Warhead power assessment of the anti-ship missile plays a vital role in determining the optimal design of missile, thus having important strategic research significance. However, in the assessment process, expert’s j...Warhead power assessment of the anti-ship missile plays a vital role in determining the optimal design of missile, thus having important strategic research significance. However, in the assessment process, expert’s judgement will directly affect the assessment accuracy. In addition,there are many criteria involved in the missile design alternatives. Some criteria with poor performance may be compensated by other criteria with excellent performance, and then it is impossible to find the truly optimal alternative. Aimed at solving these problems, this paper proposes a synthetical assessment process based on fuzzy hesitant linguistic term set and the Gained and Lost Dominance Score(GLDS) method. In order to improve the assessment accuracy of experts and solve the problem that experts generate different opinions, combined with the advantages of fuzzy hesitant sets and linguistic term sets, the double hierarchy hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets are used in this paper to improve the accuracy of expert’s judgement. In order to effectively combine expert’s experience with the data of criteria, the evidence theory and entropy weight method are used to transfer the expert’s judgement to the weight. In order to avoid selecting defective alternative of missile design, the GLDS is used to fuse expert information and criteria information. Sensitivity analysis shows that the assessment process has sensitivity to some extent. However, when the fluctuation of expert’s assessment makes the fluctuation of θ in the range of-5% to 5%, the impact on the results is not quite conspicuous. The analysis of calculation result and comparative analysis show that the assessment process proposed in this paper is accurate enough, has great advantage in selecting the current and potential optimal alternative of missile design, and avoids the alternatives with low criteria performance that cannot be compensated by other criteria being selected.展开更多
BACKGROUND Although substantial evidence supports the advantages of cold snare polypectomy(CSP)in terms of polypectomy efficacy and reduced postoperative adverse events,few studies have examined the cost differences b...BACKGROUND Although substantial evidence supports the advantages of cold snare polypectomy(CSP)in terms of polypectomy efficacy and reduced postoperative adverse events,few studies have examined the cost differences between CSP and traditional endoscopic mucosal resection(EMR)for the treatment of intestinal polyps.AIM To compare the efficacy-cost of EMR and CSP in the treatment of intestinal polyps.METHODS A total of 100 patients with intestinal polyps were included in the retrospective data of our hospital from April 2022 to May 2023.According to the treatment methods,they were divided into EMR(n=46)group and CSP(n=54)group.The baseline data of the two groups were balanced by 1:1 propensity score matching(PSM),and the cost-effectiveness analysis was performed on the two groups after matching.The recurrence rate of the two groups of patients was followed up for 1 year,and they were divided into recurrence group and non-recurrence group according to whether they recurred.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen out the influencing factors affecting the recurrence of intestinal polyps after endoscopic resection.RESULTS Significant disparities were observed in the number of polyps and smoking background between the two groups before PSM(P<0.05).Following PSM,the number of polyps and smoking history were well balanced between the EMR and CSP groups.The direct cost incurred by the CSP group was markedly higher than that incurred by the EMR group.Concurrently,the cost-effectiveness ratio in the CSP group was substantially reduced when juxtaposed with that in the EMR group(P<0.05).Upon completion of the 1-year follow-up,the rate of recurrence after endoscopic intestinal polypectomy was 38.00%.Multivariate methods revealed that age≥60 years,male sex,number of polyps≥3,and pathological type of adenoma were risk factors for recurrence after endoscopic intestinal polypectomy(all P<0.05).CONCLUSION CSP was more cost-effective for the treatment of intestinal polyps.An age≥60 years,male sex,having a number of polyps≥3,and pathological type of adenoma are independent influencing factors for recurrence.展开更多
Selecting which explanatory variables to include in a given score is a common difficulty, as a balance must be found between statistical fit and practical application. This article presents a methodology for construct...Selecting which explanatory variables to include in a given score is a common difficulty, as a balance must be found between statistical fit and practical application. This article presents a methodology for constructing parsimonious event risk scores combining a stepwise selection of variables with ensemble scores obtained by aggregation of several scores, using several classifiers, bootstrap samples and various modalities of random selection of variables. Selection methods based on a probabilistic model can be used to achieve a stepwise selection for a given classifier such as logistic regression, but not directly for an ensemble classifier constructed by aggregation of several classifiers. Three selection methods are proposed in this framework, two involving a backward selection of the variables based on their coefficients in an ensemble score and the third involving a forward selection of the variables maximizing the AUC. The stepwise selection allows constructing a succession of scores, with the practitioner able to choose which score best fits his needs. These three methods are compared in an application to construct parsimonious short-term event risk scores in chronic HF patients, using as event the composite endpoint of death or hospitalization for worsening HF within 180 days of a visit. Focusing on the fastest method, four scores are constructed, yielding out-of-bag AUCs ranging from 0.81 (26 variables) to 0.76 (2 variables).展开更多
文摘Warhead power assessment of the anti-ship missile plays a vital role in determining the optimal design of missile, thus having important strategic research significance. However, in the assessment process, expert’s judgement will directly affect the assessment accuracy. In addition,there are many criteria involved in the missile design alternatives. Some criteria with poor performance may be compensated by other criteria with excellent performance, and then it is impossible to find the truly optimal alternative. Aimed at solving these problems, this paper proposes a synthetical assessment process based on fuzzy hesitant linguistic term set and the Gained and Lost Dominance Score(GLDS) method. In order to improve the assessment accuracy of experts and solve the problem that experts generate different opinions, combined with the advantages of fuzzy hesitant sets and linguistic term sets, the double hierarchy hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets are used in this paper to improve the accuracy of expert’s judgement. In order to effectively combine expert’s experience with the data of criteria, the evidence theory and entropy weight method are used to transfer the expert’s judgement to the weight. In order to avoid selecting defective alternative of missile design, the GLDS is used to fuse expert information and criteria information. Sensitivity analysis shows that the assessment process has sensitivity to some extent. However, when the fluctuation of expert’s assessment makes the fluctuation of θ in the range of-5% to 5%, the impact on the results is not quite conspicuous. The analysis of calculation result and comparative analysis show that the assessment process proposed in this paper is accurate enough, has great advantage in selecting the current and potential optimal alternative of missile design, and avoids the alternatives with low criteria performance that cannot be compensated by other criteria being selected.
文摘BACKGROUND Although substantial evidence supports the advantages of cold snare polypectomy(CSP)in terms of polypectomy efficacy and reduced postoperative adverse events,few studies have examined the cost differences between CSP and traditional endoscopic mucosal resection(EMR)for the treatment of intestinal polyps.AIM To compare the efficacy-cost of EMR and CSP in the treatment of intestinal polyps.METHODS A total of 100 patients with intestinal polyps were included in the retrospective data of our hospital from April 2022 to May 2023.According to the treatment methods,they were divided into EMR(n=46)group and CSP(n=54)group.The baseline data of the two groups were balanced by 1:1 propensity score matching(PSM),and the cost-effectiveness analysis was performed on the two groups after matching.The recurrence rate of the two groups of patients was followed up for 1 year,and they were divided into recurrence group and non-recurrence group according to whether they recurred.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen out the influencing factors affecting the recurrence of intestinal polyps after endoscopic resection.RESULTS Significant disparities were observed in the number of polyps and smoking background between the two groups before PSM(P<0.05).Following PSM,the number of polyps and smoking history were well balanced between the EMR and CSP groups.The direct cost incurred by the CSP group was markedly higher than that incurred by the EMR group.Concurrently,the cost-effectiveness ratio in the CSP group was substantially reduced when juxtaposed with that in the EMR group(P<0.05).Upon completion of the 1-year follow-up,the rate of recurrence after endoscopic intestinal polypectomy was 38.00%.Multivariate methods revealed that age≥60 years,male sex,number of polyps≥3,and pathological type of adenoma were risk factors for recurrence after endoscopic intestinal polypectomy(all P<0.05).CONCLUSION CSP was more cost-effective for the treatment of intestinal polyps.An age≥60 years,male sex,having a number of polyps≥3,and pathological type of adenoma are independent influencing factors for recurrence.
文摘Selecting which explanatory variables to include in a given score is a common difficulty, as a balance must be found between statistical fit and practical application. This article presents a methodology for constructing parsimonious event risk scores combining a stepwise selection of variables with ensemble scores obtained by aggregation of several scores, using several classifiers, bootstrap samples and various modalities of random selection of variables. Selection methods based on a probabilistic model can be used to achieve a stepwise selection for a given classifier such as logistic regression, but not directly for an ensemble classifier constructed by aggregation of several classifiers. Three selection methods are proposed in this framework, two involving a backward selection of the variables based on their coefficients in an ensemble score and the third involving a forward selection of the variables maximizing the AUC. The stepwise selection allows constructing a succession of scores, with the practitioner able to choose which score best fits his needs. These three methods are compared in an application to construct parsimonious short-term event risk scores in chronic HF patients, using as event the composite endpoint of death or hospitalization for worsening HF within 180 days of a visit. Focusing on the fastest method, four scores are constructed, yielding out-of-bag AUCs ranging from 0.81 (26 variables) to 0.76 (2 variables).
