Load time series analysis is critical for resource management and optimization decisions,especially automated analysis techniques.Existing research has insufficiently interpreted the overall characteristics of samples...Load time series analysis is critical for resource management and optimization decisions,especially automated analysis techniques.Existing research has insufficiently interpreted the overall characteristics of samples,leading to significant differences in load level detection conclusions for samples with different characteristics(trend,seasonality,cyclicality).Achieving automated,feature-adaptive,and quantifiable analysis methods remains a challenge.This paper proposes a Threshold Recognition-based Load Level Detection Algorithm(TRLLD),which effectively identifies different load level regions in samples of arbitrary size and distribution type based on sample characteristics.By utilizing distribution density uniformity,the algorithm classifies data points and ultimately obtains normalized load values.In the feature recognition step,the algorithm employs the Density Uniformity Index Based on Differences(DUID),High Load Level Concentration(HLLC),and Low Load Level Concentration(LLLC)to assess sample characteristics,which are independent of specific load values,providing a standardized perspective on features,ensuring high efficiency and strong interpretability.Compared to traditional methods,the proposed approach demonstrates better adaptive and real-time analysis capabilities.Experimental results indicate that it can effectively identify high load and low load regions in 16 groups of time series samples with different load characteristics,yielding highly interpretable results.The correlation between the DUID and sample density distribution uniformity reaches 98.08%.When introducing 10% MAD intensity noise,the maximum relative error is 4.72%,showcasing high robustness.Notably,it exhibits significant advantages in general and low sample scenarios.展开更多
A novel model is proposed which comprises of a beam bridge subjected to an axial load and an infinite series of moving loads. The moving loads, whose distance between the neighbouring ones is the length of the beam br...A novel model is proposed which comprises of a beam bridge subjected to an axial load and an infinite series of moving loads. The moving loads, whose distance between the neighbouring ones is the length of the beam bridge, coupled with the axial force can lead the vibration of the beam bridge to codimension-two bifurcation. Of particular concern is a parameter regime where non-persistence set regions undergo a transition to persistence regions. The boundary of each stripe represents a bifurcation which can drive the system off a kind of dynamics and jump to another one, causing damage due to the resulting amplitude jumps. The Galerkin method, averaging method, invertible linear transformation, and near identity nonlinear transformations are used to obtain the universal unfolding for the codimension-two bifurcation of the mid-span deflection. The efficiency of the theoretical analysis obtained in this paper is verified via numerical simulations.展开更多
In this study we compared weekly GNSS position time series with modelled values of crustal deformations on the basis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment （GRACE） data. The Global Navigation Satellite Systems ...In this study we compared weekly GNSS position time series with modelled values of crustal deformations on the basis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment （GRACE） data. The Global Navigation Satellite Systems （GNSS） time series were taken from homogeneously reprocessed global network solutions within the International GNSS Service （IGS） Reprucessing 1 project and from regional solutions performed by Warsaw University of Technology （WUT） European Permanent Network （EPN） Local Analysis Center （LAC） within the EPN reprocessing project. Eight GNSS sites from the territory of Poland with observation timespans between 2.5 and 13 years were selected for this study. The Total Water Equivalent （TWE） estimation from GRACE data was used to compute deformations using the Green＇s function formalism. High frequency components were removed from GRACE data to avoid aliasing problems. Since GRACE observes mainly the mass transport in continental storage of water, we also compared GRACE deformations and the GNSS position time series, with the deformations computed on the basis of a hydrosphere model. We used the output of Water GAP Hydrology Model （WGHM） to compute deformations in the same manner as for the GRACE data. The WGHM gave slightly larger amplitudes than GNSS and GRACE. The atmospheric non-tidal loading effect was removed from GNSS position time series before comparing them with modelled deformations. The results confirmed that the major part of observed seasonal variations for GNSS vertical components can be attributed to the hy- drosphere loading. The results for these components agree very well both in the amplitude and phase. The decrease in standard deviation of the residual GNSS position time series for vertical components corrected for the hydrosphere loading reached maximally 36% and occurred for all but one stations for both global and regional solutions. For horizontal components the amplitudes are about three times smaller than for vertical components therefore the comparison is much more complicated and the conclusions are ambiguous.展开更多
In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access ...In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access by 2024. Meanwhile, on the basis of the rapid and dynamic connection of new households, there is uncertainty about generating, importing, and exporting energy whichever imposes a significant barrier. Long-Term Load Forecasting (LTLF) will be a key to the country’s utility plan to examine the dynamic electrical load demand growth patterns and facilitate long-term planning for better and more accurate power system master plan expansion. However, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) for long-term electric load forecasting is presented in this paper for accurate load mix planning. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work properly for LTLF, a hybrid Q-SVM will be introduced to improve forecasting accuracy. Finally, effectively assess model performance and efficiency, error metrics, and model benchmark parameters there assessed. The case study demonstrates that the new strategy is quite useful to improve LTLF accuracy. The historical electric load data of Rwanda Energy Group (REG), a national utility company from 1998 to 2020 was used to test the forecast model. The simulation results demonstrate the proposed algorithm enhanced better forecasting accuracy.展开更多
文摘Load time series analysis is critical for resource management and optimization decisions,especially automated analysis techniques.Existing research has insufficiently interpreted the overall characteristics of samples,leading to significant differences in load level detection conclusions for samples with different characteristics(trend,seasonality,cyclicality).Achieving automated,feature-adaptive,and quantifiable analysis methods remains a challenge.This paper proposes a Threshold Recognition-based Load Level Detection Algorithm(TRLLD),which effectively identifies different load level regions in samples of arbitrary size and distribution type based on sample characteristics.By utilizing distribution density uniformity,the algorithm classifies data points and ultimately obtains normalized load values.In the feature recognition step,the algorithm employs the Density Uniformity Index Based on Differences(DUID),High Load Level Concentration(HLLC),and Low Load Level Concentration(LLLC)to assess sample characteristics,which are independent of specific load values,providing a standardized perspective on features,ensuring high efficiency and strong interpretability.Compared to traditional methods,the proposed approach demonstrates better adaptive and real-time analysis capabilities.Experimental results indicate that it can effectively identify high load and low load regions in 16 groups of time series samples with different load characteristics,yielding highly interpretable results.The correlation between the DUID and sample density distribution uniformity reaches 98.08%.When introducing 10% MAD intensity noise,the maximum relative error is 4.72%,showcasing high robustness.Notably,it exhibits significant advantages in general and low sample scenarios.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11002093,11172183,and 11202142)the Science and Technology Fund of the Science and Technology Department of Hebei Province,China(Grant No.11215643)
文摘A novel model is proposed which comprises of a beam bridge subjected to an axial load and an infinite series of moving loads. The moving loads, whose distance between the neighbouring ones is the length of the beam bridge, coupled with the axial force can lead the vibration of the beam bridge to codimension-two bifurcation. Of particular concern is a parameter regime where non-persistence set regions undergo a transition to persistence regions. The boundary of each stripe represents a bifurcation which can drive the system off a kind of dynamics and jump to another one, causing damage due to the resulting amplitude jumps. The Galerkin method, averaging method, invertible linear transformation, and near identity nonlinear transformations are used to obtain the universal unfolding for the codimension-two bifurcation of the mid-span deflection. The efficiency of the theoretical analysis obtained in this paper is verified via numerical simulations.
文摘In this study we compared weekly GNSS position time series with modelled values of crustal deformations on the basis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment （GRACE） data. The Global Navigation Satellite Systems （GNSS） time series were taken from homogeneously reprocessed global network solutions within the International GNSS Service （IGS） Reprucessing 1 project and from regional solutions performed by Warsaw University of Technology （WUT） European Permanent Network （EPN） Local Analysis Center （LAC） within the EPN reprocessing project. Eight GNSS sites from the territory of Poland with observation timespans between 2.5 and 13 years were selected for this study. The Total Water Equivalent （TWE） estimation from GRACE data was used to compute deformations using the Green＇s function formalism. High frequency components were removed from GRACE data to avoid aliasing problems. Since GRACE observes mainly the mass transport in continental storage of water, we also compared GRACE deformations and the GNSS position time series, with the deformations computed on the basis of a hydrosphere model. We used the output of Water GAP Hydrology Model （WGHM） to compute deformations in the same manner as for the GRACE data. The WGHM gave slightly larger amplitudes than GNSS and GRACE. The atmospheric non-tidal loading effect was removed from GNSS position time series before comparing them with modelled deformations. The results confirmed that the major part of observed seasonal variations for GNSS vertical components can be attributed to the hy- drosphere loading. The results for these components agree very well both in the amplitude and phase. The decrease in standard deviation of the residual GNSS position time series for vertical components corrected for the hydrosphere loading reached maximally 36% and occurred for all but one stations for both global and regional solutions. For horizontal components the amplitudes are about three times smaller than for vertical components therefore the comparison is much more complicated and the conclusions are ambiguous.
文摘In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access by 2024. Meanwhile, on the basis of the rapid and dynamic connection of new households, there is uncertainty about generating, importing, and exporting energy whichever imposes a significant barrier. Long-Term Load Forecasting (LTLF) will be a key to the country’s utility plan to examine the dynamic electrical load demand growth patterns and facilitate long-term planning for better and more accurate power system master plan expansion. However, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) for long-term electric load forecasting is presented in this paper for accurate load mix planning. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work properly for LTLF, a hybrid Q-SVM will be introduced to improve forecasting accuracy. Finally, effectively assess model performance and efficiency, error metrics, and model benchmark parameters there assessed. The case study demonstrates that the new strategy is quite useful to improve LTLF accuracy. The historical electric load data of Rwanda Energy Group (REG), a national utility company from 1998 to 2020 was used to test the forecast model. The simulation results demonstrate the proposed algorithm enhanced better forecasting accuracy.
