Structural properties of the ship container logistics network of China(SCLNC)are studied in the light of recent investigations of complex networks.SCLNC is composed of a set of routes and ports located along the sea o...Structural properties of the ship container logistics network of China(SCLNC)are studied in the light of recent investigations of complex networks.SCLNC is composed of a set of routes and ports located along the sea or river.Network properties including the degree distribution,degree correlations,clustering,shortest path length,centrality and betweenness are studied in different definition of network topology.It is found that geographical constraint plays an important role in the network topology of SCLNC.We also study the traffic flow of SCLNC based on the weighted network representation,and demonstrate the weight distribution can be described by power law or exponential function depending on the assumed definition of network topology.Other features related to SCLNC are also investigated.展开更多
The robustness of cargo ship transportation networks is essential to the stability of the world trade system. The current research mainly focuses on the coarse-grained, holistic cargo ship transportation network while...The robustness of cargo ship transportation networks is essential to the stability of the world trade system. The current research mainly focuses on the coarse-grained, holistic cargo ship transportation network while ignoring the structural diversity of different sub-networks. In this paper, we evaluate the robustness of the global cargo ship transportation network based on the most recent Automatic Identification System（AIS） data available. First, we subdivide three typical cargo ship transportation networks（i.e., oil tanker, container ship and bulk carrier） from the original cargo ship transportation network. Then, we design statistical indices based on complex network theory and employ four attack strategies, including random attack and three intentional attacks（i.e., degree-based attack, betweenness-based attack and flux-based attack） to evaluate the robustness of the three typical cargo ship transportation networks. Finally, we compare the integrity of the remaining ports of the network when a small proportion of ports lose their function. The results show that 1） compared with the holistic cargo ship transportation network, the fine-grain-based cargo ship transportation networks can fully reflect the pattern and process of global cargo transportation; 2） different cargo ship networks behave heterogeneously in terms of their robustness, with the container network being the weakest and the bulk carrier network being the strongest; and 3） small-scale intentional attacks may have significant influence on the integrity of the container network but a minor impact on the bulk carrier and oil tanker transportation networks. These conclusions can help improve the decision support capabilities in maritime transportation planning and emergency response and facilitate the establishment of a more reliable maritime transportation system.Abstract： The robustness of cargo ship transportation networks is essential to the stability of the world trade system. The current research mainly focuses on the coarse-grained, holistic cargo ship transportation network while ignoring the structural diversity of different sub-networks. In this paper, we evaluate the robustness of the global cargo ship transporta- tion network based on the most recent Automatic Identification System （AIS） data available. First, we subdivide three typical cargo ship transportation networks （i.e., oil tanker, container ship and bulk carrier） from the original cargo ship transportation network. Then, we design statistical indices based on complex network theory and employ four attack strategies, in- cluding random attack and three intentional attacks （i.e., degree-based attack, between- ness-based attack and flux-based attack） to evaluate the robustness of the three typical cargo ship transportation networks. Finally, we compare the integrity of the remaining ports of the network when a small proportion of ports lose their function. The results show that 1） com- pared with the holistic cargo ship transportation network, the fine-grain-based cargo ship transportation networks can fully reflect the pattern and process of global cargo transportation 2） different cargo ship networks behave heterogeneously in terms of their robustness, with the container network being the weakest and the bulk carrier network being the strongest; and 3） small-scale intentional attacks may have significant influence on the integrity of the con- tainer network but a minor impact on the bulk carrier and oil tanker transportation networks.These conclusions can help improve the decision support capabilities in maritime transportation planning and emergency response and facilitate the establishment of a more reliable maritime transportation system.展开更多
This study selected the Sino-US route data from the top 30 global container liner companies between December 1,2019,and December 29,2019,as the data source utilizing the complex network research methodology.It constru...This study selected the Sino-US route data from the top 30 global container liner companies between December 1,2019,and December 29,2019,as the data source utilizing the complex network research methodology.It constructs a Sino-US container shipping network through voyage weighting and analyzes the essential structural characteristics to explore the network’s complex structural fea-tures.The network’s evolution is examined from three perspectives,namely,time,space,and event influence,aiming to comprehens-ively explore the network’s evolution mechanism.The results revealed that:1)the weighted Sino-US container shipping network exhib-its small-world and scale-free properties.Key hub ports in the United States include NEW YORK NY,SAVANNAH GA,LOS ANGELES CA,and OAKLAND CA,whereas SHANGHAI serving as the hub port in China.The geographical distribution of these hub ports is uneven.2)Concerning the evolution of the weighted Sino-US container shipping network,from a temporal perspective,the evolution of the regional structure of the entire Sino-US region and the Inland United States is in a stage of radiative expansion and de-velopment,with a need for further enhancement in competitiveness and development speed.The evolution of the regional structure of southern China and Europe is transitioning from the stage of radiative expansion and development to an advanced equilibrium stage.The shipping development in Northern China,the Western and Eastern United States,and Asia is undergoing significant changes but faces challenges of fierce competition and imbalances.From a spatial perspective,the rationality and effectiveness of the improved weighted Barrat-Barthelemy-Vespignani(BBV)model are confirmed through theoretical derivation.The applicability of the improved evolution model is verified by simulating the evolution of the weighted Sino-US container shipping network.From an event impact per-spective,the Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic has not fundamentally affected the spatial pattern of the weighted Sino-US container shipping network but has significantly impacted the network’s connectivity.The network lacks sufficient resilience and stability in emergency situations.3)Based on the analysis of the structural characteristics and evolution of the weighted Sino-US con-tainer shipping network,recommendations for network development are proposed from three aspects:emphasizing the development of hub ports,focusing on the balanced development of the network,and optimizing the layout of Chinese ports.展开更多
In this paper, the neural network technology is combined with the fuzzy set theory to model the wave-induced ship motions in irregular seas. This combination makes possible the handling of a non-linear dynamic system ...In this paper, the neural network technology is combined with the fuzzy set theory to model the wave-induced ship motions in irregular seas. This combination makes possible the handling of a non-linear dynamic system with insufficient input information. The numerical results from the strip theory are used to train the networks and to demonstrate the validity of the proposed procedure.展开更多
Ship energy consumption and emission prediction are the main concern of the shipping industry for ship energy efficiency management and pollution gas emission control. And they are attracting more global attention and...Ship energy consumption and emission prediction are the main concern of the shipping industry for ship energy efficiency management and pollution gas emission control. And they are attracting more global attention and research interests because of the increase in global shipping trade volume. As the core of maritime transportation, a large volume of data is collected around ships such as voyage data. Due to the rapid development of computational power and the widely equipped AIS device on ships, the use of maritime big data for improving and monitoring ship’s energy efficiency is becoming possible. In this paper, a fuel consumption and carbon emission model using the artificial neural network (ANN) framework is proposed by using AIS, ship machinery, and weather data. The proposed work is a complete framework including data collection, data cleaning, data clustering and model-building methodology. To obtain the suitable parameters of the model, the number of neurons, data inputs and activate functions were tested on both AIS-based data and MRV-based data for comparison. The results show that the proposed method can provide a solid prediction of ship’s fuel consumption and carbon emissions under varying weather conditions.展开更多
The world trend in ship automation is to integrate the monitoring, intelligent control and systematic management of the instruments and equipments both on bridge and in engine room. The paper presents a design scheme ...The world trend in ship automation is to integrate the monitoring, intelligent control and systematic management of the instruments and equipments both on bridge and in engine room. The paper presents a design scheme of the ship integrated monitoring and operating system based on two layers distributed and redundant computer network. The lower layer network is the field bus network connected mainly by CAN bus; the upper one is the PC local network in TCP/IP protocol, which consisted of a database server, monitoring and operating computers, industrial computers and a set of switches. Distributed schemes are fully applied to both software and hardware. This paper specifically describes the composition, software distribution and redundant technology of the upper local network and gives some important sample codes for the implement of the redundant and distributed design. The technologies here have been proved in the many applications and it may be applied to other industrial fields.展开更多
为确立船舶营运过程中的风险涌现特征,需要考虑复杂系统组成因子的不确定结构问题。以复杂性系统为视角,提出了一种复杂网络不确定结构的风险功能共振分析模型。首先,利用Apriori算法对船舶系统组分进行风险分析,计算组成因子间的非线...为确立船舶营运过程中的风险涌现特征,需要考虑复杂系统组成因子的不确定结构问题。以复杂性系统为视角,提出了一种复杂网络不确定结构的风险功能共振分析模型。首先,利用Apriori算法对船舶系统组分进行风险分析,计算组成因子间的非线性交互效用,生成交互强度矩阵,从而确立船舶营运安全风险的功能共振分析模型(Functional Resonance Analysis Model,FRAM)。随后,采用图卷积网络(Graph Convolutional Network,GCN)构建系统组分网络,识别关键节点,并对因子交互关系网络结构进行重塑。最后,引入深度优先搜索(Depth First Search,DFS)算法,识别关键风险路径,计算出船舶系统组分因子的影响度。结合港口国监督(Port State Control,PSC)缺陷数据,运用前述模型对船舶营运风险进行仿真应用。应用结果表明,船舶的不安全状态受到内外部组成因子的属性影响,并存在关键共振路径关系,其中消防系统、船舶结构状态等是影响船舶不安全状态的核心节点。构建的风险功能共振分析模型能够基于不同的数据输入,自适应生成相应的风险路径依赖。基于复杂网络结构的风险功能共振模型有助于分析不确定结构复杂系统的风险涌现。展开更多
Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) is an important assessment index in world dirty tanker shipping industry. Actors in the industry sector can gain numerous benefits from accurate forecasting of the BDTI. Howev...Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) is an important assessment index in world dirty tanker shipping industry. Actors in the industry sector can gain numerous benefits from accurate forecasting of the BDTI. However, limitations exist in traditional stochastic and econometric explanation modeling techniques used in freight rate forecasting. At the same time research in shipping index forecasting e.g. BDTI applying artificial intelligent techniques is scarce. This analyses the possibilities to forecast the BDTI by applying Wavelet Neural Networks (WNN). Firstly, the characteristics of traditional and artificial intelligent forecasting techniques are discussed and rationales for choosing WNN are explained. Secondly, the components and features of BDTI will be explicated. After that, the authors delve the determinants and influencing factors behind fluctuations of the BDTI in order to set inputs for WNN forecasting model. The paper examines non-linearity and non-stationary features of the BDTI and elaborates WNN model building procedures. Finally, the comparison of forecasting performance between WNN and ARIMA time series models show that WNN has better forecasting accuracy than traditionally used modeling techniques.展开更多
基金supported by Youth Foundation for Research of the Waterborne Transportation Institute.
文摘Structural properties of the ship container logistics network of China(SCLNC)are studied in the light of recent investigations of complex networks.SCLNC is composed of a set of routes and ports located along the sea or river.Network properties including the degree distribution,degree correlations,clustering,shortest path length,centrality and betweenness are studied in different definition of network topology.It is found that geographical constraint plays an important role in the network topology of SCLNC.We also study the traffic flow of SCLNC based on the weighted network representation,and demonstrate the weight distribution can be described by power law or exponential function depending on the assumed definition of network topology.Other features related to SCLNC are also investigated.
基金Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-3National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41501490
文摘The robustness of cargo ship transportation networks is essential to the stability of the world trade system. The current research mainly focuses on the coarse-grained, holistic cargo ship transportation network while ignoring the structural diversity of different sub-networks. In this paper, we evaluate the robustness of the global cargo ship transportation network based on the most recent Automatic Identification System（AIS） data available. First, we subdivide three typical cargo ship transportation networks（i.e., oil tanker, container ship and bulk carrier） from the original cargo ship transportation network. Then, we design statistical indices based on complex network theory and employ four attack strategies, including random attack and three intentional attacks（i.e., degree-based attack, betweenness-based attack and flux-based attack） to evaluate the robustness of the three typical cargo ship transportation networks. Finally, we compare the integrity of the remaining ports of the network when a small proportion of ports lose their function. The results show that 1） compared with the holistic cargo ship transportation network, the fine-grain-based cargo ship transportation networks can fully reflect the pattern and process of global cargo transportation; 2） different cargo ship networks behave heterogeneously in terms of their robustness, with the container network being the weakest and the bulk carrier network being the strongest; and 3） small-scale intentional attacks may have significant influence on the integrity of the container network but a minor impact on the bulk carrier and oil tanker transportation networks. These conclusions can help improve the decision support capabilities in maritime transportation planning and emergency response and facilitate the establishment of a more reliable maritime transportation system.Abstract： The robustness of cargo ship transportation networks is essential to the stability of the world trade system. The current research mainly focuses on the coarse-grained, holistic cargo ship transportation network while ignoring the structural diversity of different sub-networks. In this paper, we evaluate the robustness of the global cargo ship transporta- tion network based on the most recent Automatic Identification System （AIS） data available. First, we subdivide three typical cargo ship transportation networks （i.e., oil tanker, container ship and bulk carrier） from the original cargo ship transportation network. Then, we design statistical indices based on complex network theory and employ four attack strategies, in- cluding random attack and three intentional attacks （i.e., degree-based attack, between- ness-based attack and flux-based attack） to evaluate the robustness of the three typical cargo ship transportation networks. Finally, we compare the integrity of the remaining ports of the network when a small proportion of ports lose their function. The results show that 1） com- pared with the holistic cargo ship transportation network, the fine-grain-based cargo ship transportation networks can fully reflect the pattern and process of global cargo transportation 2） different cargo ship networks behave heterogeneously in terms of their robustness, with the container network being the weakest and the bulk carrier network being the strongest; and 3） small-scale intentional attacks may have significant influence on the integrity of the con- tainer network but a minor impact on the bulk carrier and oil tanker transportation networks.These conclusions can help improve the decision support capabilities in maritime transportation planning and emergency response and facilitate the establishment of a more reliable maritime transportation system.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41201473,41371975)。
文摘This study selected the Sino-US route data from the top 30 global container liner companies between December 1,2019,and December 29,2019,as the data source utilizing the complex network research methodology.It constructs a Sino-US container shipping network through voyage weighting and analyzes the essential structural characteristics to explore the network’s complex structural fea-tures.The network’s evolution is examined from three perspectives,namely,time,space,and event influence,aiming to comprehens-ively explore the network’s evolution mechanism.The results revealed that:1)the weighted Sino-US container shipping network exhib-its small-world and scale-free properties.Key hub ports in the United States include NEW YORK NY,SAVANNAH GA,LOS ANGELES CA,and OAKLAND CA,whereas SHANGHAI serving as the hub port in China.The geographical distribution of these hub ports is uneven.2)Concerning the evolution of the weighted Sino-US container shipping network,from a temporal perspective,the evolution of the regional structure of the entire Sino-US region and the Inland United States is in a stage of radiative expansion and de-velopment,with a need for further enhancement in competitiveness and development speed.The evolution of the regional structure of southern China and Europe is transitioning from the stage of radiative expansion and development to an advanced equilibrium stage.The shipping development in Northern China,the Western and Eastern United States,and Asia is undergoing significant changes but faces challenges of fierce competition and imbalances.From a spatial perspective,the rationality and effectiveness of the improved weighted Barrat-Barthelemy-Vespignani(BBV)model are confirmed through theoretical derivation.The applicability of the improved evolution model is verified by simulating the evolution of the weighted Sino-US container shipping network.From an event impact per-spective,the Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic has not fundamentally affected the spatial pattern of the weighted Sino-US container shipping network but has significantly impacted the network’s connectivity.The network lacks sufficient resilience and stability in emergency situations.3)Based on the analysis of the structural characteristics and evolution of the weighted Sino-US con-tainer shipping network,recommendations for network development are proposed from three aspects:emphasizing the development of hub ports,focusing on the balanced development of the network,and optimizing the layout of Chinese ports.
文摘In this paper, the neural network technology is combined with the fuzzy set theory to model the wave-induced ship motions in irregular seas. This combination makes possible the handling of a non-linear dynamic system with insufficient input information. The numerical results from the strip theory are used to train the networks and to demonstrate the validity of the proposed procedure.
文摘Ship energy consumption and emission prediction are the main concern of the shipping industry for ship energy efficiency management and pollution gas emission control. And they are attracting more global attention and research interests because of the increase in global shipping trade volume. As the core of maritime transportation, a large volume of data is collected around ships such as voyage data. Due to the rapid development of computational power and the widely equipped AIS device on ships, the use of maritime big data for improving and monitoring ship’s energy efficiency is becoming possible. In this paper, a fuel consumption and carbon emission model using the artificial neural network (ANN) framework is proposed by using AIS, ship machinery, and weather data. The proposed work is a complete framework including data collection, data cleaning, data clustering and model-building methodology. To obtain the suitable parameters of the model, the number of neurons, data inputs and activate functions were tested on both AIS-based data and MRV-based data for comparison. The results show that the proposed method can provide a solid prediction of ship’s fuel consumption and carbon emissions under varying weather conditions.
基金the Special Doctorial Point Fund of National Education Department of China(1999015103),the Doctor Foundation of Liaoning (001057)and the Outstanding Youth Fund of Dalian City(2001122).
文摘The world trend in ship automation is to integrate the monitoring, intelligent control and systematic management of the instruments and equipments both on bridge and in engine room. The paper presents a design scheme of the ship integrated monitoring and operating system based on two layers distributed and redundant computer network. The lower layer network is the field bus network connected mainly by CAN bus; the upper one is the PC local network in TCP/IP protocol, which consisted of a database server, monitoring and operating computers, industrial computers and a set of switches. Distributed schemes are fully applied to both software and hardware. This paper specifically describes the composition, software distribution and redundant technology of the upper local network and gives some important sample codes for the implement of the redundant and distributed design. The technologies here have been proved in the many applications and it may be applied to other industrial fields.
文摘为确立船舶营运过程中的风险涌现特征,需要考虑复杂系统组成因子的不确定结构问题。以复杂性系统为视角,提出了一种复杂网络不确定结构的风险功能共振分析模型。首先,利用Apriori算法对船舶系统组分进行风险分析,计算组成因子间的非线性交互效用,生成交互强度矩阵,从而确立船舶营运安全风险的功能共振分析模型(Functional Resonance Analysis Model,FRAM)。随后,采用图卷积网络(Graph Convolutional Network,GCN)构建系统组分网络,识别关键节点,并对因子交互关系网络结构进行重塑。最后,引入深度优先搜索(Depth First Search,DFS)算法,识别关键风险路径,计算出船舶系统组分因子的影响度。结合港口国监督(Port State Control,PSC)缺陷数据,运用前述模型对船舶营运风险进行仿真应用。应用结果表明,船舶的不安全状态受到内外部组成因子的属性影响,并存在关键共振路径关系,其中消防系统、船舶结构状态等是影响船舶不安全状态的核心节点。构建的风险功能共振分析模型能够基于不同的数据输入,自适应生成相应的风险路径依赖。基于复杂网络结构的风险功能共振模型有助于分析不确定结构复杂系统的风险涌现。
文摘Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) is an important assessment index in world dirty tanker shipping industry. Actors in the industry sector can gain numerous benefits from accurate forecasting of the BDTI. However, limitations exist in traditional stochastic and econometric explanation modeling techniques used in freight rate forecasting. At the same time research in shipping index forecasting e.g. BDTI applying artificial intelligent techniques is scarce. This analyses the possibilities to forecast the BDTI by applying Wavelet Neural Networks (WNN). Firstly, the characteristics of traditional and artificial intelligent forecasting techniques are discussed and rationales for choosing WNN are explained. Secondly, the components and features of BDTI will be explicated. After that, the authors delve the determinants and influencing factors behind fluctuations of the BDTI in order to set inputs for WNN forecasting model. The paper examines non-linearity and non-stationary features of the BDTI and elaborates WNN model building procedures. Finally, the comparison of forecasting performance between WNN and ARIMA time series models show that WNN has better forecasting accuracy than traditionally used modeling techniques.
