Leveraging digital technology for effective decision making requires tools that can comprehend detailed complex process of healthcare organizations. Considering all dimensions, simulation is applicable in many ways th...Leveraging digital technology for effective decision making requires tools that can comprehend detailed complex process of healthcare organizations. Considering all dimensions, simulation is applicable in many ways throughout the healthcare system due to its ability to capture and mimic detail complexity in clinical operations decisions. Healthcare simulation not only helps ensure that providing services of the highest quality, but simulation ultimately increases the ability of following best practices, quality improvement, and risk management activities. Moreover, this representation of healthcare system has become a primary tool by which increased patient safety can be integrated and facilitated into clinical practices. This article presents a simulation model for healthcare outpatient clinics. This model aims to aid in setting up management guidelines and propose procedure to improve the operation of the clinics and to optimize the performance of such dynamic healthcare clinic. Model optimization is used to find out the optimal staff as resources, which includes physician, nurses, and clinics minimize patient length of stay and smooth patient flow.展开更多
With the aid of multi-agent based modeling approach to complex systems, the hierarchy simulation models of carrier-based aircraft catapult launch are developed. Ocean, carrier, aircraft, and atmosphere are treated as ...With the aid of multi-agent based modeling approach to complex systems, the hierarchy simulation models of carrier-based aircraft catapult launch are developed. Ocean, carrier, aircraft, and atmosphere are treated as aggregation agents, the detailed components like catapult, landing gears, and disturbances are considered as meta-agents, which belong to their aggregation agent. Thus, the model with two layers is formed i.e. the aggregation agent layer and the meta-agent layer. The information communication among all agents is described. The meta-agents within one aggregation agent communicate with each other directly by information sharing, but the meta-agents, which belong to different aggregation agents exchange their information through the aggregation layer first, and then perceive it from the sharing environment, that is the aggregation agent. Thus, not only the hierarchy model is built, but also the environment perceived by each agent is specified. Meanwhile, the problem of balancing the independency of agent and the resource consumption brought by real-time communication within multi-agent system （MAS） is resolved. Each agent involved in carrier-based aircraft catapult launch is depicted, with considering the interaction within disturbed atmospheric environment and multiple motion bodies including carrier, aircraft, and landing gears. The models of reactive agents among them are derived based on tensors, and the perceived messages and inner frameworks of each agent are characterized. Finally, some results of a simulation instance are given. The simulation and modeling of dynamic system based on multi-agent system is of benefit to express physical concepts and logical hierarchy clearly and precisely. The system model can easily draw in kinds of other agents to achieve a precise simulation of more complex system. This modeling technique makes the complex integral dynamic equations of multibodies decompose into parallel operations of single agent, and it is convenient to expand, maintain, and reuse the program codes.展开更多
Widespread implementation of electronic health records has led to the increased use of artificial intelligence(AI)and computer modeling in clinical medicine.The early recognition and treatment of critical illness are ...Widespread implementation of electronic health records has led to the increased use of artificial intelligence(AI)and computer modeling in clinical medicine.The early recognition and treatment of critical illness are central to good outcomes but are made difficult by,among other things,the complexity of the environment and the often non-specific nature of the clinical presentation.Increasingly,AI applications are being proposed as decision supports for busy or distracted clinicians,to address this challenge.Data driven“associative”AI models are built from retrospective data registries with missing data and imprecise timing.Associative AI models lack transparency,often ignore causal mechanisms,and,while potentially useful in improved prognostication,have thus far had limited clinical applicability.To be clinically useful,AI tools need to provide bedside clinicians with actionable knowledge.Explicitly addressing causal mechanisms not only increases validity and replicability of the model,but also adds transparency and helps gain trust from the bedside clinicians for real world use of AI models in teaching and patient care.展开更多
The aim of this paper is to present graphically the behaviour of a simulation model to the varying parameters and to establish the suitability of this representation as a valid tool for the analysis of the same parame...The aim of this paper is to present graphically the behaviour of a simulation model to the varying parameters and to establish the suitability of this representation as a valid tool for the analysis of the same parameters. In this paper, we define parameter combinatorial diagram as the joint graphical representation of all box plots related to the adjustment between real and simulated data, by setting and/or changing the parameters of the simulation model. To do this, we start with a box plot representing the values of an objective adjustment function, achieving these results when varying all the parameters of the simulation model, Then we draw the box plot when setting all the parameters of the model, for example, using the median or average. Later, we get all the box plots when carrying out simulations combining fixed or variable values of the model parameters. Finally, all box plots obtained are represented neatly in a single graph. It is intended that the new parameter combinatorial diagram is used to examine and analyze simulation models useful in practice. This paper presents combinatorial diagrams of different examples of application as in the case of hydrologic models of one, two, three, and five parameters.展开更多
Among various power system disturbances,cascading failures are considered the most serious and extreme threats to grid operations,potentially leading to significant stability issues or even widespread power blackouts....Among various power system disturbances,cascading failures are considered the most serious and extreme threats to grid operations,potentially leading to significant stability issues or even widespread power blackouts.Simulating power systems’behaviors during cascading failures is of great importance to comprehend how failures originate and propagate,as well as to develop effective preventive and mitigative control strategies.The intricate mechanism of cascading failures,characterized by multi-timescale dynamics,presents exceptional challenges for their simulations.This paper provides a comprehensive review of simulation models for cascading failures,providing a systematic categorization and a comparison of these models.The challenges and potential research directions for the future are also discussed.展开更多
Computer simulation models may by used to gain further information about missile performance variability. Model validation is an important aspect of the test program for a missile system. Validation provides a basis f...Computer simulation models may by used to gain further information about missile performance variability. Model validation is an important aspect of the test program for a missile system. Validation provides a basis for confidence in the model's results and is a necessary step if the model is to be used to draw inference about the behavior of the real missile. This paper is a review of methods useful for validation of computer simulation models of missile systems and provides a new method with high degree of confidence for validation of computer simulation models of missile systems. Some examples of the use of the new method in validating computer simulation models are given.展开更多
There is a close relationship between agricultural production and environmental meteorological conditions. In the study of the correlation between them, the simulation models are paid more attention to the crop growth...There is a close relationship between agricultural production and environmental meteorological conditions. In the study of the correlation between them, the simulation models are paid more attention to the crop growth. In this paper the development of the studies on the crop growth dynamic simulation model in China is briefly reviewed. The relationships between meteorological conditions and each process of crop growth (such as photosynthesis, respiration, accumulation and distribution of assimilation products and growth of leaf area) are studied and simulated basing on the results from field experiments. Preliminary models for rice, wheat, maize and soybean have been developed, and some investigations about modelling methods, procedures and parameters in simulation models are made.展开更多
Automotive manufacturing is complex and includes the coordination of design in the manufacturing system. The manufacturing approaches over the past few years, disassembly have been a key issue, and it seems that simul...Automotive manufacturing is complex and includes the coordination of design in the manufacturing system. The manufacturing approaches over the past few years, disassembly have been a key issue, and it seems that simulation models are usually tailored to address a narrow set of industrial issues. This paper describes the development of the production line in the automobile manufacturing system through design, operation, and maintenance, based on multi-objectives of Algorithm and Simulation Model called MOA-SM. The both models are being developed at three different levels： the production line in the body and assembly shop, supply chain, and the production plan. The optimization tries to involve more objectives to solve the issues in manufacturing system. A solution that may optimize one performance measure may deteriorate since other performance solutions are difficult. The resulting algorithms are comparable to the simulation and multi-object in terms of success rate, assembly times, peak forces, moments, and have assembly times superior to those of a benchmark blind search algorithm.展开更多
Objective: To explore the effectiveness of applying patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation teaching models on intravenous (IV) infusion nursing education, and to provide scientific evidence...Objective: To explore the effectiveness of applying patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation teaching models on intravenous (IV) infusion nursing education, and to provide scientific evidence for the implementation of advanced teaching models in future nursing education. Methods: Enrolled 60 nurses who took the IV infusion therapy training program in our hospital from January 2022 to December 2023 for research. 30 nurses who were trained in traditional teaching models from January to December 2022 were selected as the control group, and 30 nurses who were trained with simulation-based teaching models with methods including simulated patients, internet, online meetings which can be replayed and scenario simulation, etc. from January to December 2023 were selected as the experimental group. Evaluated the learning outcomes based on the Competency Inventory for Nursing Students (CINS), Problem-Solving Inventory (PSI), comprehensive learning ability, scientific research ability, and proficiency in the theoretical knowledge and practical skills of IV infusion therapy. Nursing quality, the incidence of IV infusion therapy complications and nurse satisfaction with different teaching models were also measured. Results: The scientific research ability, PSI scores, CINS scores, and comprehensive learning ability of the experimental group were better than those of the control group (P 0.05), and their assessment results of practical skills, nursing quality of IV infusion therapy during training, and satisfaction with teaching models were all better than those of the control group with statistical significance (P < 0.05). The incidence of IV infusion therapy complications in the experimental group was lower than that in the control group, indicating statistical significance (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Teaching models based on patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation enable nursing students to learn more directly and practice at any time and in any place, and can improve their proficiency in IV infusion theoretical knowledge and skills (e.g. PICC catheterization), core competencies, problem-solving ability, comprehensive learning ability, scientific research ability and the ability to deal with complicated cases. Also, it helps provide high-quality nursing education, improve the nursing quality of IV therapy, reduce the incidence of related complications, and ensure the safety of patients with IV therapy.展开更多
Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and t...Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and temporal change characteristics of ecological network and analyzing the integrated relationship between LUCC and ecological security are crucial for ensuring regional ecological security.Gansu is one of the provinces with fragile ecological environment in China,and rapid changes in land use patterns in recent decades have threatened ecological security.Therefore,taking Gansu Province as the study area,this study simulated its land use pattern in 2050 using patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model based on the LUCC trend from 2000 to 2020 and integrated the LUCC into morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)to identify ecological sources and extract the ecological corridors to construct ecological network using circuit theory.The results revealed that,according to the prediction results in 2050,the areas of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water body,construction land,and unused land would be 63,447.52,39,510.80,148,115.18,4605.21,8368.89,and 161,752.40 km^(2),respectively.The number of ecological sources in Gansu Province would increase to 80,with a total area of 99,927.18 km^(2).The number of ecological corridors would increase to 191,with an estimated total length of 6120.66 km.Both ecological sources and ecological corridors showed a sparse distribution in the northwest and dense distribution in the southeast of the province at the spatial scale.The number of ecological pinch points would reach 312 and the total area would expect to increase to 842.84 km^(2),with the most pronounced increase in the Longdong region.Compared with 2020,the number and area of ecological barriers in 2050 would decrease significantly by 63 and 370.71 km^(2),respectively.In general,based on the prediction results,the connectivity of ecological network of Gansu Province would increase in 2050.To achieve the predicted ecological network in 2050,emphasis should be placed on the protection of cultivated land and ecological land,the establishment of ecological sources in desert areas,the reinforcement of the protection for existing ecological sources,and the construction of ecological corridors to enhance the stability of ecological network.This study provides valuable theoretical support and references for the future construction of ecological networks and regional land resource management decision-making.展开更多
The Erenhot-Huailai zone, as an important dust emission source area in northern China, affects the air quality of Beijing City, Tianjin City, and Hebei Province and human activities in this zone have a profound impact...The Erenhot-Huailai zone, as an important dust emission source area in northern China, affects the air quality of Beijing City, Tianjin City, and Hebei Province and human activities in this zone have a profound impact on surface dust emission. In order to explore the main source areas of surface dust emission and quantify the impacts of human activities on surface dust emission, we investigated the surface dust emission of different land types on the Erenhot-Huailai zone by model simulation, field observation, and comparative analysis. The results showed that the average annual inhalable atmospheric particles(PM_(10)) dust emission fluxes in arid grassland, Hunshandake Sandy Land, semi-arid grassland,semi-arid agro-pastoral area, dry sub-humid agro-pastoral area, and semi-humid agro-pastoral area were 4.41, 0.71, 3.64, 1.94, 0.24, and 0.14 t/hm^(2), respectively, and dust emission in these lands occurred mainly from April to May. Due to the influence of human activities on surface dust emission, dust emission fluxes from different land types were 1.66–4.41 times greater than those of their background areas, and dust emission fluxes from the main dust source areas were 1.66–3.89 times greater than those of their background areas. According to calculation, the amount of PM_(10) dust emission influenced by human disturbance accounted for up to 58.00% of the total dust emission in the study area. In addition, the comparative analysis of model simulation and field observation results showed that the simulated and observed dust emission fluxes were relatively close to each other, with differences ranging from 0.01 to 0.21 t/hm^(2) in different months, which indicated that the community land model version 4.5(CLM4.5) had a high accuracy. In conclusion, model simulation results have important reference significance for identifying dust source areas and quantifying the contribution of human activities to surface dust emission.展开更多
In recent years,rapid urbanization has had a profound impact on landscape stability.As a typical example of China's rapid urbanization,Hangzhou has also experienced significant landscape changes,which have profoun...In recent years,rapid urbanization has had a profound impact on landscape stability.As a typical example of China's rapid urbanization,Hangzhou has also experienced significant landscape changes,which have profoundly affected its ecological stability.Taking Hangzhou as an example,this study integrates land use change data from 1980 to 2020,combines dynamic simulation and ecological modeling techniques,and carries out a comprehensive analysis of historical trends and future predictions,to provide valuable insights into the complex interactions between urban expansion and landscape stability.The results indicate that:1)between 1980 and2020,Hangzhou experienced a significant increase in construction land at the expense of arable land,leading to a gradual decline in landscape stability,though the downward trend has slowed in recent years.2)The spatial distribution of landscape stability shows clear aggregation patterns,with lower stability concentrated in economically active flatlands and higher stability in the mountainous western regions.3)By 2040,further urban expansion is predicted to occur alongside increased landscape integration,reflecting the positive effects of ecological protection strategies.This study highlights the universal challenges of balancing economic growth with ecological stability in rapidly urbanizing regions.The combination of advanced simulation models and spatiotemporal analysis demonstrates a replicable framework for assessing urban expansion's ecological impacts.These findings underscore the importance of tailoring urban planning and ecological policies to address regional disparities,providing valuable insights for sustainable urban development and landscape management globally.展开更多
Modeling and simulation(M&S)play a critical role in both engineering and basic research processes.Computer-based models have existed since the 1950s,and those early models have given way to the more complex comput...Modeling and simulation(M&S)play a critical role in both engineering and basic research processes.Computer-based models have existed since the 1950s,and those early models have given way to the more complex computational and physics-based simula-tions used today.As such,a great deal of research has been done to establish what level of trust should be given to simulation outputs and how to verify and validate the mod-els used in these simulations.This paper presents an overview of the theoretical work done to date defining formal definitions for,and methods of,verification and validation(V&V)of computer models.Simulation models are broken down into three broad cate-gories:analytical and simulation models,computational and physics-based models,and simulations of autonomous systems,and the unique theories and methods developed to address V&V of these models are presented.This paper also presents the current prob-lems in the theoretical field of V&V for models as simulations move from single system models and simulations to more complex simulation tools.In particular,this paper high-lights the lack of agreed-upon methods for V&V of simulations of autonomous systems,such as an autonomous unmanned vehicles,and proposes some next steps needed to address this problem.展开更多
With the development of science and technology, great changes have taken place in medical education, making it increasingly complicated and diversified. For medical students who have just finished basic medicine cours...With the development of science and technology, great changes have taken place in medical education, making it increasingly complicated and diversified. For medical students who have just finished basic medicine courses and are preparing for their hospital internships, it is difficult to gain experience performing direct physical examinations on patients. Currently, residents＇ clinical skills are assessed very strictly; simply taking notes and reciting facts will not suffice. Because considerable attention is being paid to medical students＂ clinical skills on a national level,展开更多
Geospatial simulation models can help us understand the dynamic aspects of Digital Earth.To implement high-performance simulation models for complex geospatial problems,grid computing and cloud computing are two promi...Geospatial simulation models can help us understand the dynamic aspects of Digital Earth.To implement high-performance simulation models for complex geospatial problems,grid computing and cloud computing are two promising computational frameworks.This research compares the benefits and drawbacks of both in Web-based frameworks by testing a parallel Geographic Information System(GIS)simulation model(Schelling’s residential segregation model).The parallel GIS simulation model was tested on XSEDE(a representative grid computing platform)and Amazon EC2(a representative cloud computing platform).The test results demonstrate that cloud computing platforms can provide almost the same parallel computing capability as high-end grid computing frameworks.However,cloud computing resources are more accessible to individual scientists,easier to request and set up,and have more scalable software architecture for on-demand and dedicated Web services.These advantages may attract more geospatial scientists to utilize cloud computing for the development of Digital Earth simulation models in the future.展开更多
For the practical simulation and performance evaluation of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)Ricean fading channels,it is desirable to develop accurate UAV-MIMO channel simulation models ...For the practical simulation and performance evaluation of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)Ricean fading channels,it is desirable to develop accurate UAV-MIMO channel simulation models for more realistic scenarios of non-isotropic scattering.In this study,using a twocylinder reference model to describe the distribution of scatterers,we propose new deterministic and stochastic simulation models.Analytical and numerical results indicate that both simulation models provide good approximations to the desired statistical properties of the reference model,and the stochastic simulation model results in a better performance under comparable computational complexity.展开更多
As the proportion of renewable energy infiltrating the power grid increases,suppressing its randomness and volatility,reducing its impact on the safe operation of the power grid,and improving the level of new energy c...As the proportion of renewable energy infiltrating the power grid increases,suppressing its randomness and volatility,reducing its impact on the safe operation of the power grid,and improving the level of new energy consumption are increasingly important.For these purposes,energy storage stations(ESS)are receiving increasing attention.This article discusses the structure,working principle,and control methods of grid-following and grid-forming energy-storage converters,which are currently commonly used.A simulation analysis was conducted to investigate their dynamic response characteristics.The advantages and disadvantages of two types of energy storage power stations are discussed,and a configuration strategy for hybrid ESS is proposed.This paper presents research on and a simulation analysis of grid-forming and grid-following hybrid energy storage systems considering two types of energy storage according to different capacity scenarios.Finally,a comparative analysis between the systems is presented.A simulation model was established using PSD-BPA(Power System Department-Bonneville Power Administration)to analyze the impact of the capacity ratio of grid-following and grid-forming ESS on their dynamic response characteristics in a hybrid ESS.In addition,a development direction for future ESSs is indicated.展开更多
Ports play an increasingly important role in the freight transportation chain due to containerization. High vessel flows and higher densities increase the relevance of the non- terminal related processes. Several simu...Ports play an increasingly important role in the freight transportation chain due to containerization. High vessel flows and higher densities increase the relevance of the non- terminal related processes. Several simulation models have been developed in the recent decades with different goals, but their abilities to represent realistic vessel traffic in ports differ. In this paper, we identify the main navigational processes and operations related to the port nautical infrastructure, and review and assess the current port simulation models. This survey represents an exhaustive review of the state-of-the-art of simulation models for port assessment purposes focussing on safety and capacity. The model assessment focuses on the identification of the relevant criteria to represent vessel navigation, based on which processes are covered by each model and how they have been considered in each model. The assessment covers the nautical infrastructure representation and the naviga- tional behaviour. The outcome of this review will be used for the development of a simulation based port assessment methodology. Future port simulation models should include the suitable criteria for a more realistic traffic representation that allows a proper safety and capacity port analysis and assessment.展开更多
Geographic simulation models can be used to explore and better understand the geographical environment. Recent advances in geographic and socio-environmental research have led to a dramatic increase in the number of m...Geographic simulation models can be used to explore and better understand the geographical environment. Recent advances in geographic and socio-environmental research have led to a dramatic increase in the number of models used for this purpose. Some model repositories provide opportunities for users to explore and apply models,but few provide a general evaluation method for assessing the applicability and recognition of models. In this study,an academic impact evaluation method for models is proposed. Five indices are designed based on their pertinence. The analytical hierarchy process is used to calculate the index weights,and the academic impacts of models are quantified with the weighted sum method. The time range is controlled to evaluate the life-term and annual academic impacts of the models. Some models that met the evaluation criteria from different domains are then evaluated. The results show that the academic impact of a model can be quantified with the proposed method,and the major research areas that models impact are identified.展开更多
Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover chang...Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.展开更多
文摘Leveraging digital technology for effective decision making requires tools that can comprehend detailed complex process of healthcare organizations. Considering all dimensions, simulation is applicable in many ways throughout the healthcare system due to its ability to capture and mimic detail complexity in clinical operations decisions. Healthcare simulation not only helps ensure that providing services of the highest quality, but simulation ultimately increases the ability of following best practices, quality improvement, and risk management activities. Moreover, this representation of healthcare system has become a primary tool by which increased patient safety can be integrated and facilitated into clinical practices. This article presents a simulation model for healthcare outpatient clinics. This model aims to aid in setting up management guidelines and propose procedure to improve the operation of the clinics and to optimize the performance of such dynamic healthcare clinic. Model optimization is used to find out the optimal staff as resources, which includes physician, nurses, and clinics minimize patient length of stay and smooth patient flow.
基金Aeronautical Science Foundation of China (2006ZA51004)
文摘With the aid of multi-agent based modeling approach to complex systems, the hierarchy simulation models of carrier-based aircraft catapult launch are developed. Ocean, carrier, aircraft, and atmosphere are treated as aggregation agents, the detailed components like catapult, landing gears, and disturbances are considered as meta-agents, which belong to their aggregation agent. Thus, the model with two layers is formed i.e. the aggregation agent layer and the meta-agent layer. The information communication among all agents is described. The meta-agents within one aggregation agent communicate with each other directly by information sharing, but the meta-agents, which belong to different aggregation agents exchange their information through the aggregation layer first, and then perceive it from the sharing environment, that is the aggregation agent. Thus, not only the hierarchy model is built, but also the environment perceived by each agent is specified. Meanwhile, the problem of balancing the independency of agent and the resource consumption brought by real-time communication within multi-agent system （MAS） is resolved. Each agent involved in carrier-based aircraft catapult launch is depicted, with considering the interaction within disturbed atmospheric environment and multiple motion bodies including carrier, aircraft, and landing gears. The models of reactive agents among them are derived based on tensors, and the perceived messages and inner frameworks of each agent are characterized. Finally, some results of a simulation instance are given. The simulation and modeling of dynamic system based on multi-agent system is of benefit to express physical concepts and logical hierarchy clearly and precisely. The system model can easily draw in kinds of other agents to achieve a precise simulation of more complex system. This modeling technique makes the complex integral dynamic equations of multibodies decompose into parallel operations of single agent, and it is convenient to expand, maintain, and reuse the program codes.
文摘Widespread implementation of electronic health records has led to the increased use of artificial intelligence(AI)and computer modeling in clinical medicine.The early recognition and treatment of critical illness are central to good outcomes but are made difficult by,among other things,the complexity of the environment and the often non-specific nature of the clinical presentation.Increasingly,AI applications are being proposed as decision supports for busy or distracted clinicians,to address this challenge.Data driven“associative”AI models are built from retrospective data registries with missing data and imprecise timing.Associative AI models lack transparency,often ignore causal mechanisms,and,while potentially useful in improved prognostication,have thus far had limited clinical applicability.To be clinically useful,AI tools need to provide bedside clinicians with actionable knowledge.Explicitly addressing causal mechanisms not only increases validity and replicability of the model,but also adds transparency and helps gain trust from the bedside clinicians for real world use of AI models in teaching and patient care.
文摘The aim of this paper is to present graphically the behaviour of a simulation model to the varying parameters and to establish the suitability of this representation as a valid tool for the analysis of the same parameters. In this paper, we define parameter combinatorial diagram as the joint graphical representation of all box plots related to the adjustment between real and simulated data, by setting and/or changing the parameters of the simulation model. To do this, we start with a box plot representing the values of an objective adjustment function, achieving these results when varying all the parameters of the simulation model, Then we draw the box plot when setting all the parameters of the model, for example, using the median or average. Later, we get all the box plots when carrying out simulations combining fixed or variable values of the model parameters. Finally, all box plots obtained are represented neatly in a single graph. It is intended that the new parameter combinatorial diagram is used to examine and analyze simulation models useful in practice. This paper presents combinatorial diagrams of different examples of application as in the case of hydrologic models of one, two, three, and five parameters.
基金supported by UT-Battelle,LLC under Contract No.DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S.Department of Energy.
文摘Among various power system disturbances,cascading failures are considered the most serious and extreme threats to grid operations,potentially leading to significant stability issues or even widespread power blackouts.Simulating power systems’behaviors during cascading failures is of great importance to comprehend how failures originate and propagate,as well as to develop effective preventive and mitigative control strategies.The intricate mechanism of cascading failures,characterized by multi-timescale dynamics,presents exceptional challenges for their simulations.This paper provides a comprehensive review of simulation models for cascading failures,providing a systematic categorization and a comparison of these models.The challenges and potential research directions for the future are also discussed.
文摘Computer simulation models may by used to gain further information about missile performance variability. Model validation is an important aspect of the test program for a missile system. Validation provides a basis for confidence in the model's results and is a necessary step if the model is to be used to draw inference about the behavior of the real missile. This paper is a review of methods useful for validation of computer simulation models of missile systems and provides a new method with high degree of confidence for validation of computer simulation models of missile systems. Some examples of the use of the new method in validating computer simulation models are given.
文摘There is a close relationship between agricultural production and environmental meteorological conditions. In the study of the correlation between them, the simulation models are paid more attention to the crop growth. In this paper the development of the studies on the crop growth dynamic simulation model in China is briefly reviewed. The relationships between meteorological conditions and each process of crop growth (such as photosynthesis, respiration, accumulation and distribution of assimilation products and growth of leaf area) are studied and simulated basing on the results from field experiments. Preliminary models for rice, wheat, maize and soybean have been developed, and some investigations about modelling methods, procedures and parameters in simulation models are made.
文摘Automotive manufacturing is complex and includes the coordination of design in the manufacturing system. The manufacturing approaches over the past few years, disassembly have been a key issue, and it seems that simulation models are usually tailored to address a narrow set of industrial issues. This paper describes the development of the production line in the automobile manufacturing system through design, operation, and maintenance, based on multi-objectives of Algorithm and Simulation Model called MOA-SM. The both models are being developed at three different levels： the production line in the body and assembly shop, supply chain, and the production plan. The optimization tries to involve more objectives to solve the issues in manufacturing system. A solution that may optimize one performance measure may deteriorate since other performance solutions are difficult. The resulting algorithms are comparable to the simulation and multi-object in terms of success rate, assembly times, peak forces, moments, and have assembly times superior to those of a benchmark blind search algorithm.
文摘Objective: To explore the effectiveness of applying patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation teaching models on intravenous (IV) infusion nursing education, and to provide scientific evidence for the implementation of advanced teaching models in future nursing education. Methods: Enrolled 60 nurses who took the IV infusion therapy training program in our hospital from January 2022 to December 2023 for research. 30 nurses who were trained in traditional teaching models from January to December 2022 were selected as the control group, and 30 nurses who were trained with simulation-based teaching models with methods including simulated patients, internet, online meetings which can be replayed and scenario simulation, etc. from January to December 2023 were selected as the experimental group. Evaluated the learning outcomes based on the Competency Inventory for Nursing Students (CINS), Problem-Solving Inventory (PSI), comprehensive learning ability, scientific research ability, and proficiency in the theoretical knowledge and practical skills of IV infusion therapy. Nursing quality, the incidence of IV infusion therapy complications and nurse satisfaction with different teaching models were also measured. Results: The scientific research ability, PSI scores, CINS scores, and comprehensive learning ability of the experimental group were better than those of the control group (P 0.05), and their assessment results of practical skills, nursing quality of IV infusion therapy during training, and satisfaction with teaching models were all better than those of the control group with statistical significance (P < 0.05). The incidence of IV infusion therapy complications in the experimental group was lower than that in the control group, indicating statistical significance (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Teaching models based on patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation enable nursing students to learn more directly and practice at any time and in any place, and can improve their proficiency in IV infusion theoretical knowledge and skills (e.g. PICC catheterization), core competencies, problem-solving ability, comprehensive learning ability, scientific research ability and the ability to deal with complicated cases. Also, it helps provide high-quality nursing education, improve the nursing quality of IV therapy, reduce the incidence of related complications, and ensure the safety of patients with IV therapy.
基金supported by the Science Fund for the Gansu Provincial Natural Science Foundation Project(22JR5RA339).
文摘Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and temporal change characteristics of ecological network and analyzing the integrated relationship between LUCC and ecological security are crucial for ensuring regional ecological security.Gansu is one of the provinces with fragile ecological environment in China,and rapid changes in land use patterns in recent decades have threatened ecological security.Therefore,taking Gansu Province as the study area,this study simulated its land use pattern in 2050 using patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model based on the LUCC trend from 2000 to 2020 and integrated the LUCC into morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)to identify ecological sources and extract the ecological corridors to construct ecological network using circuit theory.The results revealed that,according to the prediction results in 2050,the areas of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water body,construction land,and unused land would be 63,447.52,39,510.80,148,115.18,4605.21,8368.89,and 161,752.40 km^(2),respectively.The number of ecological sources in Gansu Province would increase to 80,with a total area of 99,927.18 km^(2).The number of ecological corridors would increase to 191,with an estimated total length of 6120.66 km.Both ecological sources and ecological corridors showed a sparse distribution in the northwest and dense distribution in the southeast of the province at the spatial scale.The number of ecological pinch points would reach 312 and the total area would expect to increase to 842.84 km^(2),with the most pronounced increase in the Longdong region.Compared with 2020,the number and area of ecological barriers in 2050 would decrease significantly by 63 and 370.71 km^(2),respectively.In general,based on the prediction results,the connectivity of ecological network of Gansu Province would increase in 2050.To achieve the predicted ecological network in 2050,emphasis should be placed on the protection of cultivated land and ecological land,the establishment of ecological sources in desert areas,the reinforcement of the protection for existing ecological sources,and the construction of ecological corridors to enhance the stability of ecological network.This study provides valuable theoretical support and references for the future construction of ecological networks and regional land resource management decision-making.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2016YFA0601901)Basic Scientific Research of Henan Academy of Sciences (240601083)Joint Fund of Henan Province Science and Technology Research and Development Program (225200810047)。
文摘The Erenhot-Huailai zone, as an important dust emission source area in northern China, affects the air quality of Beijing City, Tianjin City, and Hebei Province and human activities in this zone have a profound impact on surface dust emission. In order to explore the main source areas of surface dust emission and quantify the impacts of human activities on surface dust emission, we investigated the surface dust emission of different land types on the Erenhot-Huailai zone by model simulation, field observation, and comparative analysis. The results showed that the average annual inhalable atmospheric particles(PM_(10)) dust emission fluxes in arid grassland, Hunshandake Sandy Land, semi-arid grassland,semi-arid agro-pastoral area, dry sub-humid agro-pastoral area, and semi-humid agro-pastoral area were 4.41, 0.71, 3.64, 1.94, 0.24, and 0.14 t/hm^(2), respectively, and dust emission in these lands occurred mainly from April to May. Due to the influence of human activities on surface dust emission, dust emission fluxes from different land types were 1.66–4.41 times greater than those of their background areas, and dust emission fluxes from the main dust source areas were 1.66–3.89 times greater than those of their background areas. According to calculation, the amount of PM_(10) dust emission influenced by human disturbance accounted for up to 58.00% of the total dust emission in the study area. In addition, the comparative analysis of model simulation and field observation results showed that the simulated and observed dust emission fluxes were relatively close to each other, with differences ranging from 0.01 to 0.21 t/hm^(2) in different months, which indicated that the community land model version 4.5(CLM4.5) had a high accuracy. In conclusion, model simulation results have important reference significance for identifying dust source areas and quantifying the contribution of human activities to surface dust emission.
基金Under the auspices of Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.LY19C160007)。
文摘In recent years,rapid urbanization has had a profound impact on landscape stability.As a typical example of China's rapid urbanization,Hangzhou has also experienced significant landscape changes,which have profoundly affected its ecological stability.Taking Hangzhou as an example,this study integrates land use change data from 1980 to 2020,combines dynamic simulation and ecological modeling techniques,and carries out a comprehensive analysis of historical trends and future predictions,to provide valuable insights into the complex interactions between urban expansion and landscape stability.The results indicate that:1)between 1980 and2020,Hangzhou experienced a significant increase in construction land at the expense of arable land,leading to a gradual decline in landscape stability,though the downward trend has slowed in recent years.2)The spatial distribution of landscape stability shows clear aggregation patterns,with lower stability concentrated in economically active flatlands and higher stability in the mountainous western regions.3)By 2040,further urban expansion is predicted to occur alongside increased landscape integration,reflecting the positive effects of ecological protection strategies.This study highlights the universal challenges of balancing economic growth with ecological stability in rapidly urbanizing regions.The combination of advanced simulation models and spatiotemporal analysis demonstrates a replicable framework for assessing urban expansion's ecological impacts.These findings underscore the importance of tailoring urban planning and ecological policies to address regional disparities,providing valuable insights for sustainable urban development and landscape management globally.
文摘Modeling and simulation(M&S)play a critical role in both engineering and basic research processes.Computer-based models have existed since the 1950s,and those early models have given way to the more complex computational and physics-based simula-tions used today.As such,a great deal of research has been done to establish what level of trust should be given to simulation outputs and how to verify and validate the mod-els used in these simulations.This paper presents an overview of the theoretical work done to date defining formal definitions for,and methods of,verification and validation(V&V)of computer models.Simulation models are broken down into three broad cate-gories:analytical and simulation models,computational and physics-based models,and simulations of autonomous systems,and the unique theories and methods developed to address V&V of these models are presented.This paper also presents the current prob-lems in the theoretical field of V&V for models as simulations move from single system models and simulations to more complex simulation tools.In particular,this paper high-lights the lack of agreed-upon methods for V&V of simulations of autonomous systems,such as an autonomous unmanned vehicles,and proposes some next steps needed to address this problem.
文摘With the development of science and technology, great changes have taken place in medical education, making it increasingly complicated and diversified. For medical students who have just finished basic medicine courses and are preparing for their hospital internships, it is difficult to gain experience performing direct physical examinations on patients. Currently, residents＇ clinical skills are assessed very strictly; simply taking notes and reciting facts will not suffice. Because considerable attention is being paid to medical students＂ clinical skills on a national level,
基金This work used the Extreme Science and Engineering Discovery Environment(XSEDE)which is supported by National Science Foundation grant number OCI-1053575+1 种基金The first author expresses the appreciation of funds received from the National Science Foundation(Award#CNS-1028177)support from San Diego State University。
文摘Geospatial simulation models can help us understand the dynamic aspects of Digital Earth.To implement high-performance simulation models for complex geospatial problems,grid computing and cloud computing are two promising computational frameworks.This research compares the benefits and drawbacks of both in Web-based frameworks by testing a parallel Geographic Information System(GIS)simulation model(Schelling’s residential segregation model).The parallel GIS simulation model was tested on XSEDE(a representative grid computing platform)and Amazon EC2(a representative cloud computing platform).The test results demonstrate that cloud computing platforms can provide almost the same parallel computing capability as high-end grid computing frameworks.However,cloud computing resources are more accessible to individual scientists,easier to request and set up,and have more scalable software architecture for on-demand and dedicated Web services.These advantages may attract more geospatial scientists to utilize cloud computing for the development of Digital Earth simulation models in the future.
基金This work was in part supported by the Major Project from Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission(No.Z181100003218007)the National Science and Technology Major Project(No.2018ZX03001031)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61622101 and 61571020)。
文摘For the practical simulation and performance evaluation of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)Ricean fading channels,it is desirable to develop accurate UAV-MIMO channel simulation models for more realistic scenarios of non-isotropic scattering.In this study,using a twocylinder reference model to describe the distribution of scatterers,we propose new deterministic and stochastic simulation models.Analytical and numerical results indicate that both simulation models provide good approximations to the desired statistical properties of the reference model,and the stochastic simulation model results in a better performance under comparable computational complexity.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Gigawatt Hour Level Lithiumion Battery Energy Storage System Technology,NO.2021YFB2400100Integrated and Intelligent Management and Demonstration Application of Gigawatt Hour Level energy storage station,NO.2021YFB2400105).
文摘As the proportion of renewable energy infiltrating the power grid increases,suppressing its randomness and volatility,reducing its impact on the safe operation of the power grid,and improving the level of new energy consumption are increasingly important.For these purposes,energy storage stations(ESS)are receiving increasing attention.This article discusses the structure,working principle,and control methods of grid-following and grid-forming energy-storage converters,which are currently commonly used.A simulation analysis was conducted to investigate their dynamic response characteristics.The advantages and disadvantages of two types of energy storage power stations are discussed,and a configuration strategy for hybrid ESS is proposed.This paper presents research on and a simulation analysis of grid-forming and grid-following hybrid energy storage systems considering two types of energy storage according to different capacity scenarios.Finally,a comparative analysis between the systems is presented.A simulation model was established using PSD-BPA(Power System Department-Bonneville Power Administration)to analyze the impact of the capacity ratio of grid-following and grid-forming ESS on their dynamic response characteristics in a hybrid ESS.In addition,a development direction for future ESSs is indicated.
基金part of the research program “Nautical Traffic Model Based Design and Assessment of Safe and Efficient Ports and Waterways” sponsored by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO)
文摘Ports play an increasingly important role in the freight transportation chain due to containerization. High vessel flows and higher densities increase the relevance of the non- terminal related processes. Several simulation models have been developed in the recent decades with different goals, but their abilities to represent realistic vessel traffic in ports differ. In this paper, we identify the main navigational processes and operations related to the port nautical infrastructure, and review and assess the current port simulation models. This survey represents an exhaustive review of the state-of-the-art of simulation models for port assessment purposes focussing on safety and capacity. The model assessment focuses on the identification of the relevant criteria to represent vessel navigation, based on which processes are covered by each model and how they have been considered in each model. The assessment covers the nautical infrastructure representation and the naviga- tional behaviour. The outcome of this review will be used for the development of a simulation based port assessment methodology. Future port simulation models should include the suitable criteria for a more realistic traffic representation that allows a proper safety and capacity port analysis and assessment.
基金supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant number 2022YFF0711604)the General Project of the NSF of China(Grant number 42071363).
文摘Geographic simulation models can be used to explore and better understand the geographical environment. Recent advances in geographic and socio-environmental research have led to a dramatic increase in the number of models used for this purpose. Some model repositories provide opportunities for users to explore and apply models,but few provide a general evaluation method for assessing the applicability and recognition of models. In this study,an academic impact evaluation method for models is proposed. Five indices are designed based on their pertinence. The analytical hierarchy process is used to calculate the index weights,and the academic impacts of models are quantified with the weighted sum method. The time range is controlled to evaluate the life-term and annual academic impacts of the models. Some models that met the evaluation criteria from different domains are then evaluated. The results show that the academic impact of a model can be quantified with the proposed method,and the major research areas that models impact are identified.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42176221,41901133)Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA19060205)Seed project of Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.YIC-E3518907)。
文摘Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.
