The bounded parameter estimation problem and its solution lead to moie meaningful results. Its superior performance is due to the fact that the new method guarantees that the effect of the uncertainties will never be ...The bounded parameter estimation problem and its solution lead to moie meaningful results. Its superior performance is due to the fact that the new method guarantees that the effect of the uncertainties will never be unnecessarily overestimated.We then consider how to update and downdate the bounded parameter estimation problem. When updating and downdating of SVD are used to the new problem, special technologies are taken to avoid forming U and V explicitly, then increase the algorithm performance. Because of the link between the bounded parameter estimation and Tikhonov regularization procedure, we point out that our algorithms can also be used to modify regularization problem.展开更多
Based on the data recorded by the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and using new methods, the short-term variations of the ambient stress field of Yunnan and its adjacent areas are monitored in real time. Wi...Based on the data recorded by the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and using new methods, the short-term variations of the ambient stress field of Yunnan and its adjacent areas are monitored in real time. With the in-depth analyses of the spatial-temporal evolution of the ambient stress field prior to the 2004, Shuangbai M_S5.0 earthquake, concrete procedures for predicting the three elements of the earthquake are presented.展开更多
Joint parameter identification is a key problem in the modeling of complex structures. The behavior of joint may be random due to the random properties of preload and joint geometries, contact surface and its finish, ...Joint parameter identification is a key problem in the modeling of complex structures. The behavior of joint may be random due to the random properties of preload and joint geometries, contact surface and its finish, etc. A method is presented to simulate the joint parameters as probabilistic variables. In this method the response surface based model updating method and probabilistic approaches are employed to identify the parameters. The study implies that joint parameters of some structures have normal or nearly normal distributions, and a linear FE model with probabilistic variables could illustrate dynamic characteristics of joints.展开更多
Nuclear power plants(NPP)contain plenty of valve piping systems(VPS’s)which are categorized into high anti-seismic grades.Tasks such as seismic qualification,health monitoring and damage diagnosis of VPS’s in its de...Nuclear power plants(NPP)contain plenty of valve piping systems(VPS’s)which are categorized into high anti-seismic grades.Tasks such as seismic qualification,health monitoring and damage diagnosis of VPS’s in its design and operation processes all depend on finite element method.However,in engineering practice,there is always deviations between the theoretical and the measured responses due to the inaccurate value of the structural parameters in the model.The structure parameters identification of VPS within NPP is still an unexplored domain to a large extent.In this paper,the initial 2D-finite element model(FEM)for VPS with a DN80 gate valve was updated by utilizing seismic response.The objective function used in the model updating procedure is the vibration control equation error of the VPS.The experimental results show that the updated 2D-FEM can accurately predict the original dynamic characteristic of the VPS.It was also found the Rayleigh damping coefficients corresponding to the VPS vary slightly with the change in seismic excitation amplitude.The research displayed the complete procedure of updating the complex structured initial FEM by utilizing seismic response,and the results show that the parameters can be accurately identified even if the seismic response used for updating merely contained the fundamental frequency information of the structure.展开更多
A procedure for identifying the dynamic parameter of offshore platform is presented. The present procedure consists of two key features. First uses random decrement (RD) technology to extract free vibration signal in ...A procedure for identifying the dynamic parameter of offshore platform is presented. The present procedure consists of two key features. First uses random decrement (RD) technology to extract free vibration signal in strong noise environment in which it may not white noise. Second technology which called autoregressive moving average (ARMA) was used to model the data treated by the random decrement method. In order to get rid of the color noise in the output signal response from the offshore platform an imaginary system is added in RD system and make the course of extracting performed under the state of color input by choosing the breakover condition and lead time. For eliminating multi_values of parameters identified, an updating moving average method is used. The dynamic parameters of structure under arbitrary input are identified. Example of the method as applied to a scale_model offshore platform was used to evaluate the technology of efficiency and the value of on_line.展开更多
In an information system, applications often make use of services that they access using the parameters described in their configuration files. Various applications then use different codes to denote the same paramete...In an information system, applications often make use of services that they access using the parameters described in their configuration files. Various applications then use different codes to denote the same parameters. When access parameters of a service are modified, it is necessary to update them in every configuration file using them. These changes are necessary, for example because of security policies involving regular changes of passwords, or departure of some system administrators. The database password could be changed for example. When system administrators can not immediately identify all services affected by a change or when they feel they don’t have the skills to edit these files, these parameters remain unchanged, creating critical security flaws. This was observed in more than 80% of the organizations we studied. It then becomes necessary to ensure automatic synchronization of all affected files when changing certain settings. Conventional synchronization solutions are difficult to apply when the relevant applications have already been developed by third parties. In this paper, we propose and implement a solution to automatically update all configuration files affected by a change, respecting their structure and codification. It combines a parameters database, a mapping between the configuration files parameters codes and those of the database, and templates for the generation of files. It achieves the objective for all non-encrypted configuration files.展开更多
On 6^th December, 2016, an earthquake with M 6.5 occurred at the tectonic plate boundary, southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia (Latitude: 0.5897°S, Longitude: 101.3431°E). In this case, ionospheric critical frequ...On 6^th December, 2016, an earthquake with M 6.5 occurred at the tectonic plate boundary, southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia (Latitude: 0.5897°S, Longitude: 101.3431°E). In this case, ionospheric critical frequency of F2 layer (foF2) variations and meteorological parameters, viz., air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind speed variations were investigated so as to detect any anomalies. Data are obtained from different websites freely available for researchers. In the absence of real ionosonde foF2 data, IRI 2016 model data were used. For each parameter, anomaly window were defined when values fell beyond ± 6 ℃,< 70 %,± 4 mb and ± 3.5 km h-1 from the event day value and one third of total foF2 values broke the limits of the upper and lower bounds. Certain random anomalies in temperature, relative humidity, pressure, wind speed and foF2 frequencies were observed different days prior to occurrence of the quake but each parameter showed anomalies 12 days before the occurrence. Also, geomagnetic tranquility was justified through Kp and Dst indices. This study reveals that continuous monitoring of atmospheric meteorological parameters and regular ionospheric foF2 observations might help us to predict an earthquake about a week prior to the occurrence.展开更多
Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currentl...Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.展开更多
To overcome the large time-delay in measuring the hardness of mixed rubber, rheological parameters were used to predict the hardness. A novel Q-based model updating strategy was proposed as a universal platform to tra...To overcome the large time-delay in measuring the hardness of mixed rubber, rheological parameters were used to predict the hardness. A novel Q-based model updating strategy was proposed as a universal platform to track time-varying properties. Using a few selected support samples to update the model, the strategy could dramat- ically save the storage cost and overcome the adverse influence of low signal-to-noise ratio samples. Moreover, it could be applied to any statistical process monitoring system without drastic changes to them, which is practical for industrial practices. As examples, the Q-based strategy was integrated with three popular algorithms （partial least squares （PIE）, recursive PIE （RPLS）, and kernel PIE （KPIE）） to form novel regression ones, QPLS, QRPIE and QKPLS, respectively. The applications for predicting mixed rubber hardness on a large-scale tire plant in east China prove the theoretical considerations.展开更多
文摘The bounded parameter estimation problem and its solution lead to moie meaningful results. Its superior performance is due to the fact that the new method guarantees that the effect of the uncertainties will never be unnecessarily overestimated.We then consider how to update and downdate the bounded parameter estimation problem. When updating and downdating of SVD are used to the new problem, special technologies are taken to avoid forming U and V explicitly, then increase the algorithm performance. Because of the link between the bounded parameter estimation and Tikhonov regularization procedure, we point out that our algorithms can also be used to modify regularization problem.
基金the Key Science andTechnology R&D Project of the 10th "Five-Year Plan" of Yunnan Province , entitled "Study of Med- and Short-term Prediction Techniques for Strong Earthquakein Yunnan"(2001NG46) andthe construction of Earthquake Monitoring andPrevention Center of West Yunnan (YN150105T037-045)
文摘Based on the data recorded by the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and using new methods, the short-term variations of the ambient stress field of Yunnan and its adjacent areas are monitored in real time. With the in-depth analyses of the spatial-temporal evolution of the ambient stress field prior to the 2004, Shuangbai M_S5.0 earthquake, concrete procedures for predicting the three elements of the earthquake are presented.
文摘Joint parameter identification is a key problem in the modeling of complex structures. The behavior of joint may be random due to the random properties of preload and joint geometries, contact surface and its finish, etc. A method is presented to simulate the joint parameters as probabilistic variables. In this method the response surface based model updating method and probabilistic approaches are employed to identify the parameters. The study implies that joint parameters of some structures have normal or nearly normal distributions, and a linear FE model with probabilistic variables could illustrate dynamic characteristics of joints.
文摘Nuclear power plants(NPP)contain plenty of valve piping systems(VPS’s)which are categorized into high anti-seismic grades.Tasks such as seismic qualification,health monitoring and damage diagnosis of VPS’s in its design and operation processes all depend on finite element method.However,in engineering practice,there is always deviations between the theoretical and the measured responses due to the inaccurate value of the structural parameters in the model.The structure parameters identification of VPS within NPP is still an unexplored domain to a large extent.In this paper,the initial 2D-finite element model(FEM)for VPS with a DN80 gate valve was updated by utilizing seismic response.The objective function used in the model updating procedure is the vibration control equation error of the VPS.The experimental results show that the updated 2D-FEM can accurately predict the original dynamic characteristic of the VPS.It was also found the Rayleigh damping coefficients corresponding to the VPS vary slightly with the change in seismic excitation amplitude.The research displayed the complete procedure of updating the complex structured initial FEM by utilizing seismic response,and the results show that the parameters can be accurately identified even if the seismic response used for updating merely contained the fundamental frequency information of the structure.
文摘A procedure for identifying the dynamic parameter of offshore platform is presented. The present procedure consists of two key features. First uses random decrement (RD) technology to extract free vibration signal in strong noise environment in which it may not white noise. Second technology which called autoregressive moving average (ARMA) was used to model the data treated by the random decrement method. In order to get rid of the color noise in the output signal response from the offshore platform an imaginary system is added in RD system and make the course of extracting performed under the state of color input by choosing the breakover condition and lead time. For eliminating multi_values of parameters identified, an updating moving average method is used. The dynamic parameters of structure under arbitrary input are identified. Example of the method as applied to a scale_model offshore platform was used to evaluate the technology of efficiency and the value of on_line.
文摘In an information system, applications often make use of services that they access using the parameters described in their configuration files. Various applications then use different codes to denote the same parameters. When access parameters of a service are modified, it is necessary to update them in every configuration file using them. These changes are necessary, for example because of security policies involving regular changes of passwords, or departure of some system administrators. The database password could be changed for example. When system administrators can not immediately identify all services affected by a change or when they feel they don’t have the skills to edit these files, these parameters remain unchanged, creating critical security flaws. This was observed in more than 80% of the organizations we studied. It then becomes necessary to ensure automatic synchronization of all affected files when changing certain settings. Conventional synchronization solutions are difficult to apply when the relevant applications have already been developed by third parties. In this paper, we propose and implement a solution to automatically update all configuration files affected by a change, respecting their structure and codification. It combines a parameters database, a mapping between the configuration files parameters codes and those of the database, and templates for the generation of files. It achieves the objective for all non-encrypted configuration files.
文摘On 6^th December, 2016, an earthquake with M 6.5 occurred at the tectonic plate boundary, southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia (Latitude: 0.5897°S, Longitude: 101.3431°E). In this case, ionospheric critical frequency of F2 layer (foF2) variations and meteorological parameters, viz., air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind speed variations were investigated so as to detect any anomalies. Data are obtained from different websites freely available for researchers. In the absence of real ionosonde foF2 data, IRI 2016 model data were used. For each parameter, anomaly window were defined when values fell beyond ± 6 ℃,< 70 %,± 4 mb and ± 3.5 km h-1 from the event day value and one third of total foF2 values broke the limits of the upper and lower bounds. Certain random anomalies in temperature, relative humidity, pressure, wind speed and foF2 frequencies were observed different days prior to occurrence of the quake but each parameter showed anomalies 12 days before the occurrence. Also, geomagnetic tranquility was justified through Kp and Dst indices. This study reveals that continuous monitoring of atmospheric meteorological parameters and regular ionospheric foF2 observations might help us to predict an earthquake about a week prior to the occurrence.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,China(No.42004016)HuBei Natural Science Fund,China(No.2020CFB329)+1 种基金HuNan Natural Science Fund,China(No.2023JJ60559,2023JJ60560)the State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth’s Dynamics self-deployment project,China(No.S21L6101)。
文摘Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.
文摘To overcome the large time-delay in measuring the hardness of mixed rubber, rheological parameters were used to predict the hardness. A novel Q-based model updating strategy was proposed as a universal platform to track time-varying properties. Using a few selected support samples to update the model, the strategy could dramat- ically save the storage cost and overcome the adverse influence of low signal-to-noise ratio samples. Moreover, it could be applied to any statistical process monitoring system without drastic changes to them, which is practical for industrial practices. As examples, the Q-based strategy was integrated with three popular algorithms （partial least squares （PIE）, recursive PIE （RPLS）, and kernel PIE （KPIE）） to form novel regression ones, QPLS, QRPIE and QKPLS, respectively. The applications for predicting mixed rubber hardness on a large-scale tire plant in east China prove the theoretical considerations.
