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预算管理视角下市场动态预测——基于Nowcasting大数据模型研究
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作者 王祎 陈海勇 +2 位作者 陈雪颖 戴小云 刘峰 《预算管理》 2026年第1期25-33,共9页
本文基于Nowcasting模型构建了市场动态预测与预算管理的协同分析框架,通过整合经济发展水平、人口结构、收入分布等财务敏感性指标,结合Python编程实现动态因子分析与预算执行评价的双维验证。研究发现,经济因素对市场波动的动态预测... 本文基于Nowcasting模型构建了市场动态预测与预算管理的协同分析框架,通过整合经济发展水平、人口结构、收入分布等财务敏感性指标,结合Python编程实现动态因子分析与预算执行评价的双维验证。研究发现,经济因素对市场波动的动态预测具有显著影响,模型预测准确性随数据积累持续提升,可为滚动预算编制提供实时数据支持。本文揭示了预测与预算的联动机制,通过高频数据捕捉市场趋势转折点使预算偏差显著降低,同时模型输出的动态预测区间可自动生成多情景预算方案,适配不同政策调控强度,并基于品类级预测结果建立的库存预算动态调整模型,提升周转效率。本文建议,进一步融合供应链金融数据流和零售终端实时交易信息,构建“市场—政策—预算”闭环管理系统,为特殊监管行业的预算弹性调整、税收筹划及现金流管理提供决策支持,助力企业在财政约束条件下实现资源精准配置与战略预算管控。 展开更多
关键词 预算管理 市场动态预测 nowcasting大数据模型
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XAFS platform at NFPS BL17B at SSRF:extending structural characterization from long-range to short-range orders 被引量:1
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作者 Lan-Lu Lu Wen-Ming Qin +13 位作者 Luo-Zhen Jiang Yang Liu Kang-Wen Bao Chun-Yu Li Zhong-Jie Zhu Yi-Jun Gu Jian-Chao Tang Qing-Jie Xiao Ting-Ting Wu Yu-Pu Zhang Wei-Zhe Zhang Shu-Yu Zhou Ya-Yun Yang Zheng Jiang 《Nuclear Science and Techniques》 2025年第11期95-108,共14页
The synchrotron radiation beamline BL17B of the National Facility for Protein Science(NFPS)in Shanghai,situated at the Shanghai Synchrotron Radiation Facility(SSRF),was originally designed for diffraction experiments ... The synchrotron radiation beamline BL17B of the National Facility for Protein Science(NFPS)in Shanghai,situated at the Shanghai Synchrotron Radiation Facility(SSRF),was originally designed for diffraction experiments and accommodates techniques including single-crystal diffraction,powder diffraction,and grazing-incidence wide-angle X-ray scattering(GIWAXS)to enable the characterization of long-range ordered atomic structures.The academic community associated with BL17B engages in research domains encompassing biology,environment,energy,and materials,and a pronounced demand for characterizing short-range ordered structures exists.To address these requirements,BL17B established an advanced X-ray absorption fine structure(XAFS)experimental platform that enabled it to address a wide range of systems,from crystalline to amorphous and from long-range order to short-range order.The XAFS platform allows simultaneous XAFS data acquisition for both the transmission and fluorescence modes within an energy range of 5-23 keV,encompassing the K-edges of titanium to ruthenium and the L3-edges of cesium to bismuth.The platform exemplifies high levels of automation achieved through automated sample assessment and data collection based on large-capacity sample wheels that facilitate remote sample loading.When integrated with a highly integrated control system that simplifies experimental preparation and data collection,the XAFS platform significantly bolsters experimental efficiency and enhances user experience.Notably,the platform boasts an impressively low extended X-ray absorption fine structure(EXAFS)detection limit of 0.04 wt%for dilute copper phthalocyanine(CuPc)samples and an even more remarkable X-ray absorption near edge structure(XANES)detection threshold of 0.01 wt%.These results demonstrate the methodology?s reliability in low-concentration sample analysis,confirming its capability to generate high-quality XAFS data. 展开更多
关键词 XAFS Synchrotron radiation short-range order
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Earthquake Nowcasting方法在云南地区的应用研究
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作者 张欣乐 缪淼 +2 位作者 韩鹏 王蕤 常莹 《地球物理学报》 北大核心 2025年第8期3149-3161,共13页
在过去的10年中,基于统计模型的Nowcasting方法被引入地震危险性评估工作中,形成了一种新的评价方法:Earthquake Nowcasting.该方法计算简便,可以快速给出对应时间点的地震危险性,目前已在全世界多个地震频发地区开展应用.为了探索该方... 在过去的10年中,基于统计模型的Nowcasting方法被引入地震危险性评估工作中,形成了一种新的评价方法:Earthquake Nowcasting.该方法计算简便,可以快速给出对应时间点的地震危险性,目前已在全世界多个地震频发地区开展应用.为了探索该方法在中国地震科学实验场的适用性,本文将Earthquake Nowcasting应用于云南地区,基于高频的“小地震”数目,定义“自然周期”并构建地震复发模型,估算自上一次破坏性地震发生至今该地区的应力累积水平,实现大地震发震风险的定量评估.结果表明:(1)2021漾濞M_(S)6.4地震前,震中所在区域有较高的大地震风险;(2)云南省西北部、东北部、南部以及中部的城市和地区存在较高的破坏性地震可能性,后续地震事件与预测结果具有较好一致性;(3)震级相对较高的前震可能会影响主震的危险性评价.因此,Earthquake Nowcasting具有一定的使用价值,可为云南地区的地震危险性评价工作提供参考,但因Earthquake Nowcasting方法未考虑地震的丛集性特征,在实际使用时还必须结合前震、余震的发震规律才能给出更科学、准确的地震危险性评价. 展开更多
关键词 Earthquake nowcasting 云南省 自然周期 Earthquake potential score
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Nowcasting汉译名在经济学领域的统一——基于“约定俗成”原则的量化分析
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作者 郭红兵 赵建群 林大庞 《中国科技术语》 2025年第2期45-53,共9页
Nowcasting这一术语起源于气象学领域,如今在经济学领域应用越来越广泛。然而根据中国知网(CNKI)的数据,经济学文献中nowcasting的汉语译名至少有13种,另外还有一种“不翻译”,这严重违反了“科技名词定名原则”^((1))的“单义性”,不... Nowcasting这一术语起源于气象学领域,如今在经济学领域应用越来越广泛。然而根据中国知网(CNKI)的数据,经济学文献中nowcasting的汉语译名至少有13种,另外还有一种“不翻译”,这严重违反了“科技名词定名原则”^((1))的“单义性”,不利于相关文献搜索、学术交流、研究和应用。鉴于此,文章基于来自CNKI和IDEAS^((2))数据,依据“约定俗成”原则,采用通用度和流通度作为量化指标,对现有经济学文献中nowcasting的汉译进行分析和比较。结果表明,“现时预测”是nowcasting在经济学领域的最佳译名。文章力图促进nowcasting汉译名的规范和统一。 展开更多
关键词 nowcasting 经济学 汉译名 量化分析
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Enhanced Nowcasting Through a Novel Radar Echo Extrapolation Algorithm:Integrating Recurrent Convolutional Neural Networks with Optical Flow Methods
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作者 Xugang LI Zhiyuan SHU +4 位作者 Shaoyu HOU Feng LV Wuyi WANG Rong MAI Haipeng ZHU 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 2025年第3期51-56,共6页
This study proposes a novel radar echo extrapolation algorithm,OF-ConvGRU,which integrates Optical Flow(OF)and Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit(ConvGRU)methods for improved nowcasting.Using the Standardized Radar Da... This study proposes a novel radar echo extrapolation algorithm,OF-ConvGRU,which integrates Optical Flow(OF)and Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit(ConvGRU)methods for improved nowcasting.Using the Standardized Radar Dataset of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the performance of OF-ConvGRU was evaluated against OF and ConvGRU methods.Threat Score(TS)and Bias Score(BIAS)were employed to assess extrapolation accuracy across various echo intensities(20-50 dBz)and weather phenomena.Results demonstrate that OF-ConvGRU significantly enhances prediction accuracy for moderate-intensity echoes(30-40 dBz),effectively combining OF s precise motion estimation with ConvGRU s nonlinear learning capabilities.However,challenges persist in low-intensity(20 dBz)and high-intensity(50 dBz)echo predictions.The study reveals distinct advantages of each method in specific contexts,highlighting the importance of multi-method approaches in operational nowcasting.OF-ConvGRU shows promise in balancing short-term accuracy with long-term stability,particularly for complex weather systems. 展开更多
关键词 Radar echo extrapolation nowcasting Optical flow Deep learning
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Sensitivity of short-range order prediction to machine learning potential formalisms:A case study on NbMoTaW high-entropy alloy
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作者 Dingyi Jin Guo Wei Haidong Wang 《Chinese Physics B》 2025年第9期364-372,共9页
Chemical short-range order(SRO),a phenomenon at the atomic scale resulting from inhomogeneities in the local chemical environment,is usually studied using machine learning force field-based molecular dynamics simulati... Chemical short-range order(SRO),a phenomenon at the atomic scale resulting from inhomogeneities in the local chemical environment,is usually studied using machine learning force field-based molecular dynamics simulations due to the limitations of experimental methods.To promote the reliable application of machine potentials in high-entropy alloy simulations,first,this work uses NEP models trained on two different datasets to predict the SRO coefficients of NbMoTaW.The results show that within the same machine learning framework,there are significant differences in the prediction of SRO coefficients for the Nb-Nb atomic pair.Subsequently,this work predicts the SRO coefficients of NbMoTaW using the NEP model and the SNAP model,both of which are trained on the same dataset.The results reveal significant discrepancies in SRO predictions for like-element pairs(e.g.,Nb-Nb and W-W)between the two potentials,despite the identical training data.The findings of this study indicate that discrepancies in the prediction results of SRO coefficients can arise from either the same machine learning framework trained on different datasets or different learning frameworks trained on the same dataset.This reflects possible incompleteness in the current training set's coverage of local chemical environments at the atomic scale.Future research should establish unified evaluation standards to assess the capability of training sets to accurately describe complex atomic-scale behaviors such as SRO. 展开更多
关键词 multi-principal element alloys short-range order machine-learning potential
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A hierarchical simulation framework incorporating full-link physical response for short-range infrared detection
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作者 Mingze Gao Lixin Xu +4 位作者 Shiyuan Hu Xiaolong Shi Jiaming Gao Yanjiang Wu Huimin Chen 《Defence Technology(防务技术)》 2025年第8期351-363,共13页
Missile-borne short-range infrared detection(SIRD)technology is commonly used in military ground target detection.In complex battlefield environments,achieving precise strike on ground target is a challenging task.How... Missile-borne short-range infrared detection(SIRD)technology is commonly used in military ground target detection.In complex battlefield environments,achieving precise strike on ground target is a challenging task.However,real battlefield data is limited,and equivalent experiments are costly.Currently,there is a lack of comprehensive physical modeling and numerical simulation methods for SIRD.To this end,this study proposes a SIRD simulation framework incorporating full-link physical response,which is integrated through the radiative transfer layer,the sensor response layer,and the model-driven layer.In the radiative transfer layer,a coupled dynamic detection model is established to describe the external optical channel response of the SIRD system by combining the infrared radiation model and the geometric measurement model.In the sensor response layer,considering photoelectric conversion and signal processing,the internal signal response model of the SIRD system is established by a hybrid mode of parametric modeling and analog circuit analysis.In the model-driven layer,a cosimulation application based on a three-dimensional virtual environment is proposed to drive the full-link physical model,and a parallel ray tracing method is employed for real-time synchronous simulation.The proposed simulation framework can provide pixel-level signal output and is verified by the measured data.The evaluation results of the root mean square error(RMSE)and the Pearson correlation coefficient(PCC)show that the simulated data and the measured data achieve good consistency,and the evaluation results of the waveform eigenvalues indicate that the simulated signals exhibit low errors compared to the measured signals.The proposed simulation framework has the potential to acquire large sample datasets of SIRD under various complex battlefield environments and can provide an effective data source for SIRD application research. 展开更多
关键词 short-range infrared detection Full-link physical response Signal level simulation
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Enhancing the mechanical properties of TiZr-based multi-principal element alloys via leveraging multiple short-range orders:An atomic-scale study
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作者 Ning Yang Linggang Zhu +2 位作者 Hanyu Liu Jian Zhou Zhimei Sun 《Journal of Materials Science & Technology》 2025年第24期133-141,共9页
Chemical short-range order(SRO)in multi-principal element alloys(MPEAs)and its unprecedented benefits on materials performance have been elucidated in recent experimental observations.Hence,manipulating the fine struc... Chemical short-range order(SRO)in multi-principal element alloys(MPEAs)and its unprecedented benefits on materials performance have been elucidated in recent experimental observations.Hence,manipulating the fine structure of SRO and its interaction with other coexisting SROs or defects becomes increasingly crucial for MPEAs design.Here,using TiZrNb,TiZrVNb,and TiZrV as the model systems,SRO and its interaction with surrounding environment,as well as its effects on mechanical properties are comprehensively explored through density functional theory-based Monte Carlo simulations.We find that both TiZrNb and TiZrVNb exhibit Ti-Zr SRO and Nb-Nb short-range clustering(SRC),whereas in TiZrV,Zr-V SRO occurs in addition to Ti-Zr SRO.SRO largely increases the modulus and the unstable stacking fault energy(USFE).At the electronic scale,SRO is found accompanied with a deeper pseudo-energy gap at Fermi level,and with a covalent bonding character between the metallic atoms.Due to the SRO-oxygen attraction,oxygen centered and Ti/Zr enriched octahedron coined as(O,2Ti,4Zr)-octahedron populates in TiZrNb-O and TiZrV-O.In TiZrVNb-O,there mainly exist two types of octahedral:(O,2Ti,4Zr)and(O,3Ti,3Zr).Quantitatively,forming these(O,Ti,Zr)-octahedra,the modulus and USFE of MPEAs are further increased compared to the individual contribution from SRO or oxygen,but the improvement does not surpass the sum of the increments induced by the two individuals.The present findings deepen the understanding of SROs and their interactions with surrounding environments,pushing forward the effective utilization of SRO in materials design. 展开更多
关键词 Multiple short-range order Mechanical property Oxygen Multi-principal element alloys Monte carlo simulation
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Effect of short-range ordering on crack propagation behavior of high-entropy alloys
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作者 H.Y.Bo H.Y.Song X.Y.Li 《Journal of Materials Science & Technology》 2025年第24期262-275,共14页
The short-range ordering(SRO)structure has been considered as a toughening method to improve the mechanical properties of high-entropy alloys(HEAs).However,the strengthening mechanism of the SRO structures on the HEAs... The short-range ordering(SRO)structure has been considered as a toughening method to improve the mechanical properties of high-entropy alloys(HEAs).However,the strengthening mechanism of the SRO structures on the HEAs still needs to be further revealed.Here,the effect of element distribution,Al content,crack orientation,temperature,and strain rate on the crack propagation behavior of the AlxFeCoCrNi HEAs are investigated using Monte Carlo(MC)/molecular dynamics(MD)simulation methods.Two HEA models are considered,one with five elements randomly distributed in the alloys,i.e.RSS_HEAs,and the other presenting SRO structure in the alloys,namely SRO_HEAs.The results show that Al atoms play a decisive role in the SRO degree of the HEA.The higher the Al content,the greater the SRO degree of the HEA,and the stronger the resistance of the SRO structure to crack propagation in the alloys.The results indicate that the reinforcement effect of the SRO structure in the model with the(111)[110]crack is more significant than that with the(111)[110]crack.The results show that the crack length of the alloys at maximum strain does not monotonically increase with temperature,but rather exhibits a turning point at the temperature of 400 K.When the temperature is below 400 K,the crack length of the alloys increases with the increase of temperature,while above 400 K,the opposite trend appears.In addition,the results indicate that the crack length of the alloys decreases with increasing strain rate under the same strain. 展开更多
关键词 short-range order High-entropy alloys Crack propagation Crack orientation Molecular dynamics simulation
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Nowcasting:原理、应用及启示 被引量:1
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作者 王婷 郇志坚 王钟秀瑜 《金融发展评论》 2020年第1期1-20,共20页
即时预测宏观经济具有重要的现实意义,通过有效利用可获得的信息对宏观经济进行预测,能够为制定公共政策和企业决策提供参考。本文研究Nowcasting模型的原理,该模型从大型、高维、混频、异构的信息集中提取出能够捕获大部分宏观经济动态... 即时预测宏观经济具有重要的现实意义,通过有效利用可获得的信息对宏观经济进行预测,能够为制定公共政策和企业决策提供参考。本文研究Nowcasting模型的原理,该模型从大型、高维、混频、异构的信息集中提取出能够捕获大部分宏观经济动态的"潜在因子"。Nowcasting模型,不仅可以利用实时数据集对季度GDP增长率进行预测,还可以提取指标中的"新闻"对GDP增长率的影响权重,获得每个实时数据对GDP增长率的边际影响值。此外,我们分析纽约联储Nowcasting模型的变量设定、预测和更新等过程,为中国未来开展即时预测工作提供参考。最后,我们结合Nowcasting模型的扩展和中国国情,验证建立中国版Nowcasting模型的可行性。 展开更多
关键词 nowcasting模型 实时数据集 动态因子
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Application of Multi-Scale Tracking Radar Echoes Scheme in Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting 被引量:11
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作者 WANG Gaili WONG Waikin +1 位作者 LIU Liping WANG Hongyan 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第2期448-460,共13页
A new radar echo tracking algorithm known as multi-scale tracking radar echoes by cross-correlation (MTREC) was developed in this study to analyze movements of radar echoes at different spatial scales. Movement of r... A new radar echo tracking algorithm known as multi-scale tracking radar echoes by cross-correlation (MTREC) was developed in this study to analyze movements of radar echoes at different spatial scales. Movement of radar echoes, particularly associated with convective storms, exhibits different characteristics at various spatial scales as a result of complex interactions among meteorological systems leading to the formation of convective storms. For the null echo region, the usual correlation technique produces zero or a very small magnitude of motion vectors. To mitigate these constraints, MTREC uses the tracking radar echoes by correlation (TREC) technique with a large "box" to determine the systematic movement driven by steering wind, and MTREC applies the TREC technique with a small "box" to estimate small-scale internal motion vectors. Eventually, the MTREC vectors are obtained by synthesizing the systematic motion and the small-scale internal motion. Performance of the MTREC technique was compared with TREC technique using case studies: the Khanun typhoon on 11 September 2005 observed by Wenzhou radar and a squall-line system on 23 June 2011 detected by Beijing radar. The results demonstrate that more spatially smoothed and continuous vector fields can be generated by the MTREC technique, which leads to improvements in tracking the entire radar reflectivity pattern. The new multi-scMe tracking scheme was applied to study its impact on the performance of quantitative precipitation nowcasting. The location and intensity of heavy precipitation at a 1-h lead time was more consistent with quantitative precipitation estimates using radar and rain gauges. 展开更多
关键词 multi-scale tracking EXTRAPOLATION nowcasting
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Short-range ordering and its effects on mechanical properties of high-entropy alloys 被引量:14
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作者 Yuan Wu Fei Zhang +9 位作者 Xiaoyuan Yuan Hailong Huang Xiaocan Wen Yihan Wang Mengyuan Zhang Honghui Wu Xiongjun Liu Hui Wang Suihe Jiang Zhaoping Lu 《Journal of Materials Science & Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2021年第3期214-220,共7页
In this letter,we briefly summarize experimental and theoretical findings of fo rmation and characterization of short-range orderings(SROs)as well as their effects on the defo rmation behavior of high-entropy alloys(H... In this letter,we briefly summarize experimental and theoretical findings of fo rmation and characterization of short-range orderings(SROs)as well as their effects on the defo rmation behavior of high-entropy alloys(HEAs).We show that existence of SROs is a common yet key structural feature of HEAs,and tuning the degree of SROs is an effective way for optimizing mechanical properties of HEAs.In additional,the challenges concerning about formation mechanism and characterization of SROs in HEAs are discussed,and future research activities in this regard are also proposed. 展开更多
关键词 High-entropy alloy short-range ordering Mechanical properties
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Methods of Lightning Nowcasting Based on Radar Echo Extrapolation Technology 被引量:2
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作者 Xu Qiangjun 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2016年第5期46-49,共4页
An improved echo extrapolation technology( MOD-COTREC) was introduced firstly,and then two plans for lightning nowcasting based on MOD-COTREC and both isothermal radar reflectivity and MOD-COTREC were proposed based o... An improved echo extrapolation technology( MOD-COTREC) was introduced firstly,and then two plans for lightning nowcasting based on MOD-COTREC and both isothermal radar reflectivity and MOD-COTREC were proposed based on the technology. Afterwards,the two plans for lightning nowcasting were tested by a case respectively. It is concluded that during the process of lightning nowcasting singly based on MOD-COTREC,the appearance and disappearance of lightning are not considered,and only lightning position is predicted when lightning density is constant,so the prediction error is big. The plan for lightning nowcasting based on both isothermal radar reflectivity and MOD-COTREC is still at an experimental stage,and the nowcasting products of cloud-to-ground lightning based on the plan are very different from the actual density and position of cloud-to-ground lightning,so it needs to be improved further. 展开更多
关键词 LIGHTNING ECHO EXTRAPOLATION nowcasting China
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Lightning Nowcasting with an Algorithm of Thunderstorm Tracking Based on Lightning Location Data over the Beijing Area 被引量:3
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作者 Abhay SRIVASTAVA Dongxia LIU +6 位作者 Chen XU Shanfeng YUAN Dongfang WANG Ogunsua BABALOLA Zhuling SUN Zhixiong CHEN Hongbo ZHANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第1期178-188,共11页
A thunderstorm tracking algorithm is proposed to nowcast the possibility of lightning activity over an area of concern by using the total lightning data and neighborhood technique.The lightning radiation sources obser... A thunderstorm tracking algorithm is proposed to nowcast the possibility of lightning activity over an area of concern by using the total lightning data and neighborhood technique.The lightning radiation sources observed from the Beijing Lightning Network(BLNET)were used to obtain information about the thunderstorm cells,which are significantly valuable in real-time.The boundaries of thunderstorm cells were obtained through the neighborhood technique.After smoothing,these boundaries were used to track the movement of thunderstorms and then extrapolated to nowcast the lightning approaching in an area of concern.The algorithm can deliver creditable results prior to a thunderstorm arriving at the area of concern,with accuracies of 63%,80%,and 91%for lead times of 30,15,and 5 minutes,respectively.The real-time observations of total lightning appear to be significant for thunderstorm tracking and lightning nowcasting,as total lightning tracking could help to fill the observational gaps in radar reflectivity due to the attenuation by hills or other obstacles.The lightning data used in the algorithm performs well in tracking the active thunderstorm cells associated with lightning activities. 展开更多
关键词 neighborhood technique lightning nowcasting thunderstorm tracking lightning location data
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Development of typhoon driven wave nowcasting model in Southeast China Sea 被引量:7
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作者 Zheng Jinhai Feng Xiangbo Yan Yixin 《Engineering Sciences》 EI 2011年第1期2-6,共5页
Using optimal interpolation data assimilation of observed wave spectrum around Northeast coast of Taiwan Island, the typhoon driven wave nowcasting model in Southeast China Sea is setup. The SWAN (simulating waves nea... Using optimal interpolation data assimilation of observed wave spectrum around Northeast coast of Taiwan Island, the typhoon driven wave nowcasting model in Southeast China Sea is setup. The SWAN (simulating waves nearshore) model is used to calculate wave field and the input wind field is the QSCAT/NCEP (Quick Scatterometer/National Centers for Environmental Prediction) data. The two-dimensional wavelet transform is applied to analyze the X-band radar image of nearshore wave field and it reveals that the observed wave spectrum has shoaling characteristics in frequency domain. The reverse calculation approach of wave spectrum in deep water is proposed and validated with experimental tests. The two-dimensional digital low-pass filter is used to obtain the initialization wave field. Wave data during Typhoon Sinlaku is used to calibrate the data assimilation parameters and test the reverse calculation approach. Data assimilation corrects the significant wave height and the low frequency spectra energy evidently at Beishuang Station along Fujian Province coast, where the entire assimilation indexes are positive in verification moments. The nowcasting wave field shows that the present model can obtain more accurate wave predictions for coastal and ocean engineering in Southeast China Sea. 展开更多
关键词 typhoon driven wave nowcasting model data assimilation spectrum reverse calculation
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Summary on Applications of Stratiform Clear Air Echo in Nowcasting
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作者 刘小弟 汤达章 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第3期101-106,共6页
It was difficult to probe the clear air echo by the general traditional radar for echo's weak intensity.Therefore,its investigation was less because of the restrictions of probe technique and data.In recent years,... It was difficult to probe the clear air echo by the general traditional radar for echo's weak intensity.Therefore,its investigation was less because of the restrictions of probe technique and data.In recent years,with the probe tools improving,more clear air echoes were probed,and the relative investigations were more and more.However,most investigations stayed in the theory at present,and the relative literatures about its application in the practical forecast work were few.For a new generation of Doppler radars' powers and sensitivities were all high,they were put into service successively in China.People could observe more and more the clear air atmospheric echoes in the daily business.Its Doppler radar velocity provided the important basis for daily short-term predication and had very important indication meaning for the nowcasting of seasons which were spring,summer and fall.It was important to forecast the precipitation,especially the abrupt rainstorm by using the symptom of clear air echo which was probed by the new generation of Doppler radar products.Therefore,the advances on clear air echo research at home and abroad were summarized simply. 展开更多
关键词 Clear air echo Doppler velocity nowcasting China
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Evaluation of the Added Value of Probabilistic Nowcasting Ensemble Forecasts on Regional Ensemble Forecasts 被引量:2
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作者 Lu YANG Cong-Lan CHENG +4 位作者 Yu XIA Min CHEN Ming-Xuan CHEN Han-Bin ZHANG Xiang-Yu HUANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第5期937-951,共15页
Ensemble forecasting systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties in initial conditions and model formulations and they are receiving increased attention from various applications.The Regiona... Ensemble forecasting systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties in initial conditions and model formulations and they are receiving increased attention from various applications.The Regional Ensemble Prediction System(REPS),which has operated at the Beijing Meteorological Service(BMS)since 2017,allows for probabilistic forecasts.However,it still suffers from systematic deficiencies during the first couple of forecast hours.This paper presents an integrated probabilistic nowcasting ensemble prediction system(NEPS)that is constructed by applying a mixed dynamicintegrated method.It essentially combines the uncertainty information(i.e.,ensemble variance)provided by the REPS with the nowcasting method provided by the rapid-refresh deterministic nowcasting prediction system(NPS)that has operated at the Beijing Meteorological Service(BMS)since 2019.The NEPS provides hourly updated analyses and probabilistic forecasts in the nowcasting and short range(0-6 h)with a spatial grid spacing of 500 m.It covers the three meteorological parameters:temperature,wind,and precipitation.The outcome of an evaluation experiment over the deterministic and probabilistic forecasts indicates that the NEPS outperforms the REPS and NPS in terms of surface weather variables.Analysis of two cases demonstrates the superior reliability of the NEPS and suggests that the NEPS gives more details about the spatial intensity and distribution of the meteorological parameters. 展开更多
关键词 integration ensemble nowcasting probabilistic prediction evaluation and verification
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APPLICATION EXPERIMENT OF ASSIMILATING RADAR-RETRIEVED WATER VAPOR IN SHORT-RANGE FORECAST OF RAINFALL IN THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON OVER SOUTH CHINA 被引量:2
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作者 张诚忠 陈子通 +4 位作者 万齐林 林振敏 黄燕燕 戴光丰 丁伟钰 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2016年第4期578-588,共11页
A scheme of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is adopted to improve the quality of NWP initial field for improvement of the accuracy of short-range precipitation prediction. To reveal the impact of the assimila... A scheme of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is adopted to improve the quality of NWP initial field for improvement of the accuracy of short-range precipitation prediction. To reveal the impact of the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor on short-term precipitation forecast, three parallel experiments, cold start, hot start and hot start plus the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor, are designed to simulate the 31 days of May, 2013 with a fine numerical model for South China. Furthermore, a case of heavy rain that occurred from 8-9 May 2013 over the region from the southwest of Guangdong province to Pearl River Delta is analyzed in detail. Results show that the cold start experiment is not conducive to precipitation 12 hours ahead; the hot start experiment is able to reproduce well the first6 hours of precipitation, but badly for subsequent prediction; the experiment of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is not only able to simulate well the precipitation 6 hours ahead, but also able to correctly predict the evolution of rain bands from 6 to 12 hours in advance. 展开更多
关键词 radar-retrieved water vapor RAINFALL in annually FIRST RAINY season short-range FORECAST data assimilation
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A Novel Method for Precipitation Nowcasting Based on ST-LSTM 被引量:2
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作者 Wei Fang Liang Shen +1 位作者 Victor S.Sheng Qiongying Xue 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2022年第9期4867-4877,共11页
Precipitation nowcasting is of great significance for severe convective weather warnings.Radar echo extrapolation is a commonly used precipitation nowcasting method.However,the traditional radar echo extrapolation met... Precipitation nowcasting is of great significance for severe convective weather warnings.Radar echo extrapolation is a commonly used precipitation nowcasting method.However,the traditional radar echo extrapolation methods are encountered with the dilemma of low prediction accuracy and extrapolation ambiguity.The reason is that those methods cannot retain important long-term information and fail to capture short-term motion information from the long-range data stream.In order to solve the above problems,we select the spatiotemporal long short-term memory(ST-LSTM)as the recurrent unit of the model and integrate the 3D convolution operation in it to strengthen the model’s ability to capture short-term motion information which plays a vital role in the prediction of radar echo motion trends.For the purpose of enhancing the model’s ability to retain long-term important information,we also introduce the channel attention mechanism to achieve this goal.In the experiment,the training and testing datasets are constructed using radar data of Shanghai,we compare our model with three benchmark models under the reflectance thresholds of 15 and 25.Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the three benchmark models in radar echo extrapolation task,which obtains a higher accuracy rate and improves the clarity of the extrapolated image. 展开更多
关键词 Precipitation nowcasting radar echo extrapolation ST-LSTM attention mechanism
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Effects of short-range attraction on Jamming transition 被引量:1
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作者 Zhenhuan Xu Rui Wang +2 位作者 Jiamei Cui Yanjun Liu Wen Zheng 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2021年第6期409-413,共5页
Enormous progresses to understand the jamming transition have been driven via simulating purely repulsive particles which were somehow idealized in the past two decades. While the attractive systems are both theoretic... Enormous progresses to understand the jamming transition have been driven via simulating purely repulsive particles which were somehow idealized in the past two decades. While the attractive systems are both theoretical and practical compared with repulsive systems. By studying the statistics of rigid clusters, we find that the critical packing fraction φ_(c) varies linearly with attraction μ for different system sizes when the range of attraction is short. While for systems with long-range attractions, however, the slope of φ_(c) appears significantly different, which means that there are two distinct jamming scenarios. In this paper, we focus our main attention on short-range attractions scenario and define a new quantity named "short-range attraction susceptibility" χ_(p), which describes the degree of response of the probability of finding jammed states pjto short-range attraction strength μ. Our central results are that χ_(p) diverges in the thermodynamic limit as χ_(p) ∝|φ-φ_(c)^(∞)|^(-γ_(p)), where φ_(c)^(∞) is the packing fraction at the jamming transition for the infinite system in the absence of attraction. χ_(p) obeys scaling collapse with a scaling function in both two and three dimensions, illuminating that the jamming transition can be considered as a phase transition as proposed in previous work. 展开更多
关键词 short-range attraction Jamming transition short-range attraction susceptibility
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