This paper presents a framework for constructing surrogate models for sensitivity analysis of structural dynamics behavior.Physical models involving deformation,such as collisions,vibrations,and penetration,are devel-...This paper presents a framework for constructing surrogate models for sensitivity analysis of structural dynamics behavior.Physical models involving deformation,such as collisions,vibrations,and penetration,are devel-oped using the material point method.To reduce the computational cost of Monte Carlo simulations,response surface models are created as surrogate models for the material point system to approximate its dynamic behavior.An adaptive randomized greedy algorithm is employed to construct a sparse polynomial chaos expansion model with a fixed order,effectively balancing the accuracy and computational efficiency of the surrogate model.Based on the sparse polynomial chaos expansion,sensitivity analysis is conducted using the global finite difference and Sobol methods.Several examples of structural dynamics are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in addressing structural dynamics problems.展开更多
Predicting long-term potential human health risks from contaminants in the multimedia environment requires the use of models. However, there is uncertainty associated with these predictions of many parameters which ca...Predicting long-term potential human health risks from contaminants in the multimedia environment requires the use of models. However, there is uncertainty associated with these predictions of many parameters which can be represented by ranges or probability distributions rather than single value. Based on a case study with information from an actual site contaminated with benzene, this study describes the application of MMSOILS model to predict health risk and distributions of those predictions generated using Monte Carlo techniques. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate which of the random variables are most important in producing the predicted distributions of health risks. The sensitivity analysis shows that the predicted distributions can be accurately reproduced using a small subset of the random variables. The practical implication of this analysis is the ability to distinguish between important versus unimportant random variables in terms of their sensitivity to selected endpoints. This directly translates into a reduction in data collection and modeling effort. It was demonstrated that how correlation coefficient could be used to evaluate contributions to overall uncertainty from each parameter. The integrated uncertainty analysis shows that although drinking groundwater risk is similar with inhalation air risk, uncertainties of total risk come dominantly from drinking groundwater route. Most percent of the variance of total risk comes from four random variables.展开更多
Combining the advantages of the stratified sampling and the importance sampling, a stratified importance sampling method （SISM） is presented to analyze the reliability sensitivity for structure with multiple failure...Combining the advantages of the stratified sampling and the importance sampling, a stratified importance sampling method （SISM） is presented to analyze the reliability sensitivity for structure with multiple failure modes. In the presented method, the variable space is divided into several disjoint subspace by n-dimensional coordinate planes at the mean point of the random vec- tor, and the importance sampling functions in the subspaces are constructed by keeping the sampling center at the mean point and augmenting the standard deviation by a factor of 2. The sample size generated from the importance sampling function in each subspace is determined by the contribution of the subspace to the reliability sensitivity, which can be estimated by iterative simulation in the sampling process. The formulae of the reliability sensitivity estimation, the variance and the coefficient of variation are derived for the presented SISM. Comparing with the Monte Carlo method, the stratified sampling method and the importance sampling method, the presented SISM has wider applicability and higher calculation efficiency, which is demonstrated by numerical examples. Finally, the reliability sensitivity analysis of flap structure is illustrated that the SISM can be applied to engineering structure.展开更多
Based on the random perturbation technique for reliability sensitivity design,some realistic reliability-based sensitivity issues are discussed,some of which have a structure of high nonlinear performance functions.Co...Based on the random perturbation technique for reliability sensitivity design,some realistic reliability-based sensitivity issues are discussed,some of which have a structure of high nonlinear performance functions.Combining the related theories of the moment method of the reliability analysis,the matrix differential,and the Kronecker algebra,the reliability-based sensitivity method based on the perturbation method is modified if the first four moments of random variables are given.Meanwhile,a reliability-based sensitivity computation method is proposed.Some examples are used to show that using this method can effectively improve the accuracy of the reliability-based sensitivity computation and offer a reliable theoretic basis in engineering.展开更多
As one of the bases of gradient-based optimization algorithms, sensitivity analysis is usually required to calculate the derivatives of the system response with respect to the machining parameters. The most widely use...As one of the bases of gradient-based optimization algorithms, sensitivity analysis is usually required to calculate the derivatives of the system response with respect to the machining parameters. The most widely used approaches for sensitivity analysis are based on time-consuming numerical methods, such as finite difference methods. This paper presents a semi-analytical method for calculation of the sensitivity of the stability boundary in milling. After transforming the delay-differential equation with time-periodic coefficients governing the dynamic milling process into the integral form, the Floquet transition matrix is constructed by using the numerical integration method. Then, the analytical expressions of derivatives of the Floquet transition matrix with respect to the machining parameters are obtained. Thereafter, the classical analytical expression of the sensitivity of matrix eigenvalues is employed to calculate the sensitivity of the stability lobe diagram. The two-degree-of-freedom milling example illustrates the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method. Compared with the existing methods, the unique merit of the proposed method is that it can be used for analytically computing the sensitivity of the stability boundary in milling, without employing any finite difference methods. Therefore, the high accuracy and high efficiency are both achieved. The proposed method can serve as an effective tool for machining parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis in high-speed milling.展开更多
For a degradable structural system with fuzzy failure region, a moment method based on fuzzy reliability sensitivity algorithm is presented. According to the value assignment of performance function, the integral regi...For a degradable structural system with fuzzy failure region, a moment method based on fuzzy reliability sensitivity algorithm is presented. According to the value assignment of performance function, the integral region for calculating the fuzzy failure probability is first split into a series of subregions in which the membership function values of the performance function within the fuzzy failure region can be approximated by a set of constants. The fuzzy failure probability is then transformed into a sum of products of the random failure probabilities and the approximate constants of the membership function in the subregions. Furthermore, the fuzzy reliability sensitivity analysis is transformed into a series of random reliability sensitivity analysis, and the random reliability sensitivity can be obtained by the constructed moment method. The primary advantages of the presented method include higher efficiency for implicit performance function with low and medium dimensionality and wide applicability to multiple failure modes and nonnormal basic random variables. The limitation is that the required computation effort grows exponentially with the increase of dimensionality of the basic random vari- able; hence, it is not suitable for high dimensionality problem. Compared with the available methods, the presented one is pretty competitive in the case that the dimensionality is lower than 10. The presented examples are used to verify the advantages and indicate the limitations.展开更多
Cavity resonance noise of passenger car tires is generated by interacting excitation between a tire structure and the fill gas (air), and generally lies in a frequency range of 200?250 Hz. As such, this noise is stron...Cavity resonance noise of passenger car tires is generated by interacting excitation between a tire structure and the fill gas (air), and generally lies in a frequency range of 200?250 Hz. As such, this noise is strongly perceived and may be a serious source of driver annoyance. Thus, many studies regarding the cavity noise mechanism and its reduction have already been conducted. In this work, a vibro-acoustic coupled analysis was conducted between a tire structure and air cavity. Using this analysis, we can more accurately simulate the tire noise performance in the region of the cavity resonance frequency. An analysis of the effects of variation of tire contour design factors was conducted, using design-of-experiments methods. Finally, a multi-objective optimization was performed using in-house codes to reduce the cavity noise level while minimizing the loss of other performances, such as diminished ride comfort and handling caused by the variations of contour. As a result of this optimization, an optimized contour shape was derived, which satisfied the multi-objective performances.展开更多
Key methods developed and used in the USSR and in the Russian Federation to determine the impact and friction sensitivity of energetic materials and explosives have been discussed.Experimental methodologies and instru...Key methods developed and used in the USSR and in the Russian Federation to determine the impact and friction sensitivity of energetic materials and explosives have been discussed.Experimental methodologies and instruments that underlie the assessment of their production and handling safety have been described.Studies of a large number of compounds have revealed relationships between their sensitivity parameters and structure of individual compounds and compositions.The range of change of physical and chemical characteristics for the compounds we examined covers the entire region of their existence.Theoretical methodology and equations have been formulated to estimate the impact and friction sensitivity parameters of energetic materials and to evaluate the technological safety in use.The developed methodology is characterized by high-accuracy calculations and prediction of sensitivity parameters.展开更多
To reduce the risk of mission failure caused by the MM/OD impact of the spacecraft,it is necessary to optimize the design of the spacecraft.Spacecraft survivability assessment is the key technology in the optimal desi...To reduce the risk of mission failure caused by the MM/OD impact of the spacecraft,it is necessary to optimize the design of the spacecraft.Spacecraft survivability assessment is the key technology in the optimal design of spacecraft.Spacecraft survivability assessment includes spacecraft impact sensitivity analysis and spacecraft component vulnerability analysis under MM/OD environment.The impact sensitivity refers to the probability of a spacecraft encountering an MM/OD impact while in orbit.Vulnerability refers to the probability that each component of a spacecraft may fail or malfunction when impacted by space debris.Yet this paper mainly analyzes the impact sensitivity and proposes a spacecraft sensitivity assessment method under the MM/OD environment based on a panel method.Under this panel method,a spacecraft geometric model is discretized into small panels,and whether they are impacted by MM/OD or not is determined through the analysis of the shielding or shadowing relationships between panels.The number of impacts on each panel is obtained through calculation,and accordingly the probability of each spacecraft component encountering MM/OD impact can be acquired,thus generating the impact sensibility.This paper extracts data from the NASA’s ORDEM2000,the ESA’s MASTER8 as well as the SDEEM2015(Space Debris Environmental Engineering Model developed by HIT),and uses the PCHIP(Piecewise Cubic Hermite Interpolating Polynomial)method to interpolate and fit the size-flux relationship of space debris.Compared with linear interpolation and cubic spline interpolation,the fitting results through the method are relatively more accurate.The feasibility of this method is also demonstrated through two actual examples shown in this paper,whose results are close to those from ESABASE,although there are some minor errors mainly due to different debris data input.Through the cross-check by three risk assessment software-BUMPER,MDPANTO and MODAOST-under standard operating conditions,the feasibility of this method is again verified.展开更多
In watersheds that have not sufficient meteorological and hydrometric data for simulating rainfall-runoff events, using geomorphologic and geomorphoclimatic characteristics of watershed is a conventional method for th...In watersheds that have not sufficient meteorological and hydrometric data for simulating rainfall-runoff events, using geomorphologic and geomorphoclimatic characteristics of watershed is a conventional method for the simulation. A number of rainfall-runoff models utilize these characteristics such as Nash-IUH, Clark-IUH, Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GIUH), Geomorphoclimatic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GcIUH), GIUH-based Nash(GIUH-Nash) and GcIUH-based Clark(GcIUH-Clark). But all these models are not appropriate for mountainous watersheds. Therefore, the objective of this study is to select the best of them for the simulation. The procedure of this study is: a) selecting appropriate rainfall-runoff events for calibration and validation of six hybrid models, b) distinguishing the best model based on different performance criteria(Percentage Error in Volume(PEV); Percentage Error in Peak(PEP); Percentage Error in Time to Peak(PETP); Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient(ENS)), c) Sensitivity analysis for determination of the most effective parameter at each model, d) Uncertainty determination of different parameters in each model and confirmation of the obtained results by application of the performance criteria. For application of this procedure, the Navrood watershed in the north of Iran as a mountainous watershed has been considered. The results showed that the ClarkIUH and GcIUH-Clark are suitable models for simulation of flood hydrographs, while other models cannot simulate flood hydrographs appropriately. The sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameters are the infiltration constant rate and time of concentration in the Clark-IUH model. Also, the most sensitive parameters include the infiltration constant rate and storage coefficient in the GcIUHClark model. The Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models are more sensitive to their parameters. The Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) on Monte Carlo(MC) simulation method was used for evaluation of uncertainty of data in rainfall-runoff models. In this method 500 sets of data values are produced and then the peak discharge of flood hydrographs for each produced data set is simulated with rainfall-runoff models. The uncertainty of data changes the value of simulated peak discharge of flood hydrograph. The uncertainty analysis shows that the observed peak discharges of different rainfall-runoff events are within the range of values of simulated by the six hybrid rainfall-runoff models and IUH that inputs of these models were the produced data sets. The range of the produced peak discharge of flood hydrographs by the Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models is wider than those of other models.展开更多
Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered ...Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology,is fundamentally dependent on the flow of ecosystem services. Marine ecosystem services become increasingly valuable as the terrestrial resources become scarce. The value of marine ecosystem services is the monetary flow of ecosystem services on specific temporal and spatial scales,which often changes due to the variation of the goods prices,yields and the status of marine exploitation. Sensitivity analysis is to study the relationship between the value of marine ecosystem services and the main factors which affect it. Uncertainty analysis based on varying prices,yields and status of marine exploitation was carried out. Through uncertainty analysis,a more credible value range instead of a fixed value of marine ecosystem services was obtained in this study. Moreover,sensitivity analysis of the marine ecosystem services value revealed the relative importance of different factors.展开更多
With the development of satellite structure technology, more and more design parameters will affect its structural performance. It is desirable to obtain an optimal structure design with a minimum weight, including op...With the development of satellite structure technology, more and more design parameters will affect its structural performance. It is desirable to obtain an optimal structure design with a minimum weight, including optimal configuration and sizes. The present paper aims to describe an optimization analysis for a satellite structure, including topology optimization and size optimization. Based on the homogenization method, the topology optimization is carried out for the main supporting frame of service module under given constraints and load conditions, and then the sensitivity analysis is made of 15 structural size parameters of the whole satellite and the optimal sizes are obtained. The numerical result shows that the present optimization design method is very effective.展开更多
This paper aims to solve the resonance failure probability and develop an effective method to estimate the effects of variables and failure modes on failure probability of axially functionally graded material(FGM)pipe...This paper aims to solve the resonance failure probability and develop an effective method to estimate the effects of variables and failure modes on failure probability of axially functionally graded material(FGM)pipe conveying fluid.Correspondingly,the natural frequency of axially FGM pipes conveying fluid is calculated using the differential quadrature method(DQM).A variable sensitivity analysis(VSA)is introduced to measure the effect of each random variable,and a mode sensitivity analysis(MSA)is introduced to acquire the importance ranking of failure modes.Then,an active learning Kriging(ALK)method is established to calculate the resonance failure probability and sensitivity indices,which greatly improves the application of resonance reliability analysis for pipelines in engineering practice.Based on the resonance reliability analysis method,the effects of fluid velocity,volume fraction and fluid density of axially FGM pipe conveying fluid on resonance reliability are analyzed.The results demonstrate that the proposed method has great performance in the anti-resonance analysis of pipes conveying fluid.展开更多
This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are...This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are elucidated geometrically from the perspective of expanding ellipsoids.Based on this geometric interpretation,the QFOSM is further extended to estimate sensitivity indices and assess the significance of various uncertain parameters involved in the slope system.The proposed method has the advantage of computational simplicity,akin to the conventional first-order second-moment method(FOSM),while providing estimation accuracy close to that of the first-order reliability method(FORM).Its performance is demonstrated with a numerical example and three slope examples.The results show that the proposed method can efficiently estimate the slope reliability and simultaneously evaluate the sensitivity of the uncertain parameters.The proposed method does not involve complex optimization or iteration required by the FORM.It can provide a valuable complement to the existing approximate reliability analysis methods,offering rapid sensitivity evaluation and slope reliability analysis.展开更多
The anti-sliding stability of a gravity dam along its foundation surface is a key problem in the design of gravity dams.In this study,a sensitivity analysis framework was proposed for investigating the factors affecti...The anti-sliding stability of a gravity dam along its foundation surface is a key problem in the design of gravity dams.In this study,a sensitivity analysis framework was proposed for investigating the factors affecting gravity dam anti-sliding stability along the foundation surface.According to the design specifications,the loads and factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam were comprehensively selected.Afterwards,the sensitivity of the factors was preliminarily analyzed using the Sobol method with Latin hypercube sampling.Then,the results of the sensitivity analysis were verified with those obtained using the Garson method.Finally,the effects of different sampling methods,probability distribution types of factor samples,and ranges of factor values on the analysis results were evaluated.A case study of a typical gravity dam in Yunnan Province of China showed that the dominant factors affecting the gravity dam anti-sliding stability were the anti-shear cohesion,upstream and downstream water levels,anti-shear friction coefficient,uplift pressure reduction coefficient,concrete density,and silt height.Choice of sampling methods showed no significant effect,but the probability distribution type and the range of factor values greatly affected the analysis results.Therefore,these two elements should be sufficiently considered to improve the reliability of the dam anti-sliding stability analysis.展开更多
For the system with the fuzzy failure state, the effects of the input random variables and the fuzzy failure state on the fuzzy probability of failure for the structural system are studied, and the moment-independence...For the system with the fuzzy failure state, the effects of the input random variables and the fuzzy failure state on the fuzzy probability of failure for the structural system are studied, and the moment-independence global sensitivity analysis（GSA） model is proposed to quantitatively measure these effects. According to the fuzzy random theory, the fuzzy failure state is transformed into an equivalent new random variable for the system, and the complementary function of the membership function of the fuzzy failure state is defined as the cumulative distribution function（CDF） of the new random variable. After introducing the new random variable, the equivalent performance function of the original problem is built. The difference between the unconditional fuzzy probability of failure and conditional fuzzy probability of failure is defined as the moment-independent GSA index. In order to solve the proposed GSA index efficiently, the Kriging-based algorithm is developed to estimate the defined moment-independence GSA index. Two engineering examples are employed to verify the feasibility and rationality of the presented GSA model, and the advantages of the developed Kriging method are also illustrated.展开更多
Observation-based method for O_(3)formation sensitivity research is an important tool to analyze the causes of ground-level O_(3)pollution,which has broad application potentials in determining the O_(3)pollution forma...Observation-based method for O_(3)formation sensitivity research is an important tool to analyze the causes of ground-level O_(3)pollution,which has broad application potentials in determining the O_(3)pollution formation mechanism and developing prevention and control strategies.This paper outlined the development history of research on O_(3)formation sensitivity based on observational methods,described the principle and applicability of the methodology,summarized the relative application results in China and provided recommendations on the prevention and control of O_(3)pollution in China based on relevant study results,and finally pointed out the shortcomings and future development prospects in this field in China.The overview study showed that the O_(3)formation sensitivity in some urban areas in China in recent years presented a gradual shifting tendency from the VOC-limited regime to the transition regime or the NO_(x)-limited regime due to the implementation of the O_(3)precursors emission reduction policies;O_(3)pollution control strategies and precursor control countermeasures should be formulated based on local conditions and the dynamic control capability of O_(3)pollution control measures should be improved.There are still some current deficiencies in the study field in China.Therefore,it is recommended that a stereoscopic monitoring network for atmospheric photochemical components should be further constructed and improved;the atmospheric chemical mechanisms should be vigorously developed,and standardized methods for determining the O_(3)formation sensitivity should be established in China in the near future.展开更多
The personal account of new rural social pension insurance raises funds in the form of individual premium-paying,collectively pooled subsidy and government subsidy.The personal account accumulated value has a decisive...The personal account of new rural social pension insurance raises funds in the form of individual premium-paying,collectively pooled subsidy and government subsidy.The personal account accumulated value has a decisive influence on the payment level of personal account pension.The personal account accumulated value has a direct or indirect relationship with the income level of farmers,premium-paying level,the insured period,investment return rate of funds and other factors.Analysing the impact of infinitesimal variation of these factors on accumulated value of personal account pension,is of great significance to improving and consolidating personal account,and achieving sustainable development of new rural social pension insurance.展开更多
Systemreliability sensitivity analysis becomes difficult due to involving the issues of the correlation between failure modes whether using analytic method or numerical simulation methods.A fast conditional reduction ...Systemreliability sensitivity analysis becomes difficult due to involving the issues of the correlation between failure modes whether using analytic method or numerical simulation methods.A fast conditional reduction method based on conditional probability theory is proposed to solve the sensitivity analysis based on the approximate analytic method.The relevant concepts are introduced to characterize the correlation between failure modes by the reliability index and correlation coefficient,and conditional normal fractile the for the multi-dimensional conditional failure analysis is proposed based on the two-dimensional normal distribution function.Thus the calculation of system failure probability can be represented as a summation of conditional probability terms,which is convenient to be computed by iterative solving sequentially.Further the system sensitivity solution is transformed into the derivation process of the failure probability correlation coefficient of each failure mode.Numerical examples results show that it is feasible to apply the idea of failure mode relevancy to failure probability sensitivity analysis,and it can avoid multi-dimension integral calculation and reduce complexity and difficulty.Compared with the product of conditional marginalmethod,a wider value range of correlation coefficient for reliability analysis is confirmed and an acceptable accuracy can be obtained with less computational cost.展开更多
This paper is dedicated to applying the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test(FAST)method to the problem of mixed extension and inflation of a circular cylindrical tube in the presence of residual stresses.The metafuncti...This paper is dedicated to applying the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test(FAST)method to the problem of mixed extension and inflation of a circular cylindrical tube in the presence of residual stresses.The metafunctions and the Ishigami function are considered in the sensitivity analysis(SA).The effects of the input variables on the output variables are investigated,and the most important parameters of the system under the applied pressure and axial force such as the axial stretch and the azimuthal stretch are determined.展开更多
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52174123&52274222).
文摘This paper presents a framework for constructing surrogate models for sensitivity analysis of structural dynamics behavior.Physical models involving deformation,such as collisions,vibrations,and penetration,are devel-oped using the material point method.To reduce the computational cost of Monte Carlo simulations,response surface models are created as surrogate models for the material point system to approximate its dynamic behavior.An adaptive randomized greedy algorithm is employed to construct a sparse polynomial chaos expansion model with a fixed order,effectively balancing the accuracy and computational efficiency of the surrogate model.Based on the sparse polynomial chaos expansion,sensitivity analysis is conducted using the global finite difference and Sobol methods.Several examples of structural dynamics are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in addressing structural dynamics problems.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40572141).
文摘Predicting long-term potential human health risks from contaminants in the multimedia environment requires the use of models. However, there is uncertainty associated with these predictions of many parameters which can be represented by ranges or probability distributions rather than single value. Based on a case study with information from an actual site contaminated with benzene, this study describes the application of MMSOILS model to predict health risk and distributions of those predictions generated using Monte Carlo techniques. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate which of the random variables are most important in producing the predicted distributions of health risks. The sensitivity analysis shows that the predicted distributions can be accurately reproduced using a small subset of the random variables. The practical implication of this analysis is the ability to distinguish between important versus unimportant random variables in terms of their sensitivity to selected endpoints. This directly translates into a reduction in data collection and modeling effort. It was demonstrated that how correlation coefficient could be used to evaluate contributions to overall uncertainty from each parameter. The integrated uncertainty analysis shows that although drinking groundwater risk is similar with inhalation air risk, uncertainties of total risk come dominantly from drinking groundwater route. Most percent of the variance of total risk comes from four random variables.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (10572117,10802063,50875213)Aeronautical Science Foundation of China (2007ZA53012)+1 种基金New Century Program For Excellent Talents of Ministry of Education of China (NCET-05-0868)National High-tech Research and Development Program (2007AA04Z401)
文摘Combining the advantages of the stratified sampling and the importance sampling, a stratified importance sampling method （SISM） is presented to analyze the reliability sensitivity for structure with multiple failure modes. In the presented method, the variable space is divided into several disjoint subspace by n-dimensional coordinate planes at the mean point of the random vec- tor, and the importance sampling functions in the subspaces are constructed by keeping the sampling center at the mean point and augmenting the standard deviation by a factor of 2. The sample size generated from the importance sampling function in each subspace is determined by the contribution of the subspace to the reliability sensitivity, which can be estimated by iterative simulation in the sampling process. The formulae of the reliability sensitivity estimation, the variance and the coefficient of variation are derived for the presented SISM. Comparing with the Monte Carlo method, the stratified sampling method and the importance sampling method, the presented SISM has wider applicability and higher calculation efficiency, which is demonstrated by numerical examples. Finally, the reliability sensitivity analysis of flap structure is illustrated that the SISM can be applied to engineering structure.
基金supported by the Key National Science and Technology Special Project on"Hign-Grade CNC Machine Tools and Basic Manufacturing Equipments"(No.2010ZX04014-014)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50875039)the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University
文摘Based on the random perturbation technique for reliability sensitivity design,some realistic reliability-based sensitivity issues are discussed,some of which have a structure of high nonlinear performance functions.Combining the related theories of the moment method of the reliability analysis,the matrix differential,and the Kronecker algebra,the reliability-based sensitivity method based on the perturbation method is modified if the first four moments of random variables are given.Meanwhile,a reliability-based sensitivity computation method is proposed.Some examples are used to show that using this method can effectively improve the accuracy of the reliability-based sensitivity computation and offer a reliable theoretic basis in engineering.
基金supported by National Key Basic Research Program (973 Program, Grant No. 2011CB706804)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50805093)Science & Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality, China (Grant No. 09QH1401500)
文摘As one of the bases of gradient-based optimization algorithms, sensitivity analysis is usually required to calculate the derivatives of the system response with respect to the machining parameters. The most widely used approaches for sensitivity analysis are based on time-consuming numerical methods, such as finite difference methods. This paper presents a semi-analytical method for calculation of the sensitivity of the stability boundary in milling. After transforming the delay-differential equation with time-periodic coefficients governing the dynamic milling process into the integral form, the Floquet transition matrix is constructed by using the numerical integration method. Then, the analytical expressions of derivatives of the Floquet transition matrix with respect to the machining parameters are obtained. Thereafter, the classical analytical expression of the sensitivity of matrix eigenvalues is employed to calculate the sensitivity of the stability lobe diagram. The two-degree-of-freedom milling example illustrates the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method. Compared with the existing methods, the unique merit of the proposed method is that it can be used for analytically computing the sensitivity of the stability boundary in milling, without employing any finite difference methods. Therefore, the high accuracy and high efficiency are both achieved. The proposed method can serve as an effective tool for machining parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis in high-speed milling.
基金Foundation items： National Natural Science Foundation of China （NSFC 10572117） National High-tech Research and Development Program （2007AA04Z401）+1 种基金 New Century Program for Excellent Talents of Ministry of Education of China （NCET-05-0868） Aeronautical Science Foundation of China （2007ZA53012）
文摘For a degradable structural system with fuzzy failure region, a moment method based on fuzzy reliability sensitivity algorithm is presented. According to the value assignment of performance function, the integral region for calculating the fuzzy failure probability is first split into a series of subregions in which the membership function values of the performance function within the fuzzy failure region can be approximated by a set of constants. The fuzzy failure probability is then transformed into a sum of products of the random failure probabilities and the approximate constants of the membership function in the subregions. Furthermore, the fuzzy reliability sensitivity analysis is transformed into a series of random reliability sensitivity analysis, and the random reliability sensitivity can be obtained by the constructed moment method. The primary advantages of the presented method include higher efficiency for implicit performance function with low and medium dimensionality and wide applicability to multiple failure modes and nonnormal basic random variables. The limitation is that the required computation effort grows exponentially with the increase of dimensionality of the basic random vari- able; hence, it is not suitable for high dimensionality problem. Compared with the available methods, the presented one is pretty competitive in the case that the dimensionality is lower than 10. The presented examples are used to verify the advantages and indicate the limitations.
文摘Cavity resonance noise of passenger car tires is generated by interacting excitation between a tire structure and the fill gas (air), and generally lies in a frequency range of 200?250 Hz. As such, this noise is strongly perceived and may be a serious source of driver annoyance. Thus, many studies regarding the cavity noise mechanism and its reduction have already been conducted. In this work, a vibro-acoustic coupled analysis was conducted between a tire structure and air cavity. Using this analysis, we can more accurately simulate the tire noise performance in the region of the cavity resonance frequency. An analysis of the effects of variation of tire contour design factors was conducted, using design-of-experiments methods. Finally, a multi-objective optimization was performed using in-house codes to reduce the cavity noise level while minimizing the loss of other performances, such as diminished ride comfort and handling caused by the variations of contour. As a result of this optimization, an optimized contour shape was derived, which satisfied the multi-objective performances.
文摘Key methods developed and used in the USSR and in the Russian Federation to determine the impact and friction sensitivity of energetic materials and explosives have been discussed.Experimental methodologies and instruments that underlie the assessment of their production and handling safety have been described.Studies of a large number of compounds have revealed relationships between their sensitivity parameters and structure of individual compounds and compositions.The range of change of physical and chemical characteristics for the compounds we examined covers the entire region of their existence.Theoretical methodology and equations have been formulated to estimate the impact and friction sensitivity parameters of energetic materials and to evaluate the technological safety in use.The developed methodology is characterized by high-accuracy calculations and prediction of sensitivity parameters.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11772113)。
文摘To reduce the risk of mission failure caused by the MM/OD impact of the spacecraft,it is necessary to optimize the design of the spacecraft.Spacecraft survivability assessment is the key technology in the optimal design of spacecraft.Spacecraft survivability assessment includes spacecraft impact sensitivity analysis and spacecraft component vulnerability analysis under MM/OD environment.The impact sensitivity refers to the probability of a spacecraft encountering an MM/OD impact while in orbit.Vulnerability refers to the probability that each component of a spacecraft may fail or malfunction when impacted by space debris.Yet this paper mainly analyzes the impact sensitivity and proposes a spacecraft sensitivity assessment method under the MM/OD environment based on a panel method.Under this panel method,a spacecraft geometric model is discretized into small panels,and whether they are impacted by MM/OD or not is determined through the analysis of the shielding or shadowing relationships between panels.The number of impacts on each panel is obtained through calculation,and accordingly the probability of each spacecraft component encountering MM/OD impact can be acquired,thus generating the impact sensibility.This paper extracts data from the NASA’s ORDEM2000,the ESA’s MASTER8 as well as the SDEEM2015(Space Debris Environmental Engineering Model developed by HIT),and uses the PCHIP(Piecewise Cubic Hermite Interpolating Polynomial)method to interpolate and fit the size-flux relationship of space debris.Compared with linear interpolation and cubic spline interpolation,the fitting results through the method are relatively more accurate.The feasibility of this method is also demonstrated through two actual examples shown in this paper,whose results are close to those from ESABASE,although there are some minor errors mainly due to different debris data input.Through the cross-check by three risk assessment software-BUMPER,MDPANTO and MODAOST-under standard operating conditions,the feasibility of this method is again verified.
文摘In watersheds that have not sufficient meteorological and hydrometric data for simulating rainfall-runoff events, using geomorphologic and geomorphoclimatic characteristics of watershed is a conventional method for the simulation. A number of rainfall-runoff models utilize these characteristics such as Nash-IUH, Clark-IUH, Geomorphologic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GIUH), Geomorphoclimatic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GcIUH), GIUH-based Nash(GIUH-Nash) and GcIUH-based Clark(GcIUH-Clark). But all these models are not appropriate for mountainous watersheds. Therefore, the objective of this study is to select the best of them for the simulation. The procedure of this study is: a) selecting appropriate rainfall-runoff events for calibration and validation of six hybrid models, b) distinguishing the best model based on different performance criteria(Percentage Error in Volume(PEV); Percentage Error in Peak(PEP); Percentage Error in Time to Peak(PETP); Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient(ENS)), c) Sensitivity analysis for determination of the most effective parameter at each model, d) Uncertainty determination of different parameters in each model and confirmation of the obtained results by application of the performance criteria. For application of this procedure, the Navrood watershed in the north of Iran as a mountainous watershed has been considered. The results showed that the ClarkIUH and GcIUH-Clark are suitable models for simulation of flood hydrographs, while other models cannot simulate flood hydrographs appropriately. The sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameters are the infiltration constant rate and time of concentration in the Clark-IUH model. Also, the most sensitive parameters include the infiltration constant rate and storage coefficient in the GcIUHClark model. The Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models are more sensitive to their parameters. The Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) on Monte Carlo(MC) simulation method was used for evaluation of uncertainty of data in rainfall-runoff models. In this method 500 sets of data values are produced and then the peak discharge of flood hydrographs for each produced data set is simulated with rainfall-runoff models. The uncertainty of data changes the value of simulated peak discharge of flood hydrograph. The uncertainty analysis shows that the observed peak discharges of different rainfall-runoff events are within the range of values of simulated by the six hybrid rainfall-runoff models and IUH that inputs of these models were the produced data sets. The range of the produced peak discharge of flood hydrographs by the Clark-IUH and GcIUH-Clark models is wider than those of other models.
基金funded by the Marine Public Welfare Pro-ject of China (Nos. 200705029, 200805080)the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2002CB412406)SOA-funded Program (No. 908-02-04-03)
文摘Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology,is fundamentally dependent on the flow of ecosystem services. Marine ecosystem services become increasingly valuable as the terrestrial resources become scarce. The value of marine ecosystem services is the monetary flow of ecosystem services on specific temporal and spatial scales,which often changes due to the variation of the goods prices,yields and the status of marine exploitation. Sensitivity analysis is to study the relationship between the value of marine ecosystem services and the main factors which affect it. Uncertainty analysis based on varying prices,yields and status of marine exploitation was carried out. Through uncertainty analysis,a more credible value range instead of a fixed value of marine ecosystem services was obtained in this study. Moreover,sensitivity analysis of the marine ecosystem services value revealed the relative importance of different factors.
文摘With the development of satellite structure technology, more and more design parameters will affect its structural performance. It is desirable to obtain an optimal structure design with a minimum weight, including optimal configuration and sizes. The present paper aims to describe an optimization analysis for a satellite structure, including topology optimization and size optimization. Based on the homogenization method, the topology optimization is carried out for the main supporting frame of service module under given constraints and load conditions, and then the sensitivity analysis is made of 15 structural size parameters of the whole satellite and the optimal sizes are obtained. The numerical result shows that the present optimization design method is very effective.
基金The funding was provided by Laboratory Fund (Grant No.SYJJ200320).
文摘This paper aims to solve the resonance failure probability and develop an effective method to estimate the effects of variables and failure modes on failure probability of axially functionally graded material(FGM)pipe conveying fluid.Correspondingly,the natural frequency of axially FGM pipes conveying fluid is calculated using the differential quadrature method(DQM).A variable sensitivity analysis(VSA)is introduced to measure the effect of each random variable,and a mode sensitivity analysis(MSA)is introduced to acquire the importance ranking of failure modes.Then,an active learning Kriging(ALK)method is established to calculate the resonance failure probability and sensitivity indices,which greatly improves the application of resonance reliability analysis for pipelines in engineering practice.Based on the resonance reliability analysis method,the effects of fluid velocity,volume fraction and fluid density of axially FGM pipe conveying fluid on resonance reliability are analyzed.The results demonstrate that the proposed method has great performance in the anti-resonance analysis of pipes conveying fluid.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52109144,52025094 and 52222905).
文摘This paper introduces a novel approach for parameter sensitivity evaluation and efficient slope reliability analysis based on quantile-based first-order second-moment method(QFOSM).The core principles of the QFOSM are elucidated geometrically from the perspective of expanding ellipsoids.Based on this geometric interpretation,the QFOSM is further extended to estimate sensitivity indices and assess the significance of various uncertain parameters involved in the slope system.The proposed method has the advantage of computational simplicity,akin to the conventional first-order second-moment method(FOSM),while providing estimation accuracy close to that of the first-order reliability method(FORM).Its performance is demonstrated with a numerical example and three slope examples.The results show that the proposed method can efficiently estimate the slope reliability and simultaneously evaluate the sensitivity of the uncertain parameters.The proposed method does not involve complex optimization or iteration required by the FORM.It can provide a valuable complement to the existing approximate reliability analysis methods,offering rapid sensitivity evaluation and slope reliability analysis.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52079120).
文摘The anti-sliding stability of a gravity dam along its foundation surface is a key problem in the design of gravity dams.In this study,a sensitivity analysis framework was proposed for investigating the factors affecting gravity dam anti-sliding stability along the foundation surface.According to the design specifications,the loads and factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam were comprehensively selected.Afterwards,the sensitivity of the factors was preliminarily analyzed using the Sobol method with Latin hypercube sampling.Then,the results of the sensitivity analysis were verified with those obtained using the Garson method.Finally,the effects of different sampling methods,probability distribution types of factor samples,and ranges of factor values on the analysis results were evaluated.A case study of a typical gravity dam in Yunnan Province of China showed that the dominant factors affecting the gravity dam anti-sliding stability were the anti-shear cohesion,upstream and downstream water levels,anti-shear friction coefficient,uplift pressure reduction coefficient,concrete density,and silt height.Choice of sampling methods showed no significant effect,but the probability distribution type and the range of factor values greatly affected the analysis results.Therefore,these two elements should be sufficiently considered to improve the reliability of the dam anti-sliding stability analysis.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11702281)the Science Challenge Project(TZ2018007)the Technology Foundation Project of State Administration of Science,Technology and Industry for National Defence,PRC(JSZL2017212A001)
文摘For the system with the fuzzy failure state, the effects of the input random variables and the fuzzy failure state on the fuzzy probability of failure for the structural system are studied, and the moment-independence global sensitivity analysis（GSA） model is proposed to quantitatively measure these effects. According to the fuzzy random theory, the fuzzy failure state is transformed into an equivalent new random variable for the system, and the complementary function of the membership function of the fuzzy failure state is defined as the cumulative distribution function（CDF） of the new random variable. After introducing the new random variable, the equivalent performance function of the original problem is built. The difference between the unconditional fuzzy probability of failure and conditional fuzzy probability of failure is defined as the moment-independent GSA index. In order to solve the proposed GSA index efficiently, the Kriging-based algorithm is developed to estimate the defined moment-independence GSA index. Two engineering examples are employed to verify the feasibility and rationality of the presented GSA model, and the advantages of the developed Kriging method are also illustrated.
基金supported by the National Research Program for Key Issues in Air Pollution Control(No.DQGG202121)the Beijing Municipal Science&Technology Commission(No.Z181100005418015)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42075094)the National Research Program for Key Issue in Air Pollution Control(No.DQGG2021101)。
文摘Observation-based method for O_(3)formation sensitivity research is an important tool to analyze the causes of ground-level O_(3)pollution,which has broad application potentials in determining the O_(3)pollution formation mechanism and developing prevention and control strategies.This paper outlined the development history of research on O_(3)formation sensitivity based on observational methods,described the principle and applicability of the methodology,summarized the relative application results in China and provided recommendations on the prevention and control of O_(3)pollution in China based on relevant study results,and finally pointed out the shortcomings and future development prospects in this field in China.The overview study showed that the O_(3)formation sensitivity in some urban areas in China in recent years presented a gradual shifting tendency from the VOC-limited regime to the transition regime or the NO_(x)-limited regime due to the implementation of the O_(3)precursors emission reduction policies;O_(3)pollution control strategies and precursor control countermeasures should be formulated based on local conditions and the dynamic control capability of O_(3)pollution control measures should be improved.There are still some current deficiencies in the study field in China.Therefore,it is recommended that a stereoscopic monitoring network for atmospheric photochemical components should be further constructed and improved;the atmospheric chemical mechanisms should be vigorously developed,and standardized methods for determining the O_(3)formation sensitivity should be established in China in the near future.
基金Supported by Scientific Research Project of Hunan Provincial Department of Education(11C1180)
文摘The personal account of new rural social pension insurance raises funds in the form of individual premium-paying,collectively pooled subsidy and government subsidy.The personal account accumulated value has a decisive influence on the payment level of personal account pension.The personal account accumulated value has a direct or indirect relationship with the income level of farmers,premium-paying level,the insured period,investment return rate of funds and other factors.Analysing the impact of infinitesimal variation of these factors on accumulated value of personal account pension,is of great significance to improving and consolidating personal account,and achieving sustainable development of new rural social pension insurance.
基金This research is supported by National Key Research and Development Project(Grant Number 2019YFD0901002)Also Natural Science Foundation of Liaoning Province(Grant Number 20170540105)Liaoning Province Education Foundation(Grant Number JL201913)are gratefully acknowledged.
文摘Systemreliability sensitivity analysis becomes difficult due to involving the issues of the correlation between failure modes whether using analytic method or numerical simulation methods.A fast conditional reduction method based on conditional probability theory is proposed to solve the sensitivity analysis based on the approximate analytic method.The relevant concepts are introduced to characterize the correlation between failure modes by the reliability index and correlation coefficient,and conditional normal fractile the for the multi-dimensional conditional failure analysis is proposed based on the two-dimensional normal distribution function.Thus the calculation of system failure probability can be represented as a summation of conditional probability terms,which is convenient to be computed by iterative solving sequentially.Further the system sensitivity solution is transformed into the derivation process of the failure probability correlation coefficient of each failure mode.Numerical examples results show that it is feasible to apply the idea of failure mode relevancy to failure probability sensitivity analysis,and it can avoid multi-dimension integral calculation and reduce complexity and difficulty.Compared with the product of conditional marginalmethod,a wider value range of correlation coefficient for reliability analysis is confirmed and an acceptable accuracy can be obtained with less computational cost.
文摘This paper is dedicated to applying the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test(FAST)method to the problem of mixed extension and inflation of a circular cylindrical tube in the presence of residual stresses.The metafunctions and the Ishigami function are considered in the sensitivity analysis(SA).The effects of the input variables on the output variables are investigated,and the most important parameters of the system under the applied pressure and axial force such as the axial stretch and the azimuthal stretch are determined.
