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A simulation-based nonlinear site amplification model for ground-motion prediction equations in Japan 被引量:1
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作者 Ruibin Hou John Xingquan Zhao 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 SCIE EI CSCD 2021年第4期843-862,共20页
In this manuscript we present a nonlinear site amplification model for ground-motion prediction equations(GMPEs)in Japan,using a site period-based site class and a site impedance ratio as site parameters.We used a lar... In this manuscript we present a nonlinear site amplification model for ground-motion prediction equations(GMPEs)in Japan,using a site period-based site class and a site impedance ratio as site parameters.We used a large number of shear-wave velocity profiles from the Kiban-Kyoshin network(KiK-net)and the Kyoshin network(K-NET)to construct the one-dimensional(1D)numerical models.The strong-motion records from rock-sites in Japan with different earthquake categories and taken from the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center dataset were used in this study.We fit a set of 1D site amplification models using the spectral amplification ratios derived from 1D equivalent linear analyses.Parameters of site impedance ratios for both linear and nonlinear site response were included in the 1D model.The 1D model could be implemented into GMPEs using a new proposed adjustment method.The adjusted site amplification ratios retain the nonlinear characteristics of the 1D model for strong motions and match the linear amplification ratio in GMPE for weak motions.The nonlinearity of the present site model is reasonably similar to that of the historical models,and the present site model could satisfactorily capture the nonlinear site response in empirical data. 展开更多
关键词 nonlinear site amplification model ground-motion prediction equations site class site impedance ratio site response analysis
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Application of site-specific biomass models to quantify spatial distribution of stocks and historical emissions from deforestation in a tropical forest ecosystem 被引量:1
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作者 Cedric A.Goussanou Sabin Guendehou +1 位作者 Achille E.Assogbadjo Brice Sinsin 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第1期205-213,共9页
Allometric equations developed for the Lama forest, located in southern Benin, West Africa, were applied to estimate carbon stocks of three vegetation types:undisturbed forest, degraded forest, and fallow. Carbon sto... Allometric equations developed for the Lama forest, located in southern Benin, West Africa, were applied to estimate carbon stocks of three vegetation types:undisturbed forest, degraded forest, and fallow. Carbon stock of the undisturbed forest was 2.7 times higher than that in the degraded forest and 3.4 times higher than that in fallow. The structure of the forest suggests that the individual species were generally concentrated in lower diameter classes. Carbon stock was positively correlated to basal area and negatively related to tree density, suggesting that trees in higher diameter classes contributed significantly to the total carbon stock. The study demonstrated that large trees constitute an important component to include in the sampling approach to achieve accurate carbon quantification in forestry. Historical emissions from deforestation that converted more than 30% of the Lama forest into cropland between the years 1946 and 1987 amounted to 260,563.17 tons of carbon per year(t CO2/year) for the biomass pool only. The study explained the application of biomass models and ground truth data to estimate reference carbon stock of forests. 展开更多
关键词 Biomass Reference level site-specific biomass model Spatial distribution Tropical forest ecosystem
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Growth models and site index table of natural Korean pine forests
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作者 孙玉文 李实 +3 位作者 崔红 李长胜 刘鹏 张俊华 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1999年第4期236-238,共3页
According to the growth characteristics of natural Korean pine (Pinus Koraiensis) forests, 6 equations such as Chapman-Richards equation, Logistic equation, Power equation, and so on were selected to ftt for the growt... According to the growth characteristics of natural Korean pine (Pinus Koraiensis) forests, 6 equations such as Chapman-Richards equation, Logistic equation, Power equation, and so on were selected to ftt for the growth modeIs for Korean pine forest. The growth models were developed based on 208 random trees and 24o dominant trees. Results show that the Chapman-Richards equation is the best model for estimating tree height by age and DBH, while the Parabola equation is fittest for predicting DBH by age or estimating age from DBH. The site index table of Korean pine forest was compiled by using the proportional method with the Chapman-Richards equation as the guide curve and vaIidated by accuracy test. 展开更多
关键词 KOREAN PINE FOREST Growth model site index TABLE
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Dynamical energy equipartition of the Toda model with additional on-site potentials
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作者 张振俊 唐春梅 +1 位作者 康静 童培庆 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2017年第10期107-111,共5页
We study the dynamical energy equipartition properties in the integrable Toda model with additional uniform or disordered on-site energies by extensive numerical simulations. The total energy is initially equidistribu... We study the dynamical energy equipartition properties in the integrable Toda model with additional uniform or disordered on-site energies by extensive numerical simulations. The total energy is initially equidistributed among some of the lowest frequency linear modes. For the Toda model with uniform on-site potentials, the energy spectrum keeps its profile nearly unchanged in a relatively short time scale. On a much longer time scale, the energies of tail modes increase slowly with time. Energy equipartition is far away from being attached in our studied time scale. For the Toda model with disordered on-site potentials, the energy transfers continuously to the high frequency modes and eventually towards energy equipartition. We further perform a systematic study of the equipartition time teq depending on the energy density ε and the nonlinear parameter α in the thermodynamic limit for the Toda model with disordered on-site potentials. We find teq∝ (1/ε)^a(1/α)^b, where b≈ 2a. The values of a and b are increased when increasing the strengths of disordered on-site potentials or decreasing the number of initially excited modes. 展开更多
关键词 energy transport behaviors Toda model uniform or disordered on-site potentials
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基于围术期多维度变量预测老年结直肠癌患者手术部位感染的模型构建及验证
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作者 杨春艳 吴敏 +6 位作者 张作华 马静 范书山 付欣 张锐 陈园园 张静亚 《中华医院感染学杂志》 北大核心 2026年第1期62-67,共6页
目的 探讨老年结直肠癌术后患者发生手术部位感染的影响因素,构建列线图预测模型并验证。方法 选取2021年1月-2025年5月聊城市人民医院收治的1 268例老年结直肠癌患者为研究对象,按照7∶3比例将其随机分配至模型训练集(n=888例)和验证集... 目的 探讨老年结直肠癌术后患者发生手术部位感染的影响因素,构建列线图预测模型并验证。方法 选取2021年1月-2025年5月聊城市人民医院收治的1 268例老年结直肠癌患者为研究对象,按照7∶3比例将其随机分配至模型训练集(n=888例)和验证集(n=380例)。采用LASSO-logistic回归进行变量筛选,并构建列线图模型,分别绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线、校准曲线对模型性能进行内部验证。结果 糖尿病(OR=2.857, 95%CI:1.695~4.815)、ASA分级Ⅲ级(OR=2.081, 95%CI:1.210~3.580)、多发肿瘤(OR=5.613, 95%CI:2.745~11.479)、直肠肿瘤(OR=3.086, 95%CI:1.809~5.265)、糖类抗原19-9(CA19-9)>39 U/ml(OR=3.516, 95%CI:2.026~6.103)、手术时长(OR=1.519, 95%CI:1.179~1.957)是老年结直肠癌患者术后发生SSI的危险因素;CD4+/CD8+比值(OR=0.443, 95%CI:0.241~0.813)、血清白蛋白(OR=0.901, 95%CI:0.855~0.950)、择期手术(OR=0.109, 95%CI:0.032~0.375)是老年结直肠癌患者术后发生SSI的保护因素。基于上述指标构建列线图模型,验证集的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.797(95%CI:0.717~0.865),表明该模型区分度良好;Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验显示,该模型的准确性和一致性较好(χ2=6.315,P=0.097)。结论 本研究基于LASSO-logistic构建的列线图预测模型对于老年结直肠癌患者具有良好预测价值,有助于临床术前早期识别SSI高风险患者并实施针对性感控措施,优化围术期管理。 展开更多
关键词 老年 结直肠癌 手术部位感染 预测模型
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Spatial Analysis and Modelling of Wind Farm Site Suitability in Nasarawa State, North-Central Nigeria
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作者 Chukwunonso Emmanuel Ozim Anita Odionyenfe Nweke +3 位作者 Salamatu Abraham Ekpo Olufemi Stephen Oladeinde Haruna Kuje Ayuba Udochukwu Michael Mbanaso 《Journal of Geographic Information System》 2021年第5期603-630,共28页
There has been an increasing global and local interest in developing renewable, clean, and cheap energy towards achieving Goal number 7 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). However, decisions involving suitable... There has been an increasing global and local interest in developing renewable, clean, and cheap energy towards achieving Goal number 7 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). However, decisions involving suitable and sustainable locations for renewable energy projects remain an important task. This study employed Geographic Information System (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to spatially analyze and model wind farm site suitability in Nasarawa State. The aim is to integrate the environmental, social, and economic aspects of decision-making for identifying sustainable wind farm sites. The study distinguished between two sets of decision criteria: decision constraints and decision factors. The former defined the exclusion zones while the latter were standardized based on fuzzy logic to depict varying degrees of suitability across the State. The MCDA applied the weighted linear combination method, with relative weights generated through pairwise comparisons of the analytic hierarchy process to analyze three policy scenarios: equal weights, environmental/social priority, and economic priority scenario. A combination of resulting composite maps from the constraints and the factors gave the final suitability maps. The resulting suitability index (SI) for the respective policy scenario describes the degrees of suitability: Ideal locations were denoted by one (1) and the not suitable locations by zero (0), with values in-between depicting varying degrees of wind farm site suitability. Based on the SI, priority locations indicating areas with good prospects, in addition to the most suitable parcels of land, were identified and delineated. The composite decision constraint revealed that wind farm projects would not be viable in more than half (57.58%) of the State. Wind speed was the major constraint and accounted for the exclusion of 46.25%, with a mean fuzzy membership value of 0.2008 indicating low suitability across the State. Also, the average acceptable wind farm location for the three-policy scenario was 33.33% of the entire study area. Lafia, Obi, Keana, Awe, Nasarawa-Eggon, Wamba and Kokona LGAs were the identified priority Local Government Areas (LGAs). However, only Lafia, Obi, and Nasarawa-Eggon were consistent with changes in the policy objectives. All the priority LGAs have one or more of the most suitable parcels within their administrative boundaries except for Wamba. Despite the severe limitations of wind speed, substantial parts of Nasarawa State still provide great development potentials for wind energy. The “most suitable” locations in Lafia, Nasarawa-Eggon, and Obi LGAs should have first consideration for the development of wind energy in the State. 展开更多
关键词 GIS Multi-Criteria Spatial Analysis and modelling Wind Energy Farm site Suitability Nasarawa State Nigeria
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基于非线性混合效应模型的泰山地区麻栎人工林地位指数表编制
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作者 周光锋 徐佳 +2 位作者 赵进红 王玉山 张倩 《山东农业大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2026年第1期179-188,共10页
麻栎(Quercus acutissima)是重要的造林树种和生态树种。泰山地区作为其分布区域之一,如何科学评价该区域麻栎人工林的立地质量是亟需解决的问题。编制泰山地区麻栎人工林地位指数表,以期为当地麻栎林的立地质量评价及经营管理提供科学... 麻栎(Quercus acutissima)是重要的造林树种和生态树种。泰山地区作为其分布区域之一,如何科学评价该区域麻栎人工林的立地质量是亟需解决的问题。编制泰山地区麻栎人工林地位指数表,以期为当地麻栎林的立地质量评价及经营管理提供科学依据。以泰山地区麻栎人工林为研究对象,利用30株平均优势木解析得到的232组树高年龄数据,基于5种常见生长模型,采用样地水平随机效应的非线性混合效应模型,根据各龄阶树高变动系数确定基准年龄,使用树高相对优势法编制泰山地区麻栎人工林地位指数表,利用X^(2)检验和落点检验对地位指数表进行适用性检验。结果表明:(1)可使用地位指数表评价泰山地区麻栎人工林立地质量;(2)单分子式生长模型是最优基础模型(R^(2)=0.6575),可作为导向曲线;(3)非线性混合效应模型的拟合效果均优于基础模型,其中随机效应置于参数a上的非线性混合效应模型拟合效果最好,其R^(2)、RMSE和MAE值分别为0.9792、0.6580和0.5108;(4)确定基准年龄为40 a,指数级距为1 m,指数级个数为8;(5)经X^(2)检验和落点检验证明编制的地位指数表具有较好适用性。利用样地水平随机效应的非线性混合效应模型编制的泰山地区麻栎人工林地位指数表,可用于该区域麻栎人工林立地质量的评价。 展开更多
关键词 麻栎 泰山地区 非线性混合效应模型 立地质量评价
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基于地理信息系统的高速铁路大型临时设施选址模型
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作者 曾小清 邓波 +2 位作者 朱明昌 应沛然 李在奇 《同济大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2026年第1期98-106,共9页
大型临时设施选址对高速铁路施工建设起着至关重要的作用,其主要为建造高速铁路生产和提供预制梁。为针对性解决传统选址工作前期勘察综合成本大、选址结果主观倾向明显且难以量化评估等问题,系统地梳理了选址因素逻辑架构,构建了多层... 大型临时设施选址对高速铁路施工建设起着至关重要的作用,其主要为建造高速铁路生产和提供预制梁。为针对性解决传统选址工作前期勘察综合成本大、选址结果主观倾向明显且难以量化评估等问题,系统地梳理了选址因素逻辑架构,构建了多层次选址指标体系,结合ArcGIS空间解析,建立高速铁路大型临时设施选址模型。结合山东省已建成的大型临时设施实际位置进行模型验证,得到模型准确度为90%,佐证了本文选址模型的可行性与科学性。可为后续类似设施选址提供理论依据,也有助于形成高速铁路大型临时设施选址新的工作范式。 展开更多
关键词 高速铁路 大型临时设施 选址模型 地理信息系统(GIS)
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冻土层状态对多年冻土场地地震动特性的影响分析
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作者 张熙胤 张文静 管嘉达 《地震工程学报》 北大核心 2026年第3期662-671,共10页
在多年冻土区,冻土层的存在和状态变化(温度和厚度)会显著影响场地地震动特性。为明确多年冻土场地地震动特性的主要影响因素,首先开展不同冻结状态下自由场地的振动台模型试验,探究在冷季(季节活动层冻结状态)和暖季(季节活动层融化状... 在多年冻土区,冻土层的存在和状态变化(温度和厚度)会显著影响场地地震动特性。为明确多年冻土场地地震动特性的主要影响因素,首先开展不同冻结状态下自由场地的振动台模型试验,探究在冷季(季节活动层冻结状态)和暖季(季节活动层融化状态)条件下多年冻土场地地面加速度峰值的变化特征;其次建立自由场地的有限差分模型,分析季节和多年冻土层温度、厚度等因素对场地地震动特性的影响。结果表明:在小震作用下,多年冻土层抑制了地面加速度峰值放大系数沿高程方向的增加效应,随着输入地震动强度的增加,这种抑制效应有所降低,而季节冻土层对地震动的抑制效应随着地震动强度的增加有所凸显。另外,在小震作用下,多年冻土层温度的降低对地震动峰值的抑制作用不太显著,多年冻土层厚度的增加使场地土体的最大水平应力有所下降;而在强震作用下,随着多年冻土层温度的降低,多年冻土场地土体的最大水平应力呈线性减小的趋势。此外,由暖季转换为冷季时,季节活动层的冻结会显著降低多年冻土场地地面加速度峰值,而季节冻土层温度的变化对场地地震动特性的影响并不明显。 展开更多
关键词 多年冻土场地 季节活动层 振动台试验 有限差分模型 场地地震动特性
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Evaluation of Unknown Groundwater Contaminant Sources Characterization Efficiency under Hydrogeologic Uncertainty in an Experimental Aquifer Site by Utilizing Surrogate Models
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作者 Shahrbanoo Hazrati-Yadkoori Bithin Datta 《Journal of Water Resource and Protection》 2017年第13期1612-1633,共22页
Characterization of unknown groundwater contaminant sources is an important but difficult step in effective groundwater management. The difficulties arise mainly due to the time of contaminant detection which usually ... Characterization of unknown groundwater contaminant sources is an important but difficult step in effective groundwater management. The difficulties arise mainly due to the time of contaminant detection which usually happens a long time after the start of contaminant source(s) activities. Usually, limited information is available which also can be erroneous. This study utilizes Self-Organizing Map (SOM) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) algorithms to develop surrogate models that can approximate the complex flow and transport processes in a contaminated aquifer. The important feature of these developed surrogate models is that unlike the previous methods, they can be applied independently of any linked optimization model solution for characterizing of unknown groundwater contaminant sources. The performance of the developed surrogate models is evaluated for source characterization in an experimental contaminated aquifer site within the heterogeneous sand aquifer, located at the Botany Basin, New South Wales, Australia. In this study, the measured contaminant concentrations and hydraulic conductivity values are assumed to contain random errors. Simulated responses of the aquifer to randomly specified contamination stresses as simulated by using a three-dimensional numerical simulation model are utilized for initial training of the surrogate models. The performance evaluation results obtained by using different surrogate models are also compared. The evaluation results demonstrate the different capabilities of the developed surrogate models. These capabilities lead to development of an efficient methodology for source characterization based on utilizing the trained and tested surrogate models in an inverse mode. The obtained results are satisfactory and show the potential applicability of the SOM and GPR-based surrogate models for unknown groundwater contaminant source characterization in an inverse mode. 展开更多
关键词 Surrogate models UNKNOWN GROUNDWATER Contamination Sources Source CHARACTERIZATION EXPERIMENTAL site Contaminated Aquifers
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偏远山区配电网的“光储充”双层优化配置策略
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作者 王果 李瑞 +3 位作者 陈鑫 闵永智 郭文凯 苏鹏飞 《高电压技术》 北大核心 2026年第3期1135-1145,I0013-I0027,共26页
针对偏远山区负荷分散、经济不发达、电压质量差、有功损耗高等问题,为满足新农村建设和新能源汽车下乡需求,通过配置光伏(photovoltaic,PV)、电池储能(battery energy storage system,BESS)和电动汽车充电桩(electric vehicle supply e... 针对偏远山区负荷分散、经济不发达、电压质量差、有功损耗高等问题,为满足新农村建设和新能源汽车下乡需求,通过配置光伏(photovoltaic,PV)、电池储能(battery energy storage system,BESS)和电动汽车充电桩(electric vehicle supply equipment,EVSE),在有效提升配电网供电质量的同时为改善民生提供电力保障。首先,通过概率模型处理偏远山区的PV出力和负荷不确定性,基于蒙特卡洛模拟偏远山区电动汽车(electric vehicle,EV)充电负荷,采用多场景分析法、时段划分法与K-means++聚类法构建综合考虑偏远山区EV充电负荷的源荷时序运行场景;其次,建立偏远山区配电网的“光储充”双层优化配置模型,上层规划层以综合成本最小为目标,确定PV、BESS和EVSE的位置与容量,下层运行层满足电压偏差小、有功损耗低的综合指标,实现PV、BESS和EVSE的最优模拟运行;再次,通过模型转换将双层模型转换为含上下层决策变量的单层多目标模型,提出多目标浣熊优化算法(multi-objective coati optimization algorithm,MOCOA)并对其改进得到改进MOCOA(improved multi-objective coati optimization algorithm,IMOCOA),采用IMOCOA和模糊数学法对转换后的模型求解得到最优配置方案;最后,以基于某偏远山区实际数据改进的IEEE 33节点配电网和西部陕南某偏远山区实际配电网分别进行验证,结果表明,所提配置策略适用于偏远山区配电网“光储充”优化,能在经济掣肘情况下显著提升电压质量、降低有功损耗,所提求解方法的计算速度相比于模型转换前提升70%以上,比NSGA2和MOPSO的求解精度更高。 展开更多
关键词 偏远山区配电网 光储充 双层优化配置 选址定容 模型转换 改进多目标浣熊优化算法
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中亚热带典型森林类型林分乔木碳储量生长模型
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作者 田惠玲 朱建华 +4 位作者 何潇 陈新云 王冉 肖文发 雷相东 《林业科学》 北大核心 2026年第2期15-24,共10页
【目的】融合立地因子、林龄与林分密度效应,构建中亚热带典型森林类型林分乔木碳储量生长模型,精准分析林分碳储量生长变化,为森林生长量精准估测、森林经营方案优化以及森林碳汇潜力预估等提供指导。【方法】以我国中亚热带典型森林... 【目的】融合立地因子、林龄与林分密度效应,构建中亚热带典型森林类型林分乔木碳储量生长模型,精准分析林分碳储量生长变化,为森林生长量精准估测、森林经营方案优化以及森林碳汇潜力预估等提供指导。【方法】以我国中亚热带典型森林类型为研究对象,利用森林资源连续清查的3.07万个3期乔木林固定样地调查数据,采用基于林分平均高生长的分级算法划分立地等级,以平均林龄、立地等级、林分密度指数等因子为解释变量,按区域、优势树种(组)构建不同林分起源碳储量生长模型,分析林分碳储量生长变化规律。【结果】1)中亚热带各林分平均高生长模型决定系数(R^(2))均达0.931及以上,树高总生长量随立地等级增加而增加,5个立地等级的高生长累积量水平接近等差数列,具有很好的分级结果。2)基于平均林龄、立地等级、林分密度指数的林分碳储量生长模型决定系数(R^(2))均达0.633及以上。不同林分起源碳储量生长模型的建模精度存在差异:对于针叶纯林,该模型在人工林中的拟合效果优于天然林;对于混交林,该模型在天然林中的拟合效果优于人工林;针叶树种比阔叶树种具有更好的拟合效果。3)各林分碳储量生长模型不同立地等级下林分碳储量的渐近值均呈a_(1)>a_(2)>a_(3)>a_(4)>a_(5)的趋势,且5个立地等级的林分碳储量接近等差数列。天然林每公顷林分碳储量极限值整体高于人工林,阔叶混交林在不同林分起源下均具有较高的林分碳储量。4)中立地等级条件下,人工林和天然林林分碳储量均随林龄增加而增大,并在近、成熟龄阶段开始趋于平稳。人工林林分碳储量的渐近值比天然林更早到达拐点林龄。【结论】本研究构建的各森林类型林分平均高生长模型和林分碳储量生长模型具有较好的拟合效果和较高的预估精度,含起源、林龄、立地等级、林分密度指数的林分碳储量生长模型可满足中亚热带区域主要树种(组)不同立地等级下林分碳储量随年龄动态变化预测的需要,还可用于编制该区域典型森林碳计量数表。 展开更多
关键词 高生长模型 立地等级 林分密度 林分碳储量生长模型
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Effect of pH on transport of Pb^(2+),Mn^(2+),Zn^(2+) and Ni^(2+) through lateritic soil: Column experiments and transport modeling 被引量:4
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作者 Srilert Chotpantarat Say Kee Ong +1 位作者 Chakkaphan Sutthirat Khemarath Osathaphan 《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2011年第4期640-648,共9页
This study investigated the effects of pH on the transport of Pb 2+ , Mn 2+ , Zn 2+ and Ni 2+ through lateritic soil columns. Model results by fitting the symmetric breakthrough curves (BTCs) of bromide (Br ) ... This study investigated the effects of pH on the transport of Pb 2+ , Mn 2+ , Zn 2+ and Ni 2+ through lateritic soil columns. Model results by fitting the symmetric breakthrough curves (BTCs) of bromide (Br ) with CXTFIT model suggested that physical non-equilibrium processes were absent in the columns. The heavy metal BTCs were, however, asymmetrical and exhibited a tailing phenomenon, indicating the presence of chemical non-equilibrium processes in the columns. The retardation factors of Pb 2+ were the largest of the four metal ions at both pH 4.0 (33.3) and pH 5.0 (35.4). The use of Langmuir isotherm parameters from batch studies with HYDRUS-1D did not predict the BTCs well. Rather the two-site model (TSM) described the heavy metal BTCs better than the equilibrium linear/nonlinear Langmuir model. The fraction of instantaneous sorption sites ( f ) of all four metal ions on the lateritic soil was consistently about 30%–44% of the total sorption sites. 展开更多
关键词 pH effect heavy metals HYDRUS-1D two-site model lateritic soil
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考虑场地液化的钢筋混凝土框架结构沉降的影响因素分析
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作者 索思怡 陈龙伟 +2 位作者 肖琳 甘声聪 王钰杰 《世界地震工程》 北大核心 2026年第2期164-174,共11页
近期国内外破坏性地震中液化场地建筑结构沉降现象突出、震害严重,成为建筑结构抗震的薄弱环节。基于OpenSees平台构建3层土地基上的8层钢筋混凝土框架结构简化二维有限元模型,考虑地震动峰值加速度(peak ground acceleration,PGA)、可... 近期国内外破坏性地震中液化场地建筑结构沉降现象突出、震害严重,成为建筑结构抗震的薄弱环节。基于OpenSees平台构建3层土地基上的8层钢筋混凝土框架结构简化二维有限元模型,考虑地震动峰值加速度(peak ground acceleration,PGA)、可液化砂土层厚度及是否液化等3种因素组合的共32组工况,通过非线性动力分析计算,分析了3种因素对结构沉降的影响规律。分析结果揭示了土层液化对建筑结构沉降影响显著,且实际液化层厚度对建筑物沉降起到控制作用;结构沉降与地震动强度相关性较大,当地震动强度超过一定值时,结构沉降随着地震动强度的增大而增长。研究结果为评估液化场地结构沉降提供支撑,为结构抗液化设计与震后变形控制提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 结构沉降 多层RC框架结构 可液化场地 简化模型 OPENSEES
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工程质量潜在缺陷保险驻场模式研究
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作者 朱奎 汪圣波 +1 位作者 黄达 胡正华 《建筑施工》 2026年第3期329-334,共6页
基于“保险+服务+科技”理念构建工程质量潜在缺陷保险驻场模式,阐述了其管理运行模式和创新特色。通过驻场式管理健全风险控制、完善政策配套、推进数字赋能等机制,尤其在“一户一芯”管理、3 h复查闭合管理及数字化管理等创新举措上,... 基于“保险+服务+科技”理念构建工程质量潜在缺陷保险驻场模式,阐述了其管理运行模式和创新特色。通过驻场式管理健全风险控制、完善政策配套、推进数字赋能等机制,尤其在“一户一芯”管理、3 h复查闭合管理及数字化管理等创新举措上,实现工程质量风险的有效管控。该模式在推进政府职能转变、完善质量监管体系、提升群众满意度等方面成效显著,为建筑行业工程质量管理提供了创新路径与有益借鉴。 展开更多
关键词 工程质量潜在缺陷保险 驻场模式 风险管理 数字赋能 质量监管体系
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消化系统希瓦氏菌相关手术部位感染的临床特征与耐药趋势
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作者 李昱 杨蕙 +3 位作者 张晓录 吴艳 黄葆华 谷钰峰 《中华医院感染学杂志》 北大核心 2026年第3期362-366,共5页
目的分析希瓦氏菌相关手术部位感染(SSI)的临床特征及耐药趋势,并通过联合预后模型评估患者的死亡风险。方法回顾性分析烟台毓璜顶医院2013-2023年收治的45例希瓦氏菌相关SSI患者的临床资料,结合微生物学检测、药物敏感试验及预后模型[... 目的分析希瓦氏菌相关手术部位感染(SSI)的临床特征及耐药趋势,并通过联合预后模型评估患者的死亡风险。方法回顾性分析烟台毓璜顶医院2013-2023年收治的45例希瓦氏菌相关SSI患者的临床资料,结合微生物学检测、药物敏感试验及预后模型[血浆白细胞介素-6(IL-6)联合Howell-PIRO评分],归纳其感染特征、耐药性及死亡风险。结果共分离希瓦氏菌45株,其中腐败希瓦氏菌32株,海藻希瓦氏菌13株,感染模式多为混合感染。希瓦氏菌对替卡西林-克拉维酸耐药率最高(26.67%,12/45),其次为头孢哌酮/舒巴坦(22.22%,10/45)和环丙沙星(20.00%,9/45)。联合预后模型(IL-6+Howell-PIRO)的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.935,敏感度为93.35%,特异度为92.14%,优于单一指标(P<0.05)。生物信息学分析表明,希瓦氏菌表达胆汁水解和脂肪酸代谢等多种操纵子以适应胆道的特殊环境,可表达包括β-内酰胺酶和氨基糖苷修饰酶在内的多种抗菌药物耐药基因。铁载体可能是其重要的毒力因子之一。结论希瓦氏菌属可能作为肠道定植菌,通过手术侵入引发SSI,其耐药率高及混合感染模式可显著增加病死率。建议沿海地区医院优化抗菌药物方案,并利用联合模型早期识别高危患者。 展开更多
关键词 医院感染 希瓦氏菌属 手术部位感染 多重耐药 预后模型
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基于STNSRP扰动降尺度的太湖流域未来降雨预测 被引量:1
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作者 蒋飞卿 朱易青 +5 位作者 朱超 陈宇飞 夏翔 牛智星 嵇海祥 王赠安 《水资源保护》 北大核心 2026年第1期173-183,共11页
针对当前统计降尺度方法在模拟极端降雨时的不足,将不确定性估计与降尺度结合,采用多站点Neyman-Scott矩形脉冲(STNSRP)模型,引入基于全球气候模式的扰动变化因子,开发了针对极端降雨的STNSRP扰动降尺度模型,据此预测了2026—2100年太... 针对当前统计降尺度方法在模拟极端降雨时的不足,将不确定性估计与降尺度结合,采用多站点Neyman-Scott矩形脉冲(STNSRP)模型,引入基于全球气候模式的扰动变化因子,开发了针对极端降雨的STNSRP扰动降尺度模型,据此预测了2026—2100年太湖流域的降雨。结果表明:STNSRP扰动降尺度模型采用随机点过程模拟降雨,有效模拟了降雨的极端特征,并提高了模拟精度,其模拟效果优于传统Delta法和Neyman-Scott矩形脉冲扰动降尺度模型;太湖流域2026—2100年年降水量呈增加趋势,增幅约为0.939 mm/a;汛期降水量大部分时间增加,且增加幅度随近期、中期、远期的时间推移而增大,而1月和10—11月的降水量将减少;西部山区未来降水量增幅大于东部平原区,浙西区大于湖西区;太湖流域降雨将趋于集中化,极端降雨强度和频率均有所增加;太湖流域未来水旱灾害防御中应着重加强防洪排涝工程体系建设,科学优化水库调度与水资源配置策略,健全极端天气下的应急响应机制。 展开更多
关键词 降雨预测 极端降雨 GCM降尺度 多站点Neyman-Scott矩形脉冲模型 扰动降尺度模型 太湖流域
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川滇地区人工智能地震预测模型应用
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作者 孟令媛 胡峰 +7 位作者 臧阳 司旭 闫伟 田雷 赵小艳 张致伟 韩颜颜 王月 《地震研究》 北大核心 2026年第1期43-50,共8页
针对中国地震科学实验场的科学目标和主要科学问题,基于川滇地区地震目录和地球物理观测数据,在对川滇地区进行区域划分并建立图神经网络的基础上,构建了川滇地区地震预测模型。该模型综合考虑约3万条地震目录数据、基于地震目录的3种... 针对中国地震科学实验场的科学目标和主要科学问题,基于川滇地区地震目录和地球物理观测数据,在对川滇地区进行区域划分并建立图神经网络的基础上,构建了川滇地区地震预测模型。该模型综合考虑约3万条地震目录数据、基于地震目录的3种地震活动性参数,以及116台项地球物理观测数据,通过将传统经验预测指标方法与人工智能技术结合,给出了适用于川滇地区的多源异构数据图神经网络地震预测模型,实现了川滇地区不同数据源下短期与中期地震预测功能。模型应用结果显示,在CD2、CD8和CD10区域月尺度预测效果较好,年尺度无震预测有一定对应效果。 展开更多
关键词 中国地震科学实验场 多源异构数据 图神经网络 地震预测模型 川滇地区
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随机有限断层地震动模拟输入参数模型研究进展
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作者 党鹏飞 崔杰 刘启方 《地震工程学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期145-156,共12页
强地震动受震源、传播路径及局部场地条件等多种因素的影响。目前,基于大尺度区域观测记录建立的地震动参数模型,在应用随机有限断层法模拟近场破坏性地震的地震动场时,常因未充分考虑参数模型的区域性特征,易导致参数不一致、模拟结果... 强地震动受震源、传播路径及局部场地条件等多种因素的影响。目前,基于大尺度区域观测记录建立的地震动参数模型,在应用随机有限断层法模拟近场破坏性地震的地震动场时,常因未充分考虑参数模型的区域性特征,易导致参数不一致、模拟结果不确定性增大或精度不足等问题。文章梳理近场高频地震动模拟技术还需深化研究的若干方面,并从震源断层几何尺度与滑移分布、地震动几何传播与滞弹性衰减、震源谱高频衰减参数及局部场地效应四个方面,系统总结相关地震动模型参数的研究进展与待解决问题。基于强震动观测记录,探究小尺度区域地震动模型参数的统计规律、内在关系及其相互作用机制,发展地震动场精细化模拟方法,对于评估地震动模拟结果的可靠性具有重要实践意义,对灾后重建与应急救援、结构动力分析及抗震设计等具有重要的学术价值和工程指导意义,还可为基于情景地震的结构概率地震需求分析提供思路。 展开更多
关键词 地震动模拟 路径效应 场地效应 震源模型 广义反演技术
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Numerical Analysis of PRISM-PY Calculations for Hard-and Soft-Core Generic Polymer Models
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作者 Qiang Wang 《Chinese Journal of Polymer Science》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第4期532-543,共12页
Generic polymer models capturing the chain connectivity and excluded-volume interactions between polymer segments can be classified, according to whether or not the 3D integral of the latter diverges, into hard- and s... Generic polymer models capturing the chain connectivity and excluded-volume interactions between polymer segments can be classified, according to whether or not the 3D integral of the latter diverges, into hard- and soft-core models. Taking homogeneous systems of compressible homopolymer melts (or equivalently homopolymer solutions in an implicit, good solvent) in the continuum as an example, we recently compared the correlation effects on the structural and thermodynamic properties of the hard- and soft-core models given by the polymer reference interaction site model (PRISM) theory with the Percus-Yevick (PY) closure (Polymers 2023, 15, 1180). Here we analyzed in detail the numerical errors and behavior of the interchain pair correlation functions (PCFs) given by the PRISM-PY calculations of these models using an efficient numerical approach that we proposed. Our numerical approach has the least number of independent variables to be iteratively solved, analytically treats the discontinuities caused by the non-bonded pair potential (such as that of the hard spheres) and takes only the inverse Fourier transform of the interchain indirect PCF between polymer segments (which is continuous and decays towards 0 with increasing wavenumber much faster than both the interchain direct and total PCFs), and is essential for us to accurately solve the PRISM-PY theory for chain length N as large as 106. To capture the correlation-hole effect, the real-space cut-off in the PRISM calculations should be proportional to the square root of N. 展开更多
关键词 Generic polymer models Soft potentials Polymer reference interaction site model theory
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