents, and based on these, the corresponding error correction model is established. Finally, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward as follows: broaden the income channel of urban residents; create goods consuming environment; perfect socialist security system.
文摘According to the data from Investigation Report of Land Use Change in China,The Land Resources Communique of China and Chronicle of Statistical Data for Five Decades of New China issued from Ministry of Land Resources,we select two indices:change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection.According to econometric theory,by using Eviewes 5.1 software,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test,impulse response and other analysis methods,we analyze the relationship between change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection in China since the reform and opening-up.The results show that there is long-term balanced relationship between change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection,and there is a certain mechanism restricting motion of variables between the two so as to make the two deviate from each other little and step towards balance in the long run;there is unilateral causality relationship between farmland change and policy of farmland protection,namely that the farmland change is the Granger cause of policy of farmland protection,while policy of farmland protection is not the Granger cause of farmland change;impulse response and variance decomposition indicate that farmland change plays the role of promoting policy of farmland protection continuously,and the role is strengthened along with prolonged lag period;the policy of farmland protection has strong inertia,because it is impacted by the former level of itself,and the policy of farmland protection plays insignificant role in promoting farmland quantity.Consequently,the important approach of solving problem of rapid decrease of farmland is to formulate long-term strategy,strengthen theoretical research of farmland protection and reinforce degree of formulation,implementation and surveillance of farmland protection policy.
