In this paper, the Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Model is developed and extended using machine learning. The traditional actuarial reserving techniques are no longer compatible with the increase in technological ...In this paper, the Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Model is developed and extended using machine learning. The traditional actuarial reserving techniques are no longer compatible with the increase in technological advancement currently at hand. As a result, the development of the alternative Artificial Intelligence Based Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Methodology which captures diverse risk profiles for various policyholders through augmenting the Micro Finance services, Auto Insurance Services and Both Services lines of business on the same platform through the computation of the Comprehensive Automated Actuarial Loss Reserves (CAALR) has been implemented in this paper. The introduction of the four further types of actuarial loss reserves to those existing in the actuarial literature seems to significantly reduce lapse rates, reduce the reinsurance costs as well as expenses and outgo. As a matter of consequence, this helps to bring together a combination of new and existing policyholders in the insurance company. The frequency severity models have been extended in this paper using ten machine learning algorithms which ultimately leads to the derivation of the proposed machine learning-based actuarial loss reserving model which remarkably performed well when compared to the traditional chain ladder actuarial reserving method using simulated data.展开更多
We consider intrinsic gate capacitance variations due to random dopants in the nanometer metal oxide semi- conductor field effect transistor （MOSFET） channel. The variations of total gate capacitance and gate transc...We consider intrinsic gate capacitance variations due to random dopants in the nanometer metal oxide semi- conductor field effect transistor （MOSFET） channel. The variations of total gate capacitance and gate transcapacitances are investigated and the strong correlations between the trans-capacitance variations are discovered. A simple statistical model is proposed for accurately capturing total gate capacitance variability based on the correlations. The model fits very well with the Monte Carlo simulations and the average errors are -0.033% for n-type metal-oxide semiconductor and -0.012% for p-type metal-oxide semiconductor, respectively. Our simulation studies also indicate that, owing to these correlations, the total gate capacitance variability will not dominate in gate capacitance variations.展开更多
The idea of application from DNA information organization for providing the next generation super-computers has been proposed by lessons learned from nature. Thus, molecular environment of reserving information was co...The idea of application from DNA information organization for providing the next generation super-computers has been proposed by lessons learned from nature. Thus, molecular environment of reserving information was considered as succeeding generation of a mother-board project containing some subcategories with various applications. MERI, constructed based on the binary coding system using DNA synthesizer machine, enables retrievable reading of molecular structures using DNA sequencer machine. It has high capacity for reservation of information about 1.212 × 1011 Kb/cm2 with long-term stability. It can be used in various fields of science and technology regarding its high capacity, small size and safety measures.展开更多
“Treating vitality”and“ reserving vitality”are very important manipulations during acupuncture treatment of diseases.“Treating vitality” comprises adjusting and treating both the acupuncture doctor＇s and the pa...“Treating vitality”and“ reserving vitality”are very important manipulations during acupuncture treatment of diseases.“Treating vitality” comprises adjusting and treating both the acupuncture doctor＇s and the patient＇s vitality; while “reserving vitality” demands the acupuncture doctor carefully to experience the sensations of ＇excess＇ or ＇deficiency＇ under the needle, wait for the arrival of qi, observe the patient＇s responses, and then perform reducing or reinforcing needling manipulations in accordance with the state of excess-or deficiency-syndrome. “Treating vitality”and “reserving vitality” impenetrate the whole process of acupuncture treatment all along. Through years＇ clinical practice, the author of the present paper discusses the functions of the two aspects in every stage of acupuncture treatment, including before acupuncture, during needle insertion, during retention and withdrawal of the needle. The purpose of this paper is to explain the clinical significance of treating and reserving vitality and arouse many acupuncture doctors＇attention.展开更多
Of seventy-one patients with rectal cancer after radical resection retaining the anus, 15 developed local recurrence with a recurrence rate of 21.1%. Local recurrence was correlated with improper safety margin from th...Of seventy-one patients with rectal cancer after radical resection retaining the anus, 15 developed local recurrence with a recurrence rate of 21.1%. Local recurrence was correlated with improper safety margin from the lower edge of cancer to the anal end. There was statistical significant difference between 3 cm or more and 2 cm or less. The local recurrence was also related to the pathologic stage, histologic differentiation and implant of free cancer cells. It is suggested that the surgical indication of saving the anus be strict and without stretching, the safety margin from the lower edge of cancer to the anal end should not be less than 2 cm in early rectal cancer and not less than 4 cm in advanced lesions. During the operation, no touching tumor technique, thorough rinsing of the peritoneal cavity and pre- or post-operative radiotherapy are important for prevention of local recurrence. Early local recurrent rectal cancer can be detected by periodic examinations.展开更多
This study proposes a novel approach for estimating automobile insurance loss reserves utilizing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques integrated with actuarial data intelligence. The model aims to address the ch...This study proposes a novel approach for estimating automobile insurance loss reserves utilizing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques integrated with actuarial data intelligence. The model aims to address the challenges of accurately predicting insurance claim frequencies, severities, and overall loss reserves while accounting for inflation adjustments. Through comprehensive data analysis and model development, this research explores the effectiveness of ANN methodologies in capturing complex nonlinear relationships within insurance data. The study leverages a data set comprising automobile insurance policyholder information, claim history, and economic indicators to train and validate the ANN-based reserving model. Key aspects of the methodology include data preprocessing techniques such as one-hot encoding and scaling, followed by the construction of frequency, severity, and overall loss reserving models using ANN architectures. Moreover, the model incorporates inflation adjustment factors to ensure the accurate estimation of future loss reserves in real terms. Results from the study demonstrate the superior predictive performance of the ANN-based reserving model compared to traditional actuarial methods, with substantial improvements in accuracy and robustness. Furthermore, the model’s ability to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory requirements, such as IFRS17, highlights its practical relevance in the insurance industry. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of actuarial science and provide valuable insights for insurance companies seeking more accurate and efficient loss reserving techniques. The proposed ANN-based approach offers a promising avenue for enhancing risk management practices and optimizing financial decision-making processes in the automobile insurance sector.展开更多
The concept of the brain cognitive reserve is derived from the well-acknowledged notion that the degree of brain damage does not always match the severity of clinical symptoms and neurological/cognitive outcomes.It ha...The concept of the brain cognitive reserve is derived from the well-acknowledged notion that the degree of brain damage does not always match the severity of clinical symptoms and neurological/cognitive outcomes.It has been suggested that the size of the brain(brain reserve) and the extent of neural connections acquired through life(neural reserve) set a threshold beyond which noticeable impairments occur.In contrast,cognitive reserve refers to the brain's ability to adapt and reo rganize stru cturally and functionally to resist damage and maintain function,including neural reserve and brain maintenance,resilience,and compensation(Verkhratsky and Zorec,2024).展开更多
For stochastic loss reserving,we propose an individual information model(IIM)which accom-modates not only individual/micro data consisting of incurring times,reporting developments,settlement developments as well as p...For stochastic loss reserving,we propose an individual information model(IIM)which accom-modates not only individual/micro data consisting of incurring times,reporting developments,settlement developments as well as payments of individual claims but also heterogeneity among policies.We give over-dispersed Poisson assumption about the moments of reporting developments and payments of every individual claims.Model estimation is conducted under quasi-likelihood theory.Analytic expressions are derived for the expectation and variance of outstanding liabilities,given historical observations.We utilise conditional mean square error of prediction(MSEP)to measure the accuracy of loss reserving and also theoretically prove that when risk portfolio size is large enough,IIM shows a higher prediction accuracy than individ-ual/micro data model(IDM)in predicting the outstanding liabilities,if the heterogeneity indeed influences claims developments and otherwise IIM is asymptotically equivalent to IDM.Some simulations are conducted to investigate the conditional MSEPs for IIM and IDM.A real data analysis is performed basing on real observations in health insurance.展开更多
Located in southern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,northwest China,the Liupan Mountain National Nature Reserve covers a total area of 26,783.64 hectares.Established in 1982 and upgraded to national status in 1988,it pr...Located in southern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,northwest China,the Liupan Mountain National Nature Reserve covers a total area of 26,783.64 hectares.Established in 1982 and upgraded to national status in 1988,it protects a vital temperate mountainous forest ecosystem on the Loess Plateau.The reserve is centred around the Liupan Mountain range,one of China’s youngest mountain chains,formed by Himalayan tectonic movements.展开更多
Background There is still limited data on predictive value of coronary computed tomography angiography(CCTA)–derived fractional flow reserve(CT-FFR) for long term outcomes. We examined the long-term prognostic value ...Background There is still limited data on predictive value of coronary computed tomography angiography(CCTA)–derived fractional flow reserve(CT-FFR) for long term outcomes. We examined the long-term prognostic value of CT-FFR combined with CCTA–defined atherosclerotic extent in diabetic patients with coronary artery disease(CAD).Methods A retrospective pooled analysis of individual patient data was performed. Deep-learning-based vessel-specific CTFFR was calculated. All patients enrolled were followed-up for at least 5 years. Predictive abilities for major adverse cardiac events(MACE) were compared among three models(model 1), constructed using clinical variables;model 2, model 1+CCTA–derived atherosclerotic extent(Leiden risk score);and model 3, model 2+CT-FFR.Results A total of 480 diabetic patients [median age, 61(55–66) years;52.9% men] were included. During a median follow-up time of 2197(2126–2355) days, 55 patients(11.5%) experienced MACE. In multivariate-adjusted Cox models, Leiden risk score(HR: 1.06;95% CI: 1.01–1.11;P = 0.013) and CT-FFR ≤ 0.80(HR: 6.54;95% CI: 3.18–13.45;P < 0.001) were the independent predictors. The discriminant ability was higher in model 2 than in model 1(C-index, 0.75 vs. 0.63;P < 0.001) and was further promoted by adding CT-FFR to model 3(C-index, 0.81 vs. 0.75;P = 0.002). Net reclassification improvement(NRI) was 0.19(P = 0.009) for model 2 beyond model 1. Of note, adding CT-FFR to model 3 also exhibited significantly improved reclassification compared with model 2(NRI = 0.14;P = 0.011).Conclusion In diabetic patients with CAD, CT-FFR provides robust and incremental prognostic information for predicting longterm outcomes. The combined model exhibits improved prediction abilities, which is beneficial for risk stratification.展开更多
CHINA Wuliangshan National Nature Reserve Spanning a significant altitudinal range from 1,600 to 3,371 metres and encompassing a total area of 31,585 hectares,the Wuliangshan National Nature Reserve protects one of th...CHINA Wuliangshan National Nature Reserve Spanning a significant altitudinal range from 1,600 to 3,371 metres and encompassing a total area of 31,585 hectares,the Wuliangshan National Nature Reserve protects one of the most intact and pristine forest ecosystems in southern Yunnan Province.展开更多
Elk are seen at the Tian’ezhou National Nature Reserve for Elk in Shishou,Hubei Province,on 27 November 2025.The reserve’s elk population has risen from just 64 in the 1990s to more than 4,500 today.
Ungulates serve as key components in maintaining ecosystem stability,and their ecological functions are closely linked to the integrity of giant panda habitats within Wanglang National Nature Reserve.Assessment of ung...Ungulates serve as key components in maintaining ecosystem stability,and their ecological functions are closely linked to the integrity of giant panda habitats within Wanglang National Nature Reserve.Assessment of ungulate habitat suitability in this reserve can provide critical insights into the distribution patterns of ungulate communities across protected areas while informing conservation strategy optimization.Therefore,six ungulate species were monitored,including Tufted deer(Elaphodus cephalophus),Chinese serow(Capricornis milneedwardsii),Chinese goral(Naemorhedus griseus),Sichuan takin(Budorcas taxicolor),Reeve's muntjac(Muntiacus reevesi),and Wild boar(Sus scrofa)in Wanglang National Nature Reserve.The infrared camera monitoring data(a total of 83 sites)and 23 environmental variables were collected from January 2011 to May 2019,the relative abundance index(RAI),independent samples t-test,and optimized MaxEnt model were employed to evaluate the habitat suitability of six ungulate species.Our findings were as follows:(1)there were significant differences in the annual RAI among the six ungulate species(P<0.01).(2)the suitable habitat area varied among species:Tufted deer occupied 9578 hm^(2)(31.08%of the total),Chinese serow 10,093 hm^(2)(32.75%);Chinese goral 9936 hm^(2)(32.24%);Sichuan takin 10,992 hm^(2)(35.67%);Reeve's muntjac 9542 hm^(2)(30.96%);and Wild boar 9642 hm^(2)(31.28%).(3)the spatial niche overlaps between each pair of the six ungulates were all relatively high(D=0.77-0.89).(4)the annual average temperature,precipitation during the coldest season,and vegetation were the key factors influencing habitat selection.These findings offer valuable references for the conservation of ungulates in natural reserve and are conducive to formulating more scientific and effective.展开更多
In recent years,the combined effects of seismic disturbances and extreme rainfall events have intensified water turbidity and sedimentation in several lakes within the Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve located within the Jiuz...In recent years,the combined effects of seismic disturbances and extreme rainfall events have intensified water turbidity and sedimentation in several lakes within the Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve located within the Jiuzhaigou watershed in Southwest China.In July 2024,turbidity events were observed in multiple core lakes,with noticeable impacts on local ecological functions and landscape values.To quantitatively characterize lake physical changes and explore their driving mechanisms,this study developed an integrated“air-space-ground”lake morphological measurement framework that combines unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV),unmanned surface vehicles(USV),and satellite remote sensing to enable high-precision acquisition of lake bathymetry,relationships between water level and surface area,and storage capacity.Additionally,time-series analyses of fractional vegetation cover(FVC)and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE)model were applied to characterize the patterns of change in vegetation cover and soil erosion intensity before and after seismic and extreme rainfall events.The results show that:(1)The physical morphology of the lakes has changed significantly compared with the field measurements conducted in 2004.The surface areas of the Arrow Bamboo Lake and the Rhinoceros Lake decreased by 15.2%~17.0%,and lake storage capacity decreased by 20%~33%.In Long Lake,the difference between the minimum and maximum daily water levels reached 13.21 m,and since 2021,the annual mean water level has exhibited a continuous decline at a rate of 1.46 m·a^(-1).(2)Based on the results of the FVC time series analysis,the two earthquake events resulted in decreases in vegetation cover by 19.14%and 13.19%,and these decreases were accompanied by enhanced soil erosion under heavy rainfall conditions.This process facilitated the transport of large amounts of terrestrial material into the lakes,thereby contributing to water turbidity and sediment accumulation.RUSLE-based estimates further indicate that the two earthquakes increased the peak mean soil erosion modulus by 7.61 t·ha^(-1)·a^(-1)and 4.10 t·ha^(-1)·a^(-1),respectively,relative to pre-earthquake conditions.Based on these findings,it is recommended to implement slope vegetation restoration on the upstream areas of the core lakes,strengthen slope protection in accident-prone locations,and monitor water-sediment dynamics during heavy rainfall periods,to mitigate sedimentation risks and enhance the stability of the scenic area's ecosystem.展开更多
Objective:To identify predictors of pregnancy and live birth outcomes in assisted reproductive technology(ART)cycles based on patient characteristics,hormonal profile,and embryo transfer variables.Methods:This retrosp...Objective:To identify predictors of pregnancy and live birth outcomes in assisted reproductive technology(ART)cycles based on patient characteristics,hormonal profile,and embryo transfer variables.Methods:This retrospective cohort study included 50 fresh in vitro fertilization(IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection(ICSI)cycles selected from ART participants at a single tertiary ART center.Controlled ovarian stimulation was performed using recombinant follicle stimulating hormone(rFSH),gonadotropin-releasing hormone(GnRH)antagonist,and menotropins;oocyte retrieval occurred 36 h after trigger and embryo transfer was performed on day 3 or 5.Outcomes(chemical pregnancy,ongoing pregnancy,abortion,live birth)were compared across groups stratified by maternal age,antral follicle count(AFC),anti-Müllerian hormone(AMH),baseline luteinizing hormone(LH),estradiol(E2)at trigger,and endometrial thickness.Multivariate regression was used to identify independent predictors of live birth.Results:A total of 124 ART patients were screened during the study period,of whom 50 participants meeting the eligibility criteria were included in the final analysis.The median age of the participants was 35.8 years[interquartile range(IQR)32.5–39.6].The median AFC was 8(IQR 4–14),AMH level was 1.4 ng/mL(IQR 0.7–2.9),and the median endometrial thickness at embryo transfer was 10.2 mm(IQR 9.0–11.3).Chemical,ongoing,abortion,and live birth rates were 62%,32%,12%,and 16%,respectively.Younger maternal age(<35 years),higher AFC(>12),AMH 1–4 ng/mL,and endometrial thickness≥10 mm were associated with more favorable pregnancy outcomes.In multivariate analysis,higher baseline LH(β=0.089;95%CI 0.017–0.162;P=0.02)and greater endometrial thickness(β=0.145;95%CI 0.011–0.278;P=0.04)independently predicted live birth,whereas age,AFC,AMH,and E2 did not.Conclusions:Maternal age,ovarian reserve markers,LH levels,and endometrial thickness collectively influence ART outcomes.Baseline LH and endometrial receptivity are key independent predictors of live birth and may guide individualized treatment strategies.展开更多
3,399.1 billion According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange(SAFE),China’s foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 3,399.1 billion at the end of January 2026,an increase of USD 41.2 billi...3,399.1 billion According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange(SAFE),China’s foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 3,399.1 billion at the end of January 2026,an increase of USD 41.2 billion from the previous month.展开更多
The study aimed at predicting potential suitable areas with national key reserve Orchidaceae plants in Heilongjiang province and conducive to plant protection.The distribution point data of six Orchidaceae plants and ...The study aimed at predicting potential suitable areas with national key reserve Orchidaceae plants in Heilongjiang province and conducive to plant protection.The distribution point data of six Orchidaceae plants and 19 bioclimatic variables were selected,and the environmental factors required for modeling were screened out by pearson correlation analysis and variance inflation factor(VIF)analysis.The potential suitable areas of Orchidaceae plants were predictat present and under different climate scenarios in 2090s by using geographic information system(GIS)and Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt).And then evaluated the prediction accuracy of the MaxEnt model using the AUC value,the TSS value and the Kappa value.The results showed that:1)The area under curve(AUC)values,true skill statistics(TSS)values and KAPPA values predicted by MaxEnt model were separately above 0.9,0.85 and 0.75.2)Under the climate scenario at present,the total suitable area of Orchidaceae plants was about 9.61×10^(6)km^(2),which was mainly distributed in Heilongjiang province.Among them,the high-suitable area of Cypripedium shanxiense S.C.Chen was the largest,the non-suitable area of Cypripedium guttatum Sw was the largest.3)Under different climate scenarios in 2090s,the total suitable area was slightly increasing(9.62×10^(6)km^(2)).Among them,Cypripedium shanxiense S.C.Chen and Gastrodiae Rhizoma both showed the trend of expansion to the southwest,China,and the suitable areas expanded significantly.Comprehensive factor analysis showed that temperature and precipitation were the main bioclimatic variables of suitable areas distribution,and the low emission scenario(SSP 2-4.5)will be more conducive to the survival of Orchidaceae plants.展开更多
Non-structural carbohydrates(NSCs)are crucial for tree growth and survival under climatic stress,yet their spatial dynamics across broad climate gradients remain unclear.Pines(Pinus spp.),one of the most widely distri...Non-structural carbohydrates(NSCs)are crucial for tree growth and survival under climatic stress,yet their spatial dynamics across broad climate gradients remain unclear.Pines(Pinus spp.),one of the most widely distributed tree genera worldwide,provide an ideal system for investigating large-scale spatial patterns of NSC within a single genus along extensive climatic gradients.Here,we compiled a global NSC database for pines across 74 sites,and assessed the spatial variation in total NSC,starch(St),and soluble sugars(SS)concentrations in stem sapwood,the primary reserve tissue,along site-specific mean annual temperature(MAT)and precipitation(MAP).Our results show that MAP exerted a stronger influence(R^(2)=20%–47%)on the spatial variation in total NSC and its components than did MAT(R^(2)=6%–16%).Tota concentrations declined nonlinearly with increasing MAP,with the rate of decline slowing beyond approximately 800 mm.While MAT had weaker effects on total NSC concentrations,both MAT and MAP jointly regulated NSC partitioning:Higher MAT and MAP were associated with reduced St concentrations but elevated SS concentrations and SS:St ratios.These findings suggest that pine species in cold and arid environments prioritize storing NSC as St,whereas in relatively warm and humid environments,NSC are preferentially mobilized into SS to support immediate metabolic and growth demands.展开更多
CHINA.Dinghu Mountain National Nature Reserve.Located in Zhaoqing,Guangdong Province,Dinghu Mountain National Nature Reserve is a pristine natural sanctuary spanning 1,133 hectares within the low mountain ranges of th...CHINA.Dinghu Mountain National Nature Reserve.Located in Zhaoqing,Guangdong Province,Dinghu Mountain National Nature Reserve is a pristine natural sanctuary spanning 1,133 hectares within the low mountain ranges of the Dayunwu Mountains.展开更多
In a pivotal moment for global conservation policy,UNESCO’s Man and the Biosphere(MAB)Programme has endorsed the Hangzhou Strategic Action Plan(HSAP)2026–2035(UNESCO,2025),a decade-long roadmap that positions the Wo...In a pivotal moment for global conservation policy,UNESCO’s Man and the Biosphere(MAB)Programme has endorsed the Hangzhou Strategic Action Plan(HSAP)2026–2035(UNESCO,2025),a decade-long roadmap that positions the World Network of Biosphere Reserves(WNBR)as central actors in delivering biodiversity,climate and sustainable-development goals(SDGs).The plan—developed and opened for global consultation in the runup to the 5th World Congress of Biosphere Reserves—articulates strategic directions,measurable action targets and practical instruments to strengthen biosphere reserves as living laboratories for people and nature(Ma,2025).展开更多
文摘In this paper, the Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Model is developed and extended using machine learning. The traditional actuarial reserving techniques are no longer compatible with the increase in technological advancement currently at hand. As a result, the development of the alternative Artificial Intelligence Based Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Methodology which captures diverse risk profiles for various policyholders through augmenting the Micro Finance services, Auto Insurance Services and Both Services lines of business on the same platform through the computation of the Comprehensive Automated Actuarial Loss Reserves (CAALR) has been implemented in this paper. The introduction of the four further types of actuarial loss reserves to those existing in the actuarial literature seems to significantly reduce lapse rates, reduce the reinsurance costs as well as expenses and outgo. As a matter of consequence, this helps to bring together a combination of new and existing policyholders in the insurance company. The frequency severity models have been extended in this paper using ten machine learning algorithms which ultimately leads to the derivation of the proposed machine learning-based actuarial loss reserving model which remarkably performed well when compared to the traditional chain ladder actuarial reserving method using simulated data.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos 61271064,61571171 and 61302009the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No LZ12F01001
文摘We consider intrinsic gate capacitance variations due to random dopants in the nanometer metal oxide semi- conductor field effect transistor （MOSFET） channel. The variations of total gate capacitance and gate transcapacitances are investigated and the strong correlations between the trans-capacitance variations are discovered. A simple statistical model is proposed for accurately capturing total gate capacitance variability based on the correlations. The model fits very well with the Monte Carlo simulations and the average errors are -0.033% for n-type metal-oxide semiconductor and -0.012% for p-type metal-oxide semiconductor, respectively. Our simulation studies also indicate that, owing to these correlations, the total gate capacitance variability will not dominate in gate capacitance variations.
文摘The idea of application from DNA information organization for providing the next generation super-computers has been proposed by lessons learned from nature. Thus, molecular environment of reserving information was considered as succeeding generation of a mother-board project containing some subcategories with various applications. MERI, constructed based on the binary coding system using DNA synthesizer machine, enables retrievable reading of molecular structures using DNA sequencer machine. It has high capacity for reservation of information about 1.212 × 1011 Kb/cm2 with long-term stability. It can be used in various fields of science and technology regarding its high capacity, small size and safety measures.
文摘“Treating vitality”and“ reserving vitality”are very important manipulations during acupuncture treatment of diseases.“Treating vitality” comprises adjusting and treating both the acupuncture doctor＇s and the patient＇s vitality; while “reserving vitality” demands the acupuncture doctor carefully to experience the sensations of ＇excess＇ or ＇deficiency＇ under the needle, wait for the arrival of qi, observe the patient＇s responses, and then perform reducing or reinforcing needling manipulations in accordance with the state of excess-or deficiency-syndrome. “Treating vitality”and “reserving vitality” impenetrate the whole process of acupuncture treatment all along. Through years＇ clinical practice, the author of the present paper discusses the functions of the two aspects in every stage of acupuncture treatment, including before acupuncture, during needle insertion, during retention and withdrawal of the needle. The purpose of this paper is to explain the clinical significance of treating and reserving vitality and arouse many acupuncture doctors＇attention.
文摘Of seventy-one patients with rectal cancer after radical resection retaining the anus, 15 developed local recurrence with a recurrence rate of 21.1%. Local recurrence was correlated with improper safety margin from the lower edge of cancer to the anal end. There was statistical significant difference between 3 cm or more and 2 cm or less. The local recurrence was also related to the pathologic stage, histologic differentiation and implant of free cancer cells. It is suggested that the surgical indication of saving the anus be strict and without stretching, the safety margin from the lower edge of cancer to the anal end should not be less than 2 cm in early rectal cancer and not less than 4 cm in advanced lesions. During the operation, no touching tumor technique, thorough rinsing of the peritoneal cavity and pre- or post-operative radiotherapy are important for prevention of local recurrence. Early local recurrent rectal cancer can be detected by periodic examinations.
文摘This study proposes a novel approach for estimating automobile insurance loss reserves utilizing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques integrated with actuarial data intelligence. The model aims to address the challenges of accurately predicting insurance claim frequencies, severities, and overall loss reserves while accounting for inflation adjustments. Through comprehensive data analysis and model development, this research explores the effectiveness of ANN methodologies in capturing complex nonlinear relationships within insurance data. The study leverages a data set comprising automobile insurance policyholder information, claim history, and economic indicators to train and validate the ANN-based reserving model. Key aspects of the methodology include data preprocessing techniques such as one-hot encoding and scaling, followed by the construction of frequency, severity, and overall loss reserving models using ANN architectures. Moreover, the model incorporates inflation adjustment factors to ensure the accurate estimation of future loss reserves in real terms. Results from the study demonstrate the superior predictive performance of the ANN-based reserving model compared to traditional actuarial methods, with substantial improvements in accuracy and robustness. Furthermore, the model’s ability to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory requirements, such as IFRS17, highlights its practical relevance in the insurance industry. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of actuarial science and provide valuable insights for insurance companies seeking more accurate and efficient loss reserving techniques. The proposed ANN-based approach offers a promising avenue for enhancing risk management practices and optimizing financial decision-making processes in the automobile insurance sector.
文摘The concept of the brain cognitive reserve is derived from the well-acknowledged notion that the degree of brain damage does not always match the severity of clinical symptoms and neurological/cognitive outcomes.It has been suggested that the size of the brain(brain reserve) and the extent of neural connections acquired through life(neural reserve) set a threshold beyond which noticeable impairments occur.In contrast,cognitive reserve refers to the brain's ability to adapt and reo rganize stru cturally and functionally to resist damage and maintain function,including neural reserve and brain maintenance,resilience,and compensation(Verkhratsky and Zorec,2024).
基金This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(71771089)the Shanghai Philosophy and Social Sci-ence Foundation(2015BGL001)+1 种基金the National Social Science Foundation Key Program of China(17ZDA091)China Scholarship Council(201906140045)。
文摘For stochastic loss reserving,we propose an individual information model(IIM)which accom-modates not only individual/micro data consisting of incurring times,reporting developments,settlement developments as well as payments of individual claims but also heterogeneity among policies.We give over-dispersed Poisson assumption about the moments of reporting developments and payments of every individual claims.Model estimation is conducted under quasi-likelihood theory.Analytic expressions are derived for the expectation and variance of outstanding liabilities,given historical observations.We utilise conditional mean square error of prediction(MSEP)to measure the accuracy of loss reserving and also theoretically prove that when risk portfolio size is large enough,IIM shows a higher prediction accuracy than individ-ual/micro data model(IDM)in predicting the outstanding liabilities,if the heterogeneity indeed influences claims developments and otherwise IIM is asymptotically equivalent to IDM.Some simulations are conducted to investigate the conditional MSEPs for IIM and IDM.A real data analysis is performed basing on real observations in health insurance.
文摘Located in southern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,northwest China,the Liupan Mountain National Nature Reserve covers a total area of 26,783.64 hectares.Established in 1982 and upgraded to national status in 1988,it protects a vital temperate mountainous forest ecosystem on the Loess Plateau.The reserve is centred around the Liupan Mountain range,one of China’s youngest mountain chains,formed by Himalayan tectonic movements.
文摘Background There is still limited data on predictive value of coronary computed tomography angiography(CCTA)–derived fractional flow reserve(CT-FFR) for long term outcomes. We examined the long-term prognostic value of CT-FFR combined with CCTA–defined atherosclerotic extent in diabetic patients with coronary artery disease(CAD).Methods A retrospective pooled analysis of individual patient data was performed. Deep-learning-based vessel-specific CTFFR was calculated. All patients enrolled were followed-up for at least 5 years. Predictive abilities for major adverse cardiac events(MACE) were compared among three models(model 1), constructed using clinical variables;model 2, model 1+CCTA–derived atherosclerotic extent(Leiden risk score);and model 3, model 2+CT-FFR.Results A total of 480 diabetic patients [median age, 61(55–66) years;52.9% men] were included. During a median follow-up time of 2197(2126–2355) days, 55 patients(11.5%) experienced MACE. In multivariate-adjusted Cox models, Leiden risk score(HR: 1.06;95% CI: 1.01–1.11;P = 0.013) and CT-FFR ≤ 0.80(HR: 6.54;95% CI: 3.18–13.45;P < 0.001) were the independent predictors. The discriminant ability was higher in model 2 than in model 1(C-index, 0.75 vs. 0.63;P < 0.001) and was further promoted by adding CT-FFR to model 3(C-index, 0.81 vs. 0.75;P = 0.002). Net reclassification improvement(NRI) was 0.19(P = 0.009) for model 2 beyond model 1. Of note, adding CT-FFR to model 3 also exhibited significantly improved reclassification compared with model 2(NRI = 0.14;P = 0.011).Conclusion In diabetic patients with CAD, CT-FFR provides robust and incremental prognostic information for predicting longterm outcomes. The combined model exhibits improved prediction abilities, which is beneficial for risk stratification.
文摘CHINA Wuliangshan National Nature Reserve Spanning a significant altitudinal range from 1,600 to 3,371 metres and encompassing a total area of 31,585 hectares,the Wuliangshan National Nature Reserve protects one of the most intact and pristine forest ecosystems in southern Yunnan Province.
文摘Elk are seen at the Tian’ezhou National Nature Reserve for Elk in Shishou,Hubei Province,on 27 November 2025.The reserve’s elk population has risen from just 64 in the 1990s to more than 4,500 today.
基金project titled“Research on the Distribution Trend of Suitable Habitats for Terrestrial Wild Animals”(Number:SXBYKY2021029).
文摘Ungulates serve as key components in maintaining ecosystem stability,and their ecological functions are closely linked to the integrity of giant panda habitats within Wanglang National Nature Reserve.Assessment of ungulate habitat suitability in this reserve can provide critical insights into the distribution patterns of ungulate communities across protected areas while informing conservation strategy optimization.Therefore,six ungulate species were monitored,including Tufted deer(Elaphodus cephalophus),Chinese serow(Capricornis milneedwardsii),Chinese goral(Naemorhedus griseus),Sichuan takin(Budorcas taxicolor),Reeve's muntjac(Muntiacus reevesi),and Wild boar(Sus scrofa)in Wanglang National Nature Reserve.The infrared camera monitoring data(a total of 83 sites)and 23 environmental variables were collected from January 2011 to May 2019,the relative abundance index(RAI),independent samples t-test,and optimized MaxEnt model were employed to evaluate the habitat suitability of six ungulate species.Our findings were as follows:(1)there were significant differences in the annual RAI among the six ungulate species(P<0.01).(2)the suitable habitat area varied among species:Tufted deer occupied 9578 hm^(2)(31.08%of the total),Chinese serow 10,093 hm^(2)(32.75%);Chinese goral 9936 hm^(2)(32.24%);Sichuan takin 10,992 hm^(2)(35.67%);Reeve's muntjac 9542 hm^(2)(30.96%);and Wild boar 9642 hm^(2)(31.28%).(3)the spatial niche overlaps between each pair of the six ungulates were all relatively high(D=0.77-0.89).(4)the annual average temperature,precipitation during the coldest season,and vegetation were the key factors influencing habitat selection.These findings offer valuable references for the conservation of ungulates in natural reserve and are conducive to formulating more scientific and effective.
基金financially supported by the National Social Science Fund Key Projects of China(Grant No.23AZD086)。
文摘In recent years,the combined effects of seismic disturbances and extreme rainfall events have intensified water turbidity and sedimentation in several lakes within the Jiuzhaigou Nature Reserve located within the Jiuzhaigou watershed in Southwest China.In July 2024,turbidity events were observed in multiple core lakes,with noticeable impacts on local ecological functions and landscape values.To quantitatively characterize lake physical changes and explore their driving mechanisms,this study developed an integrated“air-space-ground”lake morphological measurement framework that combines unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV),unmanned surface vehicles(USV),and satellite remote sensing to enable high-precision acquisition of lake bathymetry,relationships between water level and surface area,and storage capacity.Additionally,time-series analyses of fractional vegetation cover(FVC)and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE)model were applied to characterize the patterns of change in vegetation cover and soil erosion intensity before and after seismic and extreme rainfall events.The results show that:(1)The physical morphology of the lakes has changed significantly compared with the field measurements conducted in 2004.The surface areas of the Arrow Bamboo Lake and the Rhinoceros Lake decreased by 15.2%~17.0%,and lake storage capacity decreased by 20%~33%.In Long Lake,the difference between the minimum and maximum daily water levels reached 13.21 m,and since 2021,the annual mean water level has exhibited a continuous decline at a rate of 1.46 m·a^(-1).(2)Based on the results of the FVC time series analysis,the two earthquake events resulted in decreases in vegetation cover by 19.14%and 13.19%,and these decreases were accompanied by enhanced soil erosion under heavy rainfall conditions.This process facilitated the transport of large amounts of terrestrial material into the lakes,thereby contributing to water turbidity and sediment accumulation.RUSLE-based estimates further indicate that the two earthquakes increased the peak mean soil erosion modulus by 7.61 t·ha^(-1)·a^(-1)and 4.10 t·ha^(-1)·a^(-1),respectively,relative to pre-earthquake conditions.Based on these findings,it is recommended to implement slope vegetation restoration on the upstream areas of the core lakes,strengthen slope protection in accident-prone locations,and monitor water-sediment dynamics during heavy rainfall periods,to mitigate sedimentation risks and enhance the stability of the scenic area's ecosystem.
文摘Objective:To identify predictors of pregnancy and live birth outcomes in assisted reproductive technology(ART)cycles based on patient characteristics,hormonal profile,and embryo transfer variables.Methods:This retrospective cohort study included 50 fresh in vitro fertilization(IVF)/intracytoplasmic sperm injection(ICSI)cycles selected from ART participants at a single tertiary ART center.Controlled ovarian stimulation was performed using recombinant follicle stimulating hormone(rFSH),gonadotropin-releasing hormone(GnRH)antagonist,and menotropins;oocyte retrieval occurred 36 h after trigger and embryo transfer was performed on day 3 or 5.Outcomes(chemical pregnancy,ongoing pregnancy,abortion,live birth)were compared across groups stratified by maternal age,antral follicle count(AFC),anti-Müllerian hormone(AMH),baseline luteinizing hormone(LH),estradiol(E2)at trigger,and endometrial thickness.Multivariate regression was used to identify independent predictors of live birth.Results:A total of 124 ART patients were screened during the study period,of whom 50 participants meeting the eligibility criteria were included in the final analysis.The median age of the participants was 35.8 years[interquartile range(IQR)32.5–39.6].The median AFC was 8(IQR 4–14),AMH level was 1.4 ng/mL(IQR 0.7–2.9),and the median endometrial thickness at embryo transfer was 10.2 mm(IQR 9.0–11.3).Chemical,ongoing,abortion,and live birth rates were 62%,32%,12%,and 16%,respectively.Younger maternal age(<35 years),higher AFC(>12),AMH 1–4 ng/mL,and endometrial thickness≥10 mm were associated with more favorable pregnancy outcomes.In multivariate analysis,higher baseline LH(β=0.089;95%CI 0.017–0.162;P=0.02)and greater endometrial thickness(β=0.145;95%CI 0.011–0.278;P=0.04)independently predicted live birth,whereas age,AFC,AMH,and E2 did not.Conclusions:Maternal age,ovarian reserve markers,LH levels,and endometrial thickness collectively influence ART outcomes.Baseline LH and endometrial receptivity are key independent predictors of live birth and may guide individualized treatment strategies.
文摘3,399.1 billion According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange(SAFE),China’s foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 3,399.1 billion at the end of January 2026,an increase of USD 41.2 billion from the previous month.
基金funded by Project of Scientific Research Business Expenses of Provincial Scientific Research Institutes in Heilongjiang Province(No.CZKYF2023-1-B024)Heilongjiang Academy of Sciences Dean Fund Project(No.YZ2022ZR02)+1 种基金the Science and Technology Basic Resources Investigation Program of China(No.2019FY100500)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2572023CT11).
文摘The study aimed at predicting potential suitable areas with national key reserve Orchidaceae plants in Heilongjiang province and conducive to plant protection.The distribution point data of six Orchidaceae plants and 19 bioclimatic variables were selected,and the environmental factors required for modeling were screened out by pearson correlation analysis and variance inflation factor(VIF)analysis.The potential suitable areas of Orchidaceae plants were predictat present and under different climate scenarios in 2090s by using geographic information system(GIS)and Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt).And then evaluated the prediction accuracy of the MaxEnt model using the AUC value,the TSS value and the Kappa value.The results showed that:1)The area under curve(AUC)values,true skill statistics(TSS)values and KAPPA values predicted by MaxEnt model were separately above 0.9,0.85 and 0.75.2)Under the climate scenario at present,the total suitable area of Orchidaceae plants was about 9.61×10^(6)km^(2),which was mainly distributed in Heilongjiang province.Among them,the high-suitable area of Cypripedium shanxiense S.C.Chen was the largest,the non-suitable area of Cypripedium guttatum Sw was the largest.3)Under different climate scenarios in 2090s,the total suitable area was slightly increasing(9.62×10^(6)km^(2)).Among them,Cypripedium shanxiense S.C.Chen and Gastrodiae Rhizoma both showed the trend of expansion to the southwest,China,and the suitable areas expanded significantly.Comprehensive factor analysis showed that temperature and precipitation were the main bioclimatic variables of suitable areas distribution,and the low emission scenario(SSP 2-4.5)will be more conducive to the survival of Orchidaceae plants.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42430503 and 42271048)the Hebei Natural Science Foundation(No.D2025205003)the Science Foundation of Hebei Normal University(No.L2025B31)。
文摘Non-structural carbohydrates(NSCs)are crucial for tree growth and survival under climatic stress,yet their spatial dynamics across broad climate gradients remain unclear.Pines(Pinus spp.),one of the most widely distributed tree genera worldwide,provide an ideal system for investigating large-scale spatial patterns of NSC within a single genus along extensive climatic gradients.Here,we compiled a global NSC database for pines across 74 sites,and assessed the spatial variation in total NSC,starch(St),and soluble sugars(SS)concentrations in stem sapwood,the primary reserve tissue,along site-specific mean annual temperature(MAT)and precipitation(MAP).Our results show that MAP exerted a stronger influence(R^(2)=20%–47%)on the spatial variation in total NSC and its components than did MAT(R^(2)=6%–16%).Tota concentrations declined nonlinearly with increasing MAP,with the rate of decline slowing beyond approximately 800 mm.While MAT had weaker effects on total NSC concentrations,both MAT and MAP jointly regulated NSC partitioning:Higher MAT and MAP were associated with reduced St concentrations but elevated SS concentrations and SS:St ratios.These findings suggest that pine species in cold and arid environments prioritize storing NSC as St,whereas in relatively warm and humid environments,NSC are preferentially mobilized into SS to support immediate metabolic and growth demands.
文摘CHINA.Dinghu Mountain National Nature Reserve.Located in Zhaoqing,Guangdong Province,Dinghu Mountain National Nature Reserve is a pristine natural sanctuary spanning 1,133 hectares within the low mountain ranges of the Dayunwu Mountains.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China,China(2022YFE0209400).
文摘In a pivotal moment for global conservation policy,UNESCO’s Man and the Biosphere(MAB)Programme has endorsed the Hangzhou Strategic Action Plan(HSAP)2026–2035(UNESCO,2025),a decade-long roadmap that positions the World Network of Biosphere Reserves(WNBR)as central actors in delivering biodiversity,climate and sustainable-development goals(SDGs).The plan—developed and opened for global consultation in the runup to the 5th World Congress of Biosphere Reserves—articulates strategic directions,measurable action targets and practical instruments to strengthen biosphere reserves as living laboratories for people and nature(Ma,2025).
