Piecewise linear regression models are very flexible models for modeling the data. If the piecewise linear regression models are matched against the data, then the parameters are generally not known. This paper studie...Piecewise linear regression models are very flexible models for modeling the data. If the piecewise linear regression models are matched against the data, then the parameters are generally not known. This paper studies the problem of parameter estimation ofpiecewise linear regression models. The method used to estimate the parameters ofpicewise linear regression models is Bayesian method. But the Bayes estimator can not be found analytically. To overcome these problems, the reversible jump MCMC （Marcov Chain Monte Carlo） algorithm is proposed. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of the parameters ofpicewise linear regression models. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of picewise linear regression models.展开更多
A Bayesian estimation method to separate multicomponent signals with single channel observation is presented in this paper. By using the basis function projection, the component separation becomes a problem of limited...A Bayesian estimation method to separate multicomponent signals with single channel observation is presented in this paper. By using the basis function projection, the component separation becomes a problem of limited parameter estimation. Then, a Bayesian model for estimating parameters is set up. The reversible jump MCMC （Monte Carlo Markov Chain） algorithmis adopted to perform the Bayesian computation. The method can jointly estimate the parameters of each component and the component number. Simulation results demonstrate that the method has low SNR threshold and better performance.展开更多
The paper presents a stochastic and economic analysis for petroleum development under uncertain market and technical environments. Mean-reversion with jumps for price forecasting is used to consider market uncertainty...The paper presents a stochastic and economic analysis for petroleum development under uncertain market and technical environments. Mean-reversion with jumps for price forecasting is used to consider market uncertainty, while various scenarios for the reservoir properties and cost are employed to consider technical uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to obtain the feasible range of net present values and internal rates of return. The influence of stochastic parameters is examined through correlation coefficients. The stochastic approach yields more reliable evaluation and effectively investigates the characteristics of development. The integration of uncertainties and contractual terms results in an irregular tendency in the future cash flow and reveals that a larger reserve does not guarantee a greater profit. The reserve and the well rate affect the economic values whereas the parameters for price prediction don＇t. The research confirms the necessity of qualifying uncertainties for realistic decision-making at the initial stage of development.展开更多
The conditional autoregressive model is a routinely used statistical model for areal data thatarise from, for instances, epidemiological, socio-economic or ecological studies. Various multivariate conditional autoregr...The conditional autoregressive model is a routinely used statistical model for areal data thatarise from, for instances, epidemiological, socio-economic or ecological studies. Various multivariate conditional autoregressive models have also been extensively studied in the literatureand it has been shown that extending from the univariate case to the multivariate case is nottrivial. The difficulties lie in many aspects, including validity, interpretability, flexibility and computational feasibility of the model. In this paper, we approach the multivariate modelling froman element-based perspective instead of the traditional vector-based perspective. We focus onthe joint adjacency structure of elements and discuss graphical structures for both the spatialand non-spatial domains. We assume that the graph for the spatial domain is generally knownand fixed while the graph for the non-spatial domain can be unknown and random. We proposea very general specification for the multivariate conditional modelling and then focus on threespecial cases, which are linked to well-known models in the literature. Bayesian inference forparameter learning and graph learning is provided for the focused cases, and finally, an examplewith public health data is illustrated.展开更多
文摘Piecewise linear regression models are very flexible models for modeling the data. If the piecewise linear regression models are matched against the data, then the parameters are generally not known. This paper studies the problem of parameter estimation ofpiecewise linear regression models. The method used to estimate the parameters ofpicewise linear regression models is Bayesian method. But the Bayes estimator can not be found analytically. To overcome these problems, the reversible jump MCMC （Marcov Chain Monte Carlo） algorithm is proposed. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of the parameters ofpicewise linear regression models. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of picewise linear regression models.
文摘A Bayesian estimation method to separate multicomponent signals with single channel observation is presented in this paper. By using the basis function projection, the component separation becomes a problem of limited parameter estimation. Then, a Bayesian model for estimating parameters is set up. The reversible jump MCMC （Monte Carlo Markov Chain） algorithmis adopted to perform the Bayesian computation. The method can jointly estimate the parameters of each component and the component number. Simulation results demonstrate that the method has low SNR threshold and better performance.
文摘The paper presents a stochastic and economic analysis for petroleum development under uncertain market and technical environments. Mean-reversion with jumps for price forecasting is used to consider market uncertainty, while various scenarios for the reservoir properties and cost are employed to consider technical uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to obtain the feasible range of net present values and internal rates of return. The influence of stochastic parameters is examined through correlation coefficients. The stochastic approach yields more reliable evaluation and effectively investigates the characteristics of development. The integration of uncertainties and contractual terms results in an irregular tendency in the future cash flow and reveals that a larger reserve does not guarantee a greater profit. The reserve and the well rate affect the economic values whereas the parameters for price prediction don＇t. The research confirms the necessity of qualifying uncertainties for realistic decision-making at the initial stage of development.
文摘The conditional autoregressive model is a routinely used statistical model for areal data thatarise from, for instances, epidemiological, socio-economic or ecological studies. Various multivariate conditional autoregressive models have also been extensively studied in the literatureand it has been shown that extending from the univariate case to the multivariate case is nottrivial. The difficulties lie in many aspects, including validity, interpretability, flexibility and computational feasibility of the model. In this paper, we approach the multivariate modelling froman element-based perspective instead of the traditional vector-based perspective. We focus onthe joint adjacency structure of elements and discuss graphical structures for both the spatialand non-spatial domains. We assume that the graph for the spatial domain is generally knownand fixed while the graph for the non-spatial domain can be unknown and random. We proposea very general specification for the multivariate conditional modelling and then focus on threespecial cases, which are linked to well-known models in the literature. Bayesian inference forparameter learning and graph learning is provided for the focused cases, and finally, an examplewith public health data is illustrated.
