Reference Evapotranspiration(ETo)iswidely used to assess totalwater loss between land and atmosphere due to its importance in maintaining the atmospheric water balance,especially in agricultural and environmental mana...Reference Evapotranspiration(ETo)iswidely used to assess totalwater loss between land and atmosphere due to its importance in maintaining the atmospheric water balance,especially in agricultural and environmental management.Accurate estimation of ETo is challenging due to its dependency onmultiple climatic variables,including temperature,humidity,and solar radiation,making it a complexmultivariate time-series problem.Traditional machine learning and deep learning models have been applied to forecast ETo,achieving moderate success.However,the introduction of transformer-based architectures in time-series forecasting has opened new possibilities formore precise ETo predictions.In this study,a novel algorithm for ETo forecasting is proposed,focusing on four transformer-based models:Vanilla Transformer,Informer,Autoformer,and FEDformer(Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer),applied to an ETo dataset from the Andalusian region.The novelty of the proposed algorithm lies in determining optimized window sizes based on seasonal trends and variations,which were then used with each model to enhance prediction accuracy.This custom window-sizing method allows the models to capture ETo’s unique seasonal patterns more effectively.Finally,results demonstrate that the Informer model outperformed other transformer-based models,achievingmean square error(MSE)values of 0.1404 and 0.1445 for forecast windows(15,7)and(30,15),respectively.The Vanilla Transformer also showed strong performance,closely following the Informermodel.These findings suggest that the proposed optimized window-sizing approach,combined with transformer-based architectures,is highly effective for ETo modelling.This novel strategy has the potential to be adapted in othermultivariate time-series forecasting tasks that require seasonality-sensitive approaches.展开更多
[ Objective] To discuss regional response of reference evapotranspiration （ ETo ） to global climate change and its influencing factors. [Method] Penman-Monteith equation was adopted to calculate ET0 in Australia fro...[ Objective] To discuss regional response of reference evapotranspiration （ ETo ） to global climate change and its influencing factors. [Method] Penman-Monteith equation was adopted to calculate ET0 in Australia from 1998 to 2007. Spatiotemporal change characteristics were analyzed by using GIS spatial analysis tools and relationships between ETo and main climate factors were also analyzed. [ Resultsl The results showed that multi-year average ET0 increased from the east and south part to the northwest part and inland, and its distribution was consistent with climate zones. Multi-year average ETo of the whole region was 1 750 mm, obtaining minimum and maximum values in 2000 and 2002 respectively. Regional ETo decreased in the order of summer, spring, autumn and winter; January and December got the highest monthly ET0, while June got the lowest value 79.55 mm. ETo positively correlated with mean temperature and solar radiation, R2 for each were 0.83 and 0.94, while the relationship between ETo and average relative humidity was negative, and precipitation had no significant relationship with ET0. [ Conclusion] This research could provide important reference for crop water requirement study and making irrigation method for Australia.展开更多
This study deals with temporal trends in the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration estimated from standard meteorological observations, observed pan evaporation, and four related meteorological variables during...This study deals with temporal trends in the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration estimated from standard meteorological observations, observed pan evaporation, and four related meteorological variables during 1970-2000 in the Yangtze River catchment. Relative contributions of the four meteorological variables to changes in the reference evapotranspiration are quantified. The results show that both the reference evapotranspiration and the pan evaporation have significant decreasing trends in the upper, the middle as well as in the whole Changjiang （Yangtze） River catchment at the 5% significance level, while the air temperature shows a significant increasing trend. The decreasing trend detected in the reference evapotranspiration can be attributed to the significant decreasing trends in the net radiation and the wind speed.展开更多
On the basis of daily meteorological data from 15 meteorological stations in the Heihe River Basin （HRB） during the period from 1959 to 2012, long-term trends of reference evapotranspiration （ET0） and key meteorol...On the basis of daily meteorological data from 15 meteorological stations in the Heihe River Basin （HRB） during the period from 1959 to 2012, long-term trends of reference evapotranspiration （ET0） and key meteorological factors that affect ET0 were analyzed using the Mann- Kendall test. The evaporation paradox was also investigated at 15 meteorological stations. In order to explore the contribution of key meteo- rological factors to the temporal variation of ET0, a sensitivity coefficient method was employed in this study. The results show that： （1） mean annual air temperature significantly increased at all 15 meteorological stations, while the mean annual ET0 decreased at most of sites; （2） the evaporation paradox did exist in the HRB, while the evaporation paradox was not continuous in space and time; and （3） relative humidity was the most sensitive meteorological factor with regard to the temporal variation of ET0 in the HRB, followed by wind speed, air temperature, and solar radiation. Air temperature and solar radiation contributed most to the temporal variation of ETo in the upper reaches; solar radiation and wind speed were the determining factors for the temporal variation of ET0 in the middle-lower reaches.展开更多
Linhe National Meteorological Station, a representative weather station in the Hetao Irrigation District of China, was selected as the research site for the present study. Changes in climatic variables and reference e...Linhe National Meteorological Station, a representative weather station in the Hetao Irrigation District of China, was selected as the research site for the present study. Changes in climatic variables and reference evapotranspiration （ET0 ） （estimated by the Penman-Monteith method） were detected using Mann-Kendall tests and Sen＇s slope estimator, respectively. The authors analyzed the relationship between the ET0 change and each climatic variable＇s change. From 1954 to 2012, the air temperature showed a significant increasing trend, whereas relative humidity and wind speed decreased dramatically. These changes resulted in a slight increase in ETo. The radiative component of total ET0 increased from 50% to 57%, indicating that this component made a greater contribution to the increase in total ETo than the aerodynamic component, especially during the crop growing season （from April to October）. The sensitivity analysis showed that ETo in Hetao is most sensitive to mean daily air temperature （11.8%）, followed by wind speed （-7.3%） and relative humidity （4.8%）. Changes in sunshine duration had only a minor effect on ET0 over the past 59 years.展开更多
Reference evapotranspiration （ETo） is often used to estimate actual evapotranspiration in water balance studies. In this study, the present and future spatial distributions and temporal trends of ETo in the Xiangjia...Reference evapotranspiration （ETo） is often used to estimate actual evapotranspiration in water balance studies. In this study, the present and future spatial distributions and temporal trends of ETo in the Xiangjiang River Basin （XJRB） in China were analyzed. ETo during the period from 1961 to 2010 was calculated with historical meteorological data using the FAO Penman-Monteith （FAO P-M） method, while ETo during the period from 2011 to 2100 was downscaled from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） outputs under two emission scenarios, representative concentration pathway 4.5 and representative concentration pathway 8.5 （RCP45 and RCP85）, using the statistical downscaling model （SDSM）. The spatial distribution and temporal trend of ETo were interpreted with the inverse distance weighted （IDW） method and Mann-Kendall test method, respectively. Results show that： （1） the mean annual ETo of the XJRB is 1 006.3 mm during the period from 1961 to 2010, and the lowest and highest values are found in the northeast and northwest parts due to the high latitude and spatial distribution of climatic factors, respectively; （2） the SDSM performs well in simulating the present ETo and can be used to predict the future ETo in the XJRB; and （3） CMIP5 predicts upward trends in annual ETo under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios during the period from 2011 to 2100. Compared with the reference period （1961-1990）, ETo increases by 9.8%, 12.6%, and 15.6% under the RCP45 scenario and 10.2%, 19.1%, and 27.3% under the RCP85 scenario during the periods from 2011 to 2040, from 2041 to 2070, and from 2071 to 2100, respectively. The predicted increasing ETo under the RCP85 scenario is greater than that under the RCP45 scenario during the period from 2011 to 2100.展开更多
Reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0))is a vital component in hydrometeorological research and is widely applied to various aspects,such as water resource management,hydrological modeling,irrigation deployment,and under...Reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0))is a vital component in hydrometeorological research and is widely applied to various aspects,such as water resource management,hydrological modeling,irrigation deployment,and understanding and predicting the influence of hydrologic cycle variations on future climate and land use changes.Quantifying the influence of various meteorological variables on ET_(0) is not only helpful for predicting actual evapotranspiration but also has important implications for understanding the impact of global climate change on regional water resources.Based on daily data from 69 meteorological stations,the present study analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of ET_(0) and major contributing meteorological variables to ET_(0) from 1960 to 2017 by the segmented re-gression model,Mann-Kendall test,wavelet analysis,generalized linear model,and detrending method.The results showed that the annual ET_(0) declined slightly because of the combined effects of the reduction in solar radiation and wind speed and the increase in vapor pressure deficit(VPD)and average air temperature in the Loess Plateau(LP)during the past 58 yr.Four change points were detected in 1972,1990,1999,and 2010,and the annual ET_(0) showed a zigzag change trend of‘increasing-decreasing-increasing-decreasing-increasing’.Wind speed and VPD played a leading role in the ET_(0) changes from 1960 to 1990 and from 1991 to 2017,respectively.This study confirms that the dominant meteorological factors affecting ET_(0) had undergone significant changes due to global climate change and vegetation greening in the past 58 years,and VPD had become the major factor controlling the ET_(0) changes on the LP.The data presented herein will contribute to increasing the accuracy of predictions on future changes in ET_(0).展开更多
Drought,which restricts the sustainable development of agriculture,ecological health,and social economy,is affected by a variety of factors.It is widely accepted that a single variable cannot fully reflect the charact...Drought,which restricts the sustainable development of agriculture,ecological health,and social economy,is affected by a variety of factors.It is widely accepted that a single variable cannot fully reflect the characteristics of drought events.Studying precipitation,reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0)),and vegetation yield can derive information to help conserve water resources in grassland ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions.In this study,the interactions of precipitation,ET_(0),and vegetation yield in Darhan Muminggan Joint Banner(DMJB),a desert steppe in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China were explored using two-dimensional(2D)and three-dimensional(3D)joint distribution models.Three types of Copula functions were applied to quantitatively analyze the joint distribution probability of different combinations of precipitation,ET_(0),and vegetation yield.For the precipitation–ET_(0)dry–wet type,the 2D joint distribution probability with precipitation≤245.69 mm/a or ET_(0)≥959.20 mm/a in DMJB was approximately 0.60,while the joint distribution probability with precipitation≤245.69 mm/a and ET_(0)≥959.20 mm/a was approximately 0.20.Correspondingly,the joint return period that at least one of the two events(precipitation was dry or ET_(0)was wet)occurred was 2 a,and the co-occurrence return period that both events(precipitation was dry and ET_(0)was wet)occurred was 5 a.Under this condition,the interval between dry and wet events would be short,the water supply and demand were unbalanced,and the water demand of vegetation would not be met.In addition,when precipitation remained stable and ET_(0)increased,the 3D joint distribution probability that vegetation yield would decrease due to water shortage in the precipitation–ET_(0)dry–wet years could reach up to 0.60–0.70.In future work,irrigation activities and water allocation criteria need to be implemented to increase vegetation yield and the safety of water resources in the desert steppe of Inner Mongolia.展开更多
Climate change affects the environment and natural resources immensely. Rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration are major parameters of climate affecting changes in the environment. Evapotrans- piration plays a k...Climate change affects the environment and natural resources immensely. Rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration are major parameters of climate affecting changes in the environment. Evapotrans- piration plays a key role in crop production and water balance of a region, one of the major parameters affected by climate change. The reference evapotranspiration or ETo is a calculated parameter used in this research. In the present study, changes in the future rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, and ETo have been shown by downscaling the HadCM3 （Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3） model data. The selected study area is located in a part of the Narmada river basin area in Madhya Pradesh in central India. The downscaled outputs of projected rainfall, ETo and temperatures have been shown for the 21st century with the HADCM3 data of A2 scenario by the Least Square Support Vector Machine （LS-SVM） model. The efficiency of the LS-SVM model was measured by different statistical methods. The selected predictors show considerable correlation with the rainfall and temperature and the application of this model has been done in a basin area which is an agriculture based region and is sensitive to the change of rainfall and temperature. Results showed an increase in the future rainfall, temperatures and ETo. The temperature increase is projected in the high rise of minimum temperature in winter time and the highest increase in maximum temperature is projected in the pre-monsoon season or from March to May. Highest increase is projected in the 2080s in 2081-2091 and 2091-2099 in maximum temperature and 2091-2099 in minimum temperature in all the stations. Winter maximum temperature has been observed to have increased in the future. High rainfall is also observed with higher ETo in some decades. Two peaks of the increase are observed in ETo in the April-May and in the October. Variation in these parameters due to climate change might have an impact on the future water resource of the study area, which is mainly an agricultural based region, and will help in proper planning and management.展开更多
It is important for regional water resources management to know the agricultural water consumption information several months in advance.Forecasting reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0))in the next few months is import...It is important for regional water resources management to know the agricultural water consumption information several months in advance.Forecasting reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0))in the next few months is important for irrigation and reservoir management.Studies on forecasting of multiple-month ahead ET_(0) using machine learning models have not been reported yet.Besides,machine learning models such as the XGBoost model has multiple parameters that need to be tuned,and traditional methods can get stuck in a regional optimal solution and fail to obtain a global optimal solution.This study investigated the performance of the hybrid extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)model coupled with the Grey Wolf Optimizer(GWO)algorithm for forecasting multi-step ahead ET_(0)(1-3 months ahead),compared with three conventional machine learning models,i.e.,standalone XGBoost,multi-layer perceptron(MLP)and M5 model tree(M5)models in the subtropical zone of China.The results showed that theGWO-XGB model generally performed better than the other three machine learning models in forecasting 1-3 months ahead ET_(0),followed by the XGB,M5 and MLP models with very small differences among the three models.The GWO-XGB model performed best in autumn,while the MLP model performed slightly better than the other three models in summer.It is thus suggested to apply the MLP model for ET_(0) forecasting in summer but use the GWO-XGB model in other seasons.展开更多
Abstract： Estimation of evapotranspiration （ET） for mountain ecosystem is of absolute importance since it serves as an important component in balancing the hydrologic cycle. The present study evaluates the performa...Abstract： Estimation of evapotranspiration （ET） for mountain ecosystem is of absolute importance since it serves as an important component in balancing the hydrologic cycle. The present study evaluates the performance of original and location specific calibrated Hargreaves equation （HARG） with the estimates of Food and Agricultural Organization （FAO） Penman Monteith （PM） method for higher altitudes in East Sikkim, India. The results show that the uncalibrated HARG model underestimates ET0 by 0.35 mm day^-1 whereas the results are significantly improved by regional calibration of the model. In addition, this paper also presents the variability in the trajectory associated with the climatic variables with the changing climate in the study site. Non- parametric Mann-Kendall （MK） test was used to investigate and understand the mean monthly trend of eight climatic parameters including reference evapotranspiration （ET0） for the period of 1985 - 2009. Trend of ET0 was estimated for the calculations done by FAO PM equation. The outcomes of the trend analysis show significant increasing （p ≤ 0.05） trend represented by higher Z-values, through MK test, for net radiation （Rn）, maximum temperature （Tmax） and minimum temperature （Train）, especially in the first months of the year. Whereas, significant （0.01 ≥ p ≤0.05） decreasing trend in vapor pressure deficit （VPD） and precipitation （P） is observed throughout the year. Declining trend in sunshine duration, VPD and ET0 is found in spring （March - May） and monsoon （June - November） season. The result displays significant （0.01≤ p ≤0.05） decreasing ET0 trend between （June - December） except in July, exhibiting the positive relation with VPD followed by sunshine duration at the station. Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of trend analysis of ET0 and other climatic variables for efficient planning and managing the agricultural practices, in identifying the changes in the meteorological parameters and to accurately assess the hydrologic water balance of the hilly regions.展开更多
Considering the importance of reference evapotranspiration (RET) in agriculture, hydrology and meteorology, the research problem was taken to assess the RET during winter season under projected climatic situation of W...Considering the importance of reference evapotranspiration (RET) in agriculture, hydrology and meteorology, the research problem was taken to assess the RET during winter season under projected climatic situation of West Bengal, India. The Penman-Monteith method was used in the study as it is the most accurate method of estimating RET. However, validation of the output of the equation was done with the help of observed data set. The data analysis was carried out using NCAR Command Language (NCL). The result clearly shows that the reference ET of the study area will be increased in the tune of 13% to 32% in the year 2050 compared to present RET level. Analysis of actual rainfall data shows a decreasing trend of winter rainfall in the study region. The projected rainfall data also follows the same pattern. Thus, the combination of low rainfall and higher ET value will demand more irrigation requirement for winter crops in West Bengal. The temporal changes of RET on decadal basis and spatial variation of RET for each decade have been observed and discussed in the paper.展开更多
The reference evapotranspiration was calculated using Penman-Monteith method proposed. This method was evaluated on data measured by lysimeter in Szarvas experimental station in Hungary. The results of the two methods...The reference evapotranspiration was calculated using Penman-Monteith method proposed. This method was evaluated on data measured by lysimeter in Szarvas experimental station in Hungary. The results of the two methods were in good agreement. However, this method requires an amount of data which is not available at all sites of meteorological measurement. Therefore it was necessary to investigate which elements influencing evapotranspiration are important and which elements are less important. With the help of investigation was indicated that radiation and vapor pressure deficit play important role in determination of reference evapotranspiration. Taking into account this there was two possibilities to calculate evapotranspiration. One of these is to use Penman-Monteith formula with constant wind speed as advised by Allen. Another one is to neglect wind speed data. Both methods were investigated and the method with constant wind speed was found better in a subhumid climatic condition of Hungary.展开更多
Variations in reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0)) and drought characteristics play a key role in the effect of climate change on water cycle and associated ecohydrological patterns.The accurate estimation of ET_(0) i...Variations in reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0)) and drought characteristics play a key role in the effect of climate change on water cycle and associated ecohydrological patterns.The accurate estimation of ET_(0) is still a challenge due to the lack of meteorological data and the heterogeneity of hydrological system.Although there is an increasing trend in extreme drought events with global climate change,the relationship between ET_(0) and aridity index in karst areas has been poorly studied.In this study,we used the Penman-Monteith method based on a long time series of meteorological data from 1951 to 2015 to calculate ET_(0)in a typical karst area,Guilin,Southwest China.The temporal variations in climate variables,ET_(0)and aridity index(AI)were analyzed with the Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression to determine the climatic characteristics,associated controlling factors of ET_(0) variations,and further to estimate the relationship between ET_(0) and AI.We found that the mean,maximum and minimum temperatures had increased significantly during the 65-year study period,while sunshine duration,wind speed and relative humidity exhibited significant decreasing trends.The annual ET_(0) showed a significant decreasing trend at the rate of−8.02 mm/10a.However,significant increase in air temperature should have contributed to the enhancement of ET_(0),indicating an“evaporation paradox”.In comparison,AI showed a slightly declining trend of−0.0005/a during 1951-2015.The change in sunshine duration was the major factor causing the decrease in ET_(0),followed by wind speed.AI had a higher correlation with precipitation amount,indicating that the variations of AI was more dependent on precipitation,but not substantially dependent on the ET_(0).Although AI was not directly related to ET_(0),ET_(0)had a major contribution to seasonal AI changes.The seasonal variations of ET_(0)played a critical role in dryness/wetness changes to regulate water and energy supply,which can lead to seasonal droughts or water shortages in karst areas.Overall,these findings provide an important reference for the management of agricultural production and water resources,and have an important implication for drought in karst regions of China.展开更多
Reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_(0)) is essential for determining crop water requirements and developing irrigation strategies.In this study,ET_(0) was calculated via the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith model,and the spat...Reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_(0)) is essential for determining crop water requirements and developing irrigation strategies.In this study,ET_(0) was calculated via the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith model,and the spatiotemporal variations in ET_(0) over China from 1960 to 2019 were analyzed.We then quantified the contributions of five driving factors(air temperature,wind speed,relative humidity,sunshine hours,and CO_(2) concentration)to the ET_(0) trends via a detrending experiment.The results revealed that nationwide ET_(0) showed no significant(p>0.05)decreasing trend from 1960 to 2019,with a trend of−8.56×10^(−2)mm a^(−2).The average temperature and wind speed were identified as the dominant factors affecting ET_(0)trends at the national scale.The contributions of the driving factors to the ET_(0) trends were ranked in the following order:average temperature(21.3%)>wind speed(−15.63%)>sunshine hours(−11.99%)>CO_(2) concentration(6.36%)>relative humidity(3.58%).Spatially,the dominant factors influencing the ET_(0) trends varied widely.In the southeastern region,average temperature and sunshine hours dominated the trends of ET_(0),whereas wind speed and average temperature were the dominant factors in the northwestern region.The findings provide valuable insights into the dominant factors affecting ET_(0)trends in China and highlight the importance of considering different driving factors in calculating crop water requirements.展开更多
The study planed to identify a suitable alternative to the FAO 56 Penman-Monteith(FAO56PM)equation for calculating reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0))from chosen te mperature and radiation based models utilizing mont...The study planed to identify a suitable alternative to the FAO 56 Penman-Monteith(FAO56PM)equation for calculating reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0))from chosen te mperature and radiation based models utilizing monthly meteorological data from 30 destinations in diverse agro-ecologial regions of the Northeast(NE)India ie,Assam Bengal Plain(ABP),eastern Himalaya(EH),and the northeastern hilly(NEH)region.Radiation-based IRMAK3 most appropriate in the ABP(weighted root mean square deviation,WRMSD=0.17 mm d^(-1),r^(2)=0.98,for Nagrakata),and TURC model being in the first three rank of most of the sites,with the lowest error and highest correlation in NEH(WRMSD=0.10 mm d^(-1),r^(2)=0.92,for Shillong),and EH(WRMSD=0.23 mm d^(-1),r^(2)=-0.95,for Gangtok).Findings reveal that IRMAK3 and TURC models performed equally well and were observed to be the best among selected modets for the majority of stations followed by FAO24 Blaney-Criddle(FAO24BC),and 1957MAKK Pair-wise regession equations were developed for preferred FAO56PM ET_(0) estimates to ET_(0) estimates by alternative methods.Cross-correlation of eighteen chose methods demonstrated that the five equations(i.e.four radiation-and one temperature-based)performed eceptionally well when contrasted with the FAO56PM model,thus being advised for assessing ET_(0)。under limiting data conditions as have yielded a better estimate of ET_(0) with a small error.展开更多
Evapotranspiration is an essential component of the hydrological cycle that is of particular interest for water resource planning.Its quantification is helpful in irrigation scheduling,water balance studies,water allo...Evapotranspiration is an essential component of the hydrological cycle that is of particular interest for water resource planning.Its quantification is helpful in irrigation scheduling,water balance studies,water allocation,etc.Modelling of reference evapotranspiration(ET0)using both gene expression programming(GEP)and artificial neural network(ANN)techniques was done using the daily meteorological data of the Pantnagar region,India,from 2010 to 2019.A total of 15 combinations of inputs were used in developing the ET0 models.The model with the least number of inputs consisted of maximum and minimum air temperatures,whereas the model with the highest number of inputs consisted of maximum air temperature,minimum air temperature,mean relative humidity,number of sunshine hours,wind speed at 2mheight and extra-terrestrial radiation as inputs and with ET0 as the output for all the models.All the GEP models were developed for a single functional set and pre-defined genetic operator values,while the best structure in each ANN model was found based on the performance during the testing phase.It was found that ANN models were superior to GEP models for the estimation purpose.It was evident from the reduction in RMSE values ranging from 2%to 56%during training and testing phases in all the ANN models compared with GEP models.The ANN models showed an increase of about 0.96%to 9.72%of R2 value compared to the respective GEP models.The comparative study of these models with multiple linear regression(MLR)depicted that the ANN and GEP models were superior to MLR models.展开更多
This study aims to evaluate the effects of climate change and El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)on reference evapotranspiration(ET_(o))in the climate sub-regions of South Vietnam(SVN)and the role of the related meteor...This study aims to evaluate the effects of climate change and El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)on reference evapotranspiration(ET_(o))in the climate sub-regions of South Vietnam(SVN)and the role of the related meteorological variables.The trend analysis shows that ET_(o) has been increasing quite clearly,especially during the rainy season.By examining the contribution of meteorological variables to the increase of ET_(o),it is indicated that temperature is the main contributor.Among the meteorological variables that are related to ET_(o),temperature is also the factor that has gained the most significant increase.Analysis of variance reveals that there is no difference in the increase of ET_(o) among the climate sub-regions of SVN.The effect of ENSO on ET_(o) is assessed based on the difference in the mean value of ET_(o) between the El Nino and La Nina phases.The results show that this difference is most obvious from October to May,and the main factor contributing to the increase is not temperature but sunshine hours.The difference in sunshine hours between the warm and cold phases in these months is around one hour per day,contributing about58%-86%to the ET_(o) difference.Further analysis of variance shows that ENSO has different levels of influences on ET_(o) in the climate sub-regions.Compared to the increase in ET_(o) due to climate change over the past 40 years,the ET_(o) difference between El Nino and La Nina phases is many times higher.In addition,since the effect of ENSO on ET_(o) is most obvious in the study area during the dry season,it is much stronger.In order to mitigate the effect of ENSO on drought in this area,monitoring and forecasting meteorological variables that have the main contribution to the variation of ET_(o),including the number of sunshine hours,should be promoted.展开更多
In Bosnia and Herzegovina(BiH),the number of weather stations(WS)that are monitoring all climatic parameters required for FAO-56 Penman-Monteith(FAO-PM)equation is limited.In fact,it is of great need and importance to...In Bosnia and Herzegovina(BiH),the number of weather stations(WS)that are monitoring all climatic parameters required for FAO-56 Penman-Monteith(FAO-PM)equation is limited.In fact,it is of great need and importance to achieve the possibility of calculating reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0))for every WS in BiH(around 150),regardless of the number of climate parameters which they collect.Solving this problem is possible by using alternative equations that require less climatological data for reliable estimation of daily and monthly ET0.The main objective of this study was to validate and determine,compared to the FAO-PM method,a suitable and reliable alternative ET0 equations that are requiring less input data and have a simple calculation procedure,with a special focus on Thornthwaite and Turc as methods previously often used in BiH.To fulfill this objective,12 alternative ET0 calculation methods and 21 locally adjusted versions of same equations were validated against FAO-PM ET0 method.Daily climatic data,recorded at sixteen WS,including mean maximum and minimum air temperature(°C),precipitation(mm),minimum and maximum relative humidity(%),wind speed(m s^(−1))and sunshine hours(h)for the period 1961–2015(55 years)were collected and averaged over each month.Several types of statistical indicators:the determination coefficient(R^(2)),mean bias error(MBE),the variance of the distribution of differences(sd^(2)),the root mean square difference(RMSD)and the mean absolute error(MAE)were used to assess alternative ET_(0) equation performance.The results,confirmed by various statistical indicators,shows that the most suitable and reliable alternative equation for monthly ET0 calculation in BiH is the locally adjusted Trajkovic method.Adjusted Hargreaves-Samani method was the second best performing method.The two most frequently used ET_(0) calculation methods in BiH until now,Thornthwaite and Turc,were ranked low.展开更多
A non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict the responses of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) to perturbation of four climate variables in Tao'er River Basin of the northeaste...A non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict the responses of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) to perturbation of four climate variables in Tao'er River Basin of the northeastern China. Mean monthly ET0 and yearly ET0 from 1961 to 2005 were estimated with the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith Equation. A 45-year historical dataset of average monthly maximum/minimum air temperature, mean air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and relative humidity from 15 meteorological stations was used in the analysis. Results show that: 1) Sensitivity coefficients of wind speed, air temperature and sunshine hours were positive except for those of air tem- perature of Arxan Meteorological Station, while those of relative humidity were all negative. Relative humidity was the most sensitive variable in general for the Tao'er River Basin, followed by sunshine hours, wind speed and air tem- perature. 2) Similar to climate variable, monthly sensitivity coefficients exhibit large annual fluctuations. 3) Sensitivity coefficients for four climate variables all showed significant trends in seasonal/yearly series. Also, sensitivity coefficients of air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed all showed significant trends in spring. 4) Among all sensitiv- ity coefficients, the average yearly sensitivity coefficient of relative humidity was highest throughout the basin and showed largest spatial variability. Longitudinal distribution of sensitivity coefficients for air temperature, relative hu- midity and sunshine hours was also found, which was similar to the distribution of the three climate variables.展开更多
基金funded by Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University and Researchers Supporting Project number(PNURSP2024R136),Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University,Riyadh,Saudi Arabia.
文摘Reference Evapotranspiration(ETo)iswidely used to assess totalwater loss between land and atmosphere due to its importance in maintaining the atmospheric water balance,especially in agricultural and environmental management.Accurate estimation of ETo is challenging due to its dependency onmultiple climatic variables,including temperature,humidity,and solar radiation,making it a complexmultivariate time-series problem.Traditional machine learning and deep learning models have been applied to forecast ETo,achieving moderate success.However,the introduction of transformer-based architectures in time-series forecasting has opened new possibilities formore precise ETo predictions.In this study,a novel algorithm for ETo forecasting is proposed,focusing on four transformer-based models:Vanilla Transformer,Informer,Autoformer,and FEDformer(Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer),applied to an ETo dataset from the Andalusian region.The novelty of the proposed algorithm lies in determining optimized window sizes based on seasonal trends and variations,which were then used with each model to enhance prediction accuracy.This custom window-sizing method allows the models to capture ETo’s unique seasonal patterns more effectively.Finally,results demonstrate that the Informer model outperformed other transformer-based models,achievingmean square error(MSE)values of 0.1404 and 0.1445 for forecast windows(15,7)and(30,15),respectively.The Vanilla Transformer also showed strong performance,closely following the Informermodel.These findings suggest that the proposed optimized window-sizing approach,combined with transformer-based architectures,is highly effective for ETo modelling.This novel strategy has the potential to be adapted in othermultivariate time-series forecasting tasks that require seasonality-sensitive approaches.
基金Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.KZCX-XY-340)the Frontier Field Program of NEIGAE-CAS (No.C08Y46)~~
文摘[ Objective] To discuss regional response of reference evapotranspiration （ ETo ） to global climate change and its influencing factors. [Method] Penman-Monteith equation was adopted to calculate ET0 in Australia from 1998 to 2007. Spatiotemporal change characteristics were analyzed by using GIS spatial analysis tools and relationships between ETo and main climate factors were also analyzed. [ Resultsl The results showed that multi-year average ET0 increased from the east and south part to the northwest part and inland, and its distribution was consistent with climate zones. Multi-year average ETo of the whole region was 1 750 mm, obtaining minimum and maximum values in 2000 and 2002 respectively. Regional ETo decreased in the order of summer, spring, autumn and winter; January and December got the highest monthly ET0, while June got the lowest value 79.55 mm. ETo positively correlated with mean temperature and solar radiation, R2 for each were 0.83 and 0.94, while the relationship between ETo and average relative humidity was negative, and precipitation had no significant relationship with ET0. [ Conclusion] This research could provide important reference for crop water requirement study and making irrigation method for Australia.
文摘This study deals with temporal trends in the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration estimated from standard meteorological observations, observed pan evaporation, and four related meteorological variables during 1970-2000 in the Yangtze River catchment. Relative contributions of the four meteorological variables to changes in the reference evapotranspiration are quantified. The results show that both the reference evapotranspiration and the pan evaporation have significant decreasing trends in the upper, the middle as well as in the whole Changjiang （Yangtze） River catchment at the 5% significance level, while the air temperature shows a significant increasing trend. The decreasing trend detected in the reference evapotranspiration can be attributed to the significant decreasing trends in the net radiation and the wind speed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.91125015)the Central Nonprofit Research Institutes Fundamental Research of the Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research(Grant No.HYK-JBYW-2013-18)
文摘On the basis of daily meteorological data from 15 meteorological stations in the Heihe River Basin （HRB） during the period from 1959 to 2012, long-term trends of reference evapotranspiration （ET0） and key meteorological factors that affect ET0 were analyzed using the Mann- Kendall test. The evaporation paradox was also investigated at 15 meteorological stations. In order to explore the contribution of key meteo- rological factors to the temporal variation of ET0, a sensitivity coefficient method was employed in this study. The results show that： （1） mean annual air temperature significantly increased at all 15 meteorological stations, while the mean annual ET0 decreased at most of sites; （2） the evaporation paradox did exist in the HRB, while the evaporation paradox was not continuous in space and time; and （3） relative humidity was the most sensitive meteorological factor with regard to the temporal variation of ET0 in the HRB, followed by wind speed, air temperature, and solar radiation. Air temperature and solar radiation contributed most to the temporal variation of ETo in the upper reaches; solar radiation and wind speed were the determining factors for the temporal variation of ET0 in the middle-lower reaches.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51179005)the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry of the Ministry of Water Resources of China(Grant No.201401036)
文摘Linhe National Meteorological Station, a representative weather station in the Hetao Irrigation District of China, was selected as the research site for the present study. Changes in climatic variables and reference evapotranspiration （ET0 ） （estimated by the Penman-Monteith method） were detected using Mann-Kendall tests and Sen＇s slope estimator, respectively. The authors analyzed the relationship between the ET0 change and each climatic variable＇s change. From 1954 to 2012, the air temperature showed a significant increasing trend, whereas relative humidity and wind speed decreased dramatically. These changes resulted in a slight increase in ETo. The radiative component of total ET0 increased from 50% to 57%, indicating that this component made a greater contribution to the increase in total ETo than the aerodynamic component, especially during the crop growing season （from April to October）. The sensitivity analysis showed that ETo in Hetao is most sensitive to mean daily air temperature （11.8%）, followed by wind speed （-7.3%） and relative humidity （4.8%）. Changes in sunshine duration had only a minor effect on ET0 over the past 59 years.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51339004 and 51279138)
文摘Reference evapotranspiration （ETo） is often used to estimate actual evapotranspiration in water balance studies. In this study, the present and future spatial distributions and temporal trends of ETo in the Xiangjiang River Basin （XJRB） in China were analyzed. ETo during the period from 1961 to 2010 was calculated with historical meteorological data using the FAO Penman-Monteith （FAO P-M） method, while ETo during the period from 2011 to 2100 was downscaled from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） outputs under two emission scenarios, representative concentration pathway 4.5 and representative concentration pathway 8.5 （RCP45 and RCP85）, using the statistical downscaling model （SDSM）. The spatial distribution and temporal trend of ETo were interpreted with the inverse distance weighted （IDW） method and Mann-Kendall test method, respectively. Results show that： （1） the mean annual ETo of the XJRB is 1 006.3 mm during the period from 1961 to 2010, and the lowest and highest values are found in the northeast and northwest parts due to the high latitude and spatial distribution of climatic factors, respectively; （2） the SDSM performs well in simulating the present ETo and can be used to predict the future ETo in the XJRB; and （3） CMIP5 predicts upward trends in annual ETo under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios during the period from 2011 to 2100. Compared with the reference period （1961-1990）, ETo increases by 9.8%, 12.6%, and 15.6% under the RCP45 scenario and 10.2%, 19.1%, and 27.3% under the RCP85 scenario during the periods from 2011 to 2040, from 2041 to 2070, and from 2071 to 2100, respectively. The predicted increasing ETo under the RCP85 scenario is greater than that under the RCP45 scenario during the period from 2011 to 2100.
基金Under the auspices of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Strategic Leading Science and Technology Project Category A(No.XDA23100203)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42071144,41501093,41771118)+1 种基金Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFC0501601)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.GK202003060)。
文摘Reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0))is a vital component in hydrometeorological research and is widely applied to various aspects,such as water resource management,hydrological modeling,irrigation deployment,and understanding and predicting the influence of hydrologic cycle variations on future climate and land use changes.Quantifying the influence of various meteorological variables on ET_(0) is not only helpful for predicting actual evapotranspiration but also has important implications for understanding the impact of global climate change on regional water resources.Based on daily data from 69 meteorological stations,the present study analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of ET_(0) and major contributing meteorological variables to ET_(0) from 1960 to 2017 by the segmented re-gression model,Mann-Kendall test,wavelet analysis,generalized linear model,and detrending method.The results showed that the annual ET_(0) declined slightly because of the combined effects of the reduction in solar radiation and wind speed and the increase in vapor pressure deficit(VPD)and average air temperature in the Loess Plateau(LP)during the past 58 yr.Four change points were detected in 1972,1990,1999,and 2010,and the annual ET_(0) showed a zigzag change trend of‘increasing-decreasing-increasing-decreasing-increasing’.Wind speed and VPD played a leading role in the ET_(0) changes from 1960 to 1990 and from 1991 to 2017,respectively.This study confirms that the dominant meteorological factors affecting ET_(0) had undergone significant changes due to global climate change and vegetation greening in the past 58 years,and VPD had become the major factor controlling the ET_(0) changes on the LP.The data presented herein will contribute to increasing the accuracy of predictions on future changes in ET_(0).
基金This research was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China(2022QN04003)the Central Government to Guide Local Scientific and Technological Development(2021ZY0031).
文摘Drought,which restricts the sustainable development of agriculture,ecological health,and social economy,is affected by a variety of factors.It is widely accepted that a single variable cannot fully reflect the characteristics of drought events.Studying precipitation,reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0)),and vegetation yield can derive information to help conserve water resources in grassland ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions.In this study,the interactions of precipitation,ET_(0),and vegetation yield in Darhan Muminggan Joint Banner(DMJB),a desert steppe in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China were explored using two-dimensional(2D)and three-dimensional(3D)joint distribution models.Three types of Copula functions were applied to quantitatively analyze the joint distribution probability of different combinations of precipitation,ET_(0),and vegetation yield.For the precipitation–ET_(0)dry–wet type,the 2D joint distribution probability with precipitation≤245.69 mm/a or ET_(0)≥959.20 mm/a in DMJB was approximately 0.60,while the joint distribution probability with precipitation≤245.69 mm/a and ET_(0)≥959.20 mm/a was approximately 0.20.Correspondingly,the joint return period that at least one of the two events(precipitation was dry or ET_(0)was wet)occurred was 2 a,and the co-occurrence return period that both events(precipitation was dry and ET_(0)was wet)occurred was 5 a.Under this condition,the interval between dry and wet events would be short,the water supply and demand were unbalanced,and the water demand of vegetation would not be met.In addition,when precipitation remained stable and ET_(0)increased,the 3D joint distribution probability that vegetation yield would decrease due to water shortage in the precipitation–ET_(0)dry–wet years could reach up to 0.60–0.70.In future work,irrigation activities and water allocation criteria need to be implemented to increase vegetation yield and the safety of water resources in the desert steppe of Inner Mongolia.
基金the University Grant Commission(UGC) for providing financial assistance in this research
文摘Climate change affects the environment and natural resources immensely. Rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration are major parameters of climate affecting changes in the environment. Evapotrans- piration plays a key role in crop production and water balance of a region, one of the major parameters affected by climate change. The reference evapotranspiration or ETo is a calculated parameter used in this research. In the present study, changes in the future rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, and ETo have been shown by downscaling the HadCM3 （Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3） model data. The selected study area is located in a part of the Narmada river basin area in Madhya Pradesh in central India. The downscaled outputs of projected rainfall, ETo and temperatures have been shown for the 21st century with the HADCM3 data of A2 scenario by the Least Square Support Vector Machine （LS-SVM） model. The efficiency of the LS-SVM model was measured by different statistical methods. The selected predictors show considerable correlation with the rainfall and temperature and the application of this model has been done in a basin area which is an agriculture based region and is sensitive to the change of rainfall and temperature. Results showed an increase in the future rainfall, temperatures and ETo. The temperature increase is projected in the high rise of minimum temperature in winter time and the highest increase in maximum temperature is projected in the pre-monsoon season or from March to May. Highest increase is projected in the 2080s in 2081-2091 and 2091-2099 in maximum temperature and 2091-2099 in minimum temperature in all the stations. Winter maximum temperature has been observed to have increased in the future. High rainfall is also observed with higher ETo in some decades. Two peaks of the increase are observed in ETo in the April-May and in the October. Variation in these parameters due to climate change might have an impact on the future water resource of the study area, which is mainly an agricultural based region, and will help in proper planning and management.
基金This study was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51879196,51790533,51709143)Jiangxi Natural Science Foundation of China(No.20181BAB206045).
文摘It is important for regional water resources management to know the agricultural water consumption information several months in advance.Forecasting reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0))in the next few months is important for irrigation and reservoir management.Studies on forecasting of multiple-month ahead ET_(0) using machine learning models have not been reported yet.Besides,machine learning models such as the XGBoost model has multiple parameters that need to be tuned,and traditional methods can get stuck in a regional optimal solution and fail to obtain a global optimal solution.This study investigated the performance of the hybrid extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)model coupled with the Grey Wolf Optimizer(GWO)algorithm for forecasting multi-step ahead ET_(0)(1-3 months ahead),compared with three conventional machine learning models,i.e.,standalone XGBoost,multi-layer perceptron(MLP)and M5 model tree(M5)models in the subtropical zone of China.The results showed that theGWO-XGB model generally performed better than the other three machine learning models in forecasting 1-3 months ahead ET_(0),followed by the XGB,M5 and MLP models with very small differences among the three models.The GWO-XGB model performed best in autumn,while the MLP model performed slightly better than the other three models in summer.It is thus suggested to apply the MLP model for ET_(0) forecasting in summer but use the GWO-XGB model in other seasons.
文摘Abstract： Estimation of evapotranspiration （ET） for mountain ecosystem is of absolute importance since it serves as an important component in balancing the hydrologic cycle. The present study evaluates the performance of original and location specific calibrated Hargreaves equation （HARG） with the estimates of Food and Agricultural Organization （FAO） Penman Monteith （PM） method for higher altitudes in East Sikkim, India. The results show that the uncalibrated HARG model underestimates ET0 by 0.35 mm day^-1 whereas the results are significantly improved by regional calibration of the model. In addition, this paper also presents the variability in the trajectory associated with the climatic variables with the changing climate in the study site. Non- parametric Mann-Kendall （MK） test was used to investigate and understand the mean monthly trend of eight climatic parameters including reference evapotranspiration （ET0） for the period of 1985 - 2009. Trend of ET0 was estimated for the calculations done by FAO PM equation. The outcomes of the trend analysis show significant increasing （p ≤ 0.05） trend represented by higher Z-values, through MK test, for net radiation （Rn）, maximum temperature （Tmax） and minimum temperature （Train）, especially in the first months of the year. Whereas, significant （0.01 ≥ p ≤0.05） decreasing trend in vapor pressure deficit （VPD） and precipitation （P） is observed throughout the year. Declining trend in sunshine duration, VPD and ET0 is found in spring （March - May） and monsoon （June - November） season. The result displays significant （0.01≤ p ≤0.05） decreasing ET0 trend between （June - December） except in July, exhibiting the positive relation with VPD followed by sunshine duration at the station. Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of trend analysis of ET0 and other climatic variables for efficient planning and managing the agricultural practices, in identifying the changes in the meteorological parameters and to accurately assess the hydrologic water balance of the hilly regions.
文摘Considering the importance of reference evapotranspiration (RET) in agriculture, hydrology and meteorology, the research problem was taken to assess the RET during winter season under projected climatic situation of West Bengal, India. The Penman-Monteith method was used in the study as it is the most accurate method of estimating RET. However, validation of the output of the equation was done with the help of observed data set. The data analysis was carried out using NCAR Command Language (NCL). The result clearly shows that the reference ET of the study area will be increased in the tune of 13% to 32% in the year 2050 compared to present RET level. Analysis of actual rainfall data shows a decreasing trend of winter rainfall in the study region. The projected rainfall data also follows the same pattern. Thus, the combination of low rainfall and higher ET value will demand more irrigation requirement for winter crops in West Bengal. The temporal changes of RET on decadal basis and spatial variation of RET for each decade have been observed and discussed in the paper.
文摘The reference evapotranspiration was calculated using Penman-Monteith method proposed. This method was evaluated on data measured by lysimeter in Szarvas experimental station in Hungary. The results of the two methods were in good agreement. However, this method requires an amount of data which is not available at all sites of meteorological measurement. Therefore it was necessary to investigate which elements influencing evapotranspiration are important and which elements are less important. With the help of investigation was indicated that radiation and vapor pressure deficit play important role in determination of reference evapotranspiration. Taking into account this there was two possibilities to calculate evapotranspiration. One of these is to use Penman-Monteith formula with constant wind speed as advised by Allen. Another one is to neglect wind speed data. Both methods were investigated and the method with constant wind speed was found better in a subhumid climatic condition of Hungary.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Public Welfare Research Institutes,CAGS(SK202208,SK202209,SK202005,SK202009)China Geological Survey Project(DD20221752)。
文摘Variations in reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0)) and drought characteristics play a key role in the effect of climate change on water cycle and associated ecohydrological patterns.The accurate estimation of ET_(0) is still a challenge due to the lack of meteorological data and the heterogeneity of hydrological system.Although there is an increasing trend in extreme drought events with global climate change,the relationship between ET_(0) and aridity index in karst areas has been poorly studied.In this study,we used the Penman-Monteith method based on a long time series of meteorological data from 1951 to 2015 to calculate ET_(0)in a typical karst area,Guilin,Southwest China.The temporal variations in climate variables,ET_(0)and aridity index(AI)were analyzed with the Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression to determine the climatic characteristics,associated controlling factors of ET_(0) variations,and further to estimate the relationship between ET_(0) and AI.We found that the mean,maximum and minimum temperatures had increased significantly during the 65-year study period,while sunshine duration,wind speed and relative humidity exhibited significant decreasing trends.The annual ET_(0) showed a significant decreasing trend at the rate of−8.02 mm/10a.However,significant increase in air temperature should have contributed to the enhancement of ET_(0),indicating an“evaporation paradox”.In comparison,AI showed a slightly declining trend of−0.0005/a during 1951-2015.The change in sunshine duration was the major factor causing the decrease in ET_(0),followed by wind speed.AI had a higher correlation with precipitation amount,indicating that the variations of AI was more dependent on precipitation,but not substantially dependent on the ET_(0).Although AI was not directly related to ET_(0),ET_(0)had a major contribution to seasonal AI changes.The seasonal variations of ET_(0)played a critical role in dryness/wetness changes to regulate water and energy supply,which can lead to seasonal droughts or water shortages in karst areas.Overall,these findings provide an important reference for the management of agricultural production and water resources,and have an important implication for drought in karst regions of China.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42277191,No.42377072,No.42107087。
文摘Reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_(0)) is essential for determining crop water requirements and developing irrigation strategies.In this study,ET_(0) was calculated via the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith model,and the spatiotemporal variations in ET_(0) over China from 1960 to 2019 were analyzed.We then quantified the contributions of five driving factors(air temperature,wind speed,relative humidity,sunshine hours,and CO_(2) concentration)to the ET_(0) trends via a detrending experiment.The results revealed that nationwide ET_(0) showed no significant(p>0.05)decreasing trend from 1960 to 2019,with a trend of−8.56×10^(−2)mm a^(−2).The average temperature and wind speed were identified as the dominant factors affecting ET_(0)trends at the national scale.The contributions of the driving factors to the ET_(0) trends were ranked in the following order:average temperature(21.3%)>wind speed(−15.63%)>sunshine hours(−11.99%)>CO_(2) concentration(6.36%)>relative humidity(3.58%).Spatially,the dominant factors influencing the ET_(0) trends varied widely.In the southeastern region,average temperature and sunshine hours dominated the trends of ET_(0),whereas wind speed and average temperature were the dominant factors in the northwestern region.The findings provide valuable insights into the dominant factors affecting ET_(0)trends in China and highlight the importance of considering different driving factors in calculating crop water requirements.
文摘The study planed to identify a suitable alternative to the FAO 56 Penman-Monteith(FAO56PM)equation for calculating reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0))from chosen te mperature and radiation based models utilizing monthly meteorological data from 30 destinations in diverse agro-ecologial regions of the Northeast(NE)India ie,Assam Bengal Plain(ABP),eastern Himalaya(EH),and the northeastern hilly(NEH)region.Radiation-based IRMAK3 most appropriate in the ABP(weighted root mean square deviation,WRMSD=0.17 mm d^(-1),r^(2)=0.98,for Nagrakata),and TURC model being in the first three rank of most of the sites,with the lowest error and highest correlation in NEH(WRMSD=0.10 mm d^(-1),r^(2)=0.92,for Shillong),and EH(WRMSD=0.23 mm d^(-1),r^(2)=-0.95,for Gangtok).Findings reveal that IRMAK3 and TURC models performed equally well and were observed to be the best among selected modets for the majority of stations followed by FAO24 Blaney-Criddle(FAO24BC),and 1957MAKK Pair-wise regession equations were developed for preferred FAO56PM ET_(0) estimates to ET_(0) estimates by alternative methods.Cross-correlation of eighteen chose methods demonstrated that the five equations(i.e.four radiation-and one temperature-based)performed eceptionally well when contrasted with the FAO56PM model,thus being advised for assessing ET_(0)。under limiting data conditions as have yielded a better estimate of ET_(0) with a small error.
文摘Evapotranspiration is an essential component of the hydrological cycle that is of particular interest for water resource planning.Its quantification is helpful in irrigation scheduling,water balance studies,water allocation,etc.Modelling of reference evapotranspiration(ET0)using both gene expression programming(GEP)and artificial neural network(ANN)techniques was done using the daily meteorological data of the Pantnagar region,India,from 2010 to 2019.A total of 15 combinations of inputs were used in developing the ET0 models.The model with the least number of inputs consisted of maximum and minimum air temperatures,whereas the model with the highest number of inputs consisted of maximum air temperature,minimum air temperature,mean relative humidity,number of sunshine hours,wind speed at 2mheight and extra-terrestrial radiation as inputs and with ET0 as the output for all the models.All the GEP models were developed for a single functional set and pre-defined genetic operator values,while the best structure in each ANN model was found based on the performance during the testing phase.It was found that ANN models were superior to GEP models for the estimation purpose.It was evident from the reduction in RMSE values ranging from 2%to 56%during training and testing phases in all the ANN models compared with GEP models.The ANN models showed an increase of about 0.96%to 9.72%of R2 value compared to the respective GEP models.The comparative study of these models with multiple linear regression(MLR)depicted that the ANN and GEP models were superior to MLR models.
基金supported by the Project 2.21 in the framework of the bilateral cooperation between Vietnam and the Wallonie-Bruxelles Government in the period 2019-2021。
文摘This study aims to evaluate the effects of climate change and El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)on reference evapotranspiration(ET_(o))in the climate sub-regions of South Vietnam(SVN)and the role of the related meteorological variables.The trend analysis shows that ET_(o) has been increasing quite clearly,especially during the rainy season.By examining the contribution of meteorological variables to the increase of ET_(o),it is indicated that temperature is the main contributor.Among the meteorological variables that are related to ET_(o),temperature is also the factor that has gained the most significant increase.Analysis of variance reveals that there is no difference in the increase of ET_(o) among the climate sub-regions of SVN.The effect of ENSO on ET_(o) is assessed based on the difference in the mean value of ET_(o) between the El Nino and La Nina phases.The results show that this difference is most obvious from October to May,and the main factor contributing to the increase is not temperature but sunshine hours.The difference in sunshine hours between the warm and cold phases in these months is around one hour per day,contributing about58%-86%to the ET_(o) difference.Further analysis of variance shows that ENSO has different levels of influences on ET_(o) in the climate sub-regions.Compared to the increase in ET_(o) due to climate change over the past 40 years,the ET_(o) difference between El Nino and La Nina phases is many times higher.In addition,since the effect of ENSO on ET_(o) is most obvious in the study area during the dry season,it is much stronger.In order to mitigate the effect of ENSO on drought in this area,monitoring and forecasting meteorological variables that have the main contribution to the variation of ET_(o),including the number of sunshine hours,should be promoted.
文摘In Bosnia and Herzegovina(BiH),the number of weather stations(WS)that are monitoring all climatic parameters required for FAO-56 Penman-Monteith(FAO-PM)equation is limited.In fact,it is of great need and importance to achieve the possibility of calculating reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0))for every WS in BiH(around 150),regardless of the number of climate parameters which they collect.Solving this problem is possible by using alternative equations that require less climatological data for reliable estimation of daily and monthly ET0.The main objective of this study was to validate and determine,compared to the FAO-PM method,a suitable and reliable alternative ET0 equations that are requiring less input data and have a simple calculation procedure,with a special focus on Thornthwaite and Turc as methods previously often used in BiH.To fulfill this objective,12 alternative ET0 calculation methods and 21 locally adjusted versions of same equations were validated against FAO-PM ET0 method.Daily climatic data,recorded at sixteen WS,including mean maximum and minimum air temperature(°C),precipitation(mm),minimum and maximum relative humidity(%),wind speed(m s^(−1))and sunshine hours(h)for the period 1961–2015(55 years)were collected and averaged over each month.Several types of statistical indicators:the determination coefficient(R^(2)),mean bias error(MBE),the variance of the distribution of differences(sd^(2)),the root mean square difference(RMSD)and the mean absolute error(MAE)were used to assess alternative ET_(0) equation performance.The results,confirmed by various statistical indicators,shows that the most suitable and reliable alternative equation for monthly ET0 calculation in BiH is the locally adjusted Trajkovic method.Adjusted Hargreaves-Samani method was the second best performing method.The two most frequently used ET_(0) calculation methods in BiH until now,Thornthwaite and Turc,were ranked low.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40571029)
文摘A non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict the responses of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) to perturbation of four climate variables in Tao'er River Basin of the northeastern China. Mean monthly ET0 and yearly ET0 from 1961 to 2005 were estimated with the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith Equation. A 45-year historical dataset of average monthly maximum/minimum air temperature, mean air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and relative humidity from 15 meteorological stations was used in the analysis. Results show that: 1) Sensitivity coefficients of wind speed, air temperature and sunshine hours were positive except for those of air tem- perature of Arxan Meteorological Station, while those of relative humidity were all negative. Relative humidity was the most sensitive variable in general for the Tao'er River Basin, followed by sunshine hours, wind speed and air tem- perature. 2) Similar to climate variable, monthly sensitivity coefficients exhibit large annual fluctuations. 3) Sensitivity coefficients for four climate variables all showed significant trends in seasonal/yearly series. Also, sensitivity coefficients of air temperature, sunshine hours and wind speed all showed significant trends in spring. 4) Among all sensitiv- ity coefficients, the average yearly sensitivity coefficient of relative humidity was highest throughout the basin and showed largest spatial variability. Longitudinal distribution of sensitivity coefficients for air temperature, relative hu- midity and sunshine hours was also found, which was similar to the distribution of the three climate variables.
