Reliability of power systems is a key aspect in modern power system planning, design, and operation. The ascendance of the smart grid concept has provided high hopes of developing an intelligent network that is capabl...Reliability of power systems is a key aspect in modern power system planning, design, and operation. The ascendance of the smart grid concept has provided high hopes of developing an intelligent network that is capable of being a self-healing grid, offering the ability to overcome the interruption problems that face the utility and cost it tens of millions in repair and loss. In this work, we develop a MATLAB code to examine the effect of the smart grid applications in improving the reliability of the power distribution networks via Monte Carlo Simulation approach. The system used in this paper is the IEEE 34 test feeder. The objective is to measure the installations of the Automatic Reclosers (ARs) as well as the Distributed Generators (DGs) on the reliability indices, SAIDI, SAIFI, CAIDI and EUE, and make comparisons with results from a previous study done by the authors using another approach. The MATLAB code should provide close results to the output of the previous research to verify its effectiveness.展开更多
We consider reliability engineering in modern civil aviation industry, and the related engineering activities and methods. We consider reliability in a broad sense, referring to other system characteristics that are r...We consider reliability engineering in modern civil aviation industry, and the related engineering activities and methods. We consider reliability in a broad sense, referring to other system characteristics that are related to it, like availability, maintainability, safety and durability. We covered the entire lifecycle of the equipment, including reliability requirement identification, reliability analysis and design, verification and validation of reliability requirements(typically involved in the equipment design and development phase), quality assurance(which typically enters in the manufacturing phase), and fault diagnosis and prognosis and maintenance(which are connected to the operation phase). Lessons learnt from reliability engineering practices in civil aviation industry are given, which might serve as reference for reliability managers and engineers, also from other industries with high reliability requirements.展开更多
In order to take into account the uncertainties linked to the variables in the evaluation of the statistical properties of structural response, a reliability approach with probabilistic aspect was considered. This is ...In order to take into account the uncertainties linked to the variables in the evaluation of the statistical properties of structural response, a reliability approach with probabilistic aspect was considered. This is called the Probabilistic Transformation Method (PTM). This method is readily applicable when the function between the input and the output of the system is explicit. However, the situation is much more involved when it is necessary to perform the evaluation of implicit function between the input and the output of the system through numerical models. In this work, we propose a technique that combines Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and Probabilistic Transformation Method (PTM) to evaluate the Probability Density Function (PDF) of response where the function between the input and the output of the system is implicit. This technique is based on the numerical simulations of the Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and the Probabilistic Transformation Method (PTM) using an interface between Finite Element software and Matlab. Some problems of structures are treated in order to prove the applicability of the proposed technique. Moreover, the obtained results are compared to those obtained by the reference method of Monte Carlo. A second aim of this work is to develop an algorithm of global optimization using the local method SQP, because of its effectiveness and its rapidity of convergence. For this reason, we have combined the method SQP with the Multi start method. This developed algorithm is tested on test functions comparing with other methods such as the method of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). In order to test the applicability of the proposed approach, a structure is optimized under reliability constraints.展开更多
In practical engineering, many uncertain factors in loading or degradation of material properties may vary with time. Stochastic process modeling constitutes a suitable approach for describing these time-dependent unc...In practical engineering, many uncertain factors in loading or degradation of material properties may vary with time. Stochastic process modeling constitutes a suitable approach for describing these time-dependent uncertainties. By adopting this approach, however, the timedependent reliability calculation is a great challenge owing to the complexity and the huge computational burden. This paper presents a new instantaneous response surface method t-IRS for time-dependent reliability analysis. Different from the adaptive extreme response surface approach, the proposed method does not need to build and update surrogate models separately at each time node. It first uses the expansion optimal linear estimation method to discretize the stochastic processes into a set of independent standard normal variables together with some deterministic functions of time. Time is then treated as an independent one-dimensional variable. Next, initial samples are generated by Latin hypercube sampling, and the corresponding response values are calculated and utilized to construct an instantaneous response surrogate model of the Kriging type. The active learning method is applied to update the Kriging surrogate model until satisfactory accuracy is achieved. Finally, the instantaneous response surrogate model is used to compute the time-dependent reliability via Monte Carlo simulation. Four case studies are utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the ^-IRS method for time-dependent reliability analysis.展开更多
This paper reviews several recently-developed techniques for the minimum-cost optimal design of water-retaining structures (WRSs), which integrate the effects of seepage. These include the incorporation of uncertainty...This paper reviews several recently-developed techniques for the minimum-cost optimal design of water-retaining structures (WRSs), which integrate the effects of seepage. These include the incorporation of uncertainty in heterogeneous soil parameter estimates and quantification of reliability. This review is limited to methods based on coupled simulation-optimization (S-O) models. In this context, the design of WRSs is mainly affected by hydraulic design variables such as seepage quantities, which are difficult to determine from closed-form solutions or approximation theories. An S-O model is built by integrating numerical seepage modeling responses to an optimization algorithm based on efficient surrogate models. The surrogate models (meta-models) are trained on simulated data obtained from finite element numerical code solutions. The proposed methodology is applied using several machine learning techniques and optimization solvers to optimize the design of WRS by incorporating different design variables and boundary conditions. Additionally, the effects of several scenarios of flow domain hydraulic conductivity are integrated into the S-O model. Also, reliability based optimum design concepts are incorporated in the S-O model to quantify uncertainty in seepage quantities due to uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity estimates. We can conclude that the S-O model can efficiently optimize WRS designs. The ANN, SVM, and GPR machine learning technique-based surrogate models are efficiently and expeditiously incorporated into the S-O models to imitate the numerical responses of simulations of various problems.展开更多
To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply ...To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability.展开更多
This study presents a new tool for solving stochastic boundary-value problems. This tool is created by modify the previous spectral stochastic meshless local Petrov-Galerkin method using the MLPG5 scheme. This modifie...This study presents a new tool for solving stochastic boundary-value problems. This tool is created by modify the previous spectral stochastic meshless local Petrov-Galerkin method using the MLPG5 scheme. This modified spectral stochastic meshless local Petrov-Galerkin method is selectively applied to predict the structural failure probability with the uncertainty in the spatial variability of mechanical properties. Except for the MLPG5 scheme, deriving the proposed spectral stochastic meshless local Petrov-Galerkin formulation adopts generalized polynomial chaos expansions of random mechanical properties. Predicting the structural failure probability is based on the first-order reliability method. Further comparing the spectral stochastic finite element-based and meshless local Petrov-Galerkin-based predicted structural failure probabilities indicates that the proposed spectral stochastic meshless local Petrov-Galerkin method predicts the more accurate structural failure probability than the spectral stochastic finite element method does. In addition, generating spectral stochastic meshless local Petrov-Galerkin results are considerably time-saving than generating Monte-Carlo simulation results does. In conclusion, the spectral stochastic meshless local Petrov-Galerkin method serves as a time-saving tool for solving stochastic boundary-value problems sufficiently accurately.展开更多
This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for ...This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for identifying critical failure modes and their root causes,while BN introduces flexibility in probabilistic reasoning,enabling dynamic updates based on new evidence.This dual methodology overcomes the limitations of static FTA models,offering a comprehensive framework for system reliability analysis.Critical failures,including External Leakage(ELU),Failure to Start(FTS),and Overheating(OHE),were identified as key risks.By incorporating redundancy into high-risk components such as pumps and batteries,the likelihood of these failures was significantly reduced.For instance,redundant pumps reduced the probability of ELU by 31.88%,while additional batteries decreased the occurrence of FTS by 36.45%.The results underscore the practical benefits of combining FTA and BN for enhancing system reliability,particularly in maritime applications where operational safety and efficiency are critical.This research provides valuable insights for maintenance planning and highlights the importance of redundancy in critical systems,especially as the industry transitions toward more autonomous vessels.展开更多
In order to reduce the errors of the reliability of the retaining wall structure in the establishment of function, in the estimation of parameter and algorithm, firstly, two new reliability and stability models of ant...In order to reduce the errors of the reliability of the retaining wall structure in the establishment of function, in the estimation of parameter and algorithm, firstly, two new reliability and stability models of anti-slipping and anti-overturning based on the upper-bound theory of limit analysis were established, and two kinds of failure modes were regarded as a series of systems with multiple correlated failure modes. Then, statistical characteristics of parameters of the retaining wall structure were inferred by maximal entropy principle. At last, the structural reliabilities of single failure mode and multiple failure modes were calculated by Monte Carlo method in MATLAB and the results were compared and analyzed on the sensitivity. It indicates that this method, with a high precision, is not only easy to program and quick in calculation, but also without the limit of nonlinear functions and non-normal random variables. And the results calculated by this method which applies both the limit analysis theory, maximal entropy principle and Monte Carlo method into analyzing the reliability of the retaining wall structures is more scientific, accurate and reliable, in comparison with those calculated by traditional method.展开更多
Embryonic Array(EA) with different configuration methods will directly affect its reliability and hardware consumption. At present, EA configuration design is lack of quantitative analysis method. In order to reasonab...Embryonic Array(EA) with different configuration methods will directly affect its reliability and hardware consumption. At present, EA configuration design is lack of quantitative analysis method. In order to reasonably optimize EA configuration design, an EA configuration optimization design method is proposed, which is based on the constraints of EA hardware consumption and reliability. Through the analysis of EA working process and composition, quantitative analysis of EA reliability and hardware consumption are completed. Based on the constraints of EA hardware consumption and reliability, the mathematical model of EA configuration optimization design is established, which transfers EA configuration optimization design into an integer nonlinear programming model problem. According to the difference of the fitness value of individual waiting for mutation in population, adaptive mutation operator and crossover operator are selected, and a novel Modified Adaptive Differential Evolution(MADE) algorithm is proposed,which is used to solve EA configuration optimization design problem. Simulation experiments and analysis indicate that the MADE is able to effectively improve the speed, accuracy and stability of algorithm. Moreover, the proposed EA configuration optimization design method can select the most reasonable EA configuration design, and play an important guiding role in EA optimization design.展开更多
This paper is aimed at examining the applicability of methods for resilience, reliability and risk analyses of rain-fed agricultural systems from modeled continuous soil moisture availability in rain-fed crop lands. T...This paper is aimed at examining the applicability of methods for resilience, reliability and risk analyses of rain-fed agricultural systems from modeled continuous soil moisture availability in rain-fed crop lands. The methodology involves integration of soil and climatic data in a simple soil moisture accounting model to assess soil moisture availability, and a risk used as indicator of sustainability of rain-fed agricultural systems. It is also attempted to demonstrate the role of soil moisture modeling in risk analysis and agricultural water management in a semi-arid region in Limpopo Basin where rain-fed agriculture is practiced. For this purpose, a daily-time step soil moisture accounting model is employed to simulate daily soil moisture, evaporation, surface runoff, and deep percolation using 40 years (1961-2000) of agroclimatic data, and cropping cycle data of maize, sorghum and sunflower. Using a sustainability criterion on crop water requirement and soil moisture availability, we determined resilience, risk and reliability as a quantitative measure of sustainability of rain-fed agriculture of these three crops. These soil moisture simulations and the sustainability criteria revealed further confirmation of the relative sensitivity to drought of these crops. Generally it is found that the risk of failure is relatively low for sorghum and relatively high for maize and sunflower in the two sites with some differences of severity of failure owing to the slightly different agroclimatic settings.展开更多
The study aims to determine the validity and reliability of the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence–Third Edition(WPPSI-III)scores in a sample of kindergarten and lower primary pupils from Khartoum S...The study aims to determine the validity and reliability of the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence–Third Edition(WPPSI-III)scores in a sample of kindergarten and lower primary pupils from Khartoum State,Sudan.It also aims to examine whether test’s factor structure in this sample replicated that of the original WPPSI-III.The study sample consisted of 384 kindergarten and primary school children in Khartoum State(females=50%mean age=4.14,SD=1.37),selected using stratified random sampling across its seven localities:Khartoum,Jebel Awliya,Khartoum Bahri,East Nile,Omdurman,Ombada,Karari.For concurrent validation,the children additionally completed the Goodenough Draw-a-Man Test,and the Colored Progressive Matrices.WPPSI-III scores demonstrated high internal consistency across the subtest items.Confirmatory factor analysis indicators for total,verbal,and performance intelligence were all excellent.The scale also showed weak to strong score stability ranging from 0.25(weak)to 0.88(strong)based on the Spearman-Brown equation,0.25 to 0.75 based on the Guttman split-half method.The Cronbach’s alpha coefficient scores ranged from 0.54 to 0.93.The WPPSI-III and Goodenough Draw-a-Man Test scores concurrent validity scores were poor(0.05)to modest(0.31),and while those with the Colored Progressive Matrices test were poor(r=0.04–0.18).Thesefindings provide evidence to suggest that the WPPSI-III is appropriate for research use with kindergarten and lower primary school students in Khartoum State,Sudan.展开更多
Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzers(PEMWE)are efficient and sustainable hydrogen production devices.This article analyzes their static and dynamic electrical models integrated with degradation mechanisms.Stat...Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzers(PEMWE)are efficient and sustainable hydrogen production devices.This article analyzes their static and dynamic electrical models integrated with degradation mechanisms.Static models reveal steady-state behavior,while dynamic models capture transient responses to input variations.The developed modeling approach combines the activation and diffusion phenomena,resulting in a novel PEMWE model that closely reflects real-world conditions and enables fast simulations.The electrical model is integrated with the aging model through two key ratios,surface degradation ratio and membrane degradation ratio,which characterize degradation mechanisms affecting electrode and membrane performance.The linear model using second-order Taylor approximation enables the development of a diagnosis approach that can contribute to estimating the remaining useful life of PEMWEs.By associating aging models with electrical models through the proposed ratios,a deeper understanding is achieved regarding how degra-dation phenomena evolve and influence electrolyzer efficiency and durability.The integrated framework enables predictive maintenance strategies,making it valuable for industrial hydrogen production applications.展开更多
Common effluent treatment plants(CETPs) have been installed and are in operation at numerous industrial clusters throughout India. They serve to reduce effluent treatment cost, provide better collective treatment, and...Common effluent treatment plants(CETPs) have been installed and are in operation at numerous industrial clusters throughout India. They serve to reduce effluent treatment cost, provide better collective treatment, and reduce land cost for small-scale industrial facilities that cannot afford individual treatment plants. Optimum working conditions for treatment of effluent to be at par with discharge standards is a major mandate for any CETP. In this study, the reliability and removal efficiencies(REs) of a CETP in the industrial area of Maharashtra State in India were examined. An established methodology was adopted to determine the effectiveness of the CETP in terms of biochemical oxygen demand(BOD), chemical oxygen demand(COD), total suspended solids(TSS), and oil and grease(O&G) concentrations. The CETP's compliance with respect to design standards and its operation were studied in detail. This paper highlights the results of RE and the coefficient of determination(R2) values obtained from the CETP data, estimates the pollutants removed at the highest and lowest rates over a period of time, and highlights the reasons for problem areas along with remedial measures. It was observed that, except O&G, all the parameters(BOD, COD, and TSS)showed fluctuations in removal efficiencies and their reliabilities. This situation can be improved by releasing effluent containing hydraulic and organic loading to the CETP as per standards and optimizing treatment processes, especially primary clari-flocculators and aeration tanks, both of which are important units of any CETP.展开更多
As one of the most important indexes to evaluate the quality of software, software reliability experiences an increasing development in recent years. We investigate a software reliability growth model(SRGM). The appli...As one of the most important indexes to evaluate the quality of software, software reliability experiences an increasing development in recent years. We investigate a software reliability growth model(SRGM). The application of this model is to predict the occurrence of the software faults based on the non-homogeneous Poisson process(NHPP). Unlike the independent assumptions in other models, we consider fault dependency. The testing faults are divided into three classes in this model: leading faults, first-step dependent faults and second-step dependent faults. The leading faults occurring independently follow an NHPP, while the first-step dependent faults only become detectable after the related leading faults are detected. The second-step dependent faults can only be detected after the related first-step dependent faults are detected. Then, the combined model is built on the basis of the three sub-processes. Finally, an illustration based on real dataset is presented to verify the proposed model.展开更多
Monte Carlo Simulations(MCS),commonly used for reliability analysis,require a large amount of data points to obtain acceptable accuracy,even if the Subset Simulation with Importance Sampling(SS/IS)methods are used.The...Monte Carlo Simulations(MCS),commonly used for reliability analysis,require a large amount of data points to obtain acceptable accuracy,even if the Subset Simulation with Importance Sampling(SS/IS)methods are used.The Second Order Reliability Method(SORM)has proved to be an excellent rapid tool in the stochastic analysis of laminated composite structures,when compared to the slower MCS techniques.However,SORM requires differentiating the performance function with respect to each of the random variables involved in the simulation.The most suitable approach to do this is to use a symbolic solver,which renders the simulations very slow,although still faster than MCS.Moreover,the inability to obtain the derivative of the performance function with respect to some parameters,such as ply thickness,limits the capabilities of the classical SORM.In this work,a Neural Network-Based Second Order Reliability Method(NNBSORM)is developed to replace the finite element algorithm in the stochastic analysis of laminated composite plates in free vibration.Because of the ability to obtain expressions for the first and second derivatives of the NN system outputs with respect to any of its inputs,such as material properties,ply thicknesses and orientation angles,the need for using a symbolic solver to calculate the derivatives of the performance function no longer exists.The proposed approach is accordingly much faster,and easily allows for the consideration of ply thickness uncertainty.The present analysis showed that dealing with ply thicknesses as random variables results in 37%increase in the laminate’s probability of failure.展开更多
On the basis of analyzing the reliability of the organization’ management chain of the large and medium- sized project in the construction period, the paper studies the factors influencing the reliability of the orga...On the basis of analyzing the reliability of the organization’ management chain of the large and medium- sized project in the construction period, the paper studies the factors influencing the reliability of the organi-zation management chain, which, corresponding to four elements of management chain – “Management Loop”, “Management Link”, “Management Chain”, and “Management Network”, can be summarized as project main body, interface management, connection sequence and management model. The paper then re-searches on the specific influencing factors from the above-mentioned four aspects.展开更多
Aim: The purpose of this study was to develop a scale, “parental anxiety about pediatric emergency medical care services” (PAPEMCS), and to evaluate its psychometric properties. Methods: Participants were 14,510 par...Aim: The purpose of this study was to develop a scale, “parental anxiety about pediatric emergency medical care services” (PAPEMCS), and to evaluate its psychometric properties. Methods: Participants were 14,510 parents with children 6 years old or younger in Kagawa Prefecture. Using each half of the participants, exploratory factor analysis was performed to generate items and factors for the PAPEMCS, and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to establish the construct validity. The generalizability of the PAPEMCS was evaluated by congruence tests and multigroup CFA. The usefulness of the PAPEMCS was established by the relationship between the PAPEMCS and non-urgent usage of pediatric emergency medical care services (PEMCS). Results: The PAPEMCS compromised 4 factors: “anxiety about quality of PEMCS”, “anxiety about PEMCS system”, “anxiety about public support”, and “anxiety about private support”. All reliability estimates (polychoric ordinal alpha coefficients, item-rest correlations), the item discrimination, 5 fit indices for CFA, the convergent validity (indicator reliabilities, composite reliabilities, average variance extracteds), and the discriminant validity fulfilled the acceptability thresholds. All generalizability estimates fulfilled the predetermined levels of acceptability (Tucker’s congruence coefficients, congruence tests, strict factorial invariance). The usefulness of the PAPEMCS was established by the higher scores of the PAPEMCS being related to non-urgent usage of PEMCS. Conclusions: The PAPEMCS demonstrated satisfactory reliability, validity, generalizability and usefulness. The PAPEMCS is useful to quantify the contents and extent of parental anxiety about PEMCS, and to clarify the mechanisms of non-urgent PEMCS usage.展开更多
Objective To evaluate the reliability of three dimensional spiral fast spin echo pseudo-continuous arterial spin labeling(3 D pc-ASL) in measuring cerebral blood flow(CBF) with different post-labeling delay time(PLD) ...Objective To evaluate the reliability of three dimensional spiral fast spin echo pseudo-continuous arterial spin labeling(3 D pc-ASL) in measuring cerebral blood flow(CBF) with different post-labeling delay time(PLD) in the resting state and the right finger taping state.Methods 3 D pc-ASL and three dimensional T1-weighted fast spoiled gradient recalled echo(3 D T1-FSPGR) sequence were applied to eight healthy subjects twice at the same time each day for one week interval. ASL data acquisition was performed with post-labeling delay time(PLD) 1.5 seconds and 2.0 seconds in the resting state and the right finger taping state respectively. CBF mapping was calculated and CBF value of both the gray matter(GM) and white matter(WM) was automatically extracted. The reliability was evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient(ICC) and Bland and Altman plot.Results ICC of the GM(0.84) and WM(0.92) was lower at PLD 1.5 seconds than that(GM, 0.88; WM, 0.94) at PLD 2.0 seconds in the resting state, and ICC of GM(0.88) was higher in the right finger taping state than that in the resting state at PLD 1.5 seconds. ICC of the GM and WM was 0.71 and 0.78 for PLD 1.5 seconds and PLD 2.0 seconds in the resting state at the first scan, and ICC of the GM and WM was 0.83 and 0.79 at the second scan, respectively.Conclusion This work demonstrated that 3 D pc-ASL might be a reliable imaging technique to measure CBF over the whole brain at different PLD in the resting state or controlled state.展开更多
Discrete software reliability measurement has a proper characteristic for describing a software reliability growth process which depends on a unit of the software fault-detection period, such as the number of test run...Discrete software reliability measurement has a proper characteristic for describing a software reliability growth process which depends on a unit of the software fault-detection period, such as the number of test runs, the number of executed test cases. This paper discusses discrete software reliability measurement based on a discretized nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) model. Especially, we use a bootstrapping method in our discrete software reliability measurement for discussing the statistical inference on parameters and software reliability assessment measures of our model. Finally we show numerical examples of interval estimations based on our bootstrapping method for the several software reliability assessment measures by using actual data.展开更多
文摘Reliability of power systems is a key aspect in modern power system planning, design, and operation. The ascendance of the smart grid concept has provided high hopes of developing an intelligent network that is capable of being a self-healing grid, offering the ability to overcome the interruption problems that face the utility and cost it tens of millions in repair and loss. In this work, we develop a MATLAB code to examine the effect of the smart grid applications in improving the reliability of the power distribution networks via Monte Carlo Simulation approach. The system used in this paper is the IEEE 34 test feeder. The objective is to measure the installations of the Automatic Reclosers (ARs) as well as the Distributed Generators (DGs) on the reliability indices, SAIDI, SAIFI, CAIDI and EUE, and make comparisons with results from a previous study done by the authors using another approach. The MATLAB code should provide close results to the output of the previous research to verify its effectiveness.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 61573043, 71671009 and 71601010)
文摘We consider reliability engineering in modern civil aviation industry, and the related engineering activities and methods. We consider reliability in a broad sense, referring to other system characteristics that are related to it, like availability, maintainability, safety and durability. We covered the entire lifecycle of the equipment, including reliability requirement identification, reliability analysis and design, verification and validation of reliability requirements(typically involved in the equipment design and development phase), quality assurance(which typically enters in the manufacturing phase), and fault diagnosis and prognosis and maintenance(which are connected to the operation phase). Lessons learnt from reliability engineering practices in civil aviation industry are given, which might serve as reference for reliability managers and engineers, also from other industries with high reliability requirements.
文摘In order to take into account the uncertainties linked to the variables in the evaluation of the statistical properties of structural response, a reliability approach with probabilistic aspect was considered. This is called the Probabilistic Transformation Method (PTM). This method is readily applicable when the function between the input and the output of the system is explicit. However, the situation is much more involved when it is necessary to perform the evaluation of implicit function between the input and the output of the system through numerical models. In this work, we propose a technique that combines Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and Probabilistic Transformation Method (PTM) to evaluate the Probability Density Function (PDF) of response where the function between the input and the output of the system is implicit. This technique is based on the numerical simulations of the Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and the Probabilistic Transformation Method (PTM) using an interface between Finite Element software and Matlab. Some problems of structures are treated in order to prove the applicability of the proposed technique. Moreover, the obtained results are compared to those obtained by the reference method of Monte Carlo. A second aim of this work is to develop an algorithm of global optimization using the local method SQP, because of its effectiveness and its rapidity of convergence. For this reason, we have combined the method SQP with the Multi start method. This developed algorithm is tested on test functions comparing with other methods such as the method of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). In order to test the applicability of the proposed approach, a structure is optimized under reliability constraints.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.11572134 and 11832013).
文摘In practical engineering, many uncertain factors in loading or degradation of material properties may vary with time. Stochastic process modeling constitutes a suitable approach for describing these time-dependent uncertainties. By adopting this approach, however, the timedependent reliability calculation is a great challenge owing to the complexity and the huge computational burden. This paper presents a new instantaneous response surface method t-IRS for time-dependent reliability analysis. Different from the adaptive extreme response surface approach, the proposed method does not need to build and update surrogate models separately at each time node. It first uses the expansion optimal linear estimation method to discretize the stochastic processes into a set of independent standard normal variables together with some deterministic functions of time. Time is then treated as an independent one-dimensional variable. Next, initial samples are generated by Latin hypercube sampling, and the corresponding response values are calculated and utilized to construct an instantaneous response surrogate model of the Kriging type. The active learning method is applied to update the Kriging surrogate model until satisfactory accuracy is achieved. Finally, the instantaneous response surrogate model is used to compute the time-dependent reliability via Monte Carlo simulation. Four case studies are utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the ^-IRS method for time-dependent reliability analysis.
文摘This paper reviews several recently-developed techniques for the minimum-cost optimal design of water-retaining structures (WRSs), which integrate the effects of seepage. These include the incorporation of uncertainty in heterogeneous soil parameter estimates and quantification of reliability. This review is limited to methods based on coupled simulation-optimization (S-O) models. In this context, the design of WRSs is mainly affected by hydraulic design variables such as seepage quantities, which are difficult to determine from closed-form solutions or approximation theories. An S-O model is built by integrating numerical seepage modeling responses to an optimization algorithm based on efficient surrogate models. The surrogate models (meta-models) are trained on simulated data obtained from finite element numerical code solutions. The proposed methodology is applied using several machine learning techniques and optimization solvers to optimize the design of WRS by incorporating different design variables and boundary conditions. Additionally, the effects of several scenarios of flow domain hydraulic conductivity are integrated into the S-O model. Also, reliability based optimum design concepts are incorporated in the S-O model to quantify uncertainty in seepage quantities due to uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity estimates. We can conclude that the S-O model can efficiently optimize WRS designs. The ANN, SVM, and GPR machine learning technique-based surrogate models are efficiently and expeditiously incorporated into the S-O models to imitate the numerical responses of simulations of various problems.
基金Financial supports from National Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51609072,51879091,51479050 and 41630638)the National Key Basic Research Program of China("973" Program)(Grant No.2015CB057901)the Public Service Sector R&D Project of Ministry of Water Resource of China(Grant No.201501035-03)
文摘To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability.
文摘This study presents a new tool for solving stochastic boundary-value problems. This tool is created by modify the previous spectral stochastic meshless local Petrov-Galerkin method using the MLPG5 scheme. This modified spectral stochastic meshless local Petrov-Galerkin method is selectively applied to predict the structural failure probability with the uncertainty in the spatial variability of mechanical properties. Except for the MLPG5 scheme, deriving the proposed spectral stochastic meshless local Petrov-Galerkin formulation adopts generalized polynomial chaos expansions of random mechanical properties. Predicting the structural failure probability is based on the first-order reliability method. Further comparing the spectral stochastic finite element-based and meshless local Petrov-Galerkin-based predicted structural failure probabilities indicates that the proposed spectral stochastic meshless local Petrov-Galerkin method predicts the more accurate structural failure probability than the spectral stochastic finite element method does. In addition, generating spectral stochastic meshless local Petrov-Galerkin results are considerably time-saving than generating Monte-Carlo simulation results does. In conclusion, the spectral stochastic meshless local Petrov-Galerkin method serves as a time-saving tool for solving stochastic boundary-value problems sufficiently accurately.
基金supported by Istanbul Technical University(Project No.45698)supported through the“Young Researchers’Career Development Project-training of doctoral students”of the Croatian Science Foundation.
文摘This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for identifying critical failure modes and their root causes,while BN introduces flexibility in probabilistic reasoning,enabling dynamic updates based on new evidence.This dual methodology overcomes the limitations of static FTA models,offering a comprehensive framework for system reliability analysis.Critical failures,including External Leakage(ELU),Failure to Start(FTS),and Overheating(OHE),were identified as key risks.By incorporating redundancy into high-risk components such as pumps and batteries,the likelihood of these failures was significantly reduced.For instance,redundant pumps reduced the probability of ELU by 31.88%,while additional batteries decreased the occurrence of FTS by 36.45%.The results underscore the practical benefits of combining FTA and BN for enhancing system reliability,particularly in maritime applications where operational safety and efficiency are critical.This research provides valuable insights for maintenance planning and highlights the importance of redundancy in critical systems,especially as the industry transitions toward more autonomous vessels.
基金Project(2013CB036004) supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProjects(51178468,51174086) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(201102) supported by the Open Foundation of Hunan Key Laboratory of Safe Mining Techniques of Coal Mines,China
文摘In order to reduce the errors of the reliability of the retaining wall structure in the establishment of function, in the estimation of parameter and algorithm, firstly, two new reliability and stability models of anti-slipping and anti-overturning based on the upper-bound theory of limit analysis were established, and two kinds of failure modes were regarded as a series of systems with multiple correlated failure modes. Then, statistical characteristics of parameters of the retaining wall structure were inferred by maximal entropy principle. At last, the structural reliabilities of single failure mode and multiple failure modes were calculated by Monte Carlo method in MATLAB and the results were compared and analyzed on the sensitivity. It indicates that this method, with a high precision, is not only easy to program and quick in calculation, but also without the limit of nonlinear functions and non-normal random variables. And the results calculated by this method which applies both the limit analysis theory, maximal entropy principle and Monte Carlo method into analyzing the reliability of the retaining wall structures is more scientific, accurate and reliable, in comparison with those calculated by traditional method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61372039 and 61601495)
文摘Embryonic Array(EA) with different configuration methods will directly affect its reliability and hardware consumption. At present, EA configuration design is lack of quantitative analysis method. In order to reasonably optimize EA configuration design, an EA configuration optimization design method is proposed, which is based on the constraints of EA hardware consumption and reliability. Through the analysis of EA working process and composition, quantitative analysis of EA reliability and hardware consumption are completed. Based on the constraints of EA hardware consumption and reliability, the mathematical model of EA configuration optimization design is established, which transfers EA configuration optimization design into an integer nonlinear programming model problem. According to the difference of the fitness value of individual waiting for mutation in population, adaptive mutation operator and crossover operator are selected, and a novel Modified Adaptive Differential Evolution(MADE) algorithm is proposed,which is used to solve EA configuration optimization design problem. Simulation experiments and analysis indicate that the MADE is able to effectively improve the speed, accuracy and stability of algorithm. Moreover, the proposed EA configuration optimization design method can select the most reasonable EA configuration design, and play an important guiding role in EA optimization design.
文摘This paper is aimed at examining the applicability of methods for resilience, reliability and risk analyses of rain-fed agricultural systems from modeled continuous soil moisture availability in rain-fed crop lands. The methodology involves integration of soil and climatic data in a simple soil moisture accounting model to assess soil moisture availability, and a risk used as indicator of sustainability of rain-fed agricultural systems. It is also attempted to demonstrate the role of soil moisture modeling in risk analysis and agricultural water management in a semi-arid region in Limpopo Basin where rain-fed agriculture is practiced. For this purpose, a daily-time step soil moisture accounting model is employed to simulate daily soil moisture, evaporation, surface runoff, and deep percolation using 40 years (1961-2000) of agroclimatic data, and cropping cycle data of maize, sorghum and sunflower. Using a sustainability criterion on crop water requirement and soil moisture availability, we determined resilience, risk and reliability as a quantitative measure of sustainability of rain-fed agriculture of these three crops. These soil moisture simulations and the sustainability criteria revealed further confirmation of the relative sensitivity to drought of these crops. Generally it is found that the risk of failure is relatively low for sorghum and relatively high for maize and sunflower in the two sites with some differences of severity of failure owing to the slightly different agroclimatic settings.
基金The authors extend their appreciation to the Ongoing Research Funding Program,number(ORF2025R705),King Saud University,Riyadh,Saudi Arabia,for funding this work.
文摘The study aims to determine the validity and reliability of the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence–Third Edition(WPPSI-III)scores in a sample of kindergarten and lower primary pupils from Khartoum State,Sudan.It also aims to examine whether test’s factor structure in this sample replicated that of the original WPPSI-III.The study sample consisted of 384 kindergarten and primary school children in Khartoum State(females=50%mean age=4.14,SD=1.37),selected using stratified random sampling across its seven localities:Khartoum,Jebel Awliya,Khartoum Bahri,East Nile,Omdurman,Ombada,Karari.For concurrent validation,the children additionally completed the Goodenough Draw-a-Man Test,and the Colored Progressive Matrices.WPPSI-III scores demonstrated high internal consistency across the subtest items.Confirmatory factor analysis indicators for total,verbal,and performance intelligence were all excellent.The scale also showed weak to strong score stability ranging from 0.25(weak)to 0.88(strong)based on the Spearman-Brown equation,0.25 to 0.75 based on the Guttman split-half method.The Cronbach’s alpha coefficient scores ranged from 0.54 to 0.93.The WPPSI-III and Goodenough Draw-a-Man Test scores concurrent validity scores were poor(0.05)to modest(0.31),and while those with the Colored Progressive Matrices test were poor(r=0.04–0.18).Thesefindings provide evidence to suggest that the WPPSI-III is appropriate for research use with kindergarten and lower primary school students in Khartoum State,Sudan.
文摘Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzers(PEMWE)are efficient and sustainable hydrogen production devices.This article analyzes their static and dynamic electrical models integrated with degradation mechanisms.Static models reveal steady-state behavior,while dynamic models capture transient responses to input variations.The developed modeling approach combines the activation and diffusion phenomena,resulting in a novel PEMWE model that closely reflects real-world conditions and enables fast simulations.The electrical model is integrated with the aging model through two key ratios,surface degradation ratio and membrane degradation ratio,which characterize degradation mechanisms affecting electrode and membrane performance.The linear model using second-order Taylor approximation enables the development of a diagnosis approach that can contribute to estimating the remaining useful life of PEMWEs.By associating aging models with electrical models through the proposed ratios,a deeper understanding is achieved regarding how degra-dation phenomena evolve and influence electrolyzer efficiency and durability.The integrated framework enables predictive maintenance strategies,making it valuable for industrial hydrogen production applications.
文摘Common effluent treatment plants(CETPs) have been installed and are in operation at numerous industrial clusters throughout India. They serve to reduce effluent treatment cost, provide better collective treatment, and reduce land cost for small-scale industrial facilities that cannot afford individual treatment plants. Optimum working conditions for treatment of effluent to be at par with discharge standards is a major mandate for any CETP. In this study, the reliability and removal efficiencies(REs) of a CETP in the industrial area of Maharashtra State in India were examined. An established methodology was adopted to determine the effectiveness of the CETP in terms of biochemical oxygen demand(BOD), chemical oxygen demand(COD), total suspended solids(TSS), and oil and grease(O&G) concentrations. The CETP's compliance with respect to design standards and its operation were studied in detail. This paper highlights the results of RE and the coefficient of determination(R2) values obtained from the CETP data, estimates the pollutants removed at the highest and lowest rates over a period of time, and highlights the reasons for problem areas along with remedial measures. It was observed that, except O&G, all the parameters(BOD, COD, and TSS)showed fluctuations in removal efficiencies and their reliabilities. This situation can be improved by releasing effluent containing hydraulic and organic loading to the CETP as per standards and optimizing treatment processes, especially primary clari-flocculators and aeration tanks, both of which are important units of any CETP.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71671016)the School Fund of Beijing Information Science&Technology University(No.1935004)
文摘As one of the most important indexes to evaluate the quality of software, software reliability experiences an increasing development in recent years. We investigate a software reliability growth model(SRGM). The application of this model is to predict the occurrence of the software faults based on the non-homogeneous Poisson process(NHPP). Unlike the independent assumptions in other models, we consider fault dependency. The testing faults are divided into three classes in this model: leading faults, first-step dependent faults and second-step dependent faults. The leading faults occurring independently follow an NHPP, while the first-step dependent faults only become detectable after the related leading faults are detected. The second-step dependent faults can only be detected after the related first-step dependent faults are detected. Then, the combined model is built on the basis of the three sub-processes. Finally, an illustration based on real dataset is presented to verify the proposed model.
文摘Monte Carlo Simulations(MCS),commonly used for reliability analysis,require a large amount of data points to obtain acceptable accuracy,even if the Subset Simulation with Importance Sampling(SS/IS)methods are used.The Second Order Reliability Method(SORM)has proved to be an excellent rapid tool in the stochastic analysis of laminated composite structures,when compared to the slower MCS techniques.However,SORM requires differentiating the performance function with respect to each of the random variables involved in the simulation.The most suitable approach to do this is to use a symbolic solver,which renders the simulations very slow,although still faster than MCS.Moreover,the inability to obtain the derivative of the performance function with respect to some parameters,such as ply thickness,limits the capabilities of the classical SORM.In this work,a Neural Network-Based Second Order Reliability Method(NNBSORM)is developed to replace the finite element algorithm in the stochastic analysis of laminated composite plates in free vibration.Because of the ability to obtain expressions for the first and second derivatives of the NN system outputs with respect to any of its inputs,such as material properties,ply thicknesses and orientation angles,the need for using a symbolic solver to calculate the derivatives of the performance function no longer exists.The proposed approach is accordingly much faster,and easily allows for the consideration of ply thickness uncertainty.The present analysis showed that dealing with ply thicknesses as random variables results in 37%increase in the laminate’s probability of failure.
文摘On the basis of analyzing the reliability of the organization’ management chain of the large and medium- sized project in the construction period, the paper studies the factors influencing the reliability of the organi-zation management chain, which, corresponding to four elements of management chain – “Management Loop”, “Management Link”, “Management Chain”, and “Management Network”, can be summarized as project main body, interface management, connection sequence and management model. The paper then re-searches on the specific influencing factors from the above-mentioned four aspects.
文摘Aim: The purpose of this study was to develop a scale, “parental anxiety about pediatric emergency medical care services” (PAPEMCS), and to evaluate its psychometric properties. Methods: Participants were 14,510 parents with children 6 years old or younger in Kagawa Prefecture. Using each half of the participants, exploratory factor analysis was performed to generate items and factors for the PAPEMCS, and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to establish the construct validity. The generalizability of the PAPEMCS was evaluated by congruence tests and multigroup CFA. The usefulness of the PAPEMCS was established by the relationship between the PAPEMCS and non-urgent usage of pediatric emergency medical care services (PEMCS). Results: The PAPEMCS compromised 4 factors: “anxiety about quality of PEMCS”, “anxiety about PEMCS system”, “anxiety about public support”, and “anxiety about private support”. All reliability estimates (polychoric ordinal alpha coefficients, item-rest correlations), the item discrimination, 5 fit indices for CFA, the convergent validity (indicator reliabilities, composite reliabilities, average variance extracteds), and the discriminant validity fulfilled the acceptability thresholds. All generalizability estimates fulfilled the predetermined levels of acceptability (Tucker’s congruence coefficients, congruence tests, strict factorial invariance). The usefulness of the PAPEMCS was established by the higher scores of the PAPEMCS being related to non-urgent usage of PEMCS. Conclusions: The PAPEMCS demonstrated satisfactory reliability, validity, generalizability and usefulness. The PAPEMCS is useful to quantify the contents and extent of parental anxiety about PEMCS, and to clarify the mechanisms of non-urgent PEMCS usage.
基金Supported by the Foundation for Medical and Health Sci&Tech Innovation Project of Sanya(2016YW37)the Special Financial Grant from China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2014T70960)
文摘Objective To evaluate the reliability of three dimensional spiral fast spin echo pseudo-continuous arterial spin labeling(3 D pc-ASL) in measuring cerebral blood flow(CBF) with different post-labeling delay time(PLD) in the resting state and the right finger taping state.Methods 3 D pc-ASL and three dimensional T1-weighted fast spoiled gradient recalled echo(3 D T1-FSPGR) sequence were applied to eight healthy subjects twice at the same time each day for one week interval. ASL data acquisition was performed with post-labeling delay time(PLD) 1.5 seconds and 2.0 seconds in the resting state and the right finger taping state respectively. CBF mapping was calculated and CBF value of both the gray matter(GM) and white matter(WM) was automatically extracted. The reliability was evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient(ICC) and Bland and Altman plot.Results ICC of the GM(0.84) and WM(0.92) was lower at PLD 1.5 seconds than that(GM, 0.88; WM, 0.94) at PLD 2.0 seconds in the resting state, and ICC of GM(0.88) was higher in the right finger taping state than that in the resting state at PLD 1.5 seconds. ICC of the GM and WM was 0.71 and 0.78 for PLD 1.5 seconds and PLD 2.0 seconds in the resting state at the first scan, and ICC of the GM and WM was 0.83 and 0.79 at the second scan, respectively.Conclusion This work demonstrated that 3 D pc-ASL might be a reliable imaging technique to measure CBF over the whole brain at different PLD in the resting state or controlled state.
文摘Discrete software reliability measurement has a proper characteristic for describing a software reliability growth process which depends on a unit of the software fault-detection period, such as the number of test runs, the number of executed test cases. This paper discusses discrete software reliability measurement based on a discretized nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) model. Especially, we use a bootstrapping method in our discrete software reliability measurement for discussing the statistical inference on parameters and software reliability assessment measures of our model. Finally we show numerical examples of interval estimations based on our bootstrapping method for the several software reliability assessment measures by using actual data.
