Department of Physics, Faculty of Natural Science and Technology, Tay Nguyen university has collaborated with Stanford Solar Center of Stanford university on Space Weather monitor project. We have developed the TNU-Su...Department of Physics, Faculty of Natural Science and Technology, Tay Nguyen university has collaborated with Stanford Solar Center of Stanford university on Space Weather monitor project. We have developed the TNU-SuperSID teaching module which has three main parts： antenna, preamplifier and data logger. This module can detect the variation of Very Low Frequency （VLF, 3 - 30 kHz） signals during sunrise and sunset transition, and sudden ionospheric disturbance due to solar flares. In other word, the behavior of the Earth＇s lower ionosphere corresponding the solar activities is understood by using VLF technique. Our project helps undergraduate students who are learning the astrophysics and space physics to enhance their knowledge in space science and their technical skills with real experiments. Through the participant in this project, students can also be gained their skills such as communication, working in team, processing data, etc.展开更多
The Solar Close Observations and Proximity Experiments(SCOPE)mission will send a spacecraft into the solar atmosphere at a low altitude of just 5 R☉from the solar center.It aims to elucidate the mechanisms behind sol...The Solar Close Observations and Proximity Experiments(SCOPE)mission will send a spacecraft into the solar atmosphere at a low altitude of just 5 R☉from the solar center.It aims to elucidate the mechanisms behind solar eruptions and coronal heating,and to directly measure the coronal magnetic field.The mission will perform in situ measurements of the current sheet between coronal mass ejections and their associated solar flares,and energetic particles produced by either reconnection or fast-mode shocks driven by coronal mass ejections.This will help to resolve the nature of reconnections in current sheets,and energetic particle acceleration regions.To investigate coronal heating,the mission will observe nano-flares on scales smaller than 70 km in the solar corona and regions smaller than 40 km in the photosphere,where magnetohydrodynamic waves originate.To study solar wind acceleration mechanisms,the mission will also track the process of ion charge-state freezing in the solar wind.A key achievement will be the observation of the coronal magnetic field at unprecedented proximity to the solar photosphere.The polar regions will also be observed at close range,and the inner edge of the solar system dust disk may be identified for the first time.This work presents the detailed background,science,and mission concept of SCOPE and discusses how we aim to address the questions mentioned above.展开更多
The evolution of solar magnetic fields is significant for understanding and predicting solar activities.And our knowledge of solar magnetic fields largely depends on the photospheric magnetic field.In this paper,based...The evolution of solar magnetic fields is significant for understanding and predicting solar activities.And our knowledge of solar magnetic fields largely depends on the photospheric magnetic field.In this paper,based on the spherical harmonic expansion of the photospheric magnetic field observed by Wilcox Solar Observatory,we analyze the time series of spherical harmonic coefficients and predict Sunspot Number as well as synoptic maps for Solar Cycle 25.We find that solar maximum years have complex short-period disturbances,and the time series of coefficient g_(7)~0 is nearly in-phase with Sunspot Number,which may be related to solar meridional circulation.Utilizing Long Short-Term Memory networks(LSTM),our prediction suggests that the maximum of Solar Cycle 25 is likely to occur in June 2024 with an error of 8 months,the peak sunspot number may be 166.9±22.6,and the next solar minimum may occur around January 2031.By incorporating Empirical Mode Decomposition,we enhance our forecast of synoptic maps truncated to Order 5,validating their relative reliability.This prediction not only addresses a gap in forecasting the global distribution of the solar magnetic field but also holds potential reference value for forthcoming solar observation plans.展开更多
Solar cycles are fundamental to astrophysics,space exploration,technological infrastructure,and Earth's climate.A better understanding of these cycles and their history can aid in risk mitigation on Earth,while al...Solar cycles are fundamental to astrophysics,space exploration,technological infrastructure,and Earth's climate.A better understanding of these cycles and their history can aid in risk mitigation on Earth,while also deepening our knowledge of stellar physics and solar system dynamics.Determining the solar cycles between 1600 and 1700-especially the post-1645 Maunder Minimum,characterized by significantly reduced solar activity-poses challenges to existing solar activity proxies.This study utilizes a new red equatorial auroral catalog from ancient Korean texts to establish solar cycle patterns from 1623 to 1700.Remarkably,a further reevaluation of the solar cycles between 1610 and 1755 identified a total of 13 cycles,diverging from the widely accepted record of 12 cycles during that time.This research enhances our understanding of historical solar activity,and underscores the importance of integrating diverse historical sources into modern analyses.展开更多
In this study, we examined variability of sun-related energies, auroral electrojet current, ring current, and magnetopause current during solar cycles 23 and 24. The study revealed a dependence of sun-related energies...In this study, we examined variability of sun-related energies, auroral electrojet current, ring current, and magnetopause current during solar cycles 23 and 24. The study revealed a dependence of sun-related energies to the Sun and Earth currents systems with solar activity from 1996 to 2019. A decrease in the correlation between sun-related energies and sunspot number was observed over solar cycles 23 and 24 (0.88 for the solar cycle 23 and 0.66 for the solar cycle 24), with a drop in the speed of magnetic disturbances in the solar wind. These results could be attributed to the decrease in Sun’s magnetic field toroidal component magnitude induced by a weak in sunspots number and solar flares during the solar cycle 24. A weak in the Earth currents systems (auroral electrojet current, ring current, and magnetopause current) is also observed. During the decrease in the Earth currents, several peaks are observed, indicating a nonlinear dependence in the Earth currents variation (ring current, auroral electrojet current, and magnetopause current) from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24. This could be attributed to the Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) observed during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 and the deep minimum preceding solar cycle 24.展开更多
The Sun is the primary energy source driving the Earth's climate system.A prevailing hypothesis suggests that even minor variations in solar activity,when amplified by climate system feedback mechanisms,can induce...The Sun is the primary energy source driving the Earth's climate system.A prevailing hypothesis suggests that even minor variations in solar activity,when amplified by climate system feedback mechanisms,can induce significant climatic changes on decadal to centennial timescales.However,the limited availability of historical winter climate proxies has impeded consensus on how solar variability influences the long-term winter climate in Northeast Asia,particularly during Grand Solar Minima(GMs).In this study,we analyzed daily-resolution snowfall records in Seoul from 1625 to 1907 CE,derived from the Korean official historical chronicle Seungjeongweon Ilgi.This period encompasses both the Maunder Minimum(1645–1715 CE)and the Dalton Minimum(1790–1830 CE)of solar activity.Our findings indicate that during the GMs,the first date of annual snowfall(FDS)was delayed by approximately 10 days,and the average annual snowfall frequency(ASF)was reduced by half compared to non-GM periods.Additionally,while an 11-year solar cycle was evident in the ASF during non-GM periods,this cycle was replaced by a shortened 8-to 9-year cycle during the GMs.These variations suggest a differential regional climatic response to prolonged changes in solar activity,and provide historical insights that enhance our understanding of the potential impact of low solar activity on the winter climate in Northeast Asia.展开更多
The Chinese HαSolar Explorer(CHASE)mission,dubbed as“Xihe”——Goddess of the Sun,was launched on 14 October 2021 as the first solar space mission of China National Space Administration(CNSA).The CHASE mission aims ...The Chinese HαSolar Explorer(CHASE)mission,dubbed as“Xihe”——Goddess of the Sun,was launched on 14 October 2021 as the first solar space mission of China National Space Administration(CNSA).The CHASE mission aims to test an ultra-high precision and stability platform,and to acquire solar HαSpectroscopic observations with high temporal and spectral resolutions.Since its launch,the in-orbit performance of the scientific payload——HαImaging Spectrograph(HIS)has been excellent.The first set of data has been calibrated and analyzed recently.The CHASE science data are expected to advance our understanding of the plasma dynamics in the solar lower atmosphere,and to investigate the Sun as a star for stellar physics.展开更多
This paper discusses that the global worming caused by the green-house gases effect will be equal or less than that of the global cooling resulting from the solar activities. In this respect, we refer to the MDM （Mod...This paper discusses that the global worming caused by the green-house gases effect will be equal or less than that of the global cooling resulting from the solar activities. In this respect, we refer to the MDM （Modern Dalton Minimum） which stated that starting from 2005 to the next 40 years; the earth＇s surface temperature will become cooler than nowadays. However, the degree of cooling, previously mentioned in old Dalton Minimum （c. 210 year ago）, will be minimized by building-up of green-house gases effect during MDM period. Regarding to the periodicities of solar activities, it is clear that we have a new solar cycle of around 210 years now.展开更多
Solar activity (SA) has been hypothesized to be a trigger of earthquakes, although it is not as intuitively associated as other potential triggers such as </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"&g...Solar activity (SA) has been hypothesized to be a trigger of earthquakes, although it is not as intuitively associated as other potential triggers such as </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">tidal stress, rainfall, and the building of artificial water reservoirs. Here, we in</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ves</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">tigate the relation between SA and global earthquake numbers (GEN) by using</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> a deep learning method to test the hypothesis. We use the daily data of GEN </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">and SA (1996/01/01</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">2019/12/31) to construct a temporal convolution netw</span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ork (</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">TCN). From the computational results, we confirm that the TCN captures th</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">e </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">relation between SA and earthquakes with magnitudes from 4.0 to 4.9. We als</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">o </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">find that the TCN achieves better fitting and prediction performance compar</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ed with previous work</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">.展开更多
The modulation of the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation （AO） and the East Asian winter climate by the 11-year solar cycle was investigated. During winters with high solar activity （HS）, robust warming ap...The modulation of the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation （AO） and the East Asian winter climate by the 11-year solar cycle was investigated. During winters with high solar activity （HS）, robust warming appeared in northern Asia in a positive AO phase. This result corresponded to an enhanced anticyclonic flow at 850 hPa over northeastern Asia and a weakened East Asian trough （EAT） at 500 hPa. However, during winters with low solar activity （LS）, both the surface warming and the intensities of the anticyclonic flow and the EAT were much less in the presence of a positive AO phase. The possible atmospheric processes for this 11-year solar-cycle modulation may be attributed to the indirect influence that solar activity induces in the structural changes of AO. During HS winters, the sea level pressure oscillation associated with the AO became stronger, with the significant influence of AO extending to East Asia. In the meantime, the AO-related zonal-mean zonal winds tended to extend more into the stratosphere during HS winters, which implies a stronger coupling to the stratosphere. These trends may have led to an enhanced AO phase difference; thus the associated East Asian climate anomalies became larger and more significant. The situation tended to reverse during LS winters. Further analyses revealed that the relationship between the winter AO and surface-climate anomalies in the following spring is also modulated by the 11-year solar cycle, with significant signals appearing only during HS phases. Solar-cycle variation should be taken into consideration when the AO is used to predict winter and spring climate anomalies over East Asia.展开更多
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall （ISMR） plays an important role in the climate system of South Asia. Recently, studies about ISMR variations have been going into more depth. In this present paper, we mainly use th...The Indian summer monsoon rainfall （ISMR） plays an important role in the climate system of South Asia. Recently, studies about ISMR variations have been going into more depth. In this present paper, we mainly use the Scargle periodogram and wavelet transform methods to study the periodicity of ISMR changes between 1871 and 2004 and review the possible influence of solar activity on the rainfall. Analysis results show complicated ISMR variations have periodicities with remarkable time-variable characteristics. Investigating a possible connection between the rainfall and solar variations, we believe that solar activity affects the ISMR variations to some extent.展开更多
Previous statistical analyses of a large number of SOHO/MDI full disk longitudinal magnetograms provided a result that demonstrated how responses of solar flares to photospheric magnetic properties can be fitted with ...Previous statistical analyses of a large number of SOHO/MDI full disk longitudinal magnetograms provided a result that demonstrated how responses of solar flares to photospheric magnetic properties can be fitted with sigmoid functions. A logistic model reveals that these fitted sigmoid functions might be related to the free energy storage process in solar active regions. Although this suggested model is rather simple, the free energy level of active regions can be estimated and the probability of a solar flare with importance over a threshold can be forecast within a given time window.展开更多
Using the intensity data of each northern subtropical high measured by monthly 500 hPa height charts for the recent 38 years (1954-1991), we calculate their correlations with the monthly sunspot number and monthly sol...Using the intensity data of each northern subtropical high measured by monthly 500 hPa height charts for the recent 38 years (1954-1991), we calculate their correlations with the monthly sunspot number and monthly solar radio flux at 10.7 cm wave length, respectively. Through strict test, we further confirm a series of high correlations. Next, using a method called the non-integer (year) wave, the significant response of each subtropical high's intensity to solar activity at its main period of 10.9-year length is found. Special attention is paid to that of the eastern Pacific high, the possible mechanism of such sensible response is also analysed.展开更多
In this paper,we propose a long short-term memory(LSTM)deep learning model to deal with the smoothed monthly sunspot number(SSN),aiming to address the problem whereby the prediction results of the existing sunspot pre...In this paper,we propose a long short-term memory(LSTM)deep learning model to deal with the smoothed monthly sunspot number(SSN),aiming to address the problem whereby the prediction results of the existing sunspot prediction methods are not uniform and have large deviations.Our method optimizes the number of hidden nodes and batch sizes of the LSTM network structures to 19 and 20,respectively.The best length of time series and the value of the timesteps were then determined for the network training,and one-step and multi-step predictions for Cycle 22 to Cycle 24 were made using the well-established network.The results showed that the maximum root-mean-square error(RMSE)of the one-step prediction model was6.12 and the minimum was only 2.45.The maximum amplitude prediction error of the multi-step prediction was 17.2%and the minimum was only 3.0%.Finally,the next solar cycles(Cycle 25)peak amplitude was predicted to occur around 2023,with a peak value of about 114.3.The accuracy of this prediction method is better than that of the other commonly used methods,and the method has high applicability.展开更多
Successive filtration and comparison show that the stratosphere air temperature in 10 hPa-layer of the Northern Hemisphere （NH） in July continuously increases,which is associated to the increases in greenhouse gases...Successive filtration and comparison show that the stratosphere air temperature in 10 hPa-layer of the Northern Hemisphere （NH） in July continuously increases,which is associated to the increases in greenhouse gases mostly CO2,volcanic activities,and solar activity,demonstrating the follows.（a） The increase in CO2 concentration is largely consistent with that of the stratosphere air temperature in 10 hPa-layer of the NH in July.However,the increase in the air temperature is not in a linear pattern,during which several cooling events interrupt.The cooling events between late 1960s and late 1970s are remarkable ones and so is the one before mid 1990s.Analysis shows that these events are induced by volcanic activities and solar activity.（b） The CO2-free variation in the stratosphere air temperature in 10 hPa-layer of the NH is consistent with that of the solar magnetic index.The wave crests and wave troughs of the two curves are consistent in phase,and the curve of solar magnetic index leads the other slightly.In other words,when the solar magnetic pole is southward,a warming in the NH stratosphere corresponds;and on the contrary,the northward solar magnetic pole corresponds to a cooling event.The variation in solar magnetic polarity strongly impacts the variation in the stratosphere temperature.展开更多
The vertically integrated emission rate,centroid altitude,peak emission rate,and peak height of the hydroxyl(OH)airglow were calculated from Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics(TIMED)/Sounding o...The vertically integrated emission rate,centroid altitude,peak emission rate,and peak height of the hydroxyl(OH)airglow were calculated from Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics(TIMED)/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry(SABER)observations to study the seasonal and interannual variations in the intensity and location of the OH emission.The emission rate is inversely proportional to the height of the emission,with the semiannual oscillation dominating at low latitudes and the annual oscillation dominating at higher latitudes.The OH emission is modulated by the quasibiennial oscillation at the equator,and the quasibiennial oscillation signal is weak at other latitudes.We represented the vertical transport of atomic oxygen by using atomic oxygen concentrations obtained from a global atmospheric model,the Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension simulations.Compared with the amplitudes of the migrating diurnal tide(DW1)calculated from temperature data observed by TIMED/SABER,we found that both the vertical transport of atomic oxygen and DW1 amplitudes in the equatorial region exhibit semiannual oscillation and quasibiennial oscillation,which have a strong correlation with the variations in the amplitude and phase of semiannual oscillation and quasibiennial oscillation in OH emission.It is likely that the DW1 affects the vertical transport of atomic oxygen that is involved in the reaction to produce O3,thus affecting the OH emission.We analyzed the relationship between OH emission and solar activity by using the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm as a proxy for solar activity.The results showed that the OH emission is well correlated with solar activity,and the modulation of OH emission by solar activity has a significant latitudinal variation.The small correlation between emission height and solar activity indicates that solar activity modulates OH emission mainly through chemical rather than dynamic processes.展开更多
Comparison of regular(diurnal,seasonal and solar cycle)variations of high-latitude,mid-latitude and low-latitude ionospheric characteristics has been provided on basis of local empirical models of the peak electron de...Comparison of regular(diurnal,seasonal and solar cycle)variations of high-latitude,mid-latitude and low-latitude ionospheric characteristics has been provided on basis of local empirical models of the peak electron density and the peak height.The local empirical models were derived from the hand-scaled ionogram data recorded by DPS-4 digisondes located at Norilsk(69°N,88°E),Irkutsk(52°N,104°E)and Hainan(19°N,109°E)for a 6-year period from December,2002 to December,2008.The technique used to build the local empirical model is described.The primary focus is diurnal-seasonal behavior under low solar activity and its change with increasing solar activity.Both common and specific features of the high-latitude(Norilsk),mid-latitude(Irkutsk)and low-latitude(Hainan)regular variations were revealed using their local empirical models.展开更多
Four extreme ultraviolet(EUV)solar radiation proxies(Magnesium II core-to-wing ratio(MgII),Lymanαflux(Fα),10.7-cm solar radio flux(F10.7),and sunspot number(Rz))were analyzed during the last four consecutive solar a...Four extreme ultraviolet(EUV)solar radiation proxies(Magnesium II core-to-wing ratio(MgII),Lymanαflux(Fα),10.7-cm solar radio flux(F10.7),and sunspot number(Rz))were analyzed during the last four consecutive solar activity minima to investigate how they differ during minimum periods and how well they represent solar EUV radiation.Their variability within each minimum and between minima was compared by considering monthly means.A comparison was also made of their role in filtering the effect of solar activity from the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer,foF2,which at mid to low latitudes depends mainly on EUV solar radiation.The last two solar cycles showed unusually low EUV radiation levels according to the four proxies.Regarding the connection between the EUV“true”variation and that of solar proxies,according to the foF2 filtering analysis,MgII and Fαbehaved in a more stable and suitable way,whereas Rz and F10.7 could be overestimating EUV levels during the last two minima,implying they would both underestimate the inter-minima difference of EUV when compared with the first two minima.展开更多
Obvious tendency and periodicity of the air temperature can be detected over the North Pole area.They are reflected as follows： a.the air temperature at the earth surface and in the middle layer of the stratosphere t...Obvious tendency and periodicity of the air temperature can be detected over the North Pole area.They are reflected as follows： a.the air temperature at the earth surface and in the middle layer of the stratosphere tends to be increased either in winter or in summer.The air temperature has increased 1.3 °C for about 50 years at a speed about 0.025 °C/year in January,and 0.013 °C/year in July.The air temperature in the middle layer of the stratosphere （10 hPa） in January has increased 10 °C.The temperature rising speed in July is 0.14 °C/year.Generally speaking,the temperature rising speed is quicker in winter than in summer and quicker in the upper layer than at the earth surface.b.The air temperature at the top layer of the troposphere （100 hPa） over the North Pole area tends to be increased either in winter or in summer.The air temperature in January has decreased 5.0 °C for about 50 years at a temperature decreasing speed about 0.094 °C/year,and at a temperature decreasing speed about 0.032 °C/year in July.The speed of the temperature decreasing is greater in winter than in summer.c.Periodicity.The air temperature respectively at different altitudes over the North Pole possesses interdecadal variation with a period of 22 years.In July the amplitude of the variation with a period of 22 years decreases rapidly from the high altitude to the low.This means that the 22–year’s period is more obvious at the high altitude than at the low altitude.At the earth surface layer in North Pole there also is obvious decadal variation with a period of 11 years.The analysis indicates that the 22-years’ period temperature variation is associated with the periodic variation of the solar magnetic field.The 11-year period temperature variation is corresponding to 11 year’ period of the variation of the sunspot number.展开更多
In this paper we analyze daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature data collected at 119 meteorological stations over five regions of China during the period 1951-2010. The series of minimum, maximum, and mean temp...In this paper we analyze daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature data collected at 119 meteorological stations over five regions of China during the period 1951-2010. The series of minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures from each climatic region have similar signatures, but there are differences among the five regions and the countrywide average. The results indicate that the periods of faster warming were not synchronous across the regions studied： warming in northeast China and Tibet began in 1986, while in central-east, southeast, and northwest China the warming emerged in 1995. Furthermore, central-east and northwest China, and Tibet, have warmed continuously since 2000, but the temperature has decreased during this period in southeast China. We evaluated the evolution of these temperature series using a novel nonlinear filtering technique based on the concept of the lifetime of temperature curves. The decadal to secular evolution of solar activity and temperature variation had similar signatures in the northeast, southeast, and northwest re- gions and the average across the whole country, indicating that solar activity is a significant control on climate change over secular time scales in these regions. In comparison with these regions, the signatures were different in central-east China and Tibet because of regional differences （e.g., landforms and elevation） and indirect effects （e.g., cloud cover influencing the radiation balance, thereby inducing climate change）. Furthermore, the results of wavelet analysis indicated that the El Nino Southem Oscillation （ENSO） has had a significant impact on climate change, but at different times among the regions, and these changes were most probably induced by differing responses of the atmospheric system to solar forcing.展开更多
文摘Department of Physics, Faculty of Natural Science and Technology, Tay Nguyen university has collaborated with Stanford Solar Center of Stanford university on Space Weather monitor project. We have developed the TNU-SuperSID teaching module which has three main parts： antenna, preamplifier and data logger. This module can detect the variation of Very Low Frequency （VLF, 3 - 30 kHz） signals during sunrise and sunset transition, and sudden ionospheric disturbance due to solar flares. In other word, the behavior of the Earth＇s lower ionosphere corresponding the solar activities is understood by using VLF technique. Our project helps undergraduate students who are learning the astrophysics and space physics to enhance their knowledge in space science and their technical skills with real experiments. Through the participant in this project, students can also be gained their skills such as communication, working in team, processing data, etc.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFF0503800)National Natural Science Foundation of China grants (12073073, 11933009, 12273107 and U2031141)+6 种基金grants associated with the Yunnan Revitalization Talent Support Programthe Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Light of West China Program)the Yunling Scholar Project of Yunnan Provincethe Yunnan Province Scientist Workshop of Solar Physicsthe Applied Basic Research of Yunnan Province grants (202101AT070018 and 2019FB005)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China grants (12273107 and U2031141)the Yunnan Key Laboratory of Solar Physics and Space Science (202205AG070009)
文摘The Solar Close Observations and Proximity Experiments(SCOPE)mission will send a spacecraft into the solar atmosphere at a low altitude of just 5 R☉from the solar center.It aims to elucidate the mechanisms behind solar eruptions and coronal heating,and to directly measure the coronal magnetic field.The mission will perform in situ measurements of the current sheet between coronal mass ejections and their associated solar flares,and energetic particles produced by either reconnection or fast-mode shocks driven by coronal mass ejections.This will help to resolve the nature of reconnections in current sheets,and energetic particle acceleration regions.To investigate coronal heating,the mission will observe nano-flares on scales smaller than 70 km in the solar corona and regions smaller than 40 km in the photosphere,where magnetohydrodynamic waves originate.To study solar wind acceleration mechanisms,the mission will also track the process of ion charge-state freezing in the solar wind.A key achievement will be the observation of the coronal magnetic field at unprecedented proximity to the solar photosphere.The polar regions will also be observed at close range,and the inner edge of the solar system dust disk may be identified for the first time.This work presents the detailed background,science,and mission concept of SCOPE and discusses how we aim to address the questions mentioned above.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42241118,42174194,42150105,42204166,42241106,42074207)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2021YFA0718600,2022YFF0503800)+1 种基金the CNSA(Grant No.D050106)supported by Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.2021064)。
文摘The evolution of solar magnetic fields is significant for understanding and predicting solar activities.And our knowledge of solar magnetic fields largely depends on the photospheric magnetic field.In this paper,based on the spherical harmonic expansion of the photospheric magnetic field observed by Wilcox Solar Observatory,we analyze the time series of spherical harmonic coefficients and predict Sunspot Number as well as synoptic maps for Solar Cycle 25.We find that solar maximum years have complex short-period disturbances,and the time series of coefficient g_(7)~0 is nearly in-phase with Sunspot Number,which may be related to solar meridional circulation.Utilizing Long Short-Term Memory networks(LSTM),our prediction suggests that the maximum of Solar Cycle 25 is likely to occur in June 2024 with an error of 8 months,the peak sunspot number may be 166.9±22.6,and the next solar minimum may occur around January 2031.By incorporating Empirical Mode Decomposition,we enhance our forecast of synoptic maps truncated to Order 5,validating their relative reliability.This prediction not only addresses a gap in forecasting the global distribution of the solar magnetic field but also holds potential reference value for forthcoming solar observation plans.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42388101)the CAS Youth Interdisciplinary Team (JCTD-2021-05)funded by the Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘Solar cycles are fundamental to astrophysics,space exploration,technological infrastructure,and Earth's climate.A better understanding of these cycles and their history can aid in risk mitigation on Earth,while also deepening our knowledge of stellar physics and solar system dynamics.Determining the solar cycles between 1600 and 1700-especially the post-1645 Maunder Minimum,characterized by significantly reduced solar activity-poses challenges to existing solar activity proxies.This study utilizes a new red equatorial auroral catalog from ancient Korean texts to establish solar cycle patterns from 1623 to 1700.Remarkably,a further reevaluation of the solar cycles between 1610 and 1755 identified a total of 13 cycles,diverging from the widely accepted record of 12 cycles during that time.This research enhances our understanding of historical solar activity,and underscores the importance of integrating diverse historical sources into modern analyses.
文摘In this study, we examined variability of sun-related energies, auroral electrojet current, ring current, and magnetopause current during solar cycles 23 and 24. The study revealed a dependence of sun-related energies to the Sun and Earth currents systems with solar activity from 1996 to 2019. A decrease in the correlation between sun-related energies and sunspot number was observed over solar cycles 23 and 24 (0.88 for the solar cycle 23 and 0.66 for the solar cycle 24), with a drop in the speed of magnetic disturbances in the solar wind. These results could be attributed to the decrease in Sun’s magnetic field toroidal component magnitude induced by a weak in sunspots number and solar flares during the solar cycle 24. A weak in the Earth currents systems (auroral electrojet current, ring current, and magnetopause current) is also observed. During the decrease in the Earth currents, several peaks are observed, indicating a nonlinear dependence in the Earth currents variation (ring current, auroral electrojet current, and magnetopause current) from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24. This could be attributed to the Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) observed during the declining phase of solar cycle 23 and the deep minimum preceding solar cycle 24.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42388101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42241106)CAS Youth Interdisciplinary Team(JCTD-2021-05).
文摘The Sun is the primary energy source driving the Earth's climate system.A prevailing hypothesis suggests that even minor variations in solar activity,when amplified by climate system feedback mechanisms,can induce significant climatic changes on decadal to centennial timescales.However,the limited availability of historical winter climate proxies has impeded consensus on how solar variability influences the long-term winter climate in Northeast Asia,particularly during Grand Solar Minima(GMs).In this study,we analyzed daily-resolution snowfall records in Seoul from 1625 to 1907 CE,derived from the Korean official historical chronicle Seungjeongweon Ilgi.This period encompasses both the Maunder Minimum(1645–1715 CE)and the Dalton Minimum(1790–1830 CE)of solar activity.Our findings indicate that during the GMs,the first date of annual snowfall(FDS)was delayed by approximately 10 days,and the average annual snowfall frequency(ASF)was reduced by half compared to non-GM periods.Additionally,while an 11-year solar cycle was evident in the ASF during non-GM periods,this cycle was replaced by a shortened 8-to 9-year cycle during the GMs.These variations suggest a differential regional climatic response to prolonged changes in solar activity,and provide historical insights that enhance our understanding of the potential impact of low solar activity on the winter climate in Northeast Asia.
基金supported by China National Space Administration(CNSA)。
文摘The Chinese HαSolar Explorer(CHASE)mission,dubbed as“Xihe”——Goddess of the Sun,was launched on 14 October 2021 as the first solar space mission of China National Space Administration(CNSA).The CHASE mission aims to test an ultra-high precision and stability platform,and to acquire solar HαSpectroscopic observations with high temporal and spectral resolutions.Since its launch,the in-orbit performance of the scientific payload——HαImaging Spectrograph(HIS)has been excellent.The first set of data has been calibrated and analyzed recently.The CHASE science data are expected to advance our understanding of the plasma dynamics in the solar lower atmosphere,and to investigate the Sun as a star for stellar physics.
文摘This paper discusses that the global worming caused by the green-house gases effect will be equal or less than that of the global cooling resulting from the solar activities. In this respect, we refer to the MDM （Modern Dalton Minimum） which stated that starting from 2005 to the next 40 years; the earth＇s surface temperature will become cooler than nowadays. However, the degree of cooling, previously mentioned in old Dalton Minimum （c. 210 year ago）, will be minimized by building-up of green-house gases effect during MDM period. Regarding to the periodicities of solar activities, it is clear that we have a new solar cycle of around 210 years now.
文摘Solar activity (SA) has been hypothesized to be a trigger of earthquakes, although it is not as intuitively associated as other potential triggers such as </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">tidal stress, rainfall, and the building of artificial water reservoirs. Here, we in</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ves</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">tigate the relation between SA and global earthquake numbers (GEN) by using</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> a deep learning method to test the hypothesis. We use the daily data of GEN </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">and SA (1996/01/01</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">2019/12/31) to construct a temporal convolution netw</span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ork (</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">TCN). From the computational results, we confirm that the TCN captures th</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">e </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">relation between SA and earthquakes with magnitudes from 4.0 to 4.9. We als</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">o </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">find that the TCN achieves better fitting and prediction performance compar</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ed with previous work</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Development Program (Grant No 2010CB428603)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 41025017 and 40921160379)
文摘The modulation of the relationship between the Arctic Oscillation （AO） and the East Asian winter climate by the 11-year solar cycle was investigated. During winters with high solar activity （HS）, robust warming appeared in northern Asia in a positive AO phase. This result corresponded to an enhanced anticyclonic flow at 850 hPa over northeastern Asia and a weakened East Asian trough （EAT） at 500 hPa. However, during winters with low solar activity （LS）, both the surface warming and the intensities of the anticyclonic flow and the EAT were much less in the presence of a positive AO phase. The possible atmospheric processes for this 11-year solar-cycle modulation may be attributed to the indirect influence that solar activity induces in the structural changes of AO. During HS winters, the sea level pressure oscillation associated with the AO became stronger, with the significant influence of AO extending to East Asia. In the meantime, the AO-related zonal-mean zonal winds tended to extend more into the stratosphere during HS winters, which implies a stronger coupling to the stratosphere. These trends may have led to an enhanced AO phase difference; thus the associated East Asian climate anomalies became larger and more significant. The situation tended to reverse during LS winters. Further analyses revealed that the relationship between the winter AO and surface-climate anomalies in the following spring is also modulated by the 11-year solar cycle, with significant signals appearing only during HS phases. Solar-cycle variation should be taken into consideration when the AO is used to predict winter and spring climate anomalies over East Asia.
基金The study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under （Project No. 10373017）.Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to IITM and SIDC for providing Indian the summer monsoon rainfall and sunspots series, respectively. The wavelet transform software is provided by C. Torrence and G. Compo.
文摘The Indian summer monsoon rainfall （ISMR） plays an important role in the climate system of South Asia. Recently, studies about ISMR variations have been going into more depth. In this present paper, we mainly use the Scargle periodogram and wavelet transform methods to study the periodicity of ISMR changes between 1871 and 2004 and review the possible influence of solar activity on the rainfall. Analysis results show complicated ISMR variations have periodicities with remarkable time-variable characteristics. Investigating a possible connection between the rainfall and solar variations, we believe that solar activity affects the ISMR variations to some extent.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Previous statistical analyses of a large number of SOHO/MDI full disk longitudinal magnetograms provided a result that demonstrated how responses of solar flares to photospheric magnetic properties can be fitted with sigmoid functions. A logistic model reveals that these fitted sigmoid functions might be related to the free energy storage process in solar active regions. Although this suggested model is rather simple, the free energy level of active regions can be estimated and the probability of a solar flare with importance over a threshold can be forecast within a given time window.
文摘Using the intensity data of each northern subtropical high measured by monthly 500 hPa height charts for the recent 38 years (1954-1991), we calculate their correlations with the monthly sunspot number and monthly solar radio flux at 10.7 cm wave length, respectively. Through strict test, we further confirm a series of high correlations. Next, using a method called the non-integer (year) wave, the significant response of each subtropical high's intensity to solar activity at its main period of 10.9-year length is found. Special attention is paid to that of the eastern Pacific high, the possible mechanism of such sensible response is also analysed.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U1531128)。
文摘In this paper,we propose a long short-term memory(LSTM)deep learning model to deal with the smoothed monthly sunspot number(SSN),aiming to address the problem whereby the prediction results of the existing sunspot prediction methods are not uniform and have large deviations.Our method optimizes the number of hidden nodes and batch sizes of the LSTM network structures to 19 and 20,respectively.The best length of time series and the value of the timesteps were then determined for the network training,and one-step and multi-step predictions for Cycle 22 to Cycle 24 were made using the well-established network.The results showed that the maximum root-mean-square error(RMSE)of the one-step prediction model was6.12 and the minimum was only 2.45.The maximum amplitude prediction error of the multi-step prediction was 17.2%and the minimum was only 3.0%.Finally,the next solar cycles(Cycle 25)peak amplitude was predicted to occur around 2023,with a peak value of about 114.3.The accuracy of this prediction method is better than that of the other commonly used methods,and the method has high applicability.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 40875041,40631006,40975038)
文摘Successive filtration and comparison show that the stratosphere air temperature in 10 hPa-layer of the Northern Hemisphere （NH） in July continuously increases,which is associated to the increases in greenhouse gases mostly CO2,volcanic activities,and solar activity,demonstrating the follows.（a） The increase in CO2 concentration is largely consistent with that of the stratosphere air temperature in 10 hPa-layer of the NH in July.However,the increase in the air temperature is not in a linear pattern,during which several cooling events interrupt.The cooling events between late 1960s and late 1970s are remarkable ones and so is the one before mid 1990s.Analysis shows that these events are induced by volcanic activities and solar activity.（b） The CO2-free variation in the stratosphere air temperature in 10 hPa-layer of the NH is consistent with that of the solar magnetic index.The wave crests and wave troughs of the two curves are consistent in phase,and the curve of solar magnetic index leads the other slightly.In other words,when the solar magnetic pole is southward,a warming in the NH stratosphere corresponds;and on the contrary,the northward solar magnetic pole corresponds to a cooling event.The variation in solar magnetic polarity strongly impacts the variation in the stratosphere temperature.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Numbers 42374195 and 42188101)a fellowship from the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(Grant Number BX20230273).
文摘The vertically integrated emission rate,centroid altitude,peak emission rate,and peak height of the hydroxyl(OH)airglow were calculated from Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics(TIMED)/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry(SABER)observations to study the seasonal and interannual variations in the intensity and location of the OH emission.The emission rate is inversely proportional to the height of the emission,with the semiannual oscillation dominating at low latitudes and the annual oscillation dominating at higher latitudes.The OH emission is modulated by the quasibiennial oscillation at the equator,and the quasibiennial oscillation signal is weak at other latitudes.We represented the vertical transport of atomic oxygen by using atomic oxygen concentrations obtained from a global atmospheric model,the Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere and ionosphere eXtension simulations.Compared with the amplitudes of the migrating diurnal tide(DW1)calculated from temperature data observed by TIMED/SABER,we found that both the vertical transport of atomic oxygen and DW1 amplitudes in the equatorial region exhibit semiannual oscillation and quasibiennial oscillation,which have a strong correlation with the variations in the amplitude and phase of semiannual oscillation and quasibiennial oscillation in OH emission.It is likely that the DW1 affects the vertical transport of atomic oxygen that is involved in the reaction to produce O3,thus affecting the OH emission.We analyzed the relationship between OH emission and solar activity by using the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm as a proxy for solar activity.The results showed that the OH emission is well correlated with solar activity,and the modulation of OH emission by solar activity has a significant latitudinal variation.The small correlation between emission height and solar activity indicates that solar activity modulates OH emission mainly through chemical rather than dynamic processes.
基金Supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research(13-05-91159-GFEN_a)Project 14.518.11.7065 and agreement N8388 of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation(41274146)the Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratory in China
文摘Comparison of regular(diurnal,seasonal and solar cycle)variations of high-latitude,mid-latitude and low-latitude ionospheric characteristics has been provided on basis of local empirical models of the peak electron density and the peak height.The local empirical models were derived from the hand-scaled ionogram data recorded by DPS-4 digisondes located at Norilsk(69°N,88°E),Irkutsk(52°N,104°E)and Hainan(19°N,109°E)for a 6-year period from December,2002 to December,2008.The technique used to build the local empirical model is described.The primary focus is diurnal-seasonal behavior under low solar activity and its change with increasing solar activity.Both common and specific features of the high-latitude(Norilsk),mid-latitude(Irkutsk)and low-latitude(Hainan)regular variations were revealed using their local empirical models.
基金Research Project Numbers PIUNT E642 and PIP 2957supported by National Science Foundation Grant Number AGS-2152365
文摘Four extreme ultraviolet(EUV)solar radiation proxies(Magnesium II core-to-wing ratio(MgII),Lymanαflux(Fα),10.7-cm solar radio flux(F10.7),and sunspot number(Rz))were analyzed during the last four consecutive solar activity minima to investigate how they differ during minimum periods and how well they represent solar EUV radiation.Their variability within each minimum and between minima was compared by considering monthly means.A comparison was also made of their role in filtering the effect of solar activity from the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer,foF2,which at mid to low latitudes depends mainly on EUV solar radiation.The last two solar cycles showed unusually low EUV radiation levels according to the four proxies.Regarding the connection between the EUV“true”variation and that of solar proxies,according to the foF2 filtering analysis,MgII and Fαbehaved in a more stable and suitable way,whereas Rz and F10.7 could be overestimating EUV levels during the last two minima,implying they would both underestimate the inter-minima difference of EUV when compared with the first two minima.
基金The Global Change Research Program of China under contract No. 2010CB951403the National Natural Science Foundations of China under contract No. 40875041
文摘Obvious tendency and periodicity of the air temperature can be detected over the North Pole area.They are reflected as follows： a.the air temperature at the earth surface and in the middle layer of the stratosphere tends to be increased either in winter or in summer.The air temperature has increased 1.3 °C for about 50 years at a speed about 0.025 °C/year in January,and 0.013 °C/year in July.The air temperature in the middle layer of the stratosphere （10 hPa） in January has increased 10 °C.The temperature rising speed in July is 0.14 °C/year.Generally speaking,the temperature rising speed is quicker in winter than in summer and quicker in the upper layer than at the earth surface.b.The air temperature at the top layer of the troposphere （100 hPa） over the North Pole area tends to be increased either in winter or in summer.The air temperature in January has decreased 5.0 °C for about 50 years at a temperature decreasing speed about 0.094 °C/year,and at a temperature decreasing speed about 0.032 °C/year in July.The speed of the temperature decreasing is greater in winter than in summer.c.Periodicity.The air temperature respectively at different altitudes over the North Pole possesses interdecadal variation with a period of 22 years.In July the amplitude of the variation with a period of 22 years decreases rapidly from the high altitude to the low.This means that the 22–year’s period is more obvious at the high altitude than at the low altitude.At the earth surface layer in North Pole there also is obvious decadal variation with a period of 11 years.The analysis indicates that the 22-years’ period temperature variation is associated with the periodic variation of the solar magnetic field.The 11-year period temperature variation is corresponding to 11 year’ period of the variation of the sunspot number.
基金support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41201200)the CAS Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDA05080101)
文摘In this paper we analyze daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature data collected at 119 meteorological stations over five regions of China during the period 1951-2010. The series of minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures from each climatic region have similar signatures, but there are differences among the five regions and the countrywide average. The results indicate that the periods of faster warming were not synchronous across the regions studied： warming in northeast China and Tibet began in 1986, while in central-east, southeast, and northwest China the warming emerged in 1995. Furthermore, central-east and northwest China, and Tibet, have warmed continuously since 2000, but the temperature has decreased during this period in southeast China. We evaluated the evolution of these temperature series using a novel nonlinear filtering technique based on the concept of the lifetime of temperature curves. The decadal to secular evolution of solar activity and temperature variation had similar signatures in the northeast, southeast, and northwest re- gions and the average across the whole country, indicating that solar activity is a significant control on climate change over secular time scales in these regions. In comparison with these regions, the signatures were different in central-east China and Tibet because of regional differences （e.g., landforms and elevation） and indirect effects （e.g., cloud cover influencing the radiation balance, thereby inducing climate change）. Furthermore, the results of wavelet analysis indicated that the El Nino Southem Oscillation （ENSO） has had a significant impact on climate change, but at different times among the regions, and these changes were most probably induced by differing responses of the atmospheric system to solar forcing.
